Scuffed | USMNT, World Cup, Yanks Abroad, futbol in America - #339: What we can do to beat Wales

Episode Date: November 16, 2022

Greg and Belz watch a bunch of Wales footage and report back. Gareth Bale is still very dangerous (once in a while), we're likely up against a 5-4-1 defensive block, and they'll hit fast in transition. Tyler Adams needs a good game, we need somebody to get on the ball between the lines and cook (Reyna, maybe Sarge or Ferreira or Aaronson), and we need quick runners off the ball to break Wales down.----Scuffed is an ad-free podcast. Support that and get exclusive episodes (more than 50 this year) by signing up for our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/scuffed Skip the ads! Subscribe to Scuffed on Patreon and get all episodes ad-free, plus any bonus episodes. Patrons at $5 a month or more also get access to Clip Notes, a video of key moments on the field we discuss on the show, plus all patrons get access to our private Discord server, live call-in shows, and the full catalog of historic recaps we've made: https://www.patreon.com/scuffedAlso, check out Boots on the Ground, our USWNT-focused spinoff podcast headed up by Tara and Vince. They are cooking over there, you can listen here: https://boots-on-the-ground.simplecast.comAnd check out our MERCH, baby. We have better stuff than you might think: https://www.scuffedhq.com/store Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to the scuff podcast where we talk about U.S. soccer. Everything depends on this Wales match on Monday. That's 2 p.m. Eastern Time, 1 p.m. Central time. If we can beat them, not only are we set up well to advance from the group. We're set up for a Black Friday showdown with England that could capture the attention of the nation. So how do we beat the Welsh, Greg? Hang on a sec. Before we do all that, like this, that, that English.

England game is not like already marked down as a loss. So while yes, the match against Wales is very important, everything does not depend on it. If we lose that game, even if we lose this game to Wales, all that's going to happen is that the U.S. and Wales will get through. So yeah, it's huge for Wales. But we've got some cushion here because we're much better than England and we're much better than Iran. Yeah, I'm thinking of like the culture, you know, everything, the popularity of soccer does depend. to some extent on the the whales result because it'll it'll provide a buildup for that game against England that's true I'll give you that I'll give you that that's fair okay so everything you're

right strictly speaking everything does not depend on the whales match I agree I was just being you know taking some poetic license well and I'm taking some poetic license calling it poetic license too I've got to admit I was doing the same because uh you know the math the math models the just going purely off Elo, if we lose to Wales, our odds of advancing do drop precipitously. Yeah. I have a tendency to kind of give some heroic glow to our opponents. I do tend to do that. So I have to acknowledge that.

But I think whales, this is going to be a tough one. They're an experienced team. They have credibly gone head-to-head with the Netherlands and Belgium twice each in the past six months. Now, they lost three of those games and drew one of them. but those are really good national teams that they kind of hung in there with. They defeated Ukraine in that playoff that sent them to the World Cup. I don't think they have any glaring weaknesses. Yeah, I mean, if they have a glaring weakness, I don't even say this is a glaring weakness.

Can't even make that stretch. But it's that they don't really choose to try to break teams down with the ball. I mean, they're definitely trying to hit fast in transition, pretty much hit fast. in transition. Yeah. And to be fair, they're pretty good at it. And they have the personnel to do it. Well, let's talk about who their starting lineup is likely to be.

And then I'm going to, we're going to get into the midfield question, which I think is kind of critical for them. They have a solid back line in Ben Davies, Joe Rodin, and Ethan Ampadoo. Now, Ampadoo could end up playing in the midfield, depending on some other stuff. and that would bring Chris Mepham in at right centerback. Goalkeeper is Wayne Hennessy or has been. I think there's a chance it could be Ward, another guy. And then the wing backs are Connor Roberts and Nico Williams.

Williams in particular likes to get forward and do some damage. And then the front line is going to be Gareth Bale at right wing, Kiefer Moore, a big target man at Bournemouth at Stryker. and then either Dan James or Brennan Johnson on the other wing. I know James has gotten more of the starts in crucial games for Wales in the last year. I think Brennan Johnson's a more dangerous player. We've got to talk about Gareth Bale a little bit. He's sort of famously came over to LAFC, famously in our little world, over to LAFC,

didn't even play in the playoffs until the MLS Cup final and then comes in and scores a header to equalize at the death to help LAA. Flee, Flee. And that is, I think, it's kind of how he is for Wales, too. I mean, he's going to start against the U.S. He's not going to be that great, like most of the time. You know what I mean? He's going to be wasteful. There's going to be, he's going to disappear from the game for stretches.

But then he's going to pop up and that freakish athletic ability and magical left foot are going to show themselves. Or they have the, they have the tendency to do so. I mean, he single-handedly beat Austria in March with a devastating free kick and a moment of class. That's the Austria match in March was their World Cup playoff semifinal. So it was a one-off game to see who was going to play Ukraine in the in the playoff to go to Qatar. So a massive game for them, of course. And he got, he hit a free kick that was, I mean, one of the best free kicks I've ever seen.

Because, because, because yes, this dude can absolutely just beat us with. with like 30 seconds of work over a 90 minute game. I think the fact that he disappears is in part because again of the way whales play. Like they, especially if they do get a lead, they aren't particularly interested anymore in doing anything besides protecting their goal.

And I don't know, I don't know if I'm overstating that, but in those cagey, like, must win games in those World Cup playoffs, like very little adventure once they, once they had a lead. Oh yeah. Once they have a lead,

it's, it's, uh, they're done. I mean, except for the, except for transition. And,

and, and you know, Dan James and Brennan Johnson both can get out in space and cause problems for the, the opponent. Bail also, you know,

it was his free kick that drew an own goal against Ukraine in that win in your end game that they put that, they played against Ukraine. Uh, now let's talk about the midfield a little bit because it's perhaps the most interesting part of the field for them. Um, Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen,

a 31, 31 years old and 32 years old are the, I think, the first choice starters in that two-man midfield. Ramsey is healthy and he's gone 90 for Nice in League of Un twice in recent weeks

like the last two games before the World Cup break he went 90. Alan, however, is not healthy and here's a clip from Football Weekly, a Guardian podcast about that which I think kind of is important. Joe Allen is the biggest concern on the Feast of Football podcast I do for the

BBC. Danny Gabbardon routinely describes Joe as our most important player because we don't really have a replacement for him. It is tackling, his distribution, his calmness on the ball. He just brings the best out of bail and Rambo. He allows them to play, makes our midfield tick. He hasn't played, worryingly since September the 17th. And Russell Martin, Swansea's manager admitted the mistakes have been made in his rehab. So it's a race against time to get him fit. Yeah, so Joe Allen is critical, I think, for them. If they don't, if he's not healthy, then it's probably Ampidu or Joe Morel in the midfield with Aaron Ramsey. There's also the possibility of Aaron Ramsey starting on the wing in more of a winger position,

and that would push James or Brennan Johnson to the bench, most likely. I had Ryan March on the podcast, who does the alternative Wales podcast, and he said essentially that's the tell on how Wales is going to approach this game. If they do have Alan and Ramsey in there, they're going to go for it. In that midfield, they're going to go for it. If Ramsey gets pushed to the wing or if Alan is replaced by a less elegant footballer, it means they're going to try even harder to pack it in. And I was really curious about that because I wasn't sure what he meant why go for it.

Like, whales don't feel like a team that even if they're going for it are going to be trying to connect 30 or 40 passes per possession. So it might have just been like, how much respect do whales give the U.S. to, to emphasize putting a more defensive player in for their block and then counter or how much are they willing to sacrifice a little bit on the defensive side with Aaron Ramsey to give themselves more skill and talent when they are trying to execute those counterattacks. Yeah. I think it's that. Yeah.

As opposed to, you know, if they don't, if they have Ramsey and Bail in there, it's going to be, they're not going to be as dynamic. If Ramsey and Bail are the wingers and keep. for Moore's up top, they're not going to be as dynamic as they would be if they had a Dan James or a Brennan Johnson. Right. But either way, not expecting whales to somehow suddenly get expansive, even if we see Ramsey in the midfield, to get expansive and start playing like, you know, ticotaka soccer. But do you really think they're going to just like pack it in?

I mean, I acknowledge that they will if they score first, then we're in for, then we're in for some pain, I think. But I don't know. So I don't think they're going to sit like super, super deep. I think they look to create transition moments with some like occasional pressing triggers that they'll come up and hunt a little bit. But they're trying to do when they get it. They want to go fast. I think that's kind of how I'm going to describe it.

They want to play upfield fast. And so, you know, when we've been talking about the U.S. lineups, I'd been kind of like maybe we don't need Tyler Adams for Wales. but I'm very much now the opposite where it's like, I think Tyler Adams absolutely must play. I was in the minority anyway saying that he shouldn't or that we might not need him. But no, like watching these the game tape on whales, like I think Tyler Adams might be our most important player for denying whales on the four or five chances that they do try to build to go fast at us.

I'm hoping that they only get four or five chances to go fast at us. But that's where Tyler Adams is going to make his money. me. Snuffing out transition scoring opportunities for the other team. So we have some notes on several of Wales' recent performances. Why don't you tell me, if you would, how you think the U.S. can go at them. So we need Tyler Adams on the field to stop those transition moments. We need to be very, very conscious of transition.

Isn't that kind of like always the case, I guess? Yeah, but again, more so here. We're like we can't get lulled into this false sense of security that because we have control of the soccer ball, we have for long stretches of time that we're in control of the game, right? Because whales aren't interested in controlling the ball for long stretches of time. They'll gladly concede it. They aren't necessarily going to like try to take it from us. Again, they'll be opportunistic and at times try to jump up on our centerbacks on our goalkeeper. And we have shown that, you know, a Matt Turner or Aaron Long, if he's starting.

and Tyler Adams as well in distribution, they can be had here, right? So if they have a little bit of a loose touch or they have a pass that they can't execute that well, whales will gladly be ready to pounce on that and come at us. But for the most part, no, I do see them trying to just stay in their shape, stay organized,

and test out whether we are capable of hitting them in pockets in their zone or if we're capable of maybe doing somebody one-on-one on the edge and sort of forcing them out of that shape. Well, it's not rocket science, but the thing that seems to break them down, the way that their opponents have been able to break them down, other than having Kevin DeBroyne on the team, is to play the ball to the feet of a striker checking back into the amoeba to steal a phrase from you. And then, so like, Poland scored, pull and beat Wales. September. This was a essentially a do-or-die game for Wales in their European

Nations League. Is it called Nations League there? It is. You have a Nations League. So, you know, I don't know if Wales considered it a must-win, but they had to win to stay in Group A of Nations League. They lost and got demoted to Group B or whatever it is, the second tier. But even in this game where, you know, they have to win

because Poland were on four points and Wales were on one point. A win would have put them level on points and put whales ahead of Poland on goal difference. So it would have meant a win keeps them in and drops Poland. Even then, Wales's first shot didn't come until 30 minutes into the game. And it was like a counter out of nowhere where Poland had inexplicably overrotated. Again, this is where the U.S. has to be very careful with our rest defense, the way we shape ourselves when we're in possession to minimize the chance of whales coming back at us. Poland didn't do it in this moment 30 minutes into the game.

game and Wales got probably their first or second best chance of the match. And they didn't have that many. To be fair, Poland didn't have that many chances either. And I thought Dan James and Brennan Johnson both caused some problems for them. Okay, so the Poland goal comes from just a ball, like a ball driven, sort of a bouncing ball driven at Robert Lewandowski. And he, you know, he just produced a moment of quality, volleying. Swadersky, I think,

gently in behind the back line for the winner early in the second half. So it's just, is just, you know, Levindowski's showing for the ball, a ball driven into him, kind of a difficult ball to handle, and he just takes the perfect touch on it to assist the game-winning goal.

Yeah, some really cool geometry from Levadowski there to sort of just cushion that ball on the volley into the open space for his teammate to run onto. The kind of thing that you definitely, expect Jesus Ferrer to do in a in a World Cup match with he will see that geometry. I don't know if he can execute it. So, so yeah, again, the thing for me to remember in this game is the game state was huge, right? Poland effectively entered this game with a half goal lead because a draw was good enough for them. If it finished the zero zero or one one, they're fine. So they weren't

really interested in attacking that much either. So for me, the big tell here is whales when they have to attack still can't necessarily put together that much quality attacking. Okay. That's my big takeaway. You know, once Poland, especially once Poland got their goal, didn't care at all about attacking the rest of the way because now they've got a one and a half goal lead. And even if they concede one, they're still fine. Right.

But yeah, so it was more about whales in this thing where they were chasing from the first whistle. They had to score a goal. Couldn't really muster that much. And that's, I'm just taking it as a, as something that's at least encouraging for the U.S. Because our defense has been mostly pretty good. I mean, the thing that I'm worried about for us is a mistake, you know, a mistake that that gives them a goal. Because they will, you know, they will pounce on that. But even as I say that, they'll pounce on it, but I don't know, you know, Dan James will miss.

You know, I know finishing isn't a thing, but Dan James can't finish. Yeah, it's going to be, we want the chance to fall to someone besides. besides Gareth Bail. Yeah, don't let it fall to Gareth. Order of operations would be Gareth Bail is the least, the one we least wanted to fall to, then probably Kiefer Moore,

then Brennan Johnson, and then, you know, Aaron Ramsey and Dan James, knock on wood, can be, so they can have as many chances as they want. All right, well, they played,

but whales also played Belgium in September. Belgium 18 shots to Wales 7 Wales got a few set pieces and some scramble moments Brennan Johnson stood a ball up for Kiefer Moore and he dunked on a sort of fringe member of the Belgian national team a guy named Zeno DeBost who was a debutante in the back three who didn't make the World Cup squad. That was Wales only goal.

Belgium scored on a good finish from DeBroyna after some patient buildup getting the ball to Batsuyashi on the right side. He centered it and, KDB hit it well with his left foot into the front corner. The second goal came from another moment of DeBrena quality, running the channel, receiving the ball, and then crossing it for a Batsuyashi tap in.

So Belgium was able to get some joy against Wales, but a lot of it was because of Kevin DeBrena. Yeah, and we've got a G.O. Raina, so this should be no problem for us. Yeah, like for like. Like for like. I'm going to take us to the Wales versus Austria World Cup playoffs semifinal. Please do. Because I think this is going to be the one that for me is the most informative to watch because Austria were really like working hard in possession to break whales down. You know, you go through all the shots and again a little bit of like Y Scout inside baseball here.

when you click on their clips, you get the 10 seconds leading up to the actual action you're trying to watch. For Wales, when you're watching all their shots, the pattern is the same, right? Like, when you click there, your whales might not even have the soccer ball yet 10 seconds before their shots, because their shots come on these turnovers that they try to create, and then they just go get their shot off. Or it's going to be a set piece. So they're all lined up, taking a corner kick or a free kick. Austria was like the opposite. Every Austria possession, every Austria shot that you were cycling through,

Like you'd get to that, that clip would start and it's Austria in the middle of a possession. Well, I want to see how it started. So I got to go back 10 seconds. And then I got to go back 10 more seconds and then back 10 more. Like all of Austria's shots came from like 40, 50 second buildups against whales where they could patiently try to pull whales, stretch whales with their movement, play into the amoeba, play around the edge. And I think I'm hoping that this is the tape Burrhalter's watching because Austria gets some good looks doing this. They just didn't capitalize, and then they fall to the two Gareth Bale worldies. Yeah.

So I thought, you know, Wales played Ukraine a few months after they played Austria. I thought Ukraine did a better job of getting good looks from possession than Austria did. But, I mean, usually you're right and I'm wrong. So I'll take it. I just don't know that Austria's looks were really that good against some. Wales. Like they did have a lot of possession, but a lot of their shots were like blocked off the foot of Arnautovic or, you know, something like that. Right. I think what I'm looking for in this tape and what I'm expecting Greg Burhalter is looking at is the early buildup because that's where we

struggled so badly against Japan. And again, Japan is going to, that Japan defense is going to look a lot different than the Wales defense once we get there. But like the buildup issues that I think we see from some of our centerbacks, I think, and from our goalkeeper, I think this is where Burrhalter can take this tape from Austria and be like, okay, this is how you can find those weak spots in Wales's zones. And then it's going to be about what do we do once we've done that. And Austria didn't do the best job over 90 minutes. Again, they fell behind 25 minutes in, and then it gets really tough because then Wales, I think, pack it in even a little bit more, send fewer people forward even on their counter attempts.

But I just feel like watching what Austria are trying to do in possession is going to be a good proxy for what we try to do in our possessions. You're saying we're going to attack whales. The way we're likely to attack whales is the way Austria did, just with long spells of possession, playing it into the amoeba, maybe trying to create triangles at the top of their box. Are we not going to do the sort of, you know, hit it long? stuff because they're not going to be they're going to be too deep for us to do that

basically. That's what I'm expecting you. I don't think we'll, I don't think we'll be able to just hit the ball in behind their their back line and go. I mean like there will be times where we can get some rotation and maybe sneak a player through, but it's, it's not

going to look anything like Saudi Arabia where it's just like long ball after long ball into a deep player and then everyone rushes to catch up to the play. Or doesn't. Or doesn't rush to catch up to the play. as the case maybe. No, I think it's going to be very much about hitting that ball into the, into the amoeba first, trying to, you know, force whales to collapse on that play

and then going out from there. And I really do think that we're capable of it. I think we've got the players to do it. And so it's just going to become execution and frequency. How brave are we to do it? How well do we execute it? How often? Anything else on the Austria game from you?

No, that's my Austria bit. Okay. Yeah. I mean, just to sort of drive the point home, Bales free kick, the one in, you know, 25 minutes in that sort of changed the game state was, I don't know what, 23 yards away. And he hit it over the wall and it dipped over the wall. And it just grazed the underside of the crossbar at the, you know, very much top ends, very close to the post. Just an unstoppable shot. and then he scored the second goal in the second half, I believe,

or was it still in the first half? Anyway, he scored the second goal on a corner kick where it was just sort of somebody else took a touch and he flashed through and took it off his teammates' foot and then just whipped it into the far corner. Just the whole thing was so surprising and decisive the way he scored there to make it two zero. Yeah, the dude's on another level.

Like very clearly, Gareth Bail is on another level. He's so good. Against Ukraine, the game that sent Wales to the World Cup, it was the lineup was Hennessy and Goal and then Opidu, Rodin, and Davies. I mean, basically the lineup that we think is the first choice lineup with Daniel James instead of Brennan Johnson. Brennan Johnson came on later. There was a little bit of raggedness from Ethan Apadu on a step

which kept Yarmchuk, the Ukrainian striker on side, to run onto a driven ball down the channel from one of the centerbacks, and he drew a diving save from Hennessy. I thought, in general, Ukraine had a lot of chances in this game. They just couldn't seal the deal. And as we've talked about, Wales did a very good job of transitioning quickly out of their 5-4-1 and racing into the attack. They pretty much have a 5-4-1 as their base defense, right?

Yeah, and that's why I think it's not like their wingbacks are super-agre. trying to cheat upfield while they're defending. Right. So that's where it's not like, oh, we can just hit the space behind their wingbacks over and over again. It's going to be more like we have to get the ball facing their defenders up. And then we've got to find some clever ways to go from there to shooting opportunity. So does that make you think Hayes-Ferreira is going to start since he's sort of the, he's sort of the brawaters platonic ideal of the guy who can do that?

Um, potentially. I mean, so, so the issue becomes, uh, to attack the 541, if you put Ferreira there coming back into the middle, uh, then obviously what you want is people running beyond him. And if Gio Raina is starting in this game, he's not the player who's going to be running beyond him. Geo could very much do what you're asking for error to do. He's not checking back from the back line, but he can operate high and then find pockets in that,

in that space, um, to do all. of those things. And so I think that's going to be the tension there is if you're going to start Raina in the midfield or even as one of the half face merchants, then I think you just want sergeant up top. I think it's a much better balance against Wales to keep Sergeant higher and do less dropping in from the striker because Raina can do that. If it's pool sick and waya, then yeah, I think Ferrer probably makes most the most sense. Okay. Okay. I noticed in this case, in this case, I know people worry about Ferreira his frame and getting muscled out. Like if Ferreira is actually bringing centerbacks up with him to muscle him out,

then he, I mean, even doing that is almost like doing his job. Like, if centerbacks are coming up to knock Ferreira off the ball, then you're probably not going to be going to Frereira. You're going to be looking for way out or Pula sick in the channels behind them. Yeah.

Yeah, it is, it is true, though. Waya is the guy who will make that running behind the most effectively. if the striker is dropping deep much more effectively than Raina, even though Raina is, I would say, a more talented player than Weya. I did notice a couple more things about that Ukraine game.

I did notice that just like Lewandowski played that one-touch pass in behind, Yarmchuk did this a couple times for Ukraine. It was a way for them to create real chances. They just couldn't capitalize, like I said earlier. the whale's goal came on an own goal when Andre Yarmolinko who you may remember from Dortmund days

headed in a Gareth Bail free kick and Dan James dies a lot not a big fan of that but he can do some stuff in the middle third and he can't do anything in the final third

I thought Ukraine was much more patient and practiced against a low block than we have ever looked and there were peppering the goal in the second half. Hennessy and Davies both sort of built monuments to themselves in the, and that's late second half. They did.

But to be honest, the takeaway there is whales, even sitting deep just to protect their one goal ticket to Qatar, they're not airtight, right? Like they have, you know, they have moments where they crack.

And it was just a little bit, lot of luck to go along with that hard work from guys, you know, throwing bodies in front of the goal. that they got out of there with their 1-0 win. Yeah. Game could have gone differently, I think it's fair to say. Ukraine had 66% possession.

And Wales basically, I think outside of maybe a couple of games in the last six months, they get out possessed. Right. Again, they're not interested in having the ball. They're not even that interested in taking the ball away from you. So are you, you know, after going through all this footage, Do you feel more confident about our chances against Wales or less? So I genuinely feel more confident about it. I mean, it should be like the chance for the U.S. to showcase whether we're actually any good or not.

So if we're any good, we should be able to actually showcase that against Wales. If we're not any good, then we will find that out and we won't be able to even, you know, come close to breaking down Wales's defensive block. And Wales will hit us a couple of times on a couple of our turnover. And I know I just said, you know, we can, losing to Wales isn't the end-all be-all. But if that's what happens and we don't create any chances and then whales score on counters and beat us, it probably does signal that our World Cup is pretty much done because we're not good enough at soccer to advance. So we just got to pass the ball to either Ferreira or sergeant's feet.

Get Raina. Get Raina in there. Into the thick of things. But is Barthor going to do that? Is he going to put Raina in? the midfield for this game. Even if he doesn't. So Raina, again, Rayna could play out wide on the right, especially if Josh Sergeant is up top.

And he could cook. Like, he could totally cook in there. We can get the ball into him. He's such a grown man when the ball comes into his feet in any kind of a pocket. And he can, I mean, he can do some real individual cooking if we can pull this off. And again, this goes back to also hoping that Tim Ream gets a little bit of a look because Tim Ream can hit the ball into those pockets. Zimmerman will try to hit the ball into those pockets.

We have two centerbacks feeding our best cooker. We can do some things. Okay. I haven't even mentioned like here, Eunice Musa can cook here. Like, Eunice Musa can do somebody one v one. And I know there's a lot of dominoes that still have to fall. But that can be what you need to undo a team that's trying to sit in this low block. Yeah.

Or in a very organized block, even if it's not necessarily a low block. Like, we've got some weapons to do it. And I don't know, man. I'm feeling good about it. Musa's chances in a 1-V-1 battle with either Ramsey or Joe Allen. Or Joe Allen's replacement? Come on. Yeah.

Are pretty good. You know, I back him to, I back us to overrun their midfield if there's an opportunity to do that. But, you know, soccer's a crazy game. They do have Gareth. bail. They, they are extremely sort of cohesive and, you know, we'll see. They're committed. They are committed. As the announcer said after the national anthem against Ukraine, if there was a World Cup for singing, Wales would win it every time. And you know,

you guys know I'm a fan of singing. All right. As soon as this game's over, I think we're cheering for whales. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. I am at least. All right. I think that's it. hopefully we've shed some light here. Thanks everybody for listening. We'll see you.