Stock Talk - 3 Stock Market Analysts to Pay Attention to When Navigating Investing and Sensationalist Forecasts

Episode Date: February 2, 2024

Is the Stock Market crashing? If you find yourself asking this question and getting hung up with anxiousness about the reliability of mainstream economic and market analyses, then this video is for you. Based on my long background in institutional money management, I'm going to share three invaluable resources I've referred to for navigating the markets amidst the overwhelming abundance of market research available today. Market Cycle Historian Larry Williams, Technical Research Strategist Steve Suttmeier from BAC Securities, and Stock Market Technician Rich Ross from Evercore ISI each bring a unique perspective and track record of accuracy to the table, offering insights grounded in historical data and technical analysis rather than sensationalist forecasts. I also go into the contributions of other notable analysts, emphasizing the importance of informed, rational decision-making in the investment landscape. When navigating investing, there's nothing more important than objective, research-driven insights over emotional speculation. #stockmarket #retirementinvesting #marketcycles About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired a plethora of financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®). Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money! Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free consultation: https://click2retire.com/Connect Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you — and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Investors, many clients and prospects of Oak Carvests. After watching investment content over the last few years, they say, Chris, you're very upfront about not finding much of value in the vast majority of economists, politicians, strategists, and TV personalities, takes on the economy and markets, versus actually running money and retirement savings for your clients. They ask, whose research do you find insightful and valuable that we might want to look into? This week's episode is just that. It's stock markets, technically speaking.

So the investment team at Oak Harvest largely comes from behemoth institutional money management backgrounds. We used to have access to pretty much every piece of sell-side research we could ask for including macro, micro, single-stock analysis, and derivative research. Nowadays, selling market research has become a billion-dollar industry in its own right. Investors, as an RAA, Oak Harvest, like most others, is resource-constrained, so we can't subscribe to everything. However, I want to point investors to three resources our team finds helpful to laying out probable forward moves in the markets. None of these resources appear weekly or daily on CNBC as CNBC contributors, which is code for we're getting paid or paying CNBC. None are labeled chartmasters or king of bonds as a way to try to hype their

opinions to others. All three of these strategists have been consistently right for at least five years. They've been right or wrong, but flexible and quick enough to reverse course and be of value when they recognize their prior views were wrong. The first one is a market cycle historian, the second, a combination cycle historian and technician, and the third, a straight-up technician, and one of the funniest personalities working in the otherwise dull personality-free industry. The first of these providers is a one-time annual fee. The second is research associated with a large bank and brokerage firm that is free when you open an account at the bank or brokerage.

And the third is an institutional strategist that we keep our eyes peeled on LinkedIn and other professional networks to see what he's saying. Let's start with stock market historian Larry Williams. There's a link to his website in the description below. I really trade in his 2024 forecast fee for service. Yes, investors, we've been a paying subscriber to his service. No, we've never gotten paid to promote him or his service. You've probably seen Larry before as he's a recurring guest on Jim Kramer's Mad Money

CNBC show appearing five to six times a year. Williams has created numerous market cycle forecasting indicators, including the Williams percent R, ultimate oscillator, and commitment of traders indices reports. Mr. Williams has also won the 1987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company. There's also a link to the description below. to his work at the height of the COVID-19 correction on March 17th, 2020, calling for an end to the bear market

in the coming significant rally. Contrary to the annual, market crashes coming crowd call or the purveyors of the end of the world doom, Mr. Williams' work is unemotional as based on historic data and reoccurring human behavior in financial markets. Even if you don't subscribe to his 2024 forecast, keep your eyes open for TV segments for new videos of his. that he releases most of the times free for you on YouTube.

The second strategist I absolutely love to follow is Steve Suttonyer, who's the technical research strategist at BAC securities, better known to us older investors as Merrill Lynch. Steve's work is for brokerage customers at BAC, and BAC has a fantastic research product and analysis. I find his work most compelling. Steve is a combination market historian and straight down the runway market technician.

The historian on him uses mass resources of the bank to crunch historical data of the markets and bull markets, fair markets, economic cycles, investor sentiment cycles, market volatility cycles, and even presidential election cycles. He releases his data in a forward timely manner to help investors look at events happening in the future rather than reporting on the past. Many of the time series I've referenced over the last five years have come largely from Steve's team at Merrill Lynch. Steve also has traditional chart technician skills and can present a view of the market that keeps it simple. As the saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words, is one of

our technicians' best friends. That phrase, and the phrase, price is truth, simply summarize a complicated world of being a CMT. That's a certified market technician. Finally, my third strategist, who's a must follow if one can find his research. This can be definitely challenging, as he's an institute, market technician for ISI Evercore. His name, Rich Ross, chief technician at Evercore ISI. A couple of things that make Rich's work unique. First, he's been right for quite some time. Second, he's been bullish on technology stocks in the market since late 2022 and rightly so. Thirdly, while other Evercore strategists have wavered back and forth or more highly promoted technicians like the Chartmaster on CBC have been consistently wrong and consistently

bearish now for years, Rich has stuck with what his charts are saying and stayed bullish, no flip-flopping. And finally, Rich is one of the funniest, wittiest, driest strategist I've ever come across in 30 years of investing. For example, here's Rich's recent chart of the horribly performing Chinese stock market, the Hangsang. This has been a horrible market for the last two years. It's been in a bear market. It's been a disaster absolutely and relatively since 2008, actually. As the Hangsang stock market approached its 2022 lows last week,

where it was make or break time, the index, the Chinese government launched a massive stimulus program trying to stimulate the economy and trying to shore up waning investor interest. They did so almost exactly where the market was at the same level two years ago, when, in technical jargon,

it was needed to make a double bottom to have any hope of rallying. Rich's headline for the Hangsang chart, the PBOC has a Bloomberg too, makes light of the notion that politicians in China most likely are acting and watching a chart of price action as everyone else in the world is trying to make the decision to make their stand and defend their markets from further collapse. I do want to give props to two other services and two other technicians I follow who are definitely unique and value added. The first is Rob Slimer, chief technician at RBC Bank, and the second is Avi Gives. who leads the Elevate Wave trader website. Both are unique in their services and approach to the markets.

If you have a chance, look around, try to find the research, check them out. That's it for this week, folks. Have fun. Technically speaking, a shout out to Larry Williams, Steve Sutmeyer, and Rich Ross for the resources, downplaying emotions, and in Ross's case, keeping it light and funny. We all know the investment business needs a laugh or two every once in a while. Investors, thank you for taking the time to watch. And have a blessed weekend and a fantastic new year. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created,

but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast should be considered as person. personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment, and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.