Something You Should Know - Where To Find Answers to Your Toughest Problems & How Weather Works
Episode Date: February 20, 2025How dangerous can a pair of shoes be? Really dangerous, particularly if they have big heels. We begin this episode looking at the long story of high heel terror plus other interesting facts about wome...n’s shoes. https://reut.rs/3rXNqoR & https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150521120924.htm Most day-to-day decisions you make based on your own judgment. Things such as what career path to take, who to marry, what to do to make yourself happy and other life-changing decisions you make all on your own. However, for all those and other decisions there is solid data that can help. Here to explain this is economist, and former Google data scientist, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, author of the book Don’t Trust Your Gut: Using Data to Get What You Really Want in Life (https://amzn.to/3kiHySZ). What’s the difference between rain and a rain shower? What causes dew and frost? Can clouds predict the weather if you know how to read them? These are some of the questions I explore with Tristan Gooley author of The Secret World of Weather (https://amzn.to/3MFQBcv). This discussion will change the way you look at the weather. There are some people who just can’t seem to stop working. They work on weekends, holidays and even while on vacation. That might sound like dedication, but it is actually a problem. Listen as I reveal the dangers of working too much and what you should really be doing with your time off. https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/169/5/596/143020 PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS!!! FACTOR: Eat smart with Factor! Get 50% off at https://FactorMeals.com/something50off DELL: Anniversary savings await you for a limited time only at https://Dell.com/deals SHOPIFY:  Nobody does selling better than Shopify! Sign up for a $1 per-month trial period at https://Shopify.com/sysk and upgrade your selling today! HERS: Hers is changing women's healthcare by providing access to GLP-1 weekly injections with the same active ingredient as Ozempic and Wegovy, as well as oral medication kits. Start your free online visit today at https://forhers.com/sysk INDEED: Get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at https://Indeed.com/SOMETHING right now! CURIOSITY WEEKLY: We love Curiosity Weekly, so listen wherever you get your podcasts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Today on Something You Should Know, the hidden dangers of women's shoes.
Then the surprising ways data can help you make better choices from finding a mate, being
happy or getting rich.
They analyzed all the data of basically everybody rich in the United States of America and they
concluded that the typical rich American is the owner of a regional business such as an auto dealership or beverage distribution
company. That kind of shocked me for multiple reasons. Also how working too much makes you
boring and forgetful and so much about weather you never knew and how weather affects everything,
even how trees grow. So if you look at a tree from all directions, you walk around one, you'll very quickly realize
that there's no such thing as a symmetrical tree.
And on average, there's just more tree.
There are bigger branches and more branches
and more leaves on the southern side.
All this today on Something You Should Know.
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Something you should know. Fascinating intel. The world's top experts. And practical advice
you can use in your life. Today, something you should know with Mike Carruthers. Hi, I'm one of those people that doesn't really like wearing shoes all that much.
Around the house, I pretty much wear socks and I'll admit that I'm not wearing shoes right now.
And I may be on to something because wearing shoes can be dangerous, especially high heels.
Wearing shoes can be dangerous, especially high heels. In fact, in one survey, over half the female population in the U.S. say they have been
injured as a result of wearing high heels.
And according to data from the Consumer Product Safety Commission's National Electronic Injury
Surveillance System, there have actually been injuries associated with wearing high heels
that resulted in trips to the emergency room. In fact, between 2002 and 2012 there were 123,355
high-heel-related injuries seen in the emergency room during that period. That's about 12,000 a year.
And it was people between the ages of 20 and 29 who were most likely to suffer an injury.
Some historians suggest that high heels have been around for nearly 300 years, and medical
professionals have been warning about the dangers of high heels for roughly the same
amount of time.
Sixty percent of women claim to regret at least one purchase of shoes, most women only
wear four pairs of shoes regularly, and 25 percent of their shoe collection have only
been worn once.
And that is something you should know.
You make a lot of big decisions in your life based solely on your gut. What feels right? Mostly because there really isn't much else to go on.
So you use your own judgment to decide things like who to date, who to marry, what career path to follow.
Figuring out what makes you happy,
how to be a good parent.
But what if there was some objective data on these topics that could really help you
make better choices?
Well, there is, according to economist and former Google data scientist, Seth Stevens
Davidowitz.
He's author of a book called Don't Trust Your Gut, Using Data to Get What You Really
Want in Life. Hi, David. Welcome to Something You Should Know. Hi, Michael Carruthers. Thank you for
having me. So I really like this idea, this idea of like using data and algorithms to make better
choices, which we generally don't do. So explain how you came up with this idea. But one of the motivations was that I'm a huge baseball fan. And any baseball fan knows
the story of baseball the last 25, 30 years, which is the explosion of analytics and data
analysis to make decisions. So baseball has just totally been transformed by data analytics.
And I'm a data scientist. So I've worked at Google as a data scientist. Every
decision is based on data. But it occurred to me that, certainly in my personal life,
I don't really make decisions based on much data. I just do what I think seems about right,
trust my gut basically. It occurred to me that maybe it would be interesting to explore some of these bigger areas of life.
Dating, picking a romantic partner, career success, happiness, parenting.
What would data tell you about these topics?
A moneyball for your life approach to the biggest questions that we face.
Also I knew because I'm in the field of data analytics that there's been an explosion of really credible research in these big areas.
To which some might say, well, but maybe some of these big questions are not better served
by data.
Maybe the old fashioned way of trusting your gut and doing it the way grandma did it is
better.
So as you look at the whole thing when the dust settles,
do you come away saying data is a better way
or it's too individual or data is not a better way?
I pretty strongly believe data is a better way.
Yeah, somehow that doesn't surprise me.
I kind of came into that with that idea.
Because it's been proven in every area it's been tested.
They've tested judges if they have
to decide whether someone on trial
is going to commit another crime or should they
or is it safe to let him be out, that algorithms are better
than judges at doing that.
They found that algorithms are better than principles
at deciding whether a teacher should be promoted. They found that algorithms are better than principles at deciding whether a teacher should be promoted.
They found that algorithms are better at doctors
at determining whether someone should be given a test
for a heart disease or cancer.
So it's been proven over and over again.
And all you have to do is look around.
It's not like people are nailing
these big life decisions as is.
You know, if you talk about marriage or picking a partner,
I mean, how many people do you know are in terrible
relationships or divorced multiple times? How many people do we know who are unhappy? Career success,
certainly many people have struggled to figure out what they should do. I think it's pretty obvious
just looking around that the current approach of using your gut is leading to less than optimal decisions.
And then the fact that there's been proof in every,
pretty much every arena that's been tested that data beats a gut is more
evidence in my favor.
So let's dive into some of these specifically.
And I wanted to maybe start with wealth because I,
I think there's this kind of skewed view of the best way to get rich
and the best way to be wealthy.
What does the data say?
Yeah.
There are these studies where they basically looked at the entire universe of people in
the top 1% or even top 0.1%.
They analyzed all the data of basically everybody rich in the United States of America, and
they concluded that the typical rich American
is the owner of a regional business such as an auto dealership or beverage distribution
company. That shocked me for multiple reasons. I didn't think of auto dealerships as paths
to wealth. I didn't know what a beverage distribution company is. But then you dig down the data,
they dig down, I dig down the data as well.
And you kind of start understanding
what that means and why that is and kind of what it really
takes to be rich in the United States.
One of the big points about being rich
is that the path to wealth is owning things, not a salary.
So among the top 0.1% of Americans, there's about a three to one ratio
people who own versus people who make a salary. Well, I imagine a lot of it has to do with what
kind of business you run or own because, you know, there are plenty of statistics about how
most new businesses fail, restaurants go out of business a lot of the time.
Well, they're not quite as bad as some people think.
There are definitely a lot of restaurateurs
that are in the top 0.1% and 1%,
but it's nowhere near as good as say an auto dealership
or a beverage distribution company or some other companies.
So what is it about auto dealerships
or beverage distribution companies
that make them the path to wealth?
Well, they actually have legal protections
against competitors.
So you can't just start an auto dealership.
There are laws of who's allowed to do this.
So one danger of being in business, I'm an economist.
So there's something called the zero price condition,
which is basically if you have profits, someone else will start a business in your, a competing business and they'll
kind of charge a lower price and they'll take away all your profits.
And that happens a ton in business.
I think, you know, people don't realize just how hard it is to actually have a business
that's consistently making money.
So you know, legal protection is definitely a good path
to making some money.
But there are other businesses that
have their own protections that aren't legal.
So market research turns out to be a really good business.
Just a large percent of people who start market research
businesses end up in the top 1% or top 0.1%.
So I guess mainly because these things are so visible,
a lot of young people think the path to wealth
is being an athlete or being a celebrity on YouTube
or trying to be a Kardashian or something like that.
I imagine the odds of that are pretty low.
Yeah, they are very low.
It's not as crazy as you might some times
think trying to be a celebrity because
there are ways you can dramatically increase your odds. The data also shows, and there have
been actually studies of artists and what it takes to be a successful artist. And usually what
separates them is not necessarily the art they've created that the art is so much better than
everybody else's, but they were just much more aggressive hustlers. So for example, there've been studies
of hundreds of thousands of painters
and they found that the painters who made it
traveled widely to every possible gallery,
different regions of the country, different countries,
any gallery that would take them,
they showed their work there
and eventually they kind of stumble on a big break
and the painters who didn't make it,
they just kind of presented their work in the same place
over and over again, hoping that someone would find them
and nobody actually did.
Well, isn't that true of any business?
The people who, no matter what business,
the few that are the real high achievers are the hustlers.
Yeah, I think you can definitely take the lesson
from artists who made it.
It depends a little on the fields.
So the more talent, the more you're judged objectively based on your talent,
the less hustling is going to matter.
So athletes, for example, sometimes it matters less how much you hustle
because it's much easier to see how good you are.
So, you know, a lot of the NBA stars,
they didn't even play basketball when they were kids.
They were just, you know, doing something else.
And then they turned out to be seven feet tall.
And everyone's like, here, here, put up here, play basketball, dunk it.
And they ended up being among the greatest basketball players of all time.
So the world kind of just found them and discovered them
and coached them and did everything for them.
Many fields are more like art than like athletics,
where it's much harder to judge who's got the most talent
or produce the best work.
And in that case, hustling is kind of the answer.
And you can take the lessons from the data of artists
and apply it in your own life.
And don't just stay in the same place
hoping that the world's going to find you.
Travel widely to get your big breaks.
So let's talk about happiness, because I
think people have a sense of what happiness is
and where it comes from.
What does the data say?
Yeah, so I became obsessed.
There are these projects.
It's called experience sampling projects,
where they ping people on their phones, and they ask them how happy they are, what they're doing,
who they're with. And they've found the activities that make people happy, the people that make people
happy, the weather that makes people happy. And I was telling people the results of these studies,
I was telling my friends, and I'm like, people are happiest when they're having sex or going on a hike or when they're with their friends
or with their romantic partner when it's 75 degrees and sunny.
And I was telling my friends, they're like, these are so obvious, do we need scientists
to tell us that?
But I think there's actually profundity in the obviousness of the happiness research
that a lot of modern life is trying to trick us and tell us that if we work hard enough,
make enough money, spend enough time on social media, we're going to be happy. But these don't
really make people happy. So I kind of concluded, what's the data-driven answer to happiness,
to really life? Because I think happiness is many people's goal for life. And I think the
data-driven answer to life is to be with your love on an 80 degree and sunny day,
overlooking a beautiful body of water, having sex, like those
are the simple things that tend to make people happy. And if
your life is very far from that, I'd, you know, ask yourself,
how can you do more of those simple, obvious things that
tend to make people happy?
Well, that's too simple.
I think there's kind of this contrast between what the world is telling you about happiness and what commercials are telling you about happiness and what the data says about happiness.
Yes, the data does offer simple answers to happiness. I think the data there is basically
right. Think of all the commercials,
all the things you advertise. They've actually done studies. When people buy these fancy products,
stuff, buy a lot of material goods, it doesn't make them happy at all. It wears off very,
very quickly. The things that do make people happy, the data says, really are that simple.
that do make people happy, the data says really are that simple.
Walks, hikes, friends, romantic partners,
nice days, all these things.
There's nothing more complicated than that about happiness.
And I do think what gets in the way
of a lot of people's happiness is they overcomplicate things
and they don't do enough of these simple things
that make people happy.
We're talking about data and how it can prove or disprove conventional wisdom and help you make better choices in life.
Seth Stevens-Dvidovitz is my guest. His book is called Don't Trust Your Gut. Are you crushing your bills? Defeating your monthly payments. Sounds like you're at the top of your financial game.
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So, Seth, we've talked about this on this podcast before. Isn't being out in nature a real contributor to happiness?
Nature plays a huge role in happiness. They've even done studies that when people visit parks,
you see their tweets and the mood of their tweets goes way up when they're in a park.
And even for four hours after they've been in the park,
they're still bathing in the happiness
of their walk through the park.
Being in a park, the data says, gives a mood boost
equivalent to Christmas Day.
Maybe on the flip side of that, you
talk about the misery-inducing traps of modern life,
or maybe these are the things people are doing or buying
to seek happiness that don't deliver.
Yeah, exactly.
So stuff is a great example of that,
that buying stuff doesn't make people happy.
Work is a great example of that.
When they ping people and when people are working,
they, on average, it's the second least happy activity.
The only more visible activity is being sick in bed.
So the average person when they're
working reports being unhappy and the world doesn't necessarily tell you that.
So in the quest to find love and the perfect partner, how can data help us there?
Yeah, so I think the big lesson from the data on dating and romantic fulfillment is that there's an enormous disconnect
between what people seek and what makes people happy. If you look at data from dating sites,
what do people try to date? They try to date someone beautiful. They try to date someone
tall if it's a man, tall men are much more likely to be clicked on to get messages on online dating sites.
They try to date men with certain sexy occupations.
Lawyers do very well in dating.
Military men, firemen do very well in dating.
They try to date people with sexy names.
There are all these names that lead to better dating success.
They try to date people similar to themselves, even on silly dimensions.
They try to date someone with their same initials.
It's been shown that you're 11.3 percent more likely to
match with someone if they share your initials.
For some reason, people think this is attractive to people.
When you actually look at the data and what makes
people happy in romantic relationships,
these things that people are drawn to
tend not to correlate with long-term happiness.
People who end up with beautiful partners
really don't report that they're happier.
People who end up with taller men
or men in desired occupations,
or even people with lots of similarity to themselves
don't report greater happiness.
If there's anything that leads to happiness,
it tends to be the psychological traits in a partner,
a partner having a growth mindset, being conscientious,
satisfied with life, happy.
This is from the largest study of romantic partners,
more than 11,000 couples.
What in all the data that you looked at,
what, if we haven't talked about it, surprised you
the most or that you found the most interesting?
Also dating, there's this Christian Rudder, studied hundreds of thousands of couples on
OKCupid, an online dating site.
And he found that the most successful daters tend to be beautiful people.
You know, people think of Brad Pitt or Natalie Portman, Scarlett
Johansson, Leonardo DiCaprio. Okay, yeah, we get it. Everybody wants to date them. They're
beautiful, whatever. But then he found other people who did really well. These are people
who had extreme looks. So think of like heterosexual woman who shaved their heads or people who dye
their hair blue or wear wacky glasses. And what happens with these unconventional data is,
is they have, they polarize people. So some people think they're really, really unattractive,
but some people think they're really attractive. And in dating, that's kind of all that matters.
So the data suggests that you can get 70% more matches.
If you're not conventionally beautiful, you get 70% more matches by being an extreme version
of yourself and kind of just appealing to a niche market who will be really into you.
And yeah, some people will think you're disgusting or hideous.
Who cares about them?
A small group will really like you.
So that really surprised me.
I know you found some surprising data on parenting
that I think any parent would be interested in hearing
about what affects how their kids turn out.
Where it seems like the biggest decision
that parents can make is where to raise their kids.
And particularly the adult you expose your kids to. There's great
evidence that kids are likely to follow in the footsteps of their neighbors. So putting your
kids around adults you want them to turn out to like can be maybe the best thing you can do as a
parent, even better than things you just do when you're one-on-one with them. Kids may rebel against
you, may turn against your advice,
but they're really likely to follow in the footsteps
of the other adults that you expose them to.
So little girls who are exposed
to lots of adult female scientists,
much more likely to become scientists themselves.
Black males who grow up around a lot
of successful black males, even not their father,
much more likely to have much more successful life outcomes.
What does the data say about the role of luck in your life?
Because it seems to me,
it plays a bigger role than a lot of people think it does.
Yeah, so luck definitely plays a big role in life,
but as far as success goes,
it's less about getting unusually lucky
and more about there are things you can do that allow you to get more lucky and take advantage
of the luck you have. There have been studies that show the most successful artists release the most
work in the world. So they just put more work out there and eventually one of their pieces just got
really, really lucky. Well, other artists didn't put as much work out there.
They questioned themselves.
They almost pre-rejected themselves
and they didn't allow luck to find them as much.
I think that's true in dating as well.
And I think frequently what happened is the person
who dates well out of their league,
just asked way more people out and was rejected more because you kind of,
yeah, you eventually get lucky.
For some reason, someone's gonna be attracted to you
who you wouldn't necessarily predict
and too many people pre-reject themselves
and don't allow for that lucky break
that that person who you're really attracted to
also is attracted to you back.
So even applying for jobs, there have been studies
that scientists who apply for more jobs
are more likely to get more interviews.
Too many people pre-reject themselves,
don't allow themselves to get that lucky break.
Well, you talk a little bit about the outsider's edge,
which is this concept that people who aren't in the know
on something have an advantage because they bring
this fresh thinking that they're not, what is that?
Yeah, that's actually just not true, it's a myth.
There are all these myths that data debunks.
It's kind of a surprising idea,
but it got a lot of airplay in part
because it's so surprising where people say,
being outside a field can give you an edge that
if you're too inside a field, you'll be too stuck in the ways of the field. You won't see the
surprising idea that actually works. When you actually look at the data, for example,
of businesses that have succeeded, the most successful businesses tend to be started by
people very, very close in that field, people that real experience, not just in the broad field,
but in the very, very narrow field.
So if it's a soap manufacturing business,
the most likely person to succeed in that business
is not just someone who has experience in manufacturing,
but someone who has experience in soap manufacturing.
So really the outsider's edge is a myth
that's gotten too much airplay, I think.
What are some of the other myths that you uncovered?
Oh, the myth of youth in entrepreneurship. There have been studies that have shown the average
successful entrepreneur in their 40s and the chance of starting a business increase up until
the age of 60, which again, people think if you want to start a business, you need
to be in your college dorm room.
There have been all these examples of successful entrepreneurs, 19-year-old, 20-year-old, 21-year-old.
That's really the exception.
It's a myth.
It's the exception that goes against the rule.
There's a myth that entrepreneurs are failed employees because to be an entrepreneur, you need to think outside the box,
and you can't be a conventional working for the man and being a conventional employee. There's no
way you'd rise up to the top of entrepreneurship. Total myth as well. The best entrepreneurs are
great employees. And if you're thinking of starting a business, the fact that you've
already succeeded as an employee is a great sign that you're ready to go a business, the fact that you've already succeeded as an employee
is a great sign that you're ready to go out on your own
and start your own business.
Well, I always enjoy these conversations
that explain how the data either confirms or denies
the conventional wisdom.
And as you just pointed out, how the data
proves that a lot of conventional wisdom is amiss.
It's always fun to hear that.
Seth Stevens-Dvidovitz has been my guest,
and the name of his book is Don't Trust Your Gut,
Using Data to Get What You Really Want in Life.
And there's a link to his book in the show notes.
I appreciate it, Seth. This was great.
Thanks so much, Michael.
A while back, we had Ramit Setti on as a guest,
and he's one of the smartest people you'll ever know when it comes to everyday money matters.
He was here talking about money and couples.
As it turns out, he has his own podcast called Money for Couples, which if you're part of
a couple, then I highly recommend you listen to this podcast.
Because when you do, instead of fighting about money, you and your partner
will discover how to start building a rich life together. Money for Couples is a podcast
full of real-life actionable advice like how to pay off your debt and still enjoy your
life, how to build a shared financial vision, how to spend extravagantly on what you love
and cut back on what you don't.
And you'll learn from real world stories of couples facing the same money challenges as
you.
All of the episodes are helpful, but if I had to pick one or two, there's one called
�We make $300,000 a year but spend like we make a million.� That's a situation
I think a lot of people can relate to.
And another is called � we've saved for retirement,
but have no money to spend now.
Money for Couples is the name of the podcast,
hosted by Ramit Sethi.
And all you have to do is search for Money for Couples
wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts.
Ladies and gentlemen.
What are you doing?
What do you mean?
I'm making it simple. I'm do you mean? Just keep it simple.
I'm making the promo.
Just keep it simple.
Just say, hey, we're the Brav Bros,
two guys that talk about Bravo.
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls,
we're the Brav Bros.
No.
Dude, stop with the voice.
Just keep it simple.
I've seen promos on TV, dude.
This is how you get the fans engaged.
This is how you get listeners.
We're trying to get listeners here.
If we just say, oh, we're two dudes that talk about
Bravo people are gonna get tired of it already we need some umph all right then
fine let's try to do it with your voice brav bros good job
when you think about weather you probably think of things like temperature
rain wind snow those kind of things like temperature, rain, wind, snow, those kind of
things because those are the things we're familiar with and have experienced. But there are a lot of
things about weather that may have escaped your attention. Really interesting things.
And that's what Tristan Gouli is here to reveal to you. Tristan is an author who writes about
things in nature and his latest book is
The Secret World of Weather. And I promise that after you hear this, you're going to notice things
you've never noticed before when you're outside in the weather. Hey Tristan, welcome. Thanks for coming
on. Thanks for having me on. I guess because we're in it all the time and we see weather forecasts on TV,
we think we have a pretty good working knowledge of weather, right? There are some big signs that
people may be loosely familiar with, but the really undiscovered world and the reason I
ended up writing a book with the title The Secret World of Weather is the smaller signs,
the things that are going on,
you know, sometimes within touching distance.
And that's what gets me really excited,
is when I go outside and I go, wow,
how did I not notice that for 20 or 30 years?
And suddenly it's there in front of me.
And that's, yeah, that's what fired me up
for the last three years.
So give me an example of you walking out and saying,
how did I not notice this for the last
20 years? What, like what? I'll give you a couple. One, so much of the small weather signs are related
to the key forces of the sun and the wind. There's a thing called a sun pocket, which is where
we can find a place in a landscape which is a lot warmer
than even somewhere only 30 feet away. And to do that, we just have to find a spot that's in
direct sunlight. You know, it's no great surprise that being in the sun is warmer than being in the
shade. But the slightly cunning thing is you get these really super warm pockets if you can find
somewhere that is both in
the sun but actually has shelter directly above you and that stops the heat escaping vertically
upwards. So as an example, February of this year I went out with a picnic, it was very cold and I by
finding a spot underneath a conifer where the sun could reach in, a low winter sun could reach in,
but the heat couldn't escape upwards, I was able to sit there very comfortably for 20-25
minutes, but if I'd moved out from under the tree, and it's a little bit
counterintuitive, we'd sort of imagine being out in the open in the sun would
be warmer, it would have been far too cold to sit around eating a picnic.
Equally, the wind behaves very differently around any obstacles, but
let's stick with trees for now.
If you're moving across an open area and you get used to feeling the breeze,
what you can notice is that the breeze accelerates underneath an isolated tree.
If we think of a sort of almost like a stereotypical tree with a nice big green canopy
and a gap underneath where we see the tree trunk. If you walk in underneath
that canopy, the breeze will accelerate. The physics is the same as the way air accelerates
over an aircraft wing. It will actually accelerate underneath the tree. Now, both of those examples,
the warmth on a cold day can be really practical and helpful. I can remember waiting for a
bus on a very cold day and you can be really quite warm in a bus shelter, but sometimes not even understand why. It's just more fun when you
understand why that the sun is coming, is reaching in, heating things up, but then the heat doesn't
escape. So it's, it just really just turns the temperature sort of a dial up and makes things
much more comfortable in winter. Yeah. Well, not only have I never noticed that, but as you say,
you know, it's counterintuitive to think that
under a tree would be warmer, you would think that that out in the sun, you would be warmer and under
the tree, it would be colder, but the reverse is true. And yeah, these are things like you would
never Well, how do how did I not notice that? Yeah, so much of my work is obvious in hindsight, but people can go their whole lives
and not notice it.
So I mean, my work is rooted in natural navigation, finding a way just using nature's signs.
And there are over 20 ways we can navigate using a tree.
But I'm fairly confident that, you know, fewer than one in 100 people will know more than
one of those 20. So
but once you explain that trees are bigger on the southern side and that the angles of branches are
different, people go out there and they see it and once you see these things and experience these
things you can't unknow that if you know what I mean. Every time it's there it sort of announces
itself to you and that's what I mean is like, wow, it's really not deeply hidden.
We don't have to peel back 10 layers to find this stuff. It is in front of us. And I often say to
people when they don't understand the strange line of work I'm in, and I don't presume people
should understand it, it is quite odd what I do. But I say to them, pick anything that you've seen
outdoors today, literally anything, and you can do this and how much Mike, if
you want, and I will find a clue in it.
So tell me some of the ways that trees help you said that the
southern side of a tree is bigger. What do you mean?
Yeah, so one of the cornerstones of natural navigation is that
the sun is due south in the middle of the day, if for
everyone north of the tropics, which is almost all of the USA,
all of Europe and
lots of other places as well, the sun reaches its highest point when it's due south in the middle
of the day, halfway between sunrise and sunset. And that's when it gives us most of its light and
energy. And of course, the trees need this light, it's their breakfast, lunch and dinner. So it
actually be quite odd if trees were symmetrical, bearing in mind, you know, light is what's feeding them.
So what they tend to do is they respond to the stimuli like light, and they actually just grow more on the southern side.
So if you look at a tree from all directions, you walk around one,
you'll very quickly realize that there's no such thing as a symmetrical tree.
And on average, there's just more tree. There are bigger branches and more branches
and more leaves on the southern side.
I never knew that.
Yeah, that's, that's, if you ask anyone to draw a tree, it doesn't matter if they're
five years old or 95 years old, they'll draw a symmetrical tree. It's sort of how we imagine
a tree. But if the X billion trees on planet Earth, there isn't one symmetrical one. They are all
asymmetrical and and one of the kind of core ideas of my work is that two sides of everything are different and
If we ask the question why is one side different to the other it will tell us something about where we are It'll tell us something about either direction or or possibly what the wind has been doing and and through that we can start to build
Up a richer picture of what's going on around us.
So tell me some other things like that that I don't know.
Well, I'll put myself on the spot here.
You tell me one thing you've seen,
and we haven't prepped this.
I genuinely have no idea what you're going to say.
Tell me something you've seen outdoors in the last few days.
Well, I saw fog when I woke up this morning.
It was foggy outside.
OK, so fog, the simplest way to think of it is it's a low cloud.
There are different types of fog. But if you see fog early in the morning,
it's a counterintuitive sign that actually the weather is probably going to be quite good
because it's a type of fog called radiation fog.
And what happens when we see fog very near the start of the day
is it's actually a sign that the sky's been clear overnight.
Heat has radiated out of the land.
The land has grown very cold
and moist air when it touches cold land
forms this blanket of fog in the morning.
So if it's a still morning and you walk out into fog,
there's a pretty good chance
the sun will be shining by lunchtime.
So let's talk about clouds, because I mean,, you walk outside, you look at clouds, there
they are, and we sometimes see images in them and some of them look different than others.
So give me the ABCs of clouds.
Yeah, the cloud world is like a lot of nature, it can be intimidating because people are maybe curious and
they start to investigate it and then they start getting hit by too much Latin and they start
realizing there's a classification system and maybe I'm meant to learn the names of 20 different
clouds and I come up all of these things in a totally different way. Names are never important.
Because we can look at a sign in nature like a cloud and worry about what type of Latin word and stuff like that,
but actually you could go to meet an indigenous person on the other side of the world and they will be able to see the sign in it.
And you'll never agree what that cloud should be called.
So that's a really important point for me is that names are never actually the interesting part, but shapes and patterns are.
So in clouds, what we do is we think about three main families of clouds. There are the blanket
clouds, which if we're going to use the Latin is stratus, just from the Latin for blanket.
And these are the long flat, you know, they can cover an entire landscape. And they're pretty
dreary. And they just really tell you that there's not going to be much change over the next few
hours. And if there's any change, it's going to be glacial in pace. Everything's going to happen
very slowly. They are the least interesting of the three. The other two, the next one we look at is
the bubbling up heaped clouds, the cumulus clouds and these are the ones that the easiest way for
me to describe them is if you've seen the opening credits of The Simpsons or pretty much any other cartoon cloud, you've
got a blue sky and these clouds typically have a flat bottom and they bubble up.
They look like a, you know, a bunch of white soccer balls in a bag.
And they are telling us something very specific.
They are saying that there is convection, there is warm air rising in that particular spot. For me as a natural navigator, there's some really fun things
you can do with them in terms of making a map. So they form over islands, they form
over dark woodland and they form over towns because each of those landscapes warms up
more quickly than the land around them. So whether it's a Pacific navigator in the middle
of the ocean looking
for an island, they'll be looking for cumulus clouds, or if you're walking or driving across
a wild area looking for a town, there's a very good chance that if it's a blue sky day,
there'll be cumulus clouds over the town, but not anywhere surrounding it. Equally over
dark woodland, the same thing. And then the third family are the high wispy ones.
I forget what you call it in the States.
We call it candy floss, that kind of sugary candy stuff
that we get at fairs here.
Do you know the stuff I mean?
Cotton candy we call it.
Cotton candy, yeah, thanks.
I forgot the term, but it looks very wispy.
It's very high, this cloud.
The Latin is cirrus.
Sometimes people think it looks like feathers,
and it does have lots of different forms.
And that can be used for longer-term forecasting.
So if you've had a period of sunny, settled weather,
one of the early signs that things are about to get worse
is this wispy cotton cotton candy feathery high clouds
is one of the earlier signs that because it's so high it's the leading edge of a warm front system
coming through which can lead to a couple of days of bad weather. So this might be fun maybe,
let's take on a walk down an imaginary street or imaginary path
and tell me some of the things that you would notice
that tell you where you are or where you're going
or help you navigate.
As I look out of the cabin window
that I'm in at the moment,
I'll just pick a couple of things I've seen there.
Leaves, for example, so leaves are smaller
on the south side of a tree
and bigger on the north side of a tree.
And the way their angle changes as well. So they tend to be, they tend to point more down towards the ground on the south side and they tend to be closer to horizontal on the north side.
And it's not, you know, the tree or the leaves don't care about north, south, east, west. These are just obviously organic responses to what's going on out there.
If I'm just looking at the ground, I can actually see a puddle. We've had a bit of rain today,
and puddles can form anywhere, but the way they dry is quite specific. So they're obviously going
to dry more quickly in the sun and more slowly in the shade. And if you're walking along a track or
a road, the south- facing side is actually the north
side.
So you end up with longer lasting puddles on the south side of tracks and roads.
When you see weather, when you see it rain or snow or it's real windy, is that telling
you something?
Well, in the case of both rain and snow, the very first thing I'm trying to do is work
out which of the two cloud
families are we looking at here, because that will then reveal what's most likely to happen
over the next 12 hours. And whether it's snow or rain, the same branch is there. It's either
showers or it's blanket. If it's showers, it's coming from those heat clouds, the cumulus ones.
And what that means is it's,
the word showers is misunderstood these days a little bit. In weather terms, you know,
weather aficionados will know this, but if you're new to kind of looking for weather signs,
the word showers to some people means light rain, but actually it's much more precise than that.
Showers means short, distinct periods. So if you have a rain shower, it can actually be very, very
heavy. Same with snow. A snow shower can be really heavy, but it won't go on for an hour.
So the way I put it when I was writing about it is that, you know, showers don't last hours.
If it's blanket and it starts raining, there's a really good chance it'll be raining in three or
four hours time. Same with snow. But if we've seen cumulus clouds, a little bit of blue sky here and there,
and again a lot of this stuff is common sense when we're seeing it in hindsight, but it's very easy
to not actually pause and even go, well which of those two is it? If it showers you can plan
actually to have a quite fun day dodging them if you want to.
And if you haven't had snow for a while and you're enjoying it, you might actually want
to be out in it.
But yeah, they're very different experiences.
If blanket rain starts, it's not a good day to be outdoors, to be honest.
It's going to be a bit drought.
Let's talk about wind.
What makes the wind blow and why is wind so interesting?
Wind is air moving from a high pressure region
to a low pressure region.
And we can recreate this by blowing up a balloon,
but instead of sealing the neck,
if we just release the neck,
high pressure air in the balloon will flow towards the room,
which is at lower pressure.
And what's happening all around us
and on every scale imaginable from the vast, you know, thousands of miles down to, you know,
10 feet literally, is that the sun is heating some areas more than others and warm air expands and as
it expands its pressure reduces. So what's happening every single day is that the sun is heating the equator more than the
poles, for example.
So that leads to massive flows over literally thousands of miles.
But it's also going to heat the dark tarmac in a city more than the green outside the
city.
And that's why we see those clouds above a town.
In fact, I got a fun message from a friend who lives in the town nearest us. I live out in the
country and he said there's a couple of birds of prey I think they're buzzards
and they're orbiting, they're circling and it was it was about 11 o'clock
in the morning which is very early for birds to be doing that and I said
they're probably looking for a
car parking space. And he said, what are you talking about? I said, well, if you draw a line
vertically down from where they're circling, is that the large car park in the north of town?
And he goes, yeah, how on earth did you know that? I said, well, that's the only big dark place that
will be warm enough to create the thermal that they'll look for.
So it's, as I say, all wind is high pressure to low pressure.
But what I'm trying to do is encourage people to not just think this is about these huge, massive, massive kind of charts we see on TV or internet forecasts.
This is something that's happening within, you know, 50 feet of us every day.
And so why doesn't the pressure all just equal out
and be done with it?
Why does it change?
It's always trying to equal out, but actually,
air is a bit more viscous than most people think.
Everyone sort of imagines that it could equalize in five
seconds.
But it's more treacly than people imagine.
It can't move across the surface of the Earth
as fast as people might think it does.
But also the second it equals out somewhere,
the sun will create a difference somewhere else.
So if it was nighttime for 10 days solidly,
things would start to equal out,
but obviously that's not what we experience.
So everywhere the sun, at any one moment, the sun is
rising somewhere and it's setting somewhere else. So the
sun is sort of setting this game going the whole time. Every
time things start to equalize a little bit, there'll be the sun
heating up a bit of land more than the sea, or heating up the
low latitudes more than the high latitudes. So it's all driven by
the sun. And because, you know, it's sunny somewhere, always than the high latitudes. So it's all driven by the sun. And because,
you know, it's sunny somewhere, always, the game never ends.
What is dew and frost?
Dew and frost are related. And it's it's they're both a sign that we've had clear skies overnight,
similar to we were talking about fog a little bit earlier. It's a similar thing that if you
have clear skies overnight, the heat leaves the land. I think everybody's comfortable
with the idea that heat energy radiates from the sun to us, but people are slightly less
familiar with the way heat radiates out of everything, including us. I'm looking at a
desk and a chair. There's heat radiating out of those. I've got a cup of tea. There's heat
radiating out of that. Heat radiates out of the land and it does it much, much more quickly
and dramatically when there are clear skies. So what we tend to find is if you've got the blanket,
the stratus type cloud over an area at night, you wake up in the morning and there'll be no dew.
If the following night those clouds have cleared away and you've got clear skies, the land gets very, very cold overnight, the moisture in the air and there'll be no dew. If the following night those clouds have cleared away and you've got clear skies,
the land gets very very cold overnight, the moisture in the air, and there is always moisture in the
air, even over the the hottest deserts in the world, there's some moisture in the air, there's
no such thing as perfectly dry air on planet Earth, then that moisture comes into contact with the
cold ground, it condenses and forms dew, and if it's cold enough, it will form frost. So frost is just frozen dew.
Yeah, there are different types of frost, but the one most of us are familiar with,
that's the exact process.
It's dew forming at a cold enough temperature that it freezes on contact.
And one of the fun things we can do is both dew and frost is
just notice how it disappears when you walk under any form of shelter.
So whether it's a jutting bit of a roof or a tree
or anything else that stops heat escaping,
and you can probably start to sense
how the pieces sort of come together here.
We have a sun pocket we're warmer in
because the heat can't escape vertically upwards.
But the flip side of that is if the heat
can't escape vertically upwards, that bit of ground
will stay warm overnight, and you won't get dew or frost there.
And I think, again, everybody's had that experience.
You go out, and you see a frosty landscape.
But if you just pause for two seconds, you go,
I'm used to kind of seeing it, but I've never actually
thought, why is it more frosty there than there?
And why is there no frost there?
So what's one more way that you can navigate in the world
through looking at nature?
The other sort of real cornerstone
is prevailing wind direction.
So in most of the temperate parts of the world,
it's a little bit different in the tropics.
But in most of the US and Europe,
we find that the wind blows from one direction more often
than any other and that leaves footprints absolutely everywhere. So the tops of trees
will reflect that direction. So you can't predict what the wind's going to do from the prevailing
wind direction. So the wind can blow from the north, south, east or west on any day of the year
but over the course of a year there are patterns and they're fairly dependable.
So if it in my part of the world, the wind blows from the southwest more than than any other direction.
And that means I can look to the tops of trees and quite a few other places just to see that footprint.
You just see the trees bent over from southwest to northeast.
And wherever you are in the world, you just you just tune into what your local prevailing wind
is.
And if you're not sure, however you want to do it, you can look it up on the internet,
or you can just have a look at the tops of trees in a fairly exposed place, go up a hill
a little bit or something like that.
With practice, you can see it in parks in the center of cities, but when you're starting
out looking for that effect, you just want to look in places that are getting blown by the wind quite a lot
because it's a much more dramatic effect.
It's much easier to pick up.
Well, as funny as you're talking, I'm looking out the window
and looking at the tops of trees and looking at the south side of the trees
that I see. It's really interesting.
I know that when I drive the next time, I'm going to be checking out
some of the things that you've been talking about
Tristan Gouley's been my guest. He his book is called the secret world of weather and you'll find a link to his book in the show notes
Thanks for being here Tristan. This is fun
Cheers Mike really good chatting
When holidays or
When holidays, or vacations, or weekends roll around, are you one of those people who can really dive in and enjoy that time off?
Or do you find ways to keep doing your work?
If you like to keep working on your days off, listen to this.
It turns out that working too hard and putting in a lot of overtime in order to climb the
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actually mess things up for you in the future.
According to a study in the American Journal of Epidemiology, too much work over the years
can leave you absent-minded, dull your creative edge, and leave you more prone to dementia.
In the study, the people who worked the most overtime hours saw a significant drop in reasoning
power and vocabulary skills by the time they hit their early 50s.
So when it comes to overtime, maybe less is more.
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I'm Mike Carruthers.
Thanks for listening today to Something You Should Know.
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