Shutdown Fullcast - The 2019 Bold Predictions Game

Episode Date: August 7, 2019

As we approach a new season of college football, we, as esteemed members of the national media, have an important job before us: to embrace bold, possibly stupid, predictions about what is yet to come and spread them into the world. But we want to break down the distinction between "host" and "listener," which is why we have turned this honored task into a game that you can play as well! Go to https://forms.gle/gJH1TH9HhkkyUyQY6 to enter, and throughout the season we'll tell you exactly how much better you are than Ryan at this. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the shutdown fullcast, the internet's only college football podcast. I think it's time to put some things on the line here. I think it's time to make bold, preseason predictions. Bold. Bold. I feel like a villain in a movie when I misunderstood. Bold! Not a bowl.

Ryan, we have a devious scheme to make this happen, do we not? Well, we have a plan, and therefore, I mean, you know what happens when the full cast plans something. It goes awry. So I'm excited to see how this one will live up to that rule. Basically, what we have is a list of 49 bold predictions in varying flavors of boldness. We have some decidedly unbolded predictions, and we have some extremely bold predictions. And they are all assigned in groups of seven different point totals from one to 13, jumping up each by two points. The way this game works is Jason Spencer and I are going to go through, and we're each going to pick one item from each of those point categories.

We're also going to pick one bonus item from anywhere on the board. So we're going to have eight picks total. Holly is going to be the scorekeeper because she is smarter than to try and participate in this dumb game, which she got to watch us try to figure out even how the game would work over, I don't know. Would you say 90 minutes on Slack, Holly? It's been 130 minutes. It's been. No, no.

There was a point where we were, we were hashing out the rules. Holly said, I'm going to lunch. Holly came back. What's the update? We're still hashing out the rules. After which point I had a story conference with two of my writers that lasted the better part of an hour, which is how I know that it's been 130 minutes, and I came back

and y'all were still at it. I assume that this means that it's really good and solid now. Oh yeah, airtight. Airtight. And we definitely understand it and won't make terrible mistakes as we go. We are going to make this into a playable game for the listeners as well

and hopefully we'll track it over the of the season and see who's doing well and see who's doing not, et cetera. But we are applying one extra wrinkle for all of us, I think. And this is first step to see if I'm going to fuck it up. See, we are already at a dispute because I don't know if I remembered us settling on this, exactly. The part where we don't overlap picks? Oh, no, never mind. I thought you were going to say the bonus pick thing.

What do you dispute about the bonus pick thing? Is there still a bonus pick? Yeah, there's still a bonus pick. Okay. I didn't plan for this. All right, that's fine. We'll figure it out. Okay, so the way this is going to work, we're going to go from least spicy to most spicy, right? And we're each going to make our picks from the one-point category, then the three-point category. And Holly is also going to go through the other, the unpicked selections in that category and tell us why we're stupid assholes.

Maybe those two things will be related, but maybe they won't. You never know. sometimes Spencer starts singing bare naked ladies and that's why he's a stupid asshole Matt Span stop it how was that how is it getting worse how is it getting worse? So refreshing I feel ready to go okay I feel ready to go Ryan's upset Jason is a little confused I am beyond confused and Holly's ready to kill all three of us that no just you just me okay I think all four of us are in our national natural states let's let's go okay so we have we have predictions that we solicited from a number of sources from i don't know the headlines also we have some reader submissions some listeners

submissions remember we call listeners readers here because i have a brain injury plain and simple and we have combined them into seven groups of seven Is that correct, Jason? Yes. All right, good. Ryan, if you would take us through the valuations and how we're going to be picking them. Okay. I feel like we literally did all of that.

Do you listen? This is like the, so you read the book of Genesis and you read the first, you read the first chapter or two, and then it starts. And it's like, all right, so in the beginning. And you're like, what the fuck? No. You just told me what happened in the beginning. I really want to get this right. Fine.

Let's just start. look we're going to start with the one point category spencer you can go first which of the one point predictions do you want to take for this the 2019 2020 college football season i will take from the one point column hawaii beating a pack 12 opponent if you do not know um hawaii plays not one not two but three pack 12 teams they get two of them on the island they got to go out there Hawaii faces Arizona, they face Oregon State, and then they traveled to Washington. Y'all, they win in the Washington game. But Oregon State, at home, that's a gimme.

I'm going to just put one point on that happening. Even Arizona is kind of like a good variance team that, like, maybe, yeah. I mean, it's plausible, right? It's plausible. Yeah, so there's my one-pointer. Okay. If BYU doesn't make a bowl, there's a decent chance, Hawaii hosts a bad Pac-12 team in its bowl game as well.

So you could get four cracks at it. Devious. They could finish, like, realistically, if that's the case, they could finish three and one against the Pac-12. They really could. Let's give Spencer three points if that happens. The double. I'm up next picking from this group of one-pointers, right?

Yeah. Okay. I'm going to take Clemson beat South Carolina. I mean, that's probably a two-touchdown spread, feeling fine about that. Two, three, four, five touchdown. This is, this is maybe the least spicy pick on the board of all of them. This is the Taylor Swift division. Yeah, this is the like, oh, mayonnaise, let's get crazy.

My one-pointer, not like that. My one-pointer, speaking of crazy mayonnaise. I don't love your tone. My one-pointer is Brian Kelly remains the head coach of Notre Dame for the 2020 season. and we're going to have to pick a cutoff date maybe it'll be like through the end of the college football playoff yeah but i feel like i feel like all the way through then yeah i'll take that as my as my gimmee one pointer like the the NFL flirtation kind of happened last year and didn't really go anywhere i don't see i don't think he's going to get fired even if they have an unexpectedly bad season

when is NFL coach hiring day it kind of very doesn't it yeah because like they don't have to have it locked in by signing day or anything like that no no um yeah i don't know if there's like a good date so how about we see this if the entire contest comes down to one point yeah we have to wait till every NFL job is filled okay that seems fair that seems fair so those are those are our one-pointers holly can you give us the uh the layups that we passed on yes uh at one point probability we have Two teams make it to bowl season undefeated. No Pac-12 team makes the playoff.

Y'all, why is that even a point? Bama beats LSU. Florida beats Kentucky. I don't really know. I don't know why Spencer put that on here. Me either. Okay. Did he leave?

Did he fall? No, no, no. I'm just... Okay. He's been doing... I'm sitting here. I'm sitting here. shop in this entire time this is fine uh i put that on there because uh you know okay because we know

okay okay okay i will i will uh search the wisdom within and then i will know so is that it is that is that how a whole round works they got kicked off that explains let's just keep going we're the we're the first two picks in the next round so this doesn't matter uh okay so in the three point category So a little spicier here, but still not terribly spicy. I'm going to go with Georgia beats Florida. That's my three-pointer. I feel like as good as Clemson beat South Carolina. Yeah, I still feel like Georgia beats Florida is a pretty safe three.

Yeah, I think now we're getting into the point where it's not a toss-up at worst. or you know like Georgia might be favored over Florida by I don't know four or five six at that point in here okay so so hi oh hey everybody I slammed Spencer's laptop shut because he wouldn't stop doing other things and not listening to the podcast and I have to catch a plane at some point today yeah forgetting that we were recording from his laptop Jason and I plowed ahead so Ryan has picked Georgia beats Florida I'll pick Michigan beats Ohio State do we need to re-sync or anything or is this no we're just going to keep going buddy spencer you're on the clock okay what's your spencer what's your three pick uh my three pick uh is is or was the no big 12 team makes the playoff who do you think is the biggest i mean besides oklahoma who's

the biggest threat that you're worried about taking these points off the board for you texas texas yeah it does go against the usual forecast spirit of just wildly support texas no they're going 10 and 2 like every year that's right that's right can't make the play out of 10 and 2 that's a good point um holly what else we got in the threes that went unclaimed all right on the board which first of all what is this doing at three points clay helton fired can we pause for a minute now and imagine how much sadder it's going to be if they go oh and six like we predicted a couple weeks ago and they don't fire him because this is just who they are now? Just write it out.

There is a pathway for this, though. And that is that things are so messy in the athletic department, top to bottom, that Lynn Swan is out. What else do they have going on? That Lynn Swan either is fired or resigns or whatever, and they just have, like, a messy interim situation, and nobody's, like, in a position to fire, Clay Hilton. A Clay Hilton coup. A Clay Hilton coup. I cannot wait to find out that Clay Hilton's parents paid USC to get in this job.

Listen, we really didn't want him to coach Arizona State, so. Just put Memphis on your resume. You don't want to look. Lori Loughlin is Clay Hilton's mom. That's canon. Oh, okay. That's canon. Her skin care regimen is amazing. All right, moving on down the three-point column, we have El Asico going for over 45 points combined, no SEC coach gets fired, Lee Corso retires. Do we want to specify retires? Um, no. No. No. Okay. Let's just, let's just leave it there. Because I'm like, is he not already kind of retired dish? This is a living document. He's semi-retired. Okay.

It says retired and that's what I picked based on. Okay. Okay. And that takes us through three. Okay. So now let's up the spicy level. A little. little with the five-point category. This is where I think it starts to get interesting. Jason, go ahead. Okay, I'm first. So the first five-pointer off the board will be an FCS school beats a Power 5 school. If you'd said an FCS school beats a Big 12 school, I'd still take it right here.

Because literally most of the Big 12 plays top 25 FCS teams. That includes Kansas. Yeah, who, like, I looked at this and this was going to be my pick if no one else took it. This is, we all three agreed on that, but Jason had first, first dibs on this, so he gets to claim it. Yeah, because August 31st, James Madison plays that West Virginia. James Madison's real good. Go Dukes. August 31st, Nichols.

Nichols is pretty good, y'all, and they play at K-State. K-State's under new management and their K-State. What did Nichols used to be? Nickel State. Okay. Yeah. It's just Nichols now? Yeah.

Okay. September 14th, we got, we got Furman. all right and they're going to be playing at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech has issues every now and then

and they got a lot of issues this year and by issues I mean specifically like everything so yeah keeping eye on that because Furman's pretty good

in August 29th San Diego State at Minnesota I know this is everybody's real bullish on Minnesota going into this season is Minnesota in the FCS now I believe they're looking to make the move.

Interesting. Oh, is it the Dakota State we're talking about? Yes. You said San Diego State. Yeah. I'm actually looking at my notes and I still said that. Yes, South Dakota States, Jack Rats. Okay.

Yes. Which one did you pick? He didn't pick this one. Any of those. Any of those could go. But I did not pick this. Jason picked that one. That's a good value pick.

I'm going to go with this. So we have a couple on here that are Twitter. Twitter submissions. This one comes from Fekuk, this guy, aka Mamme Hilario. This five-pointer, all three Miami quarterbacks start a game this season. This is a little bit... All right, I will admit that this is potentially a little bit of a morbid pick because injury increases the likelihood of it paying off.

But at least last I have seen, when we all get the odds about, like, hey, who's... Here are the odds for who's going to win this starting job and whatever. Hey, you really want to show your family that you're bad with money? Why don't you gamble on this? Like, there is no clear favorite right now in Miami, and it feels like this is a prime opportunity for, like, Tate Martel to start, get demolished against Florida or something, or just decide he hates the team all of a sudden,

and now you just got to get two more in there. Yeah, like, I feel, I don't feel as good about it as the FCS spec, but I like the spicy, I like the spicy quality of this one. I have to resort to my third pick here, but fortunately it's one that's sent in by one of our listeners, so it has to be good. At UF. Mark 79 suggested this one. For five points, I will be taking a coach finally gets ejected from a game. This was, by the way, followed up by his suggestion that it would not be someone that we had previously considered. David Cutcliffe. I mean, it's always the quiet ones that when they go off, they go all the way off.

So, you know. Wait, wait, did Mike Raleigh come back? I forget already. No. I think he's on like three AAF teams and an NFL team and. Hey, he's just freelancing, making it work. But, yeah, I think this is what I'm going to go ahead and take. I can't get any bonus points for this, but if I had to suggest which coach finally gets ejected from a game, I don't know.

Can we throw Matt Luke out? I'm just going to, like, would we know if Matt Luke got thrown out? I was going to say, that might be purely a, hey, I'd like to beat traffic situation. You've seen it out there? bear okay so holly what does that leave on the board unclaimed for five all right in the five point category we have no big ten team making the playoff ohio state beating michigan florida beating georgia and tua heisman which is you know fairly safe bet there's nothing in there oh but we are headed to seven point category okay okay uh uh spencer

are your first up in this one. What's up, birds? Woo! I get to draft for my first pick in the seventh round. Seven point round. Fourth round. Fourth meal. For my first pick with fourth meal, I'm going to be taking...

I'm going to take Elasico, the loss determining a playoff spot. That's it. That whoever, that Elasico is definitely the outcome. here by you by here do you mean the winner of alaska was going to the playoff or do you mean iowa and or iowa state is going to knock somebody out of the playoff i mean that iowa or iowa state is going to knock somebody out of the playoff okay that's that's what i'm interpreting this to me not that either of these teams this is a living document yes these are never these teams are never kings but they can be king makers now now to be clear this is this is the fuzziest option on the board

and the one that, in theory, may also lead to the most consternation because if, let's say, Oklahoma loses to Iowa State, but then they also lose the Big 12 championship, which of those are we going to say, like, what is the rule there? I think here's what we're going to do. In the case of a dispute, all of these points and the rankings... Will be determined by me, the arbiter. yeah i guess so that's you know what all decisions are arbitrary let's just go ahead and make

that one i just i just realized we've made holly the arbiter and now i'm like a little tail like i got a little chill this this is the one that could involve the most lawyer in if it comes down to it holly do you have some sort of large blade instrument that you're wielding right now not in my hand within arm's reach it's no it's in the car all right oh man Then, okay. Gross. Ew. Holly's the arbiter now.

No, I wasn't. You made me this. I know. That's the terrifying part. Jason, you are next. So this has only happened once this decade, but I'm going to go ahead and call for it to happen again. LSU is going to score at least 20 points against Bama. Which, I mean, it sounds far-fetched, but Bama gave up more than 20 points.

I think half its games last year. And if LSU knows anything, it's half, going halfway. You believe in your son, okay? Yeah, my precious boy. That's a wonderful thing. Yeah. Ten safeties is all we need.

So, I know that Arkansas scored a bunch of points against them, and I know that... Mississippi State, I think, cracked 20? Clemson certainly did. Clemson did it twice. Yeah. How hard could it be? How many did LSU with much of the same personnel score?

Saving them all up for 2019, brother. All right, all right. I just remember these are findable, findable numbers rather than that's just randomly guessing. Nah, let's not look for shit. They scored zero. No, no. We settle. I don't think that's right.

No, I was very wrong, but Mississippi State. Auburn hit 20, Georgia hit 20, Oklahoma did it, A&M did it, and Arkansas did it. And Tennessee. Yeah, yeah. See, Tennessee scored points against them. Is LSU better than Tennessee? If so, take those seven. Damn, your logic is irrefutable.

Thank you. My seven-pointer, we're going to go to the West Coast for this. I am picking a Pac-12 title game in which no California teams are participating. Wait, that wasn't that long ago that we had an Oregon, Arizona. It wasn't that long ago. We had a Washington, Colorado, right? Yeah. so like it doesn't it's not out of the realm of possibility really the only teams that I there are two things I have to worry about

one is the South is the problem here yeah as as usual the South is the problem because it can be a situation where it's like hey four lost team with a bunch of dumb tiebreakers made it or in theory like Cal or Stanford just has like wins the right games those those are two very opposite possibilities but that's what I got to worry about But I'm going to go ahead and take it. The No California Pac-12 title game played in California. Can I increase your anxiety just a little bit? Go for it. Stanford hosts Oregon and Washington. That's okay. That's okay.

I feel like Stanford will find other games to lose to... Well, they're going to lose to Notre Dame and UCF and dominate the Pac-12, so... Look, it's fine. I still... I like this one, and I feel good about it. Yeah, I like it, too. Holly, what did we leave? All right.

remaining on the board at seven points. Kentucky beats Florida. Yeah, that's going to be rad. Les Miles and or Mac Brown make a bowl game. It would be hard for Matt Brown to make a bowl game from retirement. I have some news for you. What's up? He's coaching at UNC.

What? Yes. Why? What? Why? Hua. This is actually something on our off-season to-do list. At some point during the season, I want Spencer to call up Mac Brown,

and ask him how he's enjoying retirement. To start the whole idea like that. You ever think about getting back into coaching? Here's coach. Okay, anyway, down on the list of seven points, no Big 12 school has a coaching change, and LSU beats Bama. So the Big 12 one is phrased differently on purpose

than the SEC one, because the SEC one is no program fires their coach. The Big 12 one, includes the possibility of coach retires, coach leaves for the NFL, whatever. That's why it is in a spicier place than the SEC. I thought about pulling the trigger on this one. Yeah, yeah. But Matt Campbell's sitting there at Iowa State, and I don't think he wants to,

I don't think he wants to sit on the shelf. Matt Campbell didn't leave Toledo to end up in Ames forever. Yeah. Look, man, Cliff Kingsbury got an NFL job this offseason. Yeah, I'm not putting all seven on Mike Gundy staying. Yeah, like that's another thing is, you know, Gundy is like forever lurking right there. So I'm not real sure. Like crabgrass.

Or psoriasis. Soriasis, I think, is about because they're both red and angry. I like the idea that Mike Gundy is just perpetually about to go. You go look at his bio and the man's basically never left the town of Stillwater. And yet he still feels like a flight race. doesn't he? Flight risk is a great phrase. He feels like a flight risk because of the hair, right?

Yeah, because he looks like Sonic the headshot. Yeah, I got a coach with this ankle monitor on. It's fine. He's got to leave to do his filming for his live action, greedy reboot as tails. Now, Holly, the last one we didn't. Jesus Christ. Well, I didn't even say he marries Sonic.

You just did. You just said it. he does that's canon it's a betrayal of all fans that sonica tales aren't married holly holly the last one that we left on the board is uh the one i really want to focus on

because i want to i want to probe jason about it yep i heard it keep going stop that it's fine it's fine i welcome this examination so that one was ls ubeats bama jason you decided these are in the same category LSU beats Bama and LSU scores over 20 against VAMA. Explain to me why you think LSU will score 20 points, but you, and maybe you're going to use your bonus pick on it, so you shouldn't, maybe I'm getting ahead of myself,

but you didn't want to go with the beat Bama option. I had LSU beats Bama number two in this group, because I would expect the spread to be, you know, let's say Bama by 8, 9, 10, 11, something like that. that i don't think it'll be as huge as it was last year um you know score you can score 20 and give up 40 right at the same time if ls you were to beat bama it would likely be in like a 12 to 11 type of game so they probably you know you could definitely have a scenario in which the other one happens okay okay uh that takes us to the nine pointers jason you're up first in this

category. So this is my personal favorite on the board. Army covers 17 and a half against Michigan. A while back ran the numbers and found that the service academies, particularly when they are option teams, are fantastic underdogs against big spreads. The number I had looked up was more than three touchdowns. The teams are 36, 11, and 1 since 1995, which is an insane hit rate. This isn't quite that big but army is good um like a lot of these were counting like you know some one and nine army team managed to bullshit out of cover whereas now we have the opposite kind of army team plus i think part of this is not just you know um it's the offense grinds out time and it's annoying to prepare for and do you really want to devote an entire week to nothing but this when you could

just let your talent take over there's also do we really think jim harbaugh wants to beat up on the troops? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I mean, he, remember, this is a true story. He wins laser tag games by following small children around and just hitting them over and over and over. Blam! Blam! Blam! Blam! Well, I don't think the troops are small children, Spencer. I happen to respect them more than that. This is true. I'm sorry. I'm the ranking troop respecter here because I have them covering against Michigan. I will say this. That's a good bit because Army slow just slow doesn't describe it man yeah there's going to be like 20 minutes of football can michigan score that much in 20 minutes challenge accepted um that leaves so so i'm up next

my nine pointer and i got to be honest this is just that it's far away and i want to leave one laying on the board just in case south carolina beats clumson to be clear I do not feel good about this pick I do not have confidence in this thing I feel great about Ryan's pick but I just decided like

you know why not why not live a little with this I like that Jason you're the one who has Clemson beating South Carolina in the one pointer right yeah so this has like good swing potential for me Ryan Nanny and Outback

back redemption. Get busy living or get busy frying. That's right. We're going to fight out of Hardee's again. Why just keep happening? It's the Hardee's. It has a river of slime underneath it. That's what they make the burgers out of. It's the neurotoxins. Yeah, I have South Carolina beating Clemson for my nine-pointer and I already am ready to cross it off as a loser. Oh, yeah, this category, I'm choosing last, and the third choice in this category. All of them are some various form of absurdity or another. So I'm going to go big, y'all. It hasn't happened since 2010.

Fucking TV. Alabama loses at least two regular season games. My God. My God. Which ones? Yeah. And, uh... No, no, pick them.

Pick them. Imagine that fucking citrus bowl. Come on. Imagine some Penn State-ass team having to play this pissed-off Bama. No, no. No, no. Imagine that specific team. Imagine James Franklin versus a pissed-off Nick Saban.

He's just going to run trick plays. He's going to run trick-place. Nickle have fired the entire staff in November. So it's just him doing everything, right? Like towels over his shoulder, big bag of snacks in his hand. He's got eight headsets on. Who's calling these plays? All right, Spencer, I have one important question.

Do you think your bet is more or less likely to pay if they lose one of these games early? Like, if they lose in the first five, if they lose before October. I do not think it matters because whatever is wrong with them enough to get them to two losses in the regular season. It's going to be wrong all season. It'll stay wrong. Yeah, no, if they lose two games, which again, I have to bet on the, them doing this out of situation because I think it's the most likely. It's still not real likely if they do that.

It's because something is snapped or broken and they're just not jelling at all. Also, that second loss, they got to catch something hilarious, man. Like maybe they just lose one outright to like A&M or Auburn. But whatever that second loss is, it's going to be a guster. Gonna be a heartache tonight. The funniest back-to-back combo on the schedule. think for my money would be either South Carolina followed by Southern Miss or Tennessee followed by Arkansas don't oh god I want this so much wait why are we skipping over week one

against Duke because you got you got a losing streak to the ACC because if I think if they lose the Duke and New Mexico State we'll just start the gambling investigate we'll be like all right they're throwing games y'all they lose to Duke and yeah Spencer There's got the both SECs on him. Yeah, that's, by the way, if I actually, if I had, no, now I want to look at this. No, if I had to pick how it might happen. No, I don't want what it might happen. I want what I want to happen.

Okay, well, what do you want to happen for Alabama losing two regular decisions? There's actually nothing. I would do to everything that has happened everywhere, I would actually say that A&M and Tennessee back-to-back would be funnier than Tennessee in Arkansas. Really? Wow. Wow. See, I'm going to... Because they lose to A&M and they're like, wow, it can't get worse.

You don't... Okay. I've got... It's different kinds of funny. Holly, mostly what I like is if they lose, if they have a whole season with two losses and the only two are to Tennessee and Arkansas, but they beat every... They beat A&M and LSU. Yeah.

And they beat... Oh, see, I don't think A&M's going to be real good. Ooh, okay. Yeah, I... Better than Arkansas. We know that much. Oh, yeah. Everybody's better than Arkansas.

So to me, it's you beat Tennessee and we, you beat Tennessee and we say, oh, well, it's a rivalry game. To be clear, they're going to be Tennessee. You say they're, oh, they were long overdue in this rivalry game. It's had some close calls. Oh, Arkansas is going to, Arkansas is going to lose by 80. Arkansas's foot and then Arkansas wins. Now we're on a whole other planet. What is happening?

I don't think it would be, man, it's too bad that they, where's my bucket for they lose to all three Mississippi schools? Oh, God. Oh, my God. The Magnolia cancer. All right, Holly is not playing in this game, but Holly, if that happens, you win the game automatically. Alabama has Dutch Helm disease. That one is 50 points. If Holly, if Alabama loses to all three Mississippi schools, Holly Auto wins.

That's the food poisoning from a gas station chicken stick hospital line. I did not include my own team because we know how this is going to go. State of Mississippi's like, who's 49th now? Yeah. The actual most, the actual most plausible way for this to happen would be at Texas A&M at Auburn. Those are both road games. They're not in a road. Yeah, that's what happens.

No, they're not in a row. I'm saying two regular season, right? The funniest way for this to happen back to back, though, is totally Arkansas LSU. Because they could just be like, oh, Arkansas was a flute. LSU never scores against us, and LSU does something awful. Or they lose to Arkansas because they were looking ahead to LSU. And then it's like, hey, you lost to Arkansas. because you were too busy preparing to lose to LSU.

Also, if they lose at South Carolina, I will put myself on Twitch laughing on the floor, crying for 30 minutes straight. I mean, and you think it'll be... If they lose to South Carolina, I will drive to the stadium and just lay down on the field and roll around like a baby panda. All right, Holly, what are the nine-pointers we didn't take?

Oh, God, who can even remember? All right, UMass beats a big ten opponent. Nope. Boring. They have two of them. They play, hold on, hold on. They play Rutgers week one. And then they play Northwestern late in the year.

You telling me Northwestern losing a UMass wouldn't be interesting? So I was going to say, when are we doing bonus picks? We'll get, we're going to do those at the end. Okay. Okay. All right. I mean, here's the, because yes, this was mine. Man, I said, the reason I said boring because I'm like, you, you mass beats a big ten opponent.

But man, does you mass beating Rutgers? That's like an asterisk. That's why Jason's going to take it, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, that's very smart. See, the problem is you guys gave this to Bud to review, and he took all of it extraordinarily seriously. He did, yeah. For the record, Bud was the one who set,

who corrected the points totals. He's the official line setter of the shutdown forecast, and should be prosecuted as such. Okay, the second one on this list is my personal favorite, because I think it would be hysterical on a number of levels. No ACC team makes the playoff. This one, this one, because it's Florida State sidling up to Clemson being like you're down here with the rest of us.

I really don't hate this one because what if Clemson goes 12 and 1 and we're like, look at this fucking terrible schedule. And say SEC and Big 10 are undefeated, right? Okay. Keep going. And then say Big 12-1 loss, Pac-12-1 loss. If it comes down to strength the schedule, buddy. You think, you think reigning national champion Clemson is going to get bumped for a one-loss pack 12th? They did bump down reigning National Champ Florida State, not out, but they did bump them down. So maybe you take a little spot or two.

Down is fine. But I think, yeah, you're going to need one. All I'm saying is I don't hate this one. You're going to need another wrinkle. You're going to need an undefeated Notre Dame. It's different from like no SEC team because their Bama's got to be out and George's got to be out and all these other guys. Here it's Clemson or bust. That's the reason I don't really mind it.

Okay. All right. At the same time, Clemson's in. Okay. Thank you, full cap protest. Thank you for speaking up for all tigers, Joe. Further down, we have no SEC team makes the playoff. It's not even that funny anymore.

No. Sorry, Bama, you ruin fun and jokes. And the last nine pick, the last nine point pick. Now, this one was supplied by Bud, I want to point out. The last nine point pick is Auburn starts O and four against Power Five teams. That would be Oregon, A&M, Mississippi State, and UF. I am shocked Spencer didn't pick this one. No, because it's Auburn.

I never feel certain. That I'm most picking the Auburn, Florida game. I don't feel certain saying Auburn's going to do anything. If you said, do you want to put nine points on Auburn showing up for every game, I would not. Okay. If any team was going to take the bet that I had made and then make a ridiculous rebuttal of that, like, yeah, Auburn just didn't show up. Well, here's the other thing. They didn't go to the Iron Bowl.

If you took this, Auburn would lose the first thing. and then beat Florida by 20 points. Yeah, that's exactly what would happen. I would be so close to getting nine points. No, not 20. Three, three, on a 70-yard field goal, kicked by a kicker who's like a 60% guy from 30 yards out. That's how it's going to happen.

Not that you're bitter. 11-point time. Jason, you're up again. How am I first or second each time? I don't know. These are random. I just randomize them. Oh, okay.

Okay. I got lucky, I guess. All right. Yeah. Flexi. For 11, I'm going to take, at any point in the season, a team other than Bama or Clemson is ranked number one in the AP poll. I am taking this and I'm going to add lawyering onto it before anyone tells me it's wrong. This is all grandfathered in.

This includes the final poll, which means if any team other than those two wins the title at cash. I'm okay with that amendment. We let the text in. I feel like this has to be interpreted thusly. I feel like that. feel like now this value is over. Oh, y'all. Lawyerly throat clearing. You all know when the last

time a team not named Clemson or Alabama was number one. 2010 or so, I think. It would be Ohio State. Correct. Or 2014, right? November 11, 2015 was the last time. 15. 15. Yeah, and that would be Ohio State.

Other than the final, yeah, okay. So basically, I'm getting it might be an even money bet at for 11 points. Yeah, yeah, I do think if we limited this to before it pre-playoffs only, I think it would be a tighter bet for you. Oh, yeah, I don't think I would take it at that point. Here, I'm just betting somebody pulls one bullshit upset. Damn it. God damn it. All right, fine.

All right, so my 11-pointer, much less strong now. No, I'm going to audible on this one. I'm going to go with Urban Meyer takes the USC job How can you do that when he's resting up to coach Notre Dame? I'll just go ahead and I'll go ahead and take that one. It's stupid, but. Ryan, do you view his current career moves such as starting a leadership podcast

as being in, like he takes one look at USC's Aunt Becky situation is like that's a university that you use some leadership he's absolutely going to pitch himself as the guy who will clean things up which i'm here to clean up USC i want to be clear i think this is super fucked up and a bad idea if it happens but since when has that ever stopped college football or urban mire or u.s. wait do you think he's going to be hired at the job or do you think he's just going to show up and start doing it he might just he might just claim it it says takes yeah so we yeah Again, if Clay Hilton pulls a coup and Urban Meyer pulls a revolution, you know, or either way around, all that matters is, does it, so at any point in that, if Urban Meyer is in charge, he doesn't even have to keep the job. Oh, here, here's the wrinkle I'm going to throw in.

I'm going to do some lawyer on you. This includes if he becomes the athletic director. Does this also include, Ryan, does this also include if he becomes a head coach at South Carolina, the other U.S. No, no, I won't put that in there. I mean, this just says... I mean, him and Mustamp have traded jobs before. They have, I just, I don't want to start a war in my mentions about who's USC and who's not. If you have an opinion on the real USC to at Celebrity Hot Tub.

Actually, I think this is subtle now, if I recall. I think South Carolina has actually backed off this. If I'm wrong about that, you can reach me at my old handle. At 38, Godfrey. All right, Spencer, what's your 11-pointer? No, I'm left with some absurdity here. And I think I'm going to take one that seems the least absurd to me. I'm going to take James Franklin or either James Franklin or Jim Harbaugh winds up leaving or getting fired.

Because I think it's plausible either way. And it's especially plausible with James Franklin. And the only reason I would say this is because the USC job is going to be able. open. He's going to be super open. Not after Urban Meyer takes it. Oh, well, this is it. Either you or I get this or we don't, right? Because I don't think Meyer is going to take the USC job. Right. Your is a smarter pick because it is more open to possibility.

Oh, I got it like there's all kind. I have all kinds of outs. I'm not saying it's a great hand, but it's entirely plausible that Harbaugh just goes back to the NFL and that they have a little hey, buddy, it's not working. Don't know why we love you. just go take that NFL gig and yeah he can do that because it's happened before out of college right James Franklin James Franklin has complained openly at Penn State about needing to commit to being a top shelf program and an elite program. It's a poor workman who blames the tools, Jim. Y'all, I am so excited for Atlanta Falcons head coach James Franklin. You don't even know. You know where and if that USC job is open.

Jason, if you're the, if you're the. Falcons coach. Oh, we're going to. No, no, no. I mean, I'll take. I'll take. I'll take James Franklin. That's sure, fine. No, I'm making you the coach, not James Franklin. You can hire him as a. Coach Franklin needs help. It's you and Thomas Dimitroff, right? No, I'm out now.

Just sitting there in a room with him going, dude, you look so creepy. I'm out. Why do you look so weird? I love Castlevania. That's why. I'm really great at drafting players who weigh no more than 200, 40 pounds But yeah There's a lot of out

Because it's a service academy This is troop respect In fact of Falcons got a weight limit We're the fucking coast guard team We're the Air Force Falcons We're the Air Force We're the Air Force Falcons

Excuse me Oh yeah we are the Coast Guard Right Spencer? Yeah USC are the original troops And you need to respect them Can't get much more OG than Trojans That's true

Michigan State fans You can reach Spencer at ryan dot nanny at boxmedia.com no emails I'm sorry facts is facts and when James Franklin takes them to an 8 and 4 record

in his third year at USC we'll say gosh this looks familiar why isn't Jack Del Rio on here why isn't Jack Del Rio Nobody knows where he is Holly what did we leave on the 11 point plate All right still on the board Southern Miss beats an SEC opponent, I believe we've already covered how that's going to happen.

They have two shots, if memory serves. They play Mississippi State and Alabama both in September. So if you take this, you will know very quickly whether it caches or doesn't. Next down on the 11-point list is USC starts 0.3. We have already been through this program how we, how likely we think it is that USC starts 0 and 6. so I'm kind of surprised nobody jumped on this one. Sam Ellinger Heisman, somebody backed off that. That was me.

I was going to take it, but I decided to go with Urban Meyer and stuff. By the way, the odds for that, that's 25 to 1. Yep. If you're going for Heisman odds for Sam Ellinger, if you're interested in the Tua, that's about an 11, 11 to 4. Same for Trevor Lawrence or thereabouts. I have two, two ones. I'll share one after the 13.1.

We're not done going through the 11-pointers. Joe Burroughs at 40 to 1, Jason, if you just want to pick it up. Got it. I'll pick him with my 15-point pick. Our spicy son. Yeah. All right, throw it down that list. An all-California team's Pac-12 title game, which would, I mean, Washington and Oregon could

lobster pot each other out of this. Yeah, I don't hate that one. No. Thank you, birds, for weighing in. And, oh, final round. 13 points. Spencer, you're up first. For my 13-pointer, I am going to take

Another school announces it's leaving the AAC This is a good one This is a good one Any thoughts on who that might be Any of them Anyone in that conference could go at any time That's why it's so interesting Navy goes independent

Yeah, I think that is the Kind of the only thing that could happen Is if Navy goes like 1 in 11 is just like Fuck it, we're out There is some weird possibility where like a domino falls in the big 12 and houston finally gets the call up that i could see that maybe maybe maybe happening none of these are great picks no that's why that's why they're 13 pointers yeah the 13s are ugly i like i like the idea by the way of tulsa just going hey listen

we got a big metropolitan market let's just make it happen let's go like we're going to kusa we're going to go be the gods of kusa going to make it big in the aaf heard they're doing some stuff there oh yeah wow they could have they could have just snuck in the a a f tulsa hurricane that sounds perfect uh i think i'm next in the 13s hey lan hey man let me keep respecting the troops army beats michigan it's the only one of these i can even see as possible so i'll take that let me tell you if if that happens my 11 pointer gets much stronger much much stronger. Yeah, that's true.

Yeah. Fair point. My 13-pointer, a group of five team makes the playoff. Continuing my doomed march towards picks that won't pan out. Can you tell I haven't been paying enough attention to college football in the last two years? Yeah, neither have I. Look what I did. Sat this out. Damn it. Know your limitations. Smarter than me as usual. That's my 13-pointer. It is a Hail Mary thrown in the wrong

direction, and by that I mean 90 degrees to the left. Signifying nothing. Work for Old Miss. So, Holly, what does that leave of the unclaimed 13s? All right. And again, these are adjusted by Bud, not us. First in this column of unclaimed emotional baggage is USC starting 0 and 5. We have already explained how we think USC is going to start 0.16, so we're carrying on.

Felipe Franks Heisman, Floridians, how we feeling? Nobody took this. No. It's it. I can tell you the odds. That's 100 to 1. So when I went through, I sort of just exed out all the ones I didn't like. This was the first off the board for a hundred to one.

Okay. All right. Moving on down, USC starts five and oh. You know what? Just don't rank them. I'll ask. Just don't rank them. We still have a lot of cosmic debt to repay on that score.

And Urban Meyer takes Notre Dame. This could also be North Dakota. It just says Indy. Yeah, that's true. Yeah. Hmm, I didn't think about that. Yeah. If he really wants to put himself out of harm's way.

Okay, Spencer, why don't you make your bonus pick? Anything left on the board that you haven't taken, you can take at this point. Yikes. Um, yeah, these are, these are all dumb. They're all super dumb. You know what? Let's do it. Let's ride hard.

Let's ride big. Ready? Yeah. USC starts O in five. Wow. Yeah, Ryan, Ryan, you go next because I've been first or second every round. Okay. I will hedge a little bit, and I'm going to steal USC starts 0 and 3.

That's going to be my bonus pick. You guys are going to be. We're all betting on various shades of disaster for one of college football's most lauded and durable programs. To be clear, when I sent Bud the spreadsheet, his first, comment was there's a lot of USC on this you should maybe like like maybe a seventh of the question shouldn't be about USC so we took some we took some away believe it or not uh if not for at Washington I would strongly consider USC 5 and O okay I don't think they'll go 5 and O but that's a lot of points um let me go I'll take UMass UMass getting two cracks at very

beatable teams I'll take that yeah you you know what the like the projected like S&P percentage win likelihood against Rutgers for UMass is right because I thought like oh that's got to be like 52% it's it's like 27% really that's how that's how bad that's how bad UMass is they got Walt Bill now he once wore a meme sweater during a bowl game if I recall

so yeah it went so well for him at his last coordinator gig oh wait no he's head coach, isn't he? Yeah, it gets even better. He's the head coach. Oh, God. For whom the bell tolls, it tolls for Northwestern. Plus, now you're catching Ruckers early before they've had a chance to supercharge. Yeah, before all their talent kicks in.

Before the Rucker's super weapon charging off like hot pressed sandwiches and monster energy drink out there in New Jersey. The swamps are alive. I can hear it. Be like, uh, I ordered a pet super weapon. Too bad.

This is what Big Lots had. You get a Rutgers instead.