Something You Should Know - SYSK Choice: How to Figure Out Anything & The Art of Statistics

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Starting point is 00:00:17 You can now make the first move or not. With opening moves, you simply choose a question to be automatically sent to your matches. Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and try it for yourself. Today on Something You Should Know, how long can you stare at someone before you start to creep them out? I'll tell you to the tenth of a second. Then, how to figure out any problem.

Starting point is 00:00:42 In fact, there are three rules to do it. Rule number one is all problems are figureoutable. Rule number two, if a problem isn't figureoutable, it's not a problem, it's a fact of life. Rule number three, you may not care enough to solve a particular problem, and that's okay, but find something you do care enough about and go back to rule number one. Also, how to phrase a request so people are more likely to say yes. And the fascinating ways people manipulate statistics to make their case. In the U.S., if you go onto the websites, you can find out that there's a 2% mortality rate from heart surgery.

Starting point is 00:01:18 And in the U.K., there's a 98% survival rate. Whoa! Well, that sounds much better. It's exactly the same. All this today on Something You Should Know. Since I host a podcast, it's pretty common for me to be asked to recommend a podcast. And I tell people, if you like Something You Should Know, you're going to like The Jordan Harbinger Show. Every episode is a conversation with a fascinating guest. Of course, a lot of podcasts are conversations with guests, but Jordan does it better than most.

Starting point is 00:01:53 Recently, he had a fascinating conversation with a British woman who was recruited and radicalized by ISIS and went to prison for three years. She now works to raise awareness on this issue. It's a great conversation. And he spoke with Dr. Sarah Hill about how taking birth control not only prevents pregnancy, it can influence a woman's partner preferences, career choices, and overall behavior due to the hormonal changes it causes. Apple named The Jordan Harbinger Show one of the best podcasts a few years back,

Starting point is 00:02:25 and in a nutshell, the show is aimed at making you a better, more informed critical thinker. Check out The Jordan Harbinger Show. There's so much for you in this podcast. The Jordan Harbinger Show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Something you should know. Fascinating intel. The world's top experts. And practical advice you can use in your life. Today, Something You Should Know with Mike Carruthers. Hi, welcome. Have you ever wondered how long you should stare at somebody before you should look

Starting point is 00:03:03 away? Before you start to creep them out. Well, whether you're checking out that beautiful woman across the room or glancing at the new guy at work, you should count to three and then look away. Why? Because research shows that the perfect amount of time to stare at someone is about 3.3 seconds. Any longer or shorter, and it starts to get creepy. 500 people sat close to a screen displaying different clips of actors staring at them. On average, participants reported feeling uncomfortable after the actor's gaze exceeded or stopped short of 3.3 seconds. Now, this isn't a physiological response, but rather an unwritten social norm. Humans decided that around three seconds seems to be the right amount of time to stare, and we've run with

Starting point is 00:03:52 it. Much like we inherently know how firm to grasp somebody when we shake their hand, it's just the way we do things. And that is something you should know. Life has a way of putting problems in your path. It's just what life does. Whether it's personal or business, problems always present themselves. And the good news, according to my guest, is that all of those problems are figureoutable. Marie Forleo has really made a name for herself as a thought leader, writer, and philanthropist. She also has an online business school, and she is, by her own admission, an eternal optimist, which is why she believes, and why she wrote a book entitled, Everything is Figureoutable. Hi, Marie. Welcome. Thank you so much, Mike. It's a pleasure to be here.

Starting point is 00:04:48 So this is really good news that everything is figureoutable because how often does it seem that's not the case? And so I'm so glad you're here to explain why it is. Well, on a broad level, it really is about how one simple belief can help us change our lives and the world. And to dig deeper into that, my belief and what I've seen to be true is that every single human on Earth has innate power, innate wisdom that we're able to tap into to solve both our personal problems and, I believe, to solve our collective problems. And Mike, if you look throughout history, you know, any major leap that we've made in terms of the sciences or sports or art or medicine has come because someone believed in something that was not yet possible, but they saw it in their mind's eye and they figured it out. You know, for example, the Wright brothers, right, had the audacity to think, yes, we human beings can indeed fly. If we think about women's suffrage, women weren't allowed to vote, and now all of a sudden reality has shifted.

Starting point is 00:05:53 If we think about putting a man on the moon, there are so many places where we can look that the spirit of everything is figureoutable is alive and well. So put this into practice for me to explain how it works, what it is. Give me some examples. What is it? So everything is figureoutable is just what it means. So if you find yourself frustrated with any aspect of your life, and rather than sitting back and thinking that it only has to be that way, or things are just going to continue to get worse, you just say that phrase and then start looking for solutions. You know, one of the things that we walk people through is really defining their dream. And, you know, that could be a problem that you want to solve or a big goal that you want to see come to life. But I think for

Starting point is 00:06:35 anyone who's kind of unfamiliar with working in this way, it's useful to get clear and specific on one thing that is so important to you that you're willing to dig in and do the work and get dirty with it until you actually quote unquote, figure it out. And I think Mike, maybe, uh, again, just in case anyone is either skeptical or wondering again, how this works, I think we should go through three roles because this actually came up when I was first starting to talk about the idea. I was at brunch with some friends and my friend's eight-year-old son piped up and he said, oh, what's the title of your book, Marie? And I said, everything is figureoutable. And he said, no, it's not. And I was like,

Starting point is 00:07:14 this is awesome. Tell me more. And he said, well, I can't grow human working wings out of my back. And I said, well, that's true right now. I said, but do you know about a thing called CRISPR and we human beings can indeed fly? And he was like, oh yeah, that's right. And then he said, well, you know, I can't bring my dog back from the dead. The one that died when I was like three years old. And I said, well, that's true. But you know, scientists are working on cryogenics and there is a thing called cloning happening. It's like, yeah, that's cool. That's, that's true actually. And so I made up these three rules to just help us create a mental container to your point of like, how does it work? So rule number one is this, all problems or dreams are figureoutable. Rule number two, if a problem isn't figureoutable, it's not a problem, it's a fact of life, like death, laws of nature, gravity.

Starting point is 00:08:03 Rule number three, you may not care enough to solve a particular problem or reach a particular dream, and that's okay. But find something you do care enough about and go back to rule number one. And once we go there, once you identify something that you really do care about, Mike, then we go to what I like to talk about, which is eliminating our excuses. Because I think some of the things that hold us back from figuring things out in our life, three of the big ones that all of us use from time to time, again, my hand is raised, myself is included, is I don't have the time to do this, or I don't have the money or the financial resources, or I don't have the know-how.

Starting point is 00:08:40 And that's where I think many of us can get stuck and go but I can't figure it out right and so we start to break that down and help people live what I call an excuse-free life well that's a really important point because everything may be figureoutable but not necessarily by me because I don't have the money I don't have the time I don't have the smarts so sure somebody else might be able to, but I have a lot of things holding me back, I suspect, is what a lot of people would say. Right. And when it comes to those constraints like time and potentially money or resources and know-how, what we do is actually walk people through how to eliminate those constraints. So for example, there's a really great tool that I use for myself

Starting point is 00:09:28 anytime I can feel those excuses popping up. They're kind of like weeds in a garden, right? You don't just get rid of your excuses once. You have to kind of keep tending to that garden to keep it nice and healthy. And the way that we do that is to understand the distinction between two little four-letter words, can't and won't. And here's what I've discovered. 99% of the time, not 100, 99% of the time, whenever we say we can't, can't is really a euphemism for won't. And what does won't mean? Won't means we don't really want to. It's not that important to us. We don't want to put in the time or be inconvenienced or move around our other priorities to make it the number one thing. And a lot of people bristle at that idea and they're like, no, that's not true.

Starting point is 00:10:16 And I'm like, just humor me. Try it before you deny it. Whatever you say you can't do, like I can't wake up earlier and get my workout on, or I can't find the time to get my writing done, or I can't forgive him or her. If you actually switch out the word can't and replace it with won't, see how it feels in your body. Nine times out of 10, it feels much more true. It's something you just don't want to do. It's not that important to you right now. And that's okay. Admitting that doesn't make us wrong or lazy or bad people. It makes us honest. Now, Mike, I have a question for you, actually. Let me turn the tables. Has there ever been a moment in your life when you thought

Starting point is 00:10:57 to yourself, oh my goodness, I can't do that because I don't have the time or I can't go there. There's just no space in my calendar. And yet something popped up that it was so important to you that you somehow overcame all those constraints. Have you ever had an experience like that? You either found the money, found the time, moved everything around, and all of a sudden you were able to do what you didn't think you would be able to do before? Of course. And I think everybody has that. Everybody has that moment where when it really matters, somehow you get it done. how powerful you really are. And that allows you to go, you know what? It's not that I don't have the time. It's that I'm not prioritizing it or other things are more important and that's okay. And when you start to kind of break down some of those myths of constraints that you have,

Starting point is 00:11:55 all of a sudden things become real figureoutable real fast. I like the message because I try to do what you're talking about every day in my life. And sometimes it's a struggle and sometimes it's not. And I agree that everything is figureoutable, but not necessarily today. But like sometime I give myself permission to say, screw it. And today I'm just going to give myself permission to turn off the world and I'll come back tomorrow and figure it out. Absolutely. Well, this is about a long termterm game, not a short-term game, right? Nothing worthwhile in our lives. I think about relationships. I think about businesses. I think about careers. I think about any skill or craft that you want to learn. It's not going to happen overnight.

Starting point is 00:12:41 I mean, when I think about me building my business, I've been doing what I've been doing for 20 years now. The first seven years of it, gosh, those were shaky. You know, I had all these different side gigs and side jobs, and there were so many things happening in my life that, you know, if I would have given up, what, the first six months or first year or even first five years, I would never be where I'm at today. So this is certainly not saying that everything is figureoutable instantly. In fact, we talk a lot about a notion called progress, not perfection, right? Of really getting in there and asking yourself, not did you get it right? Not did you figure it out today, but did you make progress? Did you learn something? Did you discover something that you didn't know before? Did you move anything an inch ahead, even if it's your own understanding of what the real challenge is or, you know what I mean, what the situation with the playing field

Starting point is 00:13:31 is? If you made progress, we're going to give you a high five. And then if you need to like sit on the couch and take a minute, great. We're going to come back up and go hit it again tomorrow. Do you think it's important because at least from your own story that you do your, your figure out, figure outing, figure out a bullying. Go ahead. I like it. I like where you're going. I like that you're inventing new words. This is fun. One step at a time, or can you, can you work on several things at a time, or is that too overwhelming,

Starting point is 00:14:05 or is everybody different, or what? Both. So everyone definitely is different. What I've seen in my work with people is that most of us are overambitious. Most of us want to figure like five important things out at once. We want to change our career, start a side hustle, remake our relationship, overhaul our finances, get in the best shape of our lives.

Starting point is 00:14:27 That is a recipe for a disaster, Mike. And I think especially when you're learning any type of new skill, and I really believe that this is a skill, it's a discipline, it's a mindset, it's an attitudinal shift about how you approach your life. If you can choose one thing, and that's what we encourage people to do, just choose one really important thing that you're so committed to that you're willing to get up every day and work on it, what happens is not only will you see more progress because your energy is not spread too thin, but you'll start to master some of the skills underneath this kind of larger umbrella

Starting point is 00:15:00 of the figureoutable philosophy. So then you're like, whoa, I get how this works. I've achieved X, Y, or Z that was really important to me, or at least I'm seeing enough progress that I feel confident now. Now I can go apply the same mindsets and tools and strategies to my next project or problem. And here's the thing that you never want to forget. Every single day, life will present wonderful opportunities for you to figure things out. You know, like there's a member of my company, a woman named Meg, and she was laughing. She was coming home from a work thing and she was in an Uber and she got to talking with her Uber driver and let them know who she worked with, which is me.

Starting point is 00:15:42 And the Uber driver had heard the Oprah talk and was like, oh my goodness, I loved that. It's been helping me. And Meg, who's my employee, got home and she didn't have her keys. And she had to like crawl under the fence and the Uber driver was actually going, hey, it's figureoutable. And they figured out how to get her back into her house. So the point of that story is there are so many little opportunities to practice each and every day on non-high stakes issues that you'll start to build that muscle and that momentum, and then you can take on more things as you get more comfortable and confident. Yeah. I'm talking with Marie Forleo. Her book is called Everything is Figureoutable. Hi, this is Rob Benedict. And I am Richard Spate. We were both on a little show you might know called Supernatural.

Starting point is 00:16:27 It had a pretty good run, 15 seasons, 327 episodes. And though we have seen, of course, every episode many times, we figured, hey, now that we're wrapped, let's watch it all again. And we can't do that alone. So we're inviting the cast and crew that made the show along for the ride. We've got writers, producers, composers, directors, and we'll of course have some actors on as well, including some certain guys that played some certain pretty iconic brothers. It was kind of a little bit of a left field choice in the best way possible.

Starting point is 00:17:00 The note from Kripke was, he's great, we love him, but we're looking for like a really intelligent Duchovny type. With 15 seasons to explore, it's going to be the road trip of several lifetimes. So please join us and subscribe to hear new ideas and perspectives. So I want to tell you about a podcast that is full of new ideas and perspectives, and one I've started listening to called Intelligence Squared. It's the podcast where great minds meet. Listen in for some great talks on science, tech, politics, creativity, wellness, and a lot more. A couple of recent examples, Mustafa Suleiman, the CEO of Microsoft AI, discussing the future of technology. That's pretty cool.

Starting point is 00:17:53 And writer, podcaster, and filmmaker John Ronson, discussing the rise of conspiracies and culture wars. Intelligence Squared is the kind of podcast that gets you thinking a little more openly about the important conversations going on today. Being curious, you're probably just the type of person Intelligence Squared is meant for. Check out Intelligence Squared wherever you get your podcasts. So Marie, let's talk about your fail-proof test to make the right decisions, especially in high-stakes situations. Yes. So one of the things that can hold many of us back from figuring things out is fear. And specifically, you know, the fear of failure. Maybe it's the fear of success. It's the fear of being judged. It's the fear of losing money. It's the fear of being criticized. I mean, there are so many fears. And one of the most frequent questions that I'm asked is, Marie, how do I tell the difference between fear that is healthy and normal for me to move through, because it means I'm on a

Starting point is 00:18:56 growth path, versus my intuition saying, don't do this. You're going to regret it later. This is not a direction that you should be moving in. And I think Mike, for you, and hopefully for most of your listeners, like we all kind of have those gut hits where it's like, oh, I don't know if I should do this or not. But how do you tell the difference between those two experiences, right? Fear versus intuition. So the foolproof test is something that I've taught people. And it is so incredibly useful when you're in a position where you don't know if you should move ahead and you can't tell the difference if it's your intuition or just normal fear. And it's a little test that you actually have to do with your eyes

Starting point is 00:19:33 closed because it's tapping into the wisdom of your body, not your mind. And it goes like this. So you think about the opportunity that's in front of you. It might be to say yes to a job. It might be to pursue a particular creative project. It might be to even, you know, engage in a particular relationship, whether that's personal or professional. And so you close your eyes and you ask yourself this, does the idea of moving ahead with this opportunity make me feel expansive or contracted? And Mike, in the nanosecond after you ask yourself that question, I guarantee you, your body will have one of two responses. So an expansive response may feel like this. And again, we're not talking about your mind. We're talking about you, your physical sensations, what's happening in your body. So expansive may feel like a lifting of your

Starting point is 00:20:25 shoulders, an opening of your chest. There may be a little tingle of joy or excitement, even if it's something scary. It's just like you're moving ahead. You feel this lightness, right? So that's expansiveness. If after you ask yourself that question and you pay attention to what's happening on the inside, you feel something that we could describe as, let's say, contracted. That may be a sense of dread in your stomach, a tightening of your chest. Maybe your head starts shaking. No, even if you didn't decide to do that, or you feel your shoulders hunch over. Again, for all of us, it's very different, but I have never had anyone do that particular task between fear and intuition and not have their body have some kind of reaction that they then go, you know what, that makes sense.

Starting point is 00:21:11 And here's where it's most important is when our ego is involved. Because I'm sure everyone has had opportunities that come up that on paper, it looks amazing, right? Either there's more money or there's prestige or, you know, a little voice in your head is saying, oh my goodness, anyone in your position would die to have this opportunity. You should absolutely do it. But there's something in you that's saying don't go or say no. That is your internal guidance system trying to keep you on the best path for you. And so that's that little test that can help you with a clear sense of certainty know how to make the best path for you. And so that's that little test that can help you with a clear sense of certainty, know how to make the best decisions. I know you talk about time and I think a universal problem people have is too many things to do and not enough time to do it. So,

Starting point is 00:21:57 so what's your magic bullet for finding more time or getting things done in the allotted time or what? Yeah, it's a simple little mantra that I think anyone can use, and this is very, very actionable, especially if you want to create things in your life. So we live in a time and an age right now, Mike, as you know, there's so much incoming, right? People have their phones in them. Some studies show up to five hours a day. Other studies show that people are still watching up to five hours of TV a day. And I think all of us can agree, you know, you walk around any town or big city and most people are looking down, right? They're sucked into a screen. Our devices are designed to be addictive. And unless we consciously remove ourselves from that addiction loop, you know, our time just fritters away on stuff that's

Starting point is 00:22:45 not really that important to us. So here's the mantra that I always use, and it's very flexible in how it's deployed. Create before you consume. So create before you consume. How does that look in real life? Rather than waking up and picking up your phone and scrolling through your social feeds or scrolling through your news feeds or scrolling through your email, create the thing that is most important to you. Let's say your goal is to have a stronger, healthier body. Well, get yourself up and actually do that workout before you consume the information of the world or the agenda of other people, or just consuming the products of what people put in front of you. Let's say that you want to create your first novel, right? Rather than waking up and going to your computer, flipping it open and starting to answer emails, create just a few pages of that first draft before you go consuming all of the

Starting point is 00:23:35 media that's constantly surrounding you. So create before you consume really helps people get a grip on their time. And what's cool about it is it doesn't prevent you from going to check social, if that's a crucial part of your business or your creativity. It doesn't prevent you from watching your favorite shows, if that's one of the ways that you relax at night. It just prioritizes the creation of the life you want first. And lastly, it's great to hear this. And what so often happens is people get all excited and they go out and they talk to other people and all they hear is, well, that'll never work.

Starting point is 00:24:14 That's the stupidest idea I've heard. Oh, no, no. You know, it's always those naysayers that like you suck the life out of you. And Marie got me all excited. And now this guy's saying this will never work. And so what's your armor for that? Well, I think, first of all, it's understandable. A lot of people in this world have been disappointed. A lot of people in this world have tried things and failed and then just didn't get themselves back up to try again. So we have to have a bit of compassion

Starting point is 00:24:40 for those folks. But we also have to be self-protective in this way. We need to build what I like to call our figureoutable force field. That's like having a crew of figureoutable friends who share this philosophy with you, people that you can text, you can jump on a Skype call with, you can jump on a real call with, you can go and have some coffee in person and stay surrounded with people who, even if they don't have the answers, hey, look, I don't have all the answers, but I know that what we talk about in this book, the tools and the strategies can help people find their own. So you have to surround yourself and build consciously a network of people who believe this same way, who behave this same way, who have created their lives to go, you know what?

Starting point is 00:25:21 I may not know how to do this yet, but it's totally figureoutable. Let's start working on it. People, if you go to, when you have a challenge, you can, you know, spitball and brainstorm about, okay, great. I hit a stuck point. Fine. This is figureoutable too. Let's talk about different possibilities for how I might want to move ahead. So I think having that support system is crucial. And for anyone saying, but I don't know how to build it. That's total BS. You can absolutely build it. Most of my dearest friends, Mike, have come from people that I've met on the internet, meaning through email or through online forums or groups or whatever. And so there are folks all around if you're just willing to, again, make that one of the things that you hope to figure out. It's so interesting to me, and you talked about it before, about how you find the time,

Starting point is 00:26:04 you find a way. And you know, if you're stranded on the highway and your car's in a ditch, somehow you find your way home. There's a set of steps that get you there that people are amazingly resilient and able to figure things out, but they tend not to believe it in the moment and think, oh, crap, you know, I can't do anything. But you will, you'll figure you have to because otherwise, you just die. So correct. And to your point, exactly, Mike, if we can wake up each other to that reality of how resourceful and capable we really are, I think so much can change both on an individual level, and more importantly, on a collective level. And to be honest, that was one of the deeper reasons why I wanted to write this book. You know, if you look around our world

Starting point is 00:26:49 right now, there are many collective challenges that we all face from violence to corruption to the environment. You know, there's many, many different things that we need to figure out. And what is going to change that is to have individuals who believe in their own capability and then are willing to work collectively to make those individuals who believe in their own capability and then are willing to work collectively to make those bigger changes happen in the world around us. It's one of those things that it's good to hear. It's good to get confirmation that I think everybody knows deep down inside that they have it in them, that everything is figureoutable, or at least everything important is figureoutable. Marie Forleo has been my guest. You can find her at her website,

Starting point is 00:27:26 marieforleo.com. And the name of her book is Everything is Figureoutable. And there's a link to that book in the show notes. Thank you, Marie. Oh, thank you so much, Mike. This was fantastic. I so appreciate it. Do you love Disney? Then you are going to love our hit podcast, Disney Countdown. I'm Megan, the Magical Millennial. And I'm the Dapper Danielle. On every episode of our fun and family-friendly show, we count down our top 10 lists of all things Disney. There is nothing we don't cover. We are famous for rabbit holes, Disney themed games, and fun facts you didn't know you needed, but you definitely need in your life. So if you're looking for a healthy dose of Disney magic, check out Disney Countdown wherever you get your podcasts. with hilariously honest advice. Then we have But Am I Wrong, which is for the listeners that didn't take our advice.

Starting point is 00:28:27 Plus, we share our hot takes on current events. Then tune in to see you next Tuesday for our listener poll results from But Am I Wrong. And finally, wrap up your week with Fisting Friday, where we catch up and talk all things pop culture. Listen to Don't Blame Me, But Am I Wrong on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Starting point is 00:28:45 New episodes every Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. When someone makes an argument using statistics, it can often support their case. Statistics sound impressive. If 90% of people believe something, or your risk of getting sick from this thing is less than one-tenth of one percent, those kinds of statistics can be persuasive. But as we all know, statistics can be manipulated. As my next guest will tell you, he can pretty much make any number say anything and still be technically correct.

Starting point is 00:29:25 The other problem is sometimes people just make them up out of thin air. David Spiegelhalter is a British statistician and Winton Professor of Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge in London and author of the book, The Art of Statistics. Hi David, welcome to the Statistics. Hi, David. Welcome to the podcast. Oh, it's great to be on it. So this whole idea of statistics, you know, when people say, well, 80% of this or only

Starting point is 00:29:55 27% of that, somehow that all of a sudden takes on some authority. People revere statistics, and yet clearly they're so malleable that often they don't mean anything. Yeah, people have got, I think, an ambivalent feeling about statistics. They do feel, oh, it's numbers, that sounds like, you know, that's very authoritative. But they also have a skepticism about them, that they sort of are quite very happy to sneer about them and dismiss them and i think you know this difference between oh well just having to accept them as if they're god-given truths or reject them as uh you know as just being made up what i'm trying to do is steer somewhere in between those so because i love numbers i think statistics are fantastically valuable things but i get put off

Starting point is 00:30:46 if people start spouting lots of numbers at me and i can't take them all in so i i think the crucial thing is to see that numbers can be valuable but you know we need to be able to question them and actually they don't speak for themselves The way in which people tell the story, the way in which people package them makes such a difference to how we feel about them. Yeah, well, and as people have come to learn, you can make statistics say almost anything you want if you know how to play that game. I think I'm a decent statistician. I can make any number look big or small, depending on what story I'm trying to tell. And that's part of the trade. But at the same time, it means that, you know, I think we've got some skills at taking apart other people's use of these tricks. And I think, you know, we can teach that and encourage people to question numbers and say, well, is this a big I be impressed no is it that important great so teach me that what's your advice on you know when someone is trying to convince me of something using some number that I've never heard before what do I do well there's just a few

Starting point is 00:32:00 questions one should always ask first of all you know can I actually believe the number you know Is it true, the actual number that's quoted? Or is the evidence so bad that someone is essentially making it up? And then the other thing is to think about, well, the number might be true, but are the conclusions that the person draws, are they reliable? Are they going way beyond what the number actually says and making some grand claim on the basis of it. And then the final thing I think one needs to ask is, well, why am I hearing this? What's the story? What's the interest? What is this person trying to make me feel? Are they trying to worry me?

Starting point is 00:32:37 Are they trying to reassure me? And so on. What is this story? All these are questions you can ask and enable you to get some sort of skepticism about a number, not a cynicism. You shouldn't just reject them out of hand, but you should be able to just ask, well, you know, as I said, is this a big number? Is it important or is it being packaged in a way that's trying to impress me. Yeah. Well, right. Because sometimes people will throw out numbers and, and the, the jump from, well, maybe that's a true number to the conclusion they're drawing from it. Isn't there. I mean, it's exactly, um, you know, somebody might talk about the risks of alcohol or the risks or something else, and then draw some, you know, huge conclusion about well therefore people

Starting point is 00:33:25 should not do should not drink anything or shouldn't do this that and the other and if it actually doesn't necessarily follow you haven't even shown necessarily that there's a causal link between the exposure what we would call technically an exposure which might be having a drink or or eating a certain food. We always know those food stories come up all the time about the risks involved in those. And you haven't even proved that, let alone got the authority to start telling me what to do. So talk about some of the interesting statistics that people have come up with, that people have used as examples of what we're talking about to make this a little more real. Yeah, I mean, the classic one is using this idea of what's called

Starting point is 00:34:10 a relative risk, telling you that something, oh, this doubles the risk of a heart attack, or this increases the risk of cancer by 20% or so, and so on. And that's a well-known, absolutely manipulative way to tell a story because psychological experiments have shown that this gives a rather exaggerated sense of, of the importance of something. I mean, it's an old example, but one often give us,

Starting point is 00:34:35 you know, people about eating bacon. I quite like bacon. And then you read that, well, if you eat bacon regularly, it's going to increase the risk of bowel cancer by 20%. And this, I think, actually, is probably roughly true. There's a lot of evidence of that now.

Starting point is 00:34:56 But then actually, well, okay, does that matter? You know, do I care? Because you have to ask, well, 20% of what? And how much of bacon do you have to eat? And it turns out that you have to eat, you know, three or four bacon sandwiches a week for that to hold. And that your risk of bowel cancer anyway is about six in a hundred. And so that 20% increase really goes from six in a hundred to seven in a hundred. That's the 20% increase. That means that 100 people are going to have to eat, you know, 100 and 200 bacon sandwiches a year for their whole lifetime to get one extra case of bowel cancer. That's about a million bacon sandwiches. Now, I'm putting that perspective where you think, well, you know, maybe I might occasionally have a bacon sandwich. You know, maybe even if it is car carcinogenic it clearly isn't that carcinogenic and so i think by reframing the numbers in a different way we can change the emotional

Starting point is 00:35:54 impact of a story yeah but see only you could unravel that the way you just did i mean i could not hear that argument about bacon sandwiches and and be able to analyze it the way you just did. Yeah, this is so important. And thinking in terms of what does it mean for 100 people? You know, see, that's what I did. I thought, what does it mean for 100 people? Well, the technical term is expected frequencies. You know, how many would you expect out of 100 people or 1,000 people?

Starting point is 00:36:23 And telling it the story in that way, first of all, it's actually not that difficult to do. And we can teach school kids to do it. We know that's been shown. And secondly, you know, it provides quite a good visual image. If you want to do a little infographic, you can show 100 people and light up the one extra getting bowel cancer because they're all stuffing their faces with this disgusting bacon all the time. So it's an enormously powerful and extraordinary simple tool just to think, what does it mean for 100 people? Sometimes I hear people use numbers, statistics, politicians do this a lot where they use statistics and I probably don't care enough to go research it to see if what they said was true. But I've often thought, well, wait a minute.

Starting point is 00:37:09 Well, says who? Where did that come from? Where did that number come from? And I know that sometimes people have been caught and they said, well, they just made it up. You know, this thing of just working out, is this number even feasible? Is it? Because often, you know, they can be, numbers can be way out. Very important to think of when someone does give a number.

Starting point is 00:37:32 Again, is it a big number? Is it even a correct number? Is to give it a reality check and to put it in perspective. Often just thinking about what does that mean per person? Or what does that mean, you know mean in a town that I know? How many people would this be? And it's extraordinary how people can are trying to show the hugeness of a number to, you know, express it in its largest possible way.

Starting point is 00:38:11 And when people are trying to show that it's minimal impact, they will take that same number and it's, you know, pennies a day per person. Do you think that's fair or, and that's just the rules of the game or do you think not? I think that there's no correct frame for any of these things. The simplest thing is positive or negative framing when we're talking about a risk. So in the U.S., if you go onto the websites, you can find out that there's roughly a 2% mortality rate from heart surgery. And in the U.K., there's a 98 survival rate whoa well that sounds much better it's exactly the same but we we use survival rates and in the us you use mortality

Starting point is 00:38:53 rates and so that's a simple reframing to change the emotional impact of a number and the recommendation is we use both just you know when you're explaining to someone that you know maybe there an offer, you're going to do an operation, you say, you might use survival first. There's 98%, 98 out of a hundred people who get this operation, 98 will survive, but two will die. And that's, and that's giving you both frames, a positive and a negative frame, not just choosing one, because if you just use one, it is manip manipulative you are trying to either reassure or rather frighten people so so similarly if you're expressing a number you can say well you know over a year in the whole country it adds up to you know billions of dollars and then you can also say yeah but you know at an individual level that's only a few you know cents per day per person

Starting point is 00:39:42 and so i think you need multiple frames. There's no correct way of expressing a number. And actually to give both ones that make it look large and look small is a fair and balanced thing to do. Nobody ever does it, I note. But that's what you really should be doing. And someone who's genuinely trying to inform you rather than persuade you would be giving you both a positive frame and a negative frame. I've often seen people say when using statistics, they'll throw out a number and they'll say, you know, 87% of blah, blah, blah. And I will say or someone will say, well, where did that number come from?

Starting point is 00:40:21 And, you know, they brush that aside. It isn't important where it came from. It's a statistic. And they'll say, what's a well-known statistic? Well, not to me, but to me, that ought to be a deal killer. If you're going to use a statistic and you can't explain where it came from or who came up with the number, well, I don't think you get to use the number. It's very, it's very difficult because this, as I said, is the first question you could ask is, well, where does that number go? Can I believe the number, let alone the conclusion, let alone the story? You know, can I believe the actual number?

Starting point is 00:40:54 And, again, I wish more people were just challenged on that. You know, when I listen to the radio or the television and some politician or somebody else spouts out some number, I want the interviewer to say, well, how do you know? Where did you get that from? And I bet they'd be just say, oh, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And they wouldn't be able to answer. They wouldn't know where that number came from. They wouldn't know whether it was true or not. They just were given it by some researcher or somebody, and it's a soundbite number. And they don't know where it comes from. So I think people should be challenged more often

Starting point is 00:41:25 to say what's your evidence? What is your evidence for this claim? And I think that's the most basic question that we should be asking of anybody making a claim. First of all, even before we start saying is it a big or a small number, we should say well do we actually believe it? What's the evidence for that? And I think that would stymie quite a lot of people who want

Starting point is 00:41:50 to persuade us rather than inform us i work in a group in cambridge and our sort of motto is to inform and not persuade and and because we know that the way that statistics are so often used is to persuade us i'm much more willing to believe somebody when they in their argument say according to the blah blah blah blah rather than just give me the number with nothing to support it i mean if they'll at least cite their source they don't have to go you know footnotes but but but at least cite their source, they don't have to go, you know, footnotes, but, but, but at least give me an idea.

Starting point is 00:42:28 As a, as a, as a sign of trustworthiness. First of all, they should be able to say where that number came from. Secondly, they should be able to say how certain are they about it? No,

Starting point is 00:42:37 because you know, they don't know most of the time these numbers as we know, we know that they're based on quite often based on surveys, a lot of judgment. You know, how do they know this? Oh, I must just say one thing that we've got a wonderful philosopher here in Cambridge called Nora Neal who studies trustworthiness and trust.

Starting point is 00:42:56 And she's really identified features of a good trustworthy communication, transparent communication of a number. communication transparent communication of of a number and the four aspects which is really um you know very sensible of any actually they hold for any information first of all that the information should be accessible that people should be able to get at it and find it and and secondly it's got to be comprehensible they're going to understand what they're being told um it's going to be usable it's got to it's got to be comprehensible. They've got to understand what they're being told. It's got to be usable. It's got to actually answer their questions, their concerns.

Starting point is 00:43:29 It's got to be relevant to what they're actually anxious about. And the final one, I think this is so clever, is it's got to be accessible. Somebody, if they want, needs to be able to check you're working. Now, most people won't. They will just take it on trust. But some people might want to know, where did that come from? How do you know that? And you have to be able to demonstrate you're working if someone asks you. You said earlier that you as a statistician can make any number do whatever you want. You can make it sound big to support that side of the argument.

Starting point is 00:44:02 You can make it sound little to support the other side of the argument. And so if statistics are so easily manipulated, what's the point then? Why bother? It's not always like that. Sometimes, you know, there are good numbers there. And to be honest, you know, I love numbers. And for all their faults and with all the way they can be used and manipulated, I'd rather have them than not have them because otherwise all you've got is appeals to emotion you've got populism you've got you know just people just making arguments they can say anything because they don't have to provide the evidence they don't have to provide the magnitudes of the problem someone can complain about oh there's too many of this is too many you know migrants there's too much

Starting point is 00:44:45 this is too many well actually you know well how many are they because unless people can give a magnitude of a problem and to actually we cannot judge whether this is something that's genuinely important or whether this is someone who's just manipulating our emotions so that you know for all their problems you know without statistics without an idea of magnitudes i think we're in a terrible terrible mess any last uh a piece of advice any last thing people can use tricks trade of the trade that uh either to to interpret statistics or to use them so the other thing of course, is correlation is not causation. That's an old cliche that every statistician says, that just because two things happen at the same time

Starting point is 00:45:33 doesn't necessarily mean they're causally linked. I mean, the classic one is vaccines and autism, which do tend to be, you know, autism often is diagnosed roughly at the same time that kids are being vaccinated. So of course, many times when the diagnosis just follows close on the vaccination. So they're correlated. But as far as anyone can make out, they are not causally related. And so we can be easily misled by correlation. And to, you know, to be check on that, I think is another really crucial question

Starting point is 00:46:07 to ask. Well, you know, 96% of our US audience loves listening to people with British accent. So thank you for coming on and talking about this. David Spiegelhalter has been my guest. He is a British statistician, and he is author of the book, The Art of Statistics. There's a link to his book in the show notes. Thanks, David. Thanks, Mike. It's been a real pleasure doing this. I'm deeply honored to be on your show. If you want someone to do something for you, how you phrase it can make all the difference.

Starting point is 00:46:41 People don't like to be backed into a corner, even if you're making a simple request, so it may be better to give them the freedom to say no, so that they'll more likely say yes. In a study, people were more likely to donate money when the phrase, you'll probably refuse but, was used. Requests with phrases like that, or something similar, like you don't have to but, gives people a sense of freedom when it comes to saying yes or no.

Starting point is 00:47:10 Basically, you're giving them an out, the freedom to choose not to do something. Whatever they choose now is now their idea, not a restrictive request you forced upon them. Because your request puts them into consideration, they're more likely to help you out and say yes. And that is something you should know. As always, I invite you to share your brilliance and wisdom with your friends by telling them about this podcast and asking them to listen. I'm Mike Carruthers. Thanks for listening today to Something You Should Know. Welcome to the small town of Chinook, where faith runs deep and secrets run deeper. In this new thriller, religion and crime collide when a gruesome murder rocks the isolated Montana community.

Starting point is 00:47:56 Everyone is quick to point their fingers at a drug-addicted teenager, but local deputy Ruth Vogel isn't convinced. She suspects connections to a powerful religious group. Enter federal agent V.B. Loro, who has been investigating a local church for possible criminal activity. The pair form an unlikely partnership to catch the killer, unearthing secrets that leave Ruth torn between her duty to the law,

Starting point is 00:48:19 her religious convictions, and her very own family. But something more sinister than murder is afoot, and someone is watching Ruth. Chinook, starring Kelly Marie Tran and Sanaa Lathan. Listen to Chinook wherever you get your podcasts. Contained herein are the heresies of Redolph Buntwine, erstwhile monk turned travelling medical investigator.

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Something You Should Know - SYSK Choice: How to Figure Out Anything & The Art of Statistics

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