Shutdown Fullcast - Shutdown Fullcast 7.17: A Season's Worth Of Dumb Predictions

Episode Date: August 10, 2017

Missouri's got a future Heisman winner at quarterback! Oregon's going to the playoff! Tom Herman's about to turn Texas into Notre Dame! South Carolina's winning the SEC East! Minnesota's ruining Michigan's year! Texas Tech is going to have a only somewhat awful defense! These are but a few of the incredibly ill-advised predictions either you or we proposed, but now is the time to get them all out there before the season immediately proves everything we think we know totally wrong. Think of it as a cleanse for all of our dumb. (We'll find more dumb, don't worry.) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the shutdown fullcast. I am Spencer Hall, joining me as always. You know, Ryan Nanny, live from beautiful New York City. Hi, Ryan. Is it? No, no. You just have to say that. It's a trademark. It's copyrighted. What are the reasons people live here? I don't know. I don't. Because I can tell you what I thought they were. There's culture. You know what? Everything's on the internet now.

You can get culture wherever. You can have a virtual tour of a museum. Yeah. You can watch almost any movie from any time. Probably a recording of an original Broadway show if you'd like to. That probably exists. Yeah. Food.

Hey, you know, what's got lots of food? Everywhere else. You know where it doesn't cost as much? Everywhere else. Oh, but, you know, transit. Transit's so nice here. You don't need a car. what if you want to live in tall jacksonville like you're in jacksonville and you're like oh i love how it takes

about a day to traverse this city but i wish it was also tall and could block out the sun because and expensive like five times as expensive as jacksonville and and it's so tall you can go underground as well but also i'd like sometimes the weather to be garbage like garbage cold and dark and not yeah not like hot garbage even though oh you got that too but just maybe make every season bad and like jacksonville i'd like it to not have an NBA team great i live in tall jacksonville i hate my tall jacksonville you know who is can i make it can i make it worse before we get to jason i'm sorry sure i'm worried this outback thing's not going to happen if you're not familiar, Ryan, is negotiating, talking to, lobbying, attempting to become the

Blumen Onion, correct, mascot? You want to be the Blumen Onion. You would not settle for coconut shrimp, right? No, if they come back with coconut shrimp, they can kick rocks. That's not happening. He wants to be the Blumen Onion mascot at the Outback Bowl. And after some initial negotiating, after some promising contacts, I believe that that batter has gone cold?

It's just gone silent, man. And like, listen, I get that Outback is busy. They're literally feeding America, okay? They're doing the jobs that our mothers and fathers gave up on. They're nourishing us. And that's a serious job. And I don't want them to get distracted from it. But at the same time, I'm just going to ask your listeners straight out.

If you can tweet at Outback and the Outback Bowl politely, I really need to emphasize. I don't want you to harass them. don't want you to come at them. I just want you to just be like, hey, you know, a nation turns to you. Outback, how are we looking on Celebrity Hot Tub as the Blumen Onion? That happening? Just, I want you to sort of treat this like your Cindy Lou Who and Outback is the Grinch. And that sounds bad, but you know what? In the end, the Grinch, the Grinch has a heart that grows three sizes and he would need it to eat a whole Blumen Onion. You do need your heart to grow that that fast because you're going to need some extra arterial capacity i mean that's that's that's

that's that's that's that's required i think we need you all also to make twitter lists of and call it like places i might eat this weekend you know and you also follow chilies and o'charleys and applebees and ruby tuesday and longhorn um and who else who else you know all those and you have applebees in there and you tweet applebee's like hmm maybe you can Maybe you can help me tip the balance here. Yeah, I mean, I'm not too proud if another chain restaurant wants to sponsor a bowl and have some sort of, you know, if Chili's, if you want to do like a dancing fajita, I'll do that. I'll sizzle for you.

Sure. Oh, Charlie's, if you want to do a dancing. Dancing dinner roll. Yeah. Benigans, if you want to do, you know, I'm the big green cocktail. I think the only... I draw the line of Benegans. I think the only Benegans that are still actually in existence and really sort of thriving

are in South Korea? From what I remember, South Korea. I'm not kidding. I think South Korea really loves Benegans. This can be verified. Hold on. Yeah, so... We'll send Ryan to South Korea.

We don't care. I hear South Korea is awesome this time of year. Currently, Benegans operates 23 domestic and 39 international locations. Mm-hmm. And where are those? Oh, no! I can't believe the dynasty's dead! The operator of Benegids in South Korea has announced that all locations in the country will be closed by January 31st, 2016.

No! I'm counting six in Mexico, two in El Salvador, one in Panama, fucking four in Cyprus, Bahrain. Cyprus! Cyprus code! Crazy! for the Monty Frisco Yeah Cutter has two and the UAE

Dubai has one Yeah let's get that Bahrain Benigan's bowl That one of Dubai That one of Dubai is actually Probably just in some Amir's house It's probably just in one guy's house Right like he's just crazy about Benegans

And it's like can I build one in my house What's asked my accountant He's got it inside it's like inside His basement shonies Yeah His basement shonies There are four Benegans coming soon One is in Jackson, Tennessee

One's in Monaghan's Texas The others are El Salvador You're getting another one And Bahrain is uh Is getting We can't put a fifth on Cyprus Come on You know

There really might not be room So Anyway yeah Just you know Let Outback Bull know What the Outback Steakhouse corporate account know That just you're paying attention

That's all. Don't be mean. Don't be aggressive. Just let them know that this matters to you. Big eyes. Hopefully it will matter to them. I'm sorry. We can introduce Jason now after that five minutes spiel. Oh, hey Jason. Living in beautiful Kennesaw, Georgia, which is, I believe, has everything New York has without the costs. How are you? Yeah, we have a mediocre baseball team, too. I say that without any knowledge of how New York's baseball teams are doing. I assume they're doing not great. It doesn't matter. It doesn't. Remember, we were having this discussion. We were having this discussion about baseball earlier this week

where somebody mentioned that Mike Trout is apparently the greatest baseball player of all time, which is kind of like being the greatest telegrapher or train conductor of all time in the year 2017. The greatest numismatist. Saloon or what a saloon engineer? Accountant, the greatest accountant of all time. No, like, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, like, that's, like, that's, like, horse, horse, horse riding archery, that's, yeah, he's, the guy who throw, the guy who throws the net in, uh, gladiatorial games, net. Screw that, screw that dude, by the way, the lamest of all, gladiating is the one who's just like, net. Net!

Net man. It's like Batman's the one. Kite man. If you think about it, he's the original Spider-Man. That's he's the original. And that's why they had to redo him because everyone hates net guy in the glides.

Especially, let's examine this, by the way. Nets in the Roman era, people say, hmm, the craftsmanship of ancient craftsmen. No. Nets had to suck back then. They had to be awful. You could probably, like, poke your finger through it and be like netman you have the worst strategy ever i have a spear you

you know what that net smelled terrible i bet oh they didn't wash it no no no of that no zero chance of that right they're like smelled smelled like fish and piss yeah yeah well everything smelled pretty bad right like i don't know if you've ever watched the uh watched you know hercules or if you've ever watched any gladiator shows they're uh they're you know they're typical like wow there's this big room full of hot sweaty guys and the empress is walking through them looking admiringly and that's not how it was that place that place stank like a stable and we're walking through like oh man just just like new york city just like new y we brought it back around didn't wait we tonight on the full cast i'm gonna say tonight because time

isn't real and you're probably listening to this at night sure you have no evidence for that but Go with that. Yeah. I'm going to suggest that the shame of listening to this podcast means you're listening. The busiest time is 7 a.m. People listen on the way to work. I don't know why. I guess to get the worst part of their day out of the way.

But if you're listening to this, I think that you are spiritually, you are in a night mode. Just pretend you just watch a terrible Pac-12 game. Exactly. So we're bringing you down from that. We're going to examine a. couple of, more than a couple of indefensible hot 2017 season prediction takes, submitted by our readers, because we're, we're not short on them, but you probably heard most of them, right? I'm good for, I'm good for at least five insane guesses that never happen, right?

Right. For instance, I'll pick Washington to win the national title every year. It'll just happen. I'll be like, yeah, Washington, why not? I mean, one year I'll be right, in theory. Or you won't. or you'll never be right, or your life will be a collection of wrong. That's, well, in keeping with a theme, yeah.

Sorry. But, but I'm good for that. Ryan, I mean, you do have one. I know for all of your universal pessimism and negativity about the future, you have to have at least one prediction for what will happen. Yeah, oh, I always, I am the king, and I was discussing this the other day, that I'm the king of, like, you asked me to predict a college football playoff four, and I guarantee you I will give you a team that finishes below 500.

Like, a couple years ago, I was like, yeah, Georgia Tech coming off a nine-win season, really like what they're doing, boom, crater. Like, I, oh, Auburn, you know, I think they've got to go. Nope, Auburn going to play like, so this year, who is that team going to be? um shit let's go oklahoma like oklahoma you're my pick to make the playoff you're you're gonna finish five and seven i'm sorry i did this to you i like this by by the way is anyone pointed out that the entire state of oklahoma is in the state of in the hands of like ancient tradesmen because they have mason rudolph and baker mayfield i mean look at that we got we got ourselves

like the beginnings of a village in the game of civilization oh you is like already a step ahead. Fishmonger Callahan comes in a quarterback. It's never a bad idea. Like we had Big 12 names and we'll probably do like at least another three posts that are just absolute shit posts where we list Big 12

QB names because you can make them all day long. It's very easy to just pick a tradesman right? That's true. Cooper. I mean, Alabama had a Cooper. Cooper Bateman. That's like double tradesman. Is that a trade? Is that a trade? Do you coop? Yeah, no, Cooper.

Yeah, Coopers make barrels, I think. Yeah, they were barrel makers. Yeah, so Cooper, Cooper. I'd rather go by barrel maker if you ask me. Barrelmaker Bateman. Dozer? Hell yeah. I feel like Dozer can be a name.

Yeah, no, it's already a thing in Oklahoma once. So, yeah, you could totally have that. Jason, do you have any initial hot takes that we could just get out of the way before we get to our readers, far superior hot takes? we've gone through all of them bit by bit during this series and just looking at the board I mean

I've hit my Wake Forest beating Louisville USC losing to Notre Dame you know just weird stuff like that let's recap first you know as usual we did our predicted picks or predicted finishes for the powerful

teams and we did this without any regard to how math actually works so much of what we say is probably impossible and we don't care but we also did this without regard to what this would look like nationally I mean every time we go through a division we just look at that division we just say what is this team going to finish and we don't necessarily think about okay what does that leave us for a playoff so Jason have you pulled together what our accidental college football playoff looks like right now? Yes, so we had four teams going 11 and 1, and when I say going, I mean Spencer and I agreeing on 11 and 1.

Ohio State is one. Oklahoma is another. USC is another, and Washington is the other. You see, Florida State, Spencer did not want to give a prediction. so they're out. Right. And I believe he said 10 and 2 at some point. Alabama, no one wanted to talk about them at all, so they're out too.

Right. So somehow the PAC 12 has gotten two teams in and the SEC is out. The SEC and the ACC have no believe. The last two conferences with champion, the last two national title conferences are out. And based on the schedules, I think. Ohio State probably has the edge just in terms of schedule strength since that's the only thing to go on

plus if the Oklahoma game is at home then that's a win over another playoff team and then from there the other three could mix them up however you want. So there's your playoff. So what I also like about this is it ignores the fact that if USC and Washington both finish 11 and 1

they will play each other unless somebody else in that division is undefeated but presumably they would play each other in the Pac-12 championship game. And what we are saying is that that game is just for seating. Yeah, yeah. That game is just to see whether you get to avoid Ohio State or not. Or just play a rematch. Let's just do a rematch.

Let's just do in the playoff. Let's do USC versus Washington and Ohio State versus Oklahoma. Both of them rematches. And meanwhile, Bama and Florida State can go play in the Cotton Bowl, a rematch. good you know that's how it's going to work out right either that or the pack 12 just becomes something like Washington state versus Arizona state if with two Colorado again yeah two eight and four teams that both falls to FCS schools right it'd be like it'd be like a nine and seven Stanford Stanford Stanford how did you play 16 games we're just very busy we're very diligent very just uh we work hard of what we do we get here early we don't leave till late So already we have the boldest take Because I've looked through a lot of what people sent us on Twitter

And nobody had anything quite as dumb as The SEC and the ACC get shut out And the Pac-12 gets two teams in Proud of me, James. Yeah Oh my God But imagine it Imagine the anguish

The torment that would result Quite a bit Especially because this means we would be playing a national championship in Atlanta and we would have the closest conceivable team would either be Ohio Cedar, or Oklahoma. Let's set it up so we could possibly have USC versus Washington in the national title.

I was going to say, can we move this even further out? That'd be great. Can we get two teams that don't, like, do you want two teams that will never show up? Florida. Let's get Florida and USC or Florida. Washington in the national title

Florida fans are like I don't know I had boat repairs can't afford can't afford to come to the game sorry that UMass Hawaii game let's just reroute that one great so with that

man I don't know I don't know where you want to start with some of these really insane predictions we got I got one that's the one that sounds crazier to me go for it from The North remembers Dr. Doe Stacks on Twitter, Texas Tech Top 100 defense.

That's crazy. That's crazy, talk. That's, yeah, man. When is, I mean, I'm going to assume that we're not talking like a Bill C numbers, and we're just, let's just say this is going to be, what, yards per play? Let's do yards per play. So last year, looking at 126, so this would represent a slick, 126. um that that itself was a fall from the year before where they were 122 and the year before that they were 106 so this would so uh i'll keep going uh go okay so we if we go back to 2013 that uh that year they finished 50th but if you're just looking at the last three seasons which by definition nobody on that 2013 team that played will be playing

for you now, barring like a medical red shirt or something, yeah, you would have to reverse a very precipitous course that wasn't even achieving this to start with. You could have massive improvement and still not crack double digits. This is why I'm really glad that Pat Mahomes went to the Kansas City Chiefs because people go, I don't know, we're going to protect a young quarterback. And I'm like, he's used to it. Doesn't matter. you know we want the defense to really take care of him don't worry about it he doesn't even

understand the concept put him out there he's going to have to throw the ball he's going to have to throw the ball 40 times a game i'm like he was doing that when first down stopped and he was throwing 80 passes a game doesn't matter throw him out there it's texas tech nothing matters this is impossible right this can't happen no it's not happening no nope nope nope nope no I mean, if it does, because it's Texas Tech, it will be paired with the offense just falling off a cliff. And, like, if we're using raw numbers and yards per play is a, it's a reasonably fair raw number, at least it accounts for pace. Hey, you got to play Arizona State in Houston and you're not in conference. That's not going to help.

You got to play Eastern Washington, which has been a pretty solid offensive team in years past. the yeah um i mean i'll be glad if they're top 120 yeah man if they get if it's 110 let's aim for one 10 boys listen if they're top if they're top 130 out of 130 that's something so they don't get relegated so to give one more so this is the team um these are the teams that were 98 through 100 last year U-TEP, UMass, and Ole Miss. So it's a little different when you say, can't you have a defense as good as UMass? But here's, all right, here's the other thing I'll say.

Because these are all, none of these are like qualitative rankings. They're just sort of where you line up. There is a path where Texas Tech winds up top 100, but it's not because they're better it's because a bunch of teams got super bad and so that's the only path where i see this happening where it's just like oh no uh tennessee's giving up 800 yards a game pit you've somehow gotten far worse kansas missouri and these are teams that maybe are incapable of that but and like like oh no clemson had 50 players suspended 50 of them you just need so many teams to be bad. So

many. So speaking of unwatchable things, I would like to start with another one here. The first one I would like to do is from Ham Knight. I love this name. I love that. Ham Knight. Hold on. Is it Knight with an N or a K?

No, I think it's N. And I think that's better because it's like, Ham Knight. Everybody is I like both. I like both versions. As opposed to like, you old ham night. No, this is like ham night. Ham night in Jackson, Mississippi.

I like Ham Knight with a K because it suggests like a theme restaurant that's not trying very hard. I was thinking about a salad. We were thinking ham. And you could have Ham Knight at the Ham Knight. Hey, y'all come on down in the ham night. It's Ham Knight. I'm a member of the Ham Nights, Tallapoose, Alabama. You know, we are a civic organization. It's like the shriners, the hungry shriners.

Yeah, we wear edible fezzes. We promote fellowship in the bucket. Yeah. We provide a scholarship, but it's only in Dorito form. Yeah, I mentioned Alabama because at T underscore Astrigal suggests that, and I quote, Alabama will be interesting to watch. I do think this is actually true. I do.

Not maybe for the reasons you would expect, because, I mean, we are replacing Lane Kiffin, and I'm not saying this with any trace of irony or sarcasm. But that's not easy. You don't just replace Lane Kiffin, man. You don't replace an aggressive, offensive mind that somehow managed to change the way things are done at Alabama with, like, some Schlep from the Patriots? No. No, this will look.

different in addition to that if i could just make things slightly more interesting for alabama slightly who's their quarterback right now still jailing hurts that that's correct that's correct um who did they go hard on this season to recruit him that would be hawaii star tua t t t t yeah two a t's we call them tago viola oh a sweet T. Sweet, yeah, that's what, okay, I'll sway tea there. I mean, this is one of two teams that could have kind of an unexpected quarterback controversy of Jalen Hertz is to struggle at all, and being a young quarterback under

slightly new management, that's very possible. It's not, you know, mind you, I don't think that the dysfunction results in anything like a collapse on the year. They're still so good and so deep that on autopilot, they can win eight games. right particularly in SEC West where a few things happen this offseason right but offensively they managed to actually fight their way out of some games last year and the previous year and had to so there's little you know like you don't want to be the person who says Alabama's dynasty's over because that's been wrong it's been wrong for you know what ever since like Texas A&M beat them

with Mansell right like ah it's over no no more more beatings will will follow right until morale improves but they're just little little cracks little stressors that you can kind of look on it's been a while since they turned over their offensive staff like this so it's at least worth keeping an eye on until the inevitable happens the talent kicks in and we all have to watch them be really good again the florida state game is going to be what proves that this is right or wrong because look at the rest of the schedule and tell me where else it's going to come. Yeah. Because I don't see.

I mean, no. I mean, to me, okay, you're losing Lane Kiffin that makes your offense more boring. That also makes the sideline less entertaining. Think about, you know, last year the Western Kentucky game, it produced memes because Sabin was, quote, chewing Kiffin's ass on the sideline. You know, and you had Jonathan Allen coming out and saying, our best. biggest joy in life was getting kiffin yelled at and jonathan allen's gone too so there go your two most entertaining figures you know and they're replaced in part by a dude from the nfl no no bam ain't interesting the patriots the most NFL of all NFL yeah the guy the people that you hire

based strictly on i don't know associative excellence you're like wow it was really close to that guy will ever hire a coach because that coach used to be a Nick Saban assistant like we're going to try and get some of that Bama to rub off on us like wait what it'll happen give it time um all right we'll stay SEC with this one this is from Chase Harding at C-Talo H3 South Carolina will beat Clemson win the east and play a fun competitive game against Bama and the SEC Championship game. Let's take these in order. South Carolina will beat Clemson.

Maybe. I mean, is that funny? Yes, that's funny. That would be very funny because I know how it's going to happen, too. Final score, 13.10. Yeah, yeah. With none of the 13 coming from offensive touchdowns. That's right.

Like Bentley, Bentley will, like, get all of the credit in a game. where he does nothing, where he threw his like seven passes. Two field goals and a fumble return. That's what it'll be. We played ball control. So I'm going to say that this is the second, this is the middle likelihood of these three. Win the east? You know what?

I'll put that at the top. That's the most likely because the east is, sure, why not South Carolina winning the SEC East. Would that be, like, truly shocking to anybody at this point? No. I like the idea of just, let's just say every team in the SEC East has a one-seventh chance. They're just all equal. It's, it's kind of like fighting over which monopoly piece you start with. It's like, it doesn't matter.

It's all just going to be about how the bones roll. See, this is, this is where I get really heavy on Kentucky for a couple of reasons. One, humor. Two, Bob Stoops just retired. and Mike is, you know, along for the ride. This is where Mark takes the big piece of chicken at the Stoops dinner table, right? This is where, this is where, like, Bob stands up to carve the turkey and Mark. I'm sleeping on the top bunk this year.

That's it. You're going to have to smell my farts now, Bob, because I sleep in the big bed. Like, yeah, that's, this is where they let him up in the treehouse, finally. Stoop's family treehouse. I mean, I'm not like, I'm not like. I'm not going to come out here and say, yeah, pick South Carolina to win the East. But of these three, sure, the least likely is fun competitive game against Bama in the SEC championship game, because those two are diametrically opposed.

If South Carolina plays a competitive game against Bama in the SEC championship game, it will be terrible. I could see, what if you did like three-minute quarters, like you're playing NCAA? Because then it could be fun and competitive, because it would be fun and competitive. because it would be fun because it'd be short it will be like no no man it will be like watching two people who just got woken up and have never run before run a marathon why you know that would be competitive it would not be fun yeah you know the 40% rule you're familiar with that it's you know navy seals are like when you think you're done you've actually only done 40% right those people

running would get like three miles in and be like oh god i can't do anymore and they're like you're only 40% done and you're still not going to finish that's you have a ways to go that's what this would look like i already don't want to watch the c c championship game i definitely don't want to watch it if it's south carolina alabama well this one made me laugh out loud when i was reading through them from tim betner i believe is the pronunciation the at handle is Timmer B five words Mark Dantonio to Ole Miss

And I like this Because it's like You got in trouble And now here We had to tell your father And here he comes He's going to come and sit you down and give you a long Talk with like 19 words in it

This is the film The Substitute Where you're like, these kids are out of control We need to bring in a military man to beat up Mark Anthony. Yeah, and he's just going to sort of... Well, all right, we can work our way through this. I mean, he played at South Carolina. SEC ties.

He's from Texas. He's... His teams are very boring, and that's kind of what Ole Miss could use right now. Just a nice, nice, boring couple years. Sure. They perform well with a chip on their shoulder, right? He doesn't take jokes well.

Hey, you want to see MSU go three and nine, don't you? Well, I got the guy to hire. O Miss, wouldn't you like to see MSU driven into the dirt? I'm just kidding. Coach, don't come yell at me. Sure. You know what? Why not?

Let's, this would be wonderful for everyone. We discussed this possibility, and it's not, like, it'll sound crazy when we say it, but Garrett Mueller is throwing out at M-U-1-1-E-R on Twitter. 11 in all caps, by the way. I'm going to say, it's all-caps. I'm going to give you the all-caps. Ready? 11-1, Oregon!

Oh, my God. Which, I mean, that's a, whew, that's brisk, but I will tell you this, offensively. The talent is there for 11 and 1. Defensively, you got 1 in you. So you might, on the theory that they could not be any worse than last year defensively, and based with that, I'm not saying 11 and 1 can happen. But, you know, by percentages, you're within the standard deviation or two of that, right? Like, I believe we ultimately decided that like 8 and 4, 9 and 3 is totally possible, correct?

Yeah. And once you take out the hoke factor, the defense. is more like 4 and 8 so where's Brady Hoke now where is he by the way he's at the University of Tennessee

yeah so remember when we said that one out of seven chance at winning for everybody involved in the SEC East is a good calculation we dial that down a little bit for one particular team they can't go 11 and 1 that's absurd

I'm saying it's not completely untrue it's not it's not the dumbest prediction you can make it's not the silliest thing you people sent us i mean it was it was easier before um one of their one of their starting uh wide receivers plet out a DUI and now plays for a different pack 12 team so huh that's fun huh you try are you trying to say that a team will just take a transfer no matter what he's done yeah but it was Utah which was the confusing part well let's put it this way. It's very difficult to get drunk in Utah. It's the safest place for everyone involved.

I'm looking at the schedule now, and maybe it's not that crazy. I'm telling you, it's not, no, the optimism is not crazy, right? The number might be crazy. The optimism is not. Well, can we bump Ohio State out of our playoff and get Oregon in there, three pack 12 teams? No, let's settle it this way. Whoever wins the Ohio State Oklahoma game, they get a And then the other three spots are all Pac-12 teams. That is fair. And Oregon at 11-1 would lose to Washington, would lose out to Washington and 1 for the Pack 12 Championship spot because obviously their one would be to Washington.

And so they're in the playoff with the extra benefit of a week extra rest. Everything's coming up Oregon in this scenario. National champion Oregon Ducks. There it is. see you gave us something dumb and we made it dumber easy um all right this is from nathan at nestee with uh four e's on twitter the terps your maryland terrapins beat penn state in texas and they don't make a bowl game oh yeah yeah i can see it that was in uh 2007 that was the thing they did they beat top two top ten teams and finish

five and seven i think six and six so um if they if they beat penn state and texas the first and last games of their season they will need to uh beat four of the following teams to get bowl eligible not accounting for the five and seven the five and seven academic entry i'm just going to listen to towson UCF minnesota ohio state northwestern wisconsin indiana rutgers michigan Michigan State. Yeah. Entirely plausible. You think it's entirely plausible that they wouldn't, that they would beat Texas and Penn State,

Texas on the road. No. And not, and not, and not beat, let's say, Towson's an easy one. So now they just have to beat, I'll just start out. Ruckers, Indiana, one of Minnesota, Northwestern UCF, Michigan State. The second part of the compact is entirely possible. Yeah, they can lose to all those teams. but the second part of that compact is entirely possible the first part in other words I think

you can take care of the house son but the down payment the down payment cannot be made you'll never get that okay so they'll never beat those two teams right although really like what do we know Texas is capable of at all like that's extreme disappointment extreme that's about it right we don't know people like um Texas Texas and Tom Herman Texas just keep saying that over and over again it sounds great it's very confidence instilling but there's no there's very few provens there

whatsoever other than it's a good coach and that money the university's got a lot of money that's it Penn State on the other hand I mean if you can't picture Penn State going 11 and 1 and losing it

in a rivalry game that they don't even want to be a part of I don't know man you're unfamiliar that is all on the table I mean that is that the Penn State Maryland game is one in which

we've already seen Penn State get out coached so James James Franklin's there to say hi and recruit people let's not let's not put this on him we know what you are

that's a CEO right there man he looks good in a boardroom incredibly rude Jason you got one yeah from Charles I guess the last name is Fragga, Fragneficent KW, Harbaugh will fail to win his first ever conference or even division title yet again

and still somehow be considered an elite coach. Not outrageous, and I think that is all probably accurate. But I don't know, I looked up real quick just a list of coaches who have won Power 5 division division titles since divisions became a thing. Let me run through this list real quick. And you tell me which of these coaches you would rather have

than Jim Harbaugh, assuming Jim Harbaugh finishes third in the Big Ten East yet again. Gary Barnett, Brett Bilemma, Terry Bowden, Bill Callahan, Gene Chiswick, David Cutcliffe, Larry, Fedora, Kirk Farrants, Todd Graham, Jim Grove, Mark Hilfrich, Jeff Jagadzinski, Paul Johnson, Jim McElwain,

Jim Mora, Rick Newheisel, Houston Nutt, Bo Polini, Rich Rodriguez, Steve Sarkisian, Jackie Sherrill, R.C. Slocum, or Tommy Tuberville. Any, any takers? Tubbs. Tubbs to Michigan. There it is. Tubbs to Michigan.

Tubs over Harbaugh, that's one. But isn't the flip side of this, like, how fuck can you not join this sad club? That's the other part. It's like, it's impossible to call him anything but an elite coach based on he has immediately turned around four straight programs, and yes, I'll consider the San Francisco 49ers a program and not a franchise. But yeah, I mean, yeah, he doesn't have the, there's no banners. There's no, no banner is being hung, and yet we have no choice but to

consider him elite, so we're in this weird position between saying that, but the proof requires context and nuance and it's complicated and like buddy popolini won two different divisions and win one rick new heisel and jim morrow went back to back new heisel got fired after winning a division jesus let me give you let me give you a pallet cleanser here one that is pure joy and one that while being defined as a hot take feels like the most right like the rightest most appropriate outcome. This is from faux Jacob Gambrell at that Gambrel guy. Not the other Gambril

guy. A 3-0 Old Miss beats Bama and Tuscalo interim titles removed as Matt Luke gets the head job. Rebels finish the season 4 and 8. This is 100% happening. Oh my God. This is the only way it can happen. They're like, Matt Luke's the guy for the job. Boom, you got Bill Stewarted.

no way they aren't going four and eight after that we're going to run the program his way ice cream every day y'all yeah that that that's the charlie weiss extension isn't it no that would be like that would be if he's like three and two or something starts oh and two but then beats bama

gets that interim dealie signs for three point two million dollars a year then he goes four and eight yeah that's happening this one uh this one comes from will ackle at whackle on twitter wisconsin has an undefeated regular season loses the big ten title game and misses the playoff for a two loss SEC team if you look this one actually feels like it has a decent chance because Wisconsin schedule man it's it's It's got potential for some interesting elements. They start with Utah State. They go to BYU, but, like, there's not a lot of meat on here.

There's the Michigan game. Other than that, there's nobody in here that you're like, oh, boy, Wisconsin really better, you know, get ready for that. Which means that it's entirely possible that they face a team in the Big Ten National, The Bigton Championship, rather, that they're not prepared for, not as good as can't hang with, which is fine. And then, yeah, I think this schedule is, this sort of feels a little Washington-y from last year in the sense that Wisconsin could be really good win loss-wise this year, but if they don't run the table and they lose the championship game, I mean, shit. if Washington had lost that Pact 12 championship last year, if the playoff committee's rankings are to be believed,

a two-loss team would have gotten over them, Penn State, right? Oh, yeah, yeah. So, yeah, I don't have any problem suggesting that this Wisconsin team with this schedule, unless something about it is scarier than any of us have predicted, yeah, they could easily do this. this is this would be almost too easy for them to pull off so you're saying when fAU pulls off 11 and 1 that looks really really nice for wisconsin yes yes exactly exactly it always comes back to lane

it always comes back to lane yeah i'm i'm almost rooting for it now just to see just to see what happens when when big 10 fans have to swing the car all the way to the other game because last year it was like Washington schedules bullshit Penn State got fucked to no we deserve credit for making it too why would you penalize us for playing in the conference championship game this is nonsense scoring margin is what matters most look at the scoreboard it's as if my evaluation of objective facts is only affected by my subjective interests in this sport Yeah No, that couldn't be

Here's one It's from Glenn Matthews That Glenn Matthews With Fs Drew Locke wins the Heisman Okay Okay Now he's not going to

All right Well he's a quarterback But But You should know a few things about Drew Locke Because I bet you don't Because who watched Missouri last year right um you have to know that uh their offense actually put up really decent numbers now they had to

because their defense consisted of a series of ornately produced paper mache replicas of football players who they hope will grow into real boys this year and you know probably will because again it's one of those how could they be this bad two years in a row especially with a defensive coordinator as coach it's just not going to happen but yeah threw for 3,000 yards wasn't untidy with the ball had 23 TDs right he was pretty good and and could be pretty good against you know in some really bad situations so drewlock won't win but he'll be really productive here's how here's how you know this seems wildly unlikely I am looking at a list on ESPN of of the current Heismanods, at least as of July 26th.

The favorite is currently Sam Darnold at 5 to 1. And you scroll down this list and you see, let's see who some of the long shots are. All right, we got Wilton Spate. He's 50 to 1. We got Derwin James. He's 50 to 1. Obviously, position comes into play there.

Keep scrolling. Okay, we got Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State. He's 100 to 1. We got White Mike. White Mike. WKU. 100 to 1 as well. But here's what really worries me. Drew Locke is not on this list.

Danny Etling is also at 100 to 1. Danny Etling, the Purdue transfer, who plays at LSU, the odds makers have said, yes, we think it is important to give people the opportunity to bet and win money on that player winning the Heisman, Drew Locke, not so much. Man. It's not great. That's rough. And yeah, Drew Locke, by the way, got fat on some easy competition.

Like, you know, through 23 CDs, you have five of them are against Delaware State. This is from at Pat X. Shea, Patrick Shea, which is Minnesota beats a nine. and no, Michigan, PJ flex everything greater than sign, Harbaugh's enthusiasm, unknown to mankind. And just to drive the point home, Patrick included a picture of cartoon Spider-Man pointing at Cartoon Spider-Man. One of my fair, weird Spider-Man is what I prefer to call him, because, yeah. So this requires Michigan to go 9-0 to start the season, right? Correct. So we're already having, there's already one contingency in there.

Eight, eight, no. They only play eight games before Minnesota, but... Right. So screw you for saying they're going to beat Florida, even though that's probably the game. Unless there's a hurricane that causes the game to be rescheduled. You always have to keep that in mind. Jeremy Foley's weather machine. So they would have to do that, right? So they have to go eight and O. They have to beat Florida. Yeah, Florida and Penn State are the only two games on here that should give you major pause. Um, they do play Air Force, which Air Force can give you weirdness sometimes, but, you know, I don't think that's one that we're seriously concerned about. So yeah, let's go ahead and say, uh, that we're comfortable with the eight and no possibility. Yeah. I will tell you one reason that it might be difficult for Minnesota to pull that off. The week before they play Iowa, uh, which if Iowa's going to do one thing, they're going to make you feel very bad, right? When, lose, Iowa will make you feel very bad. Because all they have are body blows.

That's especially true this year because... Win, lose, watch. Yeah, win, lose, watch. Merely think about in some occasions. Basically, Iowa is the eat this 128 ounce steak and it's free, where it's like, maybe you win, maybe you lose. Either way, your bowel is going to be severely impacted. It's where you discover that there's no such thing as a free 128 ounce steak.

You're not going to poop right for three days, and no, the snake is not a fine quality. Iowa football, you're not going to poop right for three days. I would, by the, but I would just say there is no fan base that would be more irritated by losing to a particular coach than Michigan losing to PJ Fleck. Nothing. What is, what, okay, so, so there are three possibilities there for how you rationalize it if you're Michigan. fans. One is you insist that Minnesota's a very good team and PJ flex a very good coach and there's nothing wrong with it. Right? Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Two is to insist that they cheated. Yeah.

And three is to insist that it doesn't matter. Well, knowing Michigan fans, I think we know two is in play. Okay. Yeah. Knowing Michigan fans online and on message boards and all that. Two is probably already being prepared. They probably already have dossiers on all their opponents right I'm gonna go ahead and rule one out I don't think they're willing to do that for no they won't be giving PJ Fleck any credit no if this does come to if if it comes down to a spot like I would just hypothetically I want you to start cackling at this hypothetical they're like and they're gonna have to measure it just like no but but flip it and it's Michigan trying to get the first down and they're like nope the ball is short

Minnesota ball Edgiancy is basically right on the line but not over it so we're going to say he didn't get it that's what we usually do game over and it'll it'll be bad and then PJ Flex post game speech will make it so much worse I just thought we competed and everything we just we wanted it more and we're better people that's all they'll hear anyway right I feel like it was a good game and I think both teams played really well

It'll be like, blah, blah, blah, we're better people. This next question comes from one foot down at one foot down, SB Nation's Notre Dame site. We did not preview Notre Dame football. We're not sorry about that. It's better for everyone. We didn't do mid-majures yet. Yeah. One-foot-down's question.

Notre Dame, or statement, Notre Dame beats Navy. Navy. Bill's numbers say that Navy has a 15% chance to beat Notre Dame. The projected scoring margin is that Notre Dame wins this game by 18 points. It is by far the hardest game on Navy's schedule, the one that Bill says they are least likely to win. You all got to beat Navy this year, right? Oh, yeah, because if they don't beat Navy,

than that hypothetical Notre Dame sweepstakes we've been talking about where Brian Kelly ends up taking the old miss job like yeah that's that's a I mean that's going the flip side is on on the numbers on Bill's Notre Dame preview there's only one team that Notre Dame is more favored to beat the Navy on their schedule and that's Miami of Ohio they the Boston College game should be harder. The Temple game should be harder. The Wake Forest game. The win probability is lower than the Navy game. This is the last Notre Dame home game of the season. It comes in

between road trips to Miami and Stanford. My God, if they lose two Navy at home, Brian Kelly might not coach the Stanford game. On Bill's numbers, I think he'd probably tell you you might want to bump things up by about 10% there. Because Navy's one of those teams is just impossible to judge for first because of Service Academy rosters and secondly because they're just good and better than they have any right to be. So like, let's call it more like 25% than 15%. But even so, I mean.

Yeah, still you should beat them as you. So they have played 90 times. Can you guess how many times Navy has won back-to-back games? I'm going to say none I'm going to say it has not happened I will say twice it has happened four times once in the past

50 or six once in the past looks like 60 years that was under Charlie Weiss and now Brian Kelly has a chance to join that club because yeah Navy won last year Navy has won four times in the last decade. If you let Navy get to five and six,

you've really got an infestation on your hands. You really need to do something about this. Shit. Notre Dame won this series 43 times in a row, and Navy is, well, they're two years away from pushing it to 500 over a recent stretch. Better not lose. Disgusting.

I have one, which I think this is also extremely possible. Like really, really super possible. It hurts, I'm going to say it, all right, which is at year two, David Wonderlich. Yeah, this is a good one. This is a really good one. Yeah. Curvy Smart will pull a Will Must Champ and go 11 in 1. in his second year, but not

when the SEC East. Don't ask me about the math. Don't ask me how the science works. I have faiths. You know, quantum mechanics says you can pre-remember things, right? At distance, sometimes you can have a

premonition of something that has not happened yet, and that that's actually by the math entirely possible. In this one, I feel something in the future that I know is there and that we're all going to hit head on. And it's this. Yeah, you can do this.

So let's review. This is referring to the 2012 Florida season in which Florida beat number 23 Tennessee on the road, beat number four LSU at home, number nine South Carolina at home, number 10 Florida State on the road. Their single loss was in Jacksonville, Florida, to number 12, Georgia, the team that had one loss itself to South Carolina, but obviously won the tiebreaker, and went on to lose the SEC championship game to Alabama, but it's clearly not in a painful way or negative long-lasting implications whatsoever. So for this to happen, we need Georgia to lose to an SEC East team that also either goes undefeated or loses one game. How about this? Florida loses to

Michigan and Florida State. Right. Totally, totally within the realms of reality, but which does not affect the SEC race. Florida Beach, Georgia. Florida loses to, let's say, Kentucky. Florida is now 9 and 3. I don't think I can make a loss to UAB or is that Northern Colorado happen.

So let's park it at 9 and 3. But so 11 and 1, Georgia loses the division to 9 and 3, Florida. Yeah. let's do this Kentucky starts the year with a loss to Southern Miss they lose their first conference game on the road

week three to South Carolina but then things turn around they break the streak against Florida they beat Mississippi State on the road they beat Tennessee they beat Old Miss they beat Vandy in their last conference game of the year

they beat Georgia and then they turn around and lose to Louisville and go to the SEC Chairman Jack yes going into the SEC championship with as little momentum as possible that would be perfect that's the thing is if if Georgia if Georgia pulls this off it requires them to do this against just some dumb team it doesn't matter who it is Florida Kentucky Tennessee the dumber the better I like South Carolina because we can also give them the

law tech loss now we're down to eight and four Yeah. Eight and four champ. Saddle them up. Then you have Georgia fans like, we got to join the West. We got to join the S.C. We got to succeed and start the SEC South. This whole conference is biased against our interests. I would interrupt, by the way, to say this.

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you're a werewolf in a southern climb. That's where you really screw up. Man, you know, they never thought about that, did they? Like... Nah, that's, yeah. It just looks uncomfortable. It's like, it's like hot, it's like being a hot weather

goth all the time. Speaking of goth, Harrison Emery at Harry Emery, um, his prediction is pretty simple. go four and eight. Wow. Look at the schedule and tell me it's impossible.

Your non-conference games versus Maryland at home, which we've already talked about the scenario in which Maryland beats you and still has a terrible year, at USC versus San Jose State. So we'll give you San Jose State there. That one's fine. Now you have to get three, but only three wins in conference. Iowa State will give you that. one. Kansas will give you that one, even though you've proven that that's not necessarily true

or fair. Texas Tech will give you that one too. You know what? We'll swap. We'll give you Baylor instead of Kansas. I'm not going to give you something you have earned for yourself. You've got to prove that you can be responsible for, you know what? If you can keep this goldfish alive for two weeks, we can talk about you getting a Kansas win, but not before then. Other than that, I mean, K-State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Dubvee. Yeah, these are all teams that correct your shit. Not afraid to say that. Yeah.

4-8? Absolutely on the table here. Will it matter? Probably not. Will it be hilarious? Yes. 1,000%. I believe we have a final one to really bring this home.

Please. Which would be. And I don't really, I mean, I kind of want them to be back. But it's this, it's that, it's Mark Amanski, at Mark Amanski on Twitter. The U remains not back. To bring you up to speed, the running gag being that the U is back, like 12 times in a row, Randy Shannon's third year or second year, like, oh, the U's back! No, they weren't.

They got a quarterback. They didn't have one. Man, Al Golden's really going to rebuild this, ain't he? No, Al Golden, in fact, did not rebuild. old this and that's uh this is the running gag bringing up to speed uh Miami not being back but crack out that schedule all right because it's kind of interesting when you look at it because is it easy no no this is this is not an easy football schedule at all because your your third game of the year it's at Florida State Florida State they're really good this year

They could be really, really good. You've got to go to UNC. That won't be fun. It's just not. It's not an easy trip. You get Notre Dame at home, but you still have to play Notre Dame at home. And Notre Dame could be pretty good. There's a lot of things that can happen there.

You've got to play Virginia Tech. You've got to play Pitt and Virginia to end the season, which I will tell you, not a cakewalk in any respect with either of those teams, especially back-to-back. So a tough, like, five-game stretch to finish, right? And then a pretty cakey start. So we might have, I think, the false signal of the U is back up until October. And then we'll see if that's actually true. Nah, the U's back. This is always the rebuttal.

I don't know, man. The U might not be back. Counterpoint. The U is back. No, the U. The U is totally back! Okay, you can do this. I know, I know. Carvana makes it so convenient to sell your car. It's just hard to let go.

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