Sea Control - Sea Control 537 - Europe's Role in Indo-Pacific Security with Dr. Joanna Siekiera

Episode Date: July 18, 2024

Links1. “Dragons in the West: Chinese Communist Party Threats in Europe and the Imperative of a Strategic Pivot,” by Joanna Siekiera, Irregular Warfare Initiative, February 27, 2024. 2. 21st Century as the Pacific Century: Culture and Security of Oceania States in Great Power Competition, edited by Joanna Siekiera, Wydawnictwa Uiwersytetu Warszawskiego, 2023.3. Sea Control 501: Multilateral Approaches to Maritime Security in Oceania with Zach Ota, CIMSEC, March 10, 2024. 4. Sea Control 255: Littoral Access Companies with Zach Ota, CIMSEC, June 3, 2021. 5. #Brutecast S7 E01: European Security and China with Dr. Joanna Siekiera, The Krulak Center, July 16, 2023.

Hey folks, it's Jared. Walker Mills returns as your host this week, and he has Dr. Joanna Shakira as guest today. They're going to be discussing her recent work on Indo-Pacific maritime security. This episode was edited and produced by Andrew Frayn. Here at SimSec, we aim to further international maritime security through an exchange of ideas and the rigor of critical thought and writing. If you haven't already, please check out SimSec.org for new articles on the most important maritime topics. If you'd like to contribute to the discussion, check out the Write for SimSec tab to learn how you can submit articles for publication. And now, Kimber's Men.

You're listening to Sea Control, hosted by the Center for International Maritime Security. Welcome aboard the Sea Control podcast from the Center for International Maritime Security. I'm Walker Mills, and my guest today is Dr. Joanna Shakira. Dr. Shakira is an international lawyer, legal advisor, and doctor of public policy from Poland. After her doctoral studies in New Zealand and a postdoc in Norway, she worked for the Polish Ministry of Justice and has published extensively on the legal aspects of armed conflict and Indo-Pacific issues. And now she works as a consultant for NATO, and she's also a non-resident fellow at the Prulak Center for Innovation and Future Warfare at Marine Corps University and a certified sailor. Today, we're going to discuss

some of her recent work on Indo-Pacific maritime security, and we're super excited to have her aboard. Joana, welcome aboard. Can you start by telling the listeners a bit more about yourself? Thank you very much, Sanford Fidelis Walker. I am very happy to be here. It's been my dream actually to appear on this podcast. I've been following you guys for so long. I admire all your work. And my PhD is in public policy because for me, it's very important not only to look at international law, but we must understand the politics behind that and any possibilities or obstacles in national administration. So I had always two biggest laws, so law of armed conflict and Indo-Pacific region. And now I am combining this in maritime security and Indo-Pacific

from legal dimension and as you mentioned i work for nato and i cooperate with various international and military academies and i always try to sensitize my students and course participants to think like a perpetrator because we constantly make this mistake that we hope that everyone will follow the law unfortunately this is not what is happening and we still naively hope that the enemy will obey the rules definitely no enemies are not stupid they use all the tactics available and we still come up with a big surprise for in ukraine and my neighboring country showed that but of course not only russia is a bad entity here and we will talk today about china as well we're super excited to have you on and you're such a prolific author that you know

this probably won't be the last time that we invite you onto the SimSec podcast. Before we start, I need to remind the listeners, all the opinions here are solely our own and they're not reflective of any of the institutions with which we might otherwise be associated. You specialize in legal warfare, lawfare, as it's often called, especially in regard to great power competition. You recently wrote a piece for the Irregular Warfare Initiative. I've got my Irregular Warfare Initiative mug right here that I'm seeking my coffee out of, about the Chinese Communist Party's threat and some of the things they're doing with regard to European security. Can you talk some about that? Yes, thank you very much. We start from this because

this is what is obvious for American audience, but not so much for Europeans. This is what I've been observing in my personal and professional life. Therefore, I wrote this blog post and I called it dragons in the west so uh how chinese communist party is very very easily almost with no obstacles or problems is entering european market and i mean economy i mean energy sector i mean basic critical infrastructure i mean high education via enormous scholarships and then of course if you pay professors will write everything what is good about China because they have holidays for their families to China paid by China they publish the books for free financed by the Chinese government so we tend not to think that way but when Chinese companies are everywhere

They are owners of the most states in harbors, in the ship halls, in airports all around Europe. Then we wake up in a reality which is totally governed by China. This is very dangerous. And I'm very grateful you mentioned Lofa because most of the security analysis is focused on hard weaponry armor. But Chinese are not stupid. it they will not start a conventional war because they've already started all the warfare and they've been preparing for so public opinion psychology warfare and legal warfare they muster that

russians are learning from chinese and what we see now in ukraine is russia is testing china is observing. And this is what I have this personal mission of mine that I want to say, guys, wake up because it will be too late. Here in Central Europe, we know what is communism. We don't want communism. We don't want anyone to wake up in a world where there is one party ruling, when one party is telling us what to do, what not to do, in what or whom to believe or not to believe. This is very dangerous because when we have conventional war, it's really easy to see those guys have breached the law. Those are protecting the law.

But in this unconventional, irregular, hybrid warfare, it's very hard. And Chinese, unfortunately, they have mastered that. How engaged is Europe in Indo-Pacific security? I mean, you know, every once in a while we see a couple of things. Maybe there's a British frigate. I know that, you know, the French are maybe a little more engaged than most in Oceania and in the Pacific. But what's kind of the status of engagement, both, I guess you could say, by individual countries and then the alliance as a whole? Very good remark, because Europe is not a federation.

I know that a lot of my American friends, they tend to think that Europe is just one entity. No, guys, we have different friends, alliances. Yes, we are in European Union. Most of us are in NATO. But interest assets and ambitions are different. When I look at Europe, I would divide it into two Western countries and Eastern or Central Eastern European countries. And here in Central Europe, we are totally against China because for us, it equals Russia. Unfortunately for our Western neighbors, they see China as a market partner, as an economic friend. They anyhow see it as a threat. only last sorry two years ago already 2022 in nato strategy concept china was mentioned for the first time because of whom because of you guys because of the us because normally european

members of nato would not agree on that they don't see china as a threat therefore they don't look and the indo-pacific and here at my back you walker can see the indo-pacific map and and by the way i've been sailing across that region two months open sea and i like to mention this anecdote that two months open sea from fijab to palau then guam honolulu i've seen only chinese vessels two months only chinese illegal fishing vessels and of course fishing that was anyhow fishing because uh right well we all know what they were doing there i think that's really interesting do Do you think that it's changing? I mean, you mentioned the new NATO strategic document that mentions China for the first

time. Obviously, the alliance is focused on European security. And I think I'm correct that Hawaii is explicitly excluded in the Article 5 portion. But do you see that it's European states are becoming more concerned about Indo-Pacific security? And kind of as a corollary of that, I'd wonder if you think the renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reinforced that, their concerns about Indo-Pacific security, or perhaps instead was the distractor and now their renewed focus on European security, if that makes sense. yes definitely and sorry to be well not optimistic but i will be as direct as i am usually first of all some countries in central europe like lithuania and czech republic just to mind

you guys this is landlocked countries they have their in the pacific policies poland the largest in central europe we don't have it we don't even want to have a debate about in the pacific because our interests are here in Euro-Atlantic zone. When it comes to bigger countries, of course, France and Germany, they know that Indo-Pacific matters because they also focus on the resources. That's another thing that not so many would like to touch because according to United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, where again, US, the largest navy, but also Turkey, a very important player in NATO, have not ratified UNCLOS.

But according to international law, whatever is at the sea bottom, it remains for the humankind. So this is this common heritage for mankind. But again, if China and other authoritarian regimes, they don't play fair, how can you imagine that once the technology is that applicable to dig in and use the resources would they split fairly of course not so therefore i say that the next war will be war for resources and that will be in in the pacific so countries especially more developed with higher income possibilities like uk france germany they want to be there because they want to cut this cake with the resources another thing is civilization threat and great power competition

again from my end as a international lawyer i would say it's not only about economy not only about military but also civilization that our values as the west western countries based on democracy protection of human rights transparency rule of law we versus them so china and its allies who don't care about our values and they will not be stopped by killing by breaching everything what matters to us and again where would that start to happen again in in the pacific when i talk about that in europe in european conferences academics military they they are not so much interested they don't see it maybe they think it's in another century whatever but no this is happening already now 21st century is the pacific century and just to finish this uh recently on one of the

nato conferences i i've been to uh my european colleagues from again the western europe they were saying that China is not our problem China is far Chinese our backyard and I couldn't believe that I couldn't understand why they remain so naive that this threat is here it's not only about Taiwan and the Philippines this is absolutely going everywhere so it's not in our background backyard, sorry, as they were saying, but literally in our houses with telecommunication system, with the supply chains, with navigation, and even airports all around Europe. I think that's really interesting to hear the kind of perspective when you go to these European or NATO alliance conferences and seminars, because I feel like here in the

united states there's at least in you know within uh security organizations and think tanks and whatnot there's almost you know a consensus that oh yeah i speak to the choir basically when i go to america yes right but obviously you know it seems like we we uh believe strongly in internationalism so we have listeners all over the world with different perspectives and i think what you said about uh you know the united states uh still not having ratified the fun clause and And then also, I think there's some kind of addendum documents that have to do with seabed mining and resources that the United States is still not a treaty to or party of. Definitely, we have some listeners with strong feelings about those. Do you see that there's a future where Central European countries, perhaps like Poland, as a good example, that's definitely stepping up a lot in terms of European defense architecture and land power become more interested in maritime power?

I mean, I know there's a lot of Polish seacoasts on the Baltic Sea, and I think they may have some ongoing acquisition initiatives in terms of modernizing some frigates and submarines of theirs. Do you see a future where there's more of a desire to take a larger role beyond just the Baltic and European waters or that there will remain much more of a focus on Russia and in close, closer threats, if that makes sense? Definitely it does. And again, me as a sailor, I always am with my heart to Navy and Marines, of course. But the thing is that every budgetary, every is focused on land forces. This is still unbelievable that naval forces are under budgeted and it will not change. It will not change because we have different focus, different interests. The lobby is not there.

we would i think require more american cooperation and here i say why because here in central europe we feel the closest allies with the u.s our western countries who by the way got marshall funds money after second world war we were never given that because moscow said no so those developed countries more developed countries in in western europe they have this unvalent feelings towards the US they're like no we're okay we are fine we're still living

in a Europa centric world we are not anyhow this is the 21st century pacific century so this is very important to get away from that old I would say colonial thinking but how about central Europe building some kind of

block of trimarium we say so three seas initiative as somehow to leverage Chinese influence and Chinese Belt and Road Initiative towards Western Europe. Because again, for many, many years, Germans and then French and again, Western Europe,

they were so happy with cheap natural resources from Russia. But here in Central Europe, we've been warning them that look guys, dependence on cheap Russian resources will affect politics. And guess what? Who is in Gazprom in the board of directors? All the former chancellors of Germany and politicians from Austria.

So those are basic facts and we must look at the broader picture because when we look only now we are losing. Chinese, they plan, they strategize for decades to come and unfortunately they are winning. I hope that the Western world, again, our allies, not only NATO, but we have Australia, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Japan, who will be able to stand together because this unity is very important. Yes, we have different resources, different allies, different history. We have some, I would say, disagreements among our neighbors, that is obvious.

but again we must stand united because the the game is not anymore the game this is about civilization our future generations will live in shifting a little bit you've done a lot of research on commonwealth states you did a lot of work in in new zealand uh in particular and and looking at their maritime security issues last year i think you published two books that you edited about Indo-Pacific security, and one of them with Colonel Zach Oda, the Marine Corps who we've had on the podcast. Can you talk some about those books and some about that work that you've done specifically with the Commonwealth and Oceania? Thank you very much. And yes, exactly. Zach was one of my brilliant authors in their latest book. And ladies and gentlemen, my books

are in open access. I always want to share my knowledge. I always want to promote my brilliant authors so um after this podcast we will link up the books where you can download your free ebooks share it perhaps use it even in your work or to understand the multi-dimensional international approach because again i work with american institutions i value your work ethics, but I think it's always good to have the broadest possible perspective. So I have my European colleagues,

my Indian colleagues. This is very important for me to have civilians, but also military personnel because everyone is very authentic. Me, as an academic, I cannot stand those typical people scholar books with a lot of footnotes and references that i always keep because i want

to get to the core of the dilemma so my books i hope they are like this they are of course scientific books but my mission is to popularize this region in the pacific why does it matter why we should all be aware of that because again whatever absolutely whatever is happening in that region, it will affect us directly, not even indirectly, but at every possible level, economic, social, cultural, security, human security, and national security. So those two books you were referring to, the one is 21st Century as the Pacific Century, Culture and Security of Oceania States in Great Power Competition. And another one is Security in the Pacific and Development of Oceania,

Commonwealth's Presence in the Region. So, ladies and gentlemen, there are like 15, 18 chapters written by various authors from various cultures. Also, for me as a woman, it's important to invite also ladies because there are a lot of excellent female professionals who unfortunately struggle to shine in the defense world. So here is also my personal mission to help them, to empower them. And we'll definitely make sure that we have the links to those, like you said, beneath the podcast so the readers can go ahead and check those out. And I'm curious if there are things that you think the listeners would find surprising about maritime security in Oceania, because I think we talk a lot about, I guess, what you might call the Western Pacific or East Asia or the first island chain. But sometimes we don't talk about as much about Oceania. What would you tell someone that was kind of uninformed about maritime security in that region? Very good question. First of all, Oceania is not a monolith. Three subregions, Polynesia, Micronesia and Melanesia. They are different, not only culturally, but also politically. When we look at the map, those countries, they also struggle about leadership. Here I mean Fiji versus Papua New Guinea. uh so who is the big boss in Oceania about the funds because again Australia as a big brother and New Zealand a smaller brother but still bigger than little islands they still have their

interest they they still train for example uh jurists and judges and lawyers again according to their perspective their understanding and when I was doing my PhD in New Zealand my supervisor he was the one who used to write constitutions for some of those islands so again like there is no vacuum in nature or international law there is always a benefit i am very pragmatic here so i will not say this is help to help but this is also help to keep the sphere of interest also have their markets open and again allowing quota of migrants only as much as the country deemed necessary so there are also very interesting points sometimes I would say politically incorrect but again I want to be clear and always touch the bottom of the

And the research question and my research question, beloved, is why? Why do states act like this? Who is getting benefits? What kind of benefits are? Why some states are omitting some actions? Because again, everything is this, I wouldn't say also, yeah, market-driven, but at the end of the day, states, they fight, they compete for their spheres of influence. And again, Oceania, with their sea bottom resources, with fishing quotas, with votes at United Nations, just look at the Security Council. Each country, including Poland, they suddenly established so many diplomatic relations with Oceania countries just so to get their votes to become a non-permanent resident Security Council. So pure politics. We must be aware of that.

Yeah, I think that's really important to remember. And like you were saying, when we started out talking about European countries, right, that obviously Europe is not a monolith. And I think you said, you know, every country has their own interests, assets, and ambitions. And I think that's a valuable way to kind of break down and complicate the picture of regions that are sometimes viewed as, unfortunately, as monolithic. This is kind of an ending question. Why should Indo-Pacific security matter to Europe and Europeans and NATO and the European Union? And those are obviously separate categories that have separate interest assets and ambitions. but so what's the overall pitch like why is this important and then a thought kind of falling on that what can those different actors do to contribute more or participate more be more involved whatever again whatever is happening in in the pacific it is affecting us if not today definitely tomorrow we live in a global village so much correlated world that regional relations are automatically global relations and also from the pure pragmatic point of view we need to be in the indo-pacific our interest our western civilization is there the destiny the future

of everything what we stand for all the principles our great-grandparents were fighting in the second world war before it will be repeated because this is the the history of humankind we we fight we argue so so sooner or later there will be the war what kind of war conventional irregular We will see, but we must get prepared because the enemies, China, North Korea, Russia, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, terrorist groups, lone wolves, they are all preparing. They move with this technological pace so fast that we simply cannot be ignorant and say that Indo-Pacific is simply too far. I'm sorry. I think that's about all the time we have for today. I'd like to thank my guest, Dr. Joanna Shakira, for discussing her recent work on the Indo-Pacific security with us and why it matters to Europe. Joanna, can you tell the listeners where they can find you online if they want to seek you out? Obviously, we'll put the links to some of your recent work beneath the show. And what are you working on next?

yes please find me on twitter x and linked it joanna shakira also reach me out in dms emails i'm more than happy to share my work and there are many interviews or podcasts on youtube as well for the u.s marine corps u.s army and also televisions so i'm sure that you will find some something interesting where i am again as direct as as usual thank you again for joining us and to the listeners thanks for tuning in we'll see you next time Help me, Bob-I, Pull in the alley, Pull it out the shimbo now! A porter robe and a porter gin-o, Way-hey! Pull in the alley! A porter wine, both white and red-o, Pull it out the shimbo now!

So help me, Bob-I, Pull in the alley, Way-hey! Pull in the alley! Help me, mama, put it in the alley, put it out in Shemora.