Short Wave - The Winter Twindemic: Flu And COVID

Episode Date: December 14, 2021

The U.S. is approaching 800,000 COVID-19 deaths as the Omicron variant spreads and the Delta variant continues to circulate. Hospital admissions are up more than 20 percent over the last two weeks. But — as NPR health correspondent Allison Aubrey tells Emily — there's new survey data pointing to relaxed attitudes across the country, even amid the surges. Allison explains what all of this means for the coming weeks — especially with flu season getting started.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

You're listening to Shortwave from NPR. All right, so we're taping this on Monday morning, December 13th, and in COVID news, things are really escalating in the U.S. Allison, tell me what you are seeing. Well, on this morning, there is another milestone to process, Emily. The U.S. is nearing 800,000 deaths. That's since the start of the pandemic. And as the Delta variant continues to circulate all through the country, hospital administration, have increased more than 20% of the last two weeks, rising sharply in the Northeast and the Great Lakes region.

And as scientists are learning more about the threat of Omicron, there's debate on whether to change the definition of fully vaccinated to include a booster shot. And we're also hitting flu season, right? The CDC has warned that flu activity, quote, remains low nationally, but continues to increase. That's exactly right. So today on the show, we're going to talk about the latest on coronavirus case counts. what's going on with both Delta and Omicron. And how the flu may intersect with COVID this winter. I'm Emily Kwong. And I'm Alison Aubrey. And you're listening to Shortwave, the Daily Science Podcast from NPR.

All right, Alison, here in the U.S., we have two variants on our hands. Cases from Delta are rising and Omicron is spreading. So what can we reasonably expect to see in the coming weeks? You know, it's taken less than two weeks. since the first case of Omicron was detected here to find it in 25 states. And early data suggests that Omicron is at least twice as infectious as Delta. So if you look what's happening in the UK, cases are doubling every two to three days. In another month, 50% of COVID cases could be from Omicron.

And I spoke to Ali mocked out. He's a modeler at the University of Washington. He's working on new projections. He says if you look at this quick spread in the UK, it really is a warning signal of what we see in the U.S. Everything the U.K. has been through, we have seen it here three weeks later. So we need to be very careful and take it seriously. Even if the new variant is less severe, the fact that it's going to infect more people,

we're going to overwhelm our hospitals in winter in the United States. So you hear him there. He's concerned for what may be coming. But remember, right now, Delta is still circulating. We're nearing about 120,000 new cases a day. In some states, including Pennsylvania, Maine, Montana, they already have hospitals that are stretched thin. It sounds like we're seeing COVID surge in many communities. So to stop the spread, our state and local governments bringing back some of the precautionary measures we had in place last winter?

You know, New York has brought back its mask mandate. So has Seattle. Other places may follow suit. But without mandates, new survey data kind of suggests. that a lot of people are tired of masking and social distancing. Last spring, we were told, if we all get vaccinated, masking won't be needed. Now, with Omicron spreading, many people still unvaccinated. The situation is changing yet again.

But this just doesn't seem to be resonating with people yet. I spoke to David Lazare of Northeastern University. He's a co-director of the COVID-States Project. We do seem to have what may be a perfect storm this winter. We still have these very infectious versions of COVID floating around. But we're not really seeing in our data a hint of a spike in mask wearing or avoidance of crowded places. Behaviors are still very relaxed. Yeah.

The thing is, COVID doesn't care that we're tired. COVID's clearly not tired. But that's the big picture nationally. What is David seeing regionally? Yeah. I mean, behaviors are relaxed. no matter where you are compared to what was going on sort of last spring. But there definitely are regional differences. He says in Utah, about 35% of people say they're masking. In Maryland,

it's a little more than 60%. There's also generational differences. I mean, older people also are more likely to wear a mask. There are partisan differences that continue. And these political divisions we've seen can really threaten public health. Yeah, they really can. And the main message all the while from the Biden administration is the same. It's to get vaccinated and most importantly, get boosted. Is there any evidence this messaging is working? You know, the administration has pointed to a high number of recent vaccinations, 12 million shots given over the course of the last week or so. What's becoming clearer is that vaccinated people may be at risk of infection from Omicron. Scientists expect the vaccines will help prevent against severe disease and hospitalization.

But even if people aren't getting seriously ill, say these people are young and healthy, the variant could move through to more vulnerable populations. And that's why Dr. Anthony Fauci keeps talking up boosters, which he says will really shore up protection. He spoke about this on ABC on Sunday. The somewhat encouraging news is that preliminary data show that when you get a booster, for example, a third shot of an MRNA, it raises the level of protection high enough that it then does. do well against the Omicron, which is, again, another reason to encourage people who are not vaccinated to get vaccinated, but particularly those who are vaccinated to get boosted, because that diminution in protection seems to go way back up again. For now, people are still considered fully vaccinated after two shots of an MRNA vaccine, so the Moderna or the Pfizer,

or after the single shot of J&J. But Dr. Fauci says they're continuing to evaluate. this. And plenty of infectious disease experts say the definition should change to include a booster shot. Right. So meaning to be considered fully vaccinated, if you show your card at a restaurant or need to get into a business, you would have to have proof of a booster shot on that vaccine card too. Yes, that's what it means. Ultimately, that vaccine card would show, you know, two shots, the primary series and a booster. That would be considered fully vaccinated if they were to change it. Right. So that's the update on boosters. What about booster authorization? 16 and 17-year-olds are eligible for boosters right now, but what about younger kids?

You know, younger children are not eligible for boosters. And I'd say there's still a whole lot of work to do to persuade more families with children five and up to start the vaccination process. I mean, one disappointment is that vaccines among young children have stalled a bit. The COVID states data shows this. And right now, only about one in five kids this age are vaccinated. Dr. Fauci also talked about this on Sunday. I mean, certainly statistically, children do not get as severe disease as the adults. But if you look at the number of cases, a well over 2 million children from 5 to 11 have been infected. There have been over 8,000 to 9,000 hospitalizations and well over 100 deaths.

So it's not only good for the health of the child, but also to prevent the spread in the community. So Fauci's saying that vaccinated kids will help protect everyone. Exactly. I mean, with the holidays upon us, with all the family gatherings, all the travel, it's just important to have everyone as protected as possible. Yeah, it really is. And I've also been reading about the possibility of a twin demic this winter with COVID and the flu kind of converging. Is there much flu out there? yet right now? It's kind of early, no? It is early, but the CDC's surveillance data points to

cases rising a bit. Now, typically the worst of flu season is later, you know, January, February. But so far, they are seeing a bunch of cases on college campuses around the country. I spoke to Dr. Michael Young. He's at the CDC flu division. He says they're starting to pick up a type of influenza A that in prior years has been associated with more hospitalizations. And this is happening at a time when fewer Americans have gotten their flu vaccine compared to previous years. I do think there's a bit of what we call vaccine fatigue, and that's unfortunate. And it's especially concerning because the flu activity that we are seeing now that's just starting to pick up has been mostly H3N2.

And H3N2 influenza is often associated with more severe seasons, particularly in folks who are more vulnerable. including, you know, very young children, elderly people. Now, the current flu vaccine does protect against the strain. So Dr. Young says it is definitely a good idea to get that flu shot if you want to be protected against this. And it's not too late. And actually, while we're on the topic of vaccines, there is a vaccine anniversary I want to acknowledge. It was this week that the COVID vaccines were rolled out.

On December 14th, 2020, the very first dose was given to a nurse in Long Island. Alison, I heard that you had the chance to talk to her. Yeah, that's right. Her name is Sandra Lindsay. She's the director of critical care at Long Island Jewish Medical Center. That's part of Northwell Health. And she's just really delightful. She's got this amazing spirit.

Her story is she signed up for the vaccine with a whole bunch of colleagues thinking, okay, well, all to go together. So she had no idea that she would go first, as it would be the very first. And that a video of her and pictures would be shared around the globe, almost, instantly. So she was really taken aback by this kind of instant notoriety. And it was just wild. And it's been, you know, a whirlwind since then. Yeah, I totally remember seeing Sandra getting the vaccine, just the relief and like concentration, the self-insuredness on her face. I'm wondering how does she feel watching the past year unfold with hundreds of millions of people following in her

footsteps. But also, honestly, many people not getting the vaccine. You know, she's really optimistic. She says we're closer to the finish line than to the starting blocks, I mean, despite the fact that millions do remain unvaccinated. And she really has done her part to promote vaccine literacy. I mean, she counseled colleagues and friends. She traveled to Jamaica. She's done radio shows, countless interviews. And along the way, she says that she's learned a few tricks. One secret, she told me, is that if you're trying to convince a family member or a friend to get vaccinated and they're hesitant, she says, don't shame them or threaten them. It just doesn't work. She told me you've got to lead with love and compassion. You know, you say to someone, look, we're having this conversation because I really care about you.

I'm concerned. The virus is still taking lives. And I want to be around with you. She's so amazing. I mean, she's still out here like inspiring people. This compassion and willingness of hers to meet people where they are. It's an example we all really could learn from. And it's just more important than ever.

You know, coming up on two years of reporting like almost exclusively about COVID, just to spend a half an hour with her, hear her take, the sort of progress that she feels we've made. And just to feel her inspiration and her own sense of, achievement. It was just a really great moment. Yeah. I'm really glad you had that. Thanks so much for bringing it to us this reporting. Yeah, great to be here, Emily. This episode was edited by Jane Greenhalsch and Giselle Grayson. It was produced by Rebecca Ramirez and fact checked by Indy Kara, home on winter break from her studies. Indy, welcome back. We're so glad to have you. The audio engineer for this

episode was Stu Rushfield. I'm Emily Kwong. Thanks for listening to Shorewave, the Daily Science podcast, from NPR.