Stock Talk - 2026 1st Half Outlook: Part 3, New Federal Reserve Chair – Dovish BUT!

Episode Date: January 2, 2026

In Part 3 of Oak Harvest’s 2026 Market Outlook, I explain why our investment team believes 2026 could be a year of elevated market volatility and what history may suggest for long-term investors.   We look at past market behavior during midterm election years, second years of presidential terms, and periods when a new Federal Reserve Chair takes office. While history does not repeat exactly, understanding these patterns can help investors stay grounded during uncertain markets.   Key topics in this video: • 2026 market volatility expectations • Midterm election year market history • New Fed Chair transitions and market reactions • Why volatility often creates opportunity for long-term investors   We will continue covering our 2026 outlook in upcoming videos. Join Troy, Charles, and me for our live 2026 Market Outlook on YouTube on January 29, 2026. Sign up to attend that here: https://click2retire.com/Register-1h-2026-mos   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Investors, this week topic, the third part of our Oak Harvest, 2006 Market Outlook. We've been doing these forecasts for a little over five years now at O'Carvest. Our goal is not to be precisely accurate, although many of our market forecasts have been historically pretty accurate, as well as precise. But rather, it's to give our clients and prospects an idea of what issues, as well as what opportunities the Oak Carvest investment team thinks the coming year might present to investors. There are many times when tactically, investing odds favor going faster and investing more. And there are other times, like going into 2020, that our team said curb your

enthusiasm and proceed more cautiously. As we've seen in a few years, like 2017, those lack volatility. The bull strolls out of the gate and your right is over in 12 relatively uneventful months. Investor looks back at the end of the year and it looks like nothing eventful happened, but your portfolio of stocks gained. However, more often than not, like 2025, you look back at the end of the year, the markets and your investments endured a few bouts of downside volatility. Most years, even in strong bull markets, the bull tries to buck investors off its back onto the ground. Hopefully, an investor ends the year without being gourd. Our team is thinking 2006 will likely be one of those more volatile years. We previously discussed the elevated volatility in midterm

election year, like 2006 will be, to gain in president's second year from 1950, through 2020 period has been only 4.6% per year, less than half the average annual return of the S&P 500 of about 10%. Remember, investors, these are point-to-point returns at the start and end of the year, and they don't include year highs and lows. That is, they don't include volatility throughout the year. For 2006, throw into the mix, it's a midterm presidential election cycle year equation in the market's history of testing a new Fed chairman during their first term, investors should be wary of late first quarter in the second quarter of 2006. What am I talking about? Well, let's talk about it. Clearly, President Trump is looking to

nominate a more dovish Fed chairman as Chairman Powell exits in the first half of 2006. While this is likely to be bullish longer term for equities doesn't guarantee a smooth ride during 2006. Chairman is just one vote and while they have sway, they don't cast votes for others. Investors, the last two Fed meetings are case and point to the Fed becoming more divided on the future path of interest rates. Believe the dot plot or not. Believe the dissensions are not. These events are becoming more and more regular like last year. Historically, the markets test the new Fed chair early in their terms. What am I talking about? Here's a list of recent FOMC chairs. What happened during their first 12 months in the lead seat? Lots of negative peak to trough numbers in there. Team at Oak Carvis believes

that past market cycles have been proving quite omniscient in their predictions of the markets under Trump 2.0 save that minus 10% five-day decline around early April tariff tantrum. A similar outcome to Trump 1.0 in the previous dot-com cycle prevailing in the first half of 2006 triangulates to over 7,200 in the first quarter for the S&P 500, followed by a sharp fall in mid-year into a time period when the new Fed chair steps in, call it mid to late April. Would it be coincidence that right around when future low should show up on this cycle replay is when a new sitting more dove-ish Fed chair hits the FOMC? I don't think so. I also think that future rounds of QE and longer-term treasuries are in the offering as a future Fed looks to try to

control longer-term yields as an offset to higher inflation, higher risk premiums for overspending, or just an upward drift in global long-term interest rates. A new more dovish Fed chairman would likely be cheered by the markets for a while, but don't think it'll be straight lineup in 2006 for the markets. As one can see, there will be pushes and polls in 20206, and we'll address more of these in our upcoming videos. For 2006, one of the things that's top of mind for our team, sustained, heightened market volatility. The good news is our investment team has experience in these types of volatile and bucking bull markets. Remember, an elevated volatility also means elevated opportunity for longer-term investors.

Historically, investors' biggest incremental returns come from investing in volatility is high, not low. So what does this mean to you and as investor? Keep following our investment content at Oak Harvest website and our YouTube channels. We'll be addressing more of our outlook over the next few weeks and tune into our live stream YouTube with Troy, Charles, and myself are our 2006 market outlook

on January 29th of next year. Investors, whether 2026 plays out as a bucking bull ride or something different, the entire Oak Harvest team is here for our clients, doing what we can to plan for you, your family's future, regardless of what stage you're at in your career or in your retirement. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed.

The views and opinions expressed herein may be. change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment, and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.