StarTalk Radio - #ICYMI: March Madness 2018: Bracketology

Episode Date: March 15, 2018

In case you missed this episode on the Playing with Science channel… Can you sense that? It’s the madness descending upon us once more. It’s time for the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball tournament, a.k.a. March Madness. Join in as we gear up for the games with hosts Gary O’Reilly, Chuck Nice, and bracketologist Chris Dobbertean. (Updated for 2018!)Don’t miss an episode of Playing with Science. Please subscribe to our channels on:Apple Podcasts: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/playing-with-science/id1198280360TuneIn: tunein.com/playingwithscienceGooglePlay Music: https://play.google.com/music/listen?u=0#/ps/Iimke5bwpoh2nb25swchmw6kzjqSoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/startalk_playing-with-scienceStitcher: http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/startalk/playing-with-scienceNOTE: StarTalk All-Access subscribers can watch or listen to this entire episode commercial-free here: https://www.startalkradio.net/all-access/march-madness-2018/Credit: NCAA. Subscribe to SiriusXM Podcasts+ on Apple Podcasts to listen to new episodes ad-free and a whole week early.

I'm Gary O'Reilly And I'm Chuck Nice And this is Playing With Science Today I think we'll go just a little crazy And join in with March Madness And why not? It's the sports event that will turn your office upside down Lower national productivity

And make someone an awful lot of money. Just maybe not those who do their brackets. That's so true. So now you know March Madness is already in full swing. We're a little late to the party, but that makes it even more exciting because for three weeks, America just eats, drinks, and sleeps college basketball, cheering on the Giant Killers, giving it up for the Cinderella's, and hoping that their college gets that fairytale ending and is crowned NCAA basketball champions. Yeah, right.

But none of this can take place, so it seems, without a bracket. And to help us through to our final four is bracketologist Chris Dobbertine from Blogging the Bracket. And keep an ear open as we just might be airing one of your questions throughout the show. I'm new to this. I'm new to the whole thing. I knew it existed, but I've never been around while it's happening. And I get it.

I get the whole thing, the buildup, how colleges structure schedules so they can set themselves up to a better run-in to get invited to the big show. Absolutely. And all the buzz, bubble teams, Cinderella's, those, if you don't get invited, tough. You're not going. There's no appeals committee on this one. And it's all about the underdogs.

I mean, everybody loves to see the upsets, you know, unless that busts your bracket. But people just love this. You cannot walk by any bar in America during this time of year and not see college basketball up on the screen. Turn the TV on and not find a commercial for March Madness something or other. Yeah, absolutely. It is. I actually just did a Buffalo Wild Wings March Madness commercial.

Look for it. Anyone else feeling hungry? It's never a good day to be a chicken yeah i probably that's funny and i probably shouldn't have said that because it's not like they they already paid me so why am i plugging them you like buffalo wings uh i do as you go that's why you said that's there you go right okay time to bring on our first guest chris dobertine welcome chris welcome to playing with science hey chuck, Gary. Thanks for having me. So before we go any further, let's let the people know that you are the resident bracketologist and editor of Blogging the Bracket.

You also cover college basketball and bracket breakdowns and predictions for SBNation.com. And I have actually seen you in action. We did a live bracket show last year. seeing you in action. We did a live bracket show last year. And let me just say for everybody watching and listening, this is not like BS for Chris. This is like a real thing. This is your life. Am I right? Yeah. Yeah. During from January to March, this is pretty much it. Yeah, man. And I watched you go through a painstaking process of putting together a bracket. And I got to be honest, it was not fun to watch. You guys are putting I mean, you guys are really working when you do this. I'm a pro. This is a school day. Right.

I'm in the front row of the class because bracketology is a new part of the English language for me. I do believe I've been recently informed it is in the Oxford English Dictionary, so I am not about to criticize that in any way. But I get it. But I have yet to experience it. So let's do that. I'm really looking forward to this because there's a bubble team. Right, exactly. I's do that. I'm really looking forward to this because there's a bubble team. Right.

Exactly. I understand. Yeah. But Elite Eight? Yes. Why isn't it Super Eight? Don't worry. Moving on.

Sweet 16. So we've got these hard, I've got a new language to learn as well as everything else. So Chris, please bring it on. Let's start with, first of all, just explaining what the bracket is, bracketology is, and how you go about putting together a bracket well every march the the ncaa which you know runs college sports in this country puts on a 68 team championship it used to be 64 then it went to 65 now it's 68 all for for basically for money reasons yep and okay you do is, you know,

the 68 teams, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conferences. They win a conference tournament, which is usually played this week right before Selection Sunday, which this year is March the 12th. And the other 36 teams, there is a selection committee, which is the Division I Men's Basketball Committee. And they're meeting in New York right now as we're speaking, and they actually pick those 36 teams and they take those 36 teams and the 32 automatic bids, they rank those teams from 1 to 68 and place them into four regions which have somewhere between 16 and 17 to 18 teams, because you might

have two opening round games in the same region, but the goal is they have a first four on Tuesday and Wednesday of right after Selection Sunday. Those four winners move on to the main bracket of 64. We have a nice solid bracket, four regions of 16 teams each. The winner of each of those regions moves on to the final four, and those two semifinal winners play off to win the national championship. Wow. Okay.

Good job, man. Considering that was a great breakdown, Chris. Even I understood that. So it was good. All right. So you just explained the process. That is the process, the selection process, the 32 automatic teams, the 36 selection committee teams, and then how they're put together to create the field of 64.

Okay, now we've got this nice round field of 64, okay? And it all starts out with everybody on the outsides of the brackets, okay? How do you go about now moving inwards until you get to 16, Elite 8, 4, 2 champion. Even before we get there, aren't there some variables? Because you said 32 teams win their championships. The rest have to be invited. And if you don't get invited, don't complain. It's tough.

Am I about right? So what are the criteria that you get selected on and invited? Well, the most important things, and this is something that's a little bit different this year because we had a new twist to the process this year, where a month ago, February 12th, the selection committee actually had for the first time a special on CBS where they announced their top 16 teams at that point. Granted, those could change over the final month. But for those of us who do bracketology, it gave us a nice idea of kind of what they're looking for. And this year, it seems like quality wins, which are wins against teams that fit within the metric they use,

which is called the ratings percentage index, the RPI, which is an old metric. It's been used for almost 30 years at this point. It's not basketball specific. Basketball people generally hate it. But it does a relatively recent job, decent job of telling you what teams have done, you know, into the season up to that point. It's not predictive, but it tells you, you know, this team, you know, has the first best, you know, schedule and performance, second best and so on. performance, second best, and so on. So they released those 16 teams. So we have a good idea now that quality wins, which are wins against the top 50 teams in that RPI metric, are kind of what the committee seems to want the most this year. So when making those selections and trying to figure out what those 36 invited teams are going to be, some of them are very obvious because

their record is good enough, they beat enough good teams, but as you get towards the end, you get towards the cut line between 36 and 37, it gets a little more muddy. You're wondering, how do these teams play away from home? Because playing road games and neutral courts, it's a tougher environment and if you can win games in those environments, you're generally thought of as being a stronger team. How did you do in November and December? Because in college basketball, the season's really in two parts. In November and December, it's games that you have to schedule yourself.

And then from January to March, your conference schedule those games. OK, one second, Chris. What if you're a really good team? You don't win your championship, but you're in a weak conference? That's where the controversy usually comes in. Oh, good. I found controversy. Lovely. Yes. Unlike me to find the bad bit. And this always comes up because if you're in a weaker conference, a lot of the times if you're a stronger team and if you're historically strong, say like Wichita State out of the Missouri Valley Conference, power conference teams, they don't want to play you.

They don't want to play you at home. They don't want to go visit. They certainly don't want to go visit you. Oh, so they're sneaky with the schedule. Yes. Rascals. They are very sneaky with the scheduling. So this is the problem and this is always the controversy and the thing that we try to balance. Now, the selection committee, the membership changes every year. They usually lose three or four people because they kind of rotate on and off. So you have to kind of figure out what their backgrounds are and what schools they've worked for and where they've worked for so you can kind of figure out their biases. And this year, we kind of suspect that the biases are going to be in favor of the power conference teams and not so much the mid-major teams.

So they're going to be out of luck. So there's an element of telepathy involved and mind reading. Yeah. This is real detective work, Chris. When I was in grad school, I studied Supreme Court decisions and, you know, trying to figure out, you know, how justices would vote on cases based on their background, their political belief. Right. You know, the other briefs that they've the other dissents that they may have written or I got you. So exactly. And it's very similar to that.

It's more profitable to be a bracketologist than it is to go into law. I wouldn't say that. You're like, let's not get crazy. There are some mad numbers in and around March Madness. you're like, let's not get crazy. There are some mad numbers in and around March Madness. But you carry on with the bracketology because this is my lesson for today. Okay. So now let's say you're putting together your bracket.

What do you want to look for and how do you want to go about that? For those who are interested, first of all, there's a lot of people who are putting together brackets because it's like an office thing. Everybody wants to, everybody's putting their $5 in or their $10 in and they're picking their teams. And a lot of people like me, you just pick the colors that you like the most, the team with the best colors,

or hey, look, I know that this team, their cheerleaders, awesome. I want to see them on CBS at some point. So those are the teams I'm picking. But if you're serious about it, how would you go about it? Before you answer that, if we've got a chance, we're going to go around to Berkshire Hathaway and get a job because I think you know where I'm going with this. Warren Buffett runs a bracket. Yes, he does. Because he loves sports and probabilities. Now, if you predict the first 32, you get $100,000.

What? No, no, no, this isn't the kicker. The kicker is you predict the sweet 16, you get a million dollars each year for the rest of your life. What? That could cost Warren about 60 call. But then again, I think he could afford it. Yeah, $60 million.

I think anyone who's got a chance, go around there now, get a job. I'm pretty sure there's a pair of mom jeans sitting in Warren Buffett's dryer right now with $60 million in it. I'm pretty sure about that. Chris. That's the one. My man. There you go. This is what I'm trying to say to you.

Can we please put together a plan with Science Bracket that will make us a cool million dollars a year for the rest of our lives? All we have to do is get down to the sweet 16. That's it. Chris, you can do this. You think you can do it, but this event is just known for surprises every

year. But that being said, there are some things that, especially if you want to do a little bit of research, can really help you out. Okay, go ahead. The first thing for me is that I always look for, especially when I'm looking for upsets, I look for teams that are lower-seeded teams, especially 11, 12, 13-seed type teams that have good senior leadership. They have previous tournament experience. Maybe they were there the year before and pushed a team really hard late and they're getting a second chance. Good guards. You want to have good guards because they do a good job of distributing the ball and just

taking care of things and keeping the offense ticking. That's another thing you want. A team that can shoot the three-pointer, the three-point shot is the great equalizer in college basketball, almost to the point where it's gotten crazy. But that's another thing you want to watch. So those are kind of some factors in terms of teams you want to keep an eye on. Oh, okay.

So that's very simple to follow. Just to recap, lower uh lower seeds 13 around that uh good leadership which means you're looking for some seniors that have been there and they're experienced uh previous tournament experience and that means that they've been there before so they don't have the the big butterflies and the jitters and when they get in front of the big crowd they're not going to freak out and where's my mommy um And then good guards because you've got to be able to run the offense. And good guards also give you clock management as well, which is very important. And then three-point shooters, which is something I didn't ever consider.

But I guess you're right. The whole game has changed that way. I would add, from my own personal experience of sport injuries potential injury injury history and current injuries to key players and then your disciplinary record you might have a player with a talent off the chart but he's not going to last 20 minutes on court because he's a bad boy oh really and then i'm gonna i'm gonna go and tug the bad boy's ear every time i walk past him and he's going to lose it. There's a penalty and he's out of the game before you know it.

So that stuff, that's real drilling down from a scouting report. You must have files inches thick on each team. Well, that kind of goes into the next thing where you want to take a look at kind of how a team has been playing lately. You want to look at their schedule. You know, you want to look at those teams that happened to win both their conference regular season and tournament championships, the ones that got the automatic bids, but they also did the work during the regular season because those have been tested consistently. They're strong. They're not going to get flustered. That's one factor you want to look

at. If you really want to dig deep, you want to look at how teams play based on different tip-off times. And I say this based on the performance of my alma mater, the University of Florida, which plays really well at night. So weeknight games, they usually do pretty well. But if they're scheduled for a Saturday afternoon noon tip, not quite so good. Really? So if you really want to dig down, you can do that. And another factor you want to keep in mind, you want to look at where the games are being played in the tournament.

Travel times. Yep. Travel times, you want to be careful of teams that are from the West Coast going East, having to play a morning game. Right. Also, you want to think of geographical considerations because of crowds. For example, two years ago, Providence played Dayton in Columbus, Ohio. And one of my friends yelled at me on Twitter saying, if I would have known this game was in Columbus, I wouldn't have taken Providence. I would have taken Dayton. And that's the type of little things you want to keep in mind because teams might get unexpected home court advantages. Yeah, right.

The committee draws up the bracket. Yeah, because you're right. The geography will determine who has the home court advantage because more of your fans will show up. And the travel time thing, you know, that's that kind of is a factor in all sports. When you think about all sports, they all athletes who haven't had so much travel hardening. You know, if you're if you're if you're in the majors, you know, you live out of your suitcase. Yeah, but I'm saying even in the majors, they say like if a West Coast team is going east. Oh, there's always a problem.

They're like, hey, don't even count this. If you're a West Coast team and you're a really decent matchup, but you're coming east to play, let's say, the Patriots. They're like, you're going to get murdered. Only because of the time difference. Traveling east is always the hardest one. Now, going to your old alma mater, Florida, my guess is biorhythms. So they're geared up to playing a night, an evening tip-off, right? That's right.

Lunchtime, they're having pregame nap. They're having a little bit of a nap. So when it comes to an early tip- on during the day, their biorhythm saying sleepy time. Okay. Well, they deserve to lose if they got to take an afternoon nap. What the hell is this? This ain't standard practice. Standard practice. You will go, you'll have a little lie down and go again. Yeah. All right. Do you get milk and cookies too? No. But that is a very important thing to think of because this is one of the only, you know, events in the American calendar where games pretty much go from noon to midnight. Right.

You know, on weekdays, you know, Thursday and Friday of the first and second rounds, you know, that weekend, it's all basketball from 12 to midnight, you know, for four straight days. So this isn't a guy who just says, you know what, I'm going with the color of the uniform. This is scientific. Well, no, I mean, I know what Chris does, so I'm totally fine with him. Like I said, I'm front row of the class here. I'm at school. So I'm seeing a scientific process here from how you construct your bracket. When we're constructing our bracket, those of us that have never done it before think,

we like the number 16. We'll go with that. Waste of time, correct? That's right. It's never happened. And it probably, it doesn't seem like it's ever going to happen in the foreseeable future. Because the way the pods are set up, we have seeds and pods. We're back to gardening again, Chuck. You love gardening. And so the first seed gets drawn with a 16th seed and that basically is of what usually a 16 team. Sometimes they have a losing record. Sometimes they're, they're from, they're always from a weaker conference, right? A lot of the times there are a team that didn't win both the regular season and

conference tournament title. They just kind of snuck in by getting really hot during the conference tournament, winning three or four games in a row. And usually that number one seed is playing somewhere close to home, so they're going to have a lot of fans behind them. Right. Gotcha. Yeah. What's the lowest seed that's ever walked home with the big deal? The lowest seed that's ever won a national championship,

Villanova won as a nine seed. Okay. Yeah. As an eight or a nine seed. So in other words, I'm exploring it can be done. You don't have to be in the top two seeds, three seeds to have it all to yourselves. No, but it's very, very difficult. Usually it's the top four seeds that have a shot and usually the one and the two seeds.

But we've only had one since they actually started seeding teams where all four one seeds made it to the final four that was in 2008 okay so here's the deal we're going to uh close things out by taking a fan question and uh john w from twitter wants to know this chris he says what is it about the 512 matchup that seems to consistently involve the most upsets? Is there any rhyme or reason for that? There are a couple. Usually the five seed is a team from power conference who might have been sitting. They might have lost early in our conference tournament. So maybe they've been sitting for almost a solid week.

And a 12 seed a lot of the times is one of those mid-major conference champions who's better than their record would indicate, better than their profile would indicate, that isn't going to be intimidated by that five seed. And they're also a little bit fresher because they won their conference tournament. You know, they haven't been sitting for, you know, a week. They've only been sitting for a couple of days. And occasionally, a 12 seed will be one of those teams that plays on Tuesday and Wednesday. So they're really, you know, into their rhythm and, and, and ready to go. Wow. So, so those are the two things that really, to me kind of are why those matchups always kind of stick out as upset picks. It's usually a pretty even matchup too. That is just amazing that you were able to jump right in and answer that question the way you did. I'm seriously impressed. Fantastic. So we have a question now from Jeff

Sostarches. Yes, say that's the right way. Apologies, Jeff, if that's not. I'm mangling the English language. As you probably guessed, it isn't my first or I don't even have one. Right. Considering that there are upsets in every tournament, Chris, are there any strategies proven to be effective in determining bracket results? In statistics, outliers are typically thrown out as anomalies, but every March outliers make a dramatic impact on the tournament. So do we have secret algorithms? Because it's all numbers, are there equations? And of course, as Jess says, do we have certain strategies? games become more valuable as you move on around. So usually your first rounds are only worth one point. So your upsets are only worth one point. Or you know if you get credit for an upset maybe it's double so it's two. But those round of 32

round of 16 games and so on are going to be more important and that's when the favorites usually win. That's when your one seed, your two seeds, your three seeds are going to go and take care of things. So oftentimes if you pick all chalk, your bracket is going to do better than somebody who goes crazy picking upsets. So don't overthink it. Go with your gut, but remember that upsets, while they're great, they aren't really going to make all the impact when we get to the final four in Glendale at the beginning of

April. Sweet. Well, listen, we've got to wrap this up. I tell you what, here's what we're going to do. We're going to go to a break. And while we're in the break, I'm going to keep you on the line, Chris. I need you pretty much... You're going to one-to-one, don't you? Yeah. I need you to give me as much information as possible so I can win a million dollars for the rest of my life from Warren Buffett. This is the goal now for every person who is watching the NCAA tournament. Your goal should be to pick a bracket and make Warren Buffett pay you. That's really what this is about now.

Okay, job application in at Berkshire Hathaway prerequisite. What? Yeah, you have to be an in at Berkshire Hathaway prerequisite. What? Yeah, you have to be an employee at Berkshire Hathaway. Okay. You guys give me this information now? Well, no, we did tell you.

Now this is what you tell me this? No, no, no. You tuned out. Now I got to go get a job? Yeah. I got to get a job now. This sucks. It's one mil a year.

Yeah, that's true. That's true. Okay. Hey, listen, I don't mind. You know, listen, I'll show up and I will just apply for whatever job they have available. You don't have to have a great job. You just have to be on the payroll.

I don't care. For a million dollars a year, I will be Warren Buffett's personal butt wiper. I do not care. Okay. I just want this million dollars a year. We're going to find a way to do this. All right. I do hope that job isn't available.

I really do. Hey, Chris, buddy, thanks so much, man. Absolute pleasure. And you know what, sir? Thanks, Gary. Best of luck. Thank you so much. Not that you'll need it.

You've got a better chance. Thank you for taking me to school. It's been a pleasure to be in the front row of this class. You're very, very welcome. Thank you to Chris Dobatine, our bracketologist extraordinaire. I got to tell you, March Madness is only going to get bigger and bigger. That's the one thing that I like. And I shall continue to waste money every year on a bracket.

So, you know, that's what I've learned. I'm in good company when I'm wasting my money picking teams for March Madness. Okay, if you don't see it as wasting money, but bringing your office, your family, your friends together, then maybe there's not so much madness in March. Yeah, I don't like any of those people, though. That's the problem. And I'm Chuck Nice.

And this has been Playing With Science. And really, we do like people, honestly, and I'll speak to him afterwards. See you soon. we do like people honestly and i'll speak to him afterwards see you soon so playing with science fans uh thank you first of all for sticking around and checking out our little extension of our march madness show you just finished listening to the show from last year where we had of course gary o'reilly who is conspicuously absent from this extension because Gary is in the UK. He was supposed to be here.

His plane was grounded because of the big snowstorm that we had here on the East Coast, and he was unable to join us. And so we say hello to Gary, and we we miss you and we wish you were here. But what we do have from last year is Chris Daubertine, who is the curator of bloggingthebracket.com and works for SB Nation. And as I said, is I don't care. I see these guys from ESPN and I see these dudes on CBS. And Chris, no smoke blowing at all. Man, you are probably the most knowledgeable bracketologist that I know. So welcome. Thanks for having me once again, Chuck. Last year, we were not able to talk about the brackets in any detail because we were speaking before Selection Sunday. But right now, you and I, even though this will be airing during the tournament, probably the very beginning of the tournament, you and I are speaking on Selection Sunday evening. And so they have just announced the teams.

And I'm really excited to hear what you have to say about this year's bracket. Before we get into your picks and start picking apart the bracket itself, I really want to know from you something about this selection process. Already, there's some controversy about the teams that have been selected because from what I understand, they did some tweaking, not real changes, but some tweaking to the way that they choose the teams. Can you talk to me about that? And while you're at it, can you tell me what RPI means and what quadrants are and all this stuff that I'm hearing that I have no idea what's going on? Let's kind of start at the beginning because all these things that you ask about do really kind of feed into each other. Okay.

Previously, what happened was all wins that a team picked up during the course of a season were considered the same. So if you beat a team that was ranked in the top 50, that was considered a group one win. Then teams 51 through 100 were another group. And then 101 through 200 were another. And then 201 to 350 were yet another. And it didn't matter if you beat that team on your own home floor, on the road in their building, or some neutral site event in November or December during a conference tournament. That didn't matter. This year, they decided to tweak a few things. They decided to redefine quality wins and create these quadrants. Now, the quadrants were always there, but now the quadrants exist to give you more credit for winning on the road in another

team's building and less credit for winning at home. Let's take that first group before, that group one. It used to be just top 50 wins period. Now, neutral site games, they're still one through 50. Those teams still fall in there. But if you win a game on the road against anybody in the top 75, that now falls into that bucket. But on the flip side, only your home wins against the top 30 teams do. So you're not getting as much credit for winning at home. Okay. So what they're doing is it's kind of like in figure skating or diving where you have this little factor called a degree of difficulty. So that if you're doing a two and a half twist with the pike, right, you're, you get scored higher than just doing a jackknife because they're like, yo, this is a much more

difficult move. So we're going to give you more credit. So they're saying that it's more difficult to win against a good team on their own turf. So if you do that, then we're going to give you more credit. That's exactly what it is. That's a great way to put it, you know, that degree of difficulty. And he brought up the RPI, which is the ratings percentage index. And this kind of goes, ties into another thing that changed this year. Okay. The RPI is a very basic calculation and it's actually used by the NCAA, not just in basketball, but in various guises through pretty much every sport they do. Baseball, softball, any team sport, they have an RPI or something like it. And that's because

it's a very basic formula that calculates your own winning percentage, the winning percentage of the teams that you play, and then those teams' opponents' winning percentage. There's another factor that goes into it. So you can see that there's not really anything really basketball specific about it. It doesn't really tell you how good a team is on offense or on defense or how efficient they are. So they decided this year that they were going to incorporate several other metrics, including broken into two categories. The RPI is called results-based metrics because it is based on

what you do during the season. It looks only at the past. There are three other metrics they're using which are predictive. Most prominent of these is Ken Pomeroy's ratings, KenPom.com, Jeff Sagarin's rating, and ESPN's BPI. These try to predict how a team is going to perform based on how efficient they are on offense, on defense, how often they turn the ball over. They factor in things like injuries and availability of players and things like that. So they try to get those kind of involved as well.

Based on what I've seen of the bracket so far, it doesn't look like those predictive metrics were really used quite as much as the result-based ones were, which was one of the controversial things as I was kind of running up my recap, because I felt like I was going into the season expecting all these changes. And things pretty much stayed the same, and my performance from year on year has remained consistent, even with these updates. Interesting. Interesting. So basically what they, what they had was kind of like these predictive analytics that were not, instead of an algorithm, they're using some other criteria to put in place these predictive analytics. And then they decided we're not going to use them. Yeah. That's what I'm thinking at first glance. I'm going to take some time during the next couple of days and try to figure out how Ken Palm in particular

was used. Because like I said, that's really kind of the gold standard, the one people that kind of cite the most when they talk about college basketball. To see how that was kind of used if it was at all, and then kind of make a decision. For now, I'm just kind of making a quick assumption based on, you know, the two hours I've had without, you know, without having to deal with these things and trying to look at what actually is there. Yeah. But so what we can, what we do know is kind of like this caliber of wins things where that definitely went into play. You know, that's a, that's a big factor, caliber Caliber of wins and what I call the degree of

difficulty. So that's a new thing. And you think it's a good thing? I mean, does it look like it's doing something good? I think it is. I think that one factor the committee used to look at years ago, they've gotten rid of it over really the past four or five years, was your performance late in the season. They used to have a metric that checked your record based on the last 10 or last 12 games you played and this is where a lot of the controversy about the teams that got selected kind of came in because two of the most controversial or three of the most controversial really were alabama out of the sec arizona state out of the pac-12 and oklahoma out of the big 12 all of whom just cratered during the last month of the season.

Right. Arizona state was even worse. Arizona state started out 12 and O I had them as a number one seat in the first bracket that I did back in January. They won eight games the rest of the season. They finished 20 and 11 and they got in. So, and Oh man, really? Okay. Yeah. I mean, Alabama lost five in a row before they won two games in the sec tournament and it turns out they probably didn't even win those two games based on where they were placed in the bracket wow so arizona is a 500 team and they're basically they're on par with in their own par with everybody else in terms of its first round you you you got your chance to do just like everybody else.

Well, Arizona State, and that's a big difference because Arizona is, and we'll talk about them in a bit, they're a scary, scary, scary team with NBA-level talent. But Arizona State, they're going to have to play that extra game in Dayton coming up on Tuesday or Wednesday. Oh, okay. So they've got to play the extra game. All right.

So they're playing the extra game. So they're not, they have to still earn their place. Okay, cool. Cool. Is it possible that a team with a losing record could make the tournament? And has that ever happened? Oh, it happens. It happens quite frequently. It actually happened this year, but it's only ever happens when it's a team with an automatic bid. For example, one of the games on Wednesday night is going to feature 15 and 19 Texas Southern who played every single non-conference game on the road. They do this so they can make money for the athletic department. They're playing bigger programs that give them a nice paycheck. Their coach, Mike Davis,

used to coach in Indiana. He basically treats them like he uses that money in part to treat his players to coach in Indiana, he basically treats them like he uses that money in part to treat his players to staying in nice hotels, eating in nice restaurants before games. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. He wants to treat them like professionals. I want to play for this guy. Yeah. While they go out and get their rear ends handed to them, but they've had their chances a couple of years ago. They won at Michigan state, for example, which is a very difficult team, especially for a team of that level to do. They're playing North Carolina Central. And honestly, you know, Texas Southern's out of the SWAC.

North Carolina Central's out of the MEAC. This is the first time I can remember in all these years of doing this where they put the two HBCU teams against each other in the first round. I think it happened way back in the 80s, in the 90s at one point, but at a slightly different format. But this is the first time I remember them actually ever doing that. Wow. Okay. So the team with a losing record is going to have, they got an automatic bid, right?

And so they're basically going to the tournament and they're going to have like a wonderful meal with their coach and stay at a nice hotel. And yeah, and that's and that's why they're there. I'm actually going to root for them more than anybody else, which I don't think is going to make a difference because they're going to lose in the first round. Right. Well, well, they still they still have that first game against North Carolinaolina central who also played in that round last year okay the thing about that is the good thing about playing in that early game is you know you get you get the credit for it financially so the ncaa will send you checks for the next six years because you're playing in that game which is a great boost to your conference and their collective financial coffers so by the, I am just now for the first time finding out

that these teams actually get paid money from the NCAA to be in the tournament. So this is a big deal for these schools and for their programs. Yes, especially for the smaller conferences, because they, you know, they don't have the big TV contracts that the ACC and the Big Ten and the Pac-12 have. They've got to get by with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of streaming and television rights and then whatever money they happen to get from the NCAA tournament from their participation. Wow. I did not know that. I had no idea that this was – I mean I knew that this was a billion-dollar business. that this was i mean i knew that this was a billion dollar business yeah i just didn't realize that the the colleges themselves were getting paid and so they're competing this is a real deal these people are competing there's there's money on the line here wow the more yeah the more games you win the more money you get it's just a shame that that money doesn't go to the students yeah

that is but listen this is america we we couldn't have it any other way. All right. Let's not get crazy, Chris. Let's not get crazy. All right. So are there any first-time coaches or first-time teams in the tournament this year? Well, we actually do have one first time. We seem to have a first time team every year. And the one that really stands out to me this year is Lipscomb out of the Atlantic Sun Conference, which is a small 18 conference in the southeastern United States with one outlier up in New Jersey. They're usually Dunk City, Florida Gulf Coast usually wins that league. They lost to Lipscomb, who's out of Nashville. They will represent that conference. They play North Carolina in the first round on Thursday.

Well, it was nice while it lasted, wasn't it? Yeah. Well, so now is that set up to make the better teams, to give them an easier path to the tournament, or is it more set up for a entertainment uh to have these these lower seeds i mean most tournaments go that way the lower seed takes on the big c but i'm saying i think for television and for entertainment it's probably better to have like this team go up against the you want the david and goliath story right and that's the one thing

that really kind of attracted me to this event when I was a kid, was seeing these teams, you know, you know, I knew all these big name schools, but seeing these little teams from the mid-major conferences going in there and getting their shot on national television, on CBS, or now CBS and Turner, you know, getting those opportunities, that was the thing that kind of drew me into this. This is awesome. Yeah, it really is. It's very exciting for that reason. Last year, there was a team, a first time tournament team. Everyone loved them. They were the darling of the tournament. I believe you, the three of us get with Gary, we're talking

about whether or not they would go anywhere. Me being the cynical comedian that I am, I said that they would crash and burn in the very first game. I believe that's what's happened. I forget the name of the team though. And I got to go back and think about it because that's the one thing about doing this job. When you do it so frequently, you kind of forget what happened the year before. Northern Kentucky was one of the three. UC Davis was one and North Dakota was another one. So we had, we had actually, we had four first time, four first time participants last year. I forgot Jacksonville state as well out of Alabama. That's the one Jacksonville state. Everybody was like, yeah, they're going to do something. Cause, uh, and I was like, yeah, they're going home. That's what they're going to do. All right. That's what they're

going to do. They're going to go home. So, all right. So do you think that this system is fair, you know, from your estimation? Think about this, and here's why. You just said that a team with a losing record can get an automatic bid because of where they play, but then you've got a team that may be much better than that team that has to go through the selection process and may be on the bubble and get kind of knocked off. So is this a fair system?

In a word, no, because here's the thing. I think that the mid-major conferences, they have conference tournaments, and they use that to select their automatic bid. And what that does, you have your number one seed and it's a single elimination tournament. That team can always get knocked off. So if you have a really good team, let's take the Sun Belt this year who had Louisiana, Louisiana Raging Cajuns out of Lafayette. They were looking like a 12 or 13 seed.

You know, they could have won a game or two because they're a very talented, very athletic team. They got knocked out by UT Arlington in the semifinals. Replacing them is Georgia State. Now, Georgia State, though, they won a game a couple of years ago as a 14 seed. Not as good this year. They don't have an NBA player on their roster this time around. They're a 15 seed. They're playing Cincinnati. That's not a great matchup for the Sun Belt. And as I said, when there's financial implications for these conferences, they've got to win games to get more money. You want to have your best team in the field. You don't want, you know, your number two seed or your number four seed necessarily getting in when your number one seed is that

much better. Because that helps the whole conference when your team does that, right? Yeah. Okay. So, all right. Well, it's not fair, but, you know, once again, like I said, this is America. So, it's not supposed to be fair, okay? It's supposed to make it against the odds. Pull yourself up by your shoelaces. Now, what I would like, though, and, you know, when you talk about the financial side of things, I would like to see more conferences implement some kind of double elimination

system for their conference champion. Hey, that's another game to put on television. That's more money potentially. So that's, you know, that's potentially a way to think about it. All right, cool. Let's move on to bubble teams. Are there any teams in the bubble this year that you like and think that they have a shot? Here's the thing about this year's bubble. It was really deep. I had a bubble watch post this morning. It featured 17 teams. And even though I only missed one at large this year, I went in there thinking that any one of these nine teams that are left out, they could get in and they could win a game or two. And the same thing applies to the teams that actually didn't get in. Because

the thing with this season was outside of really the top eight to 10 teams, it was remarkably even. So we have a lot of teams here that I think are going to have a really interesting shot in the first couple of rounds to kind of get through depending on their matchups. One team that stands out to me wasn't a bubble team. They could have been a bubble team if they didn't win their automatic bid from my backyard here in Chicago, Loyola University. Last time they made the tournament, 1985, they made the Sweet 16. Very similar team, great shooting team. They won at Florida at my alma mater in December, which mid-major teams don't do. They play Miami in the first round, and then they

potentially could play Tennessee in the second round. And that's a path that, you know, they could maybe make the Sweet 16 out of that. Wow. Another couple bubble teams to keep an eye on. Texas has a big center in Mohamed Bamba, who's going to be an NBA pick. They're a 10 seed. I think they have a great shot. Oklahoma is, you know, in that range as well, you know, with Trey Young, who's dominated media coverage throughout college basketball. He's another guy to kind of keep an eye on, you know, if they've struggled lately, but if they get hot, they have a shot. Providence just played three overtime games in the Big East tournament. They're a 10 seed. They're probably going to lose to North Carolina in the second round, but they can get by Texas A&M in the first.

Maybe, yeah. And then again, when you play those overtime games, I think that that kind of wears you down. But who knows? Another squad to keep an eye on from a potential, from the automatic bid side of things, is New Mexico State, who is a 12 seed. They played Clemson in the first round and they would potentially play Auburn if they win that game. And Auburn is kind of in an interesting spot right now, roster-wise. Yeah. And that's kind of cool that Auburn since what, 2003, that's when the last time they made it. So. Yeah, it's been a long time. I'm a little worried about their prospects just because they have a great young interior player who went

down, whose name seems to be right now. Don't worry about it. I don't know his name either. And I have to tell you, the one thing that I don't do in college basketball, unless you're a huge star, is follow the personnel. You kind of follow the programs, and I think that's why coaches become more rock stars than the players, and that's because the players, they're leaving. Yeah. Anthony McLemore, he's been out, and they have not been the same, especially inside. Okay.

So they have struggled since he went out. Since his injury, since February really, they have struggled., since he, since his injury, you know, since February, really, they have struggled. They've lost five games and won four. They're four and five in their last nine. That's not really a great way to go in the tournament. They, they lost to Alabama for the second time this season in the SEC tournament. So they, you know, have a little bit to do when they go play college at Charleston on,

on Friday. And well, you know, for them, I them i say um there's always prayer okay so just keep that in mind guys keep that in mind uh let me ask you this um is it better to be a team that kind of runs and guns it plays real fast scores very high or is it better to be a team slows the game down plays it on their own terms or maybe you're a team that slows the game down, plays it on their own terms, or maybe you're that team that slows it down, plays real slow, but you're still high scoring because you shoot a lot of three-pointers. What do you think is the best combination? I think the last one is probably the best combination because the three-point shot is really the great equalizer in college basketball, so much so that in the NIT, they're actually

going to experiment with pushing the three-point line out a bit to try to get teams to play more inside, play more of a mid-range game. Yeah, nobody wants to see that though. We like seeing somebody rain down drops from above. That's what we like. But to me, the one thing that you want to keep an eye on making your picks is you've spent really the past two and a half months playing in your conference. You're used to a very specific style of officiating in particular, and you're used to a very specific set of opponents and their styles. You're going to be matched up against teams, and it's not so much in the first round because you have a few days to prepare. But it's on that second turnaround from Thursday to Saturday or Friday to Sunday where you don't have all that much time to prepare. And you have to try to get used to a completely different style of offense and potentially defense and a different style of officiating.

And the teams that can make those adjustments the most quickly and the most efficiently, those are the ones that are going to do it well. So you want to look for the teams that are well coached and the teams that also have a fair amount of talent and have a lot of good veteran leadership. Yeah, I was going to say that sounds to me like the teams with good coaches and teams that have been there before, as well as teams that have maybe some seniors and some guys that know what they're doing. So those are very good points. What's the best bracket you ever filled out? In all the years that I've done this, and honestly, since I've started doing bracketology, my picks have just gotten progressively worse. There was one year, I think, was it actually 2014, where I think everything pretty much went, everything went to hell.

And Florida, I had Florida going to win the national championship because they were number one overall seed. I went to the final four and i ended up just winning my pool by default because everybody else's final four picks had just gone and completely into the trash and i had one team left standing that's pretty much it that's i overanalyze this stuff so i really have no shot well you know what and it's fun because uh that's what i love about the uh the the tournament is the fact that i don't know anything and i have just as good a chance as somebody who knows so much like you i have just as good a chance of getting a good bracket out of it uh from what from what i understand um there are nine quintillion possibilities when the tournament starts.

So there are nine quintillion ways to fill out the bracket. If you are a really good basketball aficionado, if you're a person with a great deal of basketball knowledge, with a great deal of basketball knowledge, I think the odds then drop down to one in 128 billion of picking the perfect bracket. So it really doesn't make a difference how bad you did, Chris. You did better than the odds ever could let you do. Warren Buffett's money is very much safe

since he hasn't run that bracket contest in many years. Yeah. Well, I have to tell you, man, once I found out these stats, and I will put this out there right now, this is not sanctioned by Playing With Science or the StarTalk organization. But I am going to say right now to anyone listening, if you pick a perfect bracket, I will fly you to New York City

and pay for you to have dinner with Neil deGrasse Tyson. I will set that up personally and make it happen if you pick a perfect bracket. So, and, you know, all I'm saying is we'll go in the honor system too. I'm going to put it out there like that. We'll go on the honor system. And if anybody has the nerve to actually tell me they picked the perfect bracket, when they get to New York, I'm going to hit you with a baseball bat. So let me ask you this because we're pretty much out of time.

We spent way more time than we should have, but this has been a lot of fun. One, how many number one seeds do you think will make it this year? Two, has there ever been a time where the final four was all four number one seeds? And then I'll ask you about your elite eight. I think this year we're going to probably end up having two number one seeds make it out of the four. It's funny you ask. We've only had it happen once where all four number one seeds have made it. And that was 10 years ago, 2008. Wow. Cool. Yeah. And it was also in San Antonio where the final four is this year. Oh, wow. Cool. All right. Something to look

forward to. So, you know what? Skip the Elite Eight. Let's go to the final four. Tell me, who do you have for your Final Four or who would you like to see? Even if you're just not making a prediction, who would you like to see as your Final Four? And then who do you think will be in that championship game? And then, of course, who will win it all? I warned you about Arizona earlier. I'm taking Arizona out of the east, so that knocks out one scene in Virginia. I think that Villanova, their path in the east is fairly easy, so I think that they're going to get through out of there. I think Kansas will make it out of the Midwest. Duke is kind of their biggest hurdle in that region, and Michigan State as well. They're going to have to really earn their way there. And finally, I'm taking North Carolina out of the West. So that would set up a final four of Arizona versus North Carolina State

and Villanova, Kansas. And I'm going to go with Arizona. I really like the way Arizona's playing right now. I'm taking Arizona over Kansas in the final. Wow. Look at that. So an Arizona championship this year, 2018, according to Chris Daubertine, which I'm excited to see whether or not that happens. I'm picking the team

with the black dude. That's really not a bad idea. I got feeling i'm i got a feeling i'm gonna win man well listen chris this has been awesome thank you so much for uh joining us and having some fun with the bracket this year uh so sorry that gary couldn't be here with us to do it. It's always more fun when we're all together. Keep up the great work. Everyone can find you at bloggingthebracket.com. And you do some incredible writing. And you are just so knowledgeable. If you're a fan of college basketball, period, you should definitely read Chris.

It's an education that is well worth it. And we're going to wrap things up. Thank you all for joining us. On behalf of Gary O'Reilly, I'm Chuck Nice, telling you that when you play with fire, you get burned. And when you play with science, you get learned. We'll see you soon.