Shaun Newman Podcast - #878 - Tom Luongo & Alex Krainer

Episode Date: June 30, 2025

We discuss USA/Iran, Russia/Ukraine and the ants in the jar. Tom Luongo is a former research chemist, amateur dairy goat farmer, libertarian, and economist whose work can be found on Zero Hedge and Newsmax Media. He hosts the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Podcast.Alex Krainer is a Croatian national, former hedge fund manager, author and contributing editor at Zero Hedge. To watch the Full Cornerstone Forum: https://open.substack.com/pub/shaunnewmanpodcastGet your voice heard: Text Shaun 587-217-8500Silver Gold Bull Links:Website: https://silvergoldbull.ca/Email: [e-mail] Grahame: [phone]Bow Valley Credit UnionWebsite: www.BowValleycu.comEmail: [e-mail] Use the code “SNP” on all ordersProphet River Links:Website: store.prophetriver.com/Email: [e-mail]

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before you watch today or as you're watching that, you know, if you're on Spotify, Apple, YouTube Rumble X, make sure to subscribe, make sure to leave a review, make sure to hit the retweet button, make sure to just share it if you're enjoying it. And it's the month here while I'm off on holidays. So there's no Tuesday episodes for the month of July. And Fridays, we have a guest co-host with twos and then Thursdays or throwback Thursdays. So you can shoot me a text. This will be the month where if you don't hear back for me for some time, it's just because I'm spending time with the wife and kids and look forward to being back fully here in August. Either way, let's get on to that tail of the tape. The first is a former research chemist, amateur dairy goat farmer,

libertarian, and economist whose work can be found on Zero Hedge and Newsmax Media. He hosts the Gold Goat Goats and Guns podcast. The second, a Croatian national former hedge fund manager and author and contributing editor at Zero Hedge. I'm talking about Tom Luongo and Alex Craneer. So buckle up. Here we go. Welcome to the Sean Newman podcast. A ton of people have been waiting for this, Tom, Alex,

because I announced it like, I don't know, two weeks ago, and then we had scheduling conflicts, and then me and Tom talked about it, and then it was supposed to be again, and then we had scheduling conflicts. And so, gentlemen, it's finally great to have you back on the show. Thank you very much. Thank you for having us, Sean. And thank you to the ton of people. My estimate, unless they're overweight, that's about a dozen people now.

It is good to be here. And the man with owner of the driest wit in geopolitics, my friend Alex Crane. As always, and he never, and he never disappoints. So, yeah, no, it's been, it's good. I'm, I am glad we're a chance to do this. be honest with you. I'm actually glad that we didn't do this last week as we originally planned. I think that, you know, it's funny for a while now. I've been taking the pact of going, things happen. And then I'm not going to react to them for 48 to 72 hours. That's best. Yeah. And I'm really trying to do that as best I can. And, you know, and Alex and I already had one go around on this. in the middle of it and I'm actually kind of glad that we're now being able to do a second one now

not like we could have easily done three or four I mean everybody wanted the two of us on a show together and I'm like then do being able to do this now that we have at least a lull for the time being um and we can talk about NATO and all those other stuff that's going on because I think that's all important I think is actually good for all of us right good for all of our sanities though. Sure. I don't even know how to set this up because between us trying to talk about it and then it not happening like you have the U.S. bombing Iran, you have Iran bombing a U.S. base. You have like so many things going on. I was getting sent texts like, you know, I can just imagine you two. I was getting sent just text after text after text of different things that were going on. You two walk me through it because

that's what I lean on you for. I think it's what a lot of people lean on you for. I don't know where you want to start. And I don't know, you know, and then obviously getting to where you're at today. Alex, if you want to start, I'll be happy to reply to where you're going. I can go first. So basically my impression is that, well, I think it's not my impression. By now everybody understands it. I think now everybody knows that the whole show was choreographed, that it was fake.

And it was done for some purpose. So I had the impression that this broadly was how it was going to play out if there was going to be any attack by the United States on Iran because basically two lines of reasoning. The first one is that for the United States to go to war with Iran at this point is so irredeemably dumb and idiotic, that even if you go by the least charitable interpretation of Trump and his government, it's still too dumb to make any sense, right?

Because you have a risk of a catastrophic, uncontrollable Guagmire happening in the Middle East, with no chance of defeating Iran and losing maybe ships, maybe thousands of your Marines and sailors ending up in the bottom of the sea, and your 20-odd military base is getting, you know, Israel's, thousands of casualties, there's about 60,000 U.S. troops there.

And to gain what exactly What is the upside? I can't tell. To give Bibby Netanyahu a lease of life, another quarter, another month of political life. So I thought, no, this is too dumb. They're not going to attack, or if they attack, it's going to be fake. And then the other line of reasoning why I thought there's no way that the United States is going to war against Iran was because going to war against Iran would be the polar opposite of everything Trump explained as his policy positions, not just the last six months, going back to 2016.

So he's been very consistent wanting to roll back the U.S. Empire, wanted to extricate himself from all these misadventures in Afghanistan and Syria and Europe and everywhere, right? Right. Not wanting to be the military enforcement arm of the Western Empire. Not wanting to be the blaster in the British master blaster combo. Having a bit of a contempt for the Europeans, having a bit of a contempt for the neocons in the United States. And now all of a sudden he's their best friend, right? And he's carrying water exactly for the cohort that has put him through like eight years of wall-to-wall demonization, legal persecution, impeachment proceedings,

investigations, and all this. You know, so I thought that makes no sense whatsoever. And also, not to mention that, you know, the Iranians, you know, they just got their asses handed to them by the Houthis in the Red Sea. The United States just, well, just 2021 in August had to withdraw from Afghanistan after trying to subdue the Taliban for 21 years, for 20 years. And, you know, Iran is no Taliban and there are no Houthis, you know. So this wasn't going to go well. So anyway, I think that now it's quite obvious that they, you know, they called each other, they communicated. They said, hey, we're going to strike here. So the Iranians, you know, took their time to evacuate sensitive equipment and the stockpile of enriched uranium.

Then they made some holes in the sand. And then the Iranians called up the Americans, okay, we're going to launch a retaliatory attack. Are you guys ready? Did you evacuate everything? Did you, you know, wrap the piano in the dust sheets and everything? And then they launched a retaliatory strike that didn't do anything at all, right? And then everybody went back home, declared victory. And now the effect, the effect of all this is that because, you know, like if you,

if you listen to the rhetoric, it's like world wrestling. Wrestling Federation trash talk. And the war was the World Wrestling Federation War. You know, fake display of violence. Okay. So now the effect of it is that, you know, Bibim Netanyahu, who was desperate for a political boost, immediately jumped on this one,

thanked Trump profusely, made the big show show of like, oh, us and the Americans, we plan this together, we executed this together. Trump is my BFF, you know, we're like brothers. He's going to sacrifice the United States to defend Israel. And so look at all this. They like plastered portraits of Trump everywhere with like, thank you, Mr. President. Netanyahu cannot disown this now because he cannot face the Israeli public and his political enemy and say like, oops, looks like I've been duped by Trump. He has to own this now. And, you know,

to help him own this, the Israelis confirmed by the CIA, just said, yes, in fact, American attack obliterated the Iranian nuclear program. It is no more. So now the pretext is gone. Because the pretext for attack was Israeli nuclear program. That was the rationale that made it acceptable to go and bomb Iran. The actual objective was regime change, but you couldn't say that. So you had to say like, oh, you know, we can't have a, we can't let them have the nuclear program because these Iranians are so incredibly dangerous. They attack somebody every 300 years or so. And so with the pretext being gone, Israel has no cards left to play other than the Samson option.

And so on the account of the Samson options, I thought, okay, everybody is very worried about this because they're a danger not just to Iran. They're a danger to everybody. They're a danger to a danger to the whole region and to Europe and to U.S. interests in the region. And so I have a hunch, although I have no evidence for it whatsoever. Nobody said this. So there's no second or third source. But I have the impression that a few days before the Iranians attacked, sorry, a few days

before the Israelis attacked on Friday the 13th, we found out that the Israelis, that the Iranians were in possession of several times. terabytes of data about the Israeli nuclear program. Like everything about it. And I thought, huh, either the Iranians have a really, really capable intelligence service, which is probably the case anyway. Or they got this from Trump via Tulsi, right? Or from the Russians.

Remember, the Russians would have access to this information as well. But here's why I think that it was the Americans. Okay. Because, you know, when Witkoff returned from Iran or from Oman, thinking that he had a deal in his pocket and he said like, hey, guess what? The Iranians just agreed that they were going to limit their uranium enrichment work to 3.7 or whatever it is.

percent just for peaceful uses. And then he returned to the United States. And all of the neocons and these these Zionists wanted his head on the pike and Hegset's head on the pike because previously he had voted against attacking Iran. And so I think that people in the Trump team must have reached the conclusion, we cannot, you know, we cannot do this because, you know, like there's an unbridgeable gap between what the Iranians are willing to give and what the pro-Zionist cohort in the United States will accept. So I thought they must have gone to the Iranians, whatever, through Oman, through the Russians, through Swiss embassy.

And they must have said, look, we can't hold these people back. There's going to be an attack. The rhetoric is going to get really ugly for, couple of days. Please just hang with us. We're going to announce the attack so you can prepare. And just as a token of goodwill, here's a little something for you. And then they, you know, they hand them the disk or the files or whatever the medium was. And so now the Iranians know that Trump has serious intention of diffusing this war. He has no serious intention of waging war on Iran that there's going to have to be like a World Wrestling Federation match there,

where they're going to make a lot of noise, a lot of ugly trash talk, but all the violence is going to be, in fact, fake and choreographed. And then everybody goes back home. And so now let's see the effect. So yesterday Trump was being no, not yesterday, day before, I think, doesn't matter, on his way to the NATO summit in Warsaw. So he was saying, he was critical towards Israel, but not critical towards Iran. He was saying, like, hey, you know, like I said, you have 12 hours to unwind the war operations. And he says, the Israeli, in the first hour, they go and they load up everything they've got to bomb Iran. Iran.

And he said, I'm not happy with Israelis, which, you know, okay. But it's very, very highly unusual for a high level US politicians to even be balanced in how he speaks about Israel, let alone to be critical of Israel. And so that was interesting. And then on Air Force One, he was asked if he was going to. if he wanted to see a regime change in Iran. And he said, no, I don't. It would be very messy.

It would be a complete mess. I want them to do well. They are very capable tradesmen and businessmen. They got a lot of oil. We want to do business with them. We don't want to see a regime change. And then he was asked about whether he wants to increase sanctions on Iran, and they actually lifted some of the sanctions.

And he was like, no, I think that they need to be able to do business. They need to rebuild their country, blah, blah, blah. We're looking to reduce sanctions. And then Whitkoff gave an interview on that subject. And Whitkoff said two things, one of which I think was a lie. And he said, oh, we lifted the sanctions because that was the Iranian condition to stop the missile attacks against Israel. I don't think that was true. I think that he was just saying, well, you know, we had to lift the sanctions to stop Israel from suffering pain. Right. But then the

second thing he said about it, which I think is true probably, he said like we were sending, by lifting sanctions on Iran, we were sending a message to the Chinese. And the message is, we're ready to deal. We are open to strike deals. Because remember, we go back to January. And in January, Marco Rubio said, post-World War II global order is more than obsolete. It's been weaponized against the United States. And the new reality is multipolar integrations. And the United States is ready to embrace the multipolar integrations. The effect of this whole World Wrestling Federation circus between the United States and Israel and Iran is that the United States is now effectively embracing the multipolar integrations. Next week, they're talking to the Iranians

again, even though Trump said, I don't think we need to talk about the nuclear program at all. What's he talking about? He said, oh, well, we obliterated it. So there's no point talking about it, even though everybody knows that they didn't have laterated. He just doesn't give a shit. It's not important. That's not a, he just fake removed the pretext. Yeah, go, go, go. No, I was going to say, Alex, everything you just said works under the same, under the, under the rubric that the Americans actually did achieve some of their objectives as with the Iranian nuclear program.

It all still tracks because at a certain level, like our friend, why. Joaquin Forres made the point, multiple, you know, made the points while this was all happening, that Iran is acting like the guy who, like they always know, the guy who walks into the BMW dealership. I love this metaphor that he used. And it's loudly proclaiming, I am not buying a car while he stands there and like pause at the, at the M5 for two hours and keeps saying, I'm not interested in buying a car, hoping to get a deal out of the guy. And then eventually, you know, after two hours of the salesman, be like, yeah, dude, you're going to buy a car. He eventually signs on the dotted line and buys the car for whatever price the guy. Right. This was what he was using this over and over again while this was all happening.

And I'm like, so look, the truth is, is that you can make the argument. And I've been, and what I was doing during all of this while this was happening, I kept saying over and over again, what did I say? I want to tie in a lot of injuries. All right. I want both of them beaten up and move back to their respective corners so that the big powers can come in and go, look, this shit's over. We know that your pawns of vaster powers. We know this is what we understand and that this is that this is, this program is nothing more than a justification to keep the conflict going in perpetuity for the purposes of those that want to see. Asian integration from never happening, going all the way back to the whole Halper-McKinder argument and everything else.

You and I have talked about a thousand times. So I say to myself, why would, and this is why I've always been skeptical, after a while, I became very skeptical of a way Iran had played all this over the years, okay? And I honestly think that they were duped by fucking Obama and pushed by the neocons and the Israelis into their actions of resistance strategy post-Iran-Iraq war. because it makes perfect sense. They had no other benefactor. Russia was too weak.

China was still building. They were by themselves. What else would they do? It makes perfect sense that they were pushed into a ruinous, into a, not a ruinous, into a defensive strategy that would have, that would always lead us in effect here for the purposes of giving the fucking Brits or Davos, wherever you want to call them. I don't give a shit.

They're cookies. And then at the moment of crisis, the guy who was like, hey, this shit's bullshit. We're not doing this anymore. It's not in Russia's best interest to have a nuclear aspirational Iran. It's bad for trade. It's driving the Israelis crazy. It's driving the Americans crazy. It's not in China's best interest.

They want Belt and Road. Iran is the crossroads of both major trade routes that both and both. both geopolitical strategies of Russia and China. The Russians want trade routes that don't have to go through the Black Sea, who wants to bottle up the Russians behind the Black Sea, the British. Same thing with China. Use the American 7th Fleet, the bottle of the Chinese up behind the Straits of Malacca, and start wars.

And I mean, dude, I can, like, I guess it's been a half an hour now talking about what China's been doing to try and get outside the Straits of Malacca. what Belton Road really is all about. Going back to like 2012, 2011, like they were poking a fight between Singapore and Malaysia over water right, over water to Singapore. Malaysia owns the control over Singapore's water, for Christ's sake. Because of the, I mean, and then there's the,

I remember studying this when I was working with the guy over in Vietnam, back in like 2011, 2011, 2012, and whatnot. When the Chinese were trying to, were, trying to build the oil and gas pipeline from Myanmar at the Port of Kyokpil, I always probably pronounced that wrong, to Kunming, right, in Rakhine province in, in, in Myanmar, right? And why? Because there's a massive amount of oil and gas in the sea of Burma. And so what did the Chinese want? They wanted to build a port there, They wanted to have a gas pipeline there, and they wanted to turn that into a port.

Where is that? North of the Straits of Malacca, right? Why were they, why were the Chinese investing all this money at CPEC, the Chinese Pakistan Economic Corridor? Why? In order to get, in order to get ports and rail lines and everything else across Pakistan and into Iran so that they can get around that. And then they can shorten the distance that ships have to travel and be subject to the U.S. 7th

fleet and the whole, you know, the whole Leon Panetta, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, pivot to Asia, right? This is all part of the, this is all part of the frigging story. So after a while, I'm like, Iran's nuclear program threatens all of that. So the Chinese can't be happy with the strategy. The Russians can't be happy with the strategy. Who's the only one that's happy with this strategy? And then you had to be, and from my perspective, there's, completely neutral in this, completely neutral. Just like take all of my personal feelings, whether I think Iran's a defender and Israel is a belligerent, all of my personal feelings out and go, someone's working both sides of the frigging conflict here. Someone's back in the Israelis

to be belligerents and get the in Americans and using Americas, you know, and I can see it all from that perspective. And I'm like, and the Iranians, and I think there may be factions within Iran. I still believe this. I think it's mostly the IRGC, if you want my honest opinion, which is why Trump killed Soleimani, why the Israelis knocked out all of these these generals that night. And that may have been a precondition for Trump green lighting the Israeli attack. It's like there's a faction in Iran that was pursuing the strategy all the way to the end, this axis of resistance, nuclear deterrence posture. And I think that I've gotten the elder we've, the long we do this, Alex. And the older we get, the more I can argue very strongly because I know American

politics very well, that America's not a monolith. We've got three or four different factions, buying for control within New York. Well, you have to do the same thing in Britain, Israel, Iran, Russia, China, like there's all of these, none of these countries are monoliths. And they have people, they have both traitors and patriots, duking shit out domestically, while having to balance the geopolitical stage. So again, I'm trying to take a view of Iran and Israel and the United States and Russia and China, trying to take a balanced view of all of them. Okay. And, you know, because no one's the perfect villain, as I said before, no one's the perfect victim. No one's the perfect hero. Like, that's all bullshit in this, in this model. So we can have our own personal sympathies and I'm not

telling everybody, on anybody not to have your feelings, okay? I'm not saying. What I'm saying is, look at the things this way and then see what happened here because I can make a perfectly valid argument for the way events have played out as Alex described but with the added nuance of all these little things that I just brought up and go it could have this has easily been that but the truth of the matter is is that none of that actually in the end really matters because we got to where we are today which is the which is the potential for fucking both of them to stand the fuck down and now we can deal with the real problem, which was always my argument about how the grand, I could always see the end game of the grand bargain, get Israel and Iran to stand down, get Russia

and China to back away from the region and cleave and take away Davos's ability to swoop back in and start the whole conflict up over again. That's my definition of the grand bargain. How we got there or how we get there was never, I never had a clear picture of that because I didn't understand all the players, I could never understand all of the little factions and all the little nuances. So I think, I think in many ways, all I've been asking people to do is to just consider the other interpretations so that we can then, because if we do that, now we can start to figure out how we can really take out the, we can work on the next stage of this, which is the deal with fucking Europe, who are the instigators of all of this bullshit.

because I think the Russians and the Chinese are very happy about what's happened here. They, I'll give you one other thing that Trump said, ready? Hey, look, it's all over. Now China can buy oil from Iran without having to worry about it. And all the CCP agents are out there screaming, oh, look, the dollar is going to die. I'm like, I like Eric Young. He's a nice guy. He's a friend, he's a friend, but I know he's a CCP agent.

Like, I'm sorry. This is like, I like various people around the world. that I don't agree with because I like them personally. I think they're okay and I agree with them on some things and other things. But I can tell when they're when they're acting for somebody else. I mean, just at that point with watching this stuff play out and that's where I am. Like, and everybody and everybody, I believe in this whole 14, roughly what now, 14 days, a lot of people's real motivations and who they really work for and where their limitations are

have borne themselves out. And I'm good with that. We now have a lot more clarity than we used to. And I think that's important. Curious. When they say Iran's nuclear facilities have been obliterated, and everybody agrees to it. And then defense secretary Pete Hagseth comes out

and attacks everybody for trying to counteract. that saying they snuck everything away, what you two are pointing out is by everybody agreeing that it's obliterated, that they can no longer use that as a precursor to go into Iran. And pretexts for continuing the conflict. Yes. Which is the most important part. Because Israel's agreed, what you're saying is all the key players have all agreed that it's obliterated. And anyone who came out and said, wait a second, they attacked them vehemently

and said, no, it's obliterated. Look at all the people that have agreed that it's obliterated. Alex's point that Israel and that has to own this is the most salient point. Israel and in some ways I could I could I could feel that happening while this was all going on, but I was, you know, I mean, like we all had so much happening that you couldn't quite feel it. But I'm like, like, at the end of this, all I kept saying was if we take out Iran's nuclear program, Israel have no right to bitch about anything anymore. and now they have to act like a normal country.

And it now begins to open up the opportunity for everybody to finally look at Israel and go, okay, your behavior in Gaza unacceptable. This unacceptable, that unacceptable. I can tell you that here in the United States, we are ecstatic because Trump took care of the problem, even if we were gassolent into believing whatever the problem was, wasn't really, you know, ignore that from the American's perspective we got what we wanted the conflict is over we're

over fucking Israel here in the US like the younger generations here in the US are over this shit they're not on board with this at all and my argument's been for a while that this whole conflict has been a rapidly depreciating asset with the globalist and Trump saw that and saw

the opportunity to go you know what fuck it let's kill it let's kill it with fire and if we have And let's see how and let's see how what people are going to do after that. And I think he understood the leverage that he had in this situation perfectly. He has the political leverage at home. And all he had to do was give the, as I said in the beginning, I know I said this last week, whether I said it to you, Alex and you, Sean or not, I said, you know, at the end

of the day, I'm like, he's going to give the neocons everything they want and they're not going to be very happy about it. They got their bomb. They got their bombing of Iran. they got it they got what they wanted and they're not happy because they're not going to get the regime change they're not going to be able to install the British system reinstall another version

with the British system in Iran they're not going to be able to do any of that shit no multipolar integration is going to happen Central Asia is going to be able to come up out of the fucking 18th century because Iran is no longer the lynchpin to blowing open the entire fucking continent

wait wait wait wait wait wait you're going to stop you there why would Iran be the linchpin of blowing up the entire If the British got back into control and got their pets installed, then they could use that as the means by which to launch an entire another century's worth of attacks and setting the Jews and the Muslims and various sects of Muslim against each other and all this crap. But one of the things you brought up in your opening statements, Alex, which I appreciate, is the following. You brought up Afghanistan. I mean, us pulling out of Afghanistan, that was your key that we were never.

going to launch a ground invasion against Iran because that's the only place from which you could launch a ground invasion from Iran because the mountainous it's a lot less mountainous from coming attacking Iran from the east and attacking it from the west so I mean logistically speaking why do you think we went into Afghanistan 20 years ago the guys the that was in the plan yeah the the Brits were absolutely hysterical about this like when the United States pulled out of Afghanistan the the discussions in the United States were all like, oh, that was bungled. You know, the way it was done was bungled.

So, okay, fine. In the UK, the speeches in Parliament, they were like surreal. They were hysterical. They were practically foaming at the mouth. They were, I mean, they were pouring contempt at the United States like I've never seen before. He was, the guys were saying like, well, the United States, it's obvious that they are not ready to play their global role as they should. We had to drag them kicking and screaming into World War I. And we had to drag them into World War II.

And they only showed up at the very end. And, you know, like, they were really giving the game away. Like, we're like stirring the pot. The Americas just have to turn up when we, when we, we're really giving the game away. we say, you know? Right. And I was like, what is going on? You know, like, who are these people? Why are they so hysterical? And this is basically when I, when I started like really looking into the British role in global affairs. And it's insane. It's like the rabbit hole that never dies, that never comes to an end. And I've come to the conclusion that if you

were able to quarantine the British Foreign Office, MI6, SAS, the Special Forces. Their intelligence, yeah, MI6, right? And they're like this really insanely wide network of non-government organizations and charities that go around the world to do good in all of these resource-rich countries, I think that 99% of all problems in the world would just vanish overnight. Yeah, no, I agree with you, Alex. And it's funny, when I, when, when, I think you and I have been on a very similar arc of understanding, right? And we've, I think the, I think, you know, for our little corner of the world that we operate in, everyone has watched us go through that process, right? And they've gotten, they've helped. And we've, you know, we've helped them go along with it. Like, understand folks, we weren't birthed as great geopolitical analysts or if you think we are. We, all we're doing is going through the process of going, this didn't make sense. What's going on here? Ask questions. Do research. You know, make some intuitive leaps. Do. Do.

the thing and iterate. And we just keep iterating and iterating and iterating. That's all Alex and I have done since the first time he and I met when I, when I interviewed him to have to talk about his book about Bill Browder. And it literally comes back to that first time that Alex and I know, doesn't it? It really does, doesn't it, my friend? And, you know, we're, you know, and then, and our understanding of Bill Browder and the Magnitsky Act and the British perfidy and European and European colonialism was very, you know, was very rudimentary at that point. And I'll be happy to cop to that. Like, I don't have any problem. Like I'm just, as I always say, folks, we're all just doing our very best in real time to assess what's going on and try and go and try and, you know, backfill

what we always thought we knew. One of the thing, one of the, I was writing about this for this month's newsletter when I was putting, I had a hard time trying to put my editorial, which is always the last article in every newsletter together. And then when I sat finally, sat down to write it yesterday or it's Tuesday, which is part of the reason why I begged off on Tuesday as well, Sean, because I needed to get that done. Yeah, no. And I wrote about it. And I wrote, what I wrote about was, was realizing that when you're going through momentous events like this, you, when you review them in, in hindsight, they always look like a linear story, right? History looks like a linear story from one, one particular perspective. But the men who are actually doing,

making the decisions. No, no, no, it's not a linear story at all. And, you know, not at all. It's a series of reads and reacts if you're a hockey player, you know, of things that are happening in real time and they have and they react to things we don't know and things that are not necessarily true and all of it and their own personal biases. And they bring all of that to the table. Our read of history always brings our own personal biases to the table. And the thing we have to realize is that, you know, history isn't a story. The only thing we have from history is the parts of the stories that from each individual period and time that we bother to remember because we think there's a lesson there and everything else in effect gets lost. And I don't

think history is written by the winners as much as I believe that what we think we know about history is in the hands of the editors. And if we and if we, and if we, And so for years, I was angry with Truman for dropping the bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Years. Because in hindsight, it's a monstrous fucking act. I don't know why Truman did it. I can theorize. Maybe we, maybe he was that bloodthirsty.

Maybe it was as ungenerous as we think it was. Or maybe it was a message about what this, you know, it was the end of that particular story and it was the beginning of our current story and we just kind of go from there and what i hope that is happening here is that everybody having been brought to you know two minutes to midnight for lack of a better um lack of a better metaphor that we looked at we looked into the abyss and we go that's not what we want to do okay hey everybody why don't we choose to do something different i don't know if i'm summarizing this correct but feel free uh gentlemen to to uh fire holes isn't it? What I'm listening to you talk, I feel like everyone thought this was going to be the

quagmire, the Tinderbox that lit off World War III. Boom, here we go. US just flew in Iran. Iran comes and bombs something to the US. Israel is going to go on full out attack, and away we go. We're being pulled in. The US camp back away from the fact they did it. And what I'm hearing instead is it's done. We're going to have an opportunity. here where where this particular conflict is getting and i don't know if wrapped up is the right way to phrase it but it feels like that's what you're talking about and then that then it becomes okay so where because this one then i go so does that mean the focus is going all the way back to russia ukraine again yes it is good good question Sean because that's that's where i wanted to lead

this conversation next because that's obviously where things are going you can see it at the nato summit go ahead alice yeah so a few things i just have to push back against something you said tom just for karmic balance of the astrological um equilibrium fair enough basically you know you said there's no perfect villain in this story actually i think there is a perfect villain in this story and that's israel they are more than a perfect villain i mean they fucking kill at the very least 50,000 Palestinian civilians. And then we had the Lancet study, which said, oh, it's probably more between 200 and 250,000.

And then when you read into their methodology, you realized that was a very, very conservative number. That was at the very bottom of the estimate range. And now we had the New York Times saying that it's closer to 400,000 Palestinians. So that's like quarter of the population there. I mean, that's more than perfect villain. That's like villain with extra credit, you know, like. And of course, you know, we have to always keep in mind whose creation this is.

Yes. Because there's a more perfect villain behind that. You know, they've been smashing around and pulling triggers and killing babies. But the source of interest that created the situation to begin with, sits in the city of London. They created Israel. They laid the foundation for the creation of Israel. It wasn't in 1948. It was in like starting in 1870s that I know, or maybe even earlier. And they've done extensive preparations. The Balfour Declaration was kind of like, okay, now we have everything ready. Now we need it like an official cover. And then they create the Balfour Declaration.

And then, you know, the Jews are not really into it. They're like, you know, that's not how it's supposed to go. And then what happens? Somehow Hitler, who was also their creation, perpetrators the Holocaust. And then, you know, when the Soviets free people from these concentration camps, the British take them over. And they slammed them into different concentration camps.

Because all these Jews, they want to go to the United States. They want to go to Canada. They want to go to New Zealand. They don't want to go to the Middle East. They don't want to go to Palestine. So then the Brits say, right, well, you're going to have to stay here. But if you want to go to Palestine, then you're free to go. And so they get their agenda of, as the roundtable put it, populating the region with a patriotic stock, with a particularly patriotic stalks.

This is what Alfred Milner's roundtable, how they formulated it. So they created this. The Nagby in 1948. Yeah, again, these Jews were pulling triggers, but it was the Brits who were behind it. And today, it is still the Brits who are behind it. It's very clear that the current Trump administration are tired of this, but somebody is still, you know, pulling the levers.

And now we also know that Al Jolani is their creation as well, because, you know, it's the Turks are doing the operational work, but they're still being sponsored by the British state, by the MI6, by these various organizations like Intermediate, headed by Jonathan Powell, who used to be the chief of staff of Tony Blair. And he is the one who has recruited and groomed Al Jolani and Al Shibani, the foreign minister. And then you had Tony Blair at Davos interviewing Al Shibani. And, you know, like the whole thing is by now, so patently obvious that, yeah, you can easily, easily make out who the perfect villain is.

And I think that as far as Iran is concerned, you know, they've been there for 5,000 years. They didn't ask for this fight. They were asking to be left alone. I think they were fully in their right to make themselves a nuclear threshold state. And I don't think there's a single problem with that because they have a fatwa against acquiring a nuclear. weapon. Alex, you and I have covered. Let me finish.

I know. Okay. Let me finish. They brought themselves to the nuclear threshold state so that they have a choice if they're existential, if they're in an existential danger, that they can cross that threshold and avail themselves of a deterrent. That's where they want. Not because they want to start bombing left and right and launching nuclear missiles around

as we are given the impression. to and what's the problem with that doesn't north korea have a nuclear weapon did they did they use it against anybody doesn't pakistan have a nuclear weapon doesn't india have a nuclear weapon the fucking israel has a nuclear weapon so what's the problem with iran having a nuclear weapon why is that a red i know i know i understand that i have decided and this is me personally this is my personal opinion Okay, this is my personal position. I am over people threatening me with nuclear fire. But who's threatening with nuclear?

I'm going to look at that. I want the Israelis denuclearized, dude. I want the Pakistanis. Who is threatening nuclear? The only one that threatened nuclear fire is Israel. Nobody else. Nobody else. Did the Iranians ever threaten anybody with nuclear weapons?

The potential is. No, the answer is no, Tom. The answer is no. It's very easy. I do not want this. I do not want everybody. Again, you're not going to move me on this. You can have your opinion. I'm stating a fact.

You're stating conjecture. I am. I am. It is conjecture. I am conjecture. I am conjecture. I am not willing to allow that. I don't want any more of this.

I'm gone. So why? I don't want. Truman, I don't want another, I don't want another Truman to make a fucking statement. I don't want Trump to do any of this. I don't want, none of them do. Yeah, but the answer is not too relatively clear. So, Israel is a bad, but Iranians are also bad. The answer is not to relativize then.

Israel is bad, but Iranians equally as bad or just maybe slightly less bad. I didn't say equally as bad, dude. I said no one is, no one is perfect here. I'm sorry. I'm, we're going to disagree on this. And I hope we, I hope we can disagree on this. Okay, I don't think that this is what's important ultimately. I really don't.

What's important now is getting rid of the people who are pushing other people into that posture. That's what I'm trying to argue to figure out how to get us through. I don't want any more of this. I don't want Iran to feel like they need to get a nuclear weapon or North Korea or anybody else. But they already do. I don't want to. I don't want this. I do not want this to do.

continue. Yeah, but this is insane. Nobody wants this, Tom. I don't want it either. But the practical question, the practical problem is that you saw what happened to Gaddafi. He gave up his nuclear program. Boom, he got a buy and up his ass. And he's no longer.

And he's country today. Again, he's an open market for slaves. Right. And so our goal here is to, on to de neocon the Americans. It's to de neocon the fucking British. It's the, it's that is. the next that's what i'm that's what i'm focused on now i'm not focused on i'm not focused on i'm not okay fine and i and i hope that iran helps us with this but meanwhile iran is in israel's cross

hairs and israel does have nuclear weapons do you you have to put yourself in their shoes and ask yourself what would i do you can't put yourself in tom loongo's shoes and say what do i not once. Alex, I already said, I understand why the Iranians pursued the strategy that they pursued. I understand it. I don't have to like it. Okay? I don't. You can't make me like it. Okay. And I hope you respect that position. I can understand it, but I don't have to like it. And that's, we're going to leave it there. That's, that's it. We're going to leave it there. And I know you feel passionately about this and I, and you have to realize that that's the way I feel about it. And I think it's a very fair. What I'm focused on is getting rid of

the real villain, which you just laid out the case for very, very clearly and passionately and correctly. Dude, let's get rid of these fucking assholes that are starting the goddamn that are setting us all in motion because as far as I'm concerned, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, I'm not a particularly Christian dude, but I'm looking around going Satan's smiling. John McCain is smiling from fucking hell, and I don't want this anymore. And they're setting us against each other over this crap now. I want Iran to help us stop the whole fucking process. And I think the best way for Iran to stop the process is to do what Gaddafi did.

It's to listen to the Russians and the Americans and the Chinese, and we're going to take care of Israel. Well, that's what I think is coming next. Tom, I, you know, the way you stop attack on yourself is having a deterrent, right? Alex. I have made, you don't have a choice. Okay. So are you expecting now for the, for the Iranians to continue developing their nuclear weapons program? And for the Israelis to then six months from now turn right around and go, see, they rely on to us.

We need to go bomb them again. Because that's where your, that's where your argument is going. Yes, of course. Of course. Okay. I'll explain why. Then this war, then Sean, this war is not over. And it's going to restart six months from now.

Alex, Alex, finish your thought then. Well, you know, if I were Iran, how far can you trust the United States? Now you have to trust Russia. Now you have to trust Russia is what I'm getting. Well, if I were Iran, I wouldn't trust Russia. I wouldn't trust China. I wouldn't trust the United States. I would trust myself.

And I would seek to retain the nuclear threshold state because, you know, tomorrow they might assassinate Donald Trump. And then what happens? I don't know. They might assassinate J.D. Vance or they might steal another election and you might get a fourth Obama term behind Kamala Harris or some asshole like that, right? And then the United States is fully in the team. Wait, and what happens if Iran...

is what happens if the IRGC sidelines the mullahs and we wind up with a bunch of crazies in Iran. I don't consider it. I mean, I'm now making the argument. I'm now making the argument that if, as you are, that the Ayatollah issued the fatwa and that he was serious about it. And I do believe he's serious. I do believe they're serious about it. But there are factions within Iran that may be doing this for different reasons. And I think that not considering that out, that potential, this is why, why do you think Donald Trump went to North Korea?

It's not that complicated. It's not that complicated. It's, you know, you have North Korea as one example, and you have Libya as the other example. Libya gave up their nuclear program. Gaddafi got a ban up his ass as a thank you from the people he who he relied upon. North Korea said, fuck you all, we're going to get a nuclear weapon. They have one. Nobody's touching them. Nobody's daring to touch them. So who would you like to be if you had a choice?

Would you rather be Kim Jong-un or would you rather be a Gaddafi? Because ban it up up your ass is probably. If I took it to- I don't think the only reason that Gaddafi got a ban up his ass was his nuclear program. I think the major problem was that he wanted to break the dollar system. I think that that was the bigger problem. Yes, yes. And the domino topple of the entireity of North Africa.

Sure. Which is a fun of which is a foot. Okay. That's a different. It's a different. It's a different conversation. And it is a different. So I'd like to focus on the one we were on.

If Gaddafi had news. Let me speak. If Gaddafi had nukes to launch at London and Paris and, and and and and and Berlin, would they have launched into the kinetic action and take him out? Would they, would they have laid Libya to waste completely? You know, like they come to you and say like, well, you know, nukes, that's not a way. You know, it's a, we'll, we'll give you a security guarantee. We'll never going to attack you.

We're going to trade with you. We're going to take off the sanctions. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then he goes like, okay. I'll do it. And then they destroy his whole country, kill 40,000 Libyans in the process, assassinate him, and today Libya is from the country with the highest standard of living to a complete failed state where you can buy slaves in open market. I mean, that's who you're dealing with. So if you're Iran and you saw,

this what do you do you say we're going to do the right thing and we're going to trust them we're going to build trust with them they could trust russians but what if they regime change russia again this is the this is the argument now the the fear my fear is the widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons there's an argument now going around that everybody should have a nuke okay everybody should have a nuke because then everybody is to turn i don't agree with that I think that's insane. I don't agree with that either. That's the end of your argument here.

Because it is. Because if once you allow, okay, you say that to Iran. Okay, now Libya. Well, I need one. I need one for this reason. I need one for that reason. Well, everybody should get one. Eventually, that's what happens.

Unless the world leaders who, and this is the other thing, your fear is that city of London will not be destroyed. And that over time, we're going to wind up right back. where we were, free Trump, free, you know, and the United States is going to fall right back into the thing. I would rather discuss the concept. And this is why I'm, I would want to move the conversation away from this to what's the possibility of the United States falling back into those old into, into what we've lived with our entire lives. And what I was, and that's, now we get into that the British create the scopial Bible and all order to create the dispensationalists in order

to tie the United States to Israel, blah, blah, blah, blah. Is that, part of the of u.s culture is that expanding or falling it's falling very rapidly so from a from a cultural perspective the united states is moving away from that project in the same way that the british i'm learning now that the british were in there in the mid around the same time as they were disseminating the scofield bible in the united states they were disseminating they They were helping affect the commentaries that were being published about the Quran, right, in order to, you know, in order to create this false narrative about what Islam is and is not. Correct? Do you, we agree with that?

So they're here. So we, so it says that deep that they've been doing this. So now we have, so we have to also fear, if you fear the United States is going to not get rid of its. Cofield Bible dispensationalist British fucking perfidy roots. Shouldn't we worry about the various sects of Islam that have been radicalized against, you know, wrongly, radicalized by these same fucking people. Like, this is the problem. And yeah, but this is not Iran.

Iran is that's not Iran. This, this sex that you're talking about, that's, that's the jihadis trained up by the CIA and MI6 in, in Afghanistan, in, in Uzbekistan. in Dagestan, in Chechnya, Kosovo, Albania, Middle East, North Africa. That's not Iran. Iran is exactly on the other side of all this. Well, okay, I don't know what the deal is with M.K. But within Iran, you have Shia Islam that has not been under the CIA MI6 influence.

That's a different – you're talking about a very different – current of Islam? What I would my I will say I will beg ignorance on this concept because I don't know very much about this so I will so I'm

putting the argument out there and I think we should all be looking in that direction I am not going to sit here and tell you that I'm in any way matter of shape or form a scholar on Islam I know very little if anything about what I'm looking at now is

How do we beat these people who created all this crap? And how can we ensure that all of these conflicts and all of these misconceptions and all of this, this chaos that was designed, we all agree is designed to allow itself to wither away? As you remember, go back to your original arguments on this, Alex, in the first 20 minutes of the podcast today. where you very eloquently pointed out all of the things that are being set up by what's happened so far. Right. And what's been happened, what's happened so far is it looks like Trump understands that the way to get everybody to stop arguing with each other is to, hey, we don't want a regime change you. We want you to become part of the world.

I have people asking me all the time. People saying, what is this mega thing? Is it Iran or is the Iran or Israel? Like it's boat. We've got to get Israel out of this, out of this process. We got to get Israel out of this mindset as well. And from, you know, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I agree.

And this is what I'm getting at is what I'm hoping for here. And I'm also, but now the, the big stick has to be moved away from this powder keg or this cauldron, this ant jar, as you like to put it, and move it. And now look at the next ant jar, that's, they're trying to shake back up again, Russia, Ukraine, when the reality is is that we know we're reaching the endpoint on their control over the financial markets, that everything is being set up within the United States now and the way we handle the dollar, now we get into like stable coins and treasury markets and tokenization and all that stuff.

And how city of London's power, what real power that allows them to continue to do all this shit is being systematically taken, whittled away, bit by bit by bit, right? And that's when I'm focused on now. Because I, I, I, we can agree to disagree about whether Iran pursued the right strategy or not. And I'm happy to do that because my, because I think we were both realized that the way to, the way to a durable piece, not a metastable piece, is to stop.

that nonsense. And it's durable in the sense of, you know, a century or two or whatever. It's from the, you know, the story never ends, folks. It just keeps going. There's always going to be some kind of conflict in the world. But we could have an age of two or three hundred years of relative peace because, you know, we solved all these problems in this time period today. And it's not our job to solve the, you know, humanity's problem for the next 10,000 years. It's our job to solve to help solve humanity's problems for the next four to six generations. And that means cutting through all the bullshit about China, cutting through all the bullshit about Russia, Iran, Israel, this, all of it,

every bit of it. And at the same time, say, yep, we fucked up. We destroyed Libya. Yes, we drove Iran into this, into this, we cut North Korea off from the world. We did this. We did all these things. Like at some point, it's not about XP, it's about, you call it expiating your sins or whatever. It's like admitting, yeah, we made these mistakes.

Now let's fix it. That's what I'm focused on. Because we're not going to be able to go forward if we don't. No disagreement there at all. And I think that we are moving in that direction. But, you know, it has to be, you know, as the Iranians suggested at the beginning of this escalation, they said, we give up our deterrent and Israel gives up their nukes as well. So how about that?

I agree. That is, you know, I think that's good. going to happen. And I think that, you know, this signal that Trump gave that he's ready to deal with the Chinese since the 19th May, he's spoken to Putin three times long conversation, right? Like one hour or longer. So they're not courtesy calls. They're substantive discussions. And I think, you know, Trump has said way back in the beginning of his term that he wants, no, maybe even before inauguration, that he wants to rid the world of nuclear weapons. And I'm pretty sure that this is some of what he's discussing with Putin and G. And I think that both the Russians

and the Chinese and the Iranians, that's more than both, right? They all want this, because nuclear weapons, not only are they horrible, they're also not necessary anymore, they're obsolete. Because you have precision-guided hypersonic missiles that you can accurately aim at strategic military targets rather than wiping out the whole, a whole country, basically. So I think that for this reason, the world will move in this direction. But I wanted to get back. You asked why Harry Truman did this. I'll tell you why Harry Truman did this. Because he had no idea about what the hell he was doing.

He was put in place as the vice president. I think at the point when the Churchill gang already knew that we're going to get rid of FDR. And they didn't want Henry Wallace there. So they picked up this, you know, clueless Henry Truman guy. And, you know, Harry Truman was the author of that quote, There's Nothing New in the World except the History You Don't Know. Do you know that one? Well, it turns out.

No, I haven't heard that. Yeah, yeah, there's nothing new under the sun or there's nothing in the world or under the star. I don't know what. There's nothing new under the sun other than the history. you don't know. Right. The implication being like everything is already known. He was put there. He had no idea about everything, anything. So he was constantly like, oh, is this how it is? And, you know, everything was new to him. And so he was very easily manipulated. And so it wasn't him saying like, hey, I want to drop a bomb on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. They were like, Mr. President, we have to do this because

R, right, you know. And he was like, okay, where do I sign? So that's, but it's the people behind him. And the people behind him ultimately, again, you find Winston Churchill and his people because that's who eliminated Wallace to put in Winston Churchill, sorry, to put in Harry Truman and then poison FDR to remove him off the scene because FDR was really interested. in doing what Trump is doing now, cutting deals, talking to the Russians, being friends with Stalin and making sure that the two superpowers have constructive, productive cooperation. And so, you know, once he was out of the picture, then everything started moving again in the British direction because, oh yeah, you know, 1945, we had Operation Unthinkable.

That happened like just a few months after they eliminated FDR. Operation Unthinkable was, hey, let's all get together Americans, the British, with the Polish manpower and whatever is left of German Nazis, and turn around and go to war against the Soviet Union and take them down. That was Operation Unthinkable. That was M.A.6 putting in front of what's his face, Winston Churchill, they wanted to go through with this. Fortunately, Dwight Eisenhower killed it.

But they didn't relent. Then in 1946, we had the Iron Curtain speech, the Fulton speech where they barely freaking finished World War II with Soviets destroying the Nazi Wermacht. And Winston Churchill gives the speech declaring Soviet Union to be the enemy. And Harry Truman was right there. He was like Chancellor Schultz, you know. Guess what we're going to blow up Nord Stream 2?

And he was like, okay. Yeah, that sounds like a good idea. And then 1948, they formed NATO, right? So it all started from London. And today, and then, yeah, 1948, they also create Israel. So what we're seeing today is the disintegration, the beginnings of the disintegration, of the whole structure of insecurity that was imposed upon the world that started from London in the, not even in the aftermath of World War II.

In the last day of World War II, they already planned this before World War II was even over. And so this is what we're dealing with. And Harry Truman was every bit as clued into the events as Kayakalas is today, Ursula von der Leyen or Zelensky or freaking Starmer they have no idea they're just being told read this sign here and we need to do this Mr. President that's anyway I thought I'd share that yeah no that that and and you know that's that's that's that's the hope that's maybe the most generous read of Truman you know Truman could also just you know gone all been panpicked to go along with it all I mean, like, you know, I'm...

Yeah, that's exactly what I meant to say. Did I... Yeah, I would know that he was handpicked to go along with this all, not because he's an idiot, but because he actually was... Oh, you think he had his heart. I'm not... All I'm saying is, you know, I don't know. I'm just saying it could easily be the other way around because, look, like,

if you look at, like, you brought up Shoals, and Shoals is a really nice... exemplary to that, corollary to that because he makes a, it's a nice echo of that argument because, you know, I know that Scholes was politically paralyzed. He couldn't move. He had to allow North Stream 2 to happen. He couldn't make any deals with Gazprom. He couldn't sign, you know, he couldn't do it.

He was captured and neutralized by whatever powers were surrounding him. And you could make the argument that what Truman was as well, as opposed to being clueless, he could have been completely neutralized. And I had this, I had this impression, Tom, because I read some stuff about Truman and I read some, I think his letters or speed, whatever. And I got the distinct impression that the man was really, really out of his depth, that he really didn't know a whole lot of anything about anything. So he was he was the 1940s equivalent of Joe Biden. I think he was the 1940s Joe Biden or all of Schultz. Fair. Fair. And again, you know, he's dead now. Who knows? And whatever we have, we have. But that's the impression I gathered.

That's a that's fine. It's a perfectly it's a perfectly valid framework to work from. And that's what we think we know. Right. So, well, you know, the part the part about the operation unthinkable and the Fulton speech, iron curtain speech and the formation of NATO and formation of Israel, that's, you know, beyond any doubt. You know, that's right. Of course. That's facts. No, no, no, no. I understand that.

What Truman understood about all that is what we think we know. That's what I mean. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Probably fuck all. Of, we got Alex to swear. Well, you know, being on the verge of World War II, World War III

Oh, bring it out of you. It kind of loosens up the language, doesn't it? Yeah, it really does. So now, if we have a little bit more time, I think we should really talk about what we think is going on at NATO right now because, I mean, Victor Orban this morning came out and said, you know, that Zelensky has no business being in any of these meetings, that Hungary, Slovakia, the United States, and somebody else. I can't remember who he who said this is unacceptable zonski shouldn't be at any of our meetings what the

fuck is he's not part of this this this these these organizations and these people are running around like and then there was the big we stand the the big picture of we stand with um NATO stands with with Zelensky did you notice that all the leaders that were in the photo did you notice that Trump wasn't in that photo they took that phone he wasn't there no no I just saw it on I'm von der Leans, because von der Saetan's, you know, garbage burbles up through my X feed all the time because I actually follow her because I want to know what she's, you know, virtue signaling about. And she puts up this big photo and, you know, one of my people found it. And we were talking about it on my Slack server this morning.

And there it was. And it was like, and there's, there's, you know, Zelensky and there's all these people. And I went, I don't see Trump. Where's Trump in this photo? I'm like, hmm, that's a tell. Where's Victor Orban? He's not enough photo either, probably. If I go back, I'm like, yeah, I think, I think Croatian president was also not on board.

I don't know if he was in the photo, but he was, he was saying Zelensky has absolutely no reason to be here. This is not, this is not. Yeah, I think, I think Croatia was the other, was the other country that was mentioned. Yes. Yeah. And I, I think we're watching the beginnings of the unraveling of NATO. I agree. You said it this morning on Twitter, and, and I retweet,

did you um you know i i did i i saw i saw your post this morning and it was it was on i think it was in response to the gear if you linked to victor or yeah yeah yeah he was like he said his shit and walked off yeah he walked off like i haven't i haven't seen that before yeah no it's there i i think it's very i think it's very very clear and this is something else i wanted to talk about and my my impression of everybody agreeing to spending 5% of GDP on defense. I'm like, that's Trump's way of saying, look, I solved your little, I solved this Iran-Israel thing and you don't have that to work with anymore. And so now you're going to agree because if you don't, then like you look like the warmongers you actually are. So yeah, you're going to spend five percent of GDP on defense, which I know

none of you can afford. So one of three things are set up. This is Trump saying, yeah, do this. And how are you going to pay for it you can't or you're going to have to go for full you're going to have to go for full your EU integration which means giving tax and spend authorities to the European Commission and rolling up with the central banks up into member central banks up into the EU into the ECB so they can have a central you know um authority on it which the which clearly these people want which they need anyway for the CBDC for the euro CBC which and at that point Trump's like, yeah, and then I can, and then if you do all that and you're and you actually, and if you actually pull that off, you don't need us anymore.

What do you need us? Yes. Yes. Yes. I, yeah, this is this is the equivalent of them, of him leading them to the edge of the building, you know, and then like pushing them going, hey, what, hey, feeling froggy? Why don't you take that leave? Yeah. Because Europe, neither Europe nor NATO can survive this. Yeah, exactly. There's no way. The individual central banks are never going to agree to this.

I think the European people are not going to accept any of this. And if they even try, it's all going to be unraveling. And Alex, I know you and I haven't had a chance to speak about this, but I've been following the financial markets, watching financial markets through all of this. And clearly, the reason why I was willing to explore, things the way I did was because I kept watching the financial markets and they weren't responding in any way like World War III was on the horizon one and then

two I started watching I was I was putting the newsletter together I realized I went sort of looking at the going back over the tariff tantrum because now we have the the June TIC report that and it's clear that Mark Carney Sean you'll love to you don't you'll be happy to hear this that that Mark Carney was the architect of the tariff tantrum attack on the US Treasury market because Canada sold $57.8 billion worth of U.S. treasuries in the month of April alone. Okay. Now, moreover, that's confirmed. Yeah. That's US TIC data from April. So now on top of that, so as I was going through

the entire TIC report, I looked at everything that was weird, right? All significant moves by central banks and I found four of them. you have Canada, you had the British who bought around just under $28 billion. Now it was clear they were probably trying to maintain the UK guilt market so that there wasn't a huge credit spread between the U.S. and UK guilt because we know that that's a no-go for a lot of their pension funds and everything else. As I said in the past, when you watch the U.K. U.S. 10-year spread pop above 60 basis points, governments fall in the UK. It's happened twice in the last three years. So that didn't really

bother me. And then it was Singapore and Hong Kong both sold $15 billion. And I'm like, okay, well, they make sense for a couple of reasons. With a weak in the U.S. dollar, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, we have to defend the peg. And the Singapore Monetary Authority or the Monetary Authority of Singapore would maintain their exchange rate ban, which is how they do monetary policy. They They don't target inflation, by the way, Sean, to see you know. They have a different system in Singapore. And I said, okay, well, all that tracks. But then I said, and on a lark, I went, I checked the Hong Kong dollar.

And the Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the upper end of the band for almost a month. And it's trying to break something this weak dollar is forcing. What I'm seeing around the world is a massive dearth of dollars. And we've got a, we've got, we've also got a weird situation in the U.S. T bill market, the one, two, and three months. And we're also seeing the reverse of what we're seeing in the U.S. T bill market in the European Tee bowl market, which is we're seeing massive buying of the one month, the 30 day U.S. T bill, and selling across Europe in the 30 day T bill market. I did this on Friday last week before I sat down to talk with Marty Ben. And I said, okay, I'm like watching this, but I'm seeing a blowout where the massive selling in the two months and three months, I posted it on my Twitter feed. Somebody came back to me and said, yeah, I've been watching this too.

And we're just seeing massive selling of 60 and 90 day U.S. paper coming out of Europe because they're desperate for dollars. So just selling fee bills and buying dollars. So there's this whole dollar thing that's happening. And then the Hong Kong dollar, they're having to defend the peg. they're selling U.S. treasuries to get dollars to defend the peg because the Hong Kong dollar is weakening.

And so then they'll sell those dollars to keep to try and hold the Hong Kong dollar from breaking out of the peg. Watching all that, again, we go back to our friend Martin Armstrong who says, Forex is everything. It always shows up in the 4X markets. Oh, by the way, at the same time

that all this is happening, the Swiss franc, the pound, and the euro versus the Hong Kong dollar are all strengthening. And then as a confirmatory piece of data, which makes sense that there's a, you know, there's a dollar market that's, you know, okay, that's dollar. That's one thing. Then the last confirmatory piece of data is what's the other significant currency peg that's in the world today? There's the Hong Kong dollar and there's the Saudi Arabian real, both tightly pegged to the dollar.

Well, the Saudi Arabian real is not showing any, any stress at all with this weak dollar market. So someone's doing a run on the Hong Kong dollar market. And I think, I'll be honest with you, I think it's Scott Besant or Scott Besson trying to break the peg. I also think that so much of that money, so much of what's happening there is a lot of money is being repatriated back to Europe in order to try and keep the dollar. trying to keep the euro, the pound, and the Swiss franc are all being used in member. The Swiss franc, the Swiss national bank went back to the zero bound on Thursday of last week after the Fed didn't cut. All this stuff is happening.

So what I'm telling you is that it's what we're seeing at NATO, what we're seeing with Israel, Iran, is also playing out here in the Forex markets that there's significant amount of of pressure being placed on the euro dollar system within Europe, which tells me also that Martin's projections that the war is going to start back up again in July and or August makes sense because what's their next move, which is to try and get, trying to get some fucking war started. Okay.

And so my worry here, and this is, I'm going to, and I hope Israel Iran is finished. I hope it's finished. We're going to find out who's working for whom, right? Not just Israel or Iran, but we know about Ukraine and Russia and everything else. I'm hoping that neither of them get involved in what's coming next, right? That neither Israel nor Iran get involved in what happens next, meaning they don't restart hostilities in July or August.

That's what I'm hoping for, because if so, then we know that Israel and Iran are basically agree to Trump's terms and they're and they're and they're and and they're standing down and that we can now deal with now we have to just deal with resolving Russia, Ukraine. And that's the that's what I think is is on the table. But I'm going to watch it and I want to see what happens. And if Israel goes off half cocked, then they attack Iran again, well then we know exactly what's going on in Israel. And then it'll confirm everything you've said about Israel, Alex, by the way. So. Okay. You know, the problem is that between Israel and Iran, you have Syria. And Syria is a pressure pot. And the Brits are very present there. They have the predominant presence there. And so Syria is an easy way. for the Brits to derail Trump's peace.

And if they do, neither Israel nor Iran will be able to stay out. And then in addition to that, there's also the Balkans where, you know, the pressure pot is being heated up as well. But the same people. Talk about that. If you would, please. Well, you know, you have Bosnia and Herzegovina there in the heart of the Western Balkans. And it's a very, it's a peculiar area because you have pre-constituent peoples there. Serbians who are Orthodox Christians. You have Croatians who are Catholic and you have Muslims.

And so it's relatively easy to get something going there. Not because the people hate one another because, you know, what they used to always write in Western media, like, oh, it's the centuries, all hatred, you know, these completely primitive, irrational peoples who just, like, can't miss a chance to jump at each other's throat. It's not that. It's British interests now, again, you know, not coming with the British government business card. They're coming through NGOs, UN workers, charity organizations, media organizations, public relations organizations, and so on. And so they are establishing tight cooperation with the security services of the government of Sarajevo. They have predominant influence in the media and in the public relations domain. They have already made, created this kind of psychosis where 60% of all Bosnians believe that their chief foreign threat is coming from Russia.

Meanwhile, the, you know, the head of the, the head of the Bosnian intelligence apparatus is singing accolades to the British, how they are like our best friend forever. They are, you know, our ally and all these wonderful things. And the PR domain, again, you have a bunch of these NGOs, private contractors. One of them is called Albany Associates. And Albany Associates earned their war stripes in Syria of all places. So, you know, they are... They already have a very impressive track record in polarizing peoples and triggering civil wars. Between 2012 and now, over one million Syrians dead.

And now they're... And, yeah, and, you know, it's not like they don't know what they're doing. You know, the Rusi think tank, Royal United Services Institute, Royal United Services Institute, Royal United Services Institute, they already said that the Balkans are going to be inevitably the second front in the West's conflict against Russia. So, you know, Trump made peace in the Middle East. In a tricksy way, actually kind of impressive.

But the Brits have rigged the place with dynamite. And then for good measure, not only Syria, but also Bosnia-Herzegovina. And then if things get going there, Serbia is not going to be able to stay out. Croatia is not going to be able to stay out. Bosnia is not going to be able to stay out. And then there's a good chance that Bulgaria and Hungary get, Hungary, get enmeshed in Albania. And they are working on this. they're working on this.

So we'll see what happens, but, you know, defending the peace is going to be hard, and people are going to have to pay attention. And, you know, how do they get wars going? They shake the jar, you know? And Bosnia is a great jar because it's not just red ants and the black ends. You also have yellow ants. You have three kinds.

And the way you shake up the jar is basically you get a group of thugs on one side, side. You pay the money and you tell them, hey, go and make a massacre in that village of those people. And then you make sure that the BBC people are already present or nearly so, and that there's some British troops there. You can always make up a story that they were to try to prevent violence because that's what they always do. And then if that doesn't get things going, then you do the reverse. Now you find a bunch of people from this group.

You rile them up, you pay them some money, and then you make sure that they go and commit a bigger massacre on that other side. Well, by then you have the whole society polarized. Everybody's armed up to their teeth, and everybody wants to kill every last person of the yellow ants or the red ones or whoever, you know. And that's how you shake up the jar. and they've done this for centuries. It's like, it's like, it's like smoking a cigar for you, Tom.

That's how excited they get about that. And, and, you know, they're laying, they're, you know, like they're laying the demolition plans as we speak. Yeah. Now, that makes, that makes perfect sense. I'm glad you pointed all that out because we're, I don't think we're out of the. woods on this in any way matter to perform. I think this is just one this is just one part of the

problem that has to be has to be dealt with. And it's I'm glad you brought it up because that's what I wanted to discuss is where we go next. And I'm hoping that everybody understands this so that and I'm hoping more more than anything that they understand this in the White House. I hope so. I really do hope so. And I think that to a good extent that they do, and I was very encouraged because I listened to a podcast interview by a Croatian politician from Bosnia. And he said how he went to see people in the Trump administration a couple of months ago. And he thought, you know, I thought I was probably going to have to explain to them where. Bosnia is on the map. He said, I was shocked to find that they knew a lot. They were like completely

clued in. They knew everything. So that's good. That's good news. Let's let's hope and pray that they keep playing their game skillfully and in in coordination with the Russians and the Chinese and the Iranians. If if I go over the track record of this show, when we first started talking, we were looking at Nord Stream. It was like the first one I ever did with you guys. I was actually just listening to it. And, you know,

we're talking about Nord Stream. And the, the fever pitch on that podcast was something, right? You had Alex calming everybody down. You had Tom Rale and everybody up. I'm being a little bit simple. But, you know,

like, that's where the world was at. And when you look at it, now years later, you got Putin sitting there and shown great restraint. Right? Doesn't make him a great humanitarian. It's just as a world leader, you see that.

And if you listen to this after we talked at the start, and Alex Let us through it, about Iran and Israel, and Trump's role in there, you would say, okay, well, if that's true, no matter what conflict tries to get started, you have world leaders currently for the next couple of years that are starting to look at this and go, what are they trying to do?

the fact they know where all these places are doesn't shock me because they're probably looking at the map going well we got a problem there we got a problem there we got a problem there we got a problem there we got a problem there and the problems don't go away overnight i like iranin israel doesn't go away away but what you two just told me is that for a little bit it's been de-escalated for a little bit that doesn't mean that all the atrocities go away that doesn't happen like i mean that's still really real that is right there what you just rattled off, Alex said over in Syria a million people over the course of a decade or more. I forget the time frame you put on. I'm like, well, that doesn't go away for those people, so that becomes a spot you

look at it at the map and go, we're going to have a problem there. And how are we going to deal with this? What you're getting at is that you're starting to have capable people in different parts of the world starting to look at this and talking to one another. And the talking part is really important because under the Biden administration, nobody was

talking to Putin. He said that. Nobody's picking up the phone. The United States under Biden wasn't talking to anybody. They were just, they were doing nothing other than making everything worse. They were just running around as flying monkeys would know because the wicked witch of the West was senile. And the flying monkeys were just running around doing whatever the hell they wanted. And that was the plan. And as far as I'm concerned, that was clearly the point of putting Biden in the White House.

So you take the win or whatever, and I don't mean win is a hockey game or whatever. I don't know. That's probably a poor word. But you take this conversation and where we started as like, oh, right? That doesn't mean there won't be 50 more problems in the next 20 days. There probably will be. This is win number one of four in a series. This is win number one of 16 to win the Stanley Cup.

This is win one of 65 or 70 that you need to win. starting in October to win the Stanley Cup in June to for the Canadians in the audience. You understand. Yes. And you have to remember the other side as you go up it are going to be looking in that and going, well, it's time to pull that lever. It's time to pull that lever. It's time to do that.

Because they want to do what they want to do too. Yep. And, you know, this is where we have to watch. This is why, you know, the focus should be on all of these things that Alex pointed out of where they're trying to stir up the ant jar. And then look at what Trump is capable of achieving on the domestic front to shore up his political position to be able to stop them shaking the jar. The way, that's kind of the way, what my framework is at this point.

It's watching all of watching, because all of this then goes back to what we see, domestically, right? And what they're, and the pins they're pulling and the grenades are, the pins on the grenades they're pulling domestically, right? And on our borders with Mark Carney in Canada and what Mexico is trying to do and like Shinebaum's doing down in Mexico and all the rest of it. It's all part of the same thing. They're shaking the frigging jar everywhere all at once. And the good news is they feel like they have to.

The bad news is that they're doing it. And we don't know what the outcome is going to be. But they felt, they felt desperate enough, right, at this point to do those things. The same thing as we said during COVID. Why did they feel so damn desperate to pull COVID on us back in 2020? When it was clearly that they wanted to pull COVID on us in 2024, 2025, or whenever. They had a Gant chart. They had to move that one early and then, you know, and then start the process because things were changing behind the scenes.

My argument is that the things were changing behind the scenes in the plumbing. of the financial markets, which grease the wheels of all of this shit. Right. It's like, because they can't keep doing this, and they don't have the money to do it. Because war is expensive. Like, even, even, you know, fomenting ant-shaking, ant-trak shaking is expensive, right? It's not as expensive as fighting a world war, right? But it's still expensive.

And especially if you're broke, you know, gasping on your last leg, city of London, you know, and you now have to put your own money on the table. This is what I've been trying to say for weeks now, yeah, for weeks now. They went after USAID, NED, and all the NGOs domestically in the United States to take so that no longer were the American people spending money on their own destruction, you know, through the tax system. We've started to staunch that flow. Then you've got to stop the private money coming in. And that's the, you know, you using that and that's like for example one aspect of this is ice going after the the cartel money flowing through the fentanyl trade and everything else and the drug trafficking and the human

trafficking and everybody and all of the intelligence communities around the world making money off of that through the private markets for lack of a better term you got to get rid of that stuff then you can get once you start to really you know roll that you know destroy that those two sources of funding. The only thing left after that is their banked savings that they've gotten from the year, from the centuries of stealing the wealth of humanity. Okay. It's a big fucking pile of money. And we've only just started to drain it. But that the draining of the big pile of money behind them has been started by the Federal Reserve. And the big question now is, in my argument, the big question now is, is Trump going to do something dumb? Like, and because he's got the,

he's got the debt rollover and all the things that he wants to do domestically, is he going to prioritize that over keeping a Fed chair in place that under, that is literally doing yeoman's work to drain the global dollar markets and make dollars expensive to obtain for people who don't want to, you know, affect, bend the knee to the new dollar regime, is that we are not, we're using, we're using the dollar today to shore up our world, not the global, right?

Not the globalism project, not project globalism, but Project America 2.0 is the way I'm like, just to make it simple. You can disagree with me on this, but this is what I say, okay? And I'm putting it out there. And I think it's pretty clear and pretty obvious that that's what Trump is attempting to do here.

I get it. I'm so sorry to do this. I literally have to run out in one minute. Yeah, that's fine. Alex, no, no, no. We need to wrap it up anyways. You gave me an hour and a half and we went over by a few minutes. Boys, thanks for doing this.

Appreciate it. And, well, until we talk again, gentlemen. Thank you. Take care. Have a great.