Sea Control - Sea Control 283 - Maritime Sri Lanka & Japan with Dr. Satoru Nagao

Episode Date: October 10, 2021

Links1. Maritime Sri Lanka: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives, edited by Chulanee Attanayake, World Scientific Publishing, January 2021. 

Hey folks, Jared here. Today I'm joined by Dr. Satoru Nagao to discuss his contribution to the compilation Maritime Sri Lanka, a chapter on the Japanese perspective on Sri Lanka. This episode was edited and produced by Alexia Bualagi. We just launched the call for submissions for the SimSec Forum for Authors and Readers over at the main website. There's a particular piece you enjoyed this year, nominate it, and if it gets enough votes you can hear the author present his or her work. We've also officially put out our call for articles for the end-of-year fiction contests, go over to SimSec.org for full details. Finally, I want to take this

opportunity to recommend our partners in the SimSec podcast network, The Bilge Pumps. You can find Alex, Jamie, Drack, and a pile of our own brew bottles wherever you download your podcasts. On that note, I'll turn it over to Kimber's men. You're listening to Sea Control, posted by the Center for International Maritime

Security. Aloha, shimetsu, and welcome back aboard Sea Control. We're back in the Indo-Pacific today with Dr. Satoru Nagao, who's authored a chapter in the book Maritime Sri Lanka entitled Japan's Perspective on Sri Lanka as a Maritime Nation. So, Dr. Nagao, you're new to our listeners. Welcome, and would you mind introducing yourself? My name is Satoru Nagao.

My subject is U.S., Japan, India Security Corporation, because my PhD thesis is focusing on India's military strategy. I really appreciate to join this podcast program, and it is a great honor for me. Thank you, sir. The honors are as a reminder to the listener, all opinions are our own and not representative of any institutions with which we might be otherwise associated. So, Dr. Nogawa, first let's talk about how this chapter of Maritime Sri Lanka came to be. How were you approached? Was this topic your ideas of something you've been studying for a while? Of course, my chapter, Japan's Perspective on Sri Lanka as a Maritime Nation, was based on my original idea. But the idea of the book project, Maritime Sri Lanka, was not mine. This is the idea of Dr. Cherani Atayanayake, a Sri Lankan researcher at Singapore University.

My chapter was focusing on the China factor. Japan-Sri Lanka relations have grown closer since 2014, when Tokyo's perception that China posed a threat. Given China's inroads into Sri Lanka in the recent decade, China is certainly a decisive factor in increasing Japan's Sri Lanka security cooperation. That is my chapter, and that is the motivation and reason. Thank you. So you mentioned 2014, then Prime Minister Abe first visited Sri Lanka back in 2014. How has Japan's relationship with Sri Lanka evolved since then? Ah, since then, Prime Minister Abe has met twice with Sri Lankan, then Prime Minister Ranil Vikramasinha, that has happened in 2015 and 2017, and President Masiri Parasirisena, that has happened in 2016 and 2018. So, furthermore, Japan's highest-ranking military officer, Admiral Katsutoshi Kawano, chief of staff of the Joint Staff, paid an official visit to Sri Lanka in 2018.

Japan's largest warships, Izumo and Kaga, which will become the aircraft carrier, small aircraft carrier, have called at the porch on Colombo since 2017. And by the beginning of 2020, warships of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force called at the port in Sri Lanka more than 14 times, 40 times, or zero. So Japan has already donated two patrol ships to Sri Lanka Navy. And in 2018, Japan and Sri Lanka joined the U.S.-led multinational naval exercises, Rim of the Pacific, RIMPAC, 2018. So these recent Japanese activities are very active and on a completely different level.

These facts indicate that Japan sees Sri Lanka as a real strategic partner. However, recently, this relation has faced some difficulties. In September 2020, the Sri Lankan president ordered immediate termination of Japan-funded light rail project. In February 2021, this year, Sri Lanka decided to scrap the 2019 agreement with Japan and India for operating the East Coast Terminal of Colombo Port. Under the current government of the Rajapaksa family, who accepted China's notorious Hambantota Port project in the past, Japan-Sri Lanka relations face difficulties. There is a possibility that China demands Sri Lanka to cancel the Japan-India project. That is the current situation, unfortunately.

Now, there are three questions that you address in your chapter, and I'm going to ask you to address the first of them. Now, what changes have taken place in the region around Japan? Of course, China's naval activity around Japan has escalated. When we checked the route that China has done, the Chinese Navy has used, it looks like it's surrounding Japan. China set up the two defense lines, first island chain and second island chain. Japan is located in the key area of this defense line. China wants to defend their coastline

because of the cities. Most of the developing cities are located in the coastline of China's mainland, and they want to defend it. Anti-Denial or anti-access is a priority for China, and they want to exclude all of the naval ship was planes inside of the first island chain and that is the lines start from the japan in southwestern island japan the taiwan and the philippines and so china won't exclude all of the

foggy military within the east china sea sea around taiwan and south china sea To achieve this goal, China tried to deploy the Wasei planes around Japan because to exclude the Hougin military, the sea around Japan is a key area. So they used the route between mainland Okinawa Prefecture, Okinawa mainland and Miyakojima Island especially, and go to the Pacific Ocean and simply said they tried to push the Hougin military from Japan to more eastern parts. Under such kind of situation,

Japan is concerning China's activity and Japan is focusing on how to deal with China. In this case, how to divide China's military budget multi-direction is important. And Japan focusing on the cooperation with the backside of China, the east. And that places, there are the South Asia,

India, Sri Lanka, or these countries. And in this case, Sri Lanka is one of the important places. And at the same time, Japan's seal of communication from the Middle East to Japan, which is sealed to import oil, that is the reason Japan needs to safeguard our seal of communications. In this case, Sri Lanka is a very important place. China is increasing the naval activity in the Indian Ocean, too. so that is the reason we focus on Sri Lanka these are the reasons

Japan focusing on Sri Lanka maybe I should explain more but my explanation is a little too long so I should finish it maybe there are only two reasons I explained but maybe one way I should add one more yeah go ahead

I should add one more later because my explanation is a little too long I need to remember the third one indeed no it's no problem um can you explain how the alliance system has shifted around japan from the post-world war ii period to now yes shifted very much but this shift has happened because the u.s strategy has changed post-world war ii we can remember the age of the u.s soviet cold war that time the hub and spoke system is the alliance system created by the united states

This system based on the U.S. alliance with the countries such as Japan, Australia, Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, et cetera, et cetera, to maintain order in the Indo-Pacific. Also, the United States formed an alliance with many countries in East Asia. The close defense relationship was lacking among its allies. For example, both Japan and Australia are U.S. allies. But during the Cold War, there are no close security relations between Japan and Australia. So for U.S., Japan and Australia, both are allies. But for Japan, U.S. is only ally, not Australia. For example, the headquarter of the submarine command of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is a good example.

In the Cold War, the United States demanded Japan to contain the Soviet, USSR's submarine forces, and the United States made Japan possess the top-class anti-submarine capabilities. As a result, despite the submarine headquarters' need to deal with military-sensitive information, it is located within the U.S. naval base in Yokosuka, Japan. But there exists no such kind of deep security connectivity between Japan and Australia. In such context, Japan and Australia being dependent on the U.S. military power and U.S. military information, the hub and spoke system would function effectively if the U.S. had enough military resources to tackle all the problems in this region. But the China's recent behavior, provocative behavior, indicates that this system of alliance

is not enough to deter it. Therefore, the new system has emerged. Several minilateral security cooperation arrangements have recently been formed among the US, Japan, India, or US, Japan, Australia, US, Japan, India, Australia, Singapore, et cetera, et cetera. of these several minilateral security corporations which culminate in the collective security system. And this includes not only US-led corporations, but also the corporations led by a combination

of the countries that do not include the US, such as Japan-India-Australia, Japan-India-Vietnam, India-Australia-Indonesia, or India-Australia-France, this new network is better at promoting security cooperation between U.S. allies than the hub and spoke system, and sharing the security burden. So that is the difference between the old type and new type. Thank you. And I think you addressed my next question, which is going to be regarding the effectiveness of the new system alliances.

I think you actually covered that at the end. So let's jump to your second question, then, is why is Japan choosing to focus on the Indian Ocean now? I think you gave us some of that earlier when you discussed sea lines of communication, but I think there's more there as well. Yeah, that's an important question, because the Indian Ocean is very far from Japan. Recently, China has expanded its activity in the Indian Ocean, which causes worry for the United States and Japan. That is the reason. Beijing insists on having the Malacca dilemma, that it must avoid excessive dependence on the Malacca Strait, which is controlled by the U.S. Navy.

As a result, China is creating alternative routes, such as the Middle East-Pakistan-Hinjiang-Uyghur route, or Middle East-Myanmar-China route. These are a core part of China's Belt and Road Initiative. On one hand, Beijing is investing in the developing ports such as Guadal in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh, or Chao Piu in Myanmar, etc., etc., in the Indian Ocean. Because of the sheer size of China's investment and the 6% to 8% of the interest rate, very high interest rate, it charges on the loans. These countries now have enormous debt. 68% is one kind of a crazy level

because World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, in contrast, charge 0.25% to the 3%. With Hambantota, Sri Lanka was unable to repay its loans. That time, one of the Sri Lankan ministers pointed out that they need 400 years to return. So it just became a victim of China's terrible diplomacy. And in December 2070, China handed over the port to China as a part of a 99-year lease agreement. 99 years.

In Chinese, 99 years means forever. So in the meantime, in order to secure this sea route, China has started to expand its military force in the region. China's expanded military activity in the Indian Ocean since 2009 when it joined anti-piracy measures of the coast of Somalia. Chinese submarines have patrolled since 2012. They say that this submarine is needed for the anti-piracy measures. We cannot believe it. But the Chinese surface fleet also has called at the port.

all the countries around India, including Pakistan, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. According to the Bermuda Admiral Sunil Rambha, the chief of the naval staff of the Indian Navy, Beijing has deployed six to eight warships in the Indian Ocean, and while in Pakistan, it has started to deploy ground forces. So, referring to China's operation of the Hanban to the port, some rights concern that if the Chinese Navy began to use civil purpose port as a naval supply base, China could overcome its weakness, its lack of the naval port in the region. Indeed, they have already opened a naval port in the Djibouti in Africa.

And in addition, China also exports submarines to countries around India. Bangladesh received two submarines in 2016, and Pakistan decided to import eight Chinese submarines for its navy, especially the Islamabad's willingness to possess nuclear submarine must not be overlooked because its lack of the technology, there's a reasonable possibility that China will support such indigenous nuclear submarine. And China's submarine has led to Japan's ceiling of communications in the Indian From the Japanese and the U.S. perspective, maintaining the military balance in the Indian Ocean region is important, given the rise of China's presence. However, both Japan and the United States need to maintain their forces on the Pacific side as well.

We look forward to India and Sri Lanka as a partner. That is why Japan is focusing on the Indian Ocean region to maintain the military balance. That's the reason, I think. Japan had traditionally spent a lot of its investment in the South China Sea, developing security relationships with the Philippines, with Vietnam, and some of the other island nations there. And now that it's transitioning to the Indian Ocean, how is the security cooperation dynamic in the Indian Ocean given India's relative strength? South Asia, India is a very important actor. I explained the new network-based security system.

The new network security system is closely linked with Japan's growing interest in India. Japan, like the United States and other countries, have started focusing on the Indo-Pacific. Its interest is primarily focusing on three linkages, which indicate the influence in India and the key to maintaining a military balance with China under the new secular system. There are the linkage between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, the linkage between India and China border area and the East China Sea, and the linkage between the Indian Ocean region and the South China Sea.

If India has the capability in the Indian Ocean, US, Japan, Australia will be free from the heavy burden of the safeguarding the ocean, Indian Ocean in this case. So this will allow us to maintain the military balance by deploying more military forces in the Pacific side. such as the East China Sea or South China Sea. That is the first one. The second is, at the same time, to maintain military balance with China,

Japan and the United States are focusing on how to cause China to spirit its defense budget and military forces. For example, if India cooperates with Japan and the United States, It will not need to face the Beijing fighter jet all alone at the same time. China is likely to keep some of the jets on the eastern side for the use against Japan and the United States and vice versa. So we can divide China's budgeted military force into two fronts or three fronts. To maintain military balance, that is useful.

And thirdly, I need to explain, the linkage between Indian Ocean region and South China Sea is also important. It could contribute to maintain the military balance. Since China would need to deal with both at the same time and divide its budget accordingly, Southeast Asian countries around South China Sea need to strengthen their military power. But they also need a trustworthy partner to provide them with military support. In this case, of course, Japan, with the U.S. and Australia, and India can also collaborate to support these countries. This is the third reason. So India is providing training to fighter jet pilot or ground crew, as well as maintenance and training of the submarine crew in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and these countries.

So this is because it knows how to make the Soviet developed arms work in the tropical countries at low cost. So Singapore is also using training ground in India. And so Japan, the United States, Australia and India should collaborate to support these Southeast Asian countries more effectively. About the latest news, Philippines also decided to import a new anti-ship missile. The name is Brahmos missile from India. Not only Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines also start to cooperate with India. So in this case, Japan focusing on India and the Quad system, so US, Japan, Australia, India, start to work. That is my opinion. And that is the answer to this question. Thank you.

We'll get to the final question you addressed, Nyarko. What's Sri Lanka's role in Japan's perception of the region? yeah japan's perception of the sri lanka's role in japan's maritime security is clear from the joint statement issued during the prime minister shinzo abe now the prime minister is prime minister is visit to sri lanka in 2040 according to the statement the two countries read a note the strategic geographical location of sri lanka in the indian ocean cdn struggling to edge it to Africa. That's for Japan. Sri Lanka's strategic location is very important.

For centuries, Sri Lanka's location has affected its history. For example, it was a part of the Chola Empire in the 11th century because of its strategic location. In the 15th century, the Zheng He came to Sri Lanka and fought with Sri Lankan Kota Kingdom because that time Tsungehei is Chinese,

China realized how important Sri Lanka's location was for the seed trade. Portuguese, Netherlands, or Britain occupied Sri Lanka during the 16th century, 16th to 20th century, as you say, and in 1942, Japan bombed the Turin-Kumari port of Sri Lanka because the strategically important British naval port was there. India sent a peacekeeping force from 1987 to the 1990s because it predicted that the U.S. would establish another base in Sri Lanka. Indeed.

So now China is investing heavily and building ports because of Sri Lanka's dependence on Chinese investment, because of Sri Lanka's dependence on the Chinese investment, Beijing request and received Sri Lanka's agreement to sign the 99 years lease of the Hambatota port. So these are the good examples how important Sri Lanka's location is. So therefore, Japan wants Sri Lanka to use this strategic location to strengthen Japan's strategy to counter China.

However, Japan is connected with China's growing influence in Sri Lanka's decision making. For example, in 2019, the investigation of the April 21st terrorist attack conducted by Sri Lankan authorities with the assistance of the U.S. specialists resulted coincidentally in the arrest of the retired Major General Kapila Henda Wissarana, a former director of the military intelligence of Sri Lanka, when it was found that he was the agent of China. So he was agent of China.

So when Sri Lankans realize the sheer size of China's investment, they remember their strategy and avoid dependence on Beijing. Simply said, Japan is worrying the Sri Lanka situation. But for Japan, Sri Lanka is very important because of the strategic location. and we want to improve the relations. Final question then, Doctor. What specifically is Japan doing in Sri Lanka to grow its influence?

When Sri Lanka decided to accept China's investment with a high interest rate, Sri Lanka had no other investment options. That is the key to understand why Sri Lanka chose China. So therefore, with U.S. and India, Japan suggests alternative infrastructure projects to the developing countries like Sri Lanka. For example, in the Colombo Candy Road project in Sri Lanka,

Sri Lanka borrowed money from China to the first stage of the construction. But the third stage will be financed with loan from Japan. Why? Japan believes the Indo-Pacific should not be China-dominated region. But Sri Lanka that have received or eager to receive the Belt and Road Initiative investment from China have waited in. So knowing that Sri Lanka have a strong desire to develop their economy with this sound infrastructure project. So Japan has taken their view into their account and cooperate with China as a case-by-case basis.

case-by-case basis in the picture of the project. However, as I mentioned above, recently this relation has faced with difficulty in September 2020. Sri Lanka president ordered the immediate termination of the Japan-funded light rail project. In February 2021,

Sri Lanka decided to scrap the 2019 agreement with Japan and India for operating the east coast terminal of the compound. That has really happened, unfortunately. But still, we believe it will improve relations in the future. Unfortunately, that's all the time that we have for today. I'd like to thank my guest, Dr. Satoru Nagao. Dr. Nagao, where can we find you online and what are you working on next? Recently, I'm focusing on many securities around China and I'm focusing of the U.S.-China competition, and I believe the U.S. will win in the competition, of course.

What should the Quad do in the U.S.-China competition is the main tema, especially that recently the China's attitude towards its neighbors has been escalating. No doubt, to counter China's escalating activities, the U.S. has stepped up its deterrence effort. in my analysis I need to emphasize America is allowed to win the competition with China

so therefore what should Kuwait do is the main theme of my research thank you well thank you again for joining us doctor to the listeners thanks for tuning in we'll see you next time © BF-WATCH TV 2021

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