Sea Control - Sea Control 172 - Mexican Maritime Security with Christian Ehrlich

Episode Date: May 4, 2020

Links:1. Mexican Defense and Security (Spanish language)2. Pirates Ignore Quarantine, Attack Four Ships in One Week3. Mexican Strategic Landscape4. Pirates Raid Ships in the Gulf of Mexico

Hey folks, it's Jared. Thanks for tuning in again. Today we have Mexican Naval Analyst Christian Ehrlich joining the pod. We'll be talking about Mexican maritime security, piracy in the Gulf of Mexico, the role of the Mexican Marine Corps, and the vibrant Mexican shipbuilding industry. I also wanted to highlight SimSec's Project Trident. If you don't follow SimSec on Twitter, go do so now or visit the website at simsec.org. If you're interested in shaping the future of international maritime security, this is your opportunity. Our first call for essays is out. We've partnered with Marine Corps University's Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Creativity to address strategic choke points and littorals. More information on questions and content can be found on our website at simsec.org.

Submissions are due by May 25th and can be emailed to content at simsec.org. With that, I'll turn it over to Kimber's men. You're listening to Sea Control, hosted by the Center for International and Maritime Security. Hello shipmates and welcome aboard Sea Control. Today we're discussing Mexican maritime challenges and strategy. Our guest is Christian Ehrlich. Christian specializes in Mexican maritime security. As always, our views are our own and not representative of any institution with which we may be associated. Today we're going to start a little bit differently because I have a confession that for months now I thought Christian was a German based on his name

who decided to specialize in the Mexican Navy, but that is not the case at all. So, Christian, why don't we start by you telling us a little bit about your background. Yeah, thanks indeed. Well, yes, my name is German, but I am Mexican. My father was a Luftwaffe officer, but he somehow moved to Mexico back in the 60s and the whole story began. Well, I'm based here in Monterrey, Mexico, which is in the north of the country, pretty close to Texas. I run a company which is called RISCOP. RISCOP is a risk intelligence and security company.

And over the past 10 years, we have helped both civilian organizations and also government enterprises to understand the security landscape in Mexico, both on land and on sea. I've also worked for the Mexican Navy as a research associate at the Mexican Navy Institute for Strategic Research. It's no longer happening, but I spent three years there. Those were pretty, pretty good years. Well, I'm happy to talk to you, especially amid this personal crisis. It's pretty nice to talk about issues that have nothing to do with the coronavirus

and actually have to do about very, very important aspects of our economies and our policies, which is maritime security. Well, with all that said, I hope I'm not going to ruin your day by asking how you are holding up with everything that's going on. And I assume that you're locked in your house just like the rest of the world appears to be. Yeah, indeed. I've been in lockdown mode since March 10th, I think. We, along with my family, decided to protect ourselves way before the government announced those measures. And I think we are doing just fine, of course, as you said before. We were not prepared for this, but I think we are coping with this pretty good. Thanks for asking.

I hope you're doing also fine. Yeah, we are hanging in. I have been pleasantly surprised. I guess I should say we're recording this April 6th, so I know it'll air later. And just to contextualize it, that is the date that we're recording. Yeah, I've been pleasantly surprised by how much I've taken to telework. i have a small child who just loves to smash through the door asking for hugs i will tell you when you're dealing with a stressful day but there are a few things better than a little 16 month old

coming in she wants a hug she wants to be taken over to the cabinet where we have the licorice i'm happy to interrupt whatever telcon i happen to be on to go do that it warms my heart a little bit and then okay back to the grind working excel spreadsheets and everything else i'm doing but i assume uh i assume this is probably the first time teleworking for you as well yes yes actually i do this from time to time but not on a daily basis so it's also a new thing for me but as i said to you before i think we are doing just fine and we hope that while doing our parts. We help our countries to get rid of this situation and get back to normality as soon as we can. Absolutely. So let's return for normality here and set COVID-19 aside for a little bit and

talk some national security issues for Mexico. Can you ask a little bit more about your background here, how and why did you decide to study sea power? Yeah, sure. Well, five years ago, I got a scholarship by the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.

I went there alongside two colleagues of the Mexican Navy, and we spent there like a month, also with colleagues from the rest of the hemisphere, and we were discussing about national security threats and risks and issues related to our countries.

And despite the fact that Mexico has been experiencing some very big troubles or big issues in terms of internal security, there's also something going on on the sea. And no one seems to be taking this situation seriously besides the Navy of course, but in the civilian side of the, let's say the civilian analyst, no one is actually looking to it. So that's when I decided to start studying sea power in general and more specifically issues related to maritime security in Mexico. Thanks. And I'm used to talking about NATO and our allies in the Pacific, specifically Australia, South Korea, Japan, a lot of alliance-based national security issues.

The Mexican Navy has some distinctly different challenges. You mentioned a lot of it, I think, is focused on the domestic situation. Does it have alliances, and how do those drive Mexican Navy strategy? Well, first, let me elaborate a little bit more about the Mexican Navy as a force. The Mexican Navy has roughly 55,000 to 60,000 personnel. Of them, roughly 15,000 to 20,000 are Mexican Marines, and they are 100% focused on helping police forces and the army to fight drug cartels. But the rest of the Navy is devoted mostly to Coast Guard duties.

So if we think of Kenwood's triangle, we could say that the Mexican Navy is 95% devoted to maritime security. Let's say counter narcotics operations on sea, countering illegal fisheries, mostly on the Pacific. also the mexican navy is devoted to to tackle piracy on the gulf of mexico which is a growing threat that's a i'm very concerned about it because piracy acts have been increasing over the past two years and the other five percent of the mexican navy is devoted to foreign defense so Let's say that we do have a Navy with a Coast Guard capability and, for instance, a very small, very limited foreign defense and power projection capability. Now, going back to your question, the Mexican Navy is working very closely with the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Navy. The Navy has naval attaches at South Com in Florida, also at NORAD.

And I could say that the relationship between the Mexican Navy and our American counterparts is pretty solid, despite politics, both in Mexico and the U.S. But the relationship between the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Coast Guard and the Mexican Navy is pretty solid. And I think that's a very, very good aspect of U.S.-Mexico relationship. And I think that it will continue despite what happens within the U.S. in terms of the upcoming election and also despite what happens to Mexican internal politics. You mentioned piracy as a rising threat, and that's a little new to me hearing about in the Gulf of Mexico. Is that specific to Mexican waters or is that occurring in international waters in the Gulf as well? And what do you think is driving that? Well, first, you have to recall that on the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico has a lot of oil platforms. And over the past two years, there's been an increasing amount of attacks, or let's call it how they are called, piracy acts against some of those platforms and also against ships. Of course, they mostly happen within Mexican waters, so they are not called piracy in terms of the international law.

But they are piracy acts, and the Mexican Navy doesn't have enough resources to track, locate, and stop those pirates or those organized crime thugs, maritime thugs, that can go to the sea and commit those acts almost unnoticed. And that's a very concerning issue. And again, the Mexican Navy doesn't have the resources it needs to actually stop that from happening. But again, this is happening mostly on the Gulf of Mexico and not on the Pacific. On the Pacific, we have a very different scenario, mostly in terms of drug trafficking and illegal fisheries. But on the Gulf of Mexico, that's a big concern. You mentioned the Gulf of Mexico side is a little bit more challenging than the Pacific side. Where are the units based on the Gulf of Mexico side? I'm not as familiar with Mexican base architecture as I am with some other countries. Well, the Mexican Navy has many bases located both on the Gulf and the Pacific. on the specifically on the gulf of mexico there are uh let's say uh mid-sized to big size

nabal bases on mostly on vera cruz which is at the center of the gulf of mexico also if you go a little bit to the north on tuxpan also in the state of vera cruz and if you go a little bit more to the north there's another important base on on Tampico, which is located in the state of Tamaulipas. There are many other small bases, but I should say that those three bases are the most important on the Gulf of Mexico. What type of units operate from those bases? I imagine these are roughly equivalent to U.S. Coast Guard cutters, but the size is a question to me. No, you're right. Mostly offshore patrol vessels and coastal patrol vessels alongside what we call interceptor ships, which are small polaris ships that go very fast.

And roughly, as you said, the equivalent to the U.S. Coast Guard means that's what we have on the Gulf of Mexico. So you mentioned the acts of piracy taking place. Are the pirates organized in any way, or are they pretty much isolated into just small groups of criminals with no overarching plan for the way that they operate? now they they are part of organized crime syndicates inside mexico which are devoted both to drug trafficking but also to fuel theft fuel theft in mexico is also a big concern inland Mexico, but also on the Gulf of Mexico. We have heard about these groups attacking ships on the Gulf of Mexico, big fuel ships, and stealing the fuel they carry. So in my opinion, as long as the Mexican Navy doesn't get enough resources,

at least to double the resources it already has there. As long as it doesn't increase its maritime domain awareness capabilities, such as intelligence and aircraft-based surveillance, this will just grow. You brought up MDA, and that was actually going to be my next question for you. Is there any sort of aerial surveillance? Do the Mexicans operate P-3s, anything like that to attempt to better cover the Gulf? Well, actually, the Navy has some very interesting and highly capable marching patrol aircraft, mostly CASA CN-235 Persuader aircraft, and also small beachcrafts with also, let's say, antennas or radars below the fuselage.

We do have good resources in that regard, but still we need a lot more. You brought up the Marine Corps. A 15,000 to 20,000-person Marine Corps is actually a pretty sizable unit in that they're dedicated to law enforcement. Do they actually function in amphibious capability? Does the Navy move them around to support law enforcement? No. So, unfortunately, the Mexican Marines lack sufficient, let's say, minimal amphibious capabilities.

Since our naval doctrine is not oriented towards force deployment or to take part in international peacekeeping operations, So far, at least so far, the Mexican Navy hasn't invested in amphibious capabilities. That's sad because, you know, when the Mexican Navy takes part in international exercises such as UNITAS or RIMPAC, we must take our Marines on board U.S. Navy ships and train them. And that's just fine. But we don't have those resources in Mexico. And let's hope that in the in the next 10 years, the Mexican Navy may may get some of them. You had mentioned doubling the resources. How large is the Navy? I understand the 55 to 60,000 number and the difference between the Navy versus the Marine Corps. How many ships are we talking about operating? Well, the Mexican Navy has about 30 to 35 operational offshore patrol vessels and a bit more than 10 or maybe 15 coastal patrol vessels for the entire country. And it's a very reduced force.

If you think of Mexico's maritime domain, it's 3 million square kilometers, and we have 11,000 kilometers of coastlines, both on the Pacific and on the Gulf of Mexico. So when I said to you that we need to double at least our resources, maybe I'm just falling short. Yeah, it's always a question of what is actually possible in the fiscal environment. And as our respective governments deal with COVID-19, there may be even fewer resources than we see available today. I have been on one of the Interceptor class, though I have to say that for a smaller ship that is extremely capable, I remember going inside the bay where the vessel's small boat is kept. If you've never seen one, it's a really intimidating small boat that you have in there. The boat itself looks like a missile with fangs on the front of it.

If I saw that thing coming at me, I would immediately stop and do whatever the person coming towards me was going to ask me to do. Are there any metrics for whether or not the Mexican Navy is having success in its maritime-devoid awareness? You sort of hinted that it's not being successful, but the challenge for the U.S. is always, you know we understand how much of the narcotics piece we're taking out we don't necessarily understand the what the bottom part of the iceberg is if you will so if i understand your question you're asking me if i think that if the mexican navy is actually being successful in order to fulfill all all its missions that's the question yeah i did a poor job of framing it yours was actually better but yes like do you think they're being successful

and uh fulfilling what they're doing well i i should say that the mexican navy has been very successful with the resources it has available it's a miracle what they do i really mean it but again uh our maritime domain is so huge and our maritime um challenges are also so So complicated that I don't think that we are understanding the importance of the, not only of the Mexican Navy as an institution, but as the oceans in terms of their strategic value to Mexico. You said before that due to fiscal constraints, it's quite complicated to get the resources our navies need. Yes, that's true. But also, at least in Mexico, it's not only a matter of economic resources. It's not just a matter of a fiscal restraint.

It's a matter of political, let's say, stability. I'm sorry, but our politicians just don't get how important the oceans are for Mexican present and future. If you think of Mexico, we have coasts both on the Gulf and the Pacific, which are the two most important oceans of the world right now. We have a lot of mineral and natural resources on the seabed, and we don't take that domain seriously. So since our political elite doesn't have a maritime culture, they will never devote sufficient resources to the Navy and to the ocean in general. To me, that's the main concern. How is the Navy viewed by the Mexican populace? What place do they occupy in society? Is it kind of an afterthought behind the army, above the army? Well, different surveys and polls suggest that the Mexican Navy is the most highly regarded institution of the entire Mexican government.

And it's been so over the past, I don't know, 15 years or so. So the Navy is a highly respected institution in Mexico, highly regarded and highly admired. But because of what the Navy has done in terms of internal security, countering drug trafficking and so on, that's why the people, I mean, the average Mexican thinks of the Navy as a very solid institution to fight cartels. But if you ask an average Mexican, well, what about the ocean? What about the maritime capabilities of the Navy? They just don't know anything about it. Thanks. So we had talked about amphibious capability a little bit before, but is there any appetite in Mexico, either from the people or the government, for amphibious shipping or some sort of joint support ship?

That seems to be a little bit in fashion with European countries, at least to discuss it, even if they're not actively moving towards acquiring that capability. But we've seen, even here in the U.S., we've seen Mexicans doing disaster relief. I think when Hurricane Katrina hit, there was a convoy of Mexican trucks that came and delivered aid, which seemed to me, particularly given the situation with hurricanes in the Gulf, that some amphibious shipping to deliver humanitarian assistance would be a very easy win for the Mexican government. Yes, I totally agree with you. And actually, during this COVID crisis, the Mexican Navy is moving two former Newport-class ships to serve as hospital ships.

And I think that the Navy is just realizing the enormous potential of these types of ships. And both the ARM Papaloapan and the ARM Usumacinta, which are two unique, really amphibious, capable ships, both ex-Newport class, they should be replaced in the coming future, maybe five to eight years. So I think the Navy should start thinking of building, because we do build our own ships here in Mexico, or acquiring a secondhand Mistral class, maybe, or some LHD or LPD ship from Europe. Nevertheless, so far, there are no plans. There is no money for that, but the need is there. And I do think that once this economic crisis that is coming to us for the next years, I think afterwards, the Mexican Navy will definitely think of acquiring at least one or two of those ships. It should do it.

you mentioned the mexican shipbuilding cape building and i kind of uh skipped over that question but what is the mexican shipbuilding industry like you have multiple yards working to produce ships for the navies or is it relatively concentrated well it's a pretty interesting model the mexican navy builds its own ships since the 1980s It started acquiring the license from Spain to build some offshore patrol vessels called the Uribe-class offshore patrol vessels. And starting in 1985, I think, the Navy began to invest more and more and more in its naval shipbuilding capabilities. And so far, they have done a pretty solid work. You probably have heard about the Daman Sigma frigate that the Mexican Navy built in Mexico in the state of Oaxaca,

which is on the south of the country, on the Pacific side. And in less than two years, the naval shipyard built a highly capable NATO standard frigate. So I think the capabilities are there to build bigger ships, more modern ships. But again, I don't think that the resources will flow to the naval industry in the coming years, sadly. Yeah, I think Domino, I believe, is a Dutch company. And I think what you're referring to is the Reformador. Is that correct? Yeah, it used to be called Reformador until two weeks ago

when the Navy changed the first of class name to Benito Juarez Class. But it's actually a Daman Sigma 105-14 multipurpose frigate. yeah and this is one of the last questions i really had for you was uh one of the things i've noticed and i say noticed changing within the mexican navy but you've referred to this five percent that's really dedicated towards uh power projection foreign defense um you could almost say diplomacy is the rollout of the higher end combatants for the first time so you you said Benito Juarez was the name. Is that correct? Yeah, that's correct.

So she has harpoon missiles, rolling airframe missiles, an eight-cell VSS with evolved Sea Sparrow missiles, Mark 54 torpedoes, a modern electronic warfare suite. This platform would seem to signify a greater ambition for the Navy. The idea that this platform will now be able to operate more frequently with NATO countries and then perhaps deploy with a standing NATO maritime group at some point in the future? Well, I don't think that, I don't see the Mexican Navy sending the Benito Juarez class to take part in a NATO task force, but I mean, not in the short term. But I do see this ship being sent to take part in, let's say, multinational exercises with the U.S. Navy on the Pacific.

Actually, the Benito Juarez is located on… uh but you know um the former reformer class the current benito juarez class represented a doctrinal evolution or maybe a doctrinal change within the mexican navy uh five or six years ago uh during the the last administration but this current administration and i'm not talking about the current naval authorities i'm talking about the president and the new political landscape in Mexico, it changed everything. The priorities changed, and somehow the Navy had to stop thinking of building more ships of that class.

Initially, the Navy wanted to build eight frigates, and it just got one. And we really hope that once this administration passes, maybe the next administration will again look to the Navy the way other past administrations did. But so far, I have to be very honest, I don't think that the Mexican Navy will build one more Benito Juarez multiple-purpose frigate in the next three to four years. I don't see it happening, and I'm pretty sorry about it. That's too bad. Eight of those frigates would be a pretty substantial force. we've talked about the US-Mexico relationship at sea a little bit

is there any other cooperation going on with Mexico's other maritime neighbors? Yes the Mexican Navy has a very substantial cooperation with the Colombian Navy for instance also in terms of

its role against drug trafficking on the sea but mostly with the US I mean, yes, we do have very good relations with our Central American partners, also with the Peruvian Navy, the Chilean Navy, and as I said before, the Colombian Navy. But I think that 95% of our naval cooperation goes with the U.S. Thank you, Christian. I think we're just about out of time. Do you have any final thoughts before I close out here? No, I really thank you for this interview and for your time.

And again, I'm at your service. I thank you for this opportunity, Jared. Thank you, Christian. This was great. And I hope we can get you back on in the future as things evolve. Hopefully, our collective economies will pick back up and be able to see some more of the shipbuilding that you and I have just discussed here. I'd like to thank my guest, Christian Ehrlich.

Christian, where can we find you online and what's next for you? You can find me on Twitter. My Twitter username is CJ Ehrlich. And you can email me on christian.erlich at gmail.com. Thanks, Christian. And for our listeners, thank you for tuning in and we'll see you next week. © transcript Emily Beynon Oh, help me, Bob, I'm bullied in the alley.

Why are they bullying in the alley? Help me, Bob, I'm bullied in the alley. Put it out of the chamber now.