Shaun Newman Podcast - #1144 - Vince Lanci

Episode Date: October 13, 2026

Vince Lanci is a veteran commodities and derivatives trader with more than three decades of experience, beginning as a market maker on the floors of the NYMEX, COMEX, and NYBOT. He previously ran Berard Capital and served as co-head of metals and energy trading at CiS Options before founding Echobay Partners LLC, where he remains Managing Partner. Lanci is also an adjunct professor of MBA-level finance at the University of Connecticut and the publisher of the GoldFix Substack, where he provides analysis on precious metals, market structure, and macro trends. He is the author of As Good As Gold: The Return of Real Money, which examines the shift from Treasuries to gold as the world’s preferred form of collateral.Silver Gold Bull Links:Website: https://silvergoldbull.ca/Email: [e-mail] Grahame: [phone]Bow Valley Credit UnionBitcoin: www.bowvalleycu.com/en/personal/investing-wealth/bitcoin-gatewayEmail: [e-mail] Nor’East Apothecary - USE promo code SNP for 15% off your orderhttps://thepowerofplants.ca/Get your voice heard: Text Shaun 587-217-8500

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This is James Lindsay. This is Vance Crow and you're listening to the Sean Newman podcast. Welcome to the podcast, folks. How's everybody doing today? Happy Tuesday. Yeah, we're in, well, we should be on our way to Philadelphia at the time of this. After we got absolutely downpored on. It is a glorious day right now.

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the podcast because they're setting up for a dinner rush and then we we record part of it while we're walking back to the family at the park and then we've recorded the end of it uh i think the substack portion of memory serves me correct while at the park regardless this is a new one normally i've had one in a in a in a restaurant or that type of setting i've had a walking interview this is one that starts off in video then it goes to audio only and it bridges about three different spots so buckle up for this one folks all right let's get out of that tail of the tape Today's guest is the publisher of the Gold Fix Substack. He's also a veteran commodities and derivatives trader with more than three decades of experience.

I'm talking about Vince Lanchie. So buckle up. Here we go. Welcome to the Sean Newman podcast. I could sit here and mess with cameras and everything else. Vince Lanchie. Oh, thanks for having you, Sean. Good to see you.

Thanks for making the trip. Yeah. Well, I tell you what, I want to make sure that we give the spot. It's due for giving us a space. Right. You've got to tell me the back story of this. We're sitting at the Colony Grill patio. They've been kind enough to give us the area, but we just had a meal here, and Colony Grill is famous for its small bar personal pizzas, and they're very well known for their hot oil treatment.

Well, the kids ate them up quick. The kids ate them up quick, yes, exactly. We had dinner for six, and they ate them. But I'm sure they're happy with any civilization with all the hiking that you've making them do. Yeah, I'm making it. I don't know. They've been enjoying it. I mean, you're asking like some of the stories from the trip. It's like, at times you forget what day of the week is because you've been on the road so long. Right. And, yeah, it's just cool. You know, when I started the trip, one of the names I'd marked on it was Vince. I was like, okay, I can't. I'm going to get down here. I'm going to have a Vince. I'm going to make sure I get to Vince. And so it's just another like marker on the trail. That's what you've become. We're in Stamper, Connecticut. Yeah. Yeah. You know, and at some point we get to New York later today. And when my wife said that earlier today, Vince, I was like, what? What?

We're where? And I didn't fully comprehend where we were at almost, you know? Right, right, right, right. Like, it came up so quick on me. I was surprised, to be honest. Yeah, yeah. Well, it's like basically Stanford is like a second city suburb of New York City. So you're on your way to New York or Long Island.

and you're on the way there. And that's very good. But yeah, I'm really happy to be a part of this. And I think this is actually very ambitious and very excellent thing that you're doing going across the country, across the continent, actually, I should say. Yes. Well, I tell you what, I don't get to give out a whole lot of these. I'm in a very short supply of them.

But being a cornerstone guest, I thought it was only fitting. And a precious metals man. Thank you. I mean, you've got to meet Nick and the team at Silver Gold Bowl. That's a one ounce from Silver Gold Bowl. This is my first one with King Charles. I know. Is that a good thing?

I don't know. But it's a good thing that I'm getting this, and I appreciate that. I appreciate it. So I have nothing but Queen Elizabeth. This is very nice. Thank you very much. Can I hold that up to the camera? Everyone would see that.

Yeah, you bet. That's Charles, and there's the Maple Leaf. By the way, I own exclusively Maple Leafs. I don't own any Silver Eagle. Really? Why? Too much premium. I see the premium between silver eagles and maple leaves as too wide. And the premium for me is justified for liquidity on selling.

If I ever had to sell, Maple Leafs are 99% as liquid as Eagles. They're not worth 20% cheaper. The premium on eagles is ridiculous. And so, yeah, I own almost entirely. I own almost entirely eagles. I mean, Maple Leafs. People are going to laugh at me, but I'm like, I can see this is going to bug me the entire time.

It's just rubbing up underneath your jacket, and I'm like, I don't know. Well, I don't know. I'm like, I definitely do not want you muffled while we chat. So there's a bigger premium on an eagle than the Maple Leaf. So you look at that. Break this down for me. Yeah, it's, it's.

I mean, it's probably standard to anyone dealing with precious metals. When I started in the industry, when I started in this, as a trader, when I started as a trader in the industry, and I wasn't very physically oriented. I was financially oriented, being a New Yorker. I ran into a hedge fund manager, and I said, what are you doing? He goes, I'm buying gold. And I said to him, I said, what are you buying?

Futures, are you buying ETFs? And he said to me, he said, no, I'm buying physical. And I said, oh, what are you buying? He goes, I'm buying Maple Leafs. Now, as a person who did not understand the difference in premium at the time, I said, why are you buying Maple Leafs? That's Canadian. Why should you not buy American Eagles? He said, because this is 15 years ago. He said, American Eagles have a premium of $6 and Maple Leafs have a premium of $0 at the time.

This is gold. And I said, I said, you know, what's the point? I go, isn't the premium justified by the liquidity? He said, no. He goes, all I have to do is take my maple leaves, my gold maple leaves, and store them in Canada, which is a hop, skip and a jump from where he was, upstate New York. He goes, and I have all the liquidity that I need. I don't need to own American Eagles.

The $6 spread for him between American Eagles and Canadian maple leaves wasn't worth it. And so I took that lesson away from me, And I looked at the difference between maple leaves on the silver side and Maple Leafs and Eagles on the silver side. And Eagle Silver is just way overpriced compared to Maple Leafs. So the trade is you buy Maple Leafs, not Eagles if you want to buy. And that's what I have many more yellow boxes than I have green boxes. In fact, I have only one green box.

I have mostly yellow boxes. That's funny because like there's something powerful. about the silver eagle, the gold eagle. Like it's, but when you get it in a dollars and cents, it makes complete sense. It has to be. I mean, there's, there's, it's, it's freaking silver. You know, then you'll have some people that'll push back and say, well, the milk spots on the maple leaves. Who cares? I, I, the premium is only justifiable. The premium on a coin versus another coin is only there because of demand. And the demand is there because of exit liquidity. So if you can, if you were to say I'm going to sell,

look, let's start with Silver Eagles, right? I need to sell Silver Eagles in a heartbeat. If you need to sell them in a heartbeat, you need to have the guy pick up the phone, right? And usually when you want to sell them, they don't pick up the phone. But when they pick up the phone, they're going to say, I'll buy it from you at spot as opposed to you've already bought it at six dollars overspot. So you'll get to sell it at spot. The thing is, if you're talking to a Canadian dealer and you're working with maple leaves, well, you bought it at $2 over and you're going to sell it at spot. So it's not worth the $6 difference.

And so I buy almost exclusively Canadian maple leaves. Absolutely. Well, then that is a gift just for you, Vince. This is perfect. Like that hits. It's a great, it's a nice clean coin, too. Very nice. It reflects very nicely over here.

I guess these lights above us help out. But it looks very nice. Now, with gold eagles, it doesn't matter as much because a gold eagle's premium and a maple leafs premium are very comparable. But silver, you just get ripped off on silver. Canadian, I mean, this is me speaking from my personal experience. American Eagles are not worth the premium. Canadian maple leaves are worth the premium because you get the same liquidity as you get 99% of liquidity that you get with an American eagle that you get with a Canadian maple leafs. belief and you just you know you have to find the right place to sell it it's all about exit

liquidity that's basically it so yeah this is this is a perfect gift for me very symbolic of my bias yeah well and symbolic of how we run into each other you know when I think about it yeah it's very nice I appreciate it you know it wasn't what maybe two years ago now when you first hopped on the screen and I remember you're kind of analyzing me going who heck this guy is and you asked me a bunch of questions right right I got in put in touch with you I think through Tom, if memory serves me. Tom Bodrovics. Was it Bodroviks or was it Luongo?

It was one of the two, it was one of the Tom's. Well, we were, we, Tom, the Tom, Tom, twins, I hoped up with them simultaneously. So it could have been both of them. Yeah. Could have been both of them. Well, it's, uh, I'd heard stories of Vince Landry. I'm like, oh, I'll just have them on.

That's easy. And then it's funny because I have certain guests who sit across and they're analyzing me trying to figure out who I, am you know it was uh Dave Collin once upon a time on I think it was Luongo's gold goats and guns and he joked he's like is that the the CIA guy and I was like whoa wow and then I was like no I don't think he's CIA and I'm like I'm certainly not CIA right but it's funny I in this space of podcasting it's normally most the guests as you know I virtually interviewed very few of them get to stand on the

cornerstone stage which you got to do earlier this year I was I was I was honor to do that. I really appreciate it. Well, I think you set the, the, you know, all the speakers this year were fantastic. We had a sold out room in 700 people. And, you know, like silver, gold bull alongside Bow Valley Credit Union, the two companies that help bring it back. That's right. You know, it was just, it's been a really cool friendship, you know, like, obviously we don't talk every day, but having somebody, I could pick up the phone, be like, I have no idea what's going on.

Right. In the precious metals, now I know I have a lot of different. Yeah, you know everything that's going on. But if a new development comes along, you know you can pick me up and say, what the hell it's going on? So when you look at precious metals markets right now, I remember the run, right? In the middle, silver, Canadian dollars, and forgive me, I'm talking to American. Probably got Americans watching.

They're like, and I'm going to use Canadian totals. Right. And I'll try to do both. Right. And it got up to like $150 for an ounce of silver. Right. And I remember people tell me it's never going to stop. And then the people who've been a part of this is like, it's going to stop.

It's going to stop. And it's going to go back down. Where do you think we sit today? Well, the phenomena, this is in hindsight, but when it was at 120, I did like a 30-minute podcast with my own subscribers. And I said, please take profits. Please. it could go up another 50%, but I don't care. If you don't take profits now, you're a moron if it goes back down.

I didn't say it in those words, but a lot of them took profits, and I got some phone calls for people saying thank you. But the question is, after the profits were taken, after the market came off, why did it come off? And once you understood why it came off, you understand why that sort of spike is not going to happen again. It'll happen again, but why it won't happen again. under these circumstances and the circumstances were as such three things were

happening at the same time kind of like a perfect storm one is China had a fund a Chinese fund run by UBS which was completely mismanaged and encouraged people to buy more than they needed to buy so it wasn't weighted on silver so you could buy it it would go up even though it was going up more than silver should go up. So that was the first thing. So that encouraged, that basically encouraged blatant naked speculation.

That was the first thing. The second thing is China, and this, again, this is in hindsight. We didn't see it when it was happening, you know? The second thing is China changed their regulations, and they told all their solar panel companies, you need to have, they were doing, they were, they're very heavy-handed, you know, they're a centralized government.

They were saying, we want you to put in so many solar panels. Well, then they changed their rules to say, we want you to be able to generate so much electricity. And so at that point, all the solar panel manufacturers in China went out and said, we need to buy silver. At the same time, the U.S. was working with Latin America to minimize the United States. the uh uh to to i'm sorry no no this is you don't have to worry about it this is the podcast audience if you're just tuning in you've been missing the last three months of the podcast because i've been doing podcasts all over the place we have people walk through we're doing restaurants this is standard operating we're lucky to have the space right and the thing is is this is what

happens when we're not in studio right like i look forward to the day i'm back in the studio and get to have all the... Control your environment. Oh, man, it's so nice. But there's something so real about just sitting in the back of a bar, and there's going to be people who walk through, and there's going to be some noises, and there's going to be some street noise,

and that's just life. That's good. You know? Sorry, a whole bunch of things going on with China. Yeah, so the second thing with China was, as I was alluding to, they were mandating their people to go out and buy silver because they needed to have more electrical connectivity. And then at the same time, the U.S.,

was going into Latin America, Venezuela, to be specific, and we threw Maduro out. And that was a symptom of us throwing out China in other areas. So what we did was we pushed China out and their influence. It wasn't a black and white statement, but we started to push China out. And the Chinese started to come into Latin America and say, we'll pay $80 for silver an ounce. And silver was trading 70. And that leaked out. And J.P. Morgan was short.

J.P. Morgan got caught short. The market started to run. China got caught short. J.P. Morgan got caught short. Latin America. Silver wasn't available for a time frame. And plus, you had that ridiculous UBS fund that was operating out of there. And you had a perfect storm, and the whole thing took off.

And we went to 120. Now, the funny thing is, you know, to pat myself on the back, The funny thing is, about four months before then, we had, Goldfix had said, we've done an analysis, and the analysis was, what would happen to silver if it became a critical mineral? Now, silver is a critical mineral now. It's just not, it's not being hoarded the way that, say, a cobalt or a lithium is. But what happened was I did the math and the parallel was silver now is like uranium and copper when they both became critical minerals. They became critical minerals around four years ago.

And when they became critical minerals, they increased an average of 200%. And silver was trading $60 at the time. So at that moment, I put a ridiculous. I don't do predictions too much, but I said, silver should trade $147 over the next five years. Five years. Five years, you know, and then, of course, six months later, it was trading 120. So the point is, silver is a critical. I'm not trying to tell you how to mortgage your house and buy silver right now.

But silver is a critical mineral right now, and it's going to have fits and starts and problems. And we just saw one of them, and there'll be another one. It won't be the UBS fund. It won't be China. It'll be some other country with some other problem, but it will manifest itself in higher silver prices. So I think the China effect on silver is real and it has spilled over globally. Well, speaking to China and gold, though, you know, you probably know how many months in a row they've been stockpiling gold and you probably have all the stats of that. You know, like, I look at that and I'm like, well, I come from a country that we have no gold.

I mean, they'll say we have gold in the ground. Right. But all of our stockpile, our reserves of gold is gone. Right, right. I see another country for years now just grabbing gold and stockpiling it. The last time me and you chatted, you were saying, well, the U.S. is meeting with China. Right. If they work out a deal, the silver price ain't going up.

If they go to war, silver price is going up. And I'm probably oversimplifying what you exactly said. People should go back and listen to it. But where we sit is, I mean, Xi was just in the United States. Right. You've got a new deal with the Russians. And you're looking at it. And I go, okay, so, you know, but all the while China's stockpiling gold,

along with a bunch of other countries I'm going at. Right. Yeah, you know, with silver, starting with silver, the more we get along with China on silver, the less chance we have on a silver spike. Now, I'm not pouring water on silver, but I am saying that, you know, the tariffs are backing off. Here's an angle for China that you might not hear, but I'm going to give it to you because it's true. about about four months ago I started to notice and anticipate sure sure I just get a lot of people coming in for work yeah yeah all good

you're okay with them walking through walk on through this is life Vince all good no worries just having trouble of a pizza yeah just give us a pizza give us a pizza Give us a pizza box. We'll show the box. Okay. So this is something you're not going to hear anywhere else. Maybe one other place will say it, but it comes from me, and I get it from Chinese nationals.

China is becoming disenambered with bricks. China has been bending over. This is like cutting edge type of stuff. China has been bending over backwards. trying to get the bricks to come along with the M-Bridge, the unit, things like that. These are all terms of art. But basically the idea is we want to get the bricks all in line to use a Chinese-backed currency that everyone will use. The problem is they've been slacking off, and the BRICS countries are acting like global South countries.

Whereas China wants to move forward. now. It's also come to my attention that China is, exactly, it's live. It's also come to my attention that China is increasingly frustrated with Iran and increasingly frustrated with Russia. So what does that mean with the U.S.? What it means is that if China recognizes that the bricks are a weak sister, They can't get stuff done on their schedule. And they're frustrated with Russia and they're frustrated with Iran. Then China is going to be more amenable to having a conversation with the U.S. And we're seeing that now.

So four months ago, I was given the insight that China is getting frustrated with the bricks, frustrated with Russia, frustrated with Iran, not cutting them off, but frustrated. So they're going to hedge their bets and have their conversations. with the U.S. And that's what we're seeing now. So what that means is the price of silver, for example, won't spike higher. But does that mean that gold won't go higher? No.

It means that China's big negotiating tool with the U.S. Whether they're being friendly or not, whether they're saying, okay, we'll reduce our lithium tariffs, if you reduce your oil tariffs, what have you. Whatever the reasons, China is using gold to free itself from the Western economies. And so they're not going to stop buying gold. They're not going to say, okay, we're friends now. Let's stop buying gold. They're not buying treasuries anymore.

They're just not buying treasuries anymore. And the West has to come to terms with that. And so while we may be negotiating with them, you're lithium for our cobalt, our natural gas, for your nickel, whatever, your magnets, whatever those magnets are. Whatever those magnets are, whatever the situation is, gold is the thing that keeps pressing the U.S. to negotiate. So they're not going to stop putting pressure on gold, and they're buying it. Now, to go back to what you said about Chinese buying gold, to the point,

even though, assuming that I'm right, even though China may be having maybe a little disillusioned with its partners in the East, they're buying more gold than ever. They've had 23 months of increasing purchases in gold, and they bought 23 tons on the 23rd month. I feel like they're trolling us. The interesting thing is, China's economy is not doing well,

but their purchases and cult are going up. So if you and I, you and I, right, we have families, and you make $1,000 a month, let's say, right? You make $1,000 a month, and you have a budget to buy $100 in toys for your kids. Well, when you make $800 a month, you buy $80 in toys. You don't buy more. China is making less money economically and buying more gold. So it has nothing to do with their economy.

They're buying gold because they need something to get off of the U.S. dollar. And so there's nothing negative about China's behavior with gold, and it's going to continue higher. I mean, you know, the more colloquial or parochial statement is China's been buying between 400, 4,000 and 4,200, and they've been buying there for the last three months, and everybody keeps selling to them, and now the market's probably going to go higher again as we headed into. I would not be surprised. You can quote me on this. I've been wrong before, but I rarely make market statements.

But right now, the gold market is in what I call sell season. Between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, you have an increase in selling. And that selling comes from hedge funds liquidating, CTA is getting bearish. and then around Thanksgiving it turns around. And if you look at every year for the last five years, the lull and buying comes between, say, October 1st and November 15th. And we're in that frame right now. So if by November 15th, if gold is above $4,000,

it's probably going to skyrocket. I mean, I'm not predicting that, but that's how I feel, and that's how my portfolio will reflect that. So, yeah, I think the Chinese factor in gold is alive, and well and trumping everything else that's out there. And a big signal to just the everyday man when a superpower is doing that. Yeah. Right?

Yeah. And, you know, and it's not just China anymore. You know, China bought 23 tons this month, but Poland bought more. Poland's not a bigger country. You know, Poland's a smaller economy, but they're buying more. So Eastern European countries are buying. Asian countries are buying they're all setting up

for a new gold hub in Hong Kong which we've written about and you've heard about I'm sure the new Hong Kong gold hub is going to have Chinese gold in it it's going to have European gold in it it's going to have Saudi Arabian gold in it

and that gold is going to be used to finance their buildout you know like look if you're an African country this is this is they're not just buying gold because they're gold bugs. They're not just hoarding gold. They're buying it to use it to grow their economy. So here's what I mean. You're an African country and you want to build a highway. You want to build your economy out, right? Your economy's hopefully third world and you're trying to bring it

into an emerging market situation. So what do you do? You go to the IMF, you go to whoever's going to lend you money, which is the U.S. and you say, I want to borrow money and they say, well, you can use treasuries as collateral. Can you use gold? No, you can't use gold. No, you can't use as collateral. We don't take gold as collateral. We only take treasuries. So you put your treasuries up, your treasuries is a silver coin, and you say, okay, I'm going to lend you the full value of this treasury, and then you take the money and you build your highways. China has inverted the process. China has said, if you have gold, and all these African countries have gold, you can commit your goal to us as collateral. We'll lend you you want against it. You can build

your highways with Yuan. What are you going to build highways with Yuan with with Chinese manufacturing? So Africa is being built up by Chinese currency, by Chinese development. By accepting what they have, precious metals, then they lock themselves into a deal where they're going to build out their infrastructure for, like they're both going to build together. Right. And we can't do that. We can't, as the United States, I say we, I mean the United States or the West and general, the West in general can't say, we're going to, say, well, we'll take your gold, because once you say we'll take your gold, you undermine your treasuries. It's like saying, you know, I'll take oregano instead of pot if you're a pot

smoker. You just, you can't do that. It doesn't, it's a horrible analogy, but I know, I couldn't think of anything, but we'll take titanium instead of gold, whatever. The point is, the point is, we can't admit that gold is a collateral asset. And that was actually part of the book that I wrote. As Good as Gold is about gold as a collateral asset. I'm not plugging it right now. Well, you can. Where can people find it?

It's on. I mean, heck, it's a podcast, Vince. You can plug as much as you want. As good as gold is a book that I wrote about the, it's a very brief book. You can read it one afternoon. It's a brief history of gold as a standard, as the gold standard, as being subservient to the dollar standard. now re-emerging as a collateral. So gold is reentering the stage as collateral and will be used

on the world stage. And it's a nice little history lesson and it actually gives led out the future. If you go through the recent history, right, of like basically them freezing everybody's gold and not allowing, not allowing them. Dollars. Well, we're going to get away from this and then going off the gold standard and everything. That's what everybody looks at. But what I see is, and once again, I'm looking at China, I just go, here's a superpower that's stockpiling gold. That signals to me in the future, gold is going to become more important, not less important. And so if you're the everyday person, it's not that you're going to stockpile. What did you say, 23 tons? Yeah.

In the 23rd month, it's like, yeah, I don't think I got that type of capital just sitting around. Right. On the same token, every little bit you stock away in the future, I don't see that being inverted. to where it's worthless. Right. Whereas we came through a period of time, or at least people that are a lot older than me went through a time where gold was almost worthless

because of the way it was treated and all the regulation and rules put around the use of it. And China was buying treasuries, not gold. So they were not helping gold either. They were very pro-treasury at the time. And they got a little bit nervous after the great financial crisis. But they stayed the course.

It's 2022 that flip. everything when as you said we froze Russia's gold we froze Russia's dollars Europe froze Russia's euros and Russia had no choice but to deal with gold and to deal with you want now on top of that other countries looked around and said well I'm a small country I'm Ghana right like well if they can freeze Russia's money and Russia's nuclear power yeah it can freeze my money it was a signal to the entire world if you're paying attention. Absolutely.

It's a single to the entire world. And the thing is, you know, when you talk, when you're bringing back to the individual investor, oh, well, you know, I have time, I can't afford, I can't afford to do it. One thing I'll agree with individual investors is China and India are printing money to buy gold. They're not printing money to buy food. They're printing money to buy gold. Like, here's my point.

When the price of gold was $2,000, India was buying, I'm making a number up, but it's going to be, the point is it's relative. They were buying 300 tons of gold a year. So when the price of gold was $2,000, they were buying 300 tons a year. Now the price of gold is $4,000, and they're buying 300 tons a year. They don't give a shit about the price. They only care about the molecules. They want the ounces. And that's because they're getting ready for their.

There's a reset that's coming. It's not going to be an announcement. Oh, there's a reset. It's here. Everybody, it's not going to happen that way. It's going to be a frog in a pot of oil. Well, we are a frog in a bottle of boiling water. Are we not?

Exactly. We are. We are. And that's the thing. If you can wrap your head around as an individual investor, that countries are printing money exclusively to the purpose of buying gold, then you should find money in your budget, in your allocation to buy gold and or silver. Yeah.

Whatever you can afford. And that's what I've been doing. Well, that's the nice thing about, like, an ounce of gold is, for most people, is expensive. Yeah. But the ounce of silver, you know, right now is, I think last time I checked about $80 Canadian, roughly. Right. And I don't know what that puts it at, American 60, 60, you know. So like, you can put away some ounces of silver quite easily.

Silver is great for stacking. You know, gold is, gold is, I mean, you know, it depends on your, your income. If you're high, if you're, if you're upper middle class, high net worth, you can put together, you know, let's say I'll buy two ounces a month or something like that. Or you buy it in a chunk, you know, like I'll buy X amount of ounces every six months. I'll save money up in cash and then put it in. Or I'll trade. I'll say I'm bullish on gold and gold will go out. But it's being very methodical about like not.

It's very hard. You've got to pay attention to gold. Whereas silver, you could say, I'm going to spend $200 a month in silver and it's going to work. You'll get three coins one month. You'll get four coins another month. You get two coins one month. But that's it. And you just keep stacking.

Just keep that. And you don't even feel it. That's the idea. That's the idea. Silver is good for that. And silver will be. Well, sorry, as the minion or the small investor, when I first started buying silver, well before I ever knew,

I started buying in COVID, because I was just. The $16. Well, and the world had lost its freaking mind. So what do you do? You go to things that make sense and have proven through history that they've lasted the test of time. And so I just start, I didn't even know it was,

I didn't even know it was called stacking back Me neither. I just started putting them in my box and I forgot all about them. I'm a financial person. I never heard that term until, say, five years ago. And then it goes to 150 Canadian, 120 U.S. And they're like, I feel like I got a few of those sitting somewhere, you know? Like I got to dig through box.

The question is, do you sell them or do you just shut up and watch? Well, so, you know what's funny? I got to listen to one of them. What are you going to buy with it if you sell it? Well, you got to, once again, you've got to have. have a plan in place, right? You got to have a plan. You got to buy what's depressed.

If silver were going to without, how about this? Here's the conversation that I have with myself. If silver or gold's equivalent were to go to $1,000 an ounce tomorrow, what would I do with it? Why would look at what's down? And if it's real estate, I'd buy the real estate. If it's not, then I would just stay with the silver and pull some money out and put it in cash.

But there has to be something worth buying when you take the money out because you know, precious metals lead the big inflation they're not going to they're not following the big inflation they lead the big inflation the big inflation is not here yet explain that to me they lead the big inflation well the the day-to-day inflation that we deal with you know the cost of food is up 3% 5% gold will track that more or less but the big inflation which is really the debasement of the currency the currency is no longer keeping pace with inflation and so the government is so for example if the u.s. government were to say go to what yield curve control they'll they'll basically tamp down the long-term yields and then they'll take that money

and then they'll print uh dollars with it that would be the big debasement so the the example is why does gold why does gold lag inflation when the markets are okay well because gold lags inflation because nobody believes that there's a problem the inflation will do this right well when inflation does this, then gold starts to get ahead of it. Gold's a very emotional asset. So if you were to look at a chart, say, of gold or in the Weiber Republic, it was up 50%, down 30%, up 70%. And that was before the currency debased, but that's pretty much it.

What do you say, like when you look at where the U.S. dollars had in, do you put a, I don't know, a time frame or like, you know, a guy's got to be careful. You know, Martin Armstrong talks an awful lot about 2032. He's been talking that number a lot longer than I've been listening to him, but I still remember in 2020 when he was bringing up 2032 and all the turmoil that was going to go on in the world. Here we sit at 2026, and I watch Russia, Ukraine, still going on, and the war drums being beat harder than I've ever seen them beat,

and I thought that was going to dampen down. And it did for a time when Iran happened. and certainly when Venezuela went on. Right. But it's back. Like, to me, it's as loud as it's ever been. X Zelenskyy's on X every second day, if not every day, calling them all for what they're bombing and everything else.

Meanwhile, they're penetrating deeper and deeper into Russia. And bombing diesel. Right. Right. Right. Yeah, I mean, when you look at what's going on, I mean, I mean, some people may, some people may be nodding their heads watching this thing. Yeah, of course, right?

But some people aren't nodding their heads. You need to hear this again. The world is gearing up for World War III. Not as it doesn't have to happen, but they're all preparing for it. So what do I mean by that? Well, the U.S. said we're going to pull out of, we're not going to put as much money into NATO. Why?

Because we're going to protect our own continent. There's a chart out there. You know, with the America's America First, essentially is about north and south. America. We've essentially changed all the all the all the all the governments of Latin America I say we've changed they've changed on their own but no they haven't we've influenced it you know the United States has influenced Malay Bolsonaro Latin America South America I should say has become almost entirely conservative

except for maybe Bolivia and then as well as technically still leftist. Sure, but you also went in and took out their leader. Yeah, I mean, if you're going to... We're sponsoring the next leader. Yes. Exactly. So when you look at... To answer the question, the question is about, you know,

why do I think things are getting worse? Well, things are getting worse because of what we did in the U.S. We basically invaded politically Latin America. And then you look at Europe and Europe's saying, well, the U.S. isn't putting as much money into NATO anymore. Now, Europe,

which has 18% of the population of the world, has 50, 50% of the world's welfare state. 50. And the flip side of that is the U.S. has 15% of the world's population and 50% of the world's military. So we're pulling our military out of Europe. They have a welfare state. That means they have to spend more money on military.

That's what they're all doing. 6% of GDPs. So everybody's gearing up for war in Europe. Meanwhile, you have all conservative politicians winning over there. In the U.S., we're consolidating our strength in Latin America and South America, kicking China out where we can. China, making stronger claims on Taiwan. And now you have these conversations that we're having with China are good,

but they're on the backdrop of you can't have our lithium you can't have our cobalt in fact today there was a there was a skirmish in Congo when we're recording this Congo there was a fight over

cobalt mine and we have mercenaries there and we're protecting that cobalt mine because it's for us meaning the U.S. And yeah so basically The U.S. is in a war in Congo right now over Kobol. So we're on the verge of a controlled world war.

I mean, Russia and Ukraine has been going on since 22. You know, that's a five-year war. That's a five-year war, and it's not near being closed. Then you got Gaza with the Middle East. That's, what's that, 23? 23, October 7, 23. We just passed it. 23, 24, 25, 20th.

That's a three-year war. So we're, you know, things are getting worse and not getting better. The world has moved in a more mercantilist state and more protectionism has come about of it. And now you have a more defensive posture by nations that are involved in. these things. I'm just making sure. I think you're right. I just wanted to, yeah, 2023. You're right. It's been three years. It's crazy. Yeah, it's crazy how we get sucked into it. Well, and how many different conflicts are going on, Vince? Like, I mean, honestly. Let's talk about Trump in that area, right? I mean, Trump, I'm going to end wars. And meanwhile,

he, I mean, the, the, depending on who you talk to, the Iran war could be the biggest blunder that the U.S. has made. And I'm not anti-Trump. I think Trump is the man for the job. I just think he's tactically not doing so well. Well, you look at Iran. I look at, I look run through his his track record. You got Venezuela, you have Greenland. You got Iran. Right. You have Canada's prime minister. He stuck his head in Canadian politics. They talk about all this interference, all this foreign interference. And I chuckle about it because I'm like, the one he did was Canada. It was right in front of my eyes. He just kept talking. The only reason they don't call it foreign influence interference is because the liberals the east of Canada wanted it. They

needed Trump to be who he was, create the enemy so that Mark Carney could attack him over and over and over again and get elected. I mean that continues to happen in Canada right now. Right, right. That's like that's over my pay grade but I see it now that you're saying it. Yeah. Mark Carney. So like I look at how many things he's- Carney is a reactionary to Trump. Carney is there because of Trump. Right. He's your reaction to Trump. I mean, whether you think Trump insulted or didn't insult whether he was joking or not joking,

a ton of Canadians, whether they're dumb or not dumb, took that as an insult. Yeah. And then voted in a guy who was going to stand up to Trump. He motivated the left to come out. Yes, he did. That's what he did. To consolidate behind the liberals. And now they have a majority government in our country, and they've ran it into the ground in 10 years.

Like, think about how wild that is. Right, right. Oh, I do want to mention one thing. I know that I know that I might be wrapping up soon, but specifically Canada. Canada just changed a about Canadian miners. We talk about Canada not having any gold and having its gold with its miners. Canada, if I could just interject this, Canada is changing its, its taxation rule, just the way the US changes CAPEX rule. Canada is allowing miners to expense their investments 100% in the first year. And that's a way. going to make a lot more gold be produced by Canada. So the Canadian miners should start to bubble up, at least I think. Well, I know where we're sitting, they want us out. So how about

we pause here and we'll see if I can figure something out so we can have a couple more questions. Because I do want to continue if you got a few extra minutes. I do. I have plenty of time. All right. So yeah, we were talking about Canada, the US, look, Trump, to his credit, We're recording now, right? Yeah. Trump, to his credit and to his chagrin, the dude created the one big, beautiful bill, which basically was a KAPX deduction for AI companies.

And basically what he said is, hey, if you're going to go out and buy a Boeing 747 and deduct it over the next five years, I'll let you buy it and deduct it over the next one year. So basically, you spend a billion dollars on a plane, you take that billion dollars and you write it down in year one and it goes against your return on investment and your stock price goes up so CEOs love that shit

data centers get built AI goes up in a storm and Canada goes hey wait that's not a bad idea we could do that for miners so as of Jesus less than two weeks ago miners a Canada made an announcement that they were going to do something called a paraphrasing me here something called a a accelerated depreciation or something like that or or super secret premium deduction where if a minor Canadian Minor Canadian operations got to be Canadian gold Canadian minor

I'm going to buy a caterpillar dump truck, or whatever they use, right? For my mining. And the tax benefit will be, instead of deducting that 10% for the next five years, it'll be 100% in the first year. Well, if I'm a miner, I'm going to buy three dump trucks because I can deduct that against my profits immediately. and create a situation where my stock price goes up,

I pull more gold out of the ground, and my shareholder value increases. So it looks very good for miners to do that. And now they're going to do that now. So I wonder, the flip side of that is always, why is Canada doing that? To demand that the miners sell them the gold at a discount the spot

who the hell knows but there is upside for Canadian mining now and I think you're going to see some activity and M&A activity because companies

with extra cash and free cash flow are going to be able to buy companies that have proven reserves, but the inability to pull it out of the ground faster. So that's my story. So if you're Canadian or just an everyday person, what should you be looking for then? Yeah.

There's two levels. The first level, the easiest level to understand is you want to buy Canadian miners with operations in Canada. candidate domicile that have free cash flow. So basically you're buying the majors. That's your first level. You're buying the majors because they have the money to go out and buy all the things. All the things, right, they have the free cash flow.

Now what's gonna happen is down the road, your juniors, your poorly run juniors, let's say, are gonna say, well, we like that deduction too. but we don't have the free cash flow. Let's go out and borrow the money. So they go to the bank, they borrow a billion dollars, they buy a billion dollars in caterpillar equipment,

they deduct it, their share goes up, they pull no metal out of the ground, and they collapse down the road. So, by the way, what I'm describing is a prediction because it happens in every damn industry. whenever the tax law changes to make it more amenable for an industry to spend now and deduct later

or deduct now your best companies do it first because they have the free cash flow right so your apples do it your your um your Amazon Amazon's though exactly great examples right Great examples. Right, so you start spending money on databases. Your Nvidia's doing. Then, after six months, the shittier companies get involved in doing it. And that's where we are now in the U.S. So that's what I would say is you stay with your better run companies.

Oh, Fiddler's Green. I know this bar. Never go here. Never go here. So you stay with the, Primo companies with operations in Canada. The Agnico's, the, I'm not personally recommending any particular company, but the Agnicoes, the Barracks, the Newmonts, barrack especially.

But you look, you go, if a company's been around for a considerable amount of time, has considerable market space captured, you go, they're going to reap a ton of rewards from this. What you have to be careful of is some of the junior ones, the smaller ones, who don't have the capital flow, but we'll see a bump in their stock a good chance because they'll take money out against it.

A hundred percent. And even then, in theory, there's money to be made there. Yeah, 100%. You just have to realize what risk you're dealing with. Right. You buy the juniors and you just don't get married to them. That's exactly right.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Exactly right. You have to know what you're doing there. And in fairness, that's not the type of guy I am. I'm not the one who's going to stare at that all the time and go. No, but that's the type of guy I am. I stare at screens all day long. Right.

You're going, if I buy these guys, I got to look at them every single day. Because I got to know when to pull the trigger to get out. Right. It becomes a nervous twitch. It's the, are you buying long? Are you, you know, are you buying or are you renting? Right. And I'm, I'm, uh,

The reason I like precious metals so much, Vince, is because I just buy them knowing that I'm going to keep them for a very long time. Yeah, they're not going anywhere. Right. Well, and actually everything from that we talked about earlier, with China and other places, for that matter, you brought up Poland, for instance. They're not, they're like, this is the new plan. We're going to buy gold. I hear that and I go, it's music to my ears. Right.

You know, whereas you go, well, you could buy this junior minor, but here's the risk of it. And this is how much you're going to have to pay attention to it. That's it. And I go, that's why people listen to you. Oh, welcome to traffic, folks. That's exactly it. Today's traffic report with Vince Lanchie, downtown Stanford. Exactly.

No, that's a solid point. The point being that when you buy gold, you're buying an inanimate object, you are buying a pet rock. It's not going to make any mistakes. It's not going to make any judgment. There's no one else's liability. There's no stress to it. There's no stress to it. But when you buy a miner, you have to know the company.

You have to know the geologist. You have to know the executives. You have to know where they are in the bigger picture. You know, the thing, you know, one of the things that I think makes it a little bit easier for people to understand is that I'm a CEO of a company. and the government comes down with a new rule. A new rule says, I can spend a billion dollars on equipment and deduct it all in year one. Now, I have a lot of extra cash. Now, no, wait, wait, before you go anywhere past that.

Go into that, yeah. If I have a company and I have a billion dollars, and I go out and buy a billion dollars worth of equipment, right now, for most people, they can't do that on year one. They have to spread that out over how many. years right right okay correct yeah yeah of course so the big difference here is that they get to take that billion and write it all off in year one exactly exactly and that's the whole point that's that's the point that I'm about to get to and the point I'm about to get to is to the CEO of the company who's doing that he looks at his

choices and his choices are a I have all this extra cash what can I do with it I can a buy my shares back which could get my shares up, B, declare one-time dividend, which would get my shares up, but only be short-term oriented, or C, spend a lot of money on a tax write-off that allows me to put it to my bottom line right away. So the billion, it's easier to spend a billion dollars than it is to implement a billion dollars in a share buyback. And so let's go out there and go, buy two airplanes, buy three cataparled dump trucks, buy a drill rig, just do it, just spend the money. And all it does is encourage this money spending, which by the way is what's happening in the US on the AI side,

which is why we have inflation. These companies are just spending money. But you know, I saw a chart a couple days ago, a couple weeks ago, I should say, that showed, you know, the biggest free cash flow industries in the country in the U.S. were your tech companies, your Amazon's and your apples. And now they're below miners. Miners, depending on the chart you're looking at, will show more free cash flow than tech companies. And that's because they're all starting to go into debt

to turn this AI dream into a reality, whether it works or not, who knows. Where do you come up on AI? Yeah. I've noticed, I mean, I'm kind of a little bit esoteric on it. I'm not directly playing an AI when I am doing as I'm shorting treasuries. I've been shorting treasuries off and on, short them cover, short them cover. Because I believe that the U.S. treasury market is at least partly connected to the AI market in the sense that if AI fails, the U.S. fails.

and so loosely speaking, not literally speaking. So I have been, I have been not completely focused on the AI situation, but knowing that it's basically a bubble that will break. I mean, there's, what's the number I saw yesterday? I forget who it was. Was it meta? said they had they said they budgeted for 70 billion dollars in revenue and they're off it's only going to come in a phil is chat open a i think 70 billion is only going to come in a 50 billion

that's that's that's that's a 30 percent error can you imagine that can you imagine can you imagine can you imagine just saying listen honey i'm going to make a thousand dollars this week give or take $300. Again, first off, my apologies to the listener, they're probably like, what is going on? So me and Vince started at, forgive me, the name of the place. Oh, Colony Grow. And then we walked back to where the camper is. Did you record some of that?

Oh, yeah, I record the entire thing. Oh, that's awesome. So, like, you're the second walking interview I've done on the trip. That's great. And now we're sitting in a park waiting, you know, Mel's getting groceries. I'm like, well, we're talking about things. You might as just click record. Yeah.

It's been such a discombobulated episode, which is life. That's life on the road. But actually, you're asking me, where do I want to end with the podcast? I was like, well, I'm going to ask everybody about Albert Independence. You know, by the time this airs, it'll be like a little less than a week until the October referendum. And somewhere along our chat, you were talking about how under Donald Trump, maybe the U.S. in general, even before him, after him, after. him, their influence on the Western Hemisphere, but I mean, obviously elsewhere in the world as we're seeing them, you know, move their military around and inflict things.

When it comes to Alberta, right, how much do you think that the U.S. is paying attention to it? And I don't mean the general population, Vince. I know the general population doesn't really care. But, you know, Elon Musk retweets or doesn't retweet, basically says Quebec should separate, Saskatchewan, Alberta should separate. That was just this past week. So, I mean, not that I care, right? Like, that doesn't, that isn't,

if that's governing your thought in Alberta on whether to vote yes on a referendum or no, I mean, go do a little bit of reading before one person says something and all of a sudden you're like, I'm doing it now, you know, I must set it. But who cares? It's giving an attention.

That's what Musk is doing that. I agree. I agree. Unfortunately, most people, people won't do the research or do the work and they will swear by something that a guy like or hate something that a guy like Elon Musk says, you know, you bring him up as stirring the pot. If you go back a couple years before Malay was elected for Argentina, he stirred the pot down there. He was the guy tweeting Malay. He was going to run running around with chainsaws as well. He stirred it up there. Far be it for me to say that that, that, that, that, that, that,

Elon Musk is a CIA operative, but it is, he's an influencer. And if I'm the government, excuse me, I'm starting my motorcycle. It's funny, anywhere I take you in this city, it just seems like the noise follows us. Exactly, exactly. So, I mean, far be it for me to accuse him of being a CIA operative, but he is an influencer. So if you've got a person on Twitter, or, X or whatever we're calling it now, two and a half to three million followers or whatever he has, but probably five million as far as I know, you'd be foolish if you were the government not to

tap him and say, we need you to push this agenda. And he pushed an agenda in Argentina, and it worked. And he pushed an agenda in Brazil. And it worked. Pushed an agenda in Brazil starting two years ago. Oh, civil rights in Brazil. Lula's horrible. And I remember that.

I was like, he's doing it again. So it almost feels like he's the PR point of the spear. So even though I think it's completely absurd, like this is me from my ignorance speaking, it's completely absurd to think that we would want to destabilize Canada and get Calgary to separate or how, Saskatchewan or Alberta or, you know. You say that, but okay, so look at it. this way, the deep stabilization of Canada has already been going on because, I mean, you have the 51st state comment to Trudeau. Right. Carney runs on Trump is bad. And instead of Trump, just putting

dampening out and say, no, no, no, they go have your election, whatever. I don't know how Trump could have said it, but he could have found a way out of that. Right. He feeds into it more. Oh, yeah. Gets Carney elected. I mean, you understand. Maybe you don't understand. Maybe I should the reason why the referendum is happening, bar none, is because the liberals get elected. If it had been a conservative government, there'd be no referendum. And going into... So it's kind of like a reactionary opposite.

So... You're saying Trump fucking wants Carney to win? I'm saying... And so it helps his case, his cause? I'm saying by Carney winning, the next day, Daniel Smith comes out, lowers the threshold for how many people needed for a referendum to take place the next day.

And after Carney wins his minority government, from that day forward, that night onwards, the only conversation that I talked about roughly for a year was whether or not they were going to have enough people to get a referendum on whether or not to stay in Canada. And so you go, Elon Musk is the point of the spear, but maybe they're one in, you know, not one in the same, but like Donald Trump. Oh, no, totally. I totally. Pushes on Canada, so they elect Carney, knowing full well. Everybody knew out in the West, if Carney gets elected, there's going to be independence movement again.

Right, right. Here it is. Right. The first time in Alberta history. It's like a color war. First time in Alberta history that they're going to have a referendum. Now, it's a referendum to see if we're going to have a referendum. It's not a true referendum, a binding referendum.

If you get 60%, you're out. But even if it was a true referendum, they got the Clarity Act in there, which means it has to be a clear majority. Tell me what that means, Vince. I don't know. Right. So then you have... 60%? Well, I don't know.

Is 60% enough? It's still 40%. 51%? 51% would make sense to me, but there'd be a lot of people who don't say that. Right, right, right, right. So I don't know. You know, if you had said to me, I mean, well, actually, you are saying it to me. You're saying it to me, and I'm saying I'm pushing back as a, as a, you know, pulling my Keynesian stuff out of my pocket and saying, and saying, nah, this isn't going to happen, it'll blow over.

But Brexit happened. And that should never have happened. But Brexit happened. You know what? Why can't this happen? Why can't it happen? I mean, and you're telling me that the day after Carney got elected or, you know, Within days after the day after the referendum bar was lowered correct from and and the rules were changed from 300,000 across 87 ridings you had to have a

So many amount of percentage of voters from each riding right to a hundred and seventy seven thousand they could come all out of the same riding Oh that's that's crazy changes crazy changes it was a shot across the bow now the the the So when I look at it, sorry, I just, I look at it, I go, the biggest influence we've had in Canadian politics, they'll talk about China, they'll talk about Russia, because of the way they subvert things, sure, I'm sure they're there, but the person that's out front evident is Donald Trump. Right. And now Elon Musk. And I'm not against or four, I just look at it and I go, if Donald Trump hadn't said anything,

we had Pierre Poliev leading every single poll and we're going to have a conservative government. Maybe, I'm just throwing this out there. Maybe that was a fuck-up by Trump, excuse my French. Meaning, we would have had a, you would have had a conservative government

and Trump pushed it too hard. No? I don't know. If I do that, then Trump is just a man and there's a whole bunch of people that think Trump is a 3D, 4D, 5D chess player. He's brilliant. I go, if he is, then why didn't he shore up his northern border?

He's not. He's not a 3D4. He's the right man for the job. And tactically, he's a mess. But strategically, he's doing what we need to do. Okay. Well, then I have, I have 10 questions for you before I let you out of here. 10?

10. Quick. Shit. Nice and quick. So what we're going to do is we're going to switch over to substack. We've been on a wild ride. Why not just make it a little more wild? So if you want to hear the rest of the wild ride,

Flip over to Substack, I'm going to ask Vince 10 bonus questions. Okay. I'm not sure I'll be able to answer them, but all right, I'll do my best.