SoccerWise - MLS Deep Dive Nerd Out w/Bobby Warshaw & Matt Doyle

Episode Date: January 5, 2026

To close out our holiday slate we have one of our favorite episodes. Friends of the show Matt Doyle & Bobby Warshaw come on to bounce around some big and small topics around MLS. They dig into what makes a winner and how they would run a club.

Welcome, students. So the first ever episode of Soccer, the smartest show in all of world soccer. I'm your host, David Goss. I am the least important of the three people here, as we have, the armchair analyst, Matt Doyle, and the, what was your nickname, Bobby? Did you ever have a thing? Swayneau himself. Swayneau himself.

Did your articles never, you didn't have like a central winger like Devin had type thing? I'm still pondering the show name. Soccer, it's a great name. I just want the people to know we were not allowed to workshop that one. That one sprung on us by David in the moment.

Although if you're watching the video right now, you wouldn't know which one of us is which, so it could have been you that said it. I'm very excited for this show, the show which was, I think Bobby's brainchild, but he has an ability to, you know, stick it in my head, and then it ends up pretending to be my idea in the end. But we're going to hang out and chat about some of the big ideas around soccer that I've just been floating in our heads, and we're going to try and do this every once in a while on our platforms. Bobby, you haven't said anything really yet. How are you doing? you just know how I feel about naming things and the fact that you came out with a brand new name that is questionable at best just really threw me off I can sell it though I can sell it don't worry I can sell it but I would let me say I'm just I'm excited to be here I enjoy talking about all things

in life with you guys particularly soccer I'm jealous that you two get to do it on a regular basis so I've just been really looking forward to this and I'm happy I'm here I look forward to the LinkedIn post about it I like that don't do that Don't do that. We can't start on that, Matt. Okay. We can't start on that now. So the original idea was we brought sort of a question that we were going to bring in as a conversation topic

and we would sort of go through each of us and meander through it. It feels like the first time Bobby came and played men's league with me on a team I'd played on for years where very quickly it's going to become Bobby's show and he's going to run it in a certain way. So Bobby, do you have a different idea about it or would you like to get us started with your first of how? how many topics. I just want to say there's some early, some early shots in this that we're setting the tone. Okay, here, I, there are a couple things that I wanted to talk about.

So I am just going to do that. I'm just going to run through them. We were each supposed to bring a topic and a question because one of the things I enjoy talking about with you guys is just all of the places it can go. And I would say if I were to have thought about a framing or a title for the show, Doyle, what did you use?

used to tell us when we were on set. And I would always tell you, I really think we need a show plan. I really think we need to talk about this. We need to prepare what we're going to say and make sure that there's a flow to the conversation. What was the line that you would use back to me? If you have to think about it before you say it, then you didn't actually know it. That's right. And this is stuck in my brain basically every day since. And I believe so deeply against that in most professional settings. And for the most part, if someone shows up to a meeting unprepared with me, it's DOA in that moment. But I do think that there is some validity. that, and some authenticity, just having a conversation and seeing where it goes.

And that was the way I wanted to approach this. So to David's point, we have each brought one or two topics and questions. We have not prepared. We don't know what they are for each other. So we're just going to see where it goes. But I do want to hit you guys with three quick ones at the top. So I basically get to interview you and get your thoughts on three topics. Does that work?

Do you want me to answer these before I think about it? what do you mean well if i think about if you ask me the question i say huh that's good let me think about this for a second then i don't really know my answer whereas if you ask me and i just blurt out the first thing that comes into my head then we're in the flow state i mean i would say be a general adult about it be like a semi coherent professional where maybe you know write down some notes think about it for a second okay um but listen whatever works best for you we have David and I have learned not to try and put parameters around what you do, Matthew. So here's my first question for you, okay?

I want to, you know, when you guys think about hiring a chief soccer officer, GM, sporting director in major league soccer, you know, there have been new hires this offseason that there will probably be a couple more before, you know, at the start of next season. I want to know who is the main template that you use. Like who is the person that you were trying to replicate? And what is the profile or what are a couple traits of that person for you to hire against? I can go first if you want. Go ahead. I'd say the two epitome. The two tops are Tim Besbechenko and Garthagoe.

And what I say I would take from what I've seen from them and looking for is a fusion of soccer understanding with wider business operational knowledge. and process-oriented. So I want people who have some soccer background, but the reason I'm hiring them is not because they can smell or taste or feel a player, but that they can run an organization and potentially empower people who do do that.

Yeah, that was my answer as well. And like the first two names that popped into my head were those two guys. I think John Thornton has been really good at it. I think I almost hate to say it, like Ernst Tanner has done really good job for Philadelphia. And it's, for a lot of these guys, it's the ability to delegate and to create a really functional organization

and to think of yourself not just as the decider, but the organizer. And I think the guys who fail are guys who fail at organizing a coherent, not just a group, but a coherent strategy. like they end up throwing a lot of stuff at the wall so i i don't want to we probably don't want to talk about earns too long but i would say that i actually think his advantage is that they're a cheap team and he didn't actually have to do a lot of the organizational stuff he kind of was the i can sense talent guy and they don't really do much so he kind of was able to go out there and do it dorrington i think is a bit of a better example of like large scale club that's operating in different fields right they

They are clearly talking with Sun and Gareth Bale while also talking with Nashia now while also trying to figure out what MLS free agents they want to pick up. And it feels like that's a wider, a more process-oriented setup for them, where they're bringing all those pieces together to build a team where it's like, Ernst Fails, he doesn't, he picks a guy, he doesn't. And it doesn't really matter because they're not spending in a sphere

where all the players are kind of in the same pool. And like sometimes it hits and sometimes it does it. Yeah. what happened with Garth then like at a at a macro level aside from whatever you know maybe he didn't pick the right center infielder you know where did Garth go wrong within this framework for you then Matt um you know he came in and he was very explicit about he's the business guy now he's not the soccer guy and that was a year of letting Carlos Bocanagra ostensibly call the shots I'm not sure if I you know believe that

100%. But there is certainly an element to that, like the stuff that, you know, Sam Jones has reported the guys down at five-stripe final, dirty soft soccer, whatever, you know, all of the coverage points to it having been Carlos for the first year of Garth's tenure. And then, you know, Garth took a more active hand and then Chris Henderson came in. And sadly, now Garth is out of the picture and we wish nothing but the best. But I think there was just a lot of moving pieces in the org that made it a little bit dysfunctional. And that wasn't the case. That was never the case in Seattle.

Just it just wasn't. And it wasn't really the case in RSL either. And so just getting caught up in the maelstrom that is Atlanta United. I think that was probably the biggest part of it. But I also think part of it is, let's see. man, Garth's weakness as a CSO was he never really pushed to get the young domestic guys into the team, which is a weird thing to say because he was instrumental in building out that Seattle pipeline, which has been so robust now and used so well over the last couple

of years. But he, like, they lucked into Christian Raldon. Like, that was not something that Garth was pushing for and they didn't. Well, to be fair, they traded up to get him. Yeah, like 50,000. Yeah. For sure. I'm just saying they had an idea that he was a player. But that was that was more of like a budgetary thing.

Because it's like, oh, we might as well get him because he won't hit the cap for four years because he's a generation of theaters. It was like budget manipulation. Not necessarily club culture. This is a guy who's going to play 4,000 minutes a year for us for the next decade. You know, so like there are there are blind spots, I think, for

for all of these guys that we've named. And I think Atlanta not having that core of young domestic players, down roster players who can eat up valuable minutes and keep the floor high is a really good example of how things can go wrong, even when you spend $50 million in an offseason. So I would slide it up the roster a little and say it was a failure to recreate the core that it all builds off of. So I get what you're saying there, Doyle,

which is that back end is what allows you to stay cheap and stay affordable, but it's the Steph Frye, Chad Marshall, name X-Center made you want to from what time period we're talking about with Seattle, that they could bring in the weird German wingers who could or couldn't succeed. Nelson Valdez could or couldn't struggle,

but the floor was always really high, and all of them were coming into a group where they were followers is and not leaders. And that didn't exist in Atlanta. They failed to build it. And then I would probably assume, and I would assume if we ask Garth,

he would probably say somewhat the same. He probably struggled to understand what the gap from an $8 million to a $15 million to a $25 million player is and where the actual value is. And he probably would look back and say, Alexis Moranchuk was a player wasn't even in our range in Seattle.

and I got excited and I made the signing without understanding what I should be getting from that player and how I should be profiling that player, which was something they had never done before. So I'd say those are the two spots on the roster where it fell apart. But to me, that core part is where it fell into the chasm because the floor is really low and there was no one to sort of carry them through things. I mean, look at Seattle now, right? they have failed and not failed on Pedro de la vega and whatever and they still compete because of the whether it's domestic or mLS veteran or just team veteran corps that has existed for them now for

11 plus years and rsl was the same bobby do you have any input well i'm just going to i think what you guys said makes a lot of sense and i'm just going to pull it together and dad my insight as well i think you know the way we articulate this the way we talk about ownership groups is that um only about 15 to 20% of this person's job, Garth, John, Ernst, Tim is soccer related. It's like talking with agents. It's picking players. It's working with your scouting staff. It's talking to your coaching staff.

The other 80% is basically chaos and conflict management, right? It's managing upward. It's managing your staff. It's dealing with the thing that happens at the academy or the training facility or whatever. The problem is that, you know, these teams spend $70 million, you know, $50 to $70 million. They have 70 sporting staff, 100 business staff. And it all comes down to 11 players in the field and the right headcoats to coach those players.

So it effectively comes down to like no matter how you slice it. It like comes down to the eye to like the soccer instinct to put those players and the coach on the field together. The hard part is, which I think you're both alluding to, is like you basically have no idea who can actually do that well, you know? And even if someone has done it well, I mean, besides the fact that nobody when it comes to picking players has receipts in the world, even if they, do over seats like how do you know that they do it well in in england or germany and they can spot

the right player for the boondis league or the premier league or league at meckies that they can then do it an mLS so you know we can acknowledge that that is the most important thing how do you actually assess it and build confidence and feel like it translates well into your league that is basically impossible once you acknowledge that besides the fact that like even if they can do it how do you know that you have the ability to assess whether they can do it so whether you do all those somewhat humbling the best thing you can do is bet on the operational and business not business sense but like the operational sense and you're effectively creating a wisdom of the crowd so we don't think that this one person can guess the number right but if we put like eight smart people in a room that they together are

more likely to get the one number the one number being is X center midfield or X center back good enough for what we need and effectively this chief executive of your soccer department is the person that is just hiring and bringing together and optimizing the those eight people to then pick that number. It's what David said. It's being process-oriented. It is building a team around you in leadership who you are happy to delegate certain parts of this to and then collectively reassess as, you know, a process of, say, building

out a talent pipeline or purchasing players. Like, it's assess, reassess, re-evaluate constantly within the scope of what you've And so then you bet on the guy who has experience in an org like that or even better experience building an org like that. And this is one of the things that interests me about teams, especially, I didn't realize it until more recently when someone explained something to me about the New York Jets. And I think it's something that a lot of teams don't think about, which is we think about spending. And spending is exclusively talked about when it comes to players. And Bobby, you just said eight people in a room. Not every club has eight people in the room.

And that's where I was a little bit frustrated, which I think what Garth ended up building in Atlanta, which was like what Bez built in Columbus was, and what we have seen now is what, four CSOs that were underneath him, operating at one time plus Lauren Quartat, a two coach who ends up going to be an MLS coach and might do it once again. Like there was a lot of strong voices and intelligent people in those rooms,

but that costs money. Like you have to pay salary. to people that they deserve and then you've got to give them resources to do what they do best. And it felt like Atlanta never did that from a front office point of view, which I thought was going to be the, okay, what does he take from Seattle and take forward is, well, I had this process there if I turn it all up by 20% and I add one person to each department and I add the best people in each spot what I'm capable of. And it didn't feel like they did that. And Bobby, you know better than me. I don't know the amount of teams across MLS where we would say

that they, I don't know what the stratosphere is, I guess, in terms of front office spending, but it seems like it would probably align pretty closely to what final standings end up being. Well, that's an interesting research point. I would guess not. I don't know. This is like the same thing people say about player salaries, which is actually the fourth question I'm going to ask you in this line. But, okay, just to move on, because I think we could kind of go into another rabbit hole there.

My second question is. So, Bobby didn't know. So he doesn't know this information. Well, what does you give you? Ask your question again. No, no, no. I would say what's the stratosphere of MLS front office spending? Let's say it's. What are the buckets? Oh, interesting. I don't know that off the top of my head.

Yeah. But I guess my instinct is that it does not align with the standard. I think it's similar to player spending. Like, I bet you there is not a positive correlation between the two. I wonder if it's a stronger correlation, though, between front office spending and points per game. versus the correlation, which is still pretty weak between roster spending points per game. Right. I'm very curious about that.

All right. Sounds like everyone's got home. The only thing I will say is I think that to your point, are there eight people around the table at making the final decision? David, no, but there are eight people that contribute to it, right? The scouts who create the initial shortlist, who move to the three players that go to the GM, the, you know, head of analytics that build out the infrastructure, the data scientists that helped. Like, you know, there are- The technical director better be in there saying it's not worth spending on this guy

because we have a dude who's 17-year-old who's 90% of as good as him for free coming through the academy. And like that's like that's where you have to be honest and like clear-eyed about what the value proposition is in terms of the marginal upgrade you might get for spending on a U-22 signing from the second division in Israel if you're FC Dallas, for example. So it's like, go ahead, Bobby.

This is my second question. Like, what is the thing you're seeing around MLS right now that if you were given the keys, you would lean into to create more of an advantage? There's nothing around MLS right now. It feels like it's 30 teams going in 30 different directions at the moment. Like, there's not one trend that I feel confident saying is an actual trend. In the, well, I guess it gets thrown off a little bit, but I think you could walk away saying that three to five of the best teams were possession heavy and that they maximize talent by pushing it. I would say that Vancouver, San Diego, and Columbus is the trend I would follow.

and I would say that I don't actually need world-class attacking players to accomplish that. I just need high technical players who are willing to do what I need. And so it's like Max Arfston is, I'm trying to, is the Red Bull, I can't think of the 2015 Red Bull player, is the new version of that. Alex, Alex. Yeah, except Alex Will never played on Red Bulls and now he plays on Nashville and they play possession. It doesn't work. But that is the point. He's the Mike Grella.

Or Sean Neal is. Like, you know, Red Bulls was able to find talent that other people didn't want because they were willing to run through a wall for the team and they didn't care if the ball was at their feet. And then Max Arfstein is the new version of that, which is I don't care what you make me do. I don't care where you put me on the field. As long as the ball's coming through my feet and were flowing

and I get to do what I do best. And I think that's what Vancouver did. And I think that's how Jesper Sorensen maximized his roster and was able to get over all the injuries and all of that was emboldening Ralph Pryso and Ali Ahmed and Tate Johnson and all these guys. And I think now, after three years of Wilfred Nancy, into Sorensen, into Mikey Varus, you could take that and say, I can build a winning team that way. And I can find talent other people don't want that fits my system better. I have an answer now, by the way. And your answer was very good. And I should have

thought of it because I've been writing about it for the past three years. Like since, since 2022, which was the low point in MLS of correlation between possession and points per game, it has skyrocketed in the other direction. So very good job calling that out, David, and saving me from letting down our listeners. Sorry, soccer wiser audience. What we might be seeing is a trend and, you know, some, you know, light went off and light bulb went off in my head as David was talking about it. teams might be more willing to take a chance on U.S. Youth National Team products

who have not been able to break through in their current team. Like we saw it like a few years ago, obviously Diego Luna broke out in USL and he had been on the fringes of the U.S. youth national teams and R.S.L. paid for him, which didn't happen at that time. Like, MLS teams did not pay USL teams. This past year, Jack McGlynn, $2 million to the Dynamo. He was obviously a U.S. youth national team guy. We saw Sebastian Burhalter, who had been, he hadn't actually played for U.S.

youth national teams, but he had been in camps and Vancouver was like, yeah, $50,000. We don't really have a functional academy right now, but for $50,000, we could take a shot at a guy who, A lot of people have been like, yeah, he knows how to play the game. And then the big obvious one this past year is San Diego, as Tyler Heaps and Mikey Varis are really trying to collect all the members of the 2023 USU17 national team. Like I'm just waiting for Tom to tweet like, oh, yeah, they've bought Cruz Medina for $400,000 and he's going to be, you know, their new left winger next year because they've realized, oh, we could sell. Chuky Lazzano, we'll just replace them with a San Jose Earthquakes Academy product. Why didn't Tyler Heaps fit into the conversation for that first topic? We talked about Ernst and John and Garth and Bez.

It's awesome, but it's one year. I'm not saying that it's not going to get there, but it's a parody-driven league. The ability to succeed back-to-back is really, really difficult. We named two people who had a decade of experience, who did it at multiple clubs. who won championships. So, yeah, I would say he's next up, but also Chris Albright could have been in that conversation. Craig Weibel.

Yeah, there are other people who could have been in there. And I think heaps is probably one where if he goes for two or three years, then you're immediately putting it up there. But you can't, I would not, I would not feel comfortable assuming that they will be as good next year. Though I would bet on it, right? I would not bet on them being as good. Like you trust their process.

But, like, I think the process is good. I think Tyler Heaps is sharp as hell. I like that they're dogmatic, right? Because, like, maybe that is not exactly the best way to go into the playoffs and actually win MLS Cup. But it makes it easier to recruit and develop players if you're dogmatic about how you want to play and who you are as a team. And as long as you keep getting good players, your level is going to stay high. And then maybe eventually things sort of snap into place. and you're lifting a trophy or two.

Like that wouldn't shock me at all if that's the way we talk about San Diego in 2027, 2028. So I'm actually going to, let me put you on the spot with it then. Your owner gives you unlimited funds to go get the sporting director that you want. To make it simpler,

we'll say it has to be someone in MLS. You can even pay a transfer fee. They can be in a role right now. Who do you put that investment toward? I mean, it's not win now. It's maximize a chance for a championship over three years. if I go ahead but go ahead Dave and there's no you can't you can't say X because they are cheaper money is no object on this

yeah yeah that's fine uh it's a great question and I think heaps is up there because Bez is not in the league so he's not an option um my top two would probably be Axel schuster and Tyler heaps because I wouldn't pick Chris Albright because I wouldn't want my team if I'm getting to do all this stuff for fun I don't want them to be a pressing team I don't know that that's Chris Albright's DNA but he look over the club he went and got pat noon and they built the team into that so those would be probably my top two okay i'm about to i'm about to what about you guys on two topics here and not because i'm trying to catch you it's just like i think what you said is really smart and i want to know how you think through the counter points here on let's let's see like keep on this topic

i mean david axel schuster finished like average of seventh place for four straight years and now you're going to put them in the top category like square you know how do you go from seventh place literally a roster is like the exact same and then here comes a head coach to save the day. So square that for me on how Axel Schuster belongs in this conversation. I think for the most part, Vancouver finishing in seventh place the years they did and competing the way they did in the playoffs is actually overhitting their mark, if not being equal to it.

And not every MLS executive does that. So even in his bad years, a historically bad club was competitive. And then they found a way to make the jump. He made the call. After making the postseason, he doesn't have to step away from Vanney-Sartini. so he made the tough call to do so. All time, great MLS decision. Brave, smart, like in all time, good MLS.

Also one that shocked everyone because it wasn't anticipated. And then he was able to platform, yes, for Sorinton, and whatever that means, whether that means all he did was hire him and then fall asleep for nine months, whether it was he fought entities around the club saying believe in this guy, believe in this system. And on top of all of that, he did the thing I think you should do, which is maximizing all the level. of talent that are eligible to you, not just focusing on TAM players, U22, Academy,

whatever it is, right? They've been able to hit on draft and trades and re, the players Doyle talked about, the former youth national team players, all of that, but he kept the door open for a guy like Thomas Mueller and sold the project well enough, however much he needed to be, to bring him in the door. So that's where I would say actual Schuster is not a one-year model that he's had, he has three or four years of me liking the way he's run a club. Okay.

And then to go back to this question of, what is the, the strategic decision that you see your NMLS, you're going to lean into? My answer is twofold, and I'm going to summarize what I think one of yours was. And Doyle, you said, go out and get the top underused youth domestic asset from the clubs. You know, there are, you'd have a better sense, five players that are you 20 national team players with the ability to be World Cup players and, we'll say, Europa League players in Europe that are not getting minutes as 18 year olds can I I I'll even lower the bar I don't know if I mentioned this the first time through but like look at what Nashville did was it today or

yesterday when they got Thomas Thomas Williams and I don't know if he's ever going to be um even an MLS starting center back he's 21 years old he has good measurables right he's like well built and he's 6 foot 2. He has 8,000 minutes of pro soccer and next pro. And his underlying numbers from American soccer analysis say he's gotten better every single year. And they spent $100,000 and the number, the 20th overall draft pick, which is not nothing. But if Thomas Williams is never more than like a third or fourth choice centerback, that is so worth the price that Nashville just paid because he profiles as a guy who's going to be able to give you 2,000 minutes a season across all competitions without hurting your cap and without taking up a domestic or an

international roster slot. So it's it is the high level guys the luka bombinos and you know Diego lunas and jack mcglins but it's also like be smart about like there are opportunities to fill out your game day 18 with the type of talent that has traditionally kind of fallen through the cracks in MLS and you could do it on the cheap so i disagree with you because i disagree about how to think about that like fourth centerback and where you you know how you designate that but that's kind of a personal preference so i hear what you're saying i would focus on the players that legitimately have the ability to become you know and we'll talk about this hopefully some in the future what i would call you know key players

you know basically above median mLS players a lucca bumino a cruise medina brandon krag fit into this category a few years ago, you get the idea. So anyway, that's one thing that I think we all agree with lean into. The other you said possession heavy. And this is my answer, right? This is actually the other thing that I, that I was going to bring that for me, the obvious thing this is true in MLS in most leagues is that the number one thing I would build around is effectively ball retention and running at midfield. A, for all sorts of database reasons, gives you an advantage. It's also just cheaper and allows you to spend money elsewhere on the cap. So basically, players that keep the ball all day and run their asses off and the game is very simple it's very

building south is what you're talking about yeah i would say also like an anibal godoy i think is very scoff and the rights like you know uh even a herector herr and artur uh cariskeo like i know we could have kind of questions on like whether they are specifically ball retention but in my mind they can fit that category well the thing i'm asking to square here is how do we think about the other over especially overperforming teams Philadelphia Minnesota Cincinnati, top of the table. I mean, you guys mentioned three or four teams that are near the top because of ball retention and possession.

And my flip side is like, we could literally do the exact same list, the same number of top four teams in MLS that are the opposite of that. And then L-AFC, which is like kind of a third bucket, but we'll do that another time. Well, yeah, L-AFC leaned harder into ball retention this path. Like, anytime you get Mark. Put that to the side. Don't let's not get distracted by that. The point is like Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Minnesota.

three teams that I think we would call smart and well put together. They go against the paradigm that we're all saying, which is like the inefficiency you lean into is possession and ball retention. I would just say my starting point on this would be all of them are outlier clubs. It's a salary cap league. Every roster is pretty much the same. What's going to differentiate you? I think MLS more than any league in the world,

choose a thing that makes you different and lean 100% into it, not 60% into it. And I would argue that even though Philly and Cincinnati, and I don't remember who else we named that are pressing, are different, they are still proving the point, which is choose a thing that makes you an outlier in a way and dominate that thing or lean 100% into that thing

because on Wednesday night in Austin and then they fly to come play you on Saturday, they're not going to be prepped for you. They're not going to want to play you. They're not going to change to you. The only time it comes back to haunt you is in the plan. and I'd rather be a home team in the playoffs every year and figure that out than being a team fighting to get into a postseason spot. So I think they still kind of prove the point. I'm just

picking that as my outlier. I think it fits the development of American soccer, which is there are more technically proficient players coming through. And a lot of them maybe don't actually have the game news and knowledge. And so I can put them in the right situations. But I still think there's a lot of those players there that I can lean into and build a good club out of. I also don't think it's fair to call Cincinnati a pressing team this year. They're not a ball. They're not a ball of retention team. I honestly think they were meant to be.

I think the idea for Cincinnati in 2025 was to have more of the ball and certainly to dictate the game more than they actually did. And I assume most of their work this offseason, it's not going to be around getting new players. It's about getting the players that they already have onto the same page so that they can look more like a team that can kill you with the ball and not just kill you in moments, right? They will win a ton of moments, especially against unprepared teams, especially against bad teams. But eventually they're going to get to a point in any tournament play or even big regular season games where what Miami did to them, like if they're, since he can't

control the pitch in those moments, they're not going to win a cup. They're just not, no matter how much talent they have in the attack. And I think their way, look, man, if you have Evander, you're not going to be a pressing team. You're going to be a team that wants to use the ball. And I think that's just what it comes down to. Can I use dumb people stats on this? Yeah, absolutely.

So possession, average possession, this is an order in the league this year, San Diego, Columbus, Inter Miami, L.A. Galaxy, NYCFC, Whitecaps, Seattle, L.A.F.C. So that's the top 10 in order, which is basically the top 10 of the league outside of L.A. Galaxy, which are an obvious outlier without Ricky Pugent will be a top four team in the West next year. And I think part of this, Bobby is, and you would know this much better than outside of David. Yeah, right. Much better than David or I is like players want to have the ball. They want to play soccer. You know, they don't want to want to. Like, I'm actually, Minnesota fans hate me so much already.

Sorry, guys. I'm betting on a large regression from Minnesota next year because none of the players want to play that way. They want to play actual soccer. They don't want to play football. And I think, like, you can get a group to buy in to that for a year or two. But even by, like, mid-late August, we saw the concentration. levels, the commitment levels,

falling off a bit for Minnesota. Less so for Philadelphia, but I'm expecting a regression from them as well, especially because they're going to have to play CC, I still call it CCL, they're going to have to play CockyCath Champions Cup at the start of next year. They're going to have to play Leagues Cup.

They're not going to benefit from having a much easier schedule than the rest of the top of the table teams where they won the supporter shield by a point. past year over teams that play 20 more games than them like that is significant i just want to say the point you brought up some of those really useful amount i think which is like what a players want and i think people know this but to just say it out loud it's really hard to do analysis on what

works in soccer and european leagues because it's basically all decided by spend teams spend more money they get better players better players want to pass and press therefore those teams pass and press it's not that either of those is inherently better it's just that players matter more than anything else and good players to Matt's point, want the ball and want to get the ball back as soon as possible. My ad here, which we've, I think we've all talked about, and it's not exactly related to the conversation. I just like saying it out loud is I think when you actually try and solve for soccer, there's two directions you can come at.

You can come at from the maximizing probabilities section. Sorry, there's not, these aren't, these are over, these are the same thing. They're not separate. But you're basically trying to maximize probabilities and you're basically, and you're trying to maximize the likelihood of success, execution. Right. I think too many people when they talk about how to build their game model, how to build their identity, all of these things, think about how to maximize the probabilities and not how it actually impacts the humans and the individual's ability to execute on those things. So, and we've all talked about this, but when I think about the style that I want my teams to play, I believe deeply in passing and pressing because like maybe it helps your probabilities. Maybe it helps you win the ball back in good spaces. Maybe it helps you get to good spots in the field that lead to good shots. But more than anything, it's that effectively is constant action. The reason you pass the ball next to the person next to you and then move is because it's action, action, right? The reason you press

is because you step to the person, you bump forward, you're, you follow your player once you go into man to man. It's like action, action, action. And when it does, it turns off your brain. When you turn off your brain, you get into flow state. When you get in a flow state, you're more likely to execute. So that's why I broadly like the idea of passing and pressing more than I like the way some of these other teams approach it. So, I don't know. Like I said, not related. I just like giving that overview.

No, I totally buy that. I totally buy that because that is, you know, as you were sort of laying out your theory right there, you were talking about like maximizing probabilities. And I was thinking like, yeah, the way you do that is you maximize vibes. And I've just like come full circle my, my appreciation of this game where it's like, if you have a locker room that is like, yeah, this is, this is good. This is how we want to do this every single day. Like, they're going to show up and they're going to work and you're naturally going to have more action on the pitch and more guys working for each other, making sacrificial

runs, all the stuff that we love to talk about. And, you know, we spend however much money trying to track via second spectrum or whatever. Like, that's all downstream of vibes. And, like, that's the Bruce Arena seeker. Like, every player has ever played. for Bruce. I said, yeah, he's no master tactician. And it's true. But if you watch his teams, they play for each other and they win a lot because of that. And if you have, you know, assistant coach who can put the pieces in the right place on top of it, you know, that's how you become the winningest coach in MLS history. Yeah, Matt, I've really evolved on this term. Remember us having conversations about how important coaching was and how a bad coach can

tank you and coaches that we thought were bad and the coaches that we thought were bad that ended up winning a lot. And I've tried, you know, I've just reflected on like, was I wrong or did the game evolve? And of course, it's naturally a little bit of both. But I do think that now tactics are so prevalent in everything, you know, like six-year-olds have tactics. There's thousand, like literally tens of thousands of A coaches around the world. Six-year-olds have coaches with A licenses. Like, they're so prevalent that the bar has been raised that I do think the coaches that we

thought we're bad Matt that were that were successful in one were probably more luck than us being wrong we're certainly wrong a little bit but the evolution now into why it's more player focus and coaches matter less is I do think that the floor is just higher and that between all players know more about general tactics and approaches all coaches know a little bit more and that pair just like raises the bar where you don't have to coach as much you don't have to do tactics as much and you can focus on the vibes this was going to be my question that I was bringing because I thought we were each going to ask a question, but then turned out only I've got two more. I've got two more.

But my question, I had never had this conversation before, so I don't know if it's a concept people listening to this will have even thought about. It's been said to me by two different MLS current executives, and I think Bobby we've spoken about it before, which is there are people who just don't believe there

even should be a manager anymore, that they would have a defined set of roles for multiple portions of the job, and then someone works on putting together the final starting 11, um, and I had never thought of it as a concept. And it's been said to me three separate times this year by three separate people who are in decision making roles that I am not. I'm just trying to think, I'm trying to think who the people are that said that to you.

And that's probably a fun guessing game after we're done. Um, but you still need a, you still need a, like a chief executive of the situation, right? You need someone to make decisions. I thought we were anarchist commune. I think the point would be in the interview process. Are you asking about a game model anymore? Or are you asking about a culture leader? And the point is, you are just the camp counselor.

Oh, we're a cult. Everyone else is working on things. Well, let's hold. I want to take this down. You're going to tell me that you come out of some of this soccer stuff. The Wilfred Nancy stuff isn't that. Impossible is nothing. Oh, for sure.

Believe in yourself. Hold on. You're going to tell me, Jess is not running. Jesse's not running a, a media marketing scam thing like that's what all this is i want to i want to go down this tito's got lemons at the training ground the point of the show is to go down like let's go down this alley for a second so how does it work if there is no head coach or manager as we know it david who picks the lineup so i think it would be the way it's been explained to me is you would

have your training session expert you would have your um opponent scout expert you'd have your free kick expert you'd have your goalkeeper all of that and it would all funnel into probably someone in the front office he sporting director who sets the lineup the part that gets awkward there is if it's the sporting director you're supposed to have i think a gap between i tell you you're not starting and i pay you money and i think that's like an awkward role so it ends up maybe being a technical director or whatever it is or it is the quote unquote head coach but the head coach i think the point is to all of this is everyone is searching maybe for the wrong attributes from that person of what we're just saying which is everyone's questioning bruce's tactical ability

don't even ask them about their game model when they come into the interview don't even look for that person just look for the person who makes that final decision and manages the entire culture yeah that just yeah that just feels like a head coached as sporting director and we've like the world seen that before so i'm i'm i like the outside the box thinking and there's at least some way to make it work, but it feels like we're just coming full circle on that. I guess the question would be, do you pay that coach $150,000 instead of $1.5 million? And then you go and pay your assistant coaches each the same amount. And can you get the best assistant coaches without having a real figure head head coach,

who is the brains behind the whole thing? Oh, and also, there's no pathway to becoming a head coach if you're an assistant coach at this team. Like, I don't know. like it's a fun is that different than a different role though i mean if you're an assistant under ben olson you run the training sessions if the next person wants to hire you they have to extrapolate for what it's worth for what it's worth i do not think the assistants run the training sessions under ben olson so someone has to run it to just pull to kind of show behind the curtain

on head coach places that we've or hires that we've been across um we spend and i believe very strongly in spending limited time on talking game model in tactics for a variety of reasons. I think one, to your point, it just matters less and less. Like you want someone who you know what they're going to do. You know that you're generally aligned. But I think too much ink, too much conversation has been spilled on trying to figure out if someone is tactically capable, which again, I think the bar is higher and most people

are above the bar. And I think in the other pantheon of things, it just matters less. It matters less than picking the right players. Like I actually don't mind having the sporting director decide who is in the lineup that week, right? The sporting director and the scouts are like the ones that spent all the time picking them. They have the multi-year vision. That actually doesn't bother me. But the next question is, who looks the person in the eye and tells them they're not starting? Right? Who talks to them in the morning to make sure that they train well so that they're in a good position to start?

So how do you actually manage the squad as one? I think an increasing one we talk to people about is their periodization, right? The way you approach a training week, one is it sophisticated enough and two, does it align with the players that we want to sign and how we're thinking about it now our head of medical and performance and our sports science staff and all of these things are are doing it um and then three which we're kind of already talked about is like do you like the same players as me so anyway i think that the point is that to your question of how do you think about hiring the head coach i do think people should index way less on style of play and tactics the other part of that is like all of these head coaches have amazing powerpoints and

amazing presentations now they're all charismatic they all pay someone to make the slides like if you were going to try and filter on someone's game model presentation, you will want to hire everyone, and it's just really hard to filter that way. Would you be more inclined to hire a head coach who actually knew how to make the PowerPoints himself or herself? I believe, I think that was a fake question, but I'm going to give you my real answer. I mean, it was half a fake question. I don't even know broadly believe that a good filter on things, especially for technical hires, is professional standards. So I think if you can make a PowerPoint and you can respond to emails and you can write complete sentences, I do think to the original conversation we had that a sporting

director and largely now a head coach manager, and I've used this line a few times and I've overused it, but like they are just a chief of executive of what they're leading and be able to bring people together and create a high performance environment does matter more than the technical components. So obviously I don't actually care if they can make the slides, but I think broadly speaking Doyle, professional capabilities are a positive signal. I think the best combination would be like knows how to make a slide, but also knows their own limitations and would actually outsource the job of making the slides to someone who has elite ability there.

I have no idea of what you're saying there. I still don't know if you're being sincere, but I do agree with you. neither do I it's amazing do I do I get my last question yeah you get one more question before we're out of here and then we'll do another episode

where Doyle will ask one question that will be that episode this is one of these scenarios we're like I don't even know we're talking about at this point and I have no idea if people enjoy that type of thing which we can recap after this what have you guys

It's your mental model for soccer, where is it wrong? Where do you know it's wrong? Where do you accept that you need to get other people's input? You need to reevaluate. And I can go first on this if that's helpful. Do you want mine for soccer or roster building? Because my head is in a roster building space now because that's where we spent. Yeah, wherever it goes.

Yeah, wherever it goes. Do you want me to go first? Yeah, I guess so. Yeah. My mental model is bad is I basically always undervalue attacking talent, specifically wide dribblers. So I will always undervalue, and I know this is a bigger conversation, which I'm dangerous to even say the word out loud. But like, how do I rate a Christian Plissick, a Rahim Sterling, and Edin Hazard? You know, there's obviously a whole group coming through.

Stop it. I should have had that as a drop ready to go. Yeah, so I think if I, my risk in roster building would be that like, I just don't have talented enough players. Why do, why do those players matter more in real life than they do in your head cannon? Is it simply because the threat that they possess of or that they pose of, or that they pose of, destroying an individual defender off the dribble naturally creates more gravity for them and unbalances the opposing backline and maybe even midfield by a couple yards is it like that simple the mechanics of the actual game i'm not i didn't fully digest how you thought about it the way

i think about it and tell me if this is the same as you tactics effectively going back to like the maximize probabilities and then maximize execution tactics help you maximize probabilities and get to situations players then actually take that probability like you know they're the ones that actually hit the number you think they're going to hit so if we get to a zone on the field and that zone in the field has a 12% chance to lead into a 12% shot right you need a player that can hit 12% or better right like when we set up a one v1 moment for someone to run at someone which could lead to a cutback you need someone that can beat the player you need players that can combine you need players and get on the half turn and take

the space, right? Tactics sets up all these moments. They needy players good enough to actually take the probabilities and exceed what you've just done. And I think in my, the way I think about soccer with tidy players, with ball retention, with runners, I think that we would do a lot of good things. But like, at the moment, we need someone to like play the one, the one touch pass to break lines, to follow it, to time the run, to hit the right chip pass to the back post. Like, I would not find that as well as I need to. So is that line with what you're? Yeah. I mean, we're very close. I think the difference between the way you put it and the way I put it is you're looking at it in terms of maximizing what you've built and I'm looking at it in terms of maximizing panic and the chances of

disorganization in the opponents. I'm looking at what it inflicts on the opposite side of the field and you're looking at it in terms of making your vision more likely to become a reality. And I think to your point, your dream to become a reality, I think to your point, the side you were looking at it is side where it's like, it's probably not quantifiable

of like a little bit more gravity for this winger means life's easier for this center made in the other winger, which we're not really going to. I've always said like, I feel like there's a clear difference with players when there's a player on the field that they know will create a moment of brilliance

outside of the game model, that there's like a half breath of relief of like, well, if we can just stay in this, this, Evander will do it eventually. And I think the UC teams that don't have that player bump up against the line at some point of the season, which is like, we have to have overwhelming runners. We have to all be perfect every time just to get a goal, just to get a victory.

And it feels like that really cries down on players. The one that I would say is I think I overvalue how detrimental the weak link player is in major league soccer. I thought Vancouver was going to win MLS Cup because I thought the worst player on the field played on into Miami. Are we not going to say at the same time who we think you're thinking of, David?

I didn't even have an exact name, but we could go into it if you want to. Okay. One, two, three. Falcon. Okay. But if Wine Gott had started, it would have been him. Some of the center mids, it's been them.

I have consistently talked about weakling soccer in MLS and like how much it matters. And I think I sometimes underrate the high end of the team, which can carry them through big games. Yeah, I like that one. Weeklink soccer is definitely one of these things you say because it sounds good and it feels logically right. But if you probably were doing the analysis, it's like not right that often. I need to think about that. It's a fun unifying, a fun unifying theory that doesn't actually unify that much.

Unless the weak link is the goalkeeper, which totally, you know, also applied to Inter Miami earlier this. season. Um, I, I have a couple. I think just overall, um, I've come to expect improvement from young players. And that is, yeah, like that is so, that is so naive. It's, it's, it's, it is absolutely ridiculous of me. But I, like, I cannot help it. It's who I am as a sports fan. Like I, and I'll, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it broke your heart the most. Give us like your top three of oh my god i mean juan agadello

is way up there right because like imagine if he moved off the ball the way brian white moves off the ball like he'd be still playing for a premier league team at this point right like that is a that that is a really tough one

like and that's a big one like oh it's it's off ball movement in particular where i'm like that's you can learn that it's so like you could just watch game And look at, yeah, like, do you remember a couple years ago on this old podcast called Extra Time? We interviewed Duncan McGuire. And we were like, how did you go from scoring two goals your junior year to 25 goals your senior year? He's like, I watched film and learned how to play soccer when the ball was not on my foot.

I was like, why doesn't everybody do that? So that's one. And the other one is like, I undervalue winning. And it's just such a luxury because I don't have a favorite club. And I, you know, I'm not running a team. team or anything like I just am purely aesthetics and probabilities and like are you maximizing what you have and if you're doing that then I love what you're doing and I have kind of you know when I started this job I was I had been a Metro Stars fan for 15 years I was still really in touch

with that side of of my personality and now it's 15 years later and I just I've completely lost touch with that aspect of being a fan. Um, and I think it, it also is like, it, like, I, I get mad when MLS teams sign 30 year olds. Because it's like, why? And it, like, you could just get a 20 year old. And within six months, they'll, the chance they're like, you can make them a better player. And the answer is, we need to win in those six months. We need to win games or I'm going to lose my job.

You know, so like, those are the two for me. this was awesome this was really fun bobby did you did you use the whole clip did you get everything out where are your questions though i thought that was part of the show yeah so did i but i got railroaded 54 three minutes ago and i've never got one in which means we've got a sequel coming up at least one if not two it will only get wiser as bobby would like for it to say i would like to say hi to sam stay school he'll be the only person who will make it to the end of this episode and we'll be having the best time. I look forward to the group chat from you to the three of us. And thank you to all of you for listening. If you enjoyed this, shoot us a message on

Blue Sky and we will try and do it again. There's anything else? If you have questions that you'd like us to hit, potentially, probably might allow them in, but probably not going forward. Thank you to two of you. Two of my favorites. Thank you for taking the time to do this. It's good to be here to Koss. Great to be here, David. All right. Fine. Thank you.