Stock Talk - AI vs Dot-Com: Repeating History? Stock Talk Update, Friday April 2, 2026

Episode Date: April 2, 2026

What if the AI boom isn’t another dot-com bubble at all, but the next great re-acceleration in markets? In this video, I break down the striking similarities and crucial differences between the 1999 dot-com capex cycle and today’s AI investment surge, including exploding data center demand, the rise of agentic AI, Nvidia’s role, private vs. public market risk, interest rates, and what all of it could mean for stocks, retirement portfolios, and long-term investors. I also explain why I believe we may be in the “7th inning stretch” of this AI cycle, where upside may still remain but risks are starting to build beneath the surface. If you want a clearer view of AI stocks, market cycles, investing strategy, and how history may be rhyming in 2026, this discussion will help you stay grounded in what’s real, not just what’s exciting.   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Investors, we've asked this question for almost a year now. Are we reliving the 1998 through 2000.com Kappex boom and internet and mobile internet buildout? Are we reliving that in the AI investment cycle, or is this something new and different? Investors, today, the AI boom feels a lot like it did to me back in the 1990s, and I had the opportunity to work in San Francisco and then manage money with Charles back in Houston during the dot-com run and stocks. Both cycles look and feel a bit similar with some twists. investors both periods of rapid capex investment some tech and infrastructure stocks soared with big promises about the future but underneath the surface this cycle is not exactly the same and these differences matter for you your portfolio and your retirement okay so let's compare them today we're going to compare one more time to very specific moments the stall and reacceleration phase of the dot com cycle which was the summer of 1999 second third quarter with the current training two quarters the fourth quarter of two thousand 25 in the first quarter of 2006 and the re-acceleration phase in AI today.

As far as stocks go, think of both periods as the seventh inning stretch. Not the beginning of the cycle, but it's likely not the end either. It's the point where momentum is strong. Many stocks and valuation paused, but some risk was starting to build. So let's compare the CAPEX. Back in 1999, companies were racing to build out the internet. Back then, it was fiber networks, it was telco infrastructure, and eventually the mobile internet. There were massive capacity being added, and it was ahead of real demand, ahead of the Amazon's, ahead of Netflix and streaming services, and ahead of most mobile telephone applications that were used today.

That summer, mid-1999, was a seventh inning stretch, but the real excess in equity markets came after that, into late first quarter 2000. In many ways, today looks eerily similar to that period, but it's fundamentally different. AI spending is not early stage buildout. We are three years into the launch of chat GPT, which was November of 2022. Right now, it's an acceleration driven by real existing usage and demand for compute. For systems driven by Nvidia and other semiconductor chips, what's that shift now? It's called the agentic AI shift. Here's what's just changed that matter investors don't yet see.

Parabolic AI chat growth in 2025 through 2023, when it all started, has recently gone exponential in the first quarter this year. Really, this has happened since OpenClaW app had its moment and it's rebranding on January 29th, 2006. This was a tipping point beyond the vibe coding moment last year. The AI is no longer just a tool. It's becoming agentic. So what does agentic mean? Agenic means this is systems that act on their own. They run queries. They make decisions. They give suggestions and execute tasks automatically. 24 hours a day, seven days a week. every day of the year if you need it this shift and that tipping point is driving explosive domain for computing power rapid expansion of data centers and most important real revenue growth in

applications at anthropic open AI in google's jemini platforms so investors unlike 1999 this is not build it in hope this is build it because it's already being used just as jenjuan wong founder of invidia he spent the better part of half of invidia's recent gtc event on calling open claw the most popular the most successful open source project in the history of humanity. This is definitely the next chatGBT, the CEO asserted. What is OpenClaw investors? OpenCla is an open source, autonomous AI agent platform that goes beyond traditional chatbots. Instead of answering questions, these agents can complete tasks, make decisions,

and take actions with minimal input from humans and from users. Investors, that's a tipping point. So what's different this time? There's a difference between public and private markets this time. Now, this is one of the biggest differences I can see. Most investors are missing this. In 1999, capital flowed through public markets through IPOs, which served, speculations spread quickly, and retail investors carried much of the risk.

Charles and I reminisce that we would spend most days in three to five IPO roadshows with companies and bankers. Fast forward to 2006, the most important AI companies are still private. Open AI, Anthropic, Bite Dance in China. Their funding comes from large institutions, strategic partners, and other big tech platforms, not from retail investors, Morgan Stanley, or Goldman Sachs. So investors, the structure is different. Back in 1999, a long, long time ago, when I was early in my career, the risk was largely public. Today, much of the risk is still privately ill. That doesn't remove risk, but it does change where it sits. Investors, let's go look at

the economic backdrop. Let's go, back to the broader economy then. 1999 economic growth was strong. The Federal Reserve was tightening interest rates, but it was also creating special liquidity anticipation of the potential Y2K disruptions in 1999 and 2000. Bester, today growth is steady,

and it was about to accelerate in the second through fourth quarter. Inflation was about to peak around 3.5% and come down, and the Fed is on hold, but should be leaning to ease with the new Fed chair by mid-year. So, as far as financial markets are concerned,

they do look familiar, 1999 through 1996. In both periods, leadership was concentrated in technology, companies, and sectors driving big index returns. But back then, energy stocks did okay as well. But here's a key distinction. In 1999, many companies had no earnings. They traded on multiples of revenue. They traded on multiples of clicks, web page views, or as it's known today, or back then, eyeballs. And investors, if they did have earnings, they traded at 50 times 100.

times earnings. Seeing the valuation of Cisco back in the day and compare it to Nvidia nowadays. Many valuations back then were based on hope. Today, market leaders are highly profitable generating real cash flow and seeing real earnings acceleration with AI demand. Yes, I have to admit many are now free cash flow negative given their huge Kappex spends and moving from asset light to more asset heavity. That is a major change today. So the risk today is not no earnings, the risk is paying too much for very good current earnings and uncertain future earnings and uncertain marginal return on invested capital. Okay, so let's go ahead and look at interest rates. Interest rates often decide how these cycles end. In 1999, rates were rising and liquidity was tightening.

This pressure and too much speculation eventually broke the market. Today, interest, rates are also rising, but it's on inflation concerns. Hopefully, liquidity improves because financial conditions have tightened in March on the back of the war in Iran. A new Fed chair can help extend the cycle, but it doesn't eliminate risk. So right now, where are we? It looks like the seventh inning analogy holds true. A little history lesson and returned to our much chaired

SNP 500 overlay. Here's the updated chart. Remember, no guarantees. Festers, think back to 1999. Midyear was the seventh inning stretch. Market stalled for about six months after a V-bottom rally following the strong seven. month rally post long-term capital management recovery in October 1998. After the third quarter 99,

the market kept rising before peaking in very late, first quarter 2000. Fast forward to today. Eight fourth quarter, 2025, early, first quarter, 2006 also looks and feels like the seventh inning, which could tell you two things. There is still likely upside in stock markets, but the risk is increasing to the economy, particularly with the recent Iran oil, energy, and supply chain. shocks and potential risks to stocks and earnings might be beginning to build beneath the surface. What are the leading groups back then, the growth of the cyclical semi-equipment industry? Once again, here's that overlay updated. We've shared this with you before.

It looks like the seventh inning stretch right before orders for AI inference accelerate in the first through fourth quarters of this year. So investors, with that, what are the main takeaways? First, this is not 1999, although it is rhyming a lot. The foundation of the AI Cap-X cycle profits in existing demand is much stronger today, and valuations are much lower. Second, while we are not early in an economic expansion due to a genetic tipping point, we are likely entering the reacceleration phase, which should be good for many stocks.

Third and finally, the structure of risk is different now. In 1999, it was in public markets and widespread. Today, much of it remains in the private markets and is concentrated. Investors, we know history doesn't exactly repeat. But given this, investors, we know history doesn't exactly repeat. But given humans repeat many past behaviors and studying behavioral finance, it often rhymes.

Right now, we're still seeing echoes of 1999 with a stronger foundation underneath and just exiting the seventh ending stretch. Investors, stay discipline, stay diversified, and focus on what's real, not what's just exciting. Whether your priority is growth, income, or a combination of both, our team is here to help you plan for your family's financial future, you're where you're at, in your career, or in your retirement journey. Have a great

Easter weekend. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance. is not indicative of future results.