Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews - 8/5/22 Connor Freeman on JCPOA Negotiations and Opposing War with China

Episode Date: August 7, 2022

This week on Antiwar Radio, Scott interviewed Libertarian Institute Assistant Editor Connor Freeman. Freeman goes over the messy situation Iranian officials face as JCPOA negotiations pick back up while the Middle East Cold War continues to heat up. He also touches on an article he published at the Institute arguing we need more principled opposition to war with China.  Discussed on the show: “Biden and Allies Continue to Put Iran in the Crosshairs” (Libertarian Institute)  KPFK.org “The Next Giuliani Moment: No War With China” (Libertarian Institute) Connor Freeman is the Assistant Editor of the Libertarian Institute, primarily covering foreign policy. He is a co-host on Conflicts of Interest. His writing has been featured in media outlets such as Antiwar.com and Counterpunch, as well as the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity. You can follow him on Twitter @FreemansMind96 This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: The War State and Why The Vietnam War?, by Mike Swanson; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott; EasyShip; Free Range Feeder; Thc Hemp Spot; Green Mill Supercritical; Bug-A-Salt and Listen and Think Audio. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjYu5tZiG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For Pacifica Radio, August 7th, 2022, I'm Scott Horton. This is Anti-War Radio. All right, y'all welcome the show. It is Anti-War Radio. I'm your host, Scott Horton. I'm editorial director of anti-war.com and editor of the new book, hotter than the sun. Time to abolish nuclear weapons. You can find my full interview archive, more than 5,700 of them now,

going back to 2003, at scothorton.org and at YouTube.com slash Scott Horton show. And you can follow me on Twitter at Scott Horton Show. All right, today's guest is Connor Freeman. He's assistant editor at the Libertarian Institute and is focused very sharply on American foreign policy.

and he has a couple of important ones here at issue. First of all, Biden and allies continue to put Iran in the crosshairs. Welcome to show. Connor, how you doing? I'm doing great, Scott. Thanks for having me on. All right. So you got this great piece about what's going on with Iran. Two important tracks there. On one hand, the never-ending negotiations over re-entering the Iran nuclear deal of 2015. And at the same time, all these hawkish preparations for war. And then you've this other great piece about China we're going to talk about as well but first of all you know the top headline on antiwar dot com on friday was that under european pressure america reenters jCPOA reentry talks with the iranians and so it's not all the way dead yet but please break

down for us what is the impasse on getting america back in the deal and iran i guess is still officially in the deal but no longer abiding by it but How do we get everybody reactivated here? Yeah. So last time I was on your show, we talked about, we covered virtually the middle of last year when Raiisi's government took power, actually a little bit of the Rouhani negotiations where Biden basically told them that if we return to the deal, if you, if the U.S. returns to the deal and you're in compliance, we can still reimpose sanctions and impose new

sanctions and basically killed the deal anyway. And so, but regardless, the Iranian state committed to diplomacy. Now, we talked about, you know, a series of Israeli attacks on Iran, you know, drone strikes, assassinations that, like, there were like potentially six. Some of them are unverified, but like, you know, six or so in almost a month, which is pretty unprecedented. That we talked about, you know, a massive push in Congress from the Democrats, especially and the Republicans.

I just say more notably the Democrats because they should be supporting this thing. And basically they said, you know, the IRGC is the, you know, the Iran is the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, blah, blah, and the IRGC, because of this and because how close they are to a nuclear bomb, we can never return to the deal. And so Biden, basically, when the deal was practically finalized, you know, by March, they had surpassed all these different obstacles. the Iranians essentially had the deal negotiated on their terms. And there was, as, you know, as Joseph Burrell continues to, the foreign policy chief of the EU

continues to reiterate even like this week that basically the deal is more or less done. Like he's saying that right now he has with precision broken down what, you know, needs to be done, the respective steps on both sides. What sanctions need to be lifted. this is what they're doing right now, what sanctions need to be lifted, the scope of sanctions relief that the U.S. will give Iran, and then what nuclear commitments Iran will return to, which they were in total compliance with until 2019, a year after Trump killed, you know, left the deal illegally and reimposed sanctions. And so that's all basically there and ready to go.

What it is is that, you know, the U.S. imposed new sanctions this week, for instance, maybe in anticipation of this because what continues to happen is the Americans have this opportunity to return to the deal. It makes total sense. Now, originally, one of the arguments that I, you know, was sympathetic to was that in advance of Biden's trip to the Middle East last month, where he was going to be going to Jeddah and going to Israel and meeting with the Saudis and meeting with Yer Lapid, the new acting prime minister in Israel, that there, you know, because there had been these restarted talks in Doa that had been facilitated by the EU, or really brokered by the EU again. This is Enrique Mora, the nuclear negotiator, sort of the key diplomat in, you know, moderating

all these indirect talks that were ongoing in Vienna until this one in Qatar. But, you know, the Qataris support this. And so the EU also, they basically worked together to facilitate these new talks. And of course, nothing came of that. But in advance of that, the Iranians had said, and it had been reported originally in Middle East die, that they had, you know, dropped their demand for the IRGC to be, you know, removed from the foreign terrorist organization blacklist that the State Department has. And this is a sweeping sanction that targets any and all, you know, current or former members of the IRGC, including

conscripts who served in non-military roles. So one of the things that happens is you see that there are families broken up where the wife is in the U.S. and she's a doctor, but her husband who's also a doctor can't get into the country. because he was formally in the IRGC, but again, serving like as a medic or something. There's been instances where musicians who are supposed to play, you know, Iranian classical musicians who are supposed to play shows in the U.S. can't get into the United States because they formally were in the IRGC. And it's really gratuitous because the National Iranian American Council has a great write-up about all of this. But basically, you know, the IRGC is already under myriad sanctions.

They've been like a globally designated terrorist organization since the end of the Bush to administration. They're actually sanctioned for human rights abuses and ballistic missile, you know, ballistic missile sanctions. Actually, I'm not making this up, they were sanctioned for, quote, election interference in the previous election with Biden and Trump. So there's really, it's just a gratuitous thing. It was put in place by people like, you know, at the abacom, the behest of people like Mark Dubowitz, the neocon who runs the foundation for defense democracies, Donald Trump and his sort of neocons, Zionist advisors built what they. they call a sanctions wall, which is basically designed to preclude any future administration, particularly Democrats, from ever returning to the JCPOA for fear of looking soft on terrorism in this case, right?

But, or, you know, in Elliott Abrams's point was that we're going to pile on all these sanctions and make it so complex that return to the deal will be impossible. So that's the agenda. And Biden is more or less played along with the whole thing. He went to the middle. And, you know, even though the Iranians removed this demand, it didn't make any difference in terms of the Americans, you know, their position in the negotiations in Doha. And I predict that that'll be the same case here today.

And I will point out to you that I read conflicting reports because right now, so the AP had a piece where they were talking about, you know, the upcoming negotiations. And they were saying that the Iranians have now said that they said that the state-run news agency Irna, IRNA, in Iran, had said that they had not removed that demand, that they also said that until, basically until this whole dispute over the, um, the unprocessed traces of uranium that were found at these three undeclared sites that America and Israel and Rafael Grasse, the director general of the IEA, refused to let this issue go. And it's traditionally been used over the last few years as a way of thwarting diplomacy whenever it looks like things are going in Iran's

favor. Uh, so they said, we're not going to restore this monitoring agreement, the voluntary monitoring uh, agreement that has expired, you know, a while ago. And, you know, after the IEA or the U.S. and the Europeans censured Iran at the IAEA meeting a couple of months ago for the, you know, for supposedly being intransigent on this issue and uncooperative with the IAEA, when the Iranians have said, no, no, no, no, we provided full documentation on all of this because we want to put this issue to bet. We're tired of it. And they provided the documentation in this deal that was cut with Grassee, I believe in March. They actually provided ahead of schedule before this quarterly meeting, or however often the meeting comes up. I forget exactly. But this was this IEA Board of Governors meeting a couple months ago. So after that, after they were censured, the Iranians disconnected and several cameras.

And they said basically that they would not. You know, they were not going to turn them back on, essentially. The IEA wasn't even getting that footage anyway because the monitoring agreement expired. Now, all the safeguards, you know, all the agreements, all the safeguards agreement under the NPT, that's all still active. And the Iranians have been very upfront about that. And if it, look, 80% of the cameras are still in operation, you know, we're completely in compliance at the safeguards agreement under the non-proliferation treaty. But we're not going to, what they have said, I guess, according to the Associated Press is that they're not going to restore. this monitoring agreement until the IEA drops this whole provocative kind of dispute over these

untraced, these unprocessed traces of uranium at these sites. But what I read in Bloomberg today was they were saying that the Iranians, they spoke to European officials who said that the Iranians have indeed dropped this demand to have the IRGC removed from the FTO blacklist. And also they said basically that they've also dropped their demand that Biden remain in the deal for the duration of his, even this term, which ends in 2024. So they have basically, you know, been more than cooperative. And they also said that there is some agreement, which is interesting, they weren't specific on indemnities to basically provide the Iranians with economic benefits, even if the Americans

leave the deal again, or some future administration does, or if there's some active Congress that kills the deal. So that's kind of where things stand. Now, I mean, they impose new, they do this all the time now. It's basically they, they'll sanction some Iranian petrochemical firm. And then you almost always, it's companies that are in China and the UAE. One of the reasons why they go after these companies in the UAE, I mean, from what I've been seeing, is basically so at the end of last year, you know, after the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan, there was this sort of outbreak of diplomacy where you had long time advocacy. speaking to each other and actually kind of engaging in a positive way because they actually

did believe that the Americans were more or less leaving the Middle East and that whole region to focus on China in particular with the Asia Pivot and also, you know, Eurocom and Eastern Europe with NATO and focusing on Russia now and the whole great power competition project. Now, that turned out not to be true. And I think Biden's administration and Brett McGurk did a real like U-turn on all that. but you had the Emirates speaking with the Turks all of a sudden, you know, after the blockade had been lifted on Qatar, you had the Saudis speaking with the Qatari's, you had the Iranian speaking with the Saudis. There's been a series of negotiations that were brokered by

or talks that have been brokered by Baghdad that have been going on that have shown some promise. But in particular, the UAE, their national security advisor, I think it's Mohammed bin Zayed's brother. But anyway, he went to Tehran, the national security advisor went to Tehran and they discussed like, you know, cooperating on a wide range of economic programs and all kinds of things. And the Israelis went absolutely ballistic and said that we're not going to tolerate an Abu Dhabi Tehran axis. And the Americans said that they were going to tighten sanctions on the UAE to prevent them from, to prevent people in the UAE from doing business with Iran. And so, you know, ever since then, we've seen a series of sanctions laid on Iran

that target these companies in the UAE and China, they've always said, in fact, the Wall Street Journal report, I think last year as well, they're saying that basically there's nothing else to sanction in Iran except for their oil trade with East Asia. And so that's what we're seeing. And so when the sanctions were announced, someone asked Blinken, you know, are you, basically, are you prepared to return to talks? And he said, he basically sidestepped all their questions and said that, you know, we don't really see that Iran is, let me get the quote. He said, it remains to be seen whether Iran is willing and able to move forward. But they've shown every, you know, for more than a year now, they've shown that they have

the full intent to do that. And it's the Americans who are completely dragging their feet. And they just went, you know, when Biden went to Israel, he signed this joint declaration with Yarra-Lapid saying they will, the Americans will use all their national power to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and basically said, you know, their whole policy is basically that they will use force as a last resort. And as you can see, they're expanding the maximum pressure campaign and basically refusing diplomacy at this point. While at the same time, I don't think it's been very successful, thankfully, but there is this concurrent policy. Certainly the U.S.

and Israel seem very interested in it in building up this mini-native. style alliance led by the U.S. with Israel as sort of the number two, but grouping together all these Arab states that should be, that they believe can be a part of this military alliance that will surround Iran. And Benny Gantz has announced it's called the Middle East Air Defense Alliance and that he says the progress on it has been much more significant than his public. But I read a report in Reuters that we covered on conflicts of interest that Kyle Anzalone, our news editor at the Institute and Opinion Editor Anti-War.com, we covered this. And basically, one of the things that came out in the Reuters report was that the Saudis and

the Emirates are not too enthusiastic about this. And again, they mentioned that they still are kind of holding out to see if they can have some kind of, you know, some kind of more positive relationship with Iran, which is a good thing. And just speaking about all that diplomacy, I think that's one of the that was breaking out in the region, which Treata Parsi covered over at Responsible Statecraft quite a bit. I think that one of the major reasons why they are refusing to return to the Iran deal is because I think that would be facilitated. And the Israelis do not want that.

The Israelis want to maintain, you know, this permanent presence of the American, you know, Hedgeman in the Middle East. In fact, that was one of the things that Bennett demanded in his first. meeting with Biden in the Oval Office in August when he said, or maybe it was September, early September, late August, he said that his strategic vision for Iran is death by a thousand cuts, basically myriad military and diplomatic attacks as well as clandestine attacks and the gray area, Stephanie demanded that the U.S. remain indefinitely U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq. Sorry, hang on just one second.

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the effect all these sanctions have had on the Iranian economy and for regular civilians there? Yeah, I mean, from what I've seen, the estimates of the inflation rate is 40 to 50 percent. There have been medical shortages being reported by U.N. experts, human rights watch, where basically, even though there's so-called exemptions for medical goods, the medical companies, pharmaceutical companies, banks, and, you know, basically anybody in between are just afraid to do any business with Iran on that level because they fear, you know, facing the wrath of the Treasury Department. And now the estimates are that half of the Iranian population lives below the poverty line. And there's been, you know, quite a bit of civil unrest going on in the country, you know, bread over the prices of bread and things like this. And, I mean, this is essentially what the, you know, people like Richard Nephew calls himself a sanctions artist.

This is what they like to see in countries where we wage economic war. In fact, just as far as COVID hit the Iranian population very hard, and the Associated Press reported that U.S. sanctions while allowing for humanitarian aid have made international purchases of medicine and equipment much more difficult. Iran has endured multiple waves of the coronavirus with nearly 118,000 deaths recorded, the highest in the region. And they applied for a loan from the IMF, and I believe it was for $5 billion, and the IMF, presumably under pressure from the U.S. denied loans, respectively, to Tehran and Caracas as well. It was obviously politically motivated. The sanctions policies have hurt worst people with cancers, multiple sclerosis,

hemophilia, AIDS, diabetes, and epilepsy. And there's just, you know, terrible stories you can hear about people just being unable to obtain life-saving medicines. And also the prices of staple goods and foods have just become, and automobiles and housing have just become prohibitively expensive as a result of the economic war. And of course, you know, the currency has just been largely destroyed. Yeah. All right. Now, so you have this great piece at the Institute as well called the next Giuliani moment. No War with China. And of course, the Giuliani moment is, well, there are a lot of them, aren't there? This is the one where Ron Paul told the truth about the terror war, all being blowback from the previous policy of dual containment in the Middle East in the 1990s

in his big fight with Rudy Giuliani during the campaign of 2008. And so what's that got to do with China now? start with that. Yeah. Okay. So, and I wrote this in anticipation of the Pelosi visit to Taiwan, which has caused probably the worst tensions around the island, at least since the third Taiwan strait crisis, but it looks like this will actually be worse. And it was totally unnecessary, but it was also part and parcel of this Asia pivot that was launched by Barack Obama in 2011, the largest military buildup since World War II, shifting two thirds of all air and naval forces to the Asia Pacific, targeting China. And it was expanded by Donald Trump and then vastly escalated under Joe Biden.

And so my point here in particular was to say that, you know, if you look, I think the Giuliani moment, everybody would agree was really a breakthrough, not just for Ron Paul, but for the anti-war movement. I think it was, at least in my lifetime, the first time that Republicans were basically allowed to say, we don't support this anymore, because Ron Paul stuck to his principles and said, you don't have to change anything else about your conservative politics. You just have to understand that our actions have consequences. And how would we feel if somebody else did this to us? So what I was thinking was, you know, because there is this real substantive, I think, at least on the part of the constituents, opposition to the this new Cold War with Russia at this point. The American people see what's happening to their economy with food shortages and gas prices and inflation. And all they see is the Americans being told to suck it up and just pay for this war in Ukraine because it's about the liberal world order

and we're in it for the long haul and we're prepared to support Ukraine until, you know, until victory is won like Nancy Pelosi said. And basically the American people have been totally slapped in the face. And we're sending, I believe, It means $54 billion at this point that's been pledged to Ukraine, most of it in military spending. It's set to surpass the State Department's budget. And nuclear tensions and tensions with Russia are arguably worse in the Cuban missile crisis

because Biden is not speaking to Putin. And when Blinken did finally meet with Lavrov, he refused to discuss the war other than to make threats of severe consequences and all these things. So I basically applied this to China and said, look, this is, I mean, basically taking what Michael Bolden calls the Scott Horton rule fighting, you know, fighting the right from the right. And basically what I'm saying is, look, this is the Democrats project. This is everybody you hates project. Hillary Clinton said the South China Sea is a national security interest of the United States. Obama launched this Asia pivot. It's going to cost trillion, you know,

trillions of dollars. It's the main justification for these defense budgets that are getting close to $900 billion a year at this point. You know, they call it the pacing threat. Everybody hates General Mark Millie, the Joint Chief of Staff. He says, until recently, America was the unchallenged global economic and military power. But with China's rise, that is changing. And we have to put a stop to this. And it's basically, you know, it's, I tried to basically show how it's very similar to the build up with Russia. And so for the same reason, we should oppose this new Cold War with China. So, for instance, you know, people might think Biden is weak on China, whatever, because of the Hunter Biden controversies or whatever it is, just in their media circles.

But I wanted to point out, look, Biden compared to Trump, has nearly doubled the number of aircraft carrier strike groups that have been sent into the South China Sea. He has flown 2,000 sordies, by November of last year, it flew 2,000 sorries of spy planes and military planes in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Yellow Sea. They sail, Biden assailed warships through the Taiwan Strait nearly every month. And we have troops now openly deployed to the island. We have openly, well, he has, in air quotes, gaffed several times saying that we're committed to Taiwan's defense that will fight China in a war with them. You know, before this crisis and, you know, with Pelosi going to Taiwan, we had already sent the USS Ronald Reagan into the South China Sea to conduct war drills.

I mean, he loosened decades-old restrictions on, you know, U.S. officials engaging with Taiwan government. officials and basically the State Department's official policy now is to encourage deepening our unofficial relationship. And they've been sending congressional delegation after congressional delegation and all kinds of officials to Taiwan, stepping over the one China policy to the point where it's just almost irrelevant at this point, except that it's maintained the peace, you know, since 1979. 15 years, yeah.

Yeah. And I guess my point to every, it's kind of like when you look at policy with Russia, if you look at like Reagan and George H.W. Bush, you know, Reagan negotiating the INF Treaty and reduce and beginning the, you know, ending the Cold War with Gorbachev and Bush won, reducing the nuclear stockpile down by tens of thousands and working with the rest to do that. I mean, you look at the Republicans of today and it just bears no resemblance because of the, they've been infected with neo-conservatism. But my point with this article was to show that this policy is absolutely bipartisan. If you look at the Republicans of today, and it just bears no resemblance, because of the, they've been infected with this new Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 that Bob Menendez is put in place, you know, they're talking about turning Taiwan into a major non-NATO ally, you know, sending them $4.5 billion worth of weapons over four years. And they have all these sanctions that they want to impose and they've done, you know, finance, all these financial institutions in China, you know, key industries and virtually the entire political elite, including President Xi. And, you know, they're trying to turn the quadrilatial

security dialogue with, you know, the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia into this, the foundation for a NATO-style alliance that will surround China. And, of course, we have this, you know, which, of course, would embolden the Taiwanese to declare independence and provoke war, which would be the most likely result of that and predictable enough. And I'm sorry, we're just out of time here, but it's really great stuff. Find Connor Freeman at the Libertarian Institute. That's Libertarian Institute.org. And these pieces are. Biden and allies continue to put Iran in the crosshairs and the next Giuliani moment. No war with China.

Thanks very much, Connor. Thank you, Scott. All right, y'all, and that is anti-war radio for this morning. I'm your host, Scott Horton. I'm the editorial director of anti-war.com and the editor of the new book, hotter than the sun, time to abolish nuclear weapons. Find my full interview archive at Scott Horton.org and YouTube.com slash Scott Horton's show. And follow me on Twitter at Scott Horton's show.

I'm here every Sunday morning from 9. 930 on KPFK 90.7 FM in LA. See you next week.