Scuffed | USMNT, World Cup, Yanks Abroad, futbol in America - #497: Bolivia, Panama & Uruguay backgrounders with Jon Arnold

Episode Date: June 4, 2024

Jon Arnold, one of the nation's leading Concacaf scholars, joins the pod to talk about the USA's group at the Copa America: Bolivia, Panama and Uruguay. As is our custom we strayed from the agenda and discussed the Columbus Crew's loss to Pachuca in Champions Cup, why Mexico isn't a global power in soccer. But the core of the episode is backgrounders on the USMNT's group opponents in this upcoming tournament. No huge surprises but you will surely be able to impress at cocktail parties with a little more depth on Bolivia's mediocrity and Panama's relative strength under Christensen.———Sign up for Jon's newsletter, Getting CONCACAFed, which covers “the good, the bad, and the weird and wild of soccer in the Concacaf region,” here: https://getconcacafed.substack.com/———Subscribe to Scuffed on Patreon! Patrons get a private feed for the Monday Review, which is, among other things, a run-down of club action for national team players every week with Watke and Vince. We have recently added patron-only content that’s available every Friday. Patrons also get access to our private Discord server, live call-in shows, and the full catalog of historic recaps we've made: https://www.patreon.com/scuffed Skip the ads! Subscribe to Scuffed on Patreon and get all episodes ad-free, plus any bonus episodes. Patrons at $5 a month or more also get access to Clip Notes, a video of key moments on the field we discuss on the show, plus all patrons get access to our private Discord server, live call-in shows, and the full catalog of historic recaps we've made: https://www.patreon.com/scuffedAlso, check out Boots on the Ground, our USWNT-focused spinoff podcast headed up by Tara and Vince. They are cooking over there, you can listen here: https://boots-on-the-ground.simplecast.comAnd check out our MERCH, baby. We have better stuff than you might think: https://www.scuffedhq.com/store Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to the SCuff podcast where we talk about U.S. soccer. Hey, everybody. I've got a great friend of the podcast, John Arnold here. He, as many of you know, writes a newsletter called Getting ConcaCath. The links in the show notes, check it out, subscribe. The Copa America tournament kicks off in a little over two weeks, and John is here to help us think through the USA's group and expectations for the U.S. in this tournament. John, how you doing? I'm good, man.

Soccer never stops. as you know and your listeners know, just finished the club season, Conccaf Champions Cup, and now World Cup qualifying for Concaf this week and Copacan met it in just a few weeks. So we do love it, but it certainly keeps us on our toes, huh?

Yeah, it just keeps going. This wasn't on the agenda, but I do want to get your quick thoughts on the beat down that Wilfred Nancy and the Columbus crew suffered in Pachuca. Yeah, I think we'll talk about some of these kind of same ideas when we talk about what the U.S. is facing,

in its Copa America group. You had a manager who had 20 days basically to prepare for one specific match, and yet his team had spent months and months understanding his idea. Almada's high press with Pachuca, but even that, it wasn't a super tactical opening goal. There were some mistakes, and I just think Pachuca was so laser-focused on that game. Columbus was in a match rhythm which you could say, oh, that's better. They got to play games. But I think that when you have a team that's as good as Pachuca that was able to rest,

Mexican teams are often playing a game every three days. The fact that Pachuca was able to rest their players, focus, put up one game plan, I think you still sort of see the difference. To be honest, I was a little disappointed just because I think, and I still think the crew are this different MLS champion. They've been so methodical in their way of working. Nancy's been so smart. They've done so many interesting things against their own competition in MLS.

And look, I still think you can take nothing away from what they did to Tigres, what they did to Raiaados, especially Raiaados in that second leg. But you really felt like, oh, this time it's going to be different. It just wasn't. I think the gap between leagues still exists, and you saw some of that on display Saturday night. Sorry, Don Garber. Sorry to say it. Yeah, let's get to the common ball, Concaf, Copa, Medica stuff.

So let me start with a question. Klosopher from Richmond, Virginia, asks, how likely is it that Concaf and Common Ball crossovers happen more regularly in competitive play? Do you think there are differences in how each federation feels about this? I think we're going to see plenty more as international soccer continues to kind of grow and evolve. I think it just makes a lot of sense for the Americas as Latin Americans look at the continent. I think in the U.S., the English-speaking portion of North America, we have this idea of North America and South America. And that obviously is how the regions are split up in the soccer world.

But a lot of times politically, people think of the Americas going from Canada all the way down to the bottom there, Argentina, and Chile. So I think that it makes a lot of sense for those confederations to come together more often. They announced a partnership that sort of has been derailed, I think, by FIFA's master plan of club World Cup stuff. But I do think we'll eventually see the Concca Cap champion and the Copa Libertadores champion and the Copa Sudamericana champion and maybe like a league's cup champion or something else. Play each other in sort of the tournament. That seems like it's on the way for this international tournament that FIFA is also going to be a part of in the Club World Cup in 2025. I think you'll see more crossover. And then from national teams, I think, you know, ideally probably not Copa America, but especially on the women's game.

There's already been some significant crossover with Comitable teams invited to the Gold Cup. I think the second portion of the question from Clostopher is quite interesting. Hey, what's the view from Commonwealth of Concaf and vice versa? I think we'll get into this a little bit as well. But Mexico is kind of its own category for Comptychelles. They want the TV. Why? How so? So Mexican teams played in the Libertadores for quite some time.

The Libertadores, of course, is the Champions League of South America. Mexico is a massive TV market. If Club America, when Clobarctica played these Libertadores games, when Chivas played these Libertadores games, when Tigres played these Libertadores games, it's big, big money for TV rights, which it seems like increasingly drives the sport and sports in general. But because of the way that Liga Mekis now is looking north for dollars with Leagues Cup, with other financial avenues through the Conccaf Champions Cup, which now qualifies you for the Club World Cup, it seems like Mexican clubs returning to the Libert Dolores isn't on the table. But I think there's still that kind of brotherhood felt from South American soccer leaders toward Mexico specifically. That could potentially also start happening with the U.S., with Canada and with Conccaf as a whole.

But I don't know that it's there yet. I think the people still, you know, and even with Leonel Messi going to MLS, you know, I think there's still not a sneering look toward soccer in the United States, but definitely a, you know, we're still ahead. We're still much better view from Argentina, Brazil and the rest of South America. And like, also fair enough, right? Argentina is the champion of the world. Brazil has the history in the World Cup to back it.

I totally get that. But I do think as the economics continue to shift and the kind of FIFA master plan continues to look toward the U.S. Because of the dollars, because of the growing market here, I think we'll see more and more games. And as that happens, as you continue to have contact, it only seems logical that there's going to be other opportunities for collaboration. Okay. Cool. You know, while we're on big picture stuff, this question just occurred to me when you were talking about Mexico and the brotherhood with South American, the South American. Federation. I know this has got to be a question that you've wrestled with. You've probably written about multiple times before.

But it does occur to me right now, and not with any pettiness, I ask. Why is Mexico not a big soccer nation? Like, why are they not, you know, 100, what is it, 130 million people, 140 million people? Huge, I mean, the largest Spanish-speaking country. on earth and everybody loves football there. Why have they not been able to be on the level of like even Uruguay, you know? And I say that with a lot of respect for Uruguay. Yeah.

Oh, absolutely. But yeah, the populations don't match, right? And I think like the economic game, the economics of the club game is probably a big part of the reason that Mexico is different from Uruguay and also a big part of the reason they haven't had that success. And part of it is size too. Like Uruguay can convene these camps from the time that a player is 13 years old or whatever age they pick. Everyone does it in Montevideo.

A third of the population, two-thirds of the population already lives there already. You can just bring in these kids to all be at the whoever, National or Pena Roll Development Center, the National Team Development Center, and it's fine. Whereas in Mexico, maybe one kid, you know, look at the 2018 national team, Ector Herreras from Baja California, basically, you know, 30 minutes from San Diego. and then you had Chicharitos from Warlajara and Carlos Velas from Cancun, which is on the other side. So, you know, there are some of the same difficulties that the U.S. faces.

And I think the economics of the club game with America having as much money as it does, the Monterey team spending as much money as they do, that means you have these players who hit the ceiling. Because the development and infrastructure isn't as high as it is in Europe, where the Uruguayan kids go as soon as they turn 16, 17, 18, you don't have that same progression. My dream is for, you know, talking big picture, my dream is for our coaching education in Concca CAF and our development structures and the infrastructure for, you know, professional academies

to surpass those of Europe. So we're not talking about going to Europe anymore. We're talking about staying at home and developing and becoming the best player you can possibly be and the U.S. and Mexico being the best national teams in the world because of what we've done here. That's just not the reality right now. The coaching, the nutrition, the gym, the, you know, muscle for specific. soccer specifically, all that research, all that coaching is so much farther ahead in Europe. And I think that Uruguayan kids get over there so much quicker.

Also, to be fair to Uruguay, and they are obviously, I think, like a unique case you kind of have to put on this island. But like the international football history and, you know, the national team being important stretches back longer than it does for Mexico or most of their rivals even. So, you know, I think there's got to be some grace there. But it's also a totally fair question that I think, Mexico continually wrestles with and then doesn't fix, right? There's no, it just doesn't have to be a push. Okay.

Well, I guess it doesn't have to be a comparison just with Uruguay. You know, it's like Argentina has a third as many people as Mexico in it. But, you know. Yeah, and I think, again, you see the structures. In some ways, it's a bummer, right? Like, oh, it's too bad that a club like, I don't know, Belgrano or, Argentinos juniors or something like that, you can't imagine them ever winning the Libertadores,

ever competing at the Club World Cup level, but yet they are producing these players who go to River or Boka, who then are sold at a young age to Europe, and you have this kind of very formal infrastructure. But even then, the education at Argentinos juniors, it looks like is still far surpassing what a young 17-year-old, 18-year-old, 19-year-old talent

would get at let you go San Luis or Santos Laguna, even though Santos has a very good academy, right? So I think that that's where Mexico is still lacking in the efforts. What I'm saying by, oh, they're not doing anything to change is that every four years, the Mexican Federation president comes out and says, we're going to fix things. And it's like, how are you going to solve this disconnect

between the clubs who are not willing to make their players that much better to sell their players abroad and the Federation's goals, which is to compete on a national team level with Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia, etc. Okay. Big question, I guess. Probably could use a book length explanation. All right. I'll think about it.

Yeah. Here's another listener question before we get into the group. Jeff and D.C. asks, it's common to hear that players, quote, may not be ready for the level of international competition. end quote, especially for the second tier guys. He's talking about the U.S. men's national team. Tillman, I think he's talking about Malik Tilman, Alejandro Zendejas, and Kevin Peretti have all had this set about them recently. Are games against Concaf teams really higher level than what these guys experience day to day

in the Aera de Visi Liga Emekis and the Bundesliga? Surely not, right? I have some thoughts here, but why don't you go first? Yeah, I think my... My sort of gut reaction to that is that a lot of times that sort of phrase is used as cover for the fact that they either don't rate the player or don't rate the league. Or maybe some combination of the two. Obviously, I spend a lot of time writing and covering Ligamekis. I think Alejandro Zendejas should be in the U.S. national team.

I think he's really good. I know that he hasn't necessarily taken the biggest advantage of the chances that he's had. But when I look at the roster, I look at what he did with Blue America this year. and the kind of bigness of Club America, to me, I rate that at a high level, and I say, to me, he's one of the best 26 players who are eligible to represent the U.S. But I think that, you know,

if a manager doesn't think that, then it's very easy to say, ah, well, it's easy to say that about, like, a guy in the Ere de Vise or Liga MECIS or even MLS, and tough to say that if a guy hasn't been getting minutes in the Bundesliga or La Liga or the Premier League or something. To me, it sort of seems like running cover, but I don't know where you're at.

Well, I just think you've got to take each of those players separately. Yeah, that's a great point, too. Right. Like, Tillman's been awesome for his team in the Air Divisi, an absolute game changer. But the level of the level of a game against Otto Den Haag or whatever is not the same as a level of a game against Mexico. It's not as good. So, yeah, it's not. that comparison is not favorable for Tillman.

A PSV Champions League game is a favorable comparison. So it's like, I think the question is, can Tillman come in and be the game changer he is for PSV for the U.S. men's national team? I think probably can. We just haven't quite seen it yet. Now with Perretti's, he does play a fair amount in the Bundesliga. his minutes are largely him serving a kind of utilitarian function for his team.

And if he's going to be a left back for the U.S., great. Then that probably works, although there are limits even to that. If he's going to be a winger for the U.S., it's not good enough, even if he's playing in the Bundesliga. He needs to actually change games and create chances. Yeah, and I think one thing that's very, easy to slip into as soccer fans and lovers of the national team and international game especially. But, you know, I constantly push back when I'm writing about the Conc Cap Champions Cup. It's very easy to say, oh, it's MLS versus League Emekis.

It's MLS versus League of Meckes. And it's not. Pachuca doesn't see it that way. Columbus Crew didn't see it that way, right? And I think that it's very easy sometimes to say, and now, of course, we have trends. The Mexican League wins basically every single year with one notable exception. we can sort of logically conclude the Mexican League is still stronger than MLS. However, can you just blanket say, if Columbus crew beat Pachuca, then MLS is better?

No, right? And I think, like, it's easy to sort of go a level or two up where what you're saying is, hey, is Zendajas ready to play for the U.S. against Bolivia? Yeah, probably. Is he ready to play for the U.S. against Uruguay? like, you know, maybe maybe that's where the cap is. And if that's where the cap is and you're the manager trying to get ready to play these teams, then maybe you say, I wish I had seen this player at this level more consistently.

And maybe that's some of where that kind of logic comes from and saying, I'm going a different direction and picking a player who plays in a stronger league. But I think it's so easy to say, oh, the League of Mekis players didn't get picked. Oh, MLS is worse than League of MECs. and sometimes it is much more about, no, simply Patchuka was the best team in Conccaf this year, and Zendajas is off the roster for XYZ reason. Yeah, yeah.

I think the point about is, can Zendias, can Zendias win us a game against Bolivia? Yes, I think so, probably, like you said. But I guess I would worry about him more, like you also said, against the team like Uruguay, where maybe his physical limitations come more into play. Because all of a sudden you're facing him, bunch of like just full grown men and with playing with absolute commitment on defense so yeah it's

case by case but yeah just to just to say um you know because this player plays in this league he's he's not ready i agree with you that's not that's not how that's not how it works it's not how reality works um okay let's get into bolivia let's start with bolivia um the USA plays them at jerry world your home stadium, John? It's relatively close. I don't consider at home and anything else other than that. It's not super cozy, man.

It's not a... You can't take an average world. No, no. Not cozy at all. The jumbo-tron's way too big. The further I get away from it, the more I realize how ridiculous it is. Because it's ridiculous to sit in the stadium

and catch yourself watching the game on TV. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, you're absolutely. And then the press box is like right at screen level. So often when I'm sitting there covering a game, I'm like, I could be doing this at home, a place that is cozy. But then I make myself watch the field. Good place to watch the game.

All the experts are terrible, but. No, yeah, it's not terrible. I agree with that. It's just funny. Like all across academia, they're saying, you know, get the screens away from your children, you know, as much as you can. And Jerry Jones is like, here's the biggest screen. you've ever seen in your life. It's weird that everyone's allowed to play Roblox up there.

Yeah, that is weird. Their coach is Antonio Carlos Zago, a Brazilian centerback who played at Roma for a bit, got about 30 caps with the national team, the Brazilian national team, that is. Bolivia, a nation of 12 million, I guess that'll come up in some of the questions later, a little less than half the population of Texas.

Typically difficult to play against at home and common ball qualifying, in part because of the altitude, just a very mountainous country, but not a soccer power, and they've only qualified for one World Cup in the past 70 years, the one in 1994.

We've had a little more success at the Copa. They were champions in 63, runners up in 97 and made it out of the group in 2015. But, you know, let's cut to the chase. On paper and on television today, they do not look formidable, do they? No, Bolivia is never good. That sounds harsh.

And like you said, they've won the Copa America before. They win sometimes at home. But this is a team that in a really, really difficult place to play, I'm talking about Connable, rarely is at the level necessary to compete. And I think that when you look at this Bolivia specifically, it's not dismissive to look and say, even for Bolivia, this doesn't look like a really strong team. This doesn't look like a great generation. It doesn't seem like this is a group that is Bolivia's strongest in years or anything like that. And when you have that combination of historically bad and currently not great either, it's difficult to say they're the dark course of Copa America.

I don't think they are. Yeah. So just a few more facts, a few more boring facts before we keep going here. But they're sitting ninth in Commonwealth Qualifying. their only win is over Peru, who sits 10th. That's 10th out of 10. I don't know much about their player pool. I do know that Henry Vaca, who is a player who could create some danger for them,

is not in this roster, right? He's not in the Copa roster. He's hurt. And they lost 1-0 to the Mexico U-23s, essentially, at Soldier Field over the weekend. Now, the score was 1-0, like I said, with an Efron Alvarez winner, but the scoreline flatters of Bolivia, I think, a little bit.

Mexico was all up in their business. So, yeah, I mean, should the U.S. expect to beat them? Yes. I think I know the answer. Yes. No, absolutely. I think if the U.S. doesn't beat Bolivia,

especially on American soil, you're in real, real trouble for the rest of the tournament and for anything else that you're going to do, forward. You know, I think it's kind of crazy maybe to put it down on one game, but if the U.S. doesn't beat Bolivia,

I think the Burrhalter out should probably be heated. Maybe not after, maybe not, you know, as you're on the tarmac going in the next game, but like this tournament to me, and I'm sure we'll get into this more and I understand we're focusing on the group, but like this tournament to me is a huge

it's taking the temperature. It's the last time, really, to take the temperature of the U.S. men's national team playing top, top opposition. Bolivia does not fit that bill. You must beat this team if you have any aspiration to do big things at the 2026 World Cup. So, you know, with all respect, again, to Bolivia and the fact that it is a country that loves its football, when you look at the roster, you have players getting

called in who oftentimes, you know, how make way are, is a forward option for them. He plays in the Barcelona system and the youth level. He was born in Spain. They've called him a defender. who's in the Atlanta United set up, who's played once or twice for the Atlanta United senior team in MLS this year, was born in Georgia. You know,

you're trying to pull understandably for these resources from abroad because the domestic-based player pool just hasn't kicked on to the next level. There's some decent club football in Bolivia. You see Bolivar specifically make big inroads during Copa Libertadores. They've got some outside investment. I have some sort of link with the city football group, I think, still. But it's just, not at the same level as what the United States is doing when you talk about the player

pool, when you talk about recent results, you got to win. You got to beat Bolivia. Have you ever been to Bolivia? No, I really want to go, actually. I haven't either, yeah. I know Robert Andrew Powell has been. He did a story back in the day and mentioned like getting whacked by the altitude and which, you know, again, is kind of the advantage that Bolivia seems to have both in Libertadores play and other international club competitions and at the international level.

I think they're actually going to start to play fewer games at altitude, which you'd say, not the smartest move for results. But I hear it's really cool. There's some cool things happening there, like culture and food and drink-wise, but I have not made it to oblivion. John in Newport, Pennsylvania says,

John, love your work and appreciate your fellow J-O-N spelling. He said after this underwhelming result against results last showing against a very young Mexican lineup. Do you think they have any hope in any of their upcoming Copa games? Not particularly. I think you play the games on the field and some of the stuff that gets written in a preview magazine or in a preview newsletter or set on a preview podcast always looks a bit silly. But again, I just don't think that this Bolivia is in a very good situation right now.

Maybe in a couple years you see some of these younger. players who are in the Bolivian clubs, catch the eye of bigger teams and move on. But right now, I just think that they don't have, even some of the, you know, back in the day, we could say, oh, my goodness, Marcelo Moreno, this kind of like, maybe a Conccaf parallel would be like almost to Carlos Ruiz, where it's just like, oh, my gosh, like this guy is just, he can always find the back of the net even when his team wasn't very good. and if they bunker and sort of hit once, then maybe they'll get a win.

He retired. So there's just not a lot of hope that I see for Bolivia unless that next generation starts emerging literally right now this summer. Yeah. Yeah, I guess any players that sort of catch your eye, I mean, just to give them just to give a little more color on the team? I mean, Ramiro Vaca.

I don't really, yeah, Vaca out. There's another Vaca, I think, that's, I'm not sure if he's. Yeah, he's the number 10, Ramiro. Baca instead of Henry. I think Miguel Terceros is playing in Brazil and I think he's only 2021 and he's already accumulated a lot of caps for Bolivia for the senior team.

You'd say, if you're playing in Brazil and getting caps, it seems like that could be a player that could break out. But we'll see. Yeah. I guess I'll say Rodrigo Romayo had a nice goal against S. Ecuador in a losing effort in qualifying.

The goals have been few and far between in qualifying for them. Well, let's ask this question. Trevor in Waco, Texas, he says, as we've discussed, Bolivia seems to be the leftover common ball country, you know, finishing last or next to last, almost every cycle. Why is this? Is it geographical? Is it being landlocked?

with high altitude, is there another sport that has priority in that sporting culture? Is it related to political issues or instability? He says, this is a country I don't know much about overall, but it's always struck me as strange that they are so far behind. Yeah, I think it's a little bit of a mix of those things that, you know, partly, like kind of the geographical and disparate kind of nature of the country, I think makes it harder to sort of have a pipeline to some of the top leagues Bolivia and Paraguay have the lowest GDP in South America. I think economics is a real factor.

Paraguay has the obvious and easy geographical connection to Brazil and to Argentina and to Uruguay going through those countries. So I think it's just easier for those players to kind of get spotted and get into an Argentine academy or a Brazilian academy. How many guys on the Paraguayan national team are from the Argentine club systems? It's quite a few. Although some of them moved on to MLS or other leagues, but most of them have some sort of history in another country. And I think that's helpful. There are some very strong clubs in Bolivar, I mentioned, the strongest. But I think for the most part, you're looking at sort of a blend of these economic factors that make it more difficult maybe for players to dedicate themselves to a top-level international career and the fact

that the population is just really small. I mean, it's a tiny country. Again, we can talk about outliers. oh my gosh look at Uruguay, some of the European nations, even like a Costa Rica in Comcaf, but I just think those kind of factors that were mentioned by Trevor sort of blend together and lead to Bolivia not being a power or even a contender. Yeah. Yeah, okay. Well, let's talk about Panama and Uruguay next.

But first I want to say, If you are enjoying this and you want to support this podcast, join us on Patreon. We've published 171, I counted recently, exclusive episodes for paying subscribers in the last couple years. That includes the Monday review. Emergency pods, when big news breaks, extended interviews with people like Jenny Chu and Dave Saracan and Joe Matchnik, call-in shows, and the occasional full audio from a press conference. Patrons also get full access to our Discord server. when we take questions on shows such as this one

or when we organize a trip to Italy or when we do a call-in show, patrons get first dibs. Join us. The link is in the show notes. All right, John. So USA versus Panama on June 27 in Atlanta at the Mercedes-Benz.

I will be there. And so will Vince? Yeah, Vince and I will be there for sure. Now, Panama, Thomas Christensen is the coach, has been since 2020, so he knows Burr-Alter. How much of a factor do you think that is? I don't know that him knowing Burrhalter is a huge factor, although I don't think it hurts anything.

I just think that Thomas Christensen is a lot of ways an X factor. You know, Panama made the 2018 World Cup with this historic generation of guys that U.S. fans will remember. Blas Perez, Hema Pinedo, Felipe Baloy, who's now coaching, just won the Panamanian League as a manager. You know, like there's all these guys that I think most of your listeners will remember. And then 2022 comes and Christensen's a manager and they didn't make it. And I think a lot of countries would have immediately kicked their manager to the curb and with some reason. But Panama put their faith in Christensen and I think is pretty clearly become the best national team in Central America, surpassing Costa Rica. Every time they play Costa Rica right now, they win.

So it's pretty tough to argue otherwise. And I think that Christensen, you know, his knowledge of Burrhalter and the region is helpful. because he's had the different matchups and the tactical battles and film sessions looking at the U.S., you know, I think that can be helpful going into a tournament like this where there's maybe, you know, the group games, there's a fair amount of preparation time, but once you get to the knockout stage, it's pretty chaotic. That can be helpful, but I just think that his presence and the way that Panama has approached kind of team building has been helpful. And I think that that's what makes him more than any knowledge of Burrhalter critical. for Panama. So they won two, well, they have two World Cup qualifiers

coming up in the next few days against Guyana on Thursday and Montserrat on Sunday. Those aren't really ideal tune-ups, but they'll have to do. They then face Paraguay and a friendly, and then it's right into the Copa against Uruguay for the first group stage match on the 23rd in Miami. You were at the nation's league games, right?

Or you covered them, yeah. I was there. What was your take on there, that 3-0 loss to Mexico for Panama? When I've talked to Christensen every time, we talk about how to take that next step, how to get over the hump. And it definitely, to me, even when they get smacked around a little bit by Mexico, it seems to me that that step is getting smaller and smaller, but it's one they still have to take. and I think that they were better than the scoreline showed in that game. I agree.

The third place game was a bit odd. Panama, if I remember correctly, had more of the ball, had good chances, but couldn't beat Andre Blake. Jamaica hits on the counter like they do. And Panama loses third place, which, you know, I mean, there were probably 5,000 people, myself included, to see it because everyone was getting ready for the final,

which, you know, totally understandable. But ultimately, I think that Panama, you know, they're still not in the place where they want to be. They're still not at the level of Costa Rica 2014 where you say this is maybe the second best national team in Conccaf, maybe the first best national team in Concordcaf. I think they're still clearly behind the U.S. and Mexico, but I think they're right there as a third and fourth with Jamaica. Because, again, of the continuity that Christensen's had, I just feel like the player pool while good is not amazing. and they're still trying to get some of those players consistently playing at the top level and they don't have it.

So it's a certain it'll be a good test for them as well, right? Yeah, I mean, I guess I thought when I watched that Mexico-Panamo game, that Panama was actually quite threatening. They just couldn't, they just couldn't quite make it happen. Well, they can't score. I mean, that's like kind of the question sort of is, like, is there another blast bed is somewhere kicking around? There literally is his son, but he's not ready.

for the national team. He's kicking around. But, you know, like, you have Jose Farhardo and Cecilia Waterman is like their potential central forward options, but they really, really struggle to finish off plays. And so I think that, like, often Panama has these good builds through the wings. Michael Murillo, who was not available for the Nations League,

is healthy and fit for this tournament, a full-back place from Marseille, like, will be extremely important. But then someone has to put the ball in that. It's been Ismail Lillas, who plays more as a winger, and I think like you just don't have that central forward threat that that that blasperes provided for a decade, right? So the question is kind of like, hey, who's going to actually put the ball in the back of the net? Because with Coco, with the Oi, like they can control a game. They can be smart.

But often they can't finish the play. Sorry, we'll see. No, that's okay. So Coco is Carasquilla? Yeah, Coco Caraski. Okay. Yeah, you know, just to read some top line stats real quick from that game, I didn't realize it was dispronounced, but it was,

Panama had 59% possession against Mexico. Now, these stats don't mean everything, but they mean something. 59% possession, 18 shots, 5 on target, to 6 shots, 6 on target for Mexico. And the score is 3-0 Mexico. So, you know, that's soccer. But they're, yeah, I think they're, they looked pretty good in that game.

And I would, I guess I would explain. them to take care of business against Bolivia, wouldn't you? Yeah, I think so. I mean, I think that if you're Panama preparing this tournament, you know it's ambitious, but you have to go in kind of expecting to beat Bolivia, probably lose to Uruguay, and then the deciding matches this one in Atlanta, right? Historically, and in recent history says the U.S. is stronger than Panama, and they are, but at the same time, like, Gold Cup two summers ago, right?

Like, it's not that Panama can never, ever beat the U.S. That was a weird situation. It wasn't the strongest roster. But I think, like, if you're Panama, you have to be circling this game specifically on the calendar and saying, if we're going to be the shock team of the tournament, we got to beat the U.S. Yeah. I guess they'll be bringing everything in that game now that you say that.

Almost midlife crisis in Germany. asks, I think with his tongue in his or her tongue in his or her cheek, in their cheek, with first and second feeling very chalk, does group C have the most compelling race for third place? I'm going to say, no, it's not compelling. Yeah, I don't think so either, to be honest. First of all, third place gets you nothing. And second, when you look at some of the other groups, I think A and B are both like a little more tasty, I guess, spicy. For group A, our friends in Canada have a legitimate opportunity to get second place in that group.

I think Argentina will win it, but Peru is bad. And Chile is in like this interesting transition mode with the former Peru manager. So they think they'll go through, but they might not. And then in group B, it's Mexico, Ecuador, Venezuela, Jamaica. I think that that quote unquote, race for third and race for second is also like pretty interesting. Maybe you say, hey, like actually who will get third? places up in the air. I'm more interested in some of the other groups, to be honest.

I mean, Ecuador, the favorite in group B, right? They're playing well and fine. Yeah, I think they have to be, but then right after that, I think, like, Venezuela feels like it's on the rise. Solomon Rondon is scoring goals in Conccaf, but Mexico and Jamaica both have had some good things to build on in Conccaf recently, have star names, and I think, you know, can also think that they're going to get out. So to me, that that's like the most open group as a whole.

But group A second place to me is the most open slot as like, I really don't know who's going to take that spot. Okay. All right, let's move on to Uruguay. I think Marcello Bielsa has them winning. They are, they beat Brazil and Argentina in qualifiers last fall. They're four one and one in qualifying so far, second only to Argentina and the table. The only loss has been in Quito against Ecuador, another very difficult place to play.

Obviously stacked, Darwin Nunez up top, Federico Valverde, fresh office Champions League triumph in the midfield, defenders at Barcelona and Napoli. I promise I'll let you talk, John, but I want to briefly mention Fokundo. Petli Street. Every time I pull up footage of this team, he pops, and he's number 11, plays as a winger, kind of looks like a page for a senator from a southern state. But it's just electrifying on the ball, quite a creator. He's a Manchester United player, but hasn't really broken into the team there. Went on loan to Granada and got two goals, two assists in their slide to relegation this spring. But don't let that fool you. I think he's going to be in front.

impressive, I think, to U.S. fans. Ian, I think he and Uruguay in general is like a good case pushing back against this idea that like, oh, the starting 11 and the entire squad needs to just be like impressive teams. Yes, of course, he's on the books at like a big, big team. But in his actual day to day, he's not. And Uruguay, Bielsa, look, like you can say, well, look, they have Nunez, they have Valverde, who just won the Champions League.

Uvarte, I think is really, really key in the midfield. He plays for PSG. But at the same time, like Sebastian Caseres often starts in defense. He's at Club America, although he might go to a big European league the summer. Nicolas de la Cruz is sometimes in there as the 10, as like the most important kind of playmaking player on the field. He plays in Brazil. They're goalkeepers based in Brazil.

So I think you can sort of Maxio Rao, who probably will start as the other winger plays in Liga-A-Mexis as well. So I think that you can look at this team and say, now, sometimes those guys are, you are starting over players that are at more impressive clubs. Betancourt, a guy who plays in the Premier League, right? Like, he is often sitting on the bench because these other guys are in. And they've got, like, Jimenez from Adleri is on the bench. And you have a very stacked team, as you're saying.

But I think this idea of, oh, it's just got to do a best club. It's wrong. Yeah, it's wrong. Yeah. Yeah. And then, of course, Luis Suarez, I think he's on the roster, isn't he? He's, well, let's double check. Kavanaugh retired.

I think Suarez is in. Okay. Yeah, that is interesting, the League Emeki's contingent, not just on the Uruguay side, but on a lot of these teams, you know, in the Colombian national team. I guess to Uruguay specifically, the win over Argentina in November at the Bombinera is, I think, instructive. They largely conceded possession gave up. no real chances, however, other than a couple of strikes from distance. They were ultimately the more dangerous team, and they scored twice on the break to win two zero in what, you know, just an incredibly intense atmosphere.

They're just so hard to break down. And then so dangerous coming back the other way, it's going to be a tough one in Kansas City, I think. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, in that game specifically, you saw, you know, sometimes we talk about a team in two banks of four, like if they're playing a four-four-two or something. You know, in that game, they had kind of like a bank of four and a bank of three just centrally to try and get the ball off Messi.

And it worked. You know, Messi was really frustrated. They don't always clog the middle as much as they did that game, but that was clearly the game plan and then hitting quickly in transition. The high press is really good, too. Nunez is a pest. And I think that, you know, when there is a press trigger, whether it's a centerback,

they feel is bad on the ball or a midfielder who they think they can pick off. They get the ball back and they attack quick. Those transition moments under Bielsa's system are so, so critical, and that's why you see a lot of teams that have a Bielsa style or a manager of influenced by Bielsa kind of emphasizing those moments. I think the other thing to note is that I think they really, because of that speed and transition, they eat up bad passes. In some of the other qualifiers, there's a pass that goes to the center,

back and immediately he starts carrying the ball forward to create that numerical difference. And then he can off hold the ball because he's a good passing centerback. And you see a lot of the breaks started from centerback, which I think is different than how we think of a lot of counterattacking teams where we think, oh, well, you know, like they might win a header on a corner and that's where they start the counter. It really can come from anywhere. And I think that's something that you have to watch both when you consider how to defend and also how to make sure that they don't get off and running when you put a pass wrong or try a line breaking pass that's too ambitious.

So it's a really, really good team. I'm doing a power rankings for one of my freelance clients that hopefully people will read and enjoy it. I've got them second. I think they're the best team after Argentina. I think they're better than Brazil right now. And that's how I see them. I mean, I just think that it's a really, really good team under Bielso with the quality

they have throughout the squad, with the ability to get more from. some of these players who you might not expect them to get more from. To me, when you look at the results and Brazil's form, I think they're the second best team in the tournament. Can you give me the sort of $2.00 explanation of how Bielsa's teams play? Because, I mean, I know a lot of people know this, but it's not just high press all the time, obviously. You're talking about these transition.

Yeah, I mean, part of the reason that the preparation of Bielsa and the local nickname and that kind of thing comes into play is that he will intensely and intimately know every player from every team and say this player is our press trigger and when this guy who's weak on the ball has the ball at his feet that's when we press yes the press is happening often and I think like when he's had a club season that's where some of the criticism comes in right oh press press press press press and then the players are tired for the last 10 games but at the international level with these guys bought in, with all of them respecting Bielsa like they do, I think that, you know, you can sustain that by pressing in only certain moments.

Bielsa's system is high press for sure, but I think, you know, in a tournament that's short like this with these top level players, you can pull that off. You know, I mentioned a miracle superiority. That's another concept that comes from this where you can say, if we have five players in this attacking zone and you only have four players defending it. How do we get that loose man, that free man, and take advantage of having that numerical superiority in this zone. Sometimes it is, like that goal they scored against Argentina is a good example where there's a press in the corner. Uruguay wins the ball back and the numerical superiority is right there in that zone. But they don't take advantage of it by moving the ball around in that zone. They take advantage of it by

switching the field, knowing that they're going to have created a one-on-one opportunity on the other side. So Rao arrives from the fullback position, being ready for that quick transition, he rushes up, even though they're in a defensive shape. As soon as it goes to attack, he rushes up, he's one-on-one in the box and is able to finish past the Argentina goalkeeper for, I think that was the opener in the first half. So you have this idea of numerical superiority that doesn't always necessarily result in, oh, we have five here, you have four-wheel ping, and around and beat you in that zone, sometimes it results in, we've created an imbalance in another zone and now we're going to know how to exploit it. So that's another Bielsa concept that I think,

you know, gets used a lot and spoken about a lot. It's kind of funny, like language comes into this a lot. Belsus translator quite famous. I don't hear English speaking managers talk a lot about numerical superiority. They'll express it in different words, but that's all the time. Latin American manager talking about numerical superiority, numerical superiority, numerical superiority. So I think like, Yeah, that's not very good a summation of some of the concepts that you'll see this Bielsa would have put on the field. And some of those concepts that like, I think it was quite good. Thanks, man.

And some of those concepts that like when you watch this tournament in general, the reason that nerds like us nerd out about Bielsa is because some of these managers have taken those Bielsa concepts and pushed them forward. Some of those managers have taken Bielsa's concepts and put their own fingerprints on them. and you can still see those concepts, but they're obviously a little different. And obviously, Bielsen himself has evolved too, right? Like he wouldn't be doing what he still does

if he weren't adaptive and having new ideas. But those foundations, when we talk about soccer in Latin America, there's a reason that everyone sort of venerates this guy that I've got a couple buddies who have his face tattooed on him somewhere because he is that sort of like revered and that much of a religious figure in a lot of ways. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. It is cool to see his videos where he, like, somebody's trans.

I mean, I can't speak Spanish, but where somebody's translated at all, because you get the sense that he's like a special man. All right. Connor in Northeast Minneapolis asks, how disappointing would it be if no Conca Caff teams get past the first knockout round? And how does Commonwealth view their northern neighbors? I think it would be brutal. Yeah, it would be brutal, though.

If Conccaf doesn't get a team out of the first round, I mean, that is a horrendous sign of where the standard is at in that hypothetical scenario. Partly because, no, listen, partly because Group B is two Concaf teams and two Commonwealth teams. So if you can't get one of them past there, then it's like, what happened here? I think there should be. Well, I think he's asking, he's asking not getting out of the group. He's asking, well, maybe he's in the semifinals.

I'm not sure. I think that the expectation for, and we'll get into the U.S. expectation in a minute, but I think the expectation from a 60,000-foot view for the region is that there should be a team in the semifinals, right? Even when you look at how the bracket breaks down and the U.S. is going to have a tough game if they get out and Brazil is going to, or Mexico is going to have a tough game if they get out. And I think you should still say, like, we should have a team in the final four of this. It's happened in the past. Well, I shouldn't happen now. I don't see any reason that it shouldn't happen.

It's not going to be easy. There are difficult matchups, but I think that when you look at kind of what could happen, there should be an expectation that a team at least give their best shot in the quarterfinals. And I think that getting out of the group, there should be an expectation that at least two teams, probably three, get into the quarterfinals. Maybe that I don't know.

Maybe that's a little optimistic. Like it does, but when after the top heaviness of Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, I'll put Columbia in that group as well. You get this sort of mishmash of teams that are either in transition or just not very good right now. And I think like if the Conccaf teams that think they are going to have good World Cup cycles in 2026 can't get past those teams, their goals they're setting for 2026 aren't actually within, as within reaches they seem to think. Yeah, no, that's fair. I guess I could just see, I mean, just to play devil's advocate, I could totally see a Brazil, Colombia,

Uruguay, no, I guess Uruguay, wouldn't go there too. So I could totally see a Brazil, Uruguay, Ecuador, and Argentina, Final Four. For sure. I mean, it's, Mexico's not that good right now. I mean, maybe they're going to turn the corner this summer. but yeah, I don't know. It absolutely could happen. It absolutely could happen.

And you could get fewer teams in the quarters, right? Like you could just have only the U.S. going through or only Mexico or Canada going through. That's totally a feasible scenario, something you can imagine. But I think like the expectation has to be and the standard has to be that they do get out. And I, you know, it's funny because I've kind of come around on this idea. Like there was this idea in the U.S. fandom for a long time that, hey, if the U.S. press was angrier, then maybe we would get further results. And I've always said, if that was true, Mexico would be the World Cup champion.

They've never won it therefore. We know the angry of the press doesn't necessarily mean the better the team. But I do think that internally within the national teams, the expectation needs to keep growing. And I think, you know, yes, you have to take small steps. Yes, you're not going to win a World Cup overnight. but at the same time, this tournament is a really good opportunity for Mexico, for the United States, for Canada, for Panama, to put themselves to the test and see exactly where they are ahead of 2026.

And I think that if you are at the standard, if Mexico or the U.S. makes the semifinals or makes the final or wins the tournament, then clearly, yes, things are on the right track heading into 2026. And if they don't, they are clearly not. And you've got to do something about it. If they don't, so let's talk about the part about if they don't. If they don't, if the U.S. and Mexico don't make the semifinals, then, because I, you know, there's a lot of discourse going on around this right now for the U.S.

I'm paying attention to that most of all. For sure. Some people would say we have to make the semifinals or else it's a failure. I think that's dangerous. I think that's dangerous to set that up. Mexico's done that in the past. We must make the fifth game of the World Cup. If we don't, it's a failure.

And in some ways, yes. In other ways, like in 2018, so many things went weird at the World Cup where Mexico was in great shape heading into the final day of the World Cup group. They got destroyed in that game. They somehow got this breath of life, somehow, thanks to Korea, going to the knockout stage, and nope, it's Brazil, and it's a pretty good Brazil at that, and they get eliminated from the World Cup and don't make the fifth game. Was that a failure?

Yeah, you didn't meet your goal, but is that tear it all down? burn things, the system doesn't work, no, right? So I think that from U.S. fans in this tournament in Copa America, it's totally reasonable to say the expectations should be to make the semifinal. And yet, if you lose 2-1 to Brazil and the 90th minute winner in the quarterfinal, and you stay at the quarterfinal stage, is that a failure? Probably not. But it depends on how the results are achieved and that kind of thing. I think that's where it can get dangerous to just say, semi-final or bust. To me, that is where the U.S. should expect to be if they think that they are going to be a competitor for the World Cup in 2026 when it's on home soil.

If that's the goal, which I think it is, then you should try and get to the semi-finals. I mean, you should try and win the tournament, but you should be expected to get to the semi-final of this tournament. But it all depends on results, right? It all depends on the way things happen, on the way things break down. Because look, something weird could happen too where you're playing Colombia in the quarterfinal. You could probably be Colombia, right? You could probably be Brazil.

but the history, the player pool, all these different things factor in that make it different and kind of add different context and flavor to the game that I think is important when we judge a tournament in retrospect. I'm saying all that, but I still believe the standard should be set very high for these Conccaf teams going into this tournament. Yeah, fair enough. Yeah, I think it's interesting all the gradations of analysis because the last time there was a Copa in the U.S., the U.S. made the semifinals, right? Yes. And it was, and it was, so people would say, well, we made the semifinals before, we should do it again, or else it's a failure.

And you look back on that tournament. Well, the only team, you know, only team we beat sort of above expectations was Ecuador. And then we played Argentina in the semifinals and got absolutely smoked. Didn't go up. Just out with a whimper. And I mean, it was that really that impressive of a tournament from the U.S.? I mean, it was good, I think, especially for the time. Yeah, and look at what happened to Mexico in that tournament.

They lose by a touchdown to Chile in San Francisco at Levi's. Oh, that's right. And then in 2018, had the World Cup that I'm mentioning where they seemed like they could have been able to, you know, they stuck with their manager, they didn't fire Osorio, and then Osorio takes them to what for me is the best World Cup that Mexico has had in kind of like the modern era, although they didn't make the Quinto Bartil, obviously. Yeah, it's funny because we,

I say we, because I know your audience and you are obsessed with the international game, and yet our sample size is always so small, right? Right. And that, but that bad for me is why, even though I'm rarely the fire the coach guy, I'm rarely everything is bad guy, for me, since you have such a small sample size,

and it's even smaller for the U.S., Mexico and Canada, heading into the 2026 World Cup that they're hosting. To me, this is the last time you really have to say, here's our measuring stick, where are we on it? And if we're not where we need to be, you have to make change. I understand, you know, I totally buy what you're saying of, hey, like, if the standard is based on the 2016 Centenario,

a weird tournament, a tournament that kind of popped up out of nowhere that the U.S. did well in, but does the Argentina, a game in 2016 indicate success, it didn't, right? And the U.S. didn't have success. I think, like, it's easy to sort of, yes, take too much from one game or two games or a tournament. But at the same time, what else can you do? Like, what else can you analyze off of, right?

Right, that's true. It's true. It's true. You're right. Yeah, it looked like we were pretenders at the end of that Argentina game. Like we had been posing as a soccer team up until that point. I mean, which seems a little harsh, but, you know, And I guess I would say if we go, if we beat, if we take care of business and beat Bolivia and Panama, then we go to Kansas City, play a good game against Uruguay. I cannot go into that expecting we're going to beat them. And then play another good game against Brazil in the quarterfinals, even if we lose. I mean, that's about what I expect, you know?

Yeah. I expect us to play hard and put a respectable performance. out there against both of those teams and lose. I mean, that's what I, that's what I would expect. Yeah, and that's totally fair. I think, like, the question and the sort of, like, desire, right, is, like, when does that expectation shift? And again, I'm saying, I'm laying out my pipe dream of, like, one day the club game in the

U.S. and Mexico and Canada will be such that. We don't need to send all our players to Europe because the best academies are here and the best players are formed here and everything. And, like, you know, Luke, you can tell by the gray in my beer. I'm not getting any younger. I don't know if that's going to happen in my lifetime, right? But that's what I would like to see happen as someone who loves soccer in this country, in this region, in this little corner of the world.

And I think that that's where you say, okay, if not now, 2026, World Cup, it's here, then win. And that might be an unfair standard as well, right? It might not be fair to say we should win the World Cup or we should be here, whether it's Mexico, Canada, U.S., whatever, in 2026, but, that also is the standard that I think is being set up for these teams and probably should be if that doesn't happen, which I agree with you. I don't think it will. I don't think the U.S. wins a World Cup in 2026. Then you reevaluate and reset the goals. But I think that to me,

this tournament is a critical juncture for these concapped teams because if you are not competing with the elite of conmable now, and you're saying the expectation is probably to lose to Uruguay, probably lose to Brazil. I agree. That's fair. When does that start to change, right? Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, also fair. Also fair. So for the next 30 minutes, let's talk about promotion relegation. No, I'm just kidding. I do think it is interesting to think about when does that start to change? I mean, my answer to that,

very briefly, if you'll indulge me, is when we have a deep enough soccer culture to, I mean, so we can do everything we do all sorts of things with the development pathway, you know, the sort of technical structure of the system. That's all great and that work needs to be done. But until kids are growing up in small towns in America where like everybody loves soccer, or maybe not even just everybody, not everybody, but like a lot of people.

And you grow up playing soccer, talking about soccer when you're in kindergarten with your friends. and, you know, learning how to, like, do bicycle kicks and stuff. I mean, do, like, cool stuff with the ball. Until it's, until that is much more widespread in this country, I don't think, I don't see how we can, I don't see how we can expect to beat a team like Brazil, where they're just, like, churning out people who are steeped in that rich soccer culture and also, you know, happen to be world-class athletes. So, I don't know.

Yeah, it seems like a, it's a long-term thing. I definitely think it's a long-term thing, but it increasingly seems like it might be happening, right? At least to me. Awesome. At least to me. I mean, Dallas is kind of a shining light in the country, I think. In some things. Not in urban planning.

Yeah, trust me. The traffic to get to Jerry World tells me that's not quite right. But no, I think, yeah, there is a soccer, but even then, right, you're like, well, what if the soccer culture was nurtured by an MLS team that was in the city, right? What if the soccer culture was nurtured by, you know, there's a lot, we're quite macro here, which I think is fine. But like, yeah, I mean, there's, there's so many things that could still be done better to get kids excited to play soccer, to be good at soccer, to be playing soccer in the streets, in the parks, whatever here, even though Dallas has produced its fair share of talent. You know, you mentioned, hey, what about a small, a kid in a small town who. loves soccer and grows up playing against, you know, older brother, T.O. whatever, that's Clint Dempsey, bro. That's Clint Dempsey. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But how do we get more? I mean, I think that's part of why Clint Dempsey is, that's part of why he's such a compelling figure, you know? He is like a true working class sort of hero. And I think people love that about him. Yeah, with the added, like, sort of element that he should never have had to drive three hours to

get into the coaching structures that I'm talking about, right? Where I say, like, the Dallas Texans were an academy at that time where you're saying, oh, the coaching here might not be quite on par with what you would get at PSG or Iax or wherever, but like pretty good coaching better than you can get in Nacadocious. But what if we took that coaching to Nacadocious and then raise the level of the Texans or now FC Dallas or whatever academy you want to put? what if we raise the standard of that coaching to the level of iax PSG so when 15 year old clint dempsey moves to the residency program in Dallas he is at a level such that he doesn't need to go to college or to mLS he jumps immediately to maybe an mLS team at that point that's the

best team in the world or whatever right but these are dreams man these are dreams we're definitely not there right now so uh USA would have why good i love the dream i love dreams we got to have scuffed. So, John, thank you so much. We're going to try to do another episode before Copa hits. And so stay tuned for that, everybody. Do you want to tell everybody where to find you? I'll put the link to the newsletter in the show notes.

Cannot recommend it enough. Anything else you want to say? Yeah, subscribe to the newsletter. If you like this, pay for the newsletter. After you pay for scuffed, of course. It's super helpful as far as, like, I'm doing my, Copamica planning and it's like I got to get a hotel in this city and that city and and you know the budget is a real thing your five dollars a month or fifty dollars a year really really helps

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