Stock Talk - AI Tech Stock Bubble? Stock Market Update, Friday October 24, 2025

Episode Date: October 24, 2025

Paul Tudor Jones recently said we’re in the “9th inning” of the AI tech stock bubble, the late stages of a market mania similar to 1999’s Dot-com peak. I don’t see it that way. In this week���s video, I break down why the data tells a different story, and why I believe we’re still early in the game, maybe the 3rd or 4th inning, not the 9th. We’ll compare today’s AI-driven market cycle to the Dot-com era, review historical S&P 500 seasonality, and discuss how current earnings, Fed policy, and market behavior may shape the next 12 to 18 months. If you’ve been following our series, you know we’ve been tracking this AI buildout story since mid-April’s V-bottom, and I’ll show you how the current rally continues to mirror the late ‘90s pattern almost perfectly.   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Okay, investors, maybe five or ten years for now. We'll look back and cry about that 21 trading days in September of 2025 as the ninth inning of the AI tech stock investment bubble, just like Paul Tudor Jones is recently suggested. Paul Tudor Jones has said that we are in late 1999 replicating near the end of the dot-com bubble. My view is I doubt that will be the case. I doubt we're in the ninth inning, as he suggested, and the party is good enough to hang around, but one should be looking for the exits very quickly. I doubt that's where we are. First off, I don't see the comparison to the third quarters during the 1998 through 2000.com run. The data says otherwise. In fact, the third quarter stock returns was negative in each of those years. In Paul Tudor Jones analogy, it's early fourth quarter

1999. I can't disagree more. In the summer of 1990, the S&P 500 was down. over minus six and a half percent, not up over seven and a half percent like we just were in the third quarter. Here's the seasonal table for the S&P 500 throughout the dot-com internet buildout for you. You can make your own decision. Paul Tudor Jones was one of the best traders in his day. However, I would argue that like most retired billionaire hedge fund managers, I've heard on financial TV for well over five to ten years, most of all their vice has been ill-timed or just flat out wrong. They don't trade the way they used to when they were making their four. fortunes. You've been following our videos. We've been discussing the dot-com internet build-out,

first AI build-out analogy for well over a year, and our team has been increasingly positive on it since the mid-April stock market v-bottom of this year. Others have been trying to scare you out by a comparison in a negative way about it being a bubble. My question to them is, if you're so good at spotting bubbles, why haven't you been long and investing in it, taking advantage of it as you're probably equally as good at getting people out on the other side? This might be a good. This might be the 10th video I've done on this subject the last five to six months. In our work, if you're making this analogy, or April 2025, when the SEP 500 was down minus 21% off its highs, corresponds to the long-term capital management lows in early October of 1998, when the S&P 500 was also down minus 21%.

Investors, using this as the timing overlay, which is accurately and almost precisely mirrored the dot-com rally would put you in the early April of 1999, say three to four more months to go in our initial V-bottom rally to more new all-time highs. You would be in the third or fourth inning of the game, not in the ninth inning looking to run for the exit. Would this make sense now? To me, the answer is yes. No one still gets in. Here's a longer-term overlay and a zoomed-out version of where we could go and where we could be in the future if we continue on this path. What could cause a true parabolic move in stocks farther out next year in 2006. That might mirror the second half in 1999, which was post-seventh-inning stretch into the ultimate top, which was in early

first quarter of 2000. Well, investors, I'm just guessing, but a new more dubbish Fed chair appointed by the President Trump next April or May would correspond almost exactly to the week when the last leg up on the dot-com run began. Recall the dot-com ran where it lasted. almost exactly 18 months from the long-term capital management bottom in October of 1998 to its top in the first quarter of 2000. But Chris, stocks move on both interest rates and earnings. In 2026, earnings can't support that kind of move is a comment I've heard a lot lately. Well, if you believe the quarterly earnings estimates from Goldman Sachs, it can. Investor, there's a table here from their quarterly S&P 500 earnings growth rates historically and next year for 2017.

investors recall that the overall S&P 500 index historically anticipates economic earnings and bottoms by troughing one to two quarters in advance of the economy. However, it doesn't anticipate market tops. Historically, the S&P 500 tops coincident with earnings growth rates. It hasn't historically peaked in advance of the economy in advance of earnings growth. The bottoms historically do not have extended or deep pullbacks on percent terms until, after the 10th or 11th month as you approach a year holding period for those investors who bought and held on for almost a year. That would be a decent top in the first quarter of 2020, had around 7,200. Subsequently, the market would sell off for a few months before putting in a

low right around when the new Fed chair is installed and then take off for the next four to six months in the summer of next year in 2006. Okay, so what could cause this? My best guess, is the new Fed chair would reinstate some form of QE that's quantitative easing again or yield curve control. This would suppress bond market volatility, keep interest rates low, and force investors to move their cash off the sidelines finally and ultimately create a rush into riskier assets using leverage. Of course, all this is just guessing and brainstorming about how the markets could continue to mirror the dot-com boom, but at a time earlier in the game and a move when you should be in the markets and still not fearing a bubble or a blow off top. Investors know that regardless

on the path for the economy and the financial markets in the next few months, the investment team at Oak Harvest will be here. Until next week, have a blessed weekend and know the Oak Carvest team is doing what we can to plan for you and your family's future, regardless of what stage you're at in your career or in your retirement. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized

investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell security. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results.