Short Wave - The Science Is Simple, So Why Is Opening Schools So Complicated?

Episode Date: August 17, 2020

School districts, parents and teachers are all facing big decisions about how to return to the classroom this fall. NPR health correspondent Allison Aubrey and education correspondent Cory Turner join Geoff Brumfiel to discuss what the science says about kids and COVID-19, what schools are doing to try to keep students and teachers safe and why there are so many differing approaches in school districts around the U.S. Email the show at [e-mail]. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

You're listening to Shortwave from NPR. Jeff Brumfield here, filling in for Maddie. And today I'm joined by two of my favorite colleagues, health correspondent Alison Aubrey. Hey there, Jeff. Hi there. And education correspondent, Corey Turner. You're one of my favorites, too, Jeff. Teacher's pet.

I love it. Now, all three of us have something in common, which is that we are parents. So we're all facing this huge dilemma around schools. Do we send our kids back in the middle of a pandemic, or do we try to teach them in front of a screen at the kitchen table? It seems like my family's plans are changing pretty much every day. What about you guys? What's going on? What are your plans?

Yeah. I mean, my kids are virtual until 2021 because our school district has said they are going to be remote only for everyone, which means I will be working in my basement until 2021. My son's high school was going to try the hybrid thing. Now they're opening 100% virtual. My daughter's school is 100% virtual. How about you, Jeff? Yeah, I mean, they were going to try this two-day hybrid thing, but now we're virtual through October,

and then I guess we'll just sort of see what happens. And we all live within a 10-mile radius of each other, which I think really illustrates the point. Schools this fall are just completely all over the place. and parents, teachers, students, I think are all understandably confused and worried, no matter what's going on in their school district. So today on the show, the coronavirus and schools, what the science says about kids and COVID, what schools are doing to try and stay safe. And when, oh, when will the three of us actually send our children out of the house and back to class? Okay, so we're going to dive into the situation around schools and schools and schools.

COVID in just a second. But first, Alison, can you bring us up to speed on the latest science around children in the coronavirus? Because I feel like there's just so much bad information out there. Sure. Bottom line is that kids typically don't get as sick as adults, but they absolutely do and can catch the virus. And they can transmit it. We know that at least 97,000 kids tested positive for coronavirus in the last two weeks of July. That's according to a new review. by the American Academy of Pediatrics. Overall, kids made up about 9% of cases. So there have been a lot of kids infected.

Right. And I feel like there's just so much wishful thinking out there that somehow kids won't bring this home when, like, I've never been so sick as since I've become a parent. Like, kids bring everything home. So true. So true.

So why wouldn't they bring us COVID? Corey, what then is the problem that schools face they're trying to reopen here? Well, you know, as our understanding of kids' susceptibility to the disease has evolved, the sense I get today is that the biggest fear now really is around the health of teachers and staff. I heard from a superintendent just yesterday in an area where infection rates are pretty low, that he still can't bring back every student who wants to come back to class

because he doesn't have enough teachers who are willing to come back and teach them. many are older and or immunocompromised. Also, there's another big and important vulnerable group here, which is families that are multi-generational, you know, kids coming home to older grandparents, aunties, uncles. You know, so schools do have the potential to boost the spread of the virus through the community and not just to other kids. NPR's done some in-depth reporting about the science of school reopening, right? Alison, just lay out some of the highlights.

It's like, let's say you're a parent or a teacher because we know there are a lot of teachers listening to Shortwave and we do love you. What should you be thinking about as you look at your school's plan? You know, I mean, I think there are two really important things to consider your personal risk. Corey just touched on this. I mean, if you are a parent and your child gets infected, are you or someone else in your household at high risk of serious illness due to a chronic condition? You know, you have to consider that. And the second thing you really want to look at is what's happening in your area. The more the virus is circulating in your community, the riskier it is for schools to be open.

One benchmark to look for is the positivity rate. So that's how many tests are coming back positive. The American Federation of Teachers says it doesn't consider in-person school to be safe unless fewer than 5% of the coronavirus tests in an area are positive. Now, right now, New York is down there, way down at 1% very low, and that helps explain why Governor Cuomo gave a green light schools to consider reopening. By comparison, Florida is about 11 or 12%. Now, these change daily. You save to keep track of this, but this really is one way to evaluate the risk in your area. I think it's really interesting there that the things you mentioned that people need to think about aren't inside the schools at all. I mean, they're talking about families and individual risk and then the community spread. You know, I mean, all of it is important, right? But researchers looked at approaches to reopening schools in about 15 different countries.

And they concluded that an important key to success is this low baseline rate of community transmission. Because think about it, Jeff. I mean, the more widely the virus is circulating in an area, the harder it's going to be for schools to control it. Well, let's talk a little bit, though, about the precautions that can be taken inside of schools. I mean, for the ones doing in-person learning, what are the basic things they're trying specifically in the classroom? Yeah, I mean, they're trying several things you'll see lots of districts doing. CDC recommends spacing desks six feet apart and kids and staff wearing face coverings whenever possible. Although every time I say six feet apart, I always feel like I need to qualify

it because people don't realize that, you know, for big urban school districts, that six-foot recommendation alone is essentially a deal breaker. You know, they quickly run out of space in their classrooms and their school buildings. So they can't bring all kids back if they're following the six-foot guidelines. Right, right. And I feel like things get even more tangled when we talk about the shape of the school day. There are so many things being tried. All remote hybrid models, a couple days a week, everyone there, everyone not, I don't know. Try being a reporter covering what in the world is happening. Honestly, I can't even cover like what is happening at my child's single elementary school.

Like, I don't know how many hours a day they're going to have. I don't know when they're going to, like, I don't know so much. It really is. It has changed so much. So a great example of that is Chicago public schools had planned to reopen some. at least partially, but then they reverse course and said, you know what? Our infection rates are ticking up slightly. We're going to go all remote, at least for the start of the school year.

And honestly, we've been seeing that a lot. And I have to think that part of that is because the middle ground between the two extreme options here for schools is maybe the hardest thing to pull off. So at the polls first, you have obviously all remote. the other end of the extreme you have a lot of or at least you have several states right now that have been opening early Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia. And they're basically giving folks what I call the either or proposition. Look, you can send your kids to school five days a week or you're going to be remote. That's it. And the challenge is lots of districts were considering the middle ground, the hybrid option where you basically bring kids back in shifts, you know, maybe two or three days

a week and then you trade off, that is incredibly hard to pull off. New York City is going to try to do it, but lots of other districts that said they wanted to do it are now not going to do it. And it's because, again, it requires lots of transitions, puts a lot of pressure on staff. It also raises a lot of questions for families and school leaders. If kids are only in the school building two days a week, where are they the rest of the week? And are they actually being exposed to more people and more potential virus in that model than if they were just in school five days a week? I think you just touched on the critical question there, Corey, because the extent to which, you know, the hybrid model works in terms of trying to lower the risk of a spread really depends

on what kids are doing at the time when they're not in the classroom. If they're home, well, then yes, probably, you know, that would lead you to believe that this whole system, this whole strategy might lower the risk of an outbreak. But if they're out and about and they're at friend's house, if they're being exposed to more people, then perhaps it's riskier. So I find it interesting. The science is actually pretty straightforward, but then when you get out in the real world, there's this huge diversity of things happening in the school districts. I mean, why are some opening and some staying virtual, Corey? How are they making those choices? So this really interesting study that for me pulls the drawstring on the sweatpants.

It's by John Vallant at the Brookings Institution. And he was looking at school reopening plans and at sort of local and regional COVID cases per capita. And he was also looking at how communities voted in the 2016 election. And what he found is there was no relationship between a school's reopening plan and the prevalence of infection in that community. Right. So public health. There was no relationship. What he found was a pretty strong relationship between a reopening plan. And whether or not that community voted for President Trump or for someone else.

Huh, huh. Yeah, that's actually really interesting. You know, I mean, what I keep coming back to, like, as politicizes this whole school opening thing has become, anyone who's involved with schools knows, I mean, we all know, like, as parents and the people I know who are teachers also know, the schools are going to have to reopen. Like, at some point, kids will have to go back to school. COVID or no COVID. I think, frankly, COVID will be with us in some form when that happens. So I guess, you know, my last question for you guys is like, what is actually going to be the biggest help in getting us there? You know, what's going to push us over the line and get schools open? Allison, what do you think? You know, I start to think about how rapid testing could be a game changer. I mean, a lot of eyes are on college campuses right now that are requiring entry.

test for students who are returning. Basically, you can't get into your dormitory until you've had your COVID test and it comes back negative. Some campuses are even requiring two tests per week. That's happening at the University of Illinois, for example. And that's because there are modeling studies that suggest that this frequent testing, along with, of course, masking and social distancing, is what's going to be needed to prevent outbreaks. And so, you know, there may be a new emphasis on testing. Right now, it's far too expensive, way too much. for a K-12 system to take on. But as we get some cheaper, faster tests,

I mean, that might change. Corey, what do you think? What's going to really turn the corner for schools? I'm going to say something completely unrealistic, but I'm a romantic. I really, I would love to see the pandemic and public health depoliticized. I'd love to see public health take the wheel of the speeding car

and honestly kick politics. you know, out the door and they roll to the curb like in the movies. Oh, you are a romantic, Corey. I am, I am a romantic, but I just feel like we're in such a strange and unprecedented moment that we should be making these difficult choices for the right reasons. You know, if it is safe for schools to reopen, they should reopen because kids do need to be back in school. But we also need to understand and we all need to agree like, what is safe?

And right now, honestly, I think the biggest problem is safe has become the, this thing that is just in the eye of the beholder. And so, who knows? And that's why we as reporters and parents and citizens are all scratching our heads looking around and trying to figure out, well, why is that school closed? But that school's not. And again, what is safe? Well, that's a good note to hand on.

So I'll just hide in my basement. Sorry, that was a total downer. Just cuddle up down here, where, my kids can't find me. Keep trying to work. Thank you so much for joining me. You're welcome, Jeff. Thanks for asking. Yeah, thanks, Jeff. Today's episode was produced by Britt Hansen and edited by Viet Le. Burley McCoy, Check the Pacts. And special thanks to Alex Drewenzkus for the engineering help. I'm Jeff Brumfield. Thanks for listening to Shortwave from NPR.