Short Wave - Omicron's Arrival Is 'Wake-Up Call' That The Pandemic Is Ongoing

Episode Date: November 30, 2021

The coronavirus is still circulating and mutating — case in point, the World Health Organization has designated a new variant of concern, called omicron. The variant appears to have some characteristics that may make it more transmissible than others, but much about it is still unknown. NPR health correspondent Allison Aubrey talks with Emily Kwong about how researchers and public health experts are racing to learn all they can about it — including how transmissible it actually is and how it responds to current vaccines. They also talk travel bans, a weak tool in preventing viral spread that may even penalize information sharing.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

You're listening to Shortwave from NPR. Hey, shortwavers. Emily Kwong here with Alison Aubrey, NPR's health correspondent. Hello. Hey, Emily, it's great to be here. Hey, let's get into this. I mean, I think you were busier this past weekend than you thought you'd be. That's right. I thought it was going to be a quiet Thanksgiving weekend, but not so.

And as most people now know, scientists around the world have been keeping a keen eye out for variance. Yep. And late last week, they found one. A new variant of the coronavirus has been identified and is spreading around the globe. The World Health Organization has just designated it an official variant of concern and given it the name Omicron. Omicron was first reported to the World Health Organization by South Africa. And news of its spread has created uncertainty as the United States emerges from this holiday

weekend. Since it was first identified in South Africa this month, it's also been reported. in Europe and Asia. And there's a lot we don't know yet about Omicron. I mean, we don't know how transmissible it is. We don't know how well vaccines protect against infection. So I'm kind of waiting for more information and being extra cautious in the meantime. That's right.

And top infectious disease experts say Omicron is a wake-up call that this pandemic isn't over, as many people in the United States and around the globe remain unvaccinated. So today on the show, a look at Omicron. What we know and what we don't and how researchers are working quickly to fill in the gaps. You're listening to Shortwave, the Daily Science Podcast from NPR. Alison, I want to start by saying you and I are chatting on Monday morning Eastern Time. So by the time this airs on Tuesday, honestly, some details may have changed. This pandemic has had a lot of twists and turns.

But let's talk about what we know now about the spread of Omicron. It was first identified in South Africa. That's right. It has now been found in the U.K., in Israel, Hong Kong, several other countries, and also now in Canada, two cases in Ontario as of Sunday night. And though lots of travel restrictions are now in place, it's kind of impossible to stop the spread, Emily. It's just a matter of time, likely, before it's detected here in the U.S. Yep. Okay. And why are researchers in public health folks so worried about this one, about this variant? You know, right now the concern is that this new variant has many mutations, more than 30, and there's a correlation between these mutations and possibly increased transmissibility. Now, you might wonder why. Why are these mutations significant? Well, they're on the spike protein, and that's the important region of the virus that it uses to bind to cells. Remember, viruses have

to get inside our cells in order to replicate and make us sick. So this is why all the spike protein mutations are of concern. Here's Dr. Anthony Fauci speaking on NBC on Sunday. The profile of the mutations strongly suggest that it's going to have an advantage in transmissibility. And that, together with the fact that it just kind of exploded in the sense that when you look in South Africa, you were having a low level of infection. And then all of a sudden there was this big spike. And when the South Africans looked at it, they said, oh my goodness, this is a different virus than we've been dealing with. So let's keep in mind that concerns about this new variant Omicron are layered on top of the fact that there's a current surge in Europe. And here in the U.S., cases have been rising for weeks.

Though some researchers say that the variant appears to have been circulating for maybe a few months now. So, you know, maybe this has grown more slowly than some fear. A lot is still unknown. And I want to underscore that that this is a highly fluid situation. We will know a lot more in a week. right now there's more unknown than known. Yeah, there truly is a lot we don't know. And I think that's important to say, like to not guess, but say, you know, we don't know and scientists are working to figure it out. Another area of uncertainty is travel restrictions, right? The Biden administration has put travel restrictions in place, prohibiting travel from several Southern African countries. And those decisions have been pretty controversial, right, Allison?

You know, on one hand, travel bans can look like a bold move to try to stop the spread of the virus. But in reality, travel bans are not a great tool to contain the spread. I mean, the World Health Organization has warned against travel bans in this instance, pointing to the burden that it can place on the lives of people. How many lives are disrupted? Yeah. South Africa's Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandora, says, you know, it's important for a country to protect. protect its citizens. But we need to remember that this pandemic requires collaboration and sharing of expertise. Our immediate concern is the damage that these restrictions are causing to families, the travel and tourism industries and business. And those concerns really echo around the

globe. I mean, look, Omokron has already spread to many countries. And it hasn't been identified in the U.S. yet, but experts say it's just a matter of time. And even U.S. officials have praised South African officials for acting swiftly and transparently. I mean, they identified the variant. They shared information about it with the world. Dr. Margaret Harris of the World Health Organization told NPR that the South African scientists deserve a medal for all their work identifying Omicron and sharing the information. But now they may feel as if they're being penalized. Okay. So that's what's happening globally. Here in the U.S., if Omicron were to gain a significant foothold, to what extent would fully vaccinated folks be protected?

You know, it's really not clear yet. Within the next week or so, there will be a better sense of that. Scientists around the world are already taking plasma from vaccinated people and testing to see if the antibodies in the blood neutralize or kind of fend off the omicrome variant of the virus. This will offer some indication. And clearly, infectious disease experts will also be tracking the known cases in South Africa and elsewhere to.

get a sense of severity, you know, looking at how sick do people get? Among fully vaccinated people, the expectation is that there would be some protection. Here's former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb. He's on the board of Pfizer. He spoke on CBS on Sunday. The question here is going to be whether or not a fully boosted individual, someone who's had three doses of vaccine, has good protection against this variant. Right now, if you talk to people in vaccine circles, people who are working on a vaccine, they have a pretty good degree of confidence that a boosted vaccine, so three full doses of vaccine is going to be fairly protective against this new variant. You know, even if there is some decrease in protection, the vaccines have been shown to work

against other variants. And so the expectation is that this will also be true to some extent with Omicron. But again, this is their best guess. This new variant has a lot of mutations that could complicate this. So there's a lot to figure out. A lot to figure out. Still. And this is playing it out even further. If it turns out that the vaccines are not that protective against Omicron, is it possible to retool them? Yes, that is possible. And this is sort of the beauty of the MRNA technology. Moderna has already started working on an Omicron-specific booster. A spokesperson told me that on Sunday, in terms of timing, Moderna says it can get a new booster candidate to clinical testing in about 60 to 90 days.

So vaccine makers have anticipated that they may need to alter the boosters, so they've been kind of preparing for all possibilities. That's right. Because even before the news of the new variant emerged last week, Allison experts were already concerned about like a post- Thanksgiving spike. Is that still a concern on top of Omicron? Yes, absolutely. I mean, just before Thanksgiving, cases had climbed pretty significantly to about 94,000

cases a day. This is particularly notable in the Midwest and northeast right now, but certainly not limited to these areas. In fact, about 85% of counties in the U.S. have seen either high or significant levels of spread leading up to the holiday. So that's just an indication the virus is still out there circulating widely. I spoke to Dr. David Rubin of the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. He's been analyzing the data about what we can expect over the next couple of weeks after all of the holiday. travel and gatherings. I do think Thanksgiving is the holiday that often leads to the greatest acceleration because people just go right back to work and go back to school the next week.

So I expect some increases in substantial transmission in the weeks ahead. And I think this is a time that I would encourage not just unvaccinated, but a vaccinated individuals to equip themselves with the mask again. Especially when you're indoors and crowded public spaces. I mean, modelers have said that this winter's surge is likely to be. less intense, given that about 74% of people aged 5 and up who are eligible for vaccination have gotten at least one shot. And even with the uncertainty introduced by Omicron, the more people who get vaccinated and boost it, the more protected we will all likely be. So all this to say, right now would be a very good time to get boosted, if you can. Yes, if you're over 18 and it's

been six months since you got your second dose. And to be COVID cautious, wear a mask. when you are indoors, in public spaces, wash your hands. Things we're very, very good at right now. That's right. I mean, we've learned a lot since the pandemic started in March of 2020. It's been a long time. And though this is a new variant, this is not a new disease. So the same measures will be effective to protect us against the spread. Yes. We know better now. And if you have been traveling over Thanksgiving and you notice symptoms like a sore throat or a fever, you shouldn't panic. What should you do? Well, you should get tested. I mean, one option is to go to a pharmacy or a doctor's office or a testing site for a PCR lab test. Or you can do the over-the-counter rapid antigen test, such as the Abbott-Binix Now test. I mean, these come in two packs. And you should do them both at least 24 hours apart for best accuracy. That's because these tests aren't great at picking up early infections. So you could be negative one day and positive to the next.

Awesome. Thank you, Alison, so much for helping us stay calm and informed and safe. Really appreciate all the information you're bringing us today. You're welcome, Emily. Great to be here. This story was edited by Jane Greenhalsh and Giselle Grayson. Rebecca Ramirez was the producer and Margaret Serino checked the facts. I'm Emily Kwong, and you're listening to Shortwave, the Daily Science podcast from NPR.