StarTalk Radio - #ICYMI - March Madness!

Episode Date: March 23, 2017

It’s time for the NCAA Division 1 Basketball Tournament, aka March Madness. To make sense of it all, hosts Chuck Nice and Gary O’Reilly welcome bracketologist Chris Dobbertean, and Prof. Alan Zaremba, author of “The Madness of March: Bonding and Betting with the Boys in Las Vegas.”Don’t miss an episode of Playing with Science. Subscribe on:iTunes Podcasts: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/playing-with-science/id1198280360?mt=2Stitcher: http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/startalk/playing-with-scienceTuneIn: http://tunein.com/radio/Playing-with-Science-p952100/SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/startalk_playing-with-scienceGooglePlay Music: https://play.google.com/music/listen?u=0#/ps/Iimke5bwpoh2nb25swchmw6kzjqNOTE: StarTalk All-Access subscribers can watch or listen to this entire episode commercial-free. Find out more at https://www.startalkradio.net/startalk-all-access/ Subscribe to SiriusXM Podcasts+ on Apple Podcasts to listen to new episodes ad-free and a whole week early.

I'm Gary O'Reilly and I'm Chuck Nice and this is Playing With Science. Today I think we'll go just a little crazy and join in with March Madness and why not it's the sports event that will turn your office upside down lower national productivity and make someone an awful lot of money. Just maybe not those who do their brackets. That's so true. So, you know, March Madness is already in full swing. We're a little late to the party, but that makes it even more exciting because for three weeks, America just eats, drinks and sleeps. eats, drinks and sleeps college basketball, cheering on the Giant Killers,

giving it up for the Cinderella's and hoping that their college gets that fairytale ending and is crowned NCAA basketball champions. Yeah, right. But none of this can take place, so it seems, without a bracket. And to help us through to our final four is bracketologist Chris Dobbertine from blogging the bracket and getting us in behind the numbers and real madness of why we all go completely nuts this time of year is Professor Alan Zaremba, author of The Madness of March.

Yes. And keep an ear open as we just might be airing one of your questions throughout the show. I'm new to this. I'm new to the whole thing I knew it existed but I've never been around while it's happening and I get it I get the whole thing the build up how colleges structure schedules

so they can set themselves up to a better run in to get invited to the big show absolutely and all the buzz bubble teams Cinderella's those

if you don't get invited tough you're not going there's no appeals committee on this one. And it's all about the underdogs. I mean, everybody loves to see the upsets, you know, unless that busts your bracket. But people just love this.

You cannot walk by any bar in America during this time of year and not see college basketball up on the screen. And not find a commercial for March Madness something or other. Yeah, absolutely. It is. I actually just did a Buffalo Wild Wings March Madness commercial. Look for it. Anyone else feeling hungry?

It's never a good day to be a chicken. Yeah, I probably. Remember that? Exactly. That's funny. And I probably shouldn't have said that because it's not like they, they already paid me. So why am I plugging them? You like Buffalo Wings? I do. There you you go that's why you said that there you go right

okay time to bring on our first guest chris dobertine welcome chris welcome to playing with science hey chuck hey gary thanks for having me so before we go any further let's let the people know that you are the resident bracketologist and editor of blogging the bracket you also cover college basketball and bracket breakdowns and predictions for sbnation.com and i have actually seen you in action we did a live bracket show last year and let me just say for everybody watching and listening uh this is not like bs for Chris. This is like a real thing. This is your life. Am I right?

Yeah. Yeah. During from January to March, this is pretty much it. Yeah, man. And I watched you go through a pain staking process of putting together a bracket. And I got to be honest, um, it was not fun to watch. You guys are putting, I mean, you guys are really working when you do this. I'm a pro. This is a school day. I'm in the front row of the class because bracketology is a new part of the English language for me. I do believe I've

been recently informed it is in the Oxford English Dictionary so I am not about to criticise that in any way but I get it but I have yet to experience it so let's do that I'm really looking forward

to this because there's a bubble team what? Cinderella I understand yeah but

Elite Eight yes why isn't it Super Eight? don't worry moving on Sweet Sixteen so we've got these I've got a new language to learn as well as everything else so Chris But Elite Eight? Yes. Why isn't it Super Eight? Don't worry. Moving on. Sweet 16. So we've got these hard, I've got a new language to learn as well as everything else. So, Chris, please bring it on.

Let's start with, first of all, just explaining what the bracket is, bracketology is, and how you go about putting together a bracket. Well, every March, the NCAA, which runs college sports in this country, puts on a 68-team championship. It used to be 64, then it went to 65, now it's 68, all for basically for money reasons. Yep. What they do is, you know, the 68 teams, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conferences. They win a conference tournament, which is usually played this week, right before Selection Sunday, which this year is March the 12th. And the other 36 teams, there is a selection committee, which is the Division I Men's Basketball Committee, and they meet, they're meeting in New York right now

as we're speaking, and they actually pick those 36 teams, and they take those 36 teams and the 32 automatic bids, they rank those teams from 1 to 68, and place them into four regions which have somewhere between 16 and 17 to 18 teams because you might have two opening round games in the same region. The goal is they have a first four on Tuesday and Wednesday of right after Selection Sunday. Those four winners move on to the main bracket of 64. We have a nice solid bracket,

four regions of 16 teams each. The winner of each of those regions moves on to the final four, and those two semifinal winners play off to win the national championship. Wow. Good job, man. That was a great breakdown, Chris.

Even I understood that, so it was good. I'm just wondering, with the current trend, is there a WikiLeak for the selection already? Has it been posted? Well, you're joking, but Chris, go ahead and handle that. That's actually a real question you just asked. Go ahead. We scheduled our show last year so that it was supposed to be over. We were supposed to be going in time for the selections to have been made already. But last year they decided to expand the selection show, which used to be an hour long, to two

hours. And they drug it out. So we're sitting there and, you know, we're hearing, you know, matchups being, you know, announced, which we weren't expecting. And then all of a sudden, on Twitter we see rumors that the bracket has been expecting. And then all of a sudden on Twitter, we see rumors that the bracket has been leaked. Yep. And it ended up being a fake bracket. And it was true. It was the correct bracket. It had been leaked. So there is a wicked, there is nothing sacred for the, for the insane bracket. You know what, you know, you've made it when, when your whole thing gets leaked and it's a big deal. Yeah, man. Yeah. Yeah.

All right. So you just explained the process. That is the process, the selection process, the 32 automatic teams, the 36 selection committee teams, and then how they're put together to create the field of 64. Okay. Now we've got this nice round field of 64. Okay. And it all starts out with everybody on the outsides of the brackets. Okay.

How do you go about now moving inwards until you get to 16, Elite 8, 4, 2 champion? Even before we get there, aren't there some variables? Because you said 32 teams win their championships, the rest have to be invited. And if you don't get invited, don't complain. It's tough. Am I about right? So what are the criteria that you get selected on and invited? Well, the most important things and this is something that's a little bit different this year because we had a new twist to the process this year where a month ago, February 12th, the selection committee actually had for the first time a special on CBS where they announced their top 16 teams at that point. Granted, those could change over the final month. But for those of us who do bracketology, it gave us a nice idea of kind of what they're looking for. And this year, it seems like quality wins, which are wins against teams that fit within

the metric they use, which is called the ratings percentage index, the RPI, which is it's an old metric. It's been used for almost 30 years at this point. It's not basketball specific. Basketball people generally hate it, but it does a relatively recent job, decent job of telling you what teams have done into the season up to that point. It's not predictive, but it tells you this team has the first best schedule and performance, second best, and so on. They release those 16 teams. We have a good idea now

that quality wins, which are wins against the top 50 teams in that RPI metric, are kind of what the committee seems to want the most this year. So, so, so when making those selections and trying to figure out what those 36 invited teams are going to be, some of them are very obvious because, you know, their record is good enough. They beat enough good teams, but as you get towards the end and you get towards the cut line between 36 and 37, it gets a little more muddy. And you're wondering, you know, how do these teams play away from home?

Because playing road games and neutral courts, it's a tougher environment. And if you can win games in those environments, you're generally thought of as being a stronger team. How did you do in November and December? Because in college basketball, the season's really in two parts. November and December, because in college basketball, the season's really in two parts. In November and December, it's games that you have to schedule yourself. And then from January to March, your conference schedule those games. Okay. One second, Chris, what if you're a really good team, you don't win your championship, but you're in a weak conference? That's where the controversy usually comes in. Oh, good. I found controversy. Lovely.

Yes. Unlike me to find the bad bit. And this always comes up because if you're in a weaker conference, a lot of the times if you're a stronger team and if you're historically strong, say like Wichita State out of the Missouri Valley Conference, power conference teams, they don't want to play you. They don't want to play you at home. They certainly don't want to go visit you. Oh, so they're sneaky with the schedule.

Yes. They are very sneaky with the scheduling. So this is the problem. And this is always the controversy and the thing that we try to balance. Now, the selection committee, the membership changes every year. They usually lose three or four people because they kind of rotate on and off. So you have to kind of figure out what their backgrounds are and what schools they've worked for and where they've worked for us. You can kind of figure out their biases. And this year, we kind of suspect that the biases are going to be in favor of the power conference teams and not so much the mid-major teams. So they're going to be out of luck. So there's an element of telepathy involved in mind reading. This is real detective work, Chris. When I was in grad school, I studied Supreme Court decisions and trying to figure out

how justices would vote on cases based on their background, their political belief. Right. The other briefs that they've, the other dissents that they may have written or, I got you. So exactly. And it's very similar to that. It's more profitable to be a bracketologist than it is to go into law. I wouldn't say that. You're like, let's not get crazy. There are some mad numbers in and around March Madness.

But you carry on with the bracketology because this is my lesson for today. Okay. So now let's say you're putting together your bracket. What do you want to look for and how do you want to go about that? For those who are interested, first of all, you know, there's a lot of people who are putting together brackets because it's like an office thing. Everybody wants to, you know, everybody's putting their $5 in or their $10 in and they're picking their teams. And, you know, a lot of people like me, you just pick the colors that you like the most, the team with the best colors, or, you know, hey, look, I know that this team, their cheerleaders, awesome. I want to see them on CBS at some point. So those are the teams I'm picking. But if you're serious about it, how would you go about it?

Okay, before you answer that, if we've got a chance, we're going to go round to Berkshire Hathaway and get a job. Because I think you know where I'm going with this. Warren Buffett runs that bracket. Yes, he does. Because he loves sports and probabilities. Now, if you predict the first 32, you get $100,000. What?

Get? No, no, no, this isn't the kicker. The kicker is you predict the sweet 16, you get a million dollars. What? Each year for the rest of your life. What? That could cost Warren about 60 call, but then again, I think he could afford it. Yeah, $60 million.

Let's go. I think anyone who's got a chance, go around there now, get a job. I'm pretty sure there's a pair of mom jeans sitting in Warren Buffett's dryer right now with $60 million in it. I'm pretty sure about that. Chris. That's the one. My man.

There you go. This is what I'm trying to say to you. Can we please put together a plan with Science Bracket that will make us a cool million dollars a year for the rest of our lives? All we have to do is get down to the sweet 16. That's it. Chris, you can do this. You think you can do it, but this event is just known for surprises every year. But that being said, there are some things that, especially if you want to do a little bit of research, can really help you out. Okay, go ahead. The first thing for me is that I always

look for, especially when I'm looking for upsets, I look for teams that are lower seeded teams, especially, you know, 11, 12, 13 seed type teams that have good senior leadership. They have, you know, previous tournament experience. You know, maybe they were there the year before and, you know, pushed a team really hard, you really hard late and they're getting a second chance. Good guards. You want to have good guards because they do a good job of distributing the ball and just taking care of things and keeping the offense ticking. That's another thing you want. A team that can shoot the three-pointer. The three-point shot is the great equalizer in college basketball.

Almost to the point where it's gotten crazy, but that's another thing you want to watch. So those are kind of some factors in terms of teams you want to keep an eye on. Oh, okay. So, you know what, that's very simple to follow. Just to recap, you know, lower seeds, 13th around that. Good leadership, which means you're looking for some seniors that have been there and they're experienced. Previous tournament experience, and that means that they've been there before, so they don't have the big butterflies and the jitters. And when they get in front of the big crowd, they're not going to freak out and, where's my mommy?

And then good guards, because you got to be able to run the offense. And good guards also give you clock management as well, which is very important. And then three-point shooters, which is something I didn't ever consider, but I guess you're right. The whole game has changed that way. I would add, from my own personal experience of sport,

injuries, potential injury, injury history, and current injuries to key players. And then your disciplinary record. You might have a player with a talent off the chart, but he's not going to last 20 minutes on court because he's a bad boy. Oh, really? And then I'm going to go and tug the bad boy's ear every time I walk past him and he's going to lose it. There's a penalty and he's out of the game before you know it. So that stuff, that's real drilling down from a scouting report. You must have files inches thick on each team. Well, that kind of goes into the next thing

where you want to take a look at kind of how a team has been playing lately. You want to look at their schedule. You know, you want to look at those teams that happen to win both their conference regular season and tournament championships, the ones that got the automatic bids. But they also did the work during the regular season because those have been tested consistently. They're strong. They're not going to get flustered. That's one factor you want to look at. If you really want to dig deep, you want to look at how teams play based on different tip-off times. I say this based on the performance of my alma mater, the University of Florida,

which plays really well at night. So weeknight games, they usually do pretty well. But if they're scheduled for a Saturday afternoon, noon tip, not quite so good. Really? So if you really want to dig down, you can do that. And another factor you want to keep in mind, you want to look at where the games are being played in the tournament. Travel times. Yep. Travel times. You want to be careful of teams that are from the West Coast going east, having to play a morning game. Right. Also, you want to think of geographical considerations because of crowds. For example, two years ago, Providence played Dayton in Columbus, Ohio. And one of my friends yelled at me on Twitter saying, if I would have known this

game was in Columbus, I wouldn't have taken Providence. I would have taken Dayton. And that's the type of little things you want to keep in mind because teams might get unexpected home court advantages. The committee draws up the bracket. Yeah, because you're right. The geography will determine who has the home court advantage because more of your fans will show up. And the travel time thing, you know, that kind of is a factor in all sports. When you think about all sports, they all- Then again, you've got young athletes who haven't had so much travel hardening. You know, if you're in the majors, you know you live out of your suitcase.

Yeah, but I'm saying even in the majors, they say, like, if a West Coast team is going east- Oh, there's always a problem. They're like, hey, don't even count this. Don't, you know, if you're a West Coast team and you're, they're like, hey, don't even count this. If you're a West Coast team and you're a really decent matchup, but you're coming east to play, let's say, the Patriots, they're like, you're going to get murdered only because of the time difference. Traveling east is always the hardest one. Now, going to your old alma mater, Florida, my guess is Biorhythms. So they're geared up to playing an evening tip-off, right?

That's right. Lunchtime, they're having pregame nap. They're having a little bit of a nap. So when it comes to an early tip-off during the day, they're biorhythms saying, sleepy time. Okay, well, they deserve to lose. If they've got to take an afternoon nap, what the hell is this? This ain't the same day.

No, no, standard practice. Romp a room. Standard practice. You will go. You'll have a little lie down. You've got to take an afternoon nap, what the hell is this? No, no, no, standard practice. Standard practice. You will go. You'll have a little lie down. You've got to have a nap? Come up and go again. Yeah. All right.

Do you get milk and cookies, too? No. But that is a very important thing to think of because this is one of the only, you know, events on the American calendar where games pretty much go from noon to midnight. Right. Yeah. You know, on weekdays, you know, Thursday and Friday of the first and second rounds, you know, that weekend, it's all basketball from 12 to midnight,

you know, for four straight days. So this isn't a guy who just says, you know what, I'm going with the color of the uniform. This is scientific. Well, no, I mean, I know what Chris does, so I'm totally fine with him. Like I said, I'm front row of the class here. I'm at school. So I'm seeing a scientific process here from how you construct your bracket. All right. So let's continue. So now

after we've taken into consideration the geography, the times, the home court advantage, if that is the case or not, what else are we looking at? Are we looking at coaches at all? Are we looking at the administration at all? What are we looking at? You we looking at coaches at all? Are we looking at the administration at all? What are we looking at? You're looking more at coaches than the administration. You want to look at coaches who have, when I say administration, I mean the program. So like for instance, when you have certain programs, when you look at like North Carolina, that is a program. You know what I mean? It's like, I don't care what the coach is. I don't care who the players are you know they're going to probably be there in some way shape or form so you're looking at coaches but not so much as the program itself you're looking at both but you know it's

it's odd because you know we especially this year we seem to have a really strong year this year for traditional programs north car Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, UCLA, who are probably the four, and Kansas, probably the five greatest programs of all time are all going to be in the top three seed lines when the bracket's revealed. Yeah, those are, okay. And then you throw in other, you know, kind of more new powers like Villanova, who won the national championship last year, who has two national championships in the past 30 years. Florida is another strong team that really isn't a great traditional power that really didn't do anything before 1987. Notre Dame has gotten a lot better from a basketball perspective.

They're going to be the type of team to Q9. Louisville is another strong traditional program that's going to be very strong. Arizona, Oregon kind of goes into the new rich category. So yes, you've kind of got to look at what's there and how their history is because I bring up the subject of Villanova. Going into last year, their head coach Jay Wright was kind of known for being the best dressed guy in college basketball, but, you know, people didn't really ever take them seriously when

it came to actually, you know, making picks. They always kind of picked him to go out, you know, usually in the first week and usually in the round of 32. And they just surprised everybody and, you know, went all the way and won the title. And now, you know, Villanova, it's like, we forget all that past history. So, you know, you can have one really strong year and it really kind of, you know, takes out all that previous history and changes people's minds. All right. Well, listen, we're up against the end of this. Proverbial clock. Yeah, the clock is against us right now. So I don't want to put you on the spot, but I got to put you on the spot.

I need to know what you're thinking and who you're thinking about. Okay. So where are you looking in terms of your bracket? Let's just give me an idea because I don't want you to tell me because I know you can't right now because we're actually taping this long before anything has been announced. So you can't tell me anything right now. But when this will air, our listeners will be hearing this, and we will be one week into the tournament. Yeah, March Madness will be in full swing. March Madness is in full effect right now.

So here's the fun that I want to have with you right now, Chris. fun that I want to have with you right now, Chris. I want you to put on your powers of prestidigitation and look one week into the tournament and tell me who you think is going to be here today as our listeners hear our voices. Who do you think is going to be here? And just to be a little bit of a tease, I'm going to give you a second to think about it because we're going to take a break and when we come back we're going to get uh your particular not predictions but your um how can I put it your shocks and certs yes exactly so we'll be back in a second and Chris will tell us who is in the tournament right now get your pen and paper. Welcome back. I'm Gary O'Reilly.

I'm Jack Nice. And this is Playing With Science. And today we are leaping into the madness that is March. And with us via video call is our own personal bracketologist, Chris Daubertin. So, have I said that right? Yes, Daubertin. Daubertin, yes. Daubertin. Because I'm at said that right? Yes, Dobbertin. Dobbertin, yes. Dobbertin. Because I'm, at the moment,

pronouncing all the names incorrectly, so glad I got that one right. No, you got the other one right. Okay, so shocks and certs. That's what we left our listeners with. Yes. Cliffhanger before the break. Let's put them at ease.

Well, before we get into that, during the break, we had a great little discussion, and you pointed out, Gary, that Coke— Now you've got the mispronunciation. Yes, exactly. Coke and a smile is actually going to win the whole thing. Okay, Duke's coach, Mike K. Coach Mike Krzyzewski.

Salary for 2016? Salary for 2016 is— It has a 7 and a 3 in it, people, and an awful lot of zeros. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. Is $7 million a year? $7.3 million a year.

Is that right, Chris? Yeah, and then you kind of factor in endorsements. Right. Oh, he gets endorsements as well? Yes, he does. He's the star of the team. Am I right? Wouldn't you say that Coach K

is probably the biggest star of that program? Well, yeah, because now they're at the point where Duke used to be known for, you know, having guys staying four years and playing, you know, through their entire eligibility. Well, now they're, you know, churning out one and done players going to the NBA for a year or two. So he's the program. He is the guy who is there constantly. And when you think about it, I'm going to say there's not a lot of coaches, I'm going to say, are worth that kind of money. But when you think of the money that he generates for that school, they're only paying him out of his own money.

They're paying him out of his own pocket. He's making them a crap load more than $7 million a year. So he's realigned the Duke brand. He's reset the corporate thinking within that program. Amazing. Yeah. Amazing. Absolutely. Absolutely. All right. So now. the corporate thinking within that program. Amazing. Yeah, absolutely. All right. So brackets on people. Let's get to the bracket, which is not really a bracket, because for those of you listening, we're going to pull back the curtain here and let you in on a little secret. Today, the tournament is nowhere near even announcing, okay, who's going to be in

the tournament. So it is impossible for me to ask. Mickey Leakes haven't even hacked in yet. Mickey Leakes. Right. They haven't even hacked in yet. We have no idea what's going on. It's impossible for us to ask Chris to give us who might be going against whom. But what I'm asking you to do is use your, I'll say, prescient powers and look into the future from now. prescient powers and look into the future from now. And on March 24th, which is now,

when our listeners are hearing us. So today is March 24th. I want you right now, Chris, I'm sorry, March 22nd. Okay. Today is March 22nd. I want you right now to look into your crystal ball and tell me on March 22nd today, who is still in this tournament, which is a lot more fun than the bracketology because you're just putting your ass on the line now. Well, for starters, I think we're,

we're looking at a potential Villanova, North Carolina national championship rematch. I think that, I think that's a definite possibility. I think the Duke blue Devils, though, are one of those teams that can kind of stand in the way because they're going to be the type of team that can knock off either one and prevent that from happening. We could see a fourth North Carolina Duke game

in the Final Four. I think that's definitely a possibility. I think we're all waiting for Gonzaga to see if they can actually break through and make it to the Final Four out of the West Region, though they're going to have a very tough test in the West Region final against... I can't let you do that, Chris. You got to either commit to Gonzaga right now, because today is March 22nd. Are they here or are they gone? Well, yeah, they're still around. Okay, they're still around. A couple more games to play

before they can break down the Final Four wall. Okay. Which will be coming up over the weekend. I think that you're going to be hearing the names UNC Wilmington, who pushed Duke last year in the first round, and Middle Tennessee, who was one of the better mid-majors in the country.

And I think you're going to be hearing those names, not necessarily to be playing still, but that they will have done damage during the first weekend. Wow, that's a bold pick right there, my friend. I like that. UNC Wilmington. Maybe Tennessee have been on a good run of late. Didn't they have seven in a row wins or seven or eight?

Yes, they have been very good all season, but they're really turning it on now because they don't want the committee to leave them out. Okay. Very good all season, but they're really turning it on now because they don't want the committee to leave them out. Okay. So anybody else you're thinking in terms of like maybe Kentucky or any of these regular like UCLA or any of the big boys you think will still be here? I think Kentucky, Arizona, UCLA. I think that we could potentially have three Pac-12 teams in the final four if things break right over this weekend. All right. Yes. All right.

Yes. I mean, how much of this is down to program? How much of this is down to stellar individuals you think are just going to come through and announce their pre-professional contract? Well, in the case of UCLA, you know, at the beginning of the year, we really didn't know how good the Bruins were going to be,

but then Alonzo Ball comes in as their point guard, completely changes the way that team plays. Yes. And they have just been an absolute revelation, one of the most fun teams to watch all year. Yes. And plus, I'm a big fan of his dad. Maybe not sure everybody else is. All right.

Hey, man, that was fun. Actually, the cool thing about this is. Okay, where's our big shocks? Do we have any big shocks that you think might just appear deeper into the tournament? The big Cinderella. Who's the biggest? Oh, yeah. No, don't give me an ugly sister. Bring me cinders. Who's got the biggest foot to fit that glass slipper? I think the Cincinnati Bearcats, who are going to be a four or five seed, they have the type of team there. They've always been a strong defensive team.

They have enough offense this year to really make some noise. That is the team I think is going to be the biggest shock once we get to the Sweet 16. OK, no, no. Before you go, before we let that sort of segment go, Vermont, am I right, own the longest winning streak pre-March Madness? That's right. Are they going to get the golden ticket? Well, they're already in. They won their conference championship today.

Okay, so let's put them on about a 21-game winning streak. They're going to melt down in the very first round. That's it. So are these guys just paper tigers or could they really sink their teeth deep into a big name? I see. Do you like peanut butter and jelly? Yeah. Because I see a choke

sandwich happening. All right. Okay. Chuck's thoughts. Go ahead, Chris. Tell us. I'm joking. The thing with the Catamounts is that they, you know, had that long winning streak, but they haven't really beaten anybody who would be considered a brand name. Their conference wasn't very good this year. So they were pretty much able to roll through. So it's going to be very interesting.

They're very capable because, I mean, you know, at some point you'd think somebody was going to knock them off because they had the target on their back all year. But the draw that they're going to get, they're probably going to be a 13 seed. Some of the fours that are out there, if they get the wrong draw, it's not going to matter. They're not going to make it. You know, you actually know what you're talking about. I'm just shooting from. That's why.

I'm talking out of my butt, but I'm going to tell you right now. Today is March 22nd when everybody's hearing this show. They are already home. Okay. Okay. Just saying. Anyone listening, anyone listening with an affiliation to Vermont, it's all Chuck. Yep.

Okay. So when we're constructing our bracket, those of us that have never done it before think, we like the number 16. We'll go with that. Waste of time, correct? That's right. It's never happened. And it probably, it doesn't seem like it's ever going to happen in the foreseeable future. Because the way the pods are set up, we have seeds and pods. We're back to gardening again, Chuck. You love gardening. And so the first seed gets drawn with a 16th seed. And that basically is a voir.

Usually a 16th seed, sometimes they have a losing record. Sometimes they're always from a weaker conference. A lot of the times they're a team that didn't win both the regular season and conference tournament title. They just kind of snuck in by getting really hot during the conference tournament, winning three or four games in a row. And usually that number one seed is playing somewhere close to home. So they're going to have a lot of fans behind them. Right. Yeah. Yeah. So what's the lowest seed that's ever walked home with the big deal? The lowest seed that's ever won a national championship. Villanova won as a nine seed. Okay. Yeah. As an eight or a nine seed. So in other words,

exploring it can be done. You don't have to be in the top two seeds, three seeds to have it all to yourselves. No, but it's very, very difficult. Usually it's the top four seeds that have a shot.

All right. And usually the one and the two seeds. But we've only had once since they actually started seeding teams were all four, one seeds made it into the final four. And that was in 2008. Okay. All right. All right. So listen, we got to, we got to wrap. Don't pick all ones. No, no, don't do that. Right. So here's the deal.

We're going to close things out by taking a fan question. And John W from Twitter wants to know this, Chris. He says, what is it about the 5-12 matchup that seems to consistently involve the most upsets? Is there any rhyme or reason for that? There are a couple. Usually the five seed is a team from Power Conference who might have been sitting, they might have lost early in our conference tournament. So maybe they've been sitting for almost a solid week.

And a 12 seed a lot of the times is one of those mid-major conference champions who's better than their record would indicate, better than their profile would indicate that isn't going to be intimidated by that five seed. And they're also a little bit fresher because they won their conference tournament. They haven't been sitting for a week. They've only been sitting for a couple of days. And occasionally, a 12 seed will be one of those teams that plays on Tuesday and Wednesday. So they're really into their rhythm and ready to go. So those are the two things that really, to me,

are why those matchups always kind of stick out as upset picks. It's usually a pretty even matchup, too. That is just amazing that you were able to jump right in and answer that question the way you did. I'm seriously impressed. He's a pro. Fantastic. Gary, you have one.

So we have a question now from Jeff Sostarches. Yes, say that's the right way. Apologies, Jeff, if that's not. I'm mangling the English language. As you probably guessed, it isn't my first, or I don't even have one. Right. Considering that there are upsets in every tournament, Chris, are there any strategies proven to be effective in determining bracket results? In statistics, outliers are typically thrown out as anomalies, but every March outliers make a dramatic impact on the tournament. So do we have secret algorithms? Because it's all numbers,

are there equations? And of course, as Jess says, do we have certain strategies? Well, as somebody who overthinks everything, don't overthink. I usually, when I make my picks, I go with the first instinct, but you know, we talk about, you know, how the bracket is set up and usually in a pool, you know, games become more valuable as you move on around. So usually your first round is only worth one point. So your upsets are only worth one point, or, you know, if you get credit for an upset, maybe it's double. So it's two, but those round of 32 round of 16 games and so on are going to be more important. And that's when the favorites usually win. That's when your, your, your one seed,

your two seeds or three seeds are going to go and take care of things. So oftentimes if you pick all chalk, your bracket is going to do better than somebody who goes crazy picking upsets. So, so don't overthink it, you know, go, go with your gut, but remember that upsets, while they're great, they aren't really going to make all the impact when we get to the Final Four in Glendale at the beginning of April. We're going to go to a break. And while we're in the break, I'm going to keep you on the line, Chris. I need you pretty much. You want a one-to-one, don't you? Yeah, I need you to give me as much information as possible so I can win a million dollars for the rest of my life from Warren Buffett.

This is the goal now for every person who is watching the NCAA tournament. Your goal should be to pick a bracket and make Warren Buffett pay you. That's really what this is about now. Okay, job application in at Berkshire Hathaway prerequisite. What? Yeah, you have to be an employee at Berkshire Hathaway. Okay, you guys give me this information now? Well, no, we did tell you.

Now this is what you tell me this? No, no, no, you tuned out. Now I got to go get a job? Yeah. no, no. You tuned out. Now I gotta go get a job? I gotta get a job now. This sucks. It's one mil a year for life. That's true. That's true. Okay. Hey, listen. I don't mind. You know, listen. I'll show

up and I will just apply for whatever job they have available. You don't have to have a great job. You just have to be on the payroll. I don't care. For a million dollars a year, I will be Warren Buffett's personal butt wiper. I do not care. Okay? I just want this million dollars a year. We're going to find a way to do this. I do hope that job isn't available.

I really do. Hey, Chris, buddy, thanks so much, man. Absolute pleasure. And you know what, sir? Thanks, Gary. Best of luck. Thank you so much. Not that you'll need it. You've got a better chance. Thank you for taking me to school.

It's been a pleasure to be in the front row of this class. You're very, very welcome. Thank you to Chris Dobatine, our bracketologist extraordinaire. We are going to take a break. Up next, we will be exploring the cultural impact of March Madness with Professor Alan Zaremba, author of The Madness of March, bonding and betting with the boys in Vegas. Get a feeling that can only go one way. This is Playing With Science. Don't go away. We are back shortly. Welcome back. I'm Gary O'Reilly. And I'm Chuck Nice. And this, of course, is Playing With Science. And today, we are taking a close look at the seasonal madness of the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

Yes, absolutely. And, of course, you know this is a crazy time of year. So exciting. So many people into it. And to help us explore the cultural impact that this has on our society, we're going to bring on Professor Alan Zaremba, who teaches communication studies at Northeastern University and is the author of The Madness of March,

Bonding and Betting with the Boys in Las Vegas. Alan, how are you? I'm well, thank you. Thanks for joining us. Hey, talk about your book for a second. Can you give us a synopsis of what your book is about? What is the focus? Well, sure. I mean, what happened was in the early 2000s, I had written a book about a hundred things to do before you die. And one of them was to go to Las Vegas during

March Madness to watch the games. People who bet on the games. So I went and it was as advertised, a very exciting experience and a lot of fun. So then I went again. And then about three years later, I said, you know, there's a book in this. It's a book that would describe the characters that sat on Las Vegas to watch March Madness. So the book is really a, you know, it's a biography. It's a description of the characters who traveled to Las Vegas. They're all sports fans.

They fancy themselves as knowledgeable sports bettors, and they go to frolic, really. It's a vacation. It's like going to Disney World for the season. And that's what the book does. It describes the first four days of the tournament, Thursday, Friday, you know, we're in the third day of the first weekend, if you don't count the first, the play-in games.

And I described the characters and how they go through before they begin the tournament. It's like you've got your favorite series, but you've missed the first three or four episodes, or series, and you've binged the whole thing. It's a Game of Thrones marathon with betting. It is. Yeah, it's cool.

All right. Did anyone emerge when you were popping into Vegas for March Madness with a strategy that you thought, whoa, this guy's got something? Actually, what emerged to me was looking at the different kinds of quirky characters. No, I didn't really find anybody that had the key to winning. What I did is I found people who were idiosyncratic. People who pontificated as if they knew what they were talking about, and they really didn't. And then I had people who were screamers, just screaming at the television set.

And so, different people who were very self-effacing talking about, while they're online, waiting to bet, talking about how much money they're losing. And you wonder why they're on the line to bet if all they do is predict that they're going to lose. So, what emerged was characters. Gotcha. Not so much people that had the keys to success, because the people who have the keys to the success are the people who own the casinos. Of course, always. Does your book get into how March Madness became March Madness?

Because, you know, it's been around, but I don't think I remember it as big as it has been for the last, I will say, the last maybe 15 years. It's really out of control. You can't go anywhere and not be touched by March Madness. I think the media had a big, I do talk about this a little bit in the book, the media had a big impact. In the early 80s, ESPN, when it was in its infancy, decided to televise all of the games. And when ESPN televised all of the games, then people who would just look at the newspaper the next day to find out about the scores, now they became more familiar with March Madness.

Right. Gotcha. So that was in the early 80s. Then what happened was more and more people became aware of the games, and then advertisers realized, hmm, they're allowed to go watching the games. So it became part of our culture so that there are March Madness tire sales now. And you can't pick up a newspaper with some liquor store selling, we got the March Madness Johnny Walker Reds sales.

So it's become part of the culture because of the exposure it got. And I'll put that in 1980. The 1979 finals game that featured Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, that was a big one as well. Michigan and Indiana. Yeah. Indiana State. Mm-hmm. Indiana State.

Correct. So it really is, like everything else in America, about marketing and money. everything else in America about marketing and money. That's... Well, when you think about the TV deal, Alan, you may have the better grip on the numbers, but I think CBS and Turner came together to take over the NCAA March Madness. That's right.

And they didn't do like a three-year package. This went across 10 and plus years, and there are billions. I'm not sure about the contract. Oh, no, it's billions. Yeah, and once they dump billion-dollar contracts, multi-billion-dollar contracts, you know they're going to want their money back.

Well, yeah, absolutely. They're getting their money because the people who watch it, there's so many people who are interested in it. You've got people who don't know basketball from a pumpkin that are filling out brackets and they're betting on games. They're into this,

and they couldn't tell you how to keep score in a basketball game, but yet they're rooting for a team. Or somebody, one year I went to Philadelphia to watch one of the first doubleheaders, and there were people there from Creighton. And, again, I didn't have a sense that they understood how the game was played. But they're cheering like madmen for their school. So is that is that part of it the fact that it's kind of like you know it's a it's a colors thing it's

your school so you know everybody has some kind of um connection to it you know whether the school is in your community or you went to the school your alum or you know someone who's there or it's a rival of of your school i mean mean, is that a big part of it? I think it is, and I'll add that I think you're absolutely right, that you can say that when Albany, that's my alma mater, when they went to the tournament for the first time, it was a madhouse in Albany. It was as if people had discovered gold.

They were so excited about the fact that some school that they knew was going to the tournament. But I'll add to this is that it wouldn't be the same if they didn't think that that game was going to be broadcast on television. It is the fact that every single game is on television and that Albany or a small school like Kent State would get exposure on television, I don't think it would have that much of a grip. That you had people who were really excited about this because the same way when they scan the audience at a ballgame and someone sees their picture and they get excited, hey, I'm excited. Albany's on TV.

Kent State's on TV. This is my school. So that's a big part of it as well. Okay, Alan, just so as to clarify the numbers, NCAA in 2010 signed a 14-1-4 year deal with Turner and CBS for, hold on to your seats, people, $10.8 billion U.S. dollars. Ow. And they're going to get their money back. Yeah. They're going to get seats, people. $10.8 billion U.S. dollars. Ow. And they're going to get their money back. Yeah.

They're going to get their money back. Okay, so you're a man that's sort of inhabited the Vegas scene during March Madness. Any idea what the dollar figure for gambling is over March Madness? I don't know, but I did interview three of the sports book managers and they were telling me that this is the busy... Super Bowl is a little bit akin to it in terms of the amount of money

that's being spent, but they said this is where they make their money. I can remember going in the back room of the Venetian and speaking to the person who was in the sports book and watching what was going on

and boy, they were taking in some shekels. They were making some money on that thing. Can you imagine someone in a casino, their whole mission statement is we make money, says about March Madness, this is when we make money. Right, yeah. This is our payday. That lets you know.

I remember there was a guy who was trying to predict who was going to win, and he said something like, oh, this team can't miss. And I thought, those two words, can't miss, built the entire city of Las Vegas. People think they could lose. That's how they make their money. Yeah, it's also what sunk the Titanic.

So that guy, I'm sure he's headed for great success. I'm sure he's headed for great success. Talk about, I read somewhere that productivity suffers more during March Madness than any other time of the year. Well, I've heard the same thing. And the idea is that a lot of people during the day, on Thursday and Friday, instead of work, will watch the games. And now, with the Internet, it's relatively easy to excel. So you've got a lot of people who, instead of doing whatever they're supposed to be doing, are looking to see if their brackets got busted

while they're allegedly, you know, toiling away for the company. And even the days before, you have people filling out their brackets, and you have companies who have, you know, within your own organization, somebody might pass around some kind of game where you could make a few shekels if you guessed the team correctly.

Yeah, I'm actually in one, and I gotta be honest, I couldn't pick a bracket if you actually gave me tomorrow's newspaper. I still would get it wrong. Okay. But you do it just because everybody's in it and you're like, hey, what the hell?

Maybe I'll get lucky. Because it seems to me. Now, do you fill out a bracket? Because it seems to me like nobody fills out a bracket and gets it right. If you don't know what you're doing, you've got as good a chance as someone who doesn't know what they're doing. Exactly. Well, with the brackets, you're doing, you've got as good a chance as someone who doesn't know what they're doing. Exactly. With the brackets, you're not betting against the spread. You're betting who's

going to win the game. It's a little bit easier, but still, there are upsets galore. Middle Tennessee State the last two years has upset a team in the first round. Take a team like Miami, which really played well during the year and it got shellacked last night.

So you've got against a Michigan State team that didn't have a good season. So it's very difficult to predict who's going to win, and therefore your brackets are busted right from the beginning. Yeah, exactly. Shellack. There's not enough shellacking going on. For me, that sounds like the best term ever. That team got shellacked.

Okay, Alan, let me, one question from me here. Apart from the obvious negative of, you know, what people lose or can lose an awful lot of money or just some money, do you see any sort of social positive that comes out of March Madness? Oh, yeah, I do. It's exciting.

I think, how do you spend your time? How do you spend your emotional energy? I think that if you are excited about college basketball and excited about sports, this is a terrific tournament. You win and you advance. I don't think, I don't want to

seem as if I'm painting this negatively at all. Yes, you can lose money, but it's a fun time. You know, there are people who collect coins, people who collect stamps. The people who go to Las Vegas and are into March Madness, they love sports. They're going out to Las Vegas because this is fun for them. And it's decent fun. I mean, unless you're betting your rent. It's fun. I mean, unless you're betting your rent. Right, yeah. It's fun.

Yeah. Speaking of money, and I don't want to get too deep in this because this is not what the show is about, but I'm just interested since you're definitely a college basketball fan. When you talk about $10.8 billion, do you believe that there should be some compensation for college basketball players with this type of money being bandied about? You know, it's an important question, and I think there are, not to sound critical, although I'm going to be critical, there are arguments on both sides. The argument on one side is the athletes are getting paid. The argument on one side is the athletes are getting paid. They're getting paid a full tuition and full ride to get an education, which can be up to $250,000.

So if you're a scholarship athlete, and most of these players are scholarship athletes, you're getting a free college education. You're going to come out of school with no loans. Plus, you're likely to get some tutoring help by the athletic department. There is some money there. On the other side, the schools are making more than you are. I come down on the side of

no, you don't want to. It's problematic already that the student-athletes are spending more time being athletes than students. And I think if you start paying them, then there's no real reason for the students to be more student than athlete. So I see both sides, but I think that if you get $250,000, a free education, that's something that's nothing to sneeze at. Yeah, you're right. And I's something that's nothing to sneeze at. Yeah, and you're right. And I think that that's what it should be.

I mean, personally, I believe that in terms of payment, that instead of making it a farm league for the NBA, which it is, by the way, and it is, and the farm league for hockey and the farm league for baseball, these guys get paid for the most part. But what I think should happen is once you go to the school and you put in a certain amount of tenure, you should be able to come back to that school until you get a degree. Like that school should have to carry you until you get a degree.

And that's the way I think that because in education, you can't put a price on. See, the thing is, out of March Madness and the money that comes back into the NCAA, funds not just, this is what I believe is what I've read, funds not just the basketball programs throughout the colleges, but a number of other sports programs. But then you see- Oh, that works. Oh, yes. It's the NCAA. So it's all their sports. So then you balance that off against stories such as one college player who got drafted to the NBA

who said, I didn't have enough money to buy food while I was at college. So there's always something, one on the other side of the line, which you can argue a case for. But I think in the end, they've got to remain amateur as much as that may ethically upset a lot of people. Yeah, it's a difficult, sticky situation, but I just wanted to get your opinion on it because you're very passionate about college basketball. I was just interested. But you know what?

We're almost out of time, but I can't let you go. Before. Before we ask you, who do you have taking it all? I had Oregon. I think they're a very good team. I know that they're missing a big guy, but I think they'll do well. And don't pay

any attention to me because I'm never right. When I filled in my brackets with Oregon, I thought they have the team. I'm not convinced that Duke is what everybody says they are. UNC, I saw UNC play earlier this year against Miami, and they got trounced by Miami, who got trounced last night.

So I don't think UNC or Duke, and don't pay any attention to me, because I thought that Jimmy Carter was going to be Ronald Reagan in 1980. So I'm not the kind of guy that you want to take back on the basis of my March Madness and the history lesson. Yeah, well, and guess what? You're in good company because I actually picked the Lakers. So that'll show you how much I know. Alan, thank you so much for your time.

It's been a pleasure to have you on board. Thank you to Professor Alan Zaremba and Chris Dobotin for his insight into bracketology. Yeah, who knew this whole thing was so, I mean, Chris Dobotin, he's very strategic. I mean, it's a real deal. This guy, it's his life, which is so weird, you know. And even he says, I don't know, I'm going to get close to a Sweet 16, let alone an Elite 8. Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah. I got to tell you, the March Madness is only going to get close to a Sweet 16, let alone an Elite 8. Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah.

I got to tell you, March Madness is only going to get bigger and bigger. That's the one thing that I like. And I shall continue to waste money every year on a bracket. So, you know, that's what I've learned. I'm in good company when I'm wasting my money picking teams for March Madness. Okay. If you don't see it as wasting money, but bringing your office, your family, your friends together, then maybe there's not so much madness in March. Yeah, I don't like any of those people, though. That's the problem.

And I'm Chuck Nice. And this has been Playing With Science. And really, we do like people, honestly, and I'll speak to him afterwards. See you soon.