SoccerWise - MLS Edition: Over/Under 2025 Points w/Matt Doyle

Episode Date: February 14, 2025

As shocking as it may be the MLS season IS right around the corner. As Soccerwise rolls out its team by team previews this is a big episode. Matt Doyle has brought some goodies by the Soccerwise studio with a points over/under line for EVERY SINGLE CLUB. The guys debate each one from 1 to 30. But what do you think? Are they right or wrong?Inter Miami: 65.5Seattle Sounders: 59.5FC Cincinnati: 59.5LAFC: 56.5LA Galaxy: 54.5Atlanta United: 54.5Columbus Crew: 53.5Minnesota United: 53.5New York Red Bulls: 52.5Charlotte FC: 52.5Orlando City: 51.5NYCFC: 49.5Colorado Rapids: 47.5Austin FC: 46.5Houston Dynamo: 46.5Vancouver Whitecaps: 45.5St. Louis City: 45.5Portland Timbers: 45.5Real Salt Lake: 44.5FC Dallas: 44.5Chicago Fire: 43.5CF Montreal: 42.5Nashville SC: 41.5New England Revolution: 41.5Philadelphia Union: 41.5San Jose Earthquakes: 38.5San Diego FC: 37.5Sporting KC: 37.5D.C. United: 36.5Toronto FC: 33.5 Soccerwise Live 2pm ET Every Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday on Youtube/Twitch/Twitter

What's up everybody and welcome back to Soccer Wise for a very special episode. Tommy Scoops is with us, myself of course Federico Higuain and the legend himself Gonzalo Higuain. In the building we are back together, Matt Doyle is with us to bring the numbers, to bring the juice. If you've seen the title you know we are back together. Matt Doyle is with us to bring the numbers, to bring the juice. If you've seen the title, you know, we are talking over unders. Doyle, I'm excited to be together again. Yeah, I'm Jack to be on the show. This is, I think, my first appearance on SoccerWise at 2025.

First of all, I hope many. I hope you guys will invite me back after this one. But I guess we'll have to see how it goes. Yeah, I think Tom really likes to talk numbers and data and stats and stuff. So as long as you keep bringing numbers like you did today, I think Tom's going to be ecstatic. What Tom wants to talk about is I'm driving to Connecticut this morning for CBS and the Welcome to Connecticut sign says pizza capital of the United States. Are you joking?

Are you kidding me? What is happening here? You just get to say dumb things in your state? That's what happens? I think at this point, everybody understands that New Haven's the best pizza city in the country. With who? Like, it's just consensus.

Nobody knows New Haven exists. Anybody who's had pizza in Connecticut understands that, like, I don't ride for Connecticut for a lot, but there's a reason I left that place almost 30 years ago, and I do not intend to live there ever again. This is how I feel about Long Island. It is objectively a better pizza state than any other. And I say this as someone who lives walking distance

to Chrissy's, to Paulie G's, to Lindestree, like three of the consensus best pizza shops in New York City, and they wouldn't crack the top five in New Haven. Big Zabaro guy, are you? I love that Tom- Buddy, you're the Brid- you're the Bridging Tunnel crowd, man. I love that Tom also doesn't respect New York City pizza.

There's like one good pizza place in Tom's life and it is seven minutes away from his house. Tom only wants a pie that has a bowl of macaroni dumped on it like he's a freaking child. Yeah, Joel, just to tell you, you're not going to win on the ZD Slice debate. I'm ZD Slice as well. That's true New Yorker energy. Oh my God. Alright.

So, over-unders on how often we will piss each other off. The number is set pretty high and yet is still competitive. What we are doing here is something that Tom is very excited about, hence he's wearing his full bookie outfit for this show. We are going to go through every single team in Major League Soccer. We have a special computer that we have thrown

a bunch of data and numbers into, and then it has spit back out and over under for a points mark for every single team in MLS for the 2025 season. If you want, we of course also have our single team previews that are coming out and pushing around. I think we've got eight more to drop this weekend, another four that have already been recorded and all of that, but this is going to give us an opportunity to talk a little more general about all the teams coming up. If you are watching live, jump into the chat and tell us why you think we're wrong or think we're right or what numbers you want to see.

We already have the TFC over underline set at 12 in the chat by Mike Forbes. So it could be a really successful thing. If you're listening via podcast, jump into the discord, subscribe, get into the Patreon, get into the discord. and you could talk with us about these lines and everything else going on as well. We are having a ton of fun in there as we get ready for the 2025 season. But Doyle, you present these numbers, you have all of this with you. I believe we're going to start at the top. So we'll start with Toronto FC. Yeah, I think Mike from the chat is a little optimistic with the

the over under at twelve. Uh no, just so everybody knows, um we would have taken it from a sports book, right? Like sports books in for any other sport, they have like wins over under um and they don't have wins. They don't have points. They don't have anything. So, I had to kind of like make this up on my own. I got some input from producing Anders I got some input from a couple other friends who are pretty sharp about MLS I did ask the gang at American soccer analysis because They have this they actually have the computer and they're running this they just weren't able to get it up in time

But they eyeballed they eyeballed my over under and they're running this. They just weren't able to get it up in time. But they eyeballed my over-unders and they were like, okay, this seems good to me. It'll be good content at least. But I'm jacked about doing this. Tom and I are big fans of the Bill Simmons, Ryan Rosillo over-under pod for NBA every year. Goss, of of course hates that. Hates that.

But it's the one pod I look forward to most every single year. But Zach Lowe started doing it over the last few years and I do look forward to that. Hopefully Zach will be back at some point. But yeah, let's start. Let's jump in at the top. I set the over under for Inter Miami. They have the highest in the league at 65. And a half points and I'm just going to leave it there. Go ahead. I'm going to start. I'm

going under. I'm going under. I think that there's too many defensive cracks. I think that yes, they're going to brute force their way to points like they did last year. They can still have an excellent season and go under 65 and a half. I just think that's too high given Champions League Club World Cup and I believe that they're in another cup competition should be Leagues Cup. So they're going to be stretched pretty thin and I got questions about defensive transition once again. They set the points record last year and then the year before, Supporters Shield was 69

points the year before that. Two teams tied at 67 and then right before that you have the Rebs of course at 73. I think Tom, I assume your point being they can go under this and still win the supporter shield or you don't think they can win the shield? They're not my shield pick. I think that they can, absolutely, but they're not my shield pick.

Okay, I'm gonna say over on this one. I think you have Messi for the full year, you don't have a Copa America. As much chaos as there is around this club, they set the points record last year and Tata Martino quit like three days later. So if you think that things are going to go wrong around Inter Miami, that's still probably put you in a first place in the East conversation. That probably Martina's David Martinez and Max Falcone in central defense from the jump.

Redondo is already there. He doesn't have to integrate. They'll trust Yannick Bright from the jumps that should help them in defensive transition as well. Go ahead, Tom. I want to say that they wildly overperformed their exegy, which is going to happen with the team that has Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez. But they vastly overperformed it. They also led the league in points gained from losing positions. Those are not repeatable actions. So historically, they have been from messy steams. I'll just say that they have. And like to your point about fixture congestion,

I look at this. I look at this roster. This is the deepest roster I've ever seen. Like it's even deeper, I think, than last year's because last year's team had to scramble at right back. They had to scramble at center back. They had to scramble at center back. And this year, Toto Alvarez has like 5,000 minutes of MLS experience.

He's their third center back. They have an actual starting caliber right back this year. And they went out and they got a couple of, look, I just think this team is gonna be really, really good. I almost raised the line. The one thing that gives me pause, do you guys know how many teams in MLS history

have ever had 60 points in back-to-back seasons? 60 points in back-to-back season. The Galaxy must have done it in the keen years, so I'm gonna say three teams ever. Zero teams have ever had 60 plus points in back-to-back seasons. Shut up. Have ever had 60 plus points back to back. None of the Red Bulls teams did it? None of the Red Bulls teams did it. Wow. Yeah. Yeah. So, that like, I mean, we're talking, it's messy. So, we're talking about

a team that would have to make history. Um I think they're gonna, I think they're gonna win the supporter shield again. I think they're gonna go over 65 and a half points I don't think they'll break the record they set last year But I just think it's gonna look and feel like a better team to your point Tom I don't think they're gonna have to over perform as much as they did in 2024 So two of us over and then Tom under it sounds like All right, Doyle. Is anybody making notes?

I feel like we should write this. I am. I just wrote it down. Good thing that we're recording a podcast that's going to live. All right. Those are the notes. 59 and a half. I have two teams at 59 and a half.

The Seattle Sounders and FC Cincinnati. I had Cincinnati a little lower beforehand, but then I just look at that roster and that roster is stacked So I was just saying in my notes at 58 and a half. I don't care take take the extra point I don't need it. I'm going over on that one over on both of these actually if we're doing them as a combo Okay, I'm gonna go over on both of them as well actually Is one of these teams your supporter shield pick Tom? Yes, Cincinnati. Oh You're all in on a Vander I

Think that they're gonna score a billion goals and this will be the happy season So even if even if you're worried about him being upset, he's best behavior year one. Everything's gonna be great So with with this line, so I was trying to look at like the recent years history it's difficult to go too far back because the playoffs change every year and the teams change every year but Over the last couple years at least two teams have always gone over 59.5 points last year It was four teams above 59 and a half Do you guys think that we're gonna see more? Like a more prevalence of a 60-point teams in MLS so that there's bigger disparity from the top and the bottom now

I think there are fewer bad teams in the league this year I look at the rosters and you know other than our friends in in in Toronto and probably DC I just think that there's there's not There's not as much dead weight as there was In 2024 and I think the coaching is so much better. If you look at the way teams are prepared week after week, and I think Toronto will take a big step forward in that regard by having Robin Fraser in there. So I just don't think there's as many free points out there.

So it wouldn't shock me if there's a little tightening of the entire table this year, like not back to what it was like 10 years ago, but definitely a little tighter than what we saw in 2024. I would also add the differences in cup tournaments this year, having good teams play leagues cup and not have to play as you know, the worst teams not having those games. So having rest in those spots, open cup being sprinkled in oddly for some teams. I think that affects stuff like you look at the Sounders, right? The Club World Cup

I'm just looking at the schedule right now comes right in between Then playing Vancouver on one side Austin on the other and then leagues Cup for them They play Atlanta then they go into leagues Cup. They come out of leagues Cup on August 6 They play the galaxy on August 10th So like I think this I think Seattle is that one of the shield favorites for me But like that's a pain in the ass to have to deal with on both sides of that and so that I think Seattle is one of the shield favorites for me, but like that's a pain in the ass to have to deal with on both sides of that. And so that I think could be a threat, but I still have them over on this number.

They have so much depth with the moves. Like again, Pauli Arriola isn't, I don't think a locked on starter, you know, Paul Rothrod. Like they have, I think so many different combinations in all three phases of the game and attack midfield, a defense stat. I considered the fixture congestion, and I just think that they have too many options and too many consistent options within MLS. Always worry about a rash of injuries

to come to a team in the Cogs Cup, Champions Cup at all, let alone the Club World Cup and Leagues Cup. So that's definitely something worth considering, and you could see the wheels falling off, but you could see them kind of having to grind to stay high up the standings. But I think that there's just so much depth that they can handle a couple injuries and a lot of rotation. If I made it 61.5, are you both still over? I think I would go under on Cincinnati. and I think I would still hold on Seattle,

but it makes me sweat. So you're 100% convinced Cincinnati's gonna end up on 60 or 61 points? No, but I'm closer than the 100% convinced they're gonna end up on 62 plus points. So I had to put, can I take a push on one of these? I'll hit exactly, do I get any extra points? I don't understand not being worried about the time it takes for Cincinnati to be

settled in, like at the start of the year. So I think part of that is is their game model. Right. Like I think that Pat Noonan has done a really good job from day one of simplifying the game model and like making sure that everybody's in positions that works for them. And one of the things that broke last year was everybody's in positions that works for them. One of the things that broke last year was Lucho just stopped doing that. If you look at last year's second half of last season, how many goals or at least chances did Cincinnati

give up where Lucho's 70 yards from goal, trying to dribble 1 v 2 along the left touch line and everybody's trying to orient themselves around him. What the fuck? You know, like it's just not like it didn't work at that level. And I don't think Evander's that eager to drop that deep and get his touches. Like he's showed it. He played under Phil Frickin Neville, man. Like he's like you're not building from the back under Phil Neville. You're just getting your touches in transition. So I think that simplicity and being like, hey, let's get the ball on this guy's freaking foot with space to run and room to run in behind from our $18 million striker and Luca

Oriano and whoever you got, you know, De'Andre Yedlin on one side and the new guy on the other side. So my worry in that is not that side of the ball, but the other side of how you're setting the tone, counter pressing with Denke having never played with horizontal who won't train and a Vander who's never been there before. And that's my fear of the, are they just five weeks behind? And then you're talking, I'm not talking about a team that everybody sucks in the first five weeks. Yeah, fair. You know, you try hard and you have Niazga and Miles Robinson setups and yes, and I think I'll Yeah, but everybody sucks in the first five weeks. Yeah And setups then yes, and I think I'll be in a devote I was gonna be really good again this year too, so yeah

Okay, that's that's where I mind that this back three. This is the strongest three defensive center backs parents like with with me Osgood Robinson and Hadaab a You're gonna follow me. You've always been a big teenager. That's you man I'm sorry was the was Matt Miyazga the the 2023 MLS defender of the year miles Robinson a US national team center back I'm sorry is the third center back not best 11 for you. Is that not good enough? Is this accurate Tom just dressed like a teenager at all? Yeah, show everybody your teenage tattoo. Come on, buddy So we're all Weird things to angle in on just what an odd thing day and you just made fun of Portland Timbers and a van all

right I'm moving us so long a billion goals last year so be clear we're all over on both of those right it seems like it yeah you just wanted to disagree with me LAFC 56 and a half points LAFC 56 and a half points Gosh you haven't gone first. Okay, I'm gonna go I'm gonna go over here. I I made these lines too low. No, I don't think you did I think we're just getting into the teams. We're gonna start to get into the teams We believe in less Doyle you said it on our preview show We did with happy foot sad foot pot of it may not be pretty, but it's going to fit. Everything they've done this off season is to fit what Steve Torundel has played most often.

I just think it's more cohesive with enough returning talent that if it takes a little bit for whoever else is on the wing to settle in, whether it's David Martinez or whoever, Buonga can carry things. It better be David Martinez. If it's not, then what are we doing? I don't disagree with you, but like, he's a young player that you need to have play at the level consistently until Tom's lookalike, Antoine Griezmann, shows up in the league. So it's the nicest thing you've ever said to me. Yeah, probably. It's gonna look good.

You've got extra Yukon blood in there and Kosi Tafari. So like, there's a lot to be positive about in this. I do like that. I do like that. I will say I'm going to pick under just by a bit. I think this is like a, you know, mid 50s team. Like if they had kept Kike Olavera, I think that they would have had a little bit more juice to handle the fixture congestion. I'm a big David Martinez fan, but like he's 18. Boanga is going to be carrying a lot. I'm a big David Martinez fan, but he's 18. Boanga's gonna be carrying a lot.

Olivier Giroud looked cooked. Jeremy Obobese's been rough the past, I love that signing, but he's been rough the past couple years. Nkosi Tafare, I thought, was best 11 caliber in 2023. He was benched last year. He has literally never played next to a starting MLS center back his entire career. For sure.

For sure. No, I like... It's just wild to think about. Yeah. No, I wrote in my breakout players piece, I was like, this could be the year for Nkosi Tafari. Like he has the talent to be as... But like they changed so much and I think it ended up in a place where they really only

have one club to play, right? They're going to play that 5-2-3, and they're going to be excellent at it. But I liked this team better over the past couple years when they tried to have a little bit of a ball and play that 4-3-3 a little bit. Yeah, I'm leaning over, I've kind of went back and forth on this one because I can see that path where, you know, they're just really solid and 53 to 55 points. But they've just sown such consistency and you look at a lot of the players they brought in, Mark Delgado, this style lends itself well.

Yes, it's not going to be the most aesthetic, it's not going to be the crew or it's not going to be Messy's Miami in terms of possession and breaking teams down with the ball. But they're really, really good at the fastball they have. And that really works over the regular season. And Danny Belonga, I don't want to jinx it, but he's a robot. The dude is never injured and never tired. So as long as that's happening, they're going to win a lot of games. I remember I wrote something like that about Gio Reyna like literally a week before his

Hamstring exploded what that was back in 2021 and like he's never been the same. So I just I hope you didn't just Jinx Denny Boanga the way I jinxed Gio Reyna You wrote about a 17 year old player that they had I even I wrote I wrote that he seemed like he was indestructible And that he seemed like he was made for Concacav World Cup qualifiers. You spiked the ball that early on that one is all I'm trying to say. Fair. So are you, you're over? Yeah, I'm over.

And Dave, you're over? Yeah. All right. I'm going under with LASC, not by a lot. Obviously, I'm the guy who made the line, so I think they're pretty accurate. 54 and a half. It's inside of trading. Yeah.

54 and a half, I have the Galaxy, and I have Atlanta United. So. And I haven't gone first, so I'm gonna tell you. Okay. I'm slightly over on the Galaxy, and I'm slightly under on Atlanta United I had to be talked into moving them up to 54 and a half

I'm under on both. We've seen we've seen so many times over the past five years. Everybody's like, oh my god Look at this Atlanta United roster. They spent so much money It's gonna be so good and every like each of the last five years I've been like yes, this team is going to compete in the Eastern Conference and like we're doing it again And like I don't know on your felt for it again. I felt for it again over. Let's go I trust the pieces that are in place more in terms of like the infrastructure again Like Garth Lagerway to Chris Henderson to Ronnie Dila and Miguel Amarone all these like all these are repeatable. I like I like the structure here. I think it's it over for me

I just got to read this Henry Elliot in the chats at Doyle's first writing It was talking about how unsinkable the new ship caught the Titanic is Just such a good line off the back of that. I'm under on both these teams I think we're underestimating just how much loss there is for the Galaxy, not just Ricky Pooj, but now you add Payne still inside of that. I love the Christian Ramirez pickup. I think they're gonna be a cup contender when we get to the playoffs.

I just don't think they're going to be consistently there for most of the season. And I think in this five year span, I wouldn't be shocked if they win two or three. I think this year though, that's a challenge. And with Atlanta it's not just adjusting to a lot of new things. It's still a question mark around Moronchuk and like a lot of the spine. I expect Gregorson to be better. He was not an elite center back in Major League Soccer last year and like no one else in the back line is as a defender. I love Amador in possession. I like what Brooks Lenin will probably bring

and then in goal as well. So I think for me, both these teams I'm gonna go under. So I haven't given the galaxy yet. This wasn't over for me easily until the Joseph Paintsl news. He's gonna be out expected to be around six to eight weeks and already without Ricky Pooch. Again, I think that they're still gonna be really, really good, but you gotta work with the info that you have. Is the pain still thing six to eight weeks from the

start of the season or six to eight weeks from when the injury was announced last week? When I reported it, what was that, Monday? I was told six to eight weeks from that. So that was, you know, then that puts it five to seven weeks might, he might miss the first four weeks of the season. Yeah. But then you're also talking about missing preseason, right? And so having not been like ready to play a full 90. Let me tell you this. Joseph Payne's always ready to play a full 90.

New album drops in a week. So get ready, locked in. He's ready to go. I do, I will say this, Josh Guestman, we had Alan to do our preview, Corner of the galaxy. I agree with what he said, which is you don't need to replace Ricky You're gonna change your style. You're gonna concede less goals. You're gonna play a little bit You can replace him in the aggregate We got Giambi He is he's that type of player.

No, like it's like it's 100 percent true. They're going to turn the ball over in bad spots much less often. They'll probably play a little bit deeper. I think that they'll put the ball on Royce's foot, but basically only in attacking positions. Right. Like you want him to stay high. You want him to be connected to that front line. And then you trust the central midfielders, Sean Davis and Edwin Cerrillo was fantastic last year.

And then the new kid, Sanabria from Uruguay. Did I go over on this one? I think you did. Yeah, I did. So I'm still feeling it. You wanna change it? You can change it if you want. No, no, I'm still feeling it. You change if you want. No no I'm still you talk yourself out of it. So Tommy you over a little bit. No I'm slight under just because. And again so the paint so one is big to me. Mark Royce wasn't playing when I was in Coachella. I like and he's not

a great bet to play 2500 minutes. Yeah. And when you keep plugging taking those pieces out like it's just feels more likely to me that they're slightly under again. I still think that they're going to be very good. And I think what they care most about is peaking when Ricky pooch is back ahead of the playoffs. And I think prop bet, prop bet Amir al-Gharsis defender of the year. No, not taking it. Let me ask you, I'll take the field in danger of getting us off track and never finishing this. How much Sean Davis stock do you have this year? I think he's solid. I do worry about the progressive passing.

I think that he's a level below Mark Delgado and certainly Gaston Purgman at that. So it's going to be, until they get Cinebria up to speed, I think it's going to be a little bit ugly at times. But then once Ricky comes back, and hopefully that will happen this year, like, he's kind of ideal because he's just a bodyguard. You know, like, it's like the Rodrigo De Paul thing with Messi for Argentine. It's just like, if he's over there, I'm 15 yards away and anybody who comes near him They're gonna feel it

My favorite kind of player so just so I'm clear we've got over Tom you went over on Atlanta United and us two went under Yeah, and then LA Galaxy Doyle went over and us two went under Great. Let's rock and roll 53 and a half points. Columbus Crew and Minnesota United. I'm going to start on the crew. This is a big drop from last year. They were what a 66 point team from last year. It's tough to lose two players as good as Cucho and Christian Ramirez. And I'm sure that Isatoll has, I'm sure he has a plan for replacing it, but like we're a week away from the season and Jason Russell Rowe is good, but he's not Cucho and I don't

think he's Christian Ramirez. And like, is it Dylan Shambost or is he going to be deeper in midfield? Is it Eziel Jackson? Either way, it's such a jarring change from who this team was. It's hard not to see a pretty serious regression coming here, especially because look, that back line is not getting any younger. Stephen Maher is in his 30s now. Rudy Camacho was excellent last year.

He's in his mid 30s. Um, it just It feels like they were On the knife's edge and maybe slipped off of it a little bit So a big regression and i'm actually going to take the under for this team 53 and a half points Um, I think they'll be closer between 50 You know below know, below that, just below that. I'm with Doyle here. I thought that this was going to be an unpopular opinion given how

much praise the three of us have given the Columbus crew, but apparently I'm following the tide here. I echo everything you say. There's nothing more to add really, but again, I think it is worth hammering home that like, just because we go under doesn't mean that I think that they're going to finish in 12. There's just too many question marks with this team. And again, if you agree a deal for a designated player nine and a DP 10 right now, when do they debut? Probably not until March, maybe the end of February. Like right?

Like so starting with that, there's too many question marks for me to go over. So I'm under. Andrew Johnson in the chat says it'll be Chase Adams to reply. Yeah, right. As long as they play the US Virgin Islands every week. He's on pace to set. Yeah, right. As long as they play the U.S. Virgin Islands every week. He's on pace to set the Golden Boot record. It is not a bold claim, Tom, because I'm going to go under as well. So I think all three of us kind of have the same thinking.

We're group think on the crew. Up or down, it doesn't matter. It's just one of those things where they got rid of Zeller Ayan, they brought in Rossi, they moved Aidan Morris. All those things happened and the reality was Cucho is the second best player in the league. And so replacing that and filling in for that, I love Wilfred Nansay, I'm excited to see other players get opportunity. I'm excited to see him push a Jason Russell Roe into being better than we thought he could be. And you know, I've got my Taha Brunstock and all that

other stuff going on this year. But like, there's going to be a massive drop off because you are missing the thing that made all of it work at a crazy high level. Yet they will continue to be competitive because they're better at everything else than most teams and they have more vision and like they stick to their guns more than other teams will week in and week out in the regular season. And I think Columbus selling Cucho is acknowledgement of like you're fighting the salary cap monster as a winner. No, it's an acknowledgement that Kucho wants to play at the World Cup. For sure. That's it. It's not a cool but it's also on the back end of a lot of these pieces moving and you got to take some time to reset it and rebuild it for the future around whether it's Rosie or another piece or whatever it is like, it and

Morris leaving Sean Zawadzki is not not gonna leave right you're starting to put in the next few pieces for the next three year run that you can build around Somebody I was talking to a front office exec for another club They were like they're like yeah, you know We wish we could have one more midfield and the way that he was talking was like kind of like a depth rotations kind Of piece and he goes ah, you know, I call clean. Oh, I like it Columbus, was Zawadzki. I was like, did you think that was going to happen for anything less than several million dollars? Like, yeah, everybody likes Zawadzki. Let me follow up with saying, uh, I'm over on Minnesota United. I love this Minnesota

United. Has Wes been, has Wes been texting you? Yeah. Wes Brine texted me last night. He's like, Minnesota United are going to end up at 64 points this year. Wait, the name of the article that he texted me is the case for Minnesota United. Which I think he wrote. I literally just got it.

I haven't done it yet. I recorded something for Minnesota Aurora yesterday. So I've been on the phone with him, but I was already sold. Me and Tom talked about this a few weeks ago and Tom was bringing up some team. I think he was talking about the galaxy or someone and he's like, who else?

And I immediately brought up Minnesota United. They returned most of what I liked last year. They've improved that center back, I think, which is a huge one for them. You have pieces like Pereira that weren't here when it started last year. And you guys know from the group chat, I've been high on Kelvin Yoboa from day one.

I called him my MLS MVP 2025 finalist. Like I did with Evander two years ago. You are welcome world for existing. And I do it once again. This line is in a really good spot. I'm leaning a slight over, but I do see a scenario in which third place to like 10th is really, really tight in the West.

Last year, the fourth place in the East was 52 points. In 2023, fourth place in the West was 51 points. I'm thinking something more like that where one result is going to change a lot of the seeding between again like third and tenth. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me and this was the point that West made is like, yeah, that's what happened to Minnesota last year They had like eight straight weeks where they were missing all their players and they didn't win a game

This year they don't have that happening and they have their whole roster from the jump They have their coach from the jump remember last year So it just it does feel more of a piece I had this line lower Originally that would have been a mistake which I was stoked about because it was an easy over Yeah, I think I think I'm a slight over on this one as well I don't think that I don't think they're gonna make Wes's dreams come true. I don't think this is a 65 point team But you know, 55 points feels entirely like that's three points better than they were last year. I think that's entirely

gettable. Wes is in the chat and he literally just wrote Thomas so pumped I don't have his phone number. Tom, were you under? No, I'm over. All of us are over on that one. Cool. And we're all of us under on Columbus? Yes. How far under are you guys?

Like, would it shock you if they ended up on 47 points? Probably, yeah. No, it wouldn't because... To be clear, that's saying they're like a play-in team. No, well, so 47, that's seventh place last year. Again, it varies but I like again, I I don't I wouldn't be shocked to see them in seventh I'd be very surprised to see them in the playing game, but Seventh is again. There's a lot of good teams in East that we're gonna get to there

I think Wilfred non say having been there for as long as he is and having things as cohesive and whatever I mean his Montreal team was a 65 point team. Like he built that, it was a two year build. I just don't think it drops off that far. And so I would be shocked if they were down in a seventh, eighth place conversation. Jason Russell Rowe over 11 and a half goals. Oh, that's a tough line.

MLS comps only? MLS only? Yes, MLS comps only. Regular season only yeah I'm gonna believe in well, I'm gonna believe in wolf and go over I Was trying to work out my mind when are they gonna get a DP not because like if he starts 28 games It's obvious Tom's already drafted the unknown DP nine So I'm gonna go under because I think that they're gonna sign a DP nine fair enough 52 and half points the New York Red Bulls and Charlotte FC

over over over over on both of these is what I was just saying with that there's I think a lot of good teams in Eastern Conference I love both of these teams where they sit right now let's's start with Charlotte. They bring back all of their defense. They again, what they missed was one true star attacker, one dude who's just going to brute force your way to points in terms of give him the ball, clear out and go. Patrick Ajamon. And that's Patrick Ajamon. Patrick Ajamon showed good moments, but it wasn't like, oh man, Pat bail us out because

we're stuck nil nil right now. Wilfred Zaha is that dude. And then Wilfred Zaha is going to open up more space for Patrick Ajamon. And Wilfred Zaha is going to open up more space for Liela Bada. Liela Bada is going to get his first full preseason, Goss theorem here. Another Goss theorem candidate is Pep Biel. Last year they did not have enough options or enough quality in attack. This year they do and they're bringing back the same structure below that.

I'm all the way in our chart of c and and i feel pretty similar about the red bulls can i ask you a question about my own theorem what's the policy on like a tim reem is he goss theorem eligible how long does it take i don't think so to age back in a decade away god serum for a 35 year old or 36 year old he is that that feels weird a Decade away is not enough for you to allow to be readjust. Okay. I'm thinking about it I I would like to acknowledge out the gate as the chat starts talking about this But I understand I will end up having not enough points in MLS to make up for the amount of teams I pick like however this finishes. I'm gonna have to write teams over and not enough teams under whatever I'm gonna go over on both of these though you said it about

Cincinnati and that's fine do we think Red Bulls are gonna be the best defensive team in the league no but they'll be in the discussion yeah it just feels like the first time they've brought in a ready to start adult center back Sean Neal is has solidified himself as one of the best at what he does. There's going to be a ton of destroyers. If Cornell plays at close to the level he played in the playoffs, this is going to be one of the best defensive teams. And that doesn't include Timo Werner stuff and whatever else is going on on that side

of things. So I think I'm going to go over on them and all the things Tom said about Charlotte. Somebody. Go ahead. Real quick on the Red Bulls that Chopra Moteng has been freaking awesome this this off this preseason. I'm hearing a lot of similar things about Chopra Moteng that I was hearing from people about Emil Forsberg this time last year. That he was going to miss half the season. And the team was going to go to the toilet without him. That they made MLS Cup final because he was really good. Somebody, somebody

among the consensus teams always disappoints. Right? And like we've gone through the the five, yeah, the five consensus teams in the Eastern Conference. I think you guys took the over on all five teams. Yeah, I think so. Oh, no, other than Columbus. And Miami. Oh, that's right.

You took the under on Miami. But like, I don't know. Like on paper, I like the way it looks. No, we took the under on Columbus. Yeah, so I said that after I corrected myself. Um. Sorry, I thought I said that after I corrected myself. So I thought I said that because I didn't know which one of us was way. I like the way it looks on paper for both these teams. My concern about Charlotte is that

Ashley Westwood has played about 15,000 minutes over the past four years. And he's 35 years old. And I don't trust them to figure out a way to create goals if he's not out there for another 3000 minutes this year. Because what we saw last year, when they got Pep Biel, who's a number 10, Dean Smith was like, you're an inverted playmaking winger. And we want to have Ashley Westwood and two piano carriers in central midfield. So to your

point, Tom, they do have more attacking talent than I think they have had. But I don't I don't see the will to use it and to like sort of dial back the Defensive stance of the team a little bit and that really sort of pigeonholes them into a counter-attack or nothing kind of kind of blueprint I I think that that's The first part of the defensive ethos is a good thing Like like what they need is a couple of special players and

Is Sir Minty standing just off screen pointing a gun at you? That's what I should have for it. Blink twice if you need help. You clearly need help. You clearly need help. Yeah, yeah, you gotta be more specific when you ask me that question It's just you can't blanket it Tom would never rat look at this man He would never rat on anyone even if that was the case

Let me as for the Red Bulls as for the Red Bulls They went into the toilet without Emil Forsberg in the middle of last year, but he was coming off a long season He never got fully fit. He was integrating I actually kind of expect him to be healthier this year and like that doesn't mean 90 minutes every week, but like if he plays 27, 28 games, whether Chupa Moting is Cory Burke or better than Cory Burke, if Forsberg is out there for 2300 minutes, I feel like this is an easy over for the Red Bulls. If they have two of three, two out of Forsberg, Trouble Moteng and Lewis Morgan starting 28 games, I think it's an over. Yeah. Yeah. I think

I'm there too. Should I have made this higher? What if I had put this at 55 and a half? You probably would have scared me away. Yeah. Yeah. Cause I, I haven't, I've like trawled ahead of them. Um, again, I think it's I've like charled ahead of them again I think it's gonna be tight with these two again. It's MLS anything in this window is gonna Do you have both these teams ahead of Columbus? Yes Yeah, all right, I have Charlotte Red Bulls and Atlanta ahead of Columbus Doyle were you under on Charlotte? I was trying to talk myself into it, but no, this will be

53, 57 points somewhere around there. I think I'm over on both these teams. Next up is Orlando City, 51 and a half points. I'll just say that I'm under on them. And it's not because I think they're bad. I just think that the the rest of the East is so good. I think they'll miss I love Edward at to esta man and I think he'll make the team better overall, but they're bad. I just think that the the rest of the East is so good. I think they'll miss. I love Edward Atuesta, man, and I think he'll make the team better overall, but they're going to miss Cartagena's ball winning ability and field coverage. The new Croatian winger. It wouldn't surprise me if he was a better overall player than Faku Torres, but also a less productive player than

Faku Torres. And what they really need from that spot is productivity, especially if they're getting the ball more because of Atuesta versus Cartagena. And then the thing that really bothers me is like. Schlegel is still starting center back. So, yeah, under and it wouldn't surprise me if this was a team that was kind of fighting for their play. I still think they're get in, but we're talking like the eight, nine game type of thing. You don't think this is a Bricolo breakout season?

I hope so for Orlando's sake. No disrespect to Schlegel, he's a fine third center back in this league, but if he's one of your two starters, you're not going to win MLS Cup and you're not going to be around 60 points. Yeah. I'm going to go under here as well. I don't love the swap for and not purposefully, obviously, from Cartagena to Atahuesta for this team to do it on top of losing your star DP and then you talk about some of the issues in the spine.

Last year I thought the drop off would be even bigger from two years ago because of some of the underlying numbers. They ended up like rescuing themselves towards the end of the year. I think it can be a competitive team in the playoffs. I would be surprised if they're at where I think some of these other teams have taken jumps like a Red Bulls and a Charlotte Yeah, I can I think that this is a really well set line. Good job It's a slight under for me, but it's one of those where like again

I don't you're gonna immediately try to make a joke that I'm saying that exactly an exact point total But this is one of you said at 49 and a half I'd probably go over because I think that there's more scenario like it's one of those that's really tight it hinges on a few points here yeah what are you hearing about the Croatian winger that they spent the DP slot on so I've heard and look obviously Orlando are excited about it they're the team who signed them their team was scattered and they see it when I hear from other teams unprompted when they're like yeah man like that's a good player, I usually take real note of that, and I got a couple texts about Pasalic from another team.

In a positive way. But when I tell you unprompted that Connecticut pizza is superior, you're like, no, I don't take any note of that at all. There are things that I won't change my mind on. Marco Pasalic is not one of them. Which pizza is? that at all I there are things that I won't change my mind on wait Marco Paschalich is not one of them which is which Orlando Center forward do you think scores the most goals this year and I'm from Eero and Rikki that he's the starter all year yeah he's so much I'm saying I just think he's so

much better defensively than Duncan McGuire is that I think he's going to play from the jump for Oscar Pereja. And look, if you're playing 70 minutes every game and your competition's playing 20 minutes, I'm going to bet on the guy who plays it. And his underlyings are really good too. So this is not a guy who's out, it's not Maxie Aruti. He's not out there for defensive purposes and 35 yard shots. He actually gets in the box. So I, you know, I love this kid. And if I was, look, if I was Orlando, I would consider selling Duncan McGuire so that I could go out and get, you know, within the league and go out and get another center back or, you know, another U-22 central midfielder or something because

they are thin. And that's the other thing about this team. They just don't have any depth at crucial spots. Get RSL on the phone. Duncan McGuire to Salt Lake City. I like that. I like that for trade him straight up for Elias Manuel. You think Elias will report? Yeah. I think he would go to Orlando. He's Brazilian. He has to go to Orlando. It's Oasis. Are we all under on that one? Yeah. All three of us were under. All right. NYCFC 49 and a half points. I'm going to say something that I'm going to say the under while also saying I got to interview Pascal Jansen in

Coachella for five minutes and I was ready to I was looking for brick walls while I was talking to him and there wasn't because we were in the middle of a soccer field But I'll tell you man. You're not a very smart guy. Are you? No, no, no, no But like I really like him I just think there's too many questions and with the Santy Rodriguez the Botafogo Reports if that comes to pass like so Santy didn't play in their last couple preseason games the team told me he had a knock Transfer window sometimes knocks happen air quote and around around a potential move

So again, I'm not saying that that's definitely happening or definitely not happening But if he goes and like you just don't have like again Alonzo Martinez I do like a lot but the other players are all like Maxi Maxi Morales is the only one that is proven at this level and again he's 37 or 38 I think. I'm saying I'm gonna go under with this team if the question here being are they as good as they were last year and for a team that felt like it had to come together during the year. It feels like there's less coming back. I think they're Preseason game last game Hanis wolf was the only starter who had played on the team before So like yeah, I get that a lot of those pieces are gonna, you know, Tiago Martins all those players

They're gonna be fine. They're gonna be there Matt freeze all of that But there's unknown and then the answers are normally young pieces that have no experience. And over the last few years, NYCFC has not hit on those young pieces and they haven't hit on them quickly. So as much as the belief is that the new manager sort of gets them going in that direction, to do that quickly is really, really tough. So my assumption would be that NYCFC is not better than they were last year. And then I'm looking back, because I'm reminding myself last year, they finished the year,

they finished three wins in their last four against Red Bull, Cincinnati, and Nashville that were like weird moments in the season. But if they don't win, they're completely off this number. Yeah, but they did win. You think they're gonna be Red Bull's 5-1 this year? Probably not, but they did win. You think they're going to be Red Bull's 5-1 this year? Probably not, but they did win. And they brought in Pascal Janssen to make sure that they get more out of Augustino Hayda

and Julian Fernandez in particular, those two guys who I think like both of them, I could not figure out why they were not playing more the second half of the season because they looked awesome anytime they were on the field. I'm going over on this one. I am a little bit worried that Justin Hack is apparently the replacement for James Sands. I think that's a downgrade in a crucial spot. But I look, man I didn't think much of Nick Cushing as a coach. I think that we're likely to see an upgrade on vibes and player development and that's a little unfair because Nick Cushing actually did a good job of developing some of the homegrown players. But like those high end guys I expect to hit. So yeah, I'm going slightly over on this one.

All right. I already went under so. Yeah, I got it listed. Colorado Rapids, forty seven and a half points. Over. Over. I'm going over. Again Doyle, you've said this before, this play style when it's cohesive and when the players fit, there's usually a pretty high floor, whether or not

the ceiling is high is debatable going by team by team. 47.5 points for the Colorado Rapids, I think that they're going to be around that. Last year they had 50. I don't think that they're worse than last year. I know that this isn't in a vacuum. That's not the only factor. There are games where they overperformed or underperformed. I just think that they're going to go over 47 and a half because I trust that George Mojavec and Hafen Navahu,

that was real. And if the defense is better and it can't realistically be any worse, then they're going to be better than last year. I don't think they're better than last year. I think there's no replacing Mois Bumpito. I think that his departure changed everything about how they were able to function. If you look, I think they only won three of their last 15 games across all competitions, you know, from mid July onwards, like the

last three games before League's Cup, from that point onwards, they were way underwater, both in terms of goals, you know, scored and allowed, but also expected goals. If you look at it, they just couldn't stop anybody in transition. Without Pompito, they didn't have someone to cover and make those world-class athlete plays in behind. I want to believe in this team because I just like their approach to team building. And I hope that they have found the next Moispom Pito in the draft, one of these guys, but I just, I think it's unlikely. So I'm going to under.

I think, um, and well, the tough part is you put, you set the line under what they were last year. So already, if you think you're taking a step back, it's a tough line there. I don't love the way they've tried to replace. I like Awuziem as a player, actually love him as a player. I don't love his fit with this group. I like Koudy Pietro a ton. So maybe this team takes a step forward offensively and a step back defensively. And I don't know where to land in the middle of that with this group. So I'm going to take them as an under right now. But I don't love this line.

I think it would have been easier if you said it towards what they finished last year. So yeah, all right. So I'm causing David pain. That's what I was looking for. I knew that you were taking a second. How do I respond to this compliment? And instead of saying thank you, David, it was how do I was I knew that you were taking a second How do I respond to this compliment and instead of saying thank you David? I'm causing you pain that makes me happy. Well, that's that's the job If you came out and said 55 and a half right 50 last year 49 and a half

I think it's a pretty easy safe to say like alright, they take a half step back no matter what This is already the half step back and the the question is, do they hit there or not? I do think there's a level of commitment to both the style and the group right now. You have these guys who are like, this club gave me a chance. I wanna be a part of this, talking to Georgie Presees and that's what it sounds like.

And I'll- Up the fucking pits. Exactly, and a lot of, let's just be real, a lot of MLS teams don't try every week. Not like don't try. Right, no, for sure. It just doesn't feel correct a lot of weeks. And I don of, let's just be real, a lot of MLS teams don't try every week. Not like don't try. No, for sure. It just doesn't feel correct a lot of weeks. And I don't know that Colorado is in one of

those conversations. And so that's where it's hard with this line to say like, they're not going to take games off. Plus you've got altitude and all of that going, you know what? I'm flipping. I'm over. Suck it, Doyle. You've officially been invited. So this area is where it's hardest, right? You can look at really good teams and say they're either going to be great or just very good and above and beyond. We have, because this is MLS, 14 teams. Their over-unders are between 41 and 50. And that's the nature of it every year. So it is really tough in this. This is the margin where we could even generally be right about a team and still kind of miss on the over- this, this is the margin where like we could even generally be right about a team and still kind of

Missing the over-under because this is the middle of the pack Yeah, and again one random point one random win one random loss an injury Somebody somebody gets on a heater, you know goalkeeper You know has two bad weeks in a row like like anything like that can just change the complete complexion Like we see it every single year I've had speech from time I just have to throw a hitty on hoodie on cuz Tom's just throwing bars right now one single moment one single mistake one single issue one single slip and the whole season changes Austin FC and the Houston Dynamo 46 and a half points

we've moved into Texas Austin FC have spent 30 million dollars on their frontline Over I'm going over Austin under Houston Talk us through it. I'm gonna believe in the Austin attack change. I'm gonna believe in I think already upgrade through the spine I don't know how many games Ilya starts this year I don't know if the style ends up being cohesive to what he is. But he'll make the right choice. To what he is.

Oh my God, dude, the sweatshirt that Happyfoot Sadford has literally is a sweatshirt with a goal and it says Ilié made the right choice. It is an unreal, I need to go buy that sweatshirt. I've talked about it twice now, I gotta go purchase it. I like Austin's defensive spine and I'm gonna believe in the attacking pieces taking over. We talked about it in our Austin preview, which is going to drop.

I've got Brandon Vasquez over 10 assists. I think we see the best of Brandon Vasquez as a dominant center forward force, where in Cincinnati, he was a finisher half the time and he was a creator half the time based on who was there. And now it's like his team, his identity. And then belief in Bukkari and Ozone Zuni to just do play their roles at a minimum if not then elevate their game over that so I'm going over on Austin

You flipped me you flipped me I didn't this was one of the ones that I didn't feel the most strongly about I Looked at it and wanted to go over and then I was like, alright Well, if I go over 30 times is what's the point of doing any of this? to go over and then I was like alright well if I go over 30 times what's the point of doing any of this? And I had them under initially not because I don't like them but like there are four teams below them that I'm gonna go over with in the west and I was like alright just math I have to take somebody to go under. But guys who talked me back as I leaned over to go to my computer there I flipped Austin ahead of Houston in my predictions that are

still fluid of of course, but I'll go over for Austin FC. I think that Brandon Vasquez, the ceiling here, the floor here rather is really high. It's probably too, but I'm worried about the transition. Houston. I'm going to be under on Houston. Oh, okay. That's, that's, that's kind of where the flip was. You talked me into it. So again Again if Houston had a DP 10 right now, I'd probably feel different But I think that there's too many questions there and ensure this question was awesome How will this all fit and again defensive transition this is gonna look really dumb What if this is 20 23 2.0 with just different players and more money?

I don't think it will be but I can't rule out that possibility still you won me over gots over Austin under Houston. I'm man I'm on the fence on both of these I just I feel like we've seen a lot of resilience from this Houston team over the past couple years right like even playing without Coco even playing without you know Aceh Aceh this is a team that's figured out a way to get points and to get on the ball and use that to collect points. And like when we were talking about the Rapids, teams that play hard every week and collect points during the dog days of summer because they're just out there giving 5% more than the team they're lining up against. I don't think they're going to lose that. If anything, I think they're going to have a little bit

more of that. You think Jacqueline comes on the field barefoot Griffin Dorsey style week two of the season? I just hope that Kaelin Carr is calling that game for us. I just absolutely dying for that to happen. So I just look, it's tough because is you know, Ponce wasn't convincing and Anali is still gonna be hurt and to your point Tom, they don't have a DP number 10 and I'm worried a little bit about goal where I thought that Steve Clark was really good last year so there's all these concerns but like I gotta make one gut and vibes pick in this, and Houston's gonna be that for me. I just think the vibes are gonna be good.

My gut says trust Houston, even though, if anything, this line feels maybe a little bit too high. As for Austin, I'm a big Denny Pereira fan. I think that he's going to do a lot of great things as a free eight, connecting that midfield to that attack. I just, I'm not sure those pieces are gonna fit together beyond that that well.

So I'm going under like slightly under for Austin. Like I expect them to be a playoff team, maybe play in team. But it's, you know, I'm less convinced by the spine than you guys, I think are specifically that central defense. Yeah, I think that's fair. You do we think we can get like a TikTok iso cam on Jack McGlynn on Houston, it'll be me and

Connor McGlynn, the only two watching it. It'll still be a great time. No, you were just on scuffed. You know for a fact that half the guys on scuffed will be watching that Jack McGlynn iso cam. Shout out Sanjay. Alright, I guess we're moving along then to 45 and a half. I got three teams on 45 and a half. Vancouver Whitecaps, St. Louis City, Portland Timbers. Whoever wants it, take it. Vancouver under St. Louis over Portland over. I'm worried about Vancouver with, again,

there's off-field stuff with the ownership group being sold, that's never easy for front office and the staff. They have unknown coach coming in. What they were really solid under Vanni Sartini and again the move to change coaching was to raise your ceiling. That's the play doesn't mean like it still could happen but I think that you took away more predictability in this team. And I just talked about it with the Western Conference. There

are just teams that I like more around them in this in this bucket. For instance St. Louis City important St. Louis. I think that they're going to them in this in this bucket. For instance, St. Louis City important St. Louis. I think that they're going to be really really strong this season. They I really like the additions. They made a full season of hortal and toy shirt is going to be awesome for me. And like again, I like Roman Birkingle. It could be the difference between you know, finishing in 10th or finishing in 8th right in a positive way

and then Portland Simbers I'm still there I think that they're going to look they will look much different than last year stylistically because David DaCosta in for Evander like those two players are very different they're both DP10s but DaCosta can play wide DaCosta will do more against the ball he won't have the same goal scoring numbers as Evander and probably not the same creativity at least it'd be unrealistic to expect that immediately. But the idea with this team is to improve the defense and he should help with that. I don't think he won't fix it all himself because that'd be stupid to say about a GP 10. But I think that there's more regression to the mean on that side of the ball because you look individually. I like a lot of those

pieces. I do. So I'm going go over Portland over St. Louis under Vancouver I'm gonna go under Portland under Vancouver over St. Louis So I think the St. Louis line that we set for The show was 1.5 points per game which would net them out like around 50 50 Which I kind of felt okay about it's the pace They played on the last 10 years 10 games of last year Post the summer moves. I still feel pretty good about most of the st. Louis stuff Even with the huge caveat being I have no idea what olaf melberg is as a manager and I don't know That's the worry, right?

I don't know what he's gonna if he's gonna keep things the way they are But my bigger fear is I don't know how he reacts to problems and I don't know how he reacts to The summer and all of that And so that part really scares me but yet I like just the floor for st. Louis overall. Yeah, Vancouver I was high on coming into my preview and we did it with Michael McCall and like just what Tom talked about the Fact that it's the last year of the lease on the stadium. The ownership group has talked about selling they fired the coach does not scream vibes with that club. So I find that also they were also super lucky with injuries last year. Yeah, like they did not lose many man games to injury. And look, the bill eventually comes due with that sort of thing. And I hope it doesn't because I really like the the gold and white partnership. You know, I really enjoyed Jaden Nelson for a brief moment with Toronto FC, where he was kind of like a pressing 10 in the old Latif Blessing role.

And I want to see him do that. And like because he's got so much talent. Like I I want it to come together but you can you can see the drop off kind of happening and that's why I set the line where I did. Like this is a regression from last year, right? This is what three four points under where they finished last year and it feels like it could end up being more than that. Uh I'm I'm still man, this is a tough line. I need to come back to it. Portland, I'm under. Real quick, let me throw out because I was just looking up to remind myself.

KuBoss only started 23 games because of Copa America. So they were fortunate with injuries, but if he's around, I think you'd give up some players to injury basically, to have him around more often just because of how important he is. You'd give up some players to injury basically to have him around more often just because how important he is On saying that I do wonder if a guy like that is looking for the exit door Not because of anything i've heard just because of all the things we've talked about Yeah, and also like if you're an mls team that needs a midfield ball winner and transition stopper And you could pay cash now. Yeah.

Like that's he would be way high up my list if I was NYCFC. You know, like that would make that would make a lot of sense for for what they in Colorado. Colorado's in well, Colorado doesn't have the DP slot open, unfortunately, but like they like this is a guy that answers some questions. I hope Vancouver keep them. I hope they're wrong that we're wrong because I've really

enjoyed watching this team. And I am going to pick over, just slightly over. Portland, I'm going to pick slightly under. I know that they were worse defensively in terms of their actual numbers than they were in their underlying numbers last year. I'm not sure how that gets better, because I don't think any of the pieces they've added

are necessarily 100% starters, for one. And for two, they were by far the most productive team in the league in terms of what their DPs gave them last season. I think it was like 68 combined goals and assists. And one of those guys is gone. The best of them is gone. season. I think it was like 68 combined goals and assists. And one of those guys is gone, the best of them is gone. And the other two are in their 30s. I just feels like there's a there's

a very clear bear case to be made for Portland. So I'm going under on them. And who is the third one? St going Louis City. This is tough, the last season in Teut particular but Simon Bet We don't know if he's goi a 3421. Um and it especially for a team that hasn't had a good hit rate on centerbacks. And look, Berkey was heroic two years ago, and he was really good last year. And if that trend line continues, it's like that is going to cost you four or five points. And when we're talking about this big scrum in the middle,

four or five points is the difference between fifth place, sixth place, and tenth. I don't know. I would honestly be higher on St. Louis if they had kept John Hackworth. If they had just said, you know what? What we did down the stretch here really, really worked. And we're gonna stick with that.

We have this conversation, that previews coming out this weekend with Justin and Jake of Ball Watching and I said to them like, are you surprised Hack didn't get the job? And they were like, not in comparison to who got it in like a big name coming from Europe, maybe some connection to Lutz. They were like, if it had been a USL head coach

or a retried MLS head coach, I think there would have been frustration that it just wasn't Hack again. But I'm still surprised it didn't, felt like Hack had the chance, earned it, and then it didn't get it. Yeah. But I mean, maybe tailed off at the end there a little bit. Same thing happened to Peter Luxon for SC Dallas.

But you're not playing for anything. Well, you know you're not playing for anything. Yeah. At that point. Slightly over on Vancouver, slightly under on Saint Louis and Portland. Tom, you were over on Portland? Yes. Okay. Just making sure. Alright. Alright. 44 and a half points. FC Dallas and rail Salt Lake. I'm going home over on Dallas. I honestly wish that we recorded this before the Lucho trade came to be so that and they signed the center back for 3.5 million just so I could be like well the team you know it's an under right now I don't know what's gonna happen and then just take that as a cop out because not all

these teams that I'm picking over are gonna go over. I know that logically. And I can't stop myself from picking up. Bro, I don't care about the defensive issues right now. My brain is just focused on Lucho Cosa and Peter Musa. And I have to go over. I have to go over.

You have to take the under on San Jose, San Diego, in sporting Kansas City. If you don't take the under on those three teams, then this is just a completely useless. Don't tell me what to do. Tyler, by the way, we haven't done the revs yet, which I don't know if that's a good thing. I will say I appreciate the very PR copy that Tom has written, which is historic MLS season. All teams in MLS have the best season in MLS history. 30 clubs like an upward rocket blast through the standings and all the Chicago fire win the World Cup. That's what it feels like right now from Tom.

30 whites high. I'm going to go RSL under FC Dallas over. We had this convo at the end of the last show, but like Lucho in, what are you really that worried about? You need a better performance from Kumungo this year, which I have belief in and like, yeah. I remember it was Eric Quill who got Kumungo to be like the best player in next pro, right?

And like playing in a position he'd played before and like giving him some trust and things like that, which seemed confident. And also just like asking him to run at the goal and kick the ball into the goal and nothing else because Lucho is going to take care of all the rest of it. You just go there and kick the ball into the back of the net. Center back center mids the big worry. I don't know how much they're done and obviously I don't know a ton about the pieces they've

brought in where Charles a bit of a unknown. I'm a yeah big patrickson delgado fan i thought he was awesome last year so i'm going over on dallas doyle i assume you're there too because of patrickson delgado that's correct that's correct um so as i said i'm over there and that I don't feel good about an under on real Salt Lake, but it has somebody has to be on. They've made the playoffs for straight years, right? And last year, 59 points. I think that was that was a club record last year. I shouldn't have let you talk me into Austin, but they. So for making signings and for my own point completely unrelated none of this is my fault they were a different team after selling

Andres Gomez middle of last year and now Chiches gone as well and the guy that they thought was gonna to be his replacement, at least a little bit, Elias Manuel, like, he's maybe not entirely committed to the project, is what we're hearing. It's also not a replacement. Like, they, they, the reality is they didn't replace him. Yeah. Yeah.

And they're also changing their formation. I think they're playing a three-4-2-1 with Goncalves and Luna as a 2 underneath somebody, you know Axel Kai. I don't know who's the forward. Forster. He's scored some goals in preseason. That is the guy that's starting right now. The Australian guy? No, Duke. He's the new Brian White. Or Jeremy of Obesey, no. Duke. Yeah. Oh, all right. Yeah. He's the new Brian White. Okay. Or Jeremy of Oversea, right? Yeah. Um it's just I don't know. I still don't understand how Jeremy Oversea is not on this roster. I still don't understand how he

ended up on LAFC. I hope he kills it. Yeah, me too. I've always liked that guy. Um but I like yeah, he would have been perfect fit. He would have been perfect fit. But it's just so much change from a team that was so good. You could told me like, and like, look, I have a lot of faith in Pablo. He gets his guys to play hard. He usually gets them organized.

And I think that when you have a central midfield pair of Ojeda and Ineli, you're never gonna be soft, right? You're gonna create a lot of transition opportunities. But if you told me this team ended up on 39 points, I would be like, yeah, I could see it. Yeah, I could see it. They just, enough questions along the back line, enough questions along the frontline, enough questions in goal where it's like, this could, this could spin out in a way that we haven't seen happen to RSL

in a while. Um, I will say I'm still high on Marchuk and I'm still high on Luna even with me thinking they're going to go under. Like I think there's going to be a lot of pieces. I just think the the 18 goals are not going to be there. Like there's going to be this huge gap of the big finisher for all the things they do well. So Doyle is under.

Yeah. How would you feel about this team if they went out and they paid $6 million for Duncan McGuire? They're over. Yeah, I think so too. You think he would make that much of a difference? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I do too. Should we should we try to talk this one? And she's I'm wearing RSL colors.

Should we try to talk this one and she's I'm wearing RSL colors Should we try to talk this one into existence? I want to talk about their kid. It's Delightful there's new secondary. Oh my god. It's so good. It's so good It's like it's it's one of it's instantly like a top 10 MLS kit of all time I think is the first time we've ever seen a checkerboard kit in MLS The thing that comes to mind is Bo Visa which doesn't do good stuff on the field but also those are great kits. These guys are going to get paid on time at least. So wait hang on. Tom where'd you fall on RSL? Don't make me keep saying under. I don't like it but I wonder. And Doyle on Dallas you were over? I was over with you jokers and I was under

with you jokers. There's way too much consensus. We both just go. I do appreciate in the chat every like seven minutes someone will say Tom knows ball and then two minutes later someone will be like Tom's an idiot and it's just kind of this back and forth experience that's happening. The voices of. I was going to say. So now we all know what it's like to be inside Tom's head. Tom's operating three burners during the show. A lot more negative. Now, I saw somebody, I said, like, again, I love doing this exercise and yeah, we're

going to be probably wrong in a good amount of these, particularly because of how much the clump is. Like, somebody was like, I got mad and then I walked away and then I came back because I remembered you guys are just going to be wrong about a lot of things. I was like, all right, that's what I thought you got. Laminate it. That's what I said. If you're really committed to it, you better laminate it.

That's a great point. Are we moving on? Yeah. All right. Let's go to the next one. 43 and a half. Chicago Fire. I initially had this at 45 and a half.

I had to move it down based purely on the fact that they are the Chicago fire But I am easy over yeah, I'm over I have them above NYCFC in the standings Wow I felt like I had to say give you something else so that we didn't just all agree on the same thing again So move the conversation forward all right, so let's, let's say if this was 45 and a half, would we also? Yeah, it would've went over. I would've went over. So you're predicting the fire end their seven year, eight year playoffless drought this season.

Yeah. Because if it's over 40, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I do. Let's talk through it. If you take last year's bottom, or the eight teams, bottom seven teams, like from Montreal down, I think Atlanta is an it if you take last year's bottom or the eight teams bottom seven teams like from Montreal down I think Atlanta is an obvious one to make a jump and then Chicago is the other one Like I think those are gonna be the two biggest point caps this season in the Eastern Conference. I you bring in Jack Elliott alone Yeah, you bring in a genuine DP attacker who will like play minutes because he's not mainly focused on euros or whatever else is going on

Dude, Zheardan Shaqiri is ripping it up in Switzerland right now. Right! I'm glad he's home! Good for him! Amazing. He has like 20 goal contributions in 19 games. Tom goes to the Liverpool bar every week to stream his games just in case, you know, once or red you never walk alone. Tom's like, this guy played for my favorite team and we're built the exact same shape. It's perfect. The only one with calves is better than me. I think that we need to put him to the top of our Swiss league Golden Boot draft when we get around to it.

I like that. Along with Schelzen Gashi. So yeah, Jack Elliott to me is the biggest acquisition, but like it's within the context of Burrhalter coming in as coach and people have their issues with Burrhalter and certainly by the end of his time with the US, it had gone stale. But the one thing that man does for club or country is he gets the defense right. He fixes the defense and they do not give up cheap goals. I think Chris Brady is going gonna end up looking a lot better

because of that. I think he'll probably play himself into a big move overseas. And I think that having Kellen Acosta in that number six role, which I think he played really well for the US under Burrhalter, it just like all the pieces kind of slot into the right spots.

And they've had like they've added five, six new starters in this off season. And like that is a lot, but you know they're gonna be well drilled and you know they're not gonna give up cheap goals. And at the start of the season, that gets you points. Diego Luna had 12 assists last year. Brian Gutierrez over under 11 and a half. I was gonna say you need to give

a number. Yeah I thought you were asking me to come up with the over under right now. I'm like damn you have a lot of respect for me. Thanks Dave. I'm going under on that one too. Yeah I'm going under because you don't think he plays the whole year you don't think he... I'm going under on that one too. Yeah, I'm going under because you don't think he plays the whole year. You don't think he It's good here is good here is 13 and a half goal contributions over under I Think I'd go I think I go over on that cuz I think that he'll be more like the the five goals eight assists or Six goals seven like whatever it is. I think that the combo neither of goal- Neither of those was over 13 and a half. Okay. Then six goals and eight assists, rather than 11 assists.

I think that he'll be, like, he'll create chances, but I don't think that that'll be his primary responsibility. Like, this team will have other players, like Jonathan Bomba and Zyckrenaga will have plenty assists. We know how a Greg Boralto team works. Dave? I'm going to go over. I think- You think he's gonna end up with like five goals

in 12 assists type of season? Yeah, if he doesn't get sold. Yeah. Like that could happen. Which could happen and then I'd be fine because then I get the money, you know? Because I think that's the way that works. If you choose someone on the over-under,

you get the cash for the transfer. Right, it just goes straight to the soccer-wise slush fund. Exactly, it feels like, I think Kuiper is going to score like 20 goals this year. I think it's going to be more cohesive. If Gutierrez starts at the 10, like think about the players that have played at that position for Greg Borhalter and MLS. Oh, for sure. What he allows them to do, the space he creates for them. And I think Bombo will probably be more of a finisher in a lot of those moments in front of him at least to start until you know

he starts to get comfortable with the level and all of that and so you've got a lot of pieces around Gutierrez that are going to be finishers. And to your point about Kuiper's and 20 goals like that probably caused some double takes in the chat but like look at Burrhalter's history with Center Forwards and MLS including like really limited center forwards. Jossie's Artis had his best season under Greg Burrhalter. Ola Kamara had his best season under Greg Burrhalter. Kai Kamara had his best season under Greg Burrhalter. And it was all the same pattern of play. And Kipers is going to get chance after chance after chance off that pattern of play.

I'm over on the fire at 40. This is another one I set too low. This should have been 46.5. Yeah, it probably should have been. I probably still may have gone with it. Would you have gone over on 46.5? I don't know, man. I'm like pretty... There's a lot of Kool-Aid flowing around this apartment right now. I'm there like... I think that they have a real chance to even get beyond the playing game and last year The Red Bulls were on 47 points in seventh place Yeah, 50 points would not leave me utterly shocked from this team because I don't think they're gonna give up cheap goals

Let me ask one more over under with Chicago because clearly we're here for a while Hell yeah, two and a half DPS by the end of this year over under. Over. Over. You think in the summer or you think before? I think in the summer more likely. I think what they'll want to do is spend half a season figuring out who the core is and what Bombo looks like and how he's going to best operate.

And they're not gonna entirely judge their shopping by that but it's gonna inform who they shop for and how they want to integrate that whether it's kind of a free eight and go with the 433 or whether it's a you know true number ten like what they had in in Columbus with PIPA. Yeah that's I agree with you guys. I think that it'll end up with a third DP, but it but it will be in the summer. Yeah, things can change. Who knows what happens. I'm just I'm heartbroken that Weston McKenney has once again proved himself

irreplaceable for Juventus because like I had the whole I had all the fan fiction of West coming to Chicago and, you know, being for them what Michael Bradley was for Toronto a dozen years ago like that would have been that would have been wonderful but he's just so good for you right now. I don't think he's coming back. All right. Moving along Montreal. Yeah. CF Montreal 42 and a half points. This was a tough one for me to set because I looked at this roster and I thought that they were better. Yeah. Than last year and I'm really high on George Campbell and I'm

really high on Nathan Saliba and I actually thought Yakumo Rioni was pretty good last year and I'm looking forward to seeing him in what I hope will be a more functional setup even though it's Montreal. So, it may never actually that in what I hope will be a more functional setup, even though it's Montreal, so it may never actually that functional. But this one, like this is like a dark horse season pass team. Yeah, 100%.

Like this is like, oh, they're playing, I'm gonna turn that game on. I think Tom, by the way, next week we're doing our watchability rankings. So for everyone who is somehow still here listening or watching, you got that to look forward to and we've got golden boot draft Comments in the chat. We're gonna do our golden boot draft oil with everyone next week as well Before the season starts and so I'm officially invited back then this was not my this was not a failed audition on my part I get to be on soccer wise

audition on my part. I get to be on soccer wise. We're still working on it. I like any USMNT related fan fiction so that got me back on board. But I still I will probably need a like an Emerson Hyndman just full three part trilogy at some point as well. Buddy, to bring it back to Montreal, forget US national team fan fiction. I got some Jekyll Marshall Ruddy Canadian national team fan fiction because I wanted to speak your language. You're not talking Jules Anthony Valsante and I'm not listening.

I'm not gonna go high level like that on Jekyll. I'm as torn as you are Doyle in which I think this team's better. I think they're more cohesive to start the year already and I find it hard to think they're gonna finish at a higher points level Than last year just because of what we talked about with the jump in the like from a standings point of view I think they're still around seven to nine at the end of this year I think they're still knocking on the door of a playing game I think it's right on this points number whether it's 41 through 43

So I'm gonna take under and just sort of hedge my bet there. I'm under as well I disagree with your Vioni take Doyle And I just don't think that they have enough top-end talent like again the collective is the idea That's always what Montreal is gonna be. They don't want to spend transfer fees on DPS They don't want to sign DPS and IPs. They don't want to sign DPs. And I just, but again, it maybe it's worked in the past. I don't see that in 2020. But Tom, they, they put up 43 points last year and top in talent is Caden Clark and Jaquiel Marshall Ruddy and Jalen Neal. Not better than the players they were going to roll out there last year or they did to start the year. Look, look at the teams next

one. We're going to talk about New England. We're going to talk about Philly. Um, again, the other ones that are right above Chicago is another one. There's just other teams that have much higher ceilings, and I believe more in it. So you might be right about higher ceilings. I think what goes sort of unnoticed about this Montreal team, I think they have a really high floor. Joel Waterman is a really good center back in MOS. George Campbell, I think, is like really, really good. We saw

it down the stretch last year and then I think he really showed out for the national team. We all like Jalen Neal. It wouldn't shock us if he became a high level starter in this league. And then Piet and Saliba in central midfield, like that's a spine that makes a lot of sense and it makes it hard to to score goals against them. And and I think if you have that, then I'm talking my I'm over over CF Montreal. There you go. Gosh, we're road tripping. We're taking soccer wise to Montreal. Let's go.

Are we going to go to the Vodka bar? It's pronounced. No, it's it's not Vodka, it's whiskey. It's literally a Japanese whiskey bar. A Japanese whiskey bar in Montreal. The bars in Montreal are elite, so I would just like to say I'm the over on any bars based off Montreal food and experience as well. I hope that I'm still able to get invited back after going under. I like a lot of this team. I know Weeby wants us to say Tom Pierce

will have 37 assists this year as well as the resident British guy in our chat, but I'm finding it a little difficult. Let me ask you this. If there's one young player on this team that you think is going to break out other than Saliba, right? If there's one young player of the guys who are sort of, I don't want to call them retreads, but like on their second stop, whether it's Caden Clark or Marshall Ruddy or Campbell or Neal or whoever, Bryce Duke even, who is that one young guy who's really gonna pop? I'm with you on Campbell. I really like George Campbell. I'm a big fan of George Campbell as

well. I think a good player on this team team I don't think we're talking like national team conversation with him. See I actually think we are I think if if middle of the season they're selling George Campbell for four and a half million dollars to Bordeaux well Bordeaux got relegated but like you know a bottom You know bottom of the table league on scene My protein right now Is you know bottom of the table legal team? Do you think that George Campbell ceiling is better than Austin trustee yes, do you think it's better than mark Mackenzie? Yeah, I think I do okay, I'm gonna do yeah, I'm not that high I think he's gonna be a very good MLS starter for a long time.

I think he's going to be a guy that's around winning teams in MLS. I don't think he's going to push into there. I think Jalen Neal has that potential and Jalen Neal playing in a three center back setup with Joel Waterman next to him, I love, because he can go and find the game a little bit more and do some of the things he's elite at,

where last year he was asked to do all the things he wasn't elite at. And where last year he was asked to do all the things he wasn't elite at, and that was all he was asked to do for major stretches of the year for the Galaxy. So I'm really excited about him. And I think Duke's gonna have a good year. I think Kate and Clark look great with the US in the January camp.

I think Bryce Duke's gonna have a good year as well, but the answer's obviously Jules Anthony-Vilson. So. I can't believe neither of you went Dante Sealy after. I was thinking about him after all of the Dante Seely content in preseason last year. He scored one free kick and you guys are like best 11 left wing back. That's because we're Scott Seely fans. You're just talking to two Scott Seely fans. That's true. Oriel J. Glenn and Scott Seely up top. That's the only team I need. 41 and a half points.

So we got three teams. We got Nashville SC. We have the completely remade New England Revolution and we have the Philadelphia Union. Who wants it? I'm going to start under Nashville, over New England. I'm tenuous on that because I like the pieces. You never know exactly how it's going to fit. Philadelphia Union over 41 and a half. Of these three, that's the one I feel strongest about real as why I Think that again The infrastructure in Philadelphia has been so good. I know that Jim curtain was yeah, they fired the coach They knocked down the main bridge that's not infrastructure I that's why

Did they start the season without a coach has Bradley car now ever coached anybody before Okay, you're you're acting since there's nobody there. It's not an interim to the interim Maybe the interim to the interim went undefeated in like five games, so it's not the system let last year again I I would have done what Jim curtain did in tweaking the game model and change it. They saw it different ways This season I don't the thing that I'm most certain about is they're gonna be top five in all the pressing metrics and when they've been that they've been one of the best teams in the league I don't think that they're gonna be that I'm not saying that over 41 and a half points feels a pretty safe

to me and particularly if they bring in another DP Feller because then they'll have Mikael Oora and Ty Bribo or Damiani as two of those three will start and then you kind of go on further down the list going further down the team that I just think that there are enough good players and with the system and everything being aligned and getting those metrics up because Doyle you like one of your best takes is like that always works except if it's five percent you lose five percent of that it's awful. That's what happened last year. They lost 5% of it and the wheels came off. This year whether they're fun to

watch or not that's going to be there. It's funny because the argument is they're going to change what they do from last year but then the other argument is the underlying numbers last year said that they should have been way better than they were. Right? Yeah. They were the biggest outlier in the standings in a negative way. So it's hard for me to then make the argument they're gonna be better because of that, except they're gonna do different things.

I think part of the issue is like, they're just gonna play a bunch of kids, which is great and it should be, that doesn't really win normally. So my guess is Philly's gonna be better off in 2026 because of the year they had in 2025, but I don't think they're going to be super competitive in 2025. I want to push back on that guys like What kids? most of this roster is in

It's so you're building this on a 15 year old player if he's gonna play how many minutes is CJ only? If it's CJ only then we're okay. If at our depth charts. If it's Ed Davis and CJ only we're okay. Tom, wasn't one of the reasons Bradley Carnell was brought in was to make sure that they push their young players into the first team so they can sell them? The first priority is playing high pressing transition energy drink soccer. Okay. The other, my other, one of my other main issues is set-a-rec. It was just a huge strength for them

in all the years under Jim Curtin and Blake's performances as well. And I don't know that all of that cover is still there. And I don't know that the goal scoring is that much higher. So listen, this might be because I'm doing our research for the Define Podcast and whatever, that maybe some I don't know. I listened to Views from the Bridge from September, which they had a conversation with six weeks left in the season where they said, does anyone want Philly to make the playoffs? And they talked about it for an hour and I listened to the entire thing and most of them were like, nah, I don't know.

Who cares? So maybe that's affecting my mindset right now. That's brutal. That's brutal. And now they, I mean, they got the Eagles at least, but now they got the centers to deal with. So yeah. Um, I, I'm concerned about center back.

Um, you know, I don't know anything about this, uh, Argentinian fellow they brought in other than the fact that he looks like he's about 145 pounds. Um, it worked worked for you know, it's obvious. Yeah, fair. No, it didn't. Um uh Glesnis was terrible last year. Yeah, he and Elliot both made like really uncharacteristic issues. Demid kind of fell apart. Yeah. When Jose Martinez um you know, stopped being as interested like that 5% and look man, Leon Flock was a not

insignificant piece of why all the pressing and creating turnovers and transition based play he was a not insignificant piece of why that all worked and we don't know if they're going to be able to replace that uh and then there's like, okay, Tiberibo was prime Luis Suarez for two months. Was that real? This Uruguayan forward, is he going to adjust right away? Daniel Gosdag, is he going gonna get 16 more penalties to convert this? Like, it, I, like, I, I'm kinda leaning more towards Tom, where this is, this is probably gonna be an over because the, the game model is resilient. Um, but I could, I can see the other direction too.

Like, I can see, like, they just, they don't have the talent. And that's gonna kill them. So where did you land? Because I wrote you down, erased it, moved you, and then moved you back. Where did you guys land? I went under, Tom went over. I'll go over. Okay, cheers to that. What about New England and Nashville? I'm over on New England under on Nashville. You gotta tell me why you're over on New England. I'm also over on New England. I like the challenge. Then you tell me, shut up, Tom.

Dave, you tell me why. He asked me to, I can't start answering. I'm gonna choose to believe that enough of the new pieces fit together. And it's easier for me to believe that can work for a team to be semi-competitive because Carlos Hill is the center of all of it. No one has to be the best player on the field. I think Leo Campagna is gonna score a ton of goals. I think he's going

to show the things he did at his best when it looked like he was going to be the starter for a team that was a consistent playoff contender in Major League Soccer. So I think already you have a spine that is better than it was the last few years and I think can fit in pretty well even though you have two new center backs which worries me and I think that's really tough to deal with. Brandon By comes back. Andrew Farrell can rotate in and out of those spots early in the season while you're still seeing who can pick it up on the fly and who can get comfortable.

I already like this central midfield more than I've liked a rev center mid in four or five years because of the moves they've made. So that all of that combined and then you just have the potential of what some of the other attacking signings can be. And like that can be really good. But I think the spine of this team is good. Peyton Miller is going to be awesome this year. Brandon Bayh is going to be back and healthy. There's a lot of pieces to like. And the reality of that, like, if you give any platform to Carlos Hill, you're going to be competitive. I can't see anything also because of the sun setting.

Golden hour for David Goss. I was going to say that. You're looking handsome, David. Doyle over under. I think I'm going slightly under. I think there'll be a better team, but you realize this team could 10 points better than last year and that's still under what we're talking about. This team was brutal last year.

If you look at the two positions that are the locus of value that is created on the field, which is center forward and goalkeeper and to me, those are two pretty big question marks like Alias Ivesich started off pretty well but he didn't finish well last season and Leo Campana looks the part but he's never been the part week after week after week and then you know Langone and Chanclai are question marks healed solidly in his 30s and then the other big part is like look man Caleb Porter's got two MLS Cubs and that's cool but he's missed the playoffs

four out of the last five seasons he's been a manager in MLS and he has had some pretty talented teams over that over that tenure. So like for for a guy with that track record record to have to pull this all together when we're talking what like eight new starters. You know over the past 12 months. Yeah. It's it just seems like a lot of the stuff that's happening in the together when we're talking what like eight new starters you know over the past 12 months it's it just seems like a lot of variables that if one or two go wrong then the whole thing falls apart so I'm gonna go under on the revs and I

like I like both center backs individually based on their profiles there is the worry that it takes either one if it takes either one of them a little while to get up to speed which wouldn't be abnormal in any way and they have two like high probably max Tam ish new centerbacks again I think that they're both they both look like good players but those are two unknowns and it's not even like you're pairing it with an MLS experience center back that they're gonna come into it's two of them. So that is a worry as well but I think that there's enough talent there and

and again, this is all on Caleb Porter. This is their team. This is his team. Yeah, I mean he said it to to his credit like he he said it and he said he's like we we had good players last year. They weren't the right players. This is my team now and like he's supremely confident that he's going to you know get get it right with this group of players. So if he does, you know, I hope he has a laminated copy of this Podcast

This over under steam on that one. Well, no judge Josh. Josh wolf is in Houston now and we went under on Houston That's true. I hope Josh is, I hope he's listening. And then the third one was Nashville. Someone else start. So Nashville, I'm going to say over, but I still don't think they make the playoffs. So last year they finished on 36 points. You set the line at 41 and a half. I'm going to say that they go over and it's not enough to make the postseason this year.

Where are they six points better than last year? So one would be Walker's healthier and two would be in midfield and three would be these new two attacking pieces they brought in who I think make them harder to play against while also making them easier for Hany Mukhtar to be creative. I think there are harder to play against while also making them easier for Hany Mukhtar to be creative.

I think there are pieces in this team now that he can play off of. At the end under Gary Smith, there were so many straight line runners and like workers, it wasn't enough to then attract defensive attention, except if Shaffelberg broke out into the open field. So I think the pieces they've brought in now are gonna give him the ability to play off players, whether they can beat guys one-v-one or just be a give-and-go option for him and open up the game.

And so I think they're cleaner defensively. I think they play more of the game in the attacking third. And I think they have more options in those areas to make them more dangerous. Yeah, I mean, I see it. I get it. I think this has more to do with I like other teams in the east that are around them more. And I feel like I have less questions about them.

There is a scenario where Hany is back to best 11 Hany and Walker Zimmerman is something close to best 11 Walker Zimmerman. And those are the two ingredients that if you have that, the team's going to be really solid no matter what else. So there's a scenario with that is I just don't think that's the most likely outcome. Yeah, I'm with Tom on that. And the other part of this is a lot of it relies upon the health and productivity of 34, 35-five year old,

Gaston Brugman, and he was awesome in MLS Cup and deserved MLS Cup MVP. Um but that's very different than doing it and having thirty-two. Okay. Okay. Sorry. Thirty-three in September. So, okay. So, he's a young 32. Six weeks to eight

weeks, six weeks to eight weeks an hour or is it six weeks to eight weeks from six weeks to eight weeks six weeks eight weeks and hours at six weeks eight weeks from six weeks eight weeks away. It's 60 to 90 days. But the point is this is a guy who missed two thousand minutes last year. Right. He played like a hundred minutes. Yeah. Like he's not been the healthiest guy over the past half decade. And a lot of it relies upon him. And then they don't like to your point they have like a lot of it relies upon him and then they don't like to your point They have like a lot of straight line runners and the guys who aren't that Aren't proven like I want Johnny Perez to be awesome I want him to be eight goals and six assists and

Adding that third heat to the attack and pulling something away from honey so that honey can can cook but like attack and pulling something away from honey so that honey can can cook. But like, it feels like wish casting. So and also like this team could be 10% better. And that's not insignificant. And that's still just 40 points. Yeah. So I'm going under. Yeah, I fall around there, but I'm excited to watch Johnny Russell tear it up for Nashville. I'm just putting it out there in the universe.

I think it's the right move. Make it happen, everyone. All right, bottom five. We're into our bottom five. Men, this feels wrong. It feels too high. San Jose earthquakes, 38 and a half points. This is almost entirely because I'm a believer in Bruce Arena. He fixes stuff that is broken.

Yep. Yep. And I think that's the respect for him. But I agree, this is too high. I'm going under. If they're able to move on from Aeronon Lopez and bring in another DP, maybe we could talk again, but you don't bring in Chicho Arango and Joseph Martinez for neither of them to be starting, so I'm assuming that they're gonna be out of a 442 or 4222 it is gonna be very difficult. That's good. That's gonna be miserable. That's gonna be miserable, but again like I Will trust Bruce that like if he does pivot so just one starting center forward to try to keep a lid on whichever one

Of them isn't starting but that's not gonna be easy I do chicken and rice Like I like their I like some of these individual pieces but that's not going to be easy. I do chicken and rice. I like some of these individual pieces. I'm hoping like hell that there's going to be just one year in Christian Espinosa's prime where this team is actually really good so the rest of the league can really understand how good this dude is, but I don't think it's this year. Let me ask you this.

Would you have more confidence or less if they hadn't signed Joseph? I like the Joseph sign and just have another goal scorer. I think that this commits you to center forward. I just don't think that it fits the grand team. I would have more confidence if they hadn't signed Joseph, even though he adds value to the team. That would do that. But signing him says they're going to play a 4-. But like, like signing him says

they're gonna play a 442. And I don't think they can play a 442 with this bunch. I think they'll just get ripped up. I don't understand the thought process that is Joseph getting signed on a one year deal with a club option because he doesn't really have any other choices of where to go. dictates the like, culture of the team and sets the lineup. Bruce wanted him. Bruce wanted him.

Bruce drove the signing. Bruce convinced Joseph when he called him. But Bruce can stop playing him. Like sure, he doesn't have anything long-term invested in him. He can say, I brought you in because I wanted you. You don't do the things I want. So you're not in this team anymore.

I don't feel like they have to play a certain way because of him. I feel like he had now Doyle. I agree with you. Like if they hadn't signed him, then I wouldn't have to deal with any of this thought process and it would be easier, but I still don't know. I feel like it's over indexed. The amount that Joseph sets the tone of the way this team has to play.

God, he brought in the weeby word over indexed. That was really good. the tone of the way this team We were all very proud of you in the chat Tom Guys, are you over then? It's such a huge jump. It's basically doubling their points total from last year if I take the over It just feels like such a massive jump But also I can't remember a year or bruiser gonna picked a roster and put it together and it didn't Come over what that number line would be. I am man. So that's the part that I'm having trouble with of like there's more talent than there was. It fits together a little bit cleaner.

So no, I'm gonna go under. Yeah, I hate myself. I think I gotta go under too. And like, I don't feel good about it because it's Bruce and he makes playoffs every single year Yeah, but it's just the West is brutal and I'm so nervous about the 442 thing 37 points San Diego FC and Sporting Kansas City and for transparency sake one of the people I asked asked to look at my lines ahead of time

said that sporting KC was five points too high. Wow. Yeah. I'm under on both. This is me writing a check that I have to cash now for all the overs I had earlier in the Western Conference. Yeah, for Kansas City, I love the day on your signing. And I think Malanou Garcia is going to be another really good signing day. That doesn't change my thoughts about their defensive spine. And that's why I'm under there. That's why I don't love the day on your village signing, because the marginal upgrade over Willie, I got it, if it even is an upgrade. That was a joke. It's like, it's not worth what you take off the table if you had just gone out and signed a killer DP Demid, which is what this team

needs. Yeah, the, you had, you had a borderline, a high level Tam player at a good contract to borderline DP player at the center forward forward position like you won that and then you went out and doubled down and spent more money in that Spot I agree with you And so I'm gonna go Well, we're not even on Casey now though. Are we on San Diego? No, they really changed the number. So what number are you at with Casey? What what did we end up with the line? 37 and a half. Okay I'll go under. And then San Diego again I'm under just because there's not

there's not enough room to keep going over on all these I don't think that they're going to be like really bad. They're not going to be a Cincinnati. Yeah I don't think that at all I think that there is big upside in Chuky Lozano and Anders Dreier I love both of those signings. If both of them hit like to whatever,

a B plus of whatever you'd expect for them, even if they struggle in central defense or defensive depth or any other worries that you would have for a general. Set her forward. Like those two special players can cover over cracks if they are both really good Dole's naming every aspect of a soccer team and saying I'm saying I'm still under but those are the ways it goes over and that is a viable pet

Dave no No, absolutely not I'm to go under as well. I think there'll be things that are fun to watch about this team. I'm excited about this market. I'm excited about the fan base stuff like that. I think starting against the Galaxy is cool. I wouldn't be shocked if I, a month into the season, really like this center back pairing. And it's a good set of like Andres Reyes experience in this league goes out wins battles. Patty McNair more experienced player outside this league. You've always been a big Patty McNair guy. I remember in the green room at the old studio, he would tell

stories of Patty McNair. Tom's been talking about Patty McNair for six months on the show. And I like want to make fun of him every time. And I'm like, I don't need to go there. But now that Patty McNair is a real part of Major League Soccer, it's gonna become a bit more of an issue. Yeah, me and Patty, you know,

we used to just go tonk up at the Lou and all that type of stuff and whatever else we would do. So I'm gonna go under, but I'm excited to watch this team, I think at the same time. I love Luca De la Torre. I like when he has been healthy for club and country, I think he has been so much fun to watch.

It's just like, when he has been healthy is like, it's the operative phrase right there. Like it has not happened all that often. And I think he's the type of ball progressing number eight who can make guys like Dreier and Chuki look so much better. We just don't know if this guy can hold up for a full season. I think he's only done it like once or twice in his career and he's 26. The other thing is like, look, Marcus Ingivartsson has been a pretty good center forward for a long time. He has one double digit

goal season in his career and he's almost thirty like this is the team that Jeremy Obobasi should have ended up on. Yeah. Like it would have been perfect or this is a team that should you know do what they can to get Duncan McGuire because like they they I think they need that you know, do what they can to get Duncan McGuire. Because like, I think they need that. You know, the rest of it, like, it feels more thought out than most expansion teams, right? Like, it feels like Tyler Heaps has a vision

and Mikey Varis is definitely on board and they're being really meticulous and thoughtful in how they're implementing that and they're not gonna panic if things go wrong in the first six weeks. Um and that's good and that gives me confidence for the long term but like it still feels like an expansion team. It still feels like a team that's gonna have more bad days than good in 2025. So, I'm going under as well.

But if Ani Saidi gets any minutes and scores a goal, then I'm turned back around. I'm coming all the way back out. So just so that they know that. All it takes is one. If you want me on your side, throw them out there. Game one. DC United, 36 and a half points. This is a lower total than what they had last year. It feels like they got worse in the off season. Like they their best playmaker in terms of volume is still a DP on their roster. He's just playing for a different team. Their best playmaker in terms of per ninety was sold for a

buck and a half to Colorado Rapids. Their best player full stop is in his mid 30s. I don't know man, I don't know. 36 and a half is a little bit high. This is where we are in the podcast. We're an hour and a 50 minutes in where it which is good I don't know man that's where your analysis ended I'm going over I'm I'm I'm saying oh I'm gonna well I was gonna say can I say why zags first do we tag into each other back to the matter was that a sexual

reference no not really but if that's where you want to go, then you know, Tommy does what he wants. I have a ton of belief in the like DC United plays hard. That was the most awkward moment I've ever experienced on a podcast and I was on a podcast with Weeby for 10 years. Weeby's coming on by the way next week. He's coming. He wants to come and he is coming on this show. So just so you're aware of that,

Weeby is going to be a part of this because he wants to come. In talking about DC United though, I think this is the like try hard team. I just think there's too many guys on this team where it's like no coach is ever gonna believe in me and now Troy Lisane's giving me a starting number 10 role. What else are you going to do?

And on top of that, because I already did my preview with this one, with Gregory Roach, who does a great job covering the team in DC. Then on top of that, you have Christian Benteke. It's very rare to have a player like that on a team like this. And so it's like, if some of it works, he can put it away and get you some points so I'm gonna go over but out of the playoffs Tom you were also zagging I zags first just just on vibes like no analysis at all I think Goss hit a lot of it and yeah like the clicky one I would have preferred if they're still paying him to be DP that it would still be here a lot of it had to Do with set pieces as well. And yes, I'm worried about

Chance creation in general but guess what you have a cheat code in Christian Mitekis forehead and the defense is gonna be better than last year And that's I think what I'm putting more stock in than my attacking worries. Did you call him clicky? Yep. Yeah, so you're just British homeboys with Mateus click Yeah, no, it's I'm based on Call him clicky. Yeah, I didn't realize you were getting polis just like a malli dealer from Leeds. So like Yeah So Joel you were under I'm under. I just think they're gonna lose the talent battle basically every week until they meet the next

team which is Toronto gonna be a good team Whoo, it's a tough one Yeah, I'm gonna go under as well. I can play devil's advocate. This is let's let's go through the positive scenario Oh, I can tell you for a fact there's they're close to signing two new players So there's gonna be new additions which is needed did they find them off of the transfer market What's waiting? they actually scouted to new era to explain why this Jonathan Lewis one of them how yes over over I mean he could be but I don't I that's not who kind of I'm thinking of and to explain why they haven't made moves or a ton of moves yet it's

they were assuming and hoping that Lorenzo and senior was gonna leave they brought him he said I don't want to go to Middle East they said cool we'll focus on Europe they brought him an offer from Italy they brought him one from Spain they brought him one from Turkey he turned all three down despite that Toronto would have bought him out as part of the the financial package to move him on and he would have made an overwhelming majority of the money that he is currently owed. And he said no. So if

they were going to buy it out why don't they just buy him out. I don't know. I mean they should have gotten Rodolfo Burel on the phone with him and he could have because he loves to provide. I should have gotten Rodolfo Burel on the phone with River Plate be like hey, Lorenzo. Yeah, yeah Let's do this together. No, so again, so That explains why the roster is where it is if you want to go through the the most positive outcome for this team I think that it's Bernadeski is really really good and he's playing as a winger and he carries the attack Doesn't matter who the center forward is center forward will get goals Theo Corbinu Let's say that he has a very good season

I like the midfield trio the defense still needs work more work is coming there But one more center back and one center forward is there anything that I could do to talk you into it Do you like that midfield trio? I? Don't hate it. I do like it. Yeah Yeah, I didn't hate it last year. I thought Debbie Flores was one of the better signings I think that does his job and obviously I'm a sucker for Jonathan Osorio He could play point guard for the Knicks and I'd be like buying the jersey So that part I don't dislike long staff doesn't cover as much ground as I'd like and then doesn't do enough in possession But if you told me that they had a center back that I really trusted

Alongside the ones that are currently there, then you might be able to convince me a little bit. I like Corbino, I like that signing. I think it's a good, like talent ad, it's the type of player Toronto should be bringing in. It's just, what do you do? You show up and the best player on the team doesn't wanna be there, but doesn't wanna leave,

and everyone else just deals with it. No it seems miserable from the outside looking in it just seems it seems miserable. So time you're over. No I said I'm under I said I said I'm playing devil's advocate like we just all sat there. The line is now twenty nine and a half. Can't do that. We did it. The line is twenty nine and a half. the sportsbook made a last-minute change Tom's not gonna let you spin him on that one. Let's try already locked in the bet 29 was 29 if it was I don't know man. I

Think I would I think I would still go under I think I would still go under this I think I would still go under. This is I think this is going to be a Not great team I have a lot of respect for Robin Frazier that they're not going to roll over at the end of the season like they did In multiple of the previous season. Yeah, and I would say I've said this about a couple of teams where I've gone under or whatever I won't be shocked if when we do this in a year I'll be I'll like a lot of what I see Toronto. Like Robin Frazier has gotten to set his style. He's found the pieces in this group that are usable and they've gotten out of some of these contracts and able to move on to the next generation.

I'm just not sure that I'm feeling that at this exact moment. So congratulations Toronto. You've got your laminator ready. You are going to be able to use this to motivate you for the rest of the season. We're done. We made it. You guys thought this was long? Imagine 30 previews individually of every single team on time. Let me ask you guys this. Over, under on the number of teams, my over, unders are within five points of their total. I'm going gonna set it at 17 and a half.

I'm gonna say over this year. I think there's less bottom falls out unexpectedly teams. So I think there's more teams that are in the stratospheres that you discussed. I'd go under there and that does like, I think that there's just the nature of it that you have to put 14 teams in a 10 point bundle and inevitably three of them will go five points beyond and three will go five.

But like just the nature of MOS, the average, the mean doesn't mean that that's where it's going to go. So I think that I'm going to go under on that. I'm tracking this. We're going to check back in on this one. Don't worry. I think Morgan told me to take notes. I wrote everything down except Sporting Kansas City.

Where are you guys? Where did you fall? Both under? I'm under. Okay, 37 and a half. There we go. And on that note, we will be back a ton. We've got season previews that are going to roll out tomorrow and then all weekend kind of. We're going to be back, myself and Tom, to do our watchability rankings. We've got some other awards stuff that we have to talk through before all the big players sign and all of that. And then we've got our Golden Boot Draft coming up next week. MLS kicks off around the corner. We've got some other awards stuff that we have to talk through before all the big players sign in all of that. And then we've got our Golden Boot Draft coming up next week. MLS kicks off around the corner.

We've got CONCACAF Champions Cup next week. So like a lot to talk about, a lot to do, a lot to look into. We did a big show yesterday about the She Believes Cup roster. So you can go listen to that one as well. And to all of you who are ridiculous enough for still being here in the live chat or still listening via podcast, you have found your home. You are just as sick as all of us and we appreciate you for it. And we'll talk to you again very, very soon. you