Stock Talk - Stock Market Update, Friday July 18, 2025: NOTHING but NET

Episode Date: July 21, 2025

In this week’s video, I walk you through why we believed the April lows marked the bottom for stocks this year—and how the market’s powerful V-bottom rally played out almost exactly as we anticipated. I’ll share what history tells us about July’s bullish tendencies, why the current market resembles late 1998 more than peak Dot-com, and what you can expect in the weeks ahead. But before you get swept up in the optimism, I’ll explain why the phrase “Nothing but Net” is your caution flag—and what past data says about stock performance between now and October. If you’re serious about staying ahead of the curve and investing with intention, this is one you won’t want to miss.   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free consultation: https://click2retire.com/Connect   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Investors, if you've been following Oak Harvest and our investment commentary for any time, let alone for the last five years, we've been posting publicly. It's safe to say you're aware of my love of the study of the stock market, economic cycles, and market history, including presidential cycles and seasonal trading behavior in the stock markets. Why do these things keep working more often than not? Most likely, because investors are creatures of habit and when certain external stimuli hit, they repeat their emotional behaviors and investment actions in civil.

similar fashions time and time again. The Oak Carvist investment team had been discussing the likely V-bottom in stocks since mid to late April, well before the historic rally took hold, while many others were talking doom and crashes, we discussed for weeks in our videos. Looking back, April 7th was what we thought was the low for the overall S&P 500 index in US stocks, most likely for the rest of 2025 X the unforecastable Black Swan event. the minus 20% bare market correction was largely invent-induced by President Trump's unforeseen tariff policies.

X, the great financial crisis in 2007-8, and the popping of the speculative dot-com bubble frenzy in 2000-2001, which did proceed longer and deeper recessions. History said enough damage had been done, and we would V-bottom in similar fashion as the V-bottoms in the last 20 to 30 years. And investors, the real good news here, this V-bottom happened without the Federal Reserve intervention and interest rate is cutting. More Fed cuts are in front of us. Think of that, investors. We're at marginal new all-time highs in stocks, and the Fed is paused. For months, we've discussed how the charts in the economy look remarkably similar to the period that was

mid-com, not peak.com, back in late 1998. The period in October 98, bare market sell-off was caused by an event hedge fund long-term capital blowing up. After three months, 20% rally, a few Strategists have caught on to this and are ratcheting back up their 2025 S&P 500 targets, just as we said they would two months ago and are now preaching bullish upside numbers for the rest of the year. Just last week, with July starting, I was flooded with bullish pieces written largely by those who just missed the V-bottom rally, discussing the wonderfully positive seasonal tendencies of July to be the second best-performing month of the year. I'm here to bring you good news and bad news. First, the good news. Yes, investors, there is a Santa Claus, and besides late in the year, historically, he also comes in July in the stock markets.

Here's the data table showing the monthly seasonality of the S&P 500 over the last 15 years. This is data from Bloomberg, but most data sources should show the same thing. Historically, July is the second best month of year returns for stocks. Lacking behind only November. Here's the same seasonality chart using only the last five years since the COVID lows. The numbers sum and are averaged slightly differently, but, But the message and the outcomes have been the same over the last five years. November has been on average, the best month of the year for stocks, with July only slightly

behind in absolute returns. Hooray, let's rejoice. Now that we've rallied over 20% in three months, let's get bullish, let's get long, and if you're a trader, let's get margined and swing for the fence, right? No, detect my sarcasm. Why? Because the reason behind this week's title, nothing but net, I love college basketball, playing basketball when I was younger. I watched the NCAA basketball tournament every year. And yes,

I had a pretty good jump shot back in the day, but there are very few who need a six-foot-two slow guy who can't jump but can shoot from the outside. Even 40 years ago. Not a lot of demand for that skill. Notice the bold words in the title. Nothing and net. Why? Because as much as you might be hearing about the bullish trading window of July, which now has about nine trading days left, you haven't been told that historically, if you walked away now and came back in early October, you would miss nothing from a total return market perspective. Nothing net. In fact, net historically, you'd lose money between the end of July and the first few weeks of October. Instead of getting FOMO or fear of missing out here, how about taking a deep breath and exhaling

and slowing down and thinking, hmm, if August and early October tend to be stalled at best and down most years, what do I want to wait for and buy on a third quarter slowdown? Is it caused by a minor uptick in inflation from tariffs or a slowdown in the real economy due to a pause and demand after a pull forward of inventory building and pull forward of buying in front of the tariffs? What stocks and groups would I want to own on the other side of a late summer and early fall downturn? Hence, nothing but net for this week's title. Investors, the pattern does remain bullish. And yes, historically, July is one of the better returning months for the S&P 500, with earnings and buybacks just around the corner. Up and to the right is good. New all-time highs

are not bearish historically. That said, after rallying for almost three months off the April lows, do not expect the pace and percentage gains of stocks to continue at this rate. Expect the pace to slow. Investors, we do expect a normal late summer pullback in the markets, but investors, you most likely won't see those low levels of April again for quite some time, if at all, this year. Many institutions got way too barished near the lows in April and de-risk, and they're already way behind the performance curve for the year. As this plays out, our team has stuck with our 2025-year-on target of 6,600, even as stocks sold off into April, and most strategists slashed their targets from over this number to the low 5,000s, and now guess what? They're raising those

targets once again. Does this mean that you shouldn't add to stock? particularly if you're younger and in saving mode and accumulation phase? No. Why? Because rarely can you pick the absolute level in both price and time on both the buy, the sell, and the buyside once again, particularly in gross stocks, as we've covered in prior videos. New all-time highs are not bearish. Investors, regardless of the path for the economy and the financial markets in the next few months, the investment team here at Oak Carvis will be here, crewing the ship and adjusting our models where we can. Until next week, have a blanche. weekend and know that the Oak Harvest team is doing what we can to plan for you and your

family's future, regardless of what stage you're at in your career or in your retirement. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.

Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment, and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results.