Stock Talk - The Trouble with Harry Dent, Robert Kiyosaki, Jeremy Grantham: Part 2, 3, 4, 5...

Starting point is 00:00:00 Investors, nearly exactly a year ago to the day, I released what would become my most watched Stock Talk YouTube video to date. Its title, The Trouble with Harry Dent, Robert Kiyosaki, Naseem Talib, Fear Sales, Crash of a Lifetime. Put a link to that video in the description below. It has over 6,500 views. Its message, fear, yep, you heard that right. Fear, Fear, and the looming crash of a lifetime for 2024

Starting point is 00:00:29 as this group of soothsayers called it late-23 and early 2024. Investors, the Trouble with Harry is a title of a great Alfred Hitchcock black comedy, and unlike the horrific market calls of Harry Dent, it's that fear sells. Once upon a time, in a quiet little town, some very respectable people got into The Trouble with Harry. Like clockwork at the start of 2024, renowned, and I use that term carefully, Demographic economist Harry Dent was out with his now-near-exact copy of his annual end of the world as upon us, the stock market will crash forecast for 2024. Last year's remake was titled Crash of a Lifetime Coming in 2024.

Starting point is 00:01:15 Okay, investors, what did the stock market and the S&P 500 index do in 2024? Well, it gained over positive 23% in price appreciation and nearly 25% in total return, including DeVosurface. Hei has been so confidently wrong for over a decade now that even in June of 2004, he quadrupled down on a market crash, predicting a minus 98-98 crash in Nvidia and a minus 92% drop in the NASDAQ. Well after this call, the SP500 rose another 11% while Nvidia gained about 15% post-June into the end of the year. Investors, why do I keep hearing the same thing from Mr. Dent?

Starting point is 00:01:59 or Rich Dad, Poor Dad, Robert Kayasaki, or Mr. Black Swan, Nassim Talib, or Jeremy Grantham, I've been counting wrong for 15 years, year after year, largely because Peribere stock market appearances on TV bring in Baby Boomer TV viewers, which drive advertising dollars. Dumes Day Economic and Black Swan stock market calls bring in views on social media and click-throughs from nearly retired, semi-retired, or just always fearful investors driving as a lot of. advertising dollars to social networks. Investors remember the lyrics to Don Henley's hit song, Dirty Laundry. Hugh could have substituted almost any phrase in the financial markets to his lyrics, and the songs would ring true today. People like watching train wrecks and fear sells. It sells often,

Starting point is 00:03:06 and it sells well. Selling fear is an outright moneymaker. There's a group of RIAs who will remain unmentioned here whose entire shtick is selling and preaching fear. Most often, the purveyors a doom-gloom and the end-of-the-world forecast end up making far more money than those individuals following their advice. At the end of the day, we keep hearing from these same individuals who almost never actually manage money for a living, but rather sell books and newsletter subscriptions, Harry Dents, the Robert Kiyosaki's of Rich Dad, Poor Dad fame, because those services are not regulated by the SEC or other investment supervisors. We don't keep hearing about them because their forecasts have proven omniscient, but rather because they have personality and at the end of the day,

Starting point is 00:03:50 fear sells, particularly fear in the financial markets. Once again, I'm going to pick on Harry Dent and his forecasting ability for the last 20 plus years. Why? Because he's the gift that keeps giving. And for a short time, I was one of a group of portfolio managers running the money early in the launch of the long now defunct AIMDent Demographic Fund in 1999. Quite the opposite of one viewers previous comment on nothing to see here, he's just ranting, I had personal first-hand experience with dense, thematic, demographically driven market calls, and his stock picking ability. So far, 2025 is about 10 days old, and I've yet to see Harry's prediction for the year, but wait for it, it's coming, more doom for boomers. And I say this, because I've surveyed many

Starting point is 00:04:33 people under the age of 40, and they have zero idea who Harry Dent is, and how consistently wrongly he's been and self-promoting he is. Even after decades of being early, that's code for being wrong, folks, calling for a crash of a lifetime, he remains near the top of the list of Dumers that our clients who are over 50 and at or near retirement seem to ask about time and time again, regardless of how wrong he's been. It's easily to do a timeline Google search and see for yourself while loudly and confidently broadcasting in books on TV and elsewhere how poorly Mr. Dent's forecasts have been. or you can read from Roger Woller's research done in his December 2021 article,

Starting point is 00:05:15 Harry Dent's stock market economic predictions, 1999 through 2021. How'd they turn out? I put a link in the great article in the description below. A quick summary of Mr. Dent's last 25 years and Mr. Woller's articles as follows. Mr. Dent, October 1999, Mr. Dent releases the roaring 2000s, building the wealth and lifestyle you desired in the greatest boom in history. Dent predicted that the stock market would experience a significant boom during the 2000s. Harry predicted that the Dow would hit 35,000 in the upcoming decade back then,

Starting point is 00:05:48 based largely on his economic specialty and demographic changes, citing the baby boomer generation reaching their savings window for his optimism. At the time, the Dow was trading around 11,000. And guess what happened? The Dow peaked at just under 12,000 on January 14, 2000, and went absolutely nowhere, with very high volatility for the next 10 years. 2000 didn't enter in the roaring 20s as Mr. Dent surmised, but instead the lost decade of no stock returns net. Mr. Dent in 2006 published a similarly optimistic view titled The Next Great Bubble Boom, How to Profit from the Great Boom in history.

Starting point is 00:06:26 If you followed his advice, you did have a very good 18-month run in the markets before the onset of the great financial crisis started to brew in mid-2007, before the market indeed crashed in the second half of 2008. in the first quarter of 2009, ending up down over minus 50% before it was over. So twice burned being too optimistic about the economy in the markets, Mr. Dent did a 180-degree turn and published his next book. What's that title? The Great Depression ahead. How to prosper and the crash.

Starting point is 00:06:59 What was the date in that? December 2008. Folks, this could be Mr. Dent's worst call in the last 25 years, and since that year, the end of 2008, we've seen the returns in the SB 500, over 586%, or about 12.8% per year, compounded without dividends. More recent Harry Dent articles and headlines. December 2016, in the wake of Donald Trump being elected president for the first time, Mr. Dent predicted a crash of the Dow to 3,000 or 5,000 on CNBC. As of this writing, the beginning of Trump 2.0, the Dow is up about 148% or 11.9% per year since the November 2016 election, and that's without dividends.

Starting point is 00:07:44 March of 2021, Mr. Dent climbed further out on a limb, calling both price and time for his coming crash. Investors, this is something few ever do. It's like Babe Ruth calling a shot and pointing before hitting a home run, as it's quite difficult, and almost everyone advises against trying to do it. His outlook, the market would drop over minus 45% by the end of June 2021, said Dent, making the great financial crisis look like a cakewalk. Swing and another big miss by Harry. But Harry was unflustered and tripled down in July of 2021, calling for equities to fall by

Starting point is 00:08:20 minus 80% before Thanksgiving. Why not? Didn't get the earlier call right four months ago. Haven't been right in 15 years, but go all in with your money. Get out now. And what happened? The market went on to make major new all-time high near S&P 500, 4,800 into year-end 2021. Unflustered near all-time highs, Harry once again called for the biggest stock market crash of our lifetime to hit in 2022. And well, investors, as luck would have it, he did get a downward move in stocks that mimics a recession, minus 35% in real terms.

Starting point is 00:08:54 So after almost 20 years of being consistently wrong, Mr. Dent did hit a ground road double to deep right. field in the first half of 2022. Unfortunately for investors following Mr. Dent's advice, he doubled down in 2023 predicting both a recession in 2023 and another big downwave in stocks for the year. Dent predicted that cryptocurrencies in general would be the hardest hit assets in 2023. Folks, wrong on all accounts. Bitcoin rallied well over 200% in 2023. That's not a typo investors, 200% and the S&P 500 have rallied over 20%. Of course, many other financial soothsayers also got 2023 wrong, either the economy or stocks, or both wrong, like Mr. Dent. For those investors who feel compelled to listen to Mr. Dent, Robert Kiyosaki, Jeremy Grantham, or a long list of retired billionaire

Starting point is 00:09:48 hedge fund managers on TV, what do I think about it? I think you need to find a new hobby, or at least start listening to someone who's been at least consistently close to right on the markets over time. While those on the aforementioned list are highly intelligent, there are financial goals and objectives most likely do not align with yours. Mr. Dent is a great salesman and a great self-promoter, but he's not someone the investment public should be listening to for financial advice. That's the trouble with Harry and others like him, like Robert Kiyosaki. They're not fiduciaries and as such are not required to put investors' interests first. Rather, they can put their own self-interest, be it in book sales, New York.

Starting point is 00:10:28 newsletter subscription or clicks and add revenues first. We will get a recession in the future, yes. We will get another financial crisis, most likely in my lifetime. Dodd say yes. I'm sorry, Janet Yellen. You're likely to be wrong on that one. But the likes of Harry Dent and Robert Kiyosaki are not the ones that are likely to call them both in price and time, which is what would matter for your money.

Starting point is 00:10:51 For now, what do we see for 2025? Folks, we see more of the old normal that started in 2023. as we discussed back then and throughout last year, 2004. What's that? Slow growth, moderate to declining inflation, continuation of the bull market and stocks, and a soft landing in the U.S. economy for 2025, albeit with an uptick and volatility,

Starting point is 00:11:14 likely in the first half of the year. For now, we can get to 6660 on the S&P 500 in 2025 with some upside to that number, should their earnings for the second half of the year is surprised at the upside. The biggest possible earnings upside for 2025, would come from the US dollar peaking and heading lower as it did in 2017 under Trump 1.0, thus bolstering many S&P 500 multinational companies' earnings that have badly lagged in 2024

Starting point is 00:11:42 on slower unit growth, weaker pricing, and a strong U.S. dollar throughout the second half of the year. For myself, from Charles and the rest of the Oak Harvest team, have a blessed weekend and remember to join us and our YouTube live stream January 23rd at 630 p.m. Central for our 2025 first half market outlook. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed.

Starting point is 00:12:19 The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you and nothing in this podcast. should be considered as personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. Thank you.

Stock Talk - The Trouble with Harry Dent, Robert Kiyosaki, Jeremy Grantham: Part 2, 3, 4, 5...

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.