Shaun Newman Podcast - #786 - Martin Armstrong

Episode Date: January 28, 2025

Martin Armstrong is the CEO of Armstrong Analytics and is renowned for his economic forecasting model, the Economic Confidence Model, which has notably predicted major market events. He has advised governments and financial institutions worldwide, offering insights into market trends, currency movements, and geopolitical impacts on the economy. We discuss Canada the 51st state, 25% tariffs, the media is still lying and the rise of populist leaders. Cornerstone Forum ‘25 https://www.showpass.com/cornerstone25/ Contribute to the new SNP Studio E-transfer here: [e-mail] Get your voice heard: Text Shaun 587-217-8500 Substack:https://open.substack.com/pub/shaunnewmanpodcast Silver Gold Bull Links: Website: https://silvergoldbull.ca/ Email: [e-mail] Text Grahame: [phone]

Welcome to the podcast, folks. Okay, we're trying it out today. We have decided to try and video the intro. We'll see how this goes and how clunky it is. And once again, there's going to be lots of screw-ups on this sucker. But oh, well, here we go. This is the first crack ever at doing it on camera. So if you're listening, you're missing out of the part here.

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They place a giant filter order directly to the manufacturer. Filters arrived by mid-Aprilts for pickup. And it's in time like this. How does that read? Here we go, folks. This is why I don't do the things in camera. We time it like this. I could just read it.

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real appreciation for people on like, I don't know, sports net or whatever, where it's live television, you've got to rattle it off. I'm sure they do more out of camera and that's how they, but to not have the script, that's a talent. You know, once again, first time I've ever done it here on camera. So if you're watching this, well, buckle up. This has been a ride. Here's just a couple of, you know, I mentioned RAM.

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Parts here in Wainwright, they can get you hooked up. Give him a call at 780842-3433. That's Shane Stafford and some incredible savings there for you for his annual filter sale. Check that out. Substack. It's free to subscribe to if you haven't been to paying attention. You should sign up for the substack. If you're not a paid subscriber, it's once a week. Sundays at 5 p.m. We do the week and review. Doing a show five days a week.

We had lots of different feedback from all of you that it's, you know, at times you go through cycles, no different than me with different podcasts. You're listening to everything and sometimes you're not. One of the ways to stay up to date on the different guests that have come on the podcast is substack. It's free to subscribe to once a week. I don't blow up your inbox. I don't like that. You get a two-minute video among some other info on the Cornerstone Forum and, you know, just some odds and ends that are going on on the behind the scenes on the podcast for free. And if you become a paid member, we're being a little more interactive as you'll hear with the first question to Martin Armstrong today.

But certainly there's different ways to be involved in that. We got a new studio coming in 2025. There's videos on that. We're looking for skills, labor, materials, money. and if you want to be on the wall that's getting put in there, the value for value, the latest is Scott and Atlanta. Oh, boy, Rootan. I hope I'm saying that right.

They're going to be the latest. They tossed in a little bit of funds for it. So shout out to those fine folks. Lakeland College, they got a women's basketball program, have a protest happening February 4th, noon at the Lloydminster campus, under the slogan, no king, no ring. And as I receive more details, I'll continue to update you. And if you're watching on Spotify, Apple, YouTube Rumble, X, as you can see, I'm looking at you now.

I'm talking to you. Hit the retweet button, share it, share it with a friend, like, comment, all those things. Well, they do help. All right. Let's get on to the tale of the tape. He is the CEO of Armstrong Economics and is the developer of the Economic Conference. model based on business cycles. I'm talking about Martin Armstrong. So buckle up. Here we go. Welcome to the Sean Newman podcast today. I'm joined by Martin Armstrong. Sir, thanks for hopping on.

Well, it's always a pleasure to join you. How you doing? I'm doing very well. You know, I, uh, if I may say, I was supposed to meet you, um, um, back when Tucker Carlson was, uh, I think it was a Donald Trump Jr. in Florida way back when and then a hurricane came through. And literally it was like God literally said you're not meeting Martin Armstrong today. But I'm hopeful that that doesn't, I don't think we're going to have any hurricanes up here in Canada in May. But certainly you joining the next Cornerstone Forum up here in Canada is going to be a lot of fun.

I mean, barring our government leaders not doing anything too insane. That, you know, get that off the rails, Martin. I mean, I can't speak. We still got, what do we got? We got just under five or four months and we're there. But you're going to be in Calgary. May 10th. So I'm excited to meet you in person, barring God or our stupid leaders doing something that really derails this. Well, if it was Britain, Stammer would probably be arrest me for something

I said 10 years ago, you know? You're not wrong. You're not wrong. First question I want to give to Brandon Benno. We've been working on a new thing here on Substack, Martin, where we're bringing our audience in. They fall along just as closely as I do. And Brandon wanted to know, Martin, in your eyes, how realistic is it for Canada to become the 51st state? I think that's a lot of chatter up here in Canada. I don't think that's realistic. You know, I'm not even sure why he threw it out there. I think mainly because Trudeau is so unpopular, I suppose.

But I kind of like the the alternative that one of your politicians said they would take Canada. I mean, they would take California, Oregon, Washington, Vermont. I'd even throw in New York and then give us, you know, BC and Alberta. Yeah, they could have Vancouver too. But, well, I think one of the things then that I think a lot of people are really curious about, you know, like, We went from him warning 25% tariffs to the, oh, wait, that's not going to happen to now February 1st. And then I think people have been paying attention to what Donald Trump's been doing and signaling since he got in the office and sworn in.

25% tariffs. Your thoughts on that, Martin? You know, look, I understand who I'm not sure exactly who it is. But somebody had told him that before the income tax, the country was funded with just tariffs. That's true, okay. But we also didn't have socialism. So there was no social security and all this stuff.

There's no way terrorists would fund all, something like that. But worse than that, it would really say, send much of the world into a depression or recession depending upon where you're at. Europe would go into absolute depression. When you do something of this nature and you put tariffs on them and you think you're going to do accomplish what.

you know, you're going to sell less to them now as well, even if they don't retaliate. All right, because their economy will go down. All right. So, I mean, the Great Depression was all based upon similar problems in the sense that they, you know, you had smooth haulie and they went into protectionism. and it's really all about currency. And I, in all honesty, I'm getting very kind of frustrated with governments. I mean, honestly, since 1985, I was called in when they were forming the G5. And what was that about?

The dollar went up because they, Boker had raised interest rates. 17%. So everybody was buying U.S. debt. You know, you could buy CDs paying 20%. I mean, this was nuts. All right. So that drove the dollar up. So you created deflation between 1980 and 1985. The dollar went up so high. So they created the G5 at the sum of, you know, at the Plaza Accord, to lower the value of the dollar by 40% for trade. That's also what FDR did in the Great Depression. That's why he confiscated gold to devalue the dollar because it, too, had gone up to astronomical levels.

And so I had written to Reagan at the time after being called into that stuff, and I said, look, you're going to cause a crash in two years. What these people don't get is fine, you lower the value of the dollar, so you, you know, exports will be cheaper and you'll sell more. Very nice. But you'll also lower the value of all assets in the United States in the eyes of a foreign investor.

I warned them, they had sold a third of the next. national debt to Japan at the time. I said, they're going to sell. Oh, why would they do that? Because they're going to lose money, you idiot. And then you got the 87 crash. Some 20% decline in a single day. It was the worst ever, really. Then in the 90s, Robert Rubin had a secretary of Treasury, all right, came from Goldman Sachs, started the same nonsense, talking about, you know, oh, the dollars should be lower for trade. And I wrote to him, I said, listen, I got called into 87 crash because do not do this. All right. Oh, well, gee, we wouldn't want to cause a crash, blah, blah, blah. That created the 1997 Asian currency crisis. All right. All right.

These people are idiots. They really are. And I am not exaggerating it in the least. The problem we have with all governments. And as you know, I've been called in for everywhere from China to the Middle East, whatever, 97 Asian currency crisis. I was the first person called in by the Bank of China. All right. I went because. I wanted to see the Berlin, you know, the Chinese wall. I said, all right, fine. I thought I'd have to listen to a bunch of bureaucrats. All right, you know. But the problem comes. You make a mistake in life and you're less likely to do it again, unless you're a real idiot. All right. The problem with government is we keep changing them all the time whoever's in power so each person comes in oh that would be a good idea let's lower the value of the dollar so we can sell more shit and they don't understand the world economy they really don't um you put you know you lower the value of the dollar yeah okay fine you can sell cars cheaper or outside but then real estate stock market

Everything else is also discounted. If they're going to lose money, guess what? They sell and they leave. You know, I get called into these things so many every single time. You know, the Swiss peg, you know, I met with a Swiss central bank. I said, the peg's going to break. Oh, well, we think we can hold it. I said, very nice.

I said, I think history's on my side. Not one country's ever been able to do this. It broke. All right. People lost 20% on their housing because they bought Swiss loan mortgages and stuff. You know, Margaret Thatcher, she's the only one that listened to me. All right? She kept the British out of the Euro.

So then they staged a coup to get rid of her. But they wanted to be part of the Euro. John Major, they put it into the ERM. That's what made George Soros so famous. They overvalued it. Everybody started shorting it. I end up getting called in on that one again because I had advised Thatcher not to get in. So they called, I said, look, you overvalue the pound.

You're going to have to devalue it. I was told we can't do that because John Major during the election promised he wouldn't devalue the pound. So I wrote the paragraph for them. said okay fine say this i'm going to allow the pound to float to seek its own level oh brilliant it's the same thing it's just he did it versus i did it you know i mean come on um you know and then the pound breaks the soros made a ton of money you know um this has been going on all the time i get very frustrated i'm sick of it you know it's one thing you know you know you always advise the government, okay, fine, don't do this. Thank you very much. And they don't do it again,

but they do it all the time. So it's like, you know, what's the point? You know, you change the leadership and everyone comes in and they think they got the greatest, you know, new ideas since sliced bread. You know, and it just goes over and over all the time. So I will write to, I mean, to to Trump again, do not lower the value of the dollar because his nominee for Secretary of Treasury said the same stupid thing. Oh, we'll lower the value of the dollar to sell, you know, to help the trade deficit. Come on. This is, you know, okay, what else you want to blow up? I mean, I'm tired of it. I really am tired of it. It's one thing, I've been doing this for 40 years. It would be nice if they just listened collectively.

If they were, if they were listening, Martin, what would you tell them to do that? Look, the first thing, I mean, I even testified before the House Ways and Means Committee. I think somebody, because I have been screaming a lot about this, I think somebody did pull my testimony and have at least suggested that to Trump. Back then, I testified, I said, look, two things, why we have a problem on trade. One U.S. taxes worldwide income. Nobody else did other than Japan. Secondly, our taxes are way too high. I said, why is so much. many companies staged their headquarters in Hong Kong. All right. It's because Hong Kong's tax rate

was 15%. That was it. It was the lowest around. All right. So you had all these companies ending up, setting up their headquarters there for taxes. All right. And basically what I said, you want to solve the tax, you know, the trade deficit. People, people, People left, not because, gee, I'm going to pay this guy $2 an hour instead of five. That's not the issue. All right. The issue is taxation. You know, when they asked me if why no American company got any of the contracts to build the Yellow River Dam in China.

I said, very simple. The Germans got them because they don't tax worldwide income. They were already 35% cheaper. It's like, open your money. eyes. Don't you understand this? So I did find it interesting that Trump came up with the 15% number. So I think somebody read my testimony. I said, lower the taxes to 15%. And he did say that all of a sudden, shifting on the on the tariff issue to some degree. 15% will be the lowest in the world and they'll come here. That is the solution to this nonsense. But I mean, when I was restructuring

many of the multinational companies that went to get into Europe, if they needed the best tax deal, like the airlines, they stuck them all in Ireland. If they needed the best deal for, but they needed skilled labor, I was putting them in Britain. I'd put nobody in France and I put nobody in Germany. I happened to have known Margaret Thatcher's personal advisor, his name was Sir Alan Walters. And she had heard this rumor. There's this guy sending companies to Britain, you know, and he says, yeah, that's Marty. You know them? And he said, yeah. So that's how I got to meet Thatcher.

She was very smart. She understood immediately what I was talking about. I said, look, you know, if I put somebody with, you know, they need the skilled labor. If I put them in Germany, it was 40% more on the taxation relative to employees. And the employee doesn't see any difference. All right. I mean, these people don't understand the world economy. I was called into one of the major companies in Germany in telecommunications.

I was in London. I get this call. We're going to have a board meeting, emergency. Would you come over here in the morning? I said, what's up? You'll find out when you get here. All right, so I hop on the plane I go over. I go into this meeting.

They appoint our firm, the advisor to their pension funds. No proposals, no outline, nothing. And then they basically resigned. I said, what the hell is going on here? Is this a Harry-Carrie meeting or what, you know? And they explained. They asked the government, they wanted to lay up 20% of their workforce. And, excuse me, the government first approved.

Then the socialistic government comes back. Oh, gee, it's not fair for you to pick and choose. You should make that offer to everybody to make it fair. What happens? you know you can get a job right across the street. You take the $150,000 and you leave. They got stuck with the very people they were trying to get rid of who stayed because they didn't think they could ever get another job.

They resigned because they said, this company is going to go bankrupt, and if I am on the board, I'll never be able to get a job again. That's it. I met with a board member, of the IMF. I explained this situation. They said, yes, the same exact thing happened in Greece. I mean, it's human nature. I mean, this idea of equality, fairness, you know, this is nonsense.

It's complete nonsense. We're equal as far as rights are concerned. But, you know, everybody's different. You know, it, you know, it's just, you know, like I've said, you know, you don't want to pay me, you know, $30 million to throw a football, you know. Everybody's different. And what they earn is based upon supply and demand. You know, aren't that many people that can do brain surgery, so you're going to pay more. But everybody can sweep a floor. you know it's just it gets frustrating for me

from the standpoint that I get called into virtually every one of these crises gee can you fix it you know you blew it up I told you not to do this they just do it all the time and then you change

the crew you know so it flips to a new government and then they go oh we could Try that. And nobody ever asked, has this been done before? Did it work? Simple question. Not one time in any government, do they ask that? Markets blow up. They create this, you know, investigations. And somebody stands up, do they ever ask the simple question? Has this ever been tested before? Did it work? Nobody ever asked that question. We got some of the supposed to be the smartest people in government. From my perspective, sorry, you know, they're naive, they're stupid, and they're running on egos. That's it.

They don't understand. I mean, look at Trudeau. I mean, it's just, he's following the directions from Klaus Schwab and academic. Oh, wouldn't it be nice if everybody earned the same thing? Oh, nothing. He's, I've met Schwab. He actually has a bust of Lenin on it, on the shelf in his office. I mean, come on.

These ideas have been tried so many times and they fail. You know, human nature, when, look, what Marx was really about, boil it down. What was he trying to accomplish? ending the business cycle. Oh, there's a boom and then there's a bust. Oh, gee. And the person that lost some money goes,

oh, fix this, so I never lose it again. Sorry, this is part of the business cycle. You bought the high this time? Maybe the next time you'll sell the high, because you learn from your mistakes. Government never does. So what was Marx? What did all these socialists actually trying to do?

They're trying to eliminate the business cycle. In order to do that, what happens? You have to eradicate human nature. We've got to be drones. All went the same, all walk the same, all think the same. It doesn't work. I don't care how many times you try it, it's not going to work. What part of the cycle are we at, Martin?

Right? If it's the business cycle of boom and bust, what part of the cycle we at? Well, we're basically right now, it turned, down from May of 2024. We're going into a recessionary period into 2028. Then there'll be a little bit of a boom, another bust again. And then this whole thing is coming to a head by 2032. You know, look, we're going to end up with a new form of government. Republicans are the world's worst. Why? You can't bribe a dictator. You can't bribe a monarchy. You can bribe a republic because everybody's for sale. All right. I think even AOC has finally come out and said,

all the Democrats are trading on inside information. I mean, come on. This is what it is. you know and I mean look at Biden I mean issuing a pardon to his entire family about what 15 minutes before Trump was signed in you know sworn in yeah oh they didn't do anything wrong no I'm sorry you know they they're it's been nothing but money laundering coming out of out of you know, Ukraine. I mean, you can even Google it back in 9-11. Curiously, the plane that hit the Pentagon may have been steered into it remotely. Why? Because it just so happened to hit the room out of the whole building. It hit the room where the records were, where the day before Rumsfeld said, oh, this is horrible. There's almost

$3 trillion missing from the budget. Where did it go? We're going to launch an investigation. Oh, sorry, the plane hit that. It's all gone. Look, I don't know. I mean, I've just never seen

a republic that's ever been worth it's wild. That's why Caesar crossed the Rubicon. You know, unfortunately, a lot of the history they report Cicero, who is one of the olgarks, all right? You know, all the Caesar's a dictator. Look, when Caesar crossed the Rubicon and he went to Rome, every city cheered and they opened their gates. It was the Senate that fled to Asia.

It looked like the people supported Caesar, not the corrupt senators. Why? Because there was a debt crisis. And back then, the debt crisis, most of the senators were the money lenders. You couldn't pay. It was serious. Let's say you borrowed $100,000 for your house. It's now down to $20,000. You can't just walk away from the debt. Okay, fine, it's yours. No, no, no. It's worth $20,000. You still owe me $100,000. I'll take the house. I'll sell it. you still owe me the $100,000. If you can't pay, they took your children and sold them into slavery. It was a little bit different. So when Caesar crossed the Rubicon, everybody cheered.

I mean, you can even look it up. Mark Anthony bought Pompey's estate because he thought Caesar was going to eradicate all debts. They thought it was going to get it for free. I mean, this is, you know, republics, this is the way. way that it is. You know, it's always that way. They're just up for sale. And good luck. I mean, the deep state, just try writing to and complain about some of this to like a congressman. They all end up with the same staff. You may have just elected somebody else. The staff, the staff are there okay fine they have experience so they keep them that's the deep state

all right write a letter to a congressperson say this is wrong blah blah blah whatever you want to say it will never get to them unless the the person the deep state bureaucrat agrees with you doesn't agree with you thanks a lot goes in the bin this is washington i took my son-in-law i've said this stuff to capitol hill with me he said he wanted to see i said you sure you want to see what i see yeah yeah yeah okay i talk them we were in meetings all day long walked out first thing craig says to me says oh my god they don't know anything i said i told you just because they're a senator or a congressman doesn't mean they have any experience in doing whatever it has to do with anything it's certainly not the economy um you know you keep talking

i i say this every time we chat when you bring up 2032 right that's i heard this back in 2020 that was the first time i'd heard martin talk folks if you're new to the show and i'm like okay and every time you bring it up, I'm like, okay, well, we're 20, 25, we're seven years away. Like, what the heck has to happen in the next seven years? Because what I see happening is a whole bunch of, I guess, populist type leaders getting, you know, getting elected. I see, you know, and people, I mean, they literally shot Trump, but I mean, he's now the president of the United States. You look here in Canada and you see what looks to be, you know, everybody's worried, you know, about Kearney, right? Him winning the liberal.

leadership race and him being a globalist and all of a sudden he becomes the power and is there ways he can win it or find ways to take over government if we're in war or what have you and stay in power because there's a whole bunch of things being floated around. I'm like, well, if that happens, that scenario, I feel like then Martin's unrest model points to 2032 if we're having a whole bunch of different conversations. I'm like, that would align with that. But what I, what I see is Pierre Poliyev getting in. And now you have Pierre and you have Donald and you have other leaders around the world. I mean, Malay just went and tore a strip off the weft.

Like, I see that happening over the next stretch. And I go, how the heck does that lead into 2032 of like the Republic disappearing and things like that? Are they going to dismantle it? Or, you know, you've just written a thing on Europe preparing to invade Russia, which I don't know how I missed that. I read and I'm like, and I thought, I know Trump didn't end at day one, but certainly the talks are happening. I guess the 2032, I just spitballed a whole bunch of things at you, Martin. I'm like, in the next seven years, I mean, I guess it only needs to be one big event that happens that that spirals us towards the day or the year you've been talking about. I just don't see it adding to that right now.

What am I missing? what you're missing is the fact that you're seeing everybody around the world shifting all right in Germany AFD and they're actually worried that they're going to win they're in Canada Trudeau has to resign the Democrats over here in the states they've staged these criminal you know charges against Trump oh he'll be a criminal nobody will vote for them this is what they do all right it's so corrupt all right and they don't talk to anybody else but themselves they all pat themselves on the back yeah that's a great idea all right

well imprison them don't you realize if you did that that's best deal day all right i mean people are fed up with governments everywhere why did trump win because basically Basically, he wasn't one of them. Why did they hate him so much? Because he wasn't one of them. They also didn't like RFK. All right? I told them, look, from the very beginning,

I said, they're not going to allow anybody on the ticket to challenge Biden. Oh, come on. I'm telling you, this is what's coming down. All right. And that happened. All right? wouldn't let them on the ballot. Then he had some staff, I think, oh, with experience, you know, that's a deep state shit.

All right. Oh, you can win as an independent. No way. Computers, you don't have a shot in hell. All right. Finally, when they took him off of the New York ballot as an independent, then I think, I think he saw the light and joined with Trump. All right.

But and mainly he joined with Trump because he was anti-war and Trump was supposed to be anti-war. But, you know, this is what's happening. Look at what the Democrats did. It was they denied the people even a right to have a, to choose who would be the candidate. You know, Biden stayed in. Then he's, he's forced out, and he just hands it to Camilla. That's it.

She didn't even, she got the same amount of delegates that I did, you know, in the 2020 election. Zero. You know, it's, it's, they, they just believe their own shit. And that's, I'm being blunt, but that's it. But isn't that is, but isn't the result that Trump, got in isn't it i mean we're seeing the same story play out across the world you mentioning germany is a perfect example here in canada they're they're positioning pierre polyev in the right and the right of uh conservativeism as as i don't know what was the latest

one i saw something to do with the rise of something resembling nazis and and they're they're positioning in a certain way i just don't think anybody's listening to it anymore i don't think anybody cares i i see the polls and and people i've been in several discussions here in Canada about, you know, like, um, whether Pierre is the right leader or not. And then whether or not the liberals can find a way to squeak out of way. I'm like, I look at the liberals the same way I looked at the Democrats here,

at least from, from where I sit. I'm like, there's just no way. Nobody believes anything anymore. Nobody believes what the media is trying to portray. Um, Pierre's done, you know, you could argue an excellent job of navigating rough waters. Some people wish he was more like Trump and spoke. directly the issues well before it was politically correct to do so, but that's what we get on

this side. Everybody waits to see which way the wind's going to blow. And I see it happening elsewhere around the world. All the governments are trying and all the people are trying to stifle the people, but the people seem to be winning. Or am I wrong in that part? No, but the people are also divided. All right. Washington Post, oh, Trump did a flurry of executive order. There wasn't a single executive order that they agreed with. Nothing. Washington, you know, I mean, the economist, oh, he's a commander in chief in lies. The Guardian absolutely, totally anti-Trump, all right. They can't say a nice thing about any executive order, period. I mean, it's a, Oh, you're throwing all these people?

That's horrible. All right. Okay, fine. You know, the FBI's even admitted they've allowed in over a thousand terrorists. Oh, but we're throwing them out. That's bad. I don't know. I mean, I've got friends in Germany that won't even allow their 13-year-old daughter to walk two blocks to a bus station anymore.

I mean, you can even see. and there was a thousand girls that were raped in Germany on New Year's Eve a couple years ago. What did the government do? Don't call it rape, say assault. I mean, it's never about the people. It's always about them. How do I retain power? That's what's coming to an end.

All right. Do we get, I would like to see it that we, moved more towards a direct democracy, a little bit more like Switzerland, per se. Do we go to war with Russia? Yes or no? Let the people decide. Not a bunch of bureaucrats are going to fill their pockets with, you know, spare money. Nobody can track. I think we've gotten to the point where it's just government, is never tells the truth about anything. So can I say this then, Martin, why, I mean, obviously I can say it, but like, would you agree with this then what you're pointing to is no matter who's elected, the rise of Trump, the rise of anyone else across the planet, because that's what you're seeing, this distrust in government, they're going to elect who they want.

But then they're going to see these people do the same things the previous governments were doing in that they're going to make decisions. that don't, you know, align with what they were their mandate to be elected and everything else were. And eventually, even the people that you believe are the best politicians are going to fall into the same pitfalls of government. And that is going to erode it even more. Because the right person, the one that got, like, is that what you're pointing to? Pretty much. I mean, look, I had gone to dinner at Mar-Largo back in March of 20th. when Trump was president. That's when he at least impressed me.

He said that he wanted to remove the troops from Afghanistan, but it was the reason why. He said he was tired of writing letters to their family. Your son died for a garden country. And he said, what are we doing there? They've been fighting over borders for a thousand years. What difference are we going to make? He was the first head of state that I, ever heard even question about the people to die on the battlefield. The rest of them, they

treated it as collateral damage. We just have to win. This is like a football game. However, that said, what I'm disappointed in Trump in? He appointed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. I've had contacts with him. He's a neocon. I've been told that was a compromise to the neocons. I am concerned about that. Fine. He rejected Bolton and the rest of them. I mean, John Bolton would invade Canada to get two Russians.

You know, I mean, that's just, these people are evil, absolutely evil. But so I am not a hundred percent, you know, guaranteed that, you know, Trump is going to be this wonderful thing from, you know, panacea to help us. I mean, I will write to him about lowering the dollar, you'll cause a crash. Will they do it? We'll see. I don't know. I usually get called in after the fact and said, gee, can you fix it? But I think you're looking at the division of the press does not seem to be relenting. I mean, just look at the Guardian, the Economist, the New York Times, the Washington Post,

It's still a hate fest. And you have these other people that just, you know, are kind of brain dead. They will always listen to whatever a Democrat says without even listening to what it says. Oh, he's a Democrat. I got to vote for him. My father was a Democrat, whatever. So the countries are still very much divided. And that's part of the problem going into 2032.

Schwab, I believe, has been basically whatever we do, he seems to do. We started our World Economic Conference, 1985. He started his first Davos event in 1987, all the way up. I mean, Marcus Vetter did the movie on me, the forecaster. He was brought in to do the movie on him, The Forum. Our 2032 is his great reset. He's just trying to push it in his direction of authoritarianism. Look, the whole thing's going to collapse, and that's when we don't.

don't trust government, we have to redesign it. Trump's first term, he talked about term limits. Absolutely critical. Why? Because you have to stop these career politicians. I wrote a post a little ways back maybe a couple of weeks ago about how the staff surrounding these politicians are the deep state, and you can't get through to them.

All right. One politician wrote, and I published his response. When he got there, all he heard was staff recommends. And he basically said, what are we doing here? The staff basically is running the government. It's the tail wagging the dog. Read what I wrote. Actually, I didn't write it.

He did. This is reality. We have to really clean house. It's not just the politicians, it's the bureaucrats. They're there to protect themselves. We will be in World War III. The greatest threat to civilization is NATO. And you have to understand this about government.

once you create an agency they will fight tooth and nail to retain their power all right i've seen the internal stuff uh when the money was going to climate change nato was upset how do we remain relevant quote unquote how do they remain relevant they have to promote war oh if you don't give us Putin's going to take all of Europe. You're all going to be dead. You better give us more money, blah, blah, blah. All right. What are they saying? Oh, if Ukraine falls, he'll take the rest of Europe. Russia is not interested in taking all of Europe, period. Not the Russian people. American people are not interested in occupying Russia. This is all political elite bullshit. All right. We started the Ukrainian war, not Putin.

Just look at the timeline and the facts. You can even go with the daily caller the day before, Zelensky stands up and says, we're going to rearm Ukraine with nuclear weapons. There's the front page news in London. All right. Then the Washington Post found out he knew when Putin was going to invade. They question him. Why didn't you warn your people? His response? Google it. It would have

cost me $7 billion. People would have taken the money and fled the country if I told them we were going to be invaded. He is, I'm telling you, I talk to people. Ukrainians. He has made himself a dictator. He's eliminated all elections so he can't be overthrown. And what I hear from them is that if he was on fire, they wouldn't urinate on him to put him, you know, until he was dead. He's cost more than a million lives. He had a peace deal. Who hopped on a plane? Boris Johnson from London. You're not allowed to have peace. We want war. That made the front page of the U.S. Ukrainian proffta. Ukraine and our press will not tell the truth.

You mentioned, you mentioned Martin, and I don't want to put words in your mouth, just I want to make sure I get it right. You mentioned something along the lines of Trump, maybe not being anti-war. One of the things that had stuck out to me about Trump in this election was that he was going to end the war day one, which obviously everybody thinks is, I don't know if everybody believe that. I didn't believe, I just knew it would be a signal change of like, he's going to try and end the war. But you said he might be. What do you mean by that with Trump? Like, are you saying that it's a little more complicated with war and Trump? Yes. He just did a post on true social

and threatened Putin with terrorists. If he doesn't, he doesn't. come to the table. You're not dealing with Panama. This is not Greenland. All right. When you do that, all right, and the reason he did it is because of the

neocon basically propaganda. Oh, Russia's weak. They're losing the war. Blah, blah, blah. It's all we ever hear. So Trump said their economy is horrible. It's on the verge of collapsing.

So he thinks he's in a power position. I will put tariffs on you unless you come to the table and do what I tell you. Guess what? Not going to happen. All right. You just insulted Putin. It was a slap against, across his face. The danger here is that Russia has its neocons.

All right. Every country does. You remove Putin and you got a neocon coming. All right. Just look at what all the other guys say. Oh, we can nuke Brussels. We can nuke this. We can nuke.

That's all you ever hear from those guys. You remove Putin. It's on. And I'm telling you, Trump made a huge mistake with that. I hope Putin will still meet with him. But you've got to understand it from the Russian side. If he does, and even remotely agrees to anything that Trump now says, it makes him look weak at home.

Time for overthrow. All right, we have to understand how politics works. You know, if you want to say something like that, you do it privately. You don't make it public. When you make it public, now he's got to get his backup because if he doesn't, he's going to have a, you know, a bunch of people with knives ready to stab him 23 times like Caesar. So these things are complicated. All right, but you have to understand every country.

will act in its own self-interest. All right. So I am concerned that that was a stupid mistake by Trump. And his nonsense with tariffs, my computer is already showing that Europe's going into a depression. The German economy, because they have embraced all this non-suitary, with climate change and net zero and all this and then there are I find US blew up Nord Stream 1 there is Nord Stream 2 Germany has voluntarily turned it off why oh we have to put these sanctions on against Russia okay so let me see

We're doing this to hurt Russia, to hurt their economy, to force them to the table. What is the consequence? You're also destroying the European economy. Germany was the bulwark of the strongest economy. It is shrinking. It has shrunk. We're not just talking about recession. We're talking about the economy has actually shrank by three. percent already. You cut off all its energy. All right. Complete nonsense. You think you're hurting Russia. Very nice. It can sell us its gas and everything else to China. So what are you doing?

You're committing suicide. This is economic suicide. Russia is not going to be collapsing. It's Europe that's going to collapse. And this shit. It's been going on for a long time. You know, they put sanctions on, UN even sanctioned German companies for supplying pipe to Russia so they could create the pipelines. This goes back to the 50s, all right? This whole theory has always been, let's stop Russia from their selling energy. Obama went to go into Syria.

Why? because there was going to be a pipeline from Qatar to Europe to circumvent Russia. Syria said no. All of a sudden, Obama wanted to go into Syria. Oh, they're gassing their people. They're doing this. They're horrible. No, it's all BS again.

It was about a pipeline from Qatar. They never tell the truth. Okay. It blew up Nord Stream. check this out U.S. taxpayers paying for a pipeline so they couldn't get it through Syria

from Nigeria all the way through Africa to get up to Europe what happened? There was a coup in Niger who hopped on the plane

to try and keep the pipeline going Victoria Newland all right This is always about undermining Russia. You can Google, it's on YouTube, McNamara. He apologized before he died. There's a video.

He's the neoconda took us in the Vietnam. 58,000 Americans died. All right, for that. How many millions Vietnamese? What did he say? Well, we thought Russia was behind it. We were wrong. It was just a civil war.

Very nice. They've never told the truth about a single war yet. Weapons of mass destruction. Never existed. I mean, so this is what 2032 is about, I think. It's just government has lost all credibility on absolutely every level. And Trump wants to try and get. term limits through. What will happen? I can tell you the only way they would possibly sign it

is that it doesn't apply to anybody that's there now. Next crew, fine. Me? No, I'm not going to give up my job for that. Look, NATO needs war. That's why Google you'll see. They were trying to raise $100 billion. to keep the war going if Trump won. And they called it to Trump proof the war. They need this war against Russia. Because we're looking at a sovereign debt crisis that may not even be able to, you know, to avoid by 2026.

Europe is far worse than North America. Look, they went to negative interest rates in 2014. Then they had to start raising interest rates. Pension funds by law have to buy government debt and banks. They losing a fortune on that stuff. All right. When they were forming the euro, they came to me. I met with them, too.

I said, this is how you create a currency. They were saying, oh, everybody's going to pay the same interest rate. All this nonsense. I said, you're lying. It's not going to work. All right? You have to consolidate the debt. If you want to compete with the dollar, you've got to consolidate the debt.

I was in the middle of all that. I can tell you what happened. Hermit Cole, you know, from Germany, did not allow the German people to vote on joining the Euro. And he admitted before he died, if he did, he would have lost seven to three. So to take Germany in as a dictator, and he admitted that he was a dictator,

he insisted no consolidation of the debt, because the Germans would think that they were paying off the debts for Greece in Italy. So everybody retained their debt. Look, as a trader, I warn them. All you're going to do is shift the volatility from the currency markets to the bond markets. That's what's happened. You want to, you know, you're, you're bearish on France, you short their bonds, you buy the bonds out of Germany.

The peripheral spreads are all over the place. That's why the euro can't come. compete with a dollar. If I'm a big fund manager, I pick up the phone, buy me $10 billion of U.S. Treasuries. That's it. With Europe, oh, let's see,

do I want Germany? Do I win Italy? Do I want France? I still going to make the same decisions. You can't buy just Eurobonds. Martin, what do you think of, there's this conversation going on right now. Daniel Smith, or Premier Smith, has been down talking to Trump

and a ton of Americans, right, with this pending tariff and trying to find ways, you know, for essentially her province, Alberta, to get out from under it or find ways around it, et cetera. And that's led to a lot of conversations now because she wasn't at the meeting with the prime minister and the other premiers. And, you know, it's kind of excluded Alberta from they keep seeing Team Canada, which is, which is interesting to me. But regardless, when you look at Alberta and you just talked about how.

Germany made a decision to basically go into this and not do the things and not involve the people. And now you're sitting where you're sitting. When you look at Alberta, do you think Alberta could leave Canada? Because there's talk of, you know, is it growing? I don't know. I feel like it's been there, but maybe it's growing more of the conversation. Could it leave Canada and be its own country per se or sovereign nation within a country? I don't even, you know, you get what I'm trying to allude to and be successful of that,

or is that just a terrible idea? No. Look, Alberta probably should leave, all right? The problem with all federalized governments, they think they have this power to impose, one size fits all. And you saw it in the U.S. election. There was somebody there in one of the Camilla rallies, and he's talked about abortion and, you know,

violating, you know, thou shalt not kill. And her response was, you're at the wrong rally. This is what I mean. they think that they get to become president. Now they're going to dictate to everybody else on the other side. You've got to give up your religion. We don't care about the Bible Belt. You're people all crazy.

You're going to do it, as I say. This is not civilization. It's not democracy. But this is what the problem has become. Trudeau did the same thing. Oh, well, Schwab wants us to reduce all this energy and climate change. And then Greta came over and she's this 16-year-old expert on climate change. You met with her.

All right. Who paid her way to go over there to Alberta? Who paid for that? All right. The 16-year-old flew over? Come on. I can tell you, because Marcus, was doing the film on the forum.

And Greta was there reading these little scripts. They were written by Morgan, basically, the Greenpeace head. She even told Marcus, oh, because she saw him filming, oh, please don't

put that in the film. All right. She's a 16-year-old girl that just basically was like Putin. I mean, like Biden. Just here, read this. Okay. Oh, see, she's, she's horribly offended, you know, this is all just nonsense. And so you end up with this centralized idea, and it becomes dictatorial. Therefore, it no longer works. The difference between Lenin and Stalin was

day. Yes, Lenin was okay, communist. However, his idea was to basically follow the United States, that all the republics would retain their sovereignty. All right. He even wrote a letter, do not let Stalin secede me. It's widely believed in Russia that Stalin poisoned him and his wife. All right. Stalin then sees his power. What did he do? No more independent sovereignty.

Everything's here in Moscow. All right. He's the one that basically really created the Soviet Union per se. A dictatorial, threatening power, etc. This is what's wrong with federalized governments everywhere. All right. Republicans come in, okay. This is the way it's going to be. Democrats come in, no, we're going to throw all that out. We're going to move this way. It's not one size fits all. All right. The United States was set up to retain the sovereignty of the states. Like the abortion issue, the Supreme Court was correct. Throw it back to the states. You can't make this. dictatorial power.

So Alberta leaving, well, it probably should when you're going to have a centralized government saying, well, we're following Klaus Schwab and you have to lay off all these people and stop this energy nonsense. When that's, you know, a huge part of your economy there. I can tell you back before when you had, back in the 18th. 80s and they were raising interest rates to fight inflation. They were putting farmers and energy in the West out of business because, oh, there was, you know, real estate boom in Toronto.

One size does not fit all. When the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, why do we have all these branches? It's because there were regional capital flows and they understood that. In 1906, San Francisco earthquake, the insurance companies were on the east coast, so the money flew from the east coast to the west coast. There were shortages of cash in New York and then you ended up with bank failures. Panic in 1907. So when they created the Federal Reserve, it was a

brilliant system. Why? They had all these branches and every branch was independent. You can Google up some of the old newspapers and even, you know, 27 and all. You see the different interest rates in different regions. Why? Because if there was a shortage of cash in one region, just take Canada, for example. If you had a centralized local branch in Alberta and there was shortages of cash in Alberta, you would raise your rates maybe at one point above that of Toronto. Money would then be attracted to Alberta, even out things. All right, that was the idea. When the Fed was created, all right, why I say it was brilliant? Because the stimulus, the economy, it was to buy corporate paper, not government. So that was the real meaning of the lender

of last resort. If banks were in trouble and they didn't want to lend more money out, all right? A corporate could issue 30-day 90-day paper. The Fed would buy it. They didn't then have to lay off workers. All right. So what happened? World War I comes. Government now has to issue a lot of debt. They instruct the Federal Reserve, no, you're not going to buy private debt anymore. You're going to buy hours. Do they ever put it back? No, because the next team comes in. They think it's the same thing, no big deal. They don't put anything back. Roosevelt comes in. What did he do? Banking Act 1935. He usurps all the power like Stalin into Washington. So all the branches, they lost their independence. One interest rate fits all. All right.

So the central bank, look, why are they in trouble? Keynesian economics came into depression. All right. Gee, if we raise interest rates, we'll stop the speculation. Lower interest rates will stimulate investment. Government had a balanced budget. Now the government is the biggest borrower in the room. Why is Powell suddenly realizing he's got a problem? He raised interest rates to fight inflation. It didn't work. Why? U.S. The government still basically borrows. The interest expenditures went up through a trillion dollars. No politician is going to say, oh, gee, the central bank raised interest rates, they want us to spend less. Never going to happen.

All right. So the central bank's been stripped of its ability to even manage an economy. Keynesian economics is dead. It doesn't work. Central banks are on their own. So centralized government, it's become dictatorial. All right. It's no longer about the people, about the country, or anything.

It's about, I got to win the next election. That's it. Self-interest, they're going to do whatever they need to do. So should Alberta, leave if you're talking about centralized power and you have somebody like trudeau you're we have to save the planet so fire everybody you have we're shutting down oil you really think you should do that all right there's absolutely zero evidence that fossil fuels have changed the planet period All right.

Universal University of Arizona did study. The tropical bell has a cycle to it. It's moved 800 miles just, you know, in the last few hundred years. There were cave drawings, you know, showing Saudi Arabian desert. It was all lush green animals all over the place. What happened? The tropical belt moves up and down. I hate to tell you, and he's been doing this for a long time,

long before, you know, SUVs were around. You read Cicero. He was talking about, you know, the pollution in Rome. Burning wood. That's also CO2. Sorry about that. All right. First clean water act.

Emperor Justinian, I think it was 536 AD. all right this stuff has been going on for a long time you know we've had ice ages warming periods it's part of the climate you know these people think oh it's supposed to be the same temperature every day forever will always sun you know the sun will always be out it's not going to rain what are they trying to create this is another Marxist you know fictional world or something I don't know. I mean, they're not satisfied. I mean, down here in Florida, we get red tides once in a while in the Gulf of Mexico, now Gulf of America. I moved, but I didn't really realize it. But, I'll vote for me and I'll end red tide. It's all coming from farmers and chemicals that they use.

This is what they say. They ran for election down here. I just Googled it. First, First Red Tide reported 1642 by the Spanish long before there was farmers around or chemicals or anything else. I mean, something happens and we have to cause it. I don't know. I mean, look, you had a girl in Paris take a tomato soup and throw it on the Mona Lisa. Oh, because it's an oil painting. Honey, that's linseed oil. it's not crude oil, all right?

I mean, I mean, and this is what you've created. You created people that do not understand climate or anything. And, oh, it's crude oil, it's the evil thing, whatever. You know, well, honey, here's a bike. Give up your car. Martin, we always appreciate you having on this side. I'm looking forward to finally getting to shake your hand in May. if people want to buy tickets they can.

Cornerstone Forum, May 10th in Calgary, Alberta. Martin Armstrong is going to be leading us off. And when we look into the future, one of the things that we try and do is try and navigate it, you know, try and navigate all the different things that are going on. It's why I'll enjoy having you on the show. It's why I've been all over here to come to the Cornerstone Forum. Either way, thanks for giving us some time today.

Appreciate it and look forward to our next chat. Well, it's always a pleasure. You know, it's, I get to also, you know, release some frustration in dealing with all these governments all the time. You know, it's people think, you know, advise the government, yeah, fine. Do they ever actually do what you tell them? That's the other question. They don't ask. Thanks again, Martin.

Oh, thank you. Have a good time.