Sharp Tech with Ben Thompson - Mailbag: Chip Ban Follow Up, What About Tik Tok?, Validating AI Work Product, Coaches and GMs as CEOs

Episode Date: October 20, 2022

Taiwan's military readiness and the modal outcome for Tik Tok in the U.S., a question about immersive audio spawns Clubhouse lament, two questions about the future of AI in the knowledge economy, choosing the NBA coaches and GMs who will lead the next era in tech.

Hello and welcome to Sharp Tech. I'm Andrew Sharp, and this is a free preview of today's episode. People in the U.S. have gone from zero to 100, but where do the Taiwanese sit? Are they closer to 20 or 30 when they should be 50 or 60? Yeah, I'm, no, I don't think it's that high. I mean, and I'm super biased in this regard because I live here and, you know, I, there are actions I've taken. Like, I have a place in the U.S. part of the motivation is to make sure that I have somewhere to go if need be.

But there certainly is, you could argue, a motivated reasoning from my perspective to assume that it's not going to happen. But I would say, honestly, my expectations are lower than Andes and mine are still probably higher than most Taiwanese. I think there is a reason for concern that Taiwan's been living with this threat for so long that to go back to the frog in the water, like the water is getting a little bit warm and and it feels totally normal. But I think a lot of the motivation for thinking that is this economic tie-up. It's like this would be so destructive. And on a just completely different

planet than whatever destruction, zero COVID is inflicting on China. I mean, like, I just don't think it's really comparable. And we can get into like zero COVID. Like China does have reasons for this policy as insane as it seems. Like they're, you know, the, Their vaccine is of questionable efficacy. Their medical system is woefully unprepared for any sort of mass sickness. It's much smaller. It's not, not like it's people are underappreciate the extent to which the U.S. medical system, despite its costs, or perhaps, you know, in some respects because of its

cost, is very large and very well. And that is a big fact. Like the U.S. was maybe overwhelmed in New York at the very beginning, but by and large was not overwhelmed in any other point sort of in the crisis. whereas China was utterly and completely overwhelmed in Wuhan and I think is terrified of that happening again and you could frankly spin the COVID thing in another direction

which is, you know, at the risk of tiptoeing into sort of cultural sensibilities there is a real, in my, as an American living in a Chinese society, a real stark fear of dying in a way that Americans just tend to not have. I mean, honestly, if anything, that's an indicator where China would be wise to not go to war with the U.S. No, but as far as the logic, that's actually news to me. I hadn't realized that there was like a rational basis for adopting the COVID zero policy.

And that basis being that basically China has far more people than we do and their hospital systems are far less equipped to absorb an actual outbreak than. than America's work. Their medical system is smaller than the U.S. medical system for a population that's four times a size. Exactly. And so there is like real concerns. I think there's obviously criticism for not accepting Western vaccines, for example. And that is definitely a she sort of thing. There's definitely a bit where, look, we suppress COVID.

The outside didn't. That's been a real sort of talking point, propaganda point. And it's hard to sort of go back on that. But Andy's point is fair. They are sacrificing their economy for this. That gets into the broader concerns about Xi, who does seem to be much more ideologically motivated than sort of pragmatic, economically motivated, like most previous Chinese leaders. And that is the reason why there is more concern here. Like if Hu Jintao or Zhang Tameen or even, you know, Deng Xiaoping were in charge of China, I don't think this would even be an issue.

This is a Xi Jinping issue sort of at the. the at the end of the day. And no one really knows what he's going to do. He's like he's done a lot of dumb stuff. And I think it made any time I want to be dumb. But at this point, that is the core concern. Yeah. And I don't think that the COVID zero policy is a good policy. And certainly the way it's been implemented has been pretty inhumane and frankly kind of unbelievable. But at the same time. But again, that's also a Western perspective. Well, and it's edifying. to realize that it's not quite as crazy as it looks as a westerner. Yeah, and it's almost impossible to know what approval it really has in China.

The other thing is the Chinese that we do hear from are people who are sort of intrinsically against the government, right? Like, they're the ones who go to the trouble to figure out how to get online in the West. They're the ones, you know, who are going to be more sort of cosmopolitan are going to be in cities like Shanghai, which has always been a much more, the most Western. oriented city in China, sort of unique within China. Like, even in China, everyone knows Shanghai is like kind of like its own thing. Yeah.

And obviously that was where the biggest most visible lockdown was. But it's fair to note, those lockdowns have been happening in other cities. Like, that kind of makes the point. The reason why Shanghai was such a big deal is because it was Shanghai. Like, that was mind-blowing to people it would happen there. But the flip side of that is this may, this policy may very well still be broadly. popular. And it's very, in all these things with China, I'm not saying I'm a China expert at all. My only expertise in China is knowing to be careful to apply my Western framework and point of

view to the country. And I think that's where a lot of Americans struggle to get out of their cultural viewpoint and mindset and just sort of project the way they view the world. And this is just something, I mean, when you live abroad, particularly when you live in a, there's so much about the society from day-to-day interactions, from family to relationships, to work, that's just so utterly different. And even to the extent, I've been here for 20 years, the biggest thing I know is how much I don't know. And so it makes it hard to answer these questions in a way, because a lot of it's just, I don't know, I don't know, I don't know. On the American side of our Zoom call here, sitting in Washington, D.C. at the seat of power.

Yes, the core of the problem. A stone's throw from the Department of Commerce. I mean, it's what makes me worried. I feel like China does not really understand the U.S. And the U.S. does not really understand China. And you have this constant talking past each other. Like, Americans are very direct, very forward, a little naive in many respects. And the Chinese are, you know, sort of like saying things sideways, under the surface,

like sort of communicating. Like so the U.S. says, oh, we care about human rights. And China's like, okay, what's your angle? And the U.S. like, no, we really do. And it's like, China's like, well, look at X, Y, Z, do you really care? And I think the U.S., like, they do care. Do they always abide by that? No, not at all.

But there actually are sometimes actions that are driven by some sort of principle. And China doesn't believe that in a million years. Like, no, there's principle. That's propaganda. That's talking point. And again, sometimes it is. But what's your real angle? Where are you actually driving at?

And then China, like, oh, you know, sort of saying under the surface with their signaling, this is what we really mean, even though our words say one thing. Like, what am I, have I told the Chungi story on this podcast? No, not yet. One of my favorite insults in Chinese is there's all these four letter phrases called Chungies. One of the best ways to insult someone is you say a Chungi, which is four characters, but you drop one of the characters.

And by dropping that character, so someone is like, someone, maybe there's a Chungie and says someone is beautiful, kind, honest. and, you know, hardworking. Okay. You drop the honest one. Say, this person is beautiful, kind, and hardworking. You just basically insulted the hell out of this person by saying they're dishonest and, you know, you can't trust this person. That's a Chinese insult.

It's like it's what's not said. And that's emblematic of this communication in general. There's this total mismatch. And the big worry is that folks just speak past each other and there's. Yeah, it sounds like the worry. It sounds like the worry. would be that the Americans take the Chinese at their word. And no matter what the Americans say, the Chinese don't believe the Americans and think that there's ulterior motives and grand ambitions.

Yes. I can see how that would devolve if that's the dynamic on both sides. Yeah, well, I was thinking about the chip ban over the last couple of days. And I arrived at two competing thoughts. Number one, I understand why they would do this now. If you don't trust China and you're confident that the relationship is going to get even worse and more dangerous over the next five to ten years, it's better to implement these export controls now rather than allow them to advance in the interim as things continue to devolve. So that makes sense to me. to the extent I was uneasy on the last podcast and unsure about whether it makes sense to do this now, I think that's less about the decision with these export controls in a vacuum than it is about the combination of this situation escalating with China alongside everything else that's happening all over the world right now. I mean, there's a non-zero chance of nuclear war in UK.

Ukraine, our relationship with the Saudis is devolving, Iran is increasingly looking threatening, and now we're, you know, engaging in a pretty open Cold War with China. Like a year ago, I was not prepared for any of this stuff, and it still feels like there hasn't really been a national conversation about potential downsides and long-term implications of committing to some of these fights. And so, yeah, no, it's like the systematic view of like, are we actually willing to back this up, number one, number two, are we actually capable of backing this up, right? Like, there is a concern about writing checks that we can't cash. And, you know, there's, it's one thing to have a narrative around the way you think the world should be.

Narratives don't make reality. And I think that's something that we're reminded of sort of again and again in all aspects of life. Yeah, and I don't know what the right answer is, but you talk about the frog in boiling water. I feel like nobody's really talking about it, and I'm looking up now and thinking, like, wait a second, like, we are engaged in more conflict around the world now than we have been at any point in my lifetime. And I'm not sure any of us were really ready to be jumping in with both feet all over the world in that respect. But in any event, we will see what happens. And there is another question related to the China chip ban. And Jonathan says this.

He says, what is the modal endgame for TikTok in the U.S.? Will the U.S. government force a sale to a U.S. owned entity? Will it be banned? Will the Chinese government use it to cede pro-China propaganda? TikTok has always struck me as an engineering marvel and a serious threat to America's interests. I'm not sure there is another foreign-owned asset commanding this much American mindshare.

I'm also not sure the average person realizes it is effectively owned by an unfriendly foreign government. All right, and that's the end of the free preview. If you'd like to subscribe and receive every episode of this show, you can do so by subscribing to Stratectary Plus. That'll give you access to every Sharp Tech episode, all of our Sharp China episodes, the Dithering podcast with Ben and John Gruber,

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