Stock Talk - Keep Your Eyes on The Prize: Stock Talk Update, Friday May 1, 2026

Episode Date: May 1, 2026

In this Stock Talk, I bring the focus back to what has historically mattered most for stock prices over time: earnings. While headlines, geopolitics, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy can create short-term volatility, I walk through current FactSet earnings data showing that many S&P 500 companies are reporting positive earnings and revenue surprises, profit margins remain strong, and leadership is concentrated in areas like technology, materials, financials, and industrials. I also explain why forward earnings estimates may suggest continued acceleration in revenue and EPS growth through 2026, while reminding investors that estimates can change and should not be treated as guarantees. The key takeaway is simple: in uncertain markets, it may help to stay disciplined, diversified, and focused on the underlying fundamentals that can drive long-term stock performance.   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Okay, investors, today we want to bring you back to what drives stock prices over time. What's that? It's earnings. Not headlines, not geopolitics, not oil, not even the Federal Reserve. It's earnings. Now, all the reference data here is available for free on FACSET's website. They have one of the best sources for decades on earnings data. So that's why we're going to use it. So investors, stock prices follow earnings over time. And right now, earnings are not only rising, but they're also accelerating. right now corporate America is delivering for shareholders let's see where and how first off earning scorecard for the first quarter it's strong and getting stronger this video was filmed right before midweek's s mc 500 earning tsunami and at that point for the first quarter with 28% of the s mp 500 reporting 84% of the smp 500 reported a positive earning surprise and 81% of the smp 500 companies reported a positive revenue upside once again investors those are big numbers 84% of companies beating earnings 81% beating revenue earnings surprised average positive 12.3% the S&P 500 earnings growth rate was 15.1% at the time of this which is the six

straight double-digit quarter so investors the bottom line this is a strong revenue and earnings economic cycle even if the reported government GDP numbers don't look like it. Second point, profit margins are at record levels, which is a good thing for shareholders. Net margins 13.4%. That's the highest in over 15 years. Technology margins are near 29%, and that's even after the huge and accelerating AI spending. And margins are still trending up. So the bottom line, companies are becoming more efficient, doing more with less. And we might not like this if someone looking for a new job out of college or worse yet,

someone just laid off from a tech job. But as a shareholder, we love this. We love this kind of margin trend. So third point, sector leadership. Where's the strength in the market? The leaders, technology, up 46 percent, materials, 33 percent, financials, 20 percent. Industrials, mid-teens. The laggard so far with miscarriage.

This is energy and health care down minus 9%. This is still an AI industrial capex cycle underneath the surface. So the bottom line, sector leadership is strong. It's generally concentrated in growth in cyclical areas of the economy. The negative sign in front of the energy sector might surprise many, but it's most likely because most energy firms' earnings revisions lagged the commodity price by a few quarters, maybe one or two even. So the final point. As far as earnings, there's an acceleration ahead. I will never claim that these S&P 500 earnings estimates will be both accurate and precise as we progress through the rest of the year in 2006. But the markets are most concerned about the direction and magnitude of earnings. Are things getting better or worse? Is it growing faster or slower? For the first quarter, S&P 500s are reporting year-over-year growth rates in the 15.1% as I previously said, your overgrowth of revenue 10.3%.

Those are huge numbers. For the second quarter, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 20.6% and revenue growth of 10.7%. Then for the third quarter, earnings growth 22.7% and revenue growth 9.5. Finally, way out there in the fourth quarter, projection 20.4% in earnings and revenue 9.1%. That's a first through third quarter acceleration in earnings and almost in revenue and full year growth of 18.5% in earnings. The bottom line investors, both revenue and earnings growth are set to accelerate in the next few quarters at 2006. In closing, investors, we know it's tough to do nothing in turbulent geopolitical times, but investors, it's best to stay focused on what matters most to stocks over time.

What's that? it's earnings and earnings growth rates, and they are just important. They're almost everything over the long term. For now, stay disciplined, stay diversified. Focus on what's real, not just what's exciting. Investors, whether your priority is growth, income, or a combination of both, the Oak Harvest team is here to help you plan for your financial future no matter where you're at in your career or in your retirement journey. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not

guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell security. indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results.