Stock Talk - Go Time: Stock Talk Update, Friday March 13, 2026

Episode Date: March 13, 2026

I walk through what’s really happening in the market right now after months of volatility, geopolitical headlines, and sideways movement in the S&P 500. In this update, I revisit the two headwinds and two tailwinds we outlined in our 2026 outlook and explain how rising inflation expectations, volatility tied to the presidential cycle, and a six-month market pause may be setting the stage for the next phase of the bull market. I also break down the latest S&P 500 earnings estimates, historical market behavior, and a fascinating comparison between today’s AI-driven cycle and the late-1990s tech boom. While no market outlook is certain, understanding how earnings growth, sentiment, and historical patterns interact may help investors stay disciplined and focused on long-term planning.   Link to FactSet's earnings commentary: https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-february-13-2026   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Okay, investors, thanks for rejoining me. I took last week off for a couple days of vacation. So this week, the question is, is it go time? The end of the seventh inning stretch. So is the market finally ready to move higher again? After months of volatility, geopolitical headlines and sideways trading, many investors are asking the same question, what comes next for stocks? No Carvis, our 2006 outlook was titled, It's Harder Being a Bull Rider in some years. In that report, we outlined two headwinds and two tailwinds for stocks in 2006. Now that we're in, It's worth asking the question how many of those themes are actually playing out the first head one we discussed for the first half Rise and inflation expectations early in the year viewers please go check the recording of our Market Outlook summit highlights if you doubt us now

Did we predict an invasion involving Iran? No, of course we did But what we did do is forecast an up rise in inflation break event expectations right in the time frame were highlighted Take a look at the chart here's the one-year inflation break-even chart you can see the move high by the bond market. Inflation expectations have moved up and to the right. However, the pattern is now showing what looks like a very normal seasonal peak right around the second or third week of March. So from a market narrative perspective, inflation fear box has already been checked.

The development has played out as our team had thought. Now let's move on to the second head win we outlined for the year. 2006 is a second year presidential election cycle. Historically, midterm election years tend to deliver positive returns overall. but they often come with higher volatility and more exaggerated seasonal swangs. Let's see if we've done that. Let's look at the chart. Here's the VIX index, which many investors use as a proxy for stock market volatility, covering the period from the fourth quarter of last year into the first quarter of this year. During the recent Iran war headlines, the VIX index briefly jumped from 15 to over 30, doubling from its previous levels. So again, we expected a volatility spike in the first half of the year, which has now occurred.

that's another box that's checked, bringing us to the big question investors should be asking. With inflation fears and volatility spikes already hitting the markets, where does the S&P stand today? And where might it go in the future? The answer may surprise many investors. So the S&P 500 is basically at the same level where it peaked in late October and early November of last year about four and a half months ago. If you zoom out even farther, the picture becomes clearer. Go back to the end of the third quarter of last year in 2025 after a V-Bond will in early April, the market surged higher in a seven-month rally with very few meaningful pullbacks. But if the last two quarters, the S&P 500 has been essentially

flat, a big zero. Investors, now that nowhere action the S&P 500 the last six months might frustrate many of you, but it's actually something very common during ongoing bull markets. Periods like this often happen after sharp V-bond and recoveries and extended rallies. Markets need time to digest gains. To long-time bears or investors who constantly call for a top, this digestion can sometimes look like indigestion. But our team believes we're right now we're seeing is far more likely to be digestion than indigestion. In fact, this may represent the final stage of what we've described for months as the seventh inning stretch in this market cycle. Yes, we're finally suggesting that the market may be closer

to the end of this two-quarter pause than the beginning. This raises the odds the S&P 500 could re-accelerate up in the second quarter and third quarters of this year. So what gives us confidence in this outlook? The answer? Earnings. More specifically, S&P 500 earnings and its growth rate. Let's take a look at the data from FactsSett. Here's an updated quarterly table from FACC set showing 2026 S&P 500 earnings per share on a quarterly basis. Now investors, these estimates will change. They always do, but what matters most for investors in the direction and the growth trend. If you're looking for a must-read research source, FACSET's earnings commentary is one of the better free ones out there.

Here's a link to their reports. According to FactsSet, data, the earnings outlet currently looks like this. First quarter, 2026, earnings growth, about 11.5% and year-over-year revenue growth, roughly, 9.2%. But the real story happens as we move deeper into the year. Rearnings growth is expected to accelerate significantly. Current estimates show second quarter growth of about 15.5%. Third quarter growth, 16 and a half. And fourth quarter growth, still 15 and a half percent-ish growth on the year. That would bring the full year earnings growth rate to around 15%. Historically, bull markets rarely end

before earnings progressions like this are delivered. Markets peak usually occur close to the point where earnings growth peaks, not quarters in advance. That's very different from market bottoms, which often happen for six or months more before fundamentals on earnings begin improving. Another question we often get from viewers relates to our earlier research comparing the late 1990s.com cycle

to today's AI-driven investment cycle. Both periods experience a minus 20, percent event-driven decline before the move up. So how does today's market compare to that historical cycle with our current churning behavior the last four to six months? Let's look at the overlay. Here's the SMPI 500 then first now an updated chart what we've been sharing for months. Now let me show you two additional charts that continue to stand out to me. They're the semiconductor equipment indexes comparing the late 1990s technology cycle to today. This is one of the most volatile cap X heavy growth industry.

our stock markets have. I've shown these charts before and I still haven't heard a convincing explanation. First, look at the Semiconductor equipment index following the long-term capital management minus 21% sell-off in the S&P 500 in the lows of October 1998. What we saw back then was a 205-day rally above the 200-day moving average, beginning with a breakout and continuing to the next reacceleration pivot point up. The index gained roughly 142% at its peak before pulling back to about 100% gain and then re-accelerating higher for another seven months or so. So let's fast forward now to the AI cycle. After last year's minus 21% S&P 500 decline under the tariff tantrum lows,

we saw another V-bottom rally. Here's the chart, the Semiconductor Equipment Index over that period. Investors, the similarities are remarkable. About 205 to 208 training days and a gain of roughly 142%. pullback back towards 100% before the next upward pivot. And investors, remember, this is happening in an index that represents very different companies than it did 30 years ago. Yet, the market's behavior looks almost identical in percentage returns and in timing. That kind of historical symmetry is hard for me to ignore.

This cycle should continue on the same path. The pause that refreshes should be ending. So investors, so far, the first quarter of 2026 has been a sloppy, choppy environment for the S&P 500. This is what our investment team had expected entering the year. The good news is that we may finally approaching the end of this sloppy, choppy phase and more than six months of sideways movement, the market could soon enter a more constructive period supported by earnings growth expected to come in the second and third quarters of the year. Investors often say they want to buy a dip, but when the uncertainty hits, whether it's geopolitics,

inflation, or headline risks, many investors hesitate. Investors, the reason why the title of this week's piece is, go time, is because several of our indicators are now showing signs of peak negativity, suggesting the market may soon pivot back towards ultimately drives long-term performance, earnings, and earnings growth. Our guidance that O'Carvis remains the same. Stay disciplined, stay diversified, stay focused on your long-term objectives. Whether your priority is growth, income, or a combination of both,

our investment team here is here to help you in your family plan for your financial future, no matter where you're at in your career or in your retirement journey. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results

may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results.