StarTalk Radio - #ICYMI - The Science of Thoroughbred Racing

Episode Date: April 25, 2019

In case you missed this episode on the Playing with Science channel…. What does it take to win the Kentucky Derby? Hosts Gary O’Reilly and Chuck Nice explore thoroughbred genetics and the ins and outs of horse racing with Dr. Stephen Harrison from Thoroughbred Genetics and former champion steeplechase jockey Sean Clancy. Photo Credit: Velo Steve [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)] Subscribe to SiriusXM Podcasts+ on Apple Podcasts to listen to new episodes ad-free and a whole week early.

I'm Gary O'Reilly. And I'm Chuck Nice. And this is Playing With Science. Today we delve into the sport of kings, a.k.a. horse racing. So what makes a winner? Is it nature or nurture? Or does nature need a nudge? One of, if not the world's leading expert on thoroughbred genetics is Dr. Stephen Harrison, who will untangle the equine DNA for us and show us how you go about breeding a Kentucky Derby winner.

And giving us a view from the top, on top of a horse, that is, is former championship steeplechase jockey and a person actively involved in buying and selling bloodstock is Sean Clancy. So saddle up, it's time to ride out. But first, let's talk to Dr. Stephen Harrison. How are you, doctor? I'm very well, thank you, Gary.

How are you? I'm fabulous, thank you for asking. Right, Thoroughbred Genetics. Quite an interesting title. So let's ask a quite simple question. How do you go about or what makes a thoroughbred horse? Well, a thoroughbred horse is a fantastic animal. It's a fantastically athletic animal.

It's totally artificial, of course. It's been evolved over the course of about 350 years just by man. It wouldn't have evolved naturally. It has its roots going back into the 1600s but the first stud book was set up in in 1791 and from that point onwards every horse that was bred for racing that was called a thoroughbred has to be in that stud book so over 350 years what we've got is is concerted breeding that's happened and it's concentrated genes in these animals that are so specific just for racing

and that you know you don't get any other animals like them if you took any thoroughbred even the worst thoroughbred and you put it up against a horse of any other breed not not one that's been derived from a thoroughbred like a quarter horse but any other breed it would beat them even the worst thoroughbreds are faster than anything else and they've got all the genetic combinations that make them just pure racing animals. So, doctor, with that in mind, when you talk about selective breeding, how does genetic diversity play into that? Or is there enough diversity in the pool that makes up thoroughbreds? Because I thought that, you know, if you had genetic diversity, you were actually stronger. But you're saying that, you know, these animals are so narrow in their breeding that that's why they're bred basically for running and for racing. That's it. So how does diversity play into that?

That's true. That's a great question because diversity is really important. And I would kind of argue that thoroughbreds probably aren't as inbred as people think they are if you look at the thoroughbred breed themselves you pick out individuals but they all look quite different they're all different colors they're all different sizes you get ones running over different distances they jumped over jumps in jumps racing they've run on the flat so they are quite versatile which is a strong indication that they're not particularly inbred they've all evolved over 350 years to be racing animals, but there's so much diversity in the racing within that group that there's no real massive fixation,

like you get in pedigree dogs, for instance. In fact, thoroughbreds, I would say, are pedigree mongrels, basically. Oh, interesting. Wow, that's interesting. That's really cool actually so they're very much like human human beings very much so but like a group of athletes in a running club they're all different but they're all doing the same job right right all right so we we've kind of got to the nub of what a thoroughbred is,

and thank you. Now, the bit that interests everybody with a dollar in their pocket, how do breeders slash owners and trainers gain an edge or a winning edge from the sort of work that you do with these thoroughbred horses? Yeah, I mean, that's a good question too. And we set the company up in 2000, so it's been going a few years now with the view to getting all this pedigree data and all this performance data that has been collected over the last 350 years and trying to make genetic sense

out of it by applying DNA tests. So what we were trying to do is actually make sense of what works and what doesn't work. And the edge comes in what we would consider to be something like the equivalent you had on your show a few weeks ago, the money ball. So what we're doing is using the probability of looking at a whole lot of genes that we think are important or not important and seeing what animals have which genes and looking at the balance they've

got and seeing how that works in probability wise just like it would in money ball so we're looking at a 35 to 40 percent heritability of racing um of racing ability and we look at all these different factors and we put them in a statistical model and we when we're looking at horses to breed or horses to buy we'll use that system to assess um a kind of moneyball type system so we an example recently we looked at a whole lot of yearlings that we'd help people buy over the last few years so in terms of prize money quality of race and their official ratings we estimated that probably using the system we got gave a 30 percent increase all those things over the system we would use if we didn't use the genetics input.

Ooh. That's pretty impressive. Yeah, I mean, you must have become pretty popular within the bloodstock business. We kind of have our fans, and we have people that aren't fans as well. I think it's a very traditional business. And again, using the moneyball analogy, you saw what kind of resistance there was to that in terms of baseball and certainly in soccer to a certain extent.

Is there resistance? Is there the old ways are the best and don't try and change it? Could be, yeah. But some of the old ways are great. I mean, there have been a lot of successes in the old ways,

but you look at adding extra things as you go along in terms of trying to increase the percentage in every little way. So if you think about, say,

Vincent O'Brien, the great racehorse trainer, he used to look at so many different things. He used to take every little small thing into account and make sure

he was the most successful. It's the same as the British cycling team in the Olympics. The small things they take into account make a big difference. So when it comes to the breeding and the genetic markers that you're looking for, is there anything that you find, or like in human beings, there are certain mutations that we have that cause certain things.

Does it work the same way in horses that you might find something that says, okay, this horse will be more likely to yes and no because of these anomalies that you find? I'm not just talking about the things that you know you're looking for. That's my real question. Are there things you find that you weren't looking for when you do these tests that may be beneficial or detrimental to the horse? Yeah, there are always kind of anomalies that you find and a lot of them aren't necessarily anomalies. They're just things we've never found before. I mean, you don't kind of find very often major mutations that other horses don't have. It's normally a mutation that lots of horses have.

It's happened a long time back and it's been selected for on the basis of its contribution to racing ability. But there aren't any kind of major things that you'd see that just suddenly appear. It's not any kind of major things that you'd see that just suddenly appear. You know, for instance, sprinting and distance ability in a broad sense is down to a single mutation in the muscle genes. So it would broadly say that a horse is going to be a short-distance horse, a long-distance horse, or a middle-distance horse.

But the effects are so obvious. You know, the muscly horse looks like a sprinter. The leaner horse looks like a sprinter the leaner horse looks like a stayer so you don't even bother testing for a lot of time what you're more interested in are the smaller genes that say what kind of a sprinter is it going to be is it going to be a really short distance sprinter is it going to be a long distance sprinter it's these kind of fine tuning genes are the most important that would make a difference to trainers because they know by looking at a horse that it's a short-distance horse.

But they don't know what kind of, was it a 5-8-mile horse or was it a mile horse? You know, you've got to look at all these other different little genes as well. Wow. I mean, if I remember my high school or A-level biology, the powerhouse of a cell is the mitochondrial. And you've got mitochondrial genes that you look for. I mean, please explain just how vital they are within the horse DNA. But we've got a big kind of affection for those

because they're the first ones that we really showed that had an association with stamina and speed. So back in 2006, we looked at a whole load of samples from about 1,000 horses, and we categorized them based on the mitochondrial genes. And we saw, again, by looking at pedigrees that were extrapolated from the samples, because I need to point out that the mitochondrial DNA is only passed on down the female side, so it doesn't get broken up by any kind of randomization.

And you can therefore then say that a horse has got that pedigree, therefore it should have that particular mitochondrial set of genes. So we could then work out what in history, how many types have won the Derby, how many types have won the Kentucky Derby, all the kind of different races. So we could say that that particular type is associated more with short distance, that type is associated with long distance.

And then we started building this into models for genetics. And what we would do is consider that to be like, again, going back to your previous shows, like a NASCAR F1 argument. So we'd call the mitochondrial genes a chassis, and we'd try and build the rest of the horse around it. So if it was a long-distance chassis, we'd try and get other genes in that made it a long-distance horse

so that we made coordinated horses or helped breed coordinated horses so that they were very specific and ran over certain distances to the best of their ability rather than being even bigger mongrels than they already are. Wow. So let me ask you with respect to steroids, because I read that steroid use amongst horse trainers, it's totally, it's not like our sports. They're used and they're sanctioned. And so it's okay to do that. But that had to be a relatively new development in horse racing. I'm talking about going back over the years of the history of the sport, as Gary said, it's the sport of kings. Have you seen any effect that steroids might have had on the genetic makeup of horses in their lineage, or is it just too short a period

of time to affect the development of DNA in that way. Yeah, I mean, the steroids wouldn't have any effect on the DNA, but also you're not actually allowed to use steroids to any great excess in thoroughbreds. I mean, whilst they're actually racing, they can be used as a treatment, but until it's out of the system, they can't run again. I mean, particularly in Europe, they're really, really tough on drugs. You can't even use Lasix to run horses on here like you can in the USA. So let me just get that straight. You can use it as a means of treating the horse as a means of recovery, but you can't use it as a means of performance enhancement. Is that the case?

Oh, yeah, absolutely right. Yeah, no, you can't use it as a means of performance enhancement, but it is helpful in terms of treatment if you need a horse that needs it. Okay, well, that clears up my understanding then. Yeah, so there you go. Forget what I asked then. Doctor, we sort of

clarified the obvious. You can analyze DNA. That'll tell you whether this guy is going to go fast over a short distance, faster over a middle or a longer distance, or the power is there for jumping, all the indicators, biological indicators without actually physically looking at it. But can your data analysis then go beyond breeding? For instance, can you then, using this information, indicate which training techniques will work better for certain horses does it have other knock-on effects in a positive sense

oh yeah definitely i mean the the way that that affects training is actually really important for us um so for instance uh if we've got a whole lot of different genes involved in stamina and speed, that definitely affects the kind of way you train them. For instance, we've got an example at the moment. We hope people who've got a two-year-old that did really well last year, won graded races, and this year they're having to decide

whether to put it in the one-and-a-half-mile English Derby or not because some indications genetically are that it might not make that trip and we're kind of deliberating at the moment as to whether or not it should run in the French Derby which is a mile and a quarter but then you come up with another problem

then is that the French Derby is often run in very soft ground so does that then make that race a mile and a half so yeah I mean it is being used by our clients to do that. And also you get cases where somebody's bought a horse or they've bred a horse that's basically got mismatched body work.

Again, we're going back to that analogy with the motor car racing, with the NASCAR and the Formula One. Sometimes you get a car, a horse that's been made up of a Formula One chassis, a NASCAR body work and a Formula One engine. What we don't want is that to happen. What we want is a horse that's geared up to run over a set distance with all the genetic components in place. So we then have to take the best course of action and say,

well, that horse is more of a mile and a half horse, therefore we'll train it for a mile and a half. So it's taking things on balance and probability again. Wow. So let me ask you this with respect to what you just said. You look at like all the money that is spent in the breeding and this is like just a multimillion dollar industry. And everybody wants to get that secretariat. Everybody wants to get that unbelievable horse. And I hear owners speak about their horses as athletes. And I also hear them say things like, this horse wants to win, okay? Or they talk about the temperament of the horse. Are they projecting? Are they anthropomorphizing?

are they projecting are they anthropomorphizing or is that real and if it's real could there be a gene linked to those qualities that seem to be intangible oh yeah definitely they definitely got personalities and they're definitely uh their minds work in different ways there are so many examples of that i mean and some of them aren't very pleasant to be honest some of the ones that win races are just not pleasant characters. There was a horse called Moonax that used to run an island. It used to veer off across the track

to attack other horses so that they didn't get past it. Oh, I like that one. Yeah, it was quite entertaining to watch. Then, I mean, I had the privilege to ride Red Rum

when I was a boy and he was not particularly... No! Wow. You rode Red Rum when I was a boy, and he was not particularly... No. Wow. You rode Red Rum? Stop the... Yeah, I did. Hold the page.

You rode Red Rum? That was when I was a lot lighter. Yeah. Well, listen, let's... Hey, Doc, Doc, let's be serious. If you're riding a horse named Red Rum, that's murder backwards. I don't expect it to be nice.

Yeah, it was my last memory. Chuck, this is a Grand National winner. This horse was a national treasure. Am I right, Doctor? Oh, yeah, it was a fantastic horse. I mean, I went to see him just before he died, actually, and my last memory of him

was him biting me because I didn't give him the last Polo Mint. Lovely. So, you know. That'll teach you. That's the sign of a true champion. Behind closed doors, they're all

a-holes. So, Doctor, apart from our little... The fact you rode Red Rum, I'm just thrilled to bits. Where does your work go from here? Is there another level and another area you can take it to in terms of genetics?

We keep on developing new genetic analysis all the time. And we're trying to improve it all the time. But there are so many variables involved. We can't cover everything all in the first go. There are so many variables involved. We can't cover everything all in the first go. And, you know, it's only still early days. You know, we've been doing it since 2000. But we're adding to it all the time. If you look at all the variables, I mean, if you look at the factors we look at between 75 and 750 genes and about three different variants.

So there are so many different combinations. But every now and again you get a good horse comes along, like Frankel or Justify. It happens. And if you look at the odds of winning a five-card poker hand, which is if you get a Royal Flush, that's 650,000 to one. If you consider that

there's so many more jeans involved than there are cards in a deck, the combinations are unbelievable. What we're trying to do is cut down that kind of failure rate, if you like, and to promote the better odds in achieving that Royal Flush with the horses. Wow. So now that kind of brings you into genetic engineering. Do you see a time where engineering will be just where the industry is and the people who have the best facilities for engineering a horse

genetically will be the ones who produce winners? There's you veering off to the dark side again. You were talking about steroids. Now you're talking about engineering things you can't keep you down can you come on doc listen I gotta go there man you know people are thinking this stuff you know people are thinking this stuff

yeah you can't use genetic manipulation in thoroughbred it's not allowed you can't even use artificial insemination the stallion has to get down to business and do it there in situ you can't even use artificial insemination so that stallion has to get down to business and do it there in situ. You can't even use artificial insemination. That's not going to happen.

It's interesting what you say about the money involved, though, because with thoroughbred breeding and with thoroughbred racing, you've essentially got different leagues within the thoroughbred world. You've got your Premier League going down to your conference, if you look at English soccer terms, or your high school going all League going down to your conference. If you look at English soccer terms

or your high school going all the way up to your NFL, if you look at American ones, the people who kind of reside in the Premier League are the ones with more money. So they can buy better horses. They can buy better mares. They can use better stallions. So they're getting better genes involved in their horses.

And we've looked at the cast-offs of some of these big organizations that have got fantastic breeding programs. We look at them when they come to the sales, and we kind of look at the genetics of them, and we graphically represent what we find into little shapes that are characteristic of certain groups. And you can always see that the castoffs from the best breeding organizations or the biggest ones have got a certain pattern which is different from any of the other patterns.

So they concentrate their own kind of genes within their own kind of breeding groups. And that, you know, if they ever come up for sale, they're certainly worth buying into because the genes that ordinary breeders can't generally get their hands on. Wow. Wow. Wow.

That is fascinating stuff, man. I mean, like, who would think that the world of horse breeding would be so intricate and, you know, so incredibly scientifically engaging. So this is really just great stuff, man. I'm so glad that you came and told us about it. I mean, it's really, really fascinating. Oh, no. I mean, Chuck, you want a great horse, then you got to get great genes. Well, this is true. And, you know, a lot of times I say if I want great genes, I got to go see a good horse.

There you go. Right now, I got to go see a man about a horse. So, no. All right. Doctor, thank you. And thank you for opening up our minds to the world of thoroughbred genetics. It is fascinating. And we'll keep an eye on your studies and your developments because I think, as you said, there is more to come. Great. Thanks for having me I've

really enjoyed it absolutely pleasure's been ours doctor thank you very much Dr Stephen Harrison there from Thoroughbred Genetics over in the UK we are going to take a commercial break when we come back former championship steeplechase jockey Sean Clancy and a man who's at the cutting edge of the doctor's work in bloodstock, the buying and selling of horses, racehorses, that is. Stick around. We'll be back very, very shortly. Welcome back to Playing With Science.

Thank you to Dr. Harrison from Thoroughbred Genetics. All right, that is simply what the scientists are thinking about horse DNA. But what is it truly like to be on the back, on top of a horse, to be the person who's actually going to go to the auction and buy it? Well, it's quite simple. We've combined both of those people into one, and we have Sean Clancy with us right now. Okay, and time to welcome Sean Clancy, a former championship jump jockey. Yes. Yeah. And now, if you ever want to true test a manhood chart, get on the back of one of these big beasts. No. Don't run flat. No. Find yourself

a series of jumps. Oh, my God. I can't wait. I can't wait to talk to him because it's steeplechase. Oh, my God. This man actually ran steeplechase. Well, he didn't run it. The horses ran it. But he was a jockey and a championship jockey. And I am fascinated by that. I can't wait to talk to him about it. I know, but that's one part of this guy's life.

The other side of this life is bloodstock. So we speak to Dr. Harrison. We find out what the theory is about, you know, what it takes to be a great thoroughbred. Right. Someone's actually got to put that theory into practice. Yes. Sean does that with bloodstock. So the buying, selling, understanding, looking at of horses. This is where Sean comes in. This is putting into practice the theories that Dr. Harrison discussed with us. So, Sean Clancy, welcome to Playing With Science, sir.

Hi, guys. Hey, Sean. Okay, all right. We got to get into bloodstock because, you know, we're talking about horses here. That's what this show is about. And, you know, the science behind it, which is fascinating.

But before we do that, man, I just got to talk to you about steeplechase and what it's like to actually do this. So, okay, people, here's what you do. Picture a horse race, okay? Like the Kentucky Derby, which is already dangerous enough, right? It's already fast moving enough, right? You have these horses thundering around a track, okay? And then all of a sudden it's like, let's jump a small river. track okay and then all of a sudden it's like let's jump a small river that steeplechase yo man you got to just talk to me about this how'd you get into it and what what is it like when you are i mean this this isn't some equestrian show where you see the guys you know kind of going around a

little a little arena and they're you know they make the jumps and then they trot. You guys are full out like sprinting and jumping hedges and water hazards. And tell me about it. Well, for me, I mean, I grew up with it, so it made perfect sense. I mean, once you look outside your life, you realize it makes no sense. But when you're growing up and your dad's doing it and your friends are doing it, you're living on a farm. And, uh, it was a very natural thing for me to do. I mean, I started riding pony races when I was 13. Um, I actually won my first pony race and, uh, the stirrup fell off the saddle and I fell off the pony and the pony ran over me and got

seven stitches. So that was my first ride. And, um,. Yeah, that was my first when I was 13 years old. And that pretty much sums up the career of a steeplechase jockey. You have the, you know, in one race you can win and fall and go to the hospital. So it's, I mean, pure adrenaline. It's amazing how slow it can actually be going. I mean, when you're going 30 miles an hour on a horse, in a pack of 10, 12, 14 horses, going two miles, two and a quarter, two and a half miles, it actually goes really slowly.

I mean, you know, when you're in that moment, when you get good, I mean, at least when you get that kind of experience. When I was a young kid, it's going really fast. And for the older guys, uh, it slows down and, um, you know, then you're really tactically trying to ride a race and trying to do all the things like any athlete is trained to do. And, um, I always laugh that I've retired now, but I always laugh when I see these jump jockeys they'll say i they'll retire and i'll say i don't know what i'm gonna do to find what how i'm gonna find something replace riding jump races and i go well that's your first mistake there is nothing that's going

to replace riding chase races so find something else that might give you some pleasure or you know some interest some challenge but forget replacing it because that's impossible. Yeah, like, you know, just become like a, I don't know, like a, what do they call it? A bomb diffuser. Anything like that. Something that would bring your adrenaline to the highest point that it could possibly be. Give you an echo of what it takes. Right.

Give you just a small, like, taste of what it's like. I have to tell you i'm gonna get off of it now because we got to move on to the horses but it is anybody just go on youtube people and just put in steeplechase and just watch some of these races if you want to i mean your adrenaline this is why this is why it excites me so i can't imagine how the jockeys feel how the jump guys feel because my adrenaline is pumped just watching. See, it's not just the adrenaline, because you can go and get an adrenaline rush

in a number of different places in a number of different ways. I am on another species that has its own free will and mind, and I'm trying to get it to do stuff. It is such a test of yourself and then being able to orchestrate this other beast to do this thing. And you have to have a synergy between it is the most amazing. Interesting question, Sean. So race car drivers often say, I feel like I'm at one with this machine. Great point. I feel like I'm at one with this machine. I feel like I'm at one with the road. Do you feel that connection when you're with the animal? Does it feel like

you guys are in sync together or is that just some kind of machination, the romantic machination that we put in our heads? No, for sure. I mean, when it's going well, you feel like you're at one with the horse for sure. I mean, you're really, you're thinking the same, you're reacting the same. The horse's instincts are your instincts. A good horse, the moment you think, God, we should go like at a jump, you say, man, we should be going long at this. And the moment you even get that thought,

like the moment you get the split second, the millisecond you think long, he thinks the same thing and increases to that stride. That's when it's going well. When it's going poorly, there's no in sync and it's a complete disaster. When you guys are having a telepathy argument,

that's when things... Yeah. Right. So the interesting thing is race car drivers, it's all about horsepower. Like with Sean, only there's several hundred more. But, alright, let's bring it back to where we are. Alright, we're in an auction. Just imagine that Chuck and I with a seat suitcase full of dollars or whatever the currency is. What's the first thing you would look for in a

horse if you were looking to purchase one? Uh, I mean, I look them dead in the eye. You know, as soon as I see a horse, the first thing I look is right in their eye and try to get a sense of who they are. I mean, I can get a pretty good sense. I mean, anybody who's been around horses, you get a good sense of the horse's kind of attitude, his confidence level, his approach to life. So you kind of look them in the eye.

And then my first move is just to look at the balance. I mean, I think the most important thing when you're looking at a horse is just if they're balanced. Because there's big ones, small ones. There's skinny ones. There's tall ones. There's narrow ones. What you want is balance, just how they walk, how they stand. You want everything to go together.

So what I try to do is just as they walk out of the stall, you look them. I like to look them right in the eye and just see their head, their presence, and then watch them walk and see if they have that balance that I like. And presence is a lot of it. You really want a horse with. You can't write a theory or an equation or do research. Not for that. No, that's got to come from experience. So when you say balance, I'm just trying to understand, are you talking about like musculature? Are you

talking about symmetry? Are you talking about a gestalt, which is, you know, the way the animal carry itself along with all these other aspects? What exactly do you mean by balance? You want, well, you want in a horse, you want a big strong front end but you but you also need the strong hind end to push that front end so you know that when you go like you if you walk in the paddock for the Kentucky Derby there'll be 20 horses in there and they will be all different shapes and sizes but for pretty much all of them they will be balanced so if you have a light made horse that's athletic you need to have a really light, you want a light front end, light hind end, light middle. So, so it all kind of goes together. What you don't want in a horse is a big, you know, heavy neck, heavy shoulder, but then not have the hind end to push that or

the walk to, uh, to, to maintain that a lot. Most of the auctions, you're just seeing them walk. So I get a yearling sale. You're only seeing them walk. So you're really trying to figure out by that walk, how they're going to gallop, how they're going to race, how, you know, when they go faster, how much balance they're going to have. That's really what you're trying to do. It's kind of like professional, what's it called when the guys- Bodybuilders. Yeah, professional bodybuilders. That's how they're judged. Kind of like it's all about- It's an aesthetic.

Yeah. And then again, it's balance. It's balance and aesthetic. So, okay, Chuck and I, we're two multi-billionaires. Right. Don't tell the accountant. Yes. What's the biggest mistake Chuck and I are going to make?

For sure, absolutely guaranteed as newbies. As a novice. As a novice billionaire trying to get into the horse game, baby. Well, the most important thing in a public auction is you don't want to get caught up in the moment, the ego part, to try to show off because it's a big adrenaline rush. The public auction, what they always tell you, you got to remember the auction team is not friends with the buyer. So they're trying to get you to spend more. So you want to keep that in check.

You want to keep your emotions in check, your ego in check. So you want to keep that in check. You want to keep your emotions in check, your ego in check. As far as a horse goes, I think the most important thing when you look at a horse, you don't – I think what you make – the biggest mistake you make is going into it with preconceptions. So if you see a horse – it's a lot about pedigrees and a lot about different things and consignors who owns the horse and things like that. and consignors who owns the horse and things like that. So if you go into it as you walk up to the horse and you have a liking to that stallion and maybe the mare, you will have that kind of, you'll want to like the horse rather than just that instinct of, is this the right horse or not?

Like my best moves are almost like when I'm not really looking for the horse. It's like when you're just, and you don't know who the stallion is, you don't know who the mare is, and it's almost like it catches you by surprise. And public auctions is difficult because you're obviously in the public auction marketplace. But my best moves privately is when I'm not even going to look at the horse, and I see a horse, and I go, wow, look at that horse. Those are my best moves. So you kind of want to go into it with an open mind rather than a preconception or somebody tells you about a horse, oh, you'll love this horse.

You're much better with a blank slate just walking in and getting that. It's kind of like drafting in every other major league sport. I mean, you know, they tell you, like, don't have your preconceived notions about the player. You got to make sure that, you know, you're looking at what you're looking at. And with that in mind, here's what I want to ask you. Have you ever seen a horse that, like, let's equate this to like the NFL draft or the NBA draft, right?

That, have you ever seen a horse where it's like a six round pick, but it becomes a phenomenal player? Has that, and is that common or just, or is it just the genetics and all the other things that we look at kind of make that? No, it happens all the time. It's not common, but certainly like at a Keeneland, the biggest yearling sale in America is Keeneland and they sell Keeneland September. And these horses are just over a year old, a year and a half old and or a year and about. You know, they're about 16, 18 months old and they sell 5000 horses there. And there's horses come out of that sale that are way deep in the, in the book that don't bring a lot, you know, aren't bringing a lot of money. Um, so yeah, there's certainly

horses come out of the, out of the, um, you know, break the mold. Most of those horses don't have pedigree, but they have confirmation that they're a great looking horse or they're somehow just an athletic looking horse. There's a lot of old things that you're not supposed to do with horses, you know, all these crazy, you know, confirmation things. But ultimately most horses will break those rules too. So yeah, those horses will come out of nowhere for sure. Sean, I must ask you, okay, this is my cynicism. If someone is selling a horse then there must be

something wrong with it otherwise they keep it that's that's yeah i know it's a good question and you know it's funny because my brother used to sell real estate yeah and the first thing you ask is so why are they selling the home exactly like why are you getting rid of this home we put a lot of money into this four-legged straw eatingeating machine, right? So I want to know. So how do you go about getting that mindset or taking it away? No, that's important. And there are, I mean, when I go to a yearling sale, I'll certainly know, I try to know who's selling the horse, who owns the horse. There are some people breed horses to sell. So that's their business. They

are breed, they've raised that horse to sell. They bring their horse to the marketplace, just like any marketplace, whether you're selling napples or cars or whatever. So, you know, you want to take that into consideration. And that's certainly an element of it. Sometimes you go and you're like, yeah, these guys race all their horses, but they're selling this horse. That's probably a bad sign, kind of a red flag. Certainly when they're older and more in a private session. Like for me, I sell a lot of steeplechase horses and prospects that are three- and four-year-olds that are running. And that's always one.

I mean, the first thing I think is, okay, why are these guys selling this horse? I think is, okay, why are these guys selling this horse? If I know the people and they only want really some great flat horses and this horse isn't cutting that, then it makes perfect sense why they're selling that horse, so I'll buy that horse. If a guy is just randomly selling a horse that loves the race and has other options to keep racing the horse, then that's a red flag for sure. I mean, I don't know about that. I don't know why that guy's selling that horse. It's certainly a, I mean, you, you, it's, it's, I mean, the, the stuff that goes into buying that horse certainly who owns the horse and why they're selling it is a part of it. And sometimes you'll say, Oh,

these guys breed, they breed a hundred horses a year and they sell all a hundred. That makes perfect sense. I'm fine with that. If a guy breeds a hundred horses and sells three a year. Yeah. You might, that's not to do. You don't want to deal with that guy perfect sense. I'm fine with that. If a guy breeds a hundred horses and sells three a year, yeah, you might question. No, that's not to do, you don't want to deal with that guy. Yeah. Interesting. So let me ask you this, when it comes to, you know, horses and everyone in the, in your, in your field refers to them as athletes. They're like the athlete, this, the athlete, this is a great athlete. With respect to them being athletes, can you find a

horse that may be at a certain level, say 80%, and then train that horse to get to the 100% that you're looking for, just like a regular athlete or a human athlete? Is that possible? Or are you limited by what the horse is and basically you're kind of stuck in that place. I mean, you're somewhat limited. You're not going to take a slow horse. I mean, an innately slow horse, you're not going to make that horse fast. You can certainly take a, you might make them a little faster. I think you're right. I mean, if you're going for 20% better, sure, you can try to get them in a situation, a different, you put them in a trainer or they'll simply develop. There's sire lines and pedigrees that get better with age.

There's horses that are, some trainers are better than others. Some trainers are better with sprint horses. Some trainers are better with older horses. Some trainers are better with turf horses. So you can move your horse around and try to adjust and kind of create a better environment. Just like athletes, you know, if a guy, you know, if a track and field runner is running a mile and you're thinking, God, he looks like he's more of a sprinter, then, you know, you'd shorten him up and try to train him differently and see if he could run, you know, 1,500 meters or whatever.

So we do that a lot. I mean, you're constantly trying to tweak the horses and trying to adjust things to make them faster, make them more competitive for sure. Sean, how many thoroughbreds on the market at any one time? How many sold during the year? And just how much money is the thoroughbred market worth annually? Just so as people and myself get an idea of what we're talking about here well i mean like the third bread the north american third bread crop there's about 20 000 yearlings um or 20 000 foals a year so there's so roughly it's gone down it was almost 40 000

in 1990 it's down to less than 20 000 now now. But of those horses, those 20,000, not all those will go to a marketplace. But like, for example, Keeneland is the biggest, that's, they sell the most yearlings. And the yearling market is really, a horse would be born, obviously, as a foal in the spring of the spring, the following fall. So he's a little over a year old is the, is the Keeneland's, uh, September sale. And they sell five, almost 5,000 yearlings there. There are lots of other sales during the year. Um, so I mean, I don't have a number on it, but I'd say probably, I mean, of a full crop of, of 20,000, I mean, probably 10,000 of them or would be, yeah, but well, I mean, yeah, probably anywhere between five and 10. I mean, there's certainly lots of other yearling sales. So probably,

you know, roughly half would be, would eventually go to a sale and they can be sold as what they call weanlings. So that's before they turn one year or just after they turn one. Yearling sales, there's two-year-old sales. So it's a big marketplace. And there's huge numbers as far as what people pay for horses. I mean, you'll get like Keeneland. I mean, they'll sell two, $3 million yearlings, and then they'll be selling some later in the books. They're selling very cheaply by the end.

So fall to finish line, Kentucky Derby. I have to call it Derby because for me, it's a Derby. So I'm going to speak American. So it's Kentucky Derby. Thank you. Neil would be so proud of me. Right. So what's it going to take?

Fall to finish line. And where's my money going? As far as money goes? Well, it's going to cost you a lot. I mean, it'll cost you a lot of money. If you're trying to breed one, roughly you're going to find a stallion that stands for $50,000. I mean, there's all the different levels, but that's just a stallion service.

You own the mare. Let's say we'll spend $50000 to breed to a stallion. You own that mare. That's going to cost you, you know, every day you own her. She, she's in foal for 11 months. So you're paying day rate on that, which, you know, you're roughly say fast, probably 50 bucks a day. Then, then you have the foal. It doesn't even get to the races for until it it's two um so you have if you have that horse in training that's going to be a hundred dollars a day from the time he goes to the track

to the derby so um and then you have all the other vagaries of the game which is you know all the lots of other elements, and different things going wrong. And the chances of only owning one horse and getting to the Derby, that's like a million to one. So for you to get to the Derby, you're going to start with 20 or 30 or 40 or 50. I mean, there's people that have hundreds of horses and have never had a Derby start or ever. So, yeah, it's uh it's um it's well they they

might want to find a new endeavor what i'm hearing chuck is keep that suitcase lock the suitcase lock full of money a lot of money out we got to go but i got one last question for you because here's the thing there's a term and it's it's now become political but it and it says horse trading it's now become political, and it says horse trading. It's like, oh, we're horse trading. But it really just means that it's the hardest, shrewdest bargaining that you can do because selling and buying a horse is that difficult. Is it still that way? that way? Is it still like about like the hard, shrewd deal or has it become more baseline like any other business where commodities are bought and sold? I mean, look, it's still, no, it's still a hard, I mean, it's a hard thing to do. It's, you know, it's a lot of elements to it. You know, you're trying, like when you're trying to buy a horse, you're trying to combine everything. You're looking at his pedigree, you're looking at, looking who owns

it, looking at how athletic it is. And then you got a guy who's selling it. You don't know if the guy's just trying to unload the horse or he's trying, or the horse is a nice horse and he's trying to get what he's getting. You're at a public auction, which is everybody's there and everybody's trying to buy the horse. So, or not trying to buy the horse. There's lots of, uh, gimmicks and games and things that happen just like any, um, any commerce. Um, so, you know, you gotta be good at it. You gotta be, um, you gotta get lucky. Uh, it's a little like, I mean, I think if you like baseball it's like like at the astro astro ball if you read that book it's more it's about the the all the details and the numbers and the the all the elements of the you know the the um percentages and numbers and different things but it's also

the the the human you know they they factored in human instinct, guys who can hit in the clutch and who can't. And that's why they were successful. They combined the two. So horse racing is like that. You're combining all the, everything, the science behind it, but also you're just straight good old-fashioned horsemanship trying to figure out, you know, which one's the fastest. Good old-fashioned horse sense.

Yep. Exactly. Sean Clancy, thank you. If people want to find you, learn about this a little bit more, where do they go? Just give us a plug for your... It's where our website's thisishorseracing.com.

That's our publishing website. And my stable's River D Stable, which runs Flat End Jump around the world. There you go. Awesome, man. Thanks so much. Sean Clancy, thank you very much indeed. Thanks, guys. What Dr. Harrison was saying by drilling down into the genetics is one side.

You look at a lifetime of growing up with horses, being a jump jockey from the age of 13. Wow. And what blew me away was what's the first thing you do i look the horse straight in the eye i know that's because the characters they have their own unique characters and this is what he wants to find right there's i mean all of the numbers it's just wrapped up there all of the numbers all of the statistics all of the i mean basically the horse's logbook like you would buy a car and you're going then but then i gotta think what's this horse like

in a certain stage of a race what's this is it built to do this can i get this horse to go a little bit somewhere else can i see potential above and beyond what it's shown in the past yeah it's pretty fascinating the sport of kings and you have to be one to afford it. I'm just very upset that I didn't ask him if he's ever looked a gift horse in the mouth. Damn it. I missed that opportunity. Sean!

Well, that's our show. And we'll never know, will we, unless we get Sean back. We may well do so. From Chuck Nice. And Gary O'Reilly. This has been Playing With Science and our Thoroughbred special. And hopefully your money isn't wasted on the Kentucky Derby.

I know mine won't be because it's not going to go on the horse. Yep, we look forward to your company very, very soon. You enjoyed this show, hopefully. And we ask you to go and find the rest of our shows with Playing With Science., very soon. You enjoy the show, hopefully, and we ask you to go and find the rest of our shows with Playing With Science. Catch up soon.