Stock Talk - Our Song Remains the Same: Stock Market Update, Friday November 7, 2025

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

Today I’m blending a little classic rock with market insight to cut through the noise of bearish headlines and bubble talk. You’ll hear why I don’t agree with comparisons to the late ’90s, what the data actually says about this V-bottom rally, and why history shows strength, not weakness, when markets stay over key moving averages. By the end, you’ll walk away with a clearer, fact-based perspective on where we are in this bull market and why our team at Oak Harvest still has “a whole lotta love” for stocks heading into 2026.   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Okay, investors, I was born in 1965, and classic rock is something I love. 1970s, 1980s, rocks bands, but there's a special place in my heart for Led Zeppelin. Yes, the iconic rock band led by Robert Plant, Jimmy Page, John Bonham, and John Paul Jones. Nope, not the retired legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones, who we called out many times the last five years for being chronically misguided in the direction and timing of his stock market calls. So Paul Tudor Jones has said that we were in late 1999 replicating the near end of the dot-com bubble. Investors, my view, I doubt that's the case. I doubt we're in the ninth inning, as he suggested, and the party is good enough to hang around,

but one should be looking quickly for the exits. We've covered this material a couple times over the last six months. Lately, there's been quite a lot of negative market talk about the market being overbought and breadth deteriorating. or many bears discussing a dire, their term, reduction in bank liquidity. I mean, every few weeks the bears have tried to latch on to these and other so-called critical topics to explain why the end is near for this bull market and for the V Bottom rally. Even though I can't find any of them who said by seven months ago at 5100 on the S&P 500 during the Trump tariff tantrum. This rally has left most bears and many hesitant investors dazed and confused.

Our team has been here since mid-April with a whole lot of love for our clients, believing in the rally as it has climbed a venerable stairway to heaven to 6850 at the end of October. Up here, bears are trying to convince you that it is a misty mountain top in the market. While our work does suggest there can be more turbulence in November than in the last six months, with the possibility of retesting both the 50-day rising average and the 100-day moving average, our song remains the same at O'Carvis. That is, it's been a V-bottom since April, and a bull market in V-bottoms historically don't give investors much of a buying opportunity for month 10 or 11. That the final celebration day in this glorious up move historically

wouldn't come until we are higher into the first quarter of 2006, call it early February at 7200 or higher. We've laid out this target and timing a multiple of times over the last six months, and many called it unrealistic for months. Now, at 6850-ish, it still seems like the market's destiny based on previous data is higher. Even now, with the market's trading above its 50-day moving average for over 125 days, bears are loud, and many investors remain skeptical and hesitant. Just look at recent bearish AAI-I-S sentiment numbers. Bears decry, we are over-bought.

However, the data and history says, Overbought can stay overbought for a longer time, and it's an indicator of market strength, but weakness. Here's the historical data on the rarity of the S&P 500 training above its 50-day moving average for 125 days consecutively. Historically, 9 out of 10 times this has happened. The market has been positive with returns the next three months averaging 5.6%. A return of 5.6% from 6840, our closing price as of this was written, would get you, yes, 7,200 and early February of next year. For now, regardless of what might be

a November of CHOP, investors, our song remains the same, and we're still have a whole lot of love for the overall S&P 500 and for stocks into year-end and end to early 2006. Investors know that regardless of the path of the economy and financial markets in the next few months, investment team at Oak Harvest will be here. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast, expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice.

Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment, and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.