Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 8/24/23 Nasser Arrabyee on the State of Yemen Today

Episode Date: August 28, 2023

Nasser Arrabyee joins Scott again to give an update on Yemen. The ceasefire has held for more than a year, but there is still much for the various factions to negotiate. Arrabyee gives an account of where things stand on the ground, and then the two take a step back and look at the broader geopolitical context.  Discussed on the show: “‘Al-Qaeda’ attack kills secessionist commander and three fighters in Yemen” (Al Jazeera) Nasser Arrabyee is a Yemeni journalist based in Sana’a, Yemen. He is the owner and director of Yemen-Now.com. You can follow him on Twitter @narrabyee. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott’s interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, y'all, welcome to the Scott Horton Show. I'm the director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of anti-war.com, author of the book, Pools Aaron, Time to End the War in Afghanistan, and the brand new, enough already, time to end the war on terrorism. And I've recorded more than 5,500 interviews since 2004. almost all on foreign policy and all available for you at scothorton dot for you can sign up the podcast feed there and the full interview archive is also available at youtube dot com slash scott horton show all right you guys on the line once again i've got nasser arby our friend the journalist from sena yemen with an update how you doing nassar very good thank you very much for having me

Okay, great. Yeah, happy to have you here. So there's so much to talk about. First of all, we're more than a year into the ceasefire here. And I gather that the heavy fighting has stopped the Saudi land force and their airstrikes and the bulk of the war is over. And yet we don't have a peace agreement yet. I was wondering if you can tell us, why not? well it's you know it's not um we can say we are not in a in a truth but we are in a truth so um it's truth without truth we can say um the agreement needs a lot of things to be done first because there are a lot of bodies, local bodies and regional bodies and international bodies in the thing. So it's not easy. But I can say now in brief that there is strong intentions to end the war in Yemen. This is the most important thing that I can.

I can say now because Saudi Arabia now is strongly willing to end this war for a lot of reasons, and the most important of which is the so-called 2030 vision of Mohammed bin Salman. So I think now it's okay. I can tell you now that last week there was a delegation from Oman. Oman is still mediating between Houthi and Saudis to end the war. Of course they came here and they stayed about two days here and this week. And they left, and of course what we understood from their visit to Sana'a is to talk about the final things and the final touches about this agreement.

But they came back to tell the Saudis and the other bodies what Houthi said. Of course, Udi is still insisting on his demands, the most important of which is paying the salaries from the oil. Beying the salaries from the oil and gas, the Yemeni oil and gas revenues. Saudi Arabia, of course, agreed on this. They said, okay, but now they are talking about how this can be implemented. Because it's, you know, they need a lot of things to be done first. Because there are a lot of arguments about where to both the money and how much we should be. should we pay from this month or the 10 years I mean the eight years of the war for

salaries and so there are a lot of things and the most important of of of of of it all is is what or can that the oil and revenue can an oil and just resumed being exported from Yemen because now the oil is stopped of course because who he could or was able to stop them to stop the Saudi-backed government to export any oil until they they agree on how to pay the salaries and how to end the war so I think now things are promising and things are optimistic and things are optimistic because of what has been done so far

because we have now, we have been in a truce without a truth for more than one year. This is a strong indication that they want, or Saudis in particular, want to end the war. But don't, we shouldn't forget that there is a lot of international players and regional players like Iran, United States, and also United Arab, UAA, and also the local players. It's not only Houthi. We have at least five big factions who are involved in the world. So all these things tell us about the complications and the difficulties in face of having an abuse agreement.

Well, now, so can you tell us about the role of the Americans here? and Lender King and the rest. We had some reports that he was going over there to make things more difficult rather than less. Unfortunately, the U.S. is playing

a role or trying to play a role and pressuring on Saudi Arabia. And maybe this role is the big thing that made it difficult to move forward because simply

last April they were almost at the end of the war and they were almost in the final touches of this agreement and on April when the Saudi ambassador came to Sana'a and that was a big

a big break throw and people were very optimistic everywhere But the United States came and said, no, unfortunately. This is a big thing. It is very clear. They said no because it will be a big victory for Houthi, which would mean it will be a big victory for Iran. This is what the United States simply and bluntly said, unfortunately, which means

things, the talks is told from April until early this year, until early this month. So the United States is playing a role that we can't describe as an obstacle, unfortunately, Because they mix it up with their problem with Iran and their negotiations and their talks with Iran and nuclear things and all these sort of things. So we hope that if the United States help positively, I think things will move even faster. Well, now, let's talk a little bit about back to the oil there real quick. I had read that part of the dispute was where the money comes from. You mentioned that the Houthis wanted the salaries paid from Houthi oil. And I had read that part of the dispute was the Saudis had said they would pay the salaries,

but out of their government revenue that they already had from selling their oil or whatever. And that the Houthis were objecting to that because they were. trying to get things, you know, back to normal, essentially, where that money is coming from domestic oil sales. How big of an obstacle is that? Well, this is the big thing, of course, because I hope your audience knows that now the Saudi back government can fix any drop of oil or gas. Why?

Because Houthi would strike them. And he did strike them before. So the oil thing is a big obstacle because Saudi Arabia wants – they don't want to talk about this because the oil thing means unified Yemen, because the oil is in the south. right and there is there is STC in the south there is the separatist in the south that's the southern transitional council who said exactly they just said they just said why why should I mean that the oil is is not nothing thing it is it is just the happen, why the Houthi is conditioning the oil?

Why the Houthis are putting the oil as a condition? So it's not easy. And the United Arab Emirates is supporting this STC, this group, the group of separators. So it's difficult because of these things. When we talk about oil, we talk about unified. Yemen, and the problem between Saudi Arabia and UAA comes here, because the calculations of United Arab Emirates is completely different from the calculations of Saudis. So, the oil thing, I mean, the paying the salaries from the oil would mean,

Yemen is still united, and would also, that would mean also that the United States is out of the game. And Yemen is united. But this is not easy also to realize because it's the big problem from the beginning. Not easy. And now, Nasser, are you saying that the Saudis would prefer to go ahead and have a unified state, even under the Houthis to deal with? But the UAE would rather break off the south. Is that right?

Yes. Yes, we can say this as a simple thing. Because, you know, the UAE feels that it will be out of the game if Yemen is united or remains united. because they want the south because they have a lot of interest in the south they have the boats

the sea boats and the islands the islands like in the in the straight of Babalmandam and also the Sukhattra Islands which is the most fascinating place and also

very profitable place and very and tourist attraction and the UAA wants it to be to be for it for forever maybe All right now

you talked about how the Americans just can't bear the fact that they lost this war to the Houthis who were Shiites and friends with Iran and to a certain degree I guess backed by Iran what can you tell us about Iran's actual role on the

ground in Yemen as compared to, for example, the narrative? Well, Iran is also winning. Yes, Iran is winning. We can say this. Iran is winning because they are in harmony with Houthis. They are supporting Houthis, and Houthi is receiving support from them,

political, media, and maybe technical things for weapons or, yes, this is something that can't be denied, of course. And Iran is using this also as a leverage in their talks with the United States about the nuclear agreement between it and the United States. So Iran is winning, of course. But to see United States coming to Yemen in this way, in this blunt way, and say, no, don't end the war now, I think this is stupidity. I mean, a United States should play a soft role and should be more diplomatic and should be more diplomatic and should should should look for its interest in a good way, not at the expense of whole Yemen being killed and destroyed and bombed all the time

because it's not going to help me in the talks with Iran. This is bad things, and this is something that this is unacceptable and unreasonable, of course. Of course, everyone would say, okay, the United States should care for its interest, but not this way. I mean, it should be there, and it should be, it should play in a good way, in a smart way, not this, not this stupid way, no. Yeah. Oh, man. Yeah, it seems like, you know, the narrative all along has been that that was the reason for the war is because of Iran's friendship with the Houthis.

when, if you go back to 2015, even Obama himself admitted on tape. I mean, there's video of this of Obama admitting that the Iranians tried to warn the Houthis not to sack the capital city, because that'll provoke the Saudis into starting a war. And yet, that's been the excuse for the war anyway, is that somehow the Houthis are the puppets of the Iranians? Exactly. And Houthi did it out of their world, of course. Houthi did it, and they said he should stay away, and he did it.

Yes, of course. Iran itself didn't want Houthi to seize the capital, yes. All right. Now, let's talk a little bit about al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. I know that you say that, and you said for years there, that the division between al-Qaeda and ISIS in Yemen is much less than, say, for example, in Syria, where they had a real rivalry after they split in 2013. But you say essentially all the Salafi bin Ladenite-type fighters in Yemen,

they haven't been disbanded. They were essentially integrated into the UAE's militia there back quite a few years ago now. What's the current state of AQAP-S slash ISIS on the Arabian Peninsula there in Yemen? Yes. Kida, ISIS, let me also keep saying that. Kaida, Isis, is almost one thing. It's a floyd thing. It's very flawed.

So it's almost one thing because of a lot of things, because of the Floyd situation in Yemen as a whole. So it's one thing, almost one thing, not like the other countries, yes, because of the social and tribal structure of Yemen. And because of what's going on now, because of the war, and because of the history of Biladin and the people going and coming to Afghanistan and all these things. So it's still a big winner. It is winning by day now.

It is almost reimagining now, because in the South, because. There is also some kind of tension, if not a big conflict, I would say, tension between Saudi brooksies and Emirates. So, Gaida is still being used for this or that body. To be specific, it is more used by the Emirates, because they have many factions here, the so-called the Giants, the Giants Brigades. This is also militants, jihadis, Salafis, and they have a lot of names, they have camps, they have this. them so it's being used to to pressure Saudis or to pressure this or to threaten US or to you know it is being used and it is it is now re-imaging you know many many

attacks happened recently against soldiers against soldiers in the South and many soldiers killed and injured because of, because of, you know, in ambushes or in operations. So they, they are emerging and they are receiving more support more than before. Because they need them now, unfortunately. Hang on just one second. Hey, y'all, the audio book of my book, enough already. Time to End the War on Terrorism is finally done. Yes, of course, read by me.

It's available at Audible, Amazon, Apple Books, and soon on Google Play and whatever other options there are out there. It's my history of America's War on Terrorism from 1979 through today. Give it a listen and see if you agree. It's time to just come home. Enough already. Time to end the war on terrorism. The audiobook. Hey, guys, I've had a lot of great webmasters over the years, but the team at Expanddesigns.com,

have by far been the most competent and reliable. Harley Abbott and his team have made great sites for the show and the Institute, and they keep them running well, suggesting and making improvements all along. Make a deal with Expanddesigns.com for your new business or news site. They will take care of you. Use the promo code Scott and save $500. That's expanddesigns.com. Man, I wish I was in school so I could drop out and sign up for Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom

instead. Tom has done such a great job on putting together a classical curriculum for everyone from junior high schoolers on up through the postgraduate level. And it's all very reasonably priced. Just make sure you click through from the link in the right margin at Scott Horton.org. Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom, Real history, real economics, real education. Well, now, Nasser, there's this piece in Al Jazeera from the 10th about how some Al-Qaeda guys killed some STC guys, one of the leaders of the STC, Al-Said, and three of his fighters were killed. And so I wonder, those are UAE sock puppets fighting amongst each other there, huh? Yes, this is the one who was killed is, you know, someone I know very well in person.

You know, he was killed because he was in al-Qaeda, he was in ISIS, he was with the Saudis, he was with, he was with everyone, right? He kept changing with everyone, you know, just the one who bays more, he works with him. So, unfortunately, he was killed last month or early this month because of these internal disputes over money, over influence. over women's over yes and they said I mean al-Qaeda they they they said al-Qaeda was behind this and that and and this is how it happens this is how it happens unfortunately in the in the south when when things move forward towards peace or towards a solution they come and fight each other yes yeah now um when it comes to the peace talks i wonder how much of a difference it's made

that china brokered this new peace between iran and saudi arabia i think we were all pretty hopeful that that would give the negotiations a real boost here has it at all yes i think it's it's okay that uh the things of the relations between the u.s uh between between Saudi Arabia and Iran are now getting better and better. And the first minister was in Rio the last week, and of course the embassy is already there. The Iranian embassy is in real now, and the Saudi embassy will be there in Tehran. And so maybe president, the president, Abraham Rahisi, the Iranian president is, is is being invited now to Riyadh.

So, and this is why I'm telling you we are optimistic. Because Saudi Arabia wants to guarantee that it's okay with Houthis because Saudis now is talking only with Houthis. And anyone would say, this is bad things. This is something that would not succeed. But I think it would because the most important, the most player, the most important actor is Houthi now for Saudis. Because Saudis want only to guarantee their security. And the one who would guarantee their security, Saudi security, is Houthis, not anyone else.

But Saudis want to start with Iran because they want a big idea. a big guarantee, which is Iran, to be over Houthis or to be a guarant to be a guarant for Houthis. So, and this is why, of course, this is, this is among other things between the Saudis and Iran, but we are now focusing on Yemen. So Saudis wants to do everything with Iran, then it would do everything with Houthis and then if things if there are more things in Yemen Saudis would not care too much

about if Yemen for example if the Yemenis if Yemenis keep killing each other Saudis would not care too much as long as it is secure as long as its borders are okay this is how

one can say about what's going on Well, and going back to spring of 22, it's clear that this is why they decided to make peace. It wasn't because of China or anything. It was because the Houthis kept blowing up their refineries. And somebody in a white gown apparently went to MBS and said, enough of this. You have to begin to negotiate here because we're not going to, there's apparently no way that they could defend themselves from these drone attacks.

and his war is driving Saudi into the ground. So at the end of the day, that's what happened. He lost the war. The Houthis won. Exactly. You know, Houthis can threaten, and they have already threatened, UAE and Saudis. So now they, if they want to protect themselves,

So from these threats, they have to talk with Houthis. And this is why they have been talking with Houthis for one year now. And it's only the United States who stopped them in April. And Saudis at the time wanted to prepare for more things with Iran. So they said to the U.S., okay, okay, okay. when they said, no, don't pay the salaries, because this will be a big victory for Houthis, which would mean a big victory for Iran. And Saudis said, okay, okay, we'll leave it.

We'll leave it there. And they left there. But now they resume. And Houthi now is still having the upper hand. Who is now threatening? Houthi. Houthi is saying, no, our, our patient. is running out. Our patience is running out. Houthi now, saying our, our patients is running out.

We can't stay under blockade. If there is no bombing, okay, but blockade is also bombing. Blockade is also killing people. Blockade is starving people. So we can't, we can't stand, we can't also bear the blockade. So, Hockey is still threatening because he has something in their hands. They know what they say. Well, and how bad is the blockade now? Because they had at least partially lifted it and opened up the airport and opened up Hodata. Yes, the blockade is not as it was, of course.

It is better than it was, but it is still a blockade. You know, the commission ships from Houdaida, they are going there and they are paying a lot of money to healthies and it's okay. But it is still, and they are not, the ships are not going to, from Djibouti to Saudi, of course, they are not, they are coming out from Djibouti to Yemen directly. Right? This is a big thing. This is a big breakthrough. This is a good thing, of course. But it is still, I mean, they are still being threatened at any time, right?

Right. The airboats are not, the airboats are still close. It's only Sanai airport, three flights per week from Sana to Jordan, only this. And to Saudi Arabia during the height, during the Belgian armies, it was okay. The people were optimistic when they saw airports, when they saw airplanes flying from Sana'a to Gheda. But it was only during the Belgianers, during the high time, right? So they need now, they need many things. So he's still saying airport should be open, San'a airport should be open.

Flight should be to everywhere, not only to Jordan, not only to Cairo, to everywhere. salaries should be paid blockade should be lifted completely without any right and then we also the mechanism of the mechanism of

the mechanism of putting the money in the bank from the revenues of the oil should be agreed upon between us, the Houthis and the other body and the other body Saudi should not stay away from it because it has nothing to do with oil and all these things.

So they are making progress. Also the prisoners, all prisoners should be released, that is all for all agreement. That is, they kept saying about this, they kept talking about this for months now, but unfortunately a lot of people still in the prisons of the two bodies so these things are still there also the blockade the local blockade like in teiz the blockade the roads the the roads in some other cities here they need to to open it to open them all together so but this would would happen only when things are okay when salaries are paid

and when Houthis are also reassured that they are okay, that they are secure because it's very important. Security is very important for Houthi and security is very important for salaries. And it's not easy to say okay and it is not okay.

All right, last question. here, I think a little bit of good news, Nasser. Can you give us an update on that stranded oil tanker in the Red Sea? This is good. This is good. This is the only thing that we can say. It's okay. The tanker is the oil from the tanker is already removed to another tanker, to UN.

UN bought a tanker, or UN hide tanker. But there is still a problem because it's, you know, the one million barrels, more than one million barrels is still there. It is not being sold. And it's not a big money anyway. It's just, it's about $70 million. it's much less than the money they need it until now. And they still now need money to take the tanker,

I mean, the decaying tanker to other place, and then to move the new one to some other place. And so they need a lot of money now to finish, right? But it's okay. I mean, it's okay. They agreed and they finished thing because it's okay. It would have been a big disaster, a big environmental disaster, of course. But it's now it's okay, although they sometimes focus on it, as it were, as it were going to solve all the problems.

The money from it is very little. It's nothing. I mean, $70 million is nothing. It would do nothing. But now, of course, they have to agree on how we divide the money, how much is for Houthi, how much is for the other bodies, and all these things. And when are we going to sell it? For whom are we going to save it?

And all these kinds of things. Yeah. Well, at least the very worst potential catastrophe has been headed off there. it looked like that I guess I was reading that ship was ready to break apart and spill every bit of that oil so the fact that they transferred I guess you're saying not

all of it but the vast majority of it off of that ship at least is good but it's amazing it's okay yeah it's it's amazing that they can't just figure this out when there's such a there's no upside to leaving

the ship there right everybody wants the thing resolved but it takes years for them to come to some kind of agreement to solve this? Exactly. It gives you an impression. It gives you a picture how things go also, how the other things go. Because, you know, they are involved in this. And for many, for many months, maybe more than one year, more than two years, maybe. Talking, talking, talking, talking, talking. it's okay they end and I think the other things would be like this it's one can say that the whole issue of Yemen would be something like the tanker because at the end we have at

the end of the day we have a solution and we have the avoided disaster it's okay and I think the war and the end of the war would be something like this yeah that's a great analogy I think that's right and in fact you got hundreds of millions of dollars worth the oil to sell. So this, you know, desperately poor country could get back on its feet if they're allowed to participate in the global economy as before. So, yes. Yeah. Okay, Nassar, well, thank you so much again for the update. And it's always great to have you on the show and best of luck to you, man. Thank you very much. Very much, Scott, for all your interest in Yemen. And thank you very much for having your time. Thank you. Absolutely. All right, you guys. That is

Nassar Arabi. He runs Yemen alon. That's Yemen-dash-now.com. The Scott Horton show, Anti-War Radio, can be heard on KPFK, 90.7 FM in L.A. APSRadio.com, anti-war.com, Scotthorton.org, and Libertarian Institute.org.