Shaun Newman Podcast - #627 - Martin Armstrong

Episode Date: April 30, 2024

He is CEO of Armstrong Economics and is the developer of the economic confidence model based on business cycles which is best known for calling the crash of 1987. Let me know what you think. Text me 587-217-8500 Substack:https://open.substack.com/pub/shaunnewmanpodcast E-transfer here: [e-mail] Website: https://silvergoldbull.ca/ Email: [e-mail] Text: [phone] – and be sure to let them know you’re an SNP listener.

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Let's not take that what we just said out of context. Sure. All right. Sure. In my smoker voice, you take it however you want, folks. Now on to the tale of the tape. He is CEO of Armstrong Economics and is the developer of the economic confidence model based on business cycles, which is best known for calling the crash of 1987. Talking about Martin Armstrong, so buckle up, folks.

Good evening. Martin, thanks for joining us here at the Cornerstone Forum. Appreciate you being a part of this event. Well, thank you for inviting me. You know, I guess when we started this, Martin, the idea was to kind of peer into the future and see what, you know, the world was doing and see if we could navigate some of what the world or our political leaders or elites keep trying to force down some of our throats. I was curious, you know, I guess where I wanted to start with you was, you know, when you look at the next year and you're you're advising people, you know, like maybe pay attention to this event

or maybe pay attention to what's going on here. Where do you look? And, you know, I guess I'm really, like, you know, this time next year, like April 2025, you know, when you look at the next year, what are you paying attention to? Well, we have problems both internationally, but also domestically. On a domestic level, our computer's been projecting, you know, a rise in war and civil unrest since 2014. And it's all starting to really come to a head. This particular election, I really don't care who wins. Neither side's going to accept it. And the country is just so polarized.

So we're, we do see very sharp rise in. civil unrest related to this election on a domestic level. Internationally, we have wars in the Middle East, in Europe, and Asia. I think people have to understand that the main role of the president is when he sits in these cabinet meetings, he's supposed to be the referee. And you have all these agencies, everybody, they're like children. They all just want their own way. So you have basically the people in the State Department threatening, you know, everybody they can with war around the world.

And they don't even understand that, for example, China is the largest holder of debt. So then you have Janet Yellen hopping on a place. to China saying, please still buy our debt. I mean, if China has been selling off, but the problem, how countries collapse is when they're in these Ponzi schemes of debt. If you can't sell the new debt to pay off the old, that's when the default comes. So the real problem we have, the real problem we have here is that these people threatening China, if they stop buying, we have serious problems economically. Interest rates are going up, not down. And it just sets off a cascade event throughout the

entire economy globally and internationally. In Europe, you know, this war in Ukraine, people have to back and look at it objectively here, nobody ever that I've ever spoken to in Washington ever expected Ukraine to win. All right, Russia had 4.5 million people in the Army without drafting. They were just using it to try to, you know, kill as many Russians as possible and reweaken them for NATO to confront them later on, which is what seems to be. you know, developing now. You have Poland saying, gee, if Ukraine falls, we have to go in, France, you got Macron saying NATO should send in troops. I mean, Putin was actually telling the truth. There was a peace deal. Boris Johnson hopped on the plane, told Zelensky to kill it. That actually

made the front page newspapers in Ukraine. So, I mean, ever since then, you've had over 500,000 Ukrainians have been killed. I mean, this is not for the benefit of Ukraine. And then Zelensky just had to come out a couple of weeks ago. And because people were starting to say, you know, what are you doing to our country? You know, we can't decide our own fate. And he came out and said, oh, no, no, we can decide if we want peace or not. I mean, then you got, you know, in the Middle East, it just seems like you take the entire world, throw it in a cup, put the top on, shake, and see what comes out, you know.

It's on every possible front. And then you actually had people ask Janet Yellen, do you think the United States could afford wars on all these defronts? And she's, oh, yes, of course, you know, without any regard to people. who are involved or anything else. So gold has been rising, and I've been saying for a long time, that gold does not rise with inflation. It rises with the decline in the confidence of government. And that's what's happening.

Gallup polls have shown that confidence in Congress is now down the 7%. you know, confidence in government itself on the Gallup poll is 28%. These are historic lows. You used to believe the government. You know, now it's like whatever they say, people are like, I don't know, what lie is this one? And it's not just the U.S. It's throughout Europe. And I think COVID was the,

catalyst for it. Because everybody now, Germany, they realize the government has lied. You know, documents have come out showing that they knew lockdowns didn't work and neither did masks. Yet they still

did it. You know, so you're getting to the point that people just fed up and I think you do have a rising mass of discontent. And that's probably going to materialize with this 24 election.

I mean, in my entire lifetime, I've never seen the government weaponized the legal system like this. I mean, it's not just Trump. I mean, they just indicted 18 people, 18 Republicans in Arizona for simply saying the Trump one. I mean, what's going on in this country? We're becoming a banana republic. And the foolishness here is that don't they realize that you're not going to be in power all the time unless you're eliminating everything and making a dictatorship? All right, because when the other side gets in, they're going to do the same thing to you. So you're tearing the very fabric of the rule of law apart at the seams.

So this is not, you know, I'm not very optimistic that we're going to see things settle down. Our computer has been projecting for quite some time that our forms of government republics are going to collapse. they are traditionally the most corrupt in history. I mean, even a monarchy or a dictatorship isn't as corrupt because you can't bribe them. But in a republic, everybody's up for sale. You know, it's this is just, it's just not working. You know, the founding fathers had a great idea, but, you know, they made some mistakes. There should have been, you know, government by the people and for the people was a fantastic idea.

But, you know, they didn't put in term limits. You know, so you have these people to become career politicians. It's not just here, but you look at Europe, the same thing. Look at Macron in France. You know, I mean, these people, once they're there, it's like a drug to them. They're addicted. Well, where I see where I say, where I say, sit here in Canada, Martin, we have Justin Trudeau right now. And I think a lot of people, although

paying attention to the American election, are also paying attention to our own election, because, you know, you're talking about term limits. We could face another term of Justin Trudeau. And he just continues to take us deeper and deeper into a banana republic to use one of your terms. Look, I know Klaus Schwab. The two of us have been, you know, confronting each other, I would say, since probably 1985. But he is, he actually does have a bust of Lenin on his shelf in his office. He is a control freak.

And he thinks that absolute, you know, he, They don't like democracy. They don't like our right to vote. I mean, Trudeau is just, I mean, it's the same thing everywhere you go. You know, it's a debate as to who's worse, Biden or Trudeau, you know. But, you turn to Europe. It's the same thing. And not a single world leader is even questioning peace.

nobody even brings it up yeah uh oh we got to get them whatever i mean when i was growing up i mean you know everybody was for world peace nixon hopped on a plane and opened up china to divide china from russia's to create world peace all right um today we pushed them together so when when you you know it i agree with you when when you look at this and and go back to one of the things you said right off the hop was China is the largest debt holder. And I don't see any world leaders talking about, you know, finding workable solutions to some of the troubles we face across the globe. And that leads to some talk of war with China.

If something were to happen to the largest debt holder in the planet, on the planet, what does that mean to the rest of us? You mentioned a couple things, but I wouldn't mind if you'd talk just a little bit more about that. Well, the reason they're looking at these wars and nobody's interested in peace is, I can tell you firsthand, what they're really looking to do is create these wars so they can default on their debt. And then the idea is to create Breton Woods, too. And the new reserve currency will be a digital currency from the IMF. This is what these people really think.

They know there's no solution here. I mean, just look at these debts. Is it ever even possible to pay it off? When Ronald Reagan was president, everybody freaked out because the national debt hit $1 trillion. This year, our interest expenditures will be $1 trillion. I mean, there is no, you know, possible way of solving this situation without a default. And, you know, we have to understand that.

They have grasped that problem. And that's what Schwab is even saying. You'll own nothing and be happy. All right. That's what he's really getting at. That, you know, we can't continue this. Why do you borrow money year after year if you never intend to pay it back? there's something seriously wrong with this system.

If they default on all their debt, Martin, I assume there's some pain that happens immediately after that. If that were to come, what are the things that are the fallout immediately after of defaulting on debt? Basically, you go, everything that's tangible is what really survives. If you look at Germany after the end of the hyperinflifference, you know, it's, you know, inflation. They came out with a new currency in 1925. It was backed by real estate. That's why you see real estate rising. I mean, I'm in Florida. I get at least three calls a week. Gee, you want to

sell your house? No thanks. You know, goodbye. You know, what am I going to do? Go to Chicago. You know, it's the traffic here has at least doubled in the eight years that I've been here. I was often in Austin, Texas, meeting with a bunch of clients out there, and they were talking about moving to Florida. And I said, why? They said, well, these illegals at least have to swim to get to you. Everywhere you go, it's, I mean, this, it's interesting that this movie Civil War came out. actually on the April 12th, which was the first day in 1861 that the Civil War took place. I went to go see it. I'm actually going to go see it again. I mean, it's been the number one in box offices for over two weeks now.

Because everybody knows something is wrong. And the movie does not tell you the why. There's like a couple of scenes and one guy says, what's going on? Well, they're trying to kill us. So we're trying to kill them. There's no explanation as to how you got there. But this is pretty much it. We show civil unrest is coming. You look at Canada, you'll probably also split apart from West versus East. U.S. will clearly split up at least into two, if not three.

I mean, you know, you look at, you know, Ukraine. What Zelensky has done is deliberately try to invoke a civil war there. He outlawed in the Donbos, outlawed them even speaking their own natural language Russian. Then that was enough. He then said he attacked their religion. Well, you can't be subservient to the patriarch like their Pope in Moscow. You have to be to mine here in Kiev. And that didn't work.

So now he actually came out and says, you can no longer celebrate Christmas Orthodox. It has to be December 25th. I think if Canada outlawed French, I think you would find a civil war there too. You know, it's you can't do. these kinds of things. People are entitled to their own culture. I mean, California versus Florida is like night and day. This is just the way it is. We may be one country, but there are different

pockets of culture, and you can't have a centralized government dictating this. This is what brought down the Soviet Union. And most people don't realize the history of that. But Lenin was a communist, but he wanted to create something more like the United States, where all the states were independent and retained their sovereignty. All right, Stalin is the one that said no. And they believe that Stalin even poisoned Lenin. And Lenin had written a letter, do not let you know, Stalin's assignee. It was Stalin who usurped all the power, central control, and, you know, it didn't work. You know, and Schwab reminds me of him, actually, with this authoritarian dictatorship idea.

And just as in Canada as it hears in the United States, you cannot change people's cultures. I mean, you take like the abortion issue. The Supreme Court said, okay, fine, it should go back to the states, which is correct. In some areas, it violates their religion. You can't say no, you have to accept it. You know, then you are going to get civil war. You know, California, you know, if a kid wants to change their gender, the parents not. even allowed to know. I mean, this is crazy. You know, that would never fly in Florida. But when you look, sorry, Martin, when you, I think here, you know, one of the things you've said before and you've said it again is Canada splitting and splitting maybe into multiple spots. When I, when I hear that,

at certain times, I completely can understand how we get there. And at other times I'm like, man, a lot of things got to happen in between here and there. to make that possible. You know, like, I know it doesn't write out a plan of how you get from, you know, A to B, so to speak. But, you know, when you look at Canada splitting, certainly the value sets of different areas, different pockets, like you point out, is becoming more and more evident. But, I mean, like a lot of things have to happen in a, you know, I don't know the time frame in order to get to that. because that's a pretty substantial thing of all sudden Canada splits. It's not as long drawn out as you think.

If you look at throughout history, sometimes it's just one event that does it. And you take the Roman Empire. Once the emperor Valerian was actually captured, in a battle by the Persians. That set off a financial panic. Banks weren't sure if they should continue to take Roman coins. I mean, that was the final blow. And then you can see from the monetary system,

within eight years, it just completely collapsed. So communism, it collapsed. People thought, oh, well, because of communication, it's not true. If you go back, Rome overthrew its kings in 509, you know, BC. And within six months, Athens says that's a great idea and overthrew their tyrants. And democracy was born. It swept the entire ancient world at that point. So sometimes it's just a spark. It's not necessarily a logical thing, but what has been going on in Canada and the United States is like this climate change thing is really an excuse for power.

You know, you have Biden outlawing guestos. Well, I grew up with a guest dove, but I think I'm still alive, you know. This gets to be absolutely, you know, insane. You know, Trudeau, you know, undermining fossil fuels. I mean, that's the basic economic cornerstone of Alberta. You know, it's, you've already set these disputes in motion. So it won't necessarily take some, you know, a long, drawn out affair. Something can spark it and that's it.

Perhaps the war does it. Trudeau trying to send off troops, you know, whatever. But there's something that usually happens in our computer. I don't see this. I think war is probably going to peak out by around 2027. So I don't see this as a long drawn out affair. If you were sitting, if you were sitting, Martin, in Alberta, Saskatchewan, specifically, you know, where I sit today is right on the border of those two provinces.

And you were looking, you're going, okay, well, something's going to happen in the next whatever time frame, whether it's a year, whether it's, you know, 10 years that's going to set things in motion. You've outlined that, you know, it could be, you know, not even like a logical thing. It could just be something that sparks it way it goes. If you were sitting in one of the two provinces, what would you be doing? Would you be acquiring land then? or would you be putting your money into gold, silver, Bitcoin?

Would you be buying things? Would you be like, maybe it's just time to get out? What would you be thinking to yourself when you look at where the projections go and you know that civil unrest is not decreasing? It's increasing and it's showing a split of like Canada's going to break apart. What would you be doing if it's sitting in this neck of the woods? Well, I think, you know, the two main things, you'll be looking at is primarily land.

And gold is the medium of exchange. All right. So that could replace money, per se, in what you would call a black market, which will always emerge. They want to eliminate cash. I mean, Trudeau canceled your high-denomination notes already. They think that eliminating,

cash. The way they look at us is that we are the enemy. And you have to understand that. This whole thing in moving to CBDCs is that they think that eliminating paper cash and everything goes into a CBDC, they will get 35% more in taxation. Even U.S. IRS. down here, the official number is that everybody cheats by 35%. This is the way they look at us. Europe, it's the same thing. I've been in meetings in Europe. They think eliminating cash, they will increase their tax revenue by 35 to 40%.

You know, and I've argued, I don't care what you think you get. You will still spend more than what you take in. I mean, this is not, you know, they look at. like we, oh, we're the enemy. They wouldn't have this debt problem if it wasn't for us. And that's just total nonsense. That's why we cannot have career politicians. Because once they're on that side, forget it.

You're gone. At my last conference, I had a friend of mine who was chief of staff on the House Banking Committee. And I put them on the stage. and because I didn't think people would believe me. He said, you become the leader not by being the strongest, but by the weakest. The guy that agrees to everything. Just look at what just took place with Johnson in the Senate. Everybody's shocked.

Oh, my God. He gave up everything. That's what they do. All right. To get to that position, they have to please everybody. They're not going to be some warrior. to defend the people in the country. It's not going to happen.

It's sad to say, but that's the truth. I'm curious your thoughts on, like here in Canada, you know, people are shocked by it, I guess, on how much involvement the Chinese have in our government, you know, it's come out that they've had, ran an election interference, 2019, 2021, and been pushing a lot of foreign money and investment into our country. You know, from where you stand, you know, I sit here. I didn't know, you know, pretty much anything five years ago. So to say that I knew a whole lot about how different countries look at different, you know,

how to interact with different countries and how to influence them and different things like that. When you hear all the news coming out about China's involvement in Canada, does that shock Martin Armstrong or is Martin like, I know, this is this is as old as time as well? Pretty much. You had Obama sending up teams to help Trudeau get elected. I was in London when, you know, they were trying to push for a labor government with Tony Blair. Everybody advised Clinton, they were there. They all worked together globally. It is nothing new. Okay, well then my final question before I let you go and I appreciate you giving us some time tonight here at the Cornerstone Forum is the White House is, it just came out this week. The White House is now considering declaring a national climate emergency which would give Biden, give Biden COVID-like powers. What do you like, you know, when you say they all work together, if Biden's thinking this or the White House is thinking this or his handlers are thinking this, whoever it is, chances are he's not alone. I would almost guarantee he's not alone.

Do you think that's a possibility? And if so, what timeline would you put on that if they're talking about it or mentioning it now? Oh, yes. I mean, look, this is the next phase. COVID was a scam. They knew that lockdowns does not work. They also knew that masks did not work. All the documents have been coming out, you know, from Germany.

on that. This was about control, and this comes back to the whole problem of the debt that I was talking about. They know the system is no longer sustainable. So what they are afraid of, when they are going into this, they can't keep it up, people are going to be storming, you know, the capital buildings with pitchforks. You know, their pensions are gone, et cetera. So what are they doing? This This is, oh, climate. Look, I've got models. Climate change is absolute another fraud. The climate has always changed. There's a cycle to climates. We've had ice ages, warming periods, et cetera. I mean, this is all nonsense, long before fossil fuels are ever around. But they use this. And the United Nations has been behind it because they want to use it. as the justification for a world government. And so you have the who coming out with, we will determine when there's going to be a pandemic

and everybody has to comply. It's a centralized power is what they're doing. All right. You've got gates behind it. Soros is behind it. I mean, they're handing out pamphlets to these people coming across the border. You know, here you go.

We're letting you in. to keep the borders open, make sure you vote for Biden in writing. That's what this is all about. So they need the war to default. They're using the climate change. And I can tell you they're probably going to do it before the 24 election. The 2020 election, if you remove the mail-in ballots, Trump won. And, you know, that's not a conspiracy theory or anything else.

That's plain fact. So what they're doing, again, they used COVID back then to justify mail-in ballots for the 2020 election. They're doing this again. There's another pandemic that's on the, you know, this bird flu. It's already in cows, et cetera. They're going to use that. They're using climate change. and again to create lockdowns and then what?

Oh, you have to mail in your vote. Once you do that, you know, it's over. Look, what they're doing to Trump is, you know, it's absolutely unbelievable. But why are they fighting with Trump so much? because they're scared to death and he's still well above in the polls. All right. 50 to 30 some percent, you know, in the battleground states. They know they will lose.

So they have to rig this again. All right. Lockdowns is going to be the best way to do it. If it's for climate, bird flu or whatever, they'll just come up with every excuse they need. But what they're afraid of is that, Trump now knows the game. And so he's against climate change.

He's against war. I went down to Mar-a-Lago for dinner. I think it was in March 2020 when he was still president. And he's actually the only head of state that ever impressed me. He said he wanted to bring the troops out of Afghanistan. But he said he was sick and tired of writing. letters to their families to say their son died for God in countries. He says, what are we doing there? They've been fighting over borders for a thousand years. What difference are we going to make?

And I am quoting him. That's why he wanted them move out. Kennedy was against Vietnam. They assassinated him. All right. Trump is too much of a risk to them. If he won't go along with the war agenda, he will not go along with the climate change agenda. That's enough. All right, forget the draining of the swamp and everything else. I mean, it would have been nice if he could have done that, but I didn't see how that was possible. Nobody was going to vote, yes, you're right, I should only be here for two years and never come back again. They're not going to vote against themselves. To do that, you need a revolution or something. But this is why they're fighting Trump so much. This is their power.

They see this as usurping all the power and centralizing. And actually, Jamie Diamond really did surprise me. I mean, he's the head of Chase Bank in New York. At Davos, I was shocked. He came out and you can look up his speech. He said Trump was right. He was right about the border. He was right about China.

and he was right about NATO. That third one really shocked me. I mean, NATO is basically really just a terrorist organization. Russia has never had any, you know, inkling since communism fell to go in and take over Europe. I mean, that was the days of Khrushchev. All right. When communism fell, I got a hold of the,

declassified documents from the Clinton administration. Again, Putin was telling the truth. There it was, and I published it, Russia was invited to join NATO. Why? If Russia is not a threat, why do you need NATO? All right? These people were afraid that climate change was going to take all their money, so they constantly have

to beat the war drums. That's in their own self-interest. They lose your jobs if there's peace. That's the problem with NATO. They're always going to support their own agenda. Well, Martin, I appreciate you giving us time. You know, it's never dull when you come on this side. If there's a final thought from you, is there a hopeful thought

or you just see war and civil unrest in the future? In the near future, yes. The light at the end of the tunnel is this time, let's learn from our mistakes. We're going to get a shot at redesigning government. Let's do it right this time. And not just listen to the fake news like unfortunately our founding fathers did back then. Well, I appreciate you coming and giving us some time tonight, Martin. All the best, and we will chat, I'm sure, soon enough. Thanks again. Well, thank you for inviting me and take care up there.