Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 7/8/22 Kyle Anzalone on Recent Developments in Ukraine

Episode Date: July 11, 2022

This week on Antiwar Radio, Kyle Anzalone of the Libertarian Institute and Antiwar.com joins Scott to discuss the status of the war in Ukraine. Anzalone explains how fighting has evolved in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. He then moves down to Kherson in southern Ukraine as well as Snake Island off of the country’s southwest coast. They touch on the absurd amount of weapons and money Western governments have been sending to Ukraine as well as the accuracy of reported body counts. Finally, they talk about the lack of any real prospect for peace, and how the war will likely evolve as it grinds on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For Pacifica Radio, July 10th, 2022, I'm Scott Horton. This is Anti-War Radio. All right, y'all and welcome to the show. It is Anti-War Radio. I'm your host, Scott Horton. I'm the editorial director of anti-war.com, an editorial director of the book, Hotter Than the Sun, Time to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. You can find my full interview archive, more than 5,700 of them now going back to 2003 at Scott Horton.org and at YouTube.com slash Scott Horton Show. And you can follow me on Twitter at Scott Horton Show.

All right, I'd like to introduce to you all, my good friend, Kyle Anselone, opinion editor of anti-war.com and host of the podcast, Conflore. of interest. Welcome the show. Kyle, how are you doing? Doing great, Scott. Thanks so much for having me. Very happy to have you on the show here. And really appreciate all the great work that you're doing at anti-war.com and at the Libertarian Institute as well. And so I was hoping we can catch up on the war in Ukraine. The last few weeks here on the LA show, we've been focusing on Yemen in the campaign to pressure Congress to pass H-South.

J. Rez 87, the war powers resolution to end that war in Yemen. By the way, that's 833 stop war for everybody to help get involved in that. But it's time we catch up on the Russia-Ukraine conflict there and America's role in it all. So I guess, first of all, Kyle, can you give us an update on more or less, you know, big picture, the battlefield situation in eastern Ukraine now? Yeah. So the Russian, Russia continues to advance, but it seems to be at a fairly slower pace. They, in the past week, have, I guess, gained in control the entire Lujansk region, which if you have the Dombas, it's made up of the Donesk, which is the southern area, and then the Lujansk, which is north of that.

And the report is they control all of that now. And that's been the case for about a week. A lot of times, it seems, you know, like the conflict. Syria or something like that, Scott, where they, you know, announced they've taken the city and then there's fighting around the city for another weed. Sometimes the Ukrainian forces make, you know, some limited gains back or something like that. But ultimately, you know, Russia secures it over the course of about a week or so.

And that seems to have now happened in the entire Lujansk. Now, there was some reporting that Putin gave a speech, you know, claiming victory in Lujansk and telling the soldiers, you know, to rest up and things. like that. And some people reported that as Russia was taking an operational pause, and that doesn't really seem to be the case at all. I think it was just Putin giving a victory speech. Fighting goes on in the Donnesque region and then in the south of Ukraine as well, the region above the Crimean Peninsula where Russia has extended into some Ukrainian territory. Zelensky claimed yesterday that they had used the U.S. provided or the U.K. provided long range rockets to take out some

Russian positions that had allowed either Ukraine to make some gains or to prevent Russia from being able to launch an offensive depending on what, you know, what second you're listening to Ukrainian president Zomir Zelensky. So it seems like, you know, the fights going on in the east and in the south of Ukraine still. Russia also pulled back from Snake Island. You know, this has been kind of a big talking point around the war of what's happening on Snake Island because when Russia sees it in the initial days of the war, the Ukraine launched somewhat propaganda campaign about the soldier's determination before they surrendered. But about a week ago, Russia announced they were withdrawing from that island. Russia said it was because they wanted to have a show of good faith that they were allowing great. to leave Ukrainian ports.

Ukraine said it was their constant targeting of Russian forces on that island that caused Russia to withdraw from that position. And I do think maybe Ukraine had a better point there because they have launched several attacks on the Russian forces on that island. It doesn't really seem like there's anywhere to take cover from Ukrainian rockets or drones on that island. And so it may not just been strategic for Russia to continue to hold on to it. this point. And so they withdrew. And the Ukrainians have now raised their flag on that island again

and have soldiers deployed there. All right. Now, a few weeks ago when I talked with Colonel McGregor, I said, well, look, they controlled the city of Arquiv there in, I guess right at the border of the Lahansk province. And then they withdrew and the Ukrainians retook it. And so maybe that means the Russians are on the run. And McGregor says, no, you don't understand. What's happening in the war is not a matter of just taking territory. It's a matter of the Russians slowly grinding the Ukrainian army down to a nub and one way or the other. And if that means strategic retreat here or there, that's consistent with the goal of destroying the military of the other side, which is the real goal. On the other hand, they have created, it seems like their first priority was to create

this so-called land bridge from Russia across the entire south of the Donbass region there in order to connect Crimea, you know, officially all the way to Russia there and secure those freshwater resources. And then according to some battle maps I saw, Kyle, it looks like they have solidified control not just over the city of Kersan, which is to the northwest of the Crimea peninsula there. Sort of the New Orleans of the Nipa River, it looks like to me, the biggest major port city at the bottom of this major north-south river. emptying into the Black Sea there. But it looks like they've made quite a bit of progress moving west from there.

And they're only, I think, two towns away from Odessa. And I did read that there was at least some strikes on Odessa, although I'm not certain where from if it was from ships at sea in the Black Sea or what. So I wonder if there's much reporting on that part of the front there and whether you have an indication of whether there is a major assault on Odessa. coming soon or whether the Russians are going to, you know, stay east of those couple of towns there and just take Kurson and leave it at that? Or does anybody know? Sorry to ask you to predict the future, but I just wonder if there's actually any indications on the ground of what may be coming

there. Well, you know, leaving the position at Snake Island may suggest that Russia isn't going to move on Odessa because I know they had suggested that having that island would be strategic. in taking Odessa, but at the same time, the, you know, Ukrainians and the Americans and the British are saying that they're in no hurry to negotiate whatsoever. And so this war is going to continue to drag on. And I would assume the longer it goes, the further west that Russia is going to go and they will eventually reach Odessa. But, you know, predicting that the timetable is, I feel like, kind of difficult, in part because, you know, you had to remember that Russia really isn't fighting Ukraine here. They are fighting a NATO military at this point with the long

range rockets and artillery that Ukraine has. I mean, maybe they're missing some aspects of it, like the Air Force. But now they're even taught, I guess they are sending air defense systems to Ukraine, Norwegian air defense systems to Ukraine. And so I suspect that it's going to take Russia and it come at heavy cost from Russia to take Ukrainian territory. The more weapons, the West pours in. They're training Ukrainian forces all over Europe. I wrote for the Institute this week. The New York Times reported on several U.S. Special Forces veterans who are training Ukrainians near the front lines and helping them plan operations using all this new military equipment that they're familiar with from the wars in the Middle East. And so I suspect that Ukraine is

going to put up a major fight and deal blows to Russia, which likely slow. any kind of plans that Russia actually has to take these major cities, especially Odessa, when, you know, I suspect that Russia will try to take it because if you're going to go to war in Ukraine and fight this long, drawn-out conflict, I would imagine they would want to have a lot of control on what happens in Ukraine in the future. And I think cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea would allow Moscow to have that control. And so I guess strategically, they would really want it. But it's going to come at a big cost with the amount. of weapons that Ukraine is getting.

Yeah. Now, I saw this statistic this morning, but it was just based on claims by the Kiev government about the casualty rates and, you know, amount of equipment they've destroyed on the Russian side. And they had the casualties up near 30,000 or something like that. I forgot the number exactly. But I wonder if you have any real indication. Ballpark estimate, what sounds credible to you or not, about how many military have died on each side? And especially how many civilian Ukrainians have died in the war so far? Do you know? I know that the number of civilians killed is in the thousands, over 3,000, I think, was the last

time I saw the U.N. number, but I feel like the U.N. has not kept up with it as well as they did in maybe the early days of the war, where it seemed like they maybe had a pretty realistic death count, so I'm guessing that's going to take some time to really come in. As far as the Ukrainian or the Russian side, it's just too hard to tell. For a long time, Ukraine was essentially denying that they had any casualties or very few. And then, you know, we had emissions from the Ukrainian government that they had 500 soldiers dying a day, which, you know, would suggest numbers in the tens of thousands dead so far in this war. But at the same time, you have to assume anything coming out of the Ukrainian government is propaganda looking to get Western support. And so maybe after, you know, looking tough for a few months, now they have to start, feel like they had to.

start looking weak, are trying to get some more sympathy from the West in order to get more weapons shipments or something, you know, that's maybe the propaganda calculation. The 30,000, it seems really high as far as the Russian casualties go. I think in Newsweek, I read an article from Will Arkin, not that long ago where he was basically saying that he believed the 20,000 casualty number. And so if that's correct, then the 30,000 would now make correct. skeptical of all that, but I suppose that it's going to probably be years after the war that we finally understand how many people really died in this thing. Yeah. And, you know, I talked to him right

around the time that he wrote that, and he certainly believed that that was true, but he didn't seem to be applying much skepticism to those claims. And the way I put it to him, and this is fairly early in the war, maybe a month into it, my jeez, 20,000 dead. You'd have to show me a pretty big battlefield full of smoldering Russian tanks for me to believe that. I mean, that's a lot of guys to die when we lost 7,000 in Iraq and Afghanistan, you know, which we're fighting insurgencies, you know, in their neighborhoods and not, you know, set peace battles, but still, it doesn't sound right to me, but, you know, I really don't know. I, you know, and I agree with you, but at the same time, Scott, I will say, you know, they've taken down at least one Russian troop transport plane and a couple of ships. And so, you know, the casualties stack up pretty quick from events like that, too. And if, you know, maybe they'd taken down a couple troop transport planes.

I mean, you could be looking at like a couple thousand troops just right there and also from the ship. So the numbers could be higher than they seem if you're just, you know, looking at taints and things like that. But maybe with the transports and things that the numbers get a little bit higher. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know about thousands on a plane, but there have been reports of hundreds lost that way on the Russian side. Sorry, hang on just one second. Hey, guys, anybody who signs up to listen to this show by way of Patreon will be invited to join the Reddit group.

And I'm going to start posting stuff over there more. That's patreon.com slash Scott Horton's show. Thanks. Hey, y'all, libertosbella.com is where you get Scott Horton's show and Libertarian Institute shirts, sweatshirts, mugs, and stickers and things, including the great top lobstas designs as well. See, that way it says on your shirt, why you're so smart. Libertas Bella

from the same great folks who bring you ammo.com for all your ammunition needs, too. That's Libertasbella.com You guys check it out. This is so cool. The great Mike Swanson's new book is finally out. He's been working on this thing for years. And I admit, I haven't read it yet.

I'm going to get to it as soon as I can, but I know you guys are going to want to beat me to it. It's called Why the Vietnam War? Nuclear bombs and nation building in Southeast Asia, 1945 through 61 and as he explains on the back here all of our popular culture and our retellings and our history and our movies are all about the height of the American war there in say 1964 through 1974 but how do we get there why is this all Harry Truman's fault find out in why the Vietnam War by the great Mike Swanson available now so you mentioned the weapons and the The differences in weapons, the longer this goes on, the more of the promises about, oh, no, we're going to keep them at defensive weapons like javelin missiles that have very short range and obviously can't be used to attack inside Russia and that kind of thing. And then those restrictions

start falling away. It doesn't sound like people are calling for a no-fly zone anymore. I thought, you know, maybe those calls would start picking back up again, but it seems like people finally have dropped that. And so a no-fly zone is some magical force field rather than a call to direct aerial combat with Russian jets and anti-aircraft missiles on the ground, including inside Russia in order to enforce it. It seems like they're over that, but can you give us an update on the overall amount of billions of dollars that have been spent by the U.S. and allies, for that matter, and give us a little bit more about the changes in the weapons?

I know that they're getting bigger and more sophisticated with longer range. so forth. Yeah. The Pentagon this week put out a statement, I think, saying that they've transferred 6.9 billion in weapons in total to Ukraine since the war started. And then I think that's about $8 billion total since the start of the Biden administration. But when you try to calculate the total number, it's definitely in the tens of billions. I find it hard to actually figure it out because like a part of the $40 billion aid bill that Congress passed was meant to refill some stockpiles of weapons that had already been sent and also transfer some weapons to countries like Poland that had sent weapons to Ukraine. And so, you know, to figure out all the accounting

here is going to be very difficult. But tens of billions of dollars have definitely gone to Ukraine and increasingly sophisticated, as you point out, Dave DeCamp at anti-war.com recently covered the $820 million package that was approved, I think about a week ago now, just after the 4th of July. And that includes Norwegian air defense systems. And so these are going to give Ukraine increased ability to, you know, shoot down Russian missiles or planes or things like that. No Patriot missile systems or anything quite so provocative yet, Scott.

But, you know, these are major, you know, Western weapons systems that are. being transferred to Ukraine. I think most importantly, and what at least the Ukrainians are saying are the only thing really making a big difference on the battlefield are the long range rocket systems. The U.S. has sent the Hymras, which have a range of, well, they can fire rockets up to 200 miles, but the ammunition that the U.S. is providing Ukraine for those systems is at 50 miles. and then the U.K. is sending the U.S. made M270 rocket systems with also a range of 50 miles. Now, the White House was very insistent on getting an insurance from Kiev that they would not use the Himras to carry out attacks inside of Russia, where the U.K. defense minister, Ben Wallace, has actually suggested that, you know, Ukraine should use Western weapons to carry out attacks. inside of Russia. And I don't think the UK got that same assurance from Ukraine that they

want to use the weapons for those reasons. And there have been attacks carried out inside of Russia within the past week in territory, less than 50 miles from the Ukrainian border. So, you know, this is going on. I also covered a story. It was first reported by the Times of London, but they have a couple of Ukrainian special forces operators saying that they carried out missions inside of Russia. And there certainly have been explosions and people killed inside of Russia by either Ukrainian missiles or sabotage efforts. And so it does make sense that, you know, they are carrying out some attacks inside of Russia. And even inside of Belarus now, too, where this past week, Lukashenko said that their air defense systems intercepted, I believe, three Ukrainian

missiles that were directed at Belarusian military facility. Man. And now, you mentioned about the grain in the context of Snake Island there, but can you kind of elaborate on the problem with the grain? Of course, both sides are blaming each other and all of this kind of thing. But what's the truth of who's keeping the grain from the hungry people of the global South here, Kyle? Everyone, I think, because essentially only Turkey is actually really pushing negotiations here and I guess the UN as well. But in the U.S., you mentioned that people seem to have given up on the no-fly zone.

But this week I read probably two or three mainstream news articles, opinion pieces, saying that the U.S. needs to, you know, use the NATO military capabilities to break the Russian blockade of the Ukrainian ports. And so this is, I think probably the same level of provocation as enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine would be to sink the Russian Black fleet, which is what they're talking about doing there. So there are water mines that are an issue. Turkey says that they are mapped out, and so they should be able to ensure that they can safely escort cargo ships, civilian cargo ships, to Ukrainian ports. And Russia has said that they would give safe passage, meaning that Russia says they would

guarantee they would not attack any grain ships going to Ukrainian ports. Now, Russia has spoken with Ankara on this issue and seems willing to move forward. And Kiev has just outright said that they're not going to engage in these thoughts. And so, you know, you could blame the Russian war for it because obviously the grain was moving in and out of Ukraine before the Russian invasion. But Russia is saying that, you know, they're willing to work out a deal that allows them to carry out their war and for the grain to be able to leave Blatsea ports. And Ukraine is just unwilling to engage in those conversations. And the U.S. doesn't seem willing at all.

And any of their conversation has been to give Ukraine increased anti-ship capabilities like harpoon missiles. I think it was another NATO state that actually gives. gave Ukraine the launcher, but we have provided them with the harpoon missiles that could sink Russian ships, which I understand are kind of very dangerous and unpredictable missiles that could cause a real crisis that they were actually used by Ukraine. I think Ukraine has mainly used their Turkish-made drones to sink Russian ships. I'm not sure how many ships they've actually targeted with the harpoon missiles that they've received them. Man, all right, well, let me ask you this. When was the last time Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke with Sergey Lavrov, the

former minister of Russia there? That would be February 15th, which is incredible, because as we're recording this, Scott, I believe both men are in Bali, Indonesia right now for the G20 conference. And it would be an absolutely great time to have some thoughts. But instead, I think Blinken is only playing on speaking with the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, which I don't expect to go well because the U.S. held that real provocative meeting. The FBI and MI5 in London held a joint conference, which they were saying that China's the biggest threat to the world and sabotaging all Western business and things like that. Well, yeah, pretty hard to get them to help us negotiate with Russia when I guess the Americans don't want to negotiate with Russia anyway,

and then they're in the middle of accusing the Chinese of a bunch of other stuff right now, which as far as them, what, hacking into American corporations? operations secrets or whatever if that's the accusation sounds like it's probable anyway i don't know what are the specific accusations there by the way there uh there was a whole lot of you know specific accusation that but basically that's it you know that china is trying to steal western innovation and so you know some of it's just outright IP theft like they once apple puts out an iPhone uh once they get in china they'll take it apart figure out how to make it and make their own iPhone for a quarter of the price or something like that.

But then also there is some of this claims of hacking and information warfare and espionage to try to, you know, some Chinese student is coming to an American university and the Americans are alleging that that student really isn't there to study engineering, but rather to know what Caltech is doing in their engineering department and, you know, figuring out what kind of innovation is happening and bringing that information back to China. Yeah, sounds like making the whole world wealthier to me, but anyway, talking with Kyle Anzalone from anti-war.com. Now, let me ask you this.

Before the war started, the presumption on a lot of people's parts was that the warring will last long as far as the Russian military versus the Ukrainian military. And I think they made, the Russians made their own mistakes, the way they invaded from 20 different directions at once or whatever at the beginning there and of course the ukrainian side has benefited greatly from american and other allied weapons pouring into the country since then so surprisingly as we're recording this conversation about a third of the way through june here the war is still between the ukrainian military and state uh with against the russians and now um i saw that I forgot if it was a congressman or a senator was saying what he wants to see is an insurgency

in Ukraine right down to hand-to-hand combat kind of thing. In other words, really embracing the critics cliche that you want to fight this war to the last Ukrainian. And then these American congressmen are essentially saying, yeah, exactly, let's do that. And so, in other words, from that point of view anyway, it sounds like the war could go on, you know, essentially for the rest of the year, maybe more than that. And also, of course, it was notable that Henry Kissinger at the Davos Forum sort of read the riot act to these people, at least as far as, you know, Kissinger goes, and said, listen, guys, we've got to wrap this war up in the next couple of months here. We can't afford to have this drag on and the unintended knock-on effects from this level

of confrontation with Russia here. Come on. And, you know, he may be the only one who could speak that kind of sense to them from that position. So, but I wonder, you know, in all your examination of the news coverage and so forth, if you have a very good taste for what the consensus is in D.C. about whether they listen to him at all, for example, or whether their plan is still that even if it takes another year before the Russians, completely destroy the Ukrainian state and another two or ten years of insurgency by Ukrainians against the occupying Russian forces after that. That's what America wants to see. They don't want to talk with Sergei Lavrov ever again. They want this war to last indefinitely? Or is there any kind of

real debate going on in D.C.? Never mind out here in the country where nobody cares what we think at all, unless we're Israelis or Saudis. I mean, not in the halls of power. certainly. If you look at what happened, the Western leaders just met in Europe for the G7 and then for the NATO summit in Madrid. And every statement was, you know, we are prepared for long conflict. We're digging in for the long war. We're prepared to do what is necessary to defeat Russia and Ukraine. Michael Tracy was at the NATO summit. And he said that the Turkish president Erdogan was the only one that even mentioned talks of all the Western leaders. And so, you know, this is kind of telling that Turkey seems to be essentially the only country on planet Earth that

has any interest in diffusing the tensions between these two countries and is trying to play an active role in doing it. And so, yeah, I think it's going to drag on for a long time. You mentioned the insurgency there. And I do think that's the plan ultimately is, you know, to let this turn into the insurgency that Zabindu Bersenski talked about in 2014 when he said, you know, to bleed Russia fighting hand to hand in Ukrainian streets. However, they have been able to put up a crazy fight against Russia. But, you know, really the amount of Western weapons have flowed into Ukraine since this conflict started. I don't think was really predicted by anyone, Scott, and certainly not in Moscow either because it has been just an insane level.

I mean, if you look at what we're talking about, tens of millions of dollars going to Ukraine in four or five months, This is, you know, mates Ukraine, one of the largest and most well-funded militaries on the planet Earth. And certainly at this point is probably outmatching at least what Russia was on track to spend in 2022 or have planned to spend in 2022. And all the Ukrainian forces are receiving Western training at this point. You know, they're being shipped out of Ukraine. They're trained in Germany, the UK, Poland, another country sent back in. And so and all these Ukrainian forces were training in the past year since Biden took office. Ukraine was engaging in a lot of and hosting NATO war games.

So all these troops are Western trained. And, you know, people I think are making it out that Ukraine is just like this little scrappy army that's fighting back, you know, with their AK-47s or something like that. Like it's the Soviets invading Afghanistan. But really, this is the Russians invading Ukraine, which has all. almost a modern NATO military at this point, a large population, massive conscription. Just this week, the Ukrainian military announced that if you're a young man in Ukraine, you cannot even leave your region without approval from the local recruitment board. And so they have millions and millions of young men to throw into the meat grinder here.

And, you know, as dark as it sounds, you know, to fight Russia to the last. Ukrainian, they're really talking about doing that at this point. There's no interest in negotiations at this point. They know they could keep providing Ukraine with military equipment. And look, even if the 10 Ukrainians that are operating the long-range missile system end up getting killed by a Russian missile, they know that hopefully they'll fire a couple missiles before and kill a couple dozen Russian troops and maybe destroy some Russian military equipment. And they view all those interactions as a positive tradeoff for the West, right? Because the Ukrainians are dying, but ultimately there are taking Russia down, bleeding Russia. This is, you know, costing them a lot of

blood and money to lose all this military equipment. And it's all a victory for them. And so I think the longer this strides on, the more of a victory will be seen for the West. And I do assume that this is going to turn into an insurgency. It was Senator Blumenthal and Graham. We're just in Kiev and talked with Zelensky. And another thing they're pushing, guys, to make Russia a state sponsor or terrorism. And they're walking around Ukraine and going, well, I sure would feel terrorized if I live here. And that's the argument that they're using. I think there's a very good chance, actually, that they're going to pass this bill.

And that's going to put a heavy round of sanctions on Russia, that even if this war worked to end, there's no way to really mend ties between Washington and Moscow. in any way, reestablished normal relations, once Russia's on the terrorism list and faces all the sanctions that they already face. That's it. We're out of time. I really appreciate your time on the show. Everybody, that's the great Kyle Anselaun, opinion editor at anti-war.com.

Thanks, Kyle. Thanks, Scott. And that's it for Anti-War Radio for this morning. I'm your host, Scott Horton. I'm editor of the new book, Hotter Than the Sun. Time to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. And you find my full interview archive at Scott Horton. Horton.org and at YouTube.com slash Scott Horton's show. Follow me on Twitter at Scott Horton's show.

I'm here every Sunday morning from 9 to 9.30 on KPFK 90.7 FM in L.A. See you next week.