Shutdown Fullcast - 40 FOR 40: 2025 College Football Playoff Second Round Preview

Episode Date: December 31, 2025

WWWWWWWWELCOME to the return of 40 For 40, our bowl preview series where every bowl game gets its own episode and each episode is exactly as long as that game deserves.Who decides what “deserves” means? We do! Thank you for askingNow through December 31, 100% of proceeds from all PTKU merch sales will be donated to Trans Ohio. Visit preownedairboats.com to purchase BRAND-NEW BLUE SHARKS GEAR #EXCLUSIVEThis episode was produced by Michael Ray SurberFullcast theme 40 For 40 intro arranged and performed by Russell PowellFullcast theme 40 For 40 outro arranged and performed by MattDID YOU KNOW: Spencer and Holly write Channel 6, a year-round newsletter that is mostly about football, until it’s notBefore the world ends (again), treat yourself to Jason’s critically praised novel and other workTravel in your mind palace to Phantom Island, Ryan’s new show with Steven Godfrey, which is not a college football show because another simply cannot existCheck out Surber’s band Killer Antz and his new show Podcasterino

Welcome to the shutdown 440. You get the big welcome this time because we are doing the playoff. Oh, the playoff. That's right. We get starting off,

off Miami at Ohio State at the Cotton Bowl, the second round of the playoffs. The real games. Now that we've gotten the James Madison's out of here. Let's find some teams who might lose by even more. Speaking of Miami, right now, Ohio State is favored by nine and a half in this game as of recording. That's because Ohio State's probably better than Miami. This is my incisive analysis here. but if things were to go one way or the other in the positive direction for Miami,

here's why, because Ohio State, if you watch the Big Ten championship game as evidence, Ohio State difficulties in the red zone, especially for a team that has as many offensive weapons. If you wonder where Ryan Day's kind of bullheaded insistence on running the ball when they clearly have much better options went. It went between the 10-yard line and the goal line. Whenever that offense gets in there and is driving, for some reason, they get a bit stagnant.

I say a bit. They're still like the, I think, they're like in the 40s in terms of total red zone conversions for all teams. But they will stall out in the red zone. How you do this with Jeremiah Smith at wide receiver? I have no idea, but Ryan Day is talented in many ways. And this is just one facet of that talent. That to me is the only way that this absolutely stays close,

although I'm going to take a second flyer on this. Carson Beck was paid a lot of money to play at Miami. Carson Beck cost them two games this year. Straight up cost them two games by throwing a boatload of picks. He might cost them a third by throwing a boatload of picks, and no one would blame him if there were ever a time, for Carson Beck to throw a valiant throw the boat if he was going to throw the boat right

if he was going to throw a four piece or a five piece which he is one of those guys who was more than capable of doing that doing it against Caleb Downs and this secondary and this Ohio State defense totally understandable I would get it be more than respectable I like how you make that sound supportive I am listen I support Carson Beck because I support quarterback to throw a lot of picks I do.

I think. If you look through Miami's passing log for the year, game by game, and let's take Bethune Cookman out and just look at the FBS opponents. You will notice an interesting trend. Any game where they stay under 35 pass attempts, they win. Sometimes they win big. Sometimes they win close. Against Texas A&M, 21 passing attempts.

Anytime they have to get to 35. How's that go, Ryan? 35 attempts against Louisville, loss. 38 attempts against SMU, loss. Like, I do think there is something that they have figured out in the A&M game specifically, where they're like, yeah, man, let's just not fuck around and find out. Let's just see if we can win a game with 15 passes. That's not so bad.

We have cool, good athletes. We can get them the ball and just let them do cool shit. we don't have cars and be a game manager that's oh he makes too much money to be a game manager fuck that's like half of the starting quarterbacks in the nfl it's not a big deal just do that it's also you know miami's got money it's fine it's fine brian that's just a little bit of money there's just nothing that's fine he can we can put another Lamborghini to get stolen out of his driveway it's totally fine it was out of his garage technically but um they had wait it wasn't in the driveway no it was it was it was it was

in his garage they had the clicker like somebody had the the garage door opener and open it and that's how they stole it but that's okay you can get like three or four stolen out because miami's got endless money and it's cool and nothing's ever going to go wrong with them ever again cocaine's the other thing about this when you're talking about them Miami has the weirdest profile offensively because miami is a team that when you look at them and you look at mario christobal every single one of their analyst if you're like every single play-by-play guy and every single color guy is like, you know, it's a real physical team and they just want to run the ball.

Go look at how well Miami runs the ball. Yeah, they just want to run the ball. They have a deep want. It's good to want things. I like the passion. I like the desire, right? It doesn't mean you can. Miami, when they've been mid to bad this year,

it's because they really committed to running the ball. And they weren't very good at it. They are a mid-tier offense when it comes to running the ball. Maybe sub-mid-tier, 76 in the nation overall in terms of rushing yardage. Not far from actual mid-tier rushing team, Ohio State. I'm going to just let you run on a little secret here. Neither one of these offenses are that great. These are not great offenses.

They can have great moments, both particularly Miami when they work with Malachi Tony or Ohio state when uh julian sand can actually get the ball to receivers good things can happen but there's two things here miami is limited by its inability to really run the ball and maybe one of the reasons that cars and back might press and throw buckets of picks at times is because he doesn't really have a valid play action protection uh built into that offense and if ohio state struggles it's because they try to run the ball and they're not that good at it particularly at the red zone so I am hesitant to say Ohio State's offense is not that great. I will know.

That is not a great offense. They're very good. They're not a great offense. Okay. All right. Yeah, with that, I'll stand on that shit. And by the way,

part of that's definitional. Part of that is by design. They want to play as little football as possible. They actually don't like playing any more than they have to. And that's largely because they do this thing where they go, okay, now we're going to have all these snaps that we're, We haven't taken. They're all, you know, we're going to be completely fresh for the playoff.

Okay, cool. Go. My question is, I've seen you do that once. It'd be cool and interesting to see if you could do it again. There we go. Next game, first game of New Year's Day, first game of 2026. Organt Texas Tech. And the Orange Bowl.

The game in which the lower-seated team is favored by a couple points. big deal um very similar teams as far as overall storyline goes because when you say the words texas tech you have to say they spend a lot of money and for many years that was a thing you had to say about oregon they spent a lot of money okay so both of these teams that historically didn't spend a lot of money now spend a lot uh you know now they're up here with all the other teams that have long been spending money but you're allowed to say like Alabama's here and you don't have to say they spend a lot of money so like i guess Oregon is like almost kind of at the point where you don't have to mention that they spend a lot of money.

So, you know, apparently that's like 20 years you have to go through, but they're still not quite there, right? Texas Tech, you're in year one of this. Like, you've got to keep spending money for 20 years before people say anything about you besides how much money you spent. But, like, as far as football goes, main things about Texas Tech is really the same thing we've said all year. This defense is awesome.

This defense is great. It's great up front. Great of the linebackers. And against Oregon's offense with potential number one pick Dante Moore. That's, to me, the best matchup of the playoffs so far. I haven't looked ahead to potential matchups in the next round, but that's about as good as, you know, about as good as it gets as far as actual football on the field these days. So quite possibly best game. Bamma, Indiana Rose Bowl, you know, the bigger, more enjoyable hoopla, all that, but this

very well might be the best game of the playoffs so far. I'm legit excited about all the second-round matchups which is I'm sure unfashionable of me to say it this time that's all no I just want to watch David I want to watch how they're going to deal with you know Texas Tech's defensive line because Texas Tech's defensive line apparently 23 deep everybody absolutely amped looks like they've been injected with like rage hormone yeah just a very very two very fast teams I love the dynamic here which is this first quarter is going to be like it could be scoreless, but whatever happens is going to happen very quickly. Yeah, I don't think it's any kind of, going out on any kind of a ledge to say it's a really

good quarterfinal. Like even Miami, Ohio State, like, yeah, big spread, but Miami's defensive line. That is a challenge for pretty much any team to try to solve. Ohio State might put up a lot of points. I don't know. They're really great out on the edge. But yeah, I think it's a, it's kind of the thing, March Madness thing, where like, okay, we didn't get any upsets in the first round. Guess what that means? A whole lot of loaded teams in the second round. It's me. I'm going to the Rose Bowl. I'm going to watch. God, it really does go on. I'm going to watch Indiana play Alabama. I'm going with our friend Connor from Homefield Apparel. This is not podcast business yet. We will do podcast business in a

little bit here. We should do it right here. Should we do it right here? right now okay from home who's Connor and what is home field apparel help I'm naked get me some give me that sweet music podcast business what's the business podcast business business what's the business who's your business special rose bowl edition Indiana is the best in there really great they're gonna win every game the weather at the rose bowl is supposed to be trash it's supposed to be cold and rainy hell yeah you know what is here It's not going to matter one goddamn bit, because I will wear a jacket, a t-shirt, a hoodie. I will be protected from all weather, of all kinds.

The weather will never touch me, will never hurt my body. Not in the Rose Bowl, not anywhere, thanks to home field apparel. Armoring me against the elements, raided against... Of Pasadena. Rain and a little cold. Old ladies yelling about daffodils. That's right. Getting up early to watch floats.

Spills from Pyamberg. Oh my god breakfast taco um yeah homefield is I don't know if home field is officially gonna be at the Rose Bowl but I will be there with Connor and I think my most I have I will wear India something to the Rose Bowl because that seems like the right thing to do I will not wear Indiana something on the plane to LA but I will pick something and why not well I just want to pick something confusing to wear like if I wear something in the plane people would be like, maybe Tulane? Sure.

You travel two lane. You know, you could get a producer. The ultimate, like, I'm just here to watch my haters fail. Hello. You can triangulate Bama and Indiana and wear one of your many Michigan items. I think, honestly, the most confusing thing I can wear is Florida. Florida gear. Let's be like, who's this guy doing, going to the postseason.

Yeah, that would be confusing. I booked this month's go. I thought this is going to be a different season. Turns out. Not so much. I think if you were literally. They were like, hi, I'm Ryan Nanny. I'm a huge Florida Gators fan.

I just want to represent my team even though we're not here. That's right. That is the thing that would most confuse people. That would most confuse people. And I can do that. That young woman has grit. I can do that. Thanks, don't feel the peril.

Which gives young women like me a chance to succeed. That's sickly little girl. Really has moxie. Why don't have to be sickly? I think I feel fine. I don't know anymore. Because then you're more, you're more. you're more swaddleable yeah okay let's go get dandled thanks to homefield for swaddling my sickly girl body

in fleece and sweatpants it's sickly girl winner is this be lashing out because let yet another member of my own family confuse me and ryan on the podcast while i was home for christmas yes yes it is this sickly girls going to the rose bowl to get some pressure for these plurisy lungs i'm going to take the There, Ryan, Blue Roses, Nanny. Hey, what's up, fellow sickly girls? What kind of broth are we drinking? Fish broth. Only fish broth for me.

To whom were you pine for, sickly girls? Will you pine for the sallow cheeks of a Timothy Shalome? Or maybe the brooding glances. Maybe it's Mabeline. Maybe it's consumption. Yeah. Homefield apparel. Why, it's Grover Cleveland, of course.

The finest president of all presidents. Moors to brood over. Are the roses of the rose ball blooming in your very cheeks or are you taken with the fever? You know, when I was bedridden all winter, I just kept hoping that home field apparel would send me a bonnet that I could use to

starve my fever. Well, then, apparel, you feel much better now, see? Honestly, it wouldn't be that hard to convert a baseball cap into a bonnet. Thank you, Pete Thammle. Ha! Ha!

Ha! All right. That concludes podcast business to subscribe. See, see? Podcast business is done. Listen to any subscribe to things. Hey, Dick Tracy, eh? Yeah, say, see.

Sources, hey? Swasses. I hear Pete Gold is very excited about the performance of his team, say. The latest scuttlebutt on Kyle Wittingham. Yeah. Urban Maya kiss me on the foot, see?

What? Flash. All right, get us out. Back to the episode. Anyway. Get us out or I'm going to make it worse. The Rose Bowl is fun because it really is just about how would you like to... Do you believe in the future or not?

Because the future says Indiana should win this game. They have the better offense. have the better defense. They can win in more ways than Alabama can. They have won in tougher settings than, like, oh my God, Alabama won that. Fuck you. I don't care that Alabama won the Iron Bull against this crap-ass Auburn team. I do care that Indiana went on the road and beat Oregon in a tough-ass game. The aforementioned Dante Moore got shut down by the Indiana defense in that game. Like, I care that Indiana went to their first ever Big Ten championship game. and step the fuck up.

I care that they can run the ball really well and really aggressively for a team that has the Heisman winning quarterback. I care that they have a defense that can stop you in multiple ways. Like, the future should tell you this is Indiana's game to win, and the Rose Bowl, January 1st will be the day God dies. I will go to Pasadena, and I will watch God's head get caved in. But the past tells me that won't happen. It says that Alabama will do the thing it always does, and it will crush young dreams,

and it will crush exciting new changes, and it will take a wonderful story and poop all over it. That's what it will do. So I don't have like a narrative or an analytical bent here. I just don't know if I should believe in the promise of the future, which is Indiana football, marching glorious to a world of clean energy and food for all. or if I should fear a return to the horrible past where Alabama dominates all resources spews out smoke and acid for us all

and all we know is pain and suffering by the way we're gonna have some fun huh but I guess the thing is Ryan the the utopia is favored by seven over the nightmare so you got that going for you I would like the utopia to be favored by more I just wish that you could be a higher favorite against nightmare pain. Relatable. That's all. I'm not working anything else out here.

Just the game. Don't worry about it. Well, have fun, buddy. I am excited. I have never been to the Rose Bowl game before. Of all the years for you to pick your first, I'm sick. I know. I'm seething that I don't get to go to this one.

It's just lovely. Yeah. It's everything. Like, it is everything, every old timer says it is. Like every. Sure. It's disgustingly how they undersold it. They're all right.

They're all right. Everything about it is real. They're right, and we hate that. I don't. I love it. I think it's just funny, really. As a granddaddy, does it give you like 20 bucks? Yes. Because it's glad to see you. In $2 bills. Hang on.

Why is there a worthers? Worthers, Rose Bull, float. I am going to go to the parade as well, because I feel like you should go to the parade if you're going to do this. Oh, I mean, we forget the the parade is a much bigger deal locally than the game yeah it was not a cheap ticket I will tell you it's an amazing place to be high off your ass that leaves us with one playoff game to discuss that's right that's right we have the sugar

old miss versus Georgia it's the last second you think like it's surely it's done, and that it's not quite done yet. I mean, we can talk over it. I'm telling you, that gong, it resounds. This is, to me, the least essential of the games because we've already played it. We've had it. That's right. I think the gong just played us out.

I think that's all we're going to say about this game. I did. I had to, one thing I wanted to say. That was certainly the attempt. Which is this, that in a lab, Dr. Sabin made the perfect, defensive coordinator and assistant for all time he put together all of his knowledge and his wisdom into the statistically ideal body and voice of a southern football assistant and is a beautiful body yes and in that he created steve rogers of defense he did against weapon seven people weapon seven and seven peak old weapon seven be cold But over the time, that process became more and more diluted.

More like weapon sex. If you just made, like, if you made too many Kirby smarts and one of them became out like paper jam dipper. Like the Batman puppet team in America. It is the Super Soldier program. Yeah, there's barbaked. There were some oddballs in there. There were some.

And, you know, some were like a little less colorful or more colorful than others. But the most flamboyant was. We gave the Super Soldier's. to a sassy cat. Now it's P. Golding. It's P. Golding. Big fluffy, sassy cat. Pete Golding, who's given my favorite answer to,

hey, how are you going to change as a head coach? I'm not going to learn anything. I'm not going to change a thing. No, no, no, no, no, no. I'm not going to learn a fucking thing. Sorry for cussing. I'm not, though. Now I've got to change one fucking thing.

Sorry for the language. Business guard, same. Email address. Same. Park and spot. Same. This card still says Fresno State. I bought 200 of them. I thought I'd use them a lot more. Sorry for being green. I can't say what I think he's been using them.

When did we decide he'd been at Fresno State? That had been in my brain. And I just looked up and was like, no, he wasn't. It's fine. Nope. In some alternate universe, we concluded he was at Fresno State. I just think we have emerged with Lane and our collective of memory.

No, this is like, wait, I think this was even before he went to Ole Miss. Like, we just decided he was Fresno. He is very, like, he's a very Fresnoian. Probably because Haddysburg is the Fresno of, um, he's never coached west of, um, he's never coached west of UTSA, never coached west of UTSA. Huh. But he just, he screams Fresno. As I'm saying this, I'm sure there's a hundred listeners or like, actually on this date,

da-da-da, you said, da-da-da-da, so like, I don't know. I like when we, it's not like we've done this, we've done this. We've done this to other people before, but I like that we've done this to ourselves. Yeah, in my head, I was literally like, oh, yeah, his year at Fresno State didn't happen. I think it was because he's, because we decided that he was, uh, and I remember now, we decided his vineyards were in, right? Yeah, that was it. He's an amateur vintners.

His vineyards, which I later forgot weren't real. Yeah. Which now. Oh, those Fresno wines. Oh, now I've just, like, turned him into Cal McClockland, right? He has his own, like, he has his own vineyard. He has his own, like, day. dancing bear wine. Let's see here. Fresno wineries.

Wait, did Kyle McLaughlin also have wine? Cal McLaughlin has its own. Fresno, California's got wine, yeah. Fresno State has its own winery. Pursued by bear is the name. Eat shit schools with dairies. Yeah, that's what the V on the back of the helmet stands for. Vino.

Man, I want one of these Fresno State bottles. This looks great. Yeah, see, that's why we had them out there. And this is also why I have no confidence in Ole Miss actually winning this game because we seem to have forgotten that they're old miss they're playing georgia with time to prepare georgia doesn't really care about winning the game so long as they make you bleed which is how they win games ironically comes full circle punishment first point second um and then on top of all of that um

who's in charge at old miss it's a bunch of dudes who've never done this before and they're going into a really weird playoffs are weird the extended bowl season is strange it presents unique management issues. And lest we forget, I'm going to lean on the old wisdom here. There's still old mess. Okay, but counterpoint. What if they're too stupid to die? No, that's fair. That's Georgia. Like, what if what? No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Georgia is too simple to die. Georgia is, Georgia is too eager to hit death in the mouth. I'm saying, what if you're like, oh, who's, who's in charge here? There's no leadership. Golding's not, ready. What if they have eliminated all barriers to success? What if they have

have embraced koala mindset as we have brought up before? Lane certainly had a warmed up on that front. Yeah. What if, sorry, let me read the opt-outs list for old miss here. Coach. Oh, good. We're back. Okay. Yep. Yep. Like what what if they have just freed themselves of all unnecessary structure and stress? And it's just vibes, man. What if we're just going to vibes our way? Yeah, we look. Cleans at home for the same reason. That vibes against... Hey, that Rose Bowl turf is beloved.

We're going to wiggle our tutsies in it. We're not at the Rose Bowl. I forgot about that. I'm going to still do it. I'm still doing. What game are we on? Is this the sugar? Oh, I wouldn't wiggle my toes in that grass.

My favorite Fresno State wine bottle is the unknown clone red wine. Mystery wine. How long would be cool all... That goes back to the Super Soul's your project. No, exactly. How long would a koala last in the street in New Orleans? Would it be skinned or would it be made mayor? Is it charming?

Is it a charming? No, the wallas are not charming. No, it's going to be an alderman. Some koalas are probably charming. Again, painting with a broad brush. I think koalas are so helpless that they feel, it feels unsporting to fry them. So, like, you're going to take care of it. It's more of a fricacy.

You're going to be pissed off and hate how much you're taking care of it, but, like, they're helpless to the, point of you it feels like a like showing off that you can keep it alive you know if if your old mess just take the field with a shitload of animals they don't have to be thematic just be like look at that we got a fucking cockatoo on the sideline why because this is different because we because Lane Kiffin said we couldn't that's right Lane never let us have a chimpanzee that's right that that asshole you know also we have a dog that's actually ours now

Yep. All yoga in New Orleans is hot yoga. It's been this way forever. Don't act like you discovered something, Lane. Humid yoga. We've all, we've all slept on the fact that Old Misses like lost their coach

heading into a playoff. Like something old miss has never done before in their best season ever, their coach was like, dooses. If this were any any other, if this or any other program, I would be like, oh, that's concerning. But what?

No, man. Yeah, what are they going to do? Like, rely on leadership, you know? Like, why start now? Yeah, like, hi, we're Ole Miss. We rely, you know, our very competent nature is what led us here. I don't know what to do without the steadying hand of Lane Kiffin. What are I thinking about?

The only coach to ever be fired during a playoff run. Why would you want him around? The teen babysitter left. What will the kids do? You know what we haven't talked about? Lane being fired as, okay. Let's talk about, like, what are we, let's talk about Lane's trajectory for just one second, even though he's not here. We've had him fired as a coordinator in the middle of a playoff run.

We have had him leave as a head coach in the middle of a playoff run. The next logical step is LSU gets to the title game and he gets fired at halftime. Yes. You can do it. He's the only one. He can do all things. And, like, it's not even a which job would he leave for. It's just, like, that is.

really one of the very few boxes he's yet to check, so I assume he will. It's going to be a koala that you see on TikTok in New Orleans in three months, and somebody in the comments is going to be like, you feed it eucalyptus? They're like, no, man, we've just been feeding this thing zaps.

He's fine. He's crazy. He's thriving. It's like, like, somehow that fixes the koala. The koalas, like, has a personality and, like, tries to survive. I only mean 10 hours of sleep now. I got a job. Hey, I'm, hey, I'm the koala who gives a shit, thanks to Zapp's chips. I'm the koala who stepped up.

I'm the world's only koala who's aware it's alive. But not to feed this koala. Pete only step koala is actually a pretty... The koala with agency. Yeah, I drink a little too much. So what? But koala doesn't. This koala can house a dackery in two minutes.

Which is better than having to be like fed by baby bottle, Because you don't care whether you live or not. He won't drink water. Either do I. So, true. Kuala and I, we're the same. Give me a damn coffee. I gotta be in court in 10 minutes.

Pete Goulding, cigarette dangling from Limp, gazing at Kuala in the passenger seat. You know, we're not so different. Quala's like, why are you driving?