Stock Talk - “This Time It’s Different… Or Not?” Stock Talk Update, Friday April 17, 2026

Starting point is 00:00:00 Investors, if you watch markets over the years, you've heard this phrase time and time again. This time, it's different. Today, the headlines may feel heavier than in the past. We're talking about war, oil spikes, political uncertainty, and AI disruption. May feel different. That said, investing on one's feelings and emotions is usually really bad recipe for outcomes. Investors, is it actually different, or does it just feel this way? Are you possibly letting your emotions drive your decisions?

Starting point is 00:00:28 I'm going to walk through the data in this episode. The markets price and certainty quickly, albeit not perfectly, but efficiently over time. War headlines feel very extreme, but markets most often adjusts faster than one expects. Short-term volatility is normal. Long-term returns follow earnings, innovation, and interest rates. Every stock market correction has a new reason, but the pattern more than often repeats. War and markets. Let's go back in history and look at major conflicts and wars and how stocks have performed the first year of each war. Let's go all the way back to World War II. I wasn't alive, maybe a few of you were. Markets initially declined sharply in

Starting point is 00:01:08 early 1942, once the USA's direction became clear, stocks bottomed and rallied strongly. Full year returns in the first year in 1942, positive to the two of 19 and three-quarters percent to almost 36 and a half percent each and every year the U.S. was active in World War II. In 1944, through 1945. Okay, let's fast forward a bit. To the Korean War. Yes, the surprise invasion triggered volatility. Markets recovered quickly. His economic activity accelerated. The full year returns, the first year, 30.8%. Okay, we're going to fast forward to my birthday in 1965 in the Vietnam War. It was a gradual buildup, not a one-time shock event. However, a economic backdrop supported equities that year. The first year return, 12.4%. Okay, even closer, the Iraq War in 2000.

Starting point is 00:01:58 2003. Markets declined leading into the war, but once the conflict began and certainly dropped, it didn't rise and stocks rallied sharply. A full year return in 2003, 28.4% thereabouts. Investors, historically, more often than not, markets bought them near the start of the conflict, or soon after the fighting starts and then begin to recover on peak as uncertainty declines, even if the fighting continues. Why does today feel different? Well, today's concerns are, geopolitical conflict, oil volatility, AI disruption, and higher rates or straits. It also feels different now because advances in technology has given us up-to-date information at our fingertips almost immediately.

Starting point is 00:02:40 You don't have to wait for the newspaper or the nightly news updates. Heck, real-time ship traffic and troop movements are available almost immediately on your phone from posters on X or on substep. Whoever investors, the U.S. economy reigns resilient, earnings are growing and accelerating, and innovation continues. So since 2009, as in most years, greater than 5% corrections are frequent, with a median decline of a little over 7.5%. Each correction has a unique narrative, but the pattern is consistent. Markets correct more often than not, or cover in advance. Here's a great table from Charlie Vielo with the S&P 500s greater than 5% corrections since the end of the great financial crisis

Starting point is 00:03:22 in 2009. Included is the reason or rationale many investors gave for not in business. investing in those years. Investors, what are the takeaways? Expect volatility. It's normal. It's the risk you get from investing in stocks with the reward being trying to have your money grow at a multiple of inflation. Try to avoid reacting emotionally when headlines hit the news. Do what you can to focus on long-term fundamentals in growth industries if that's your style or focus on consistency and durability of dividend growth if you're a dividend and growth investor. Investors, do what you can, recognize opportunities and fear-driven sell-offs. Maybe get on the phone to talk to your advisor about investing more during highly volatile times. First, pulling back or raising cash in a down market.

Starting point is 00:04:09 So, investors, the next time you hear that, this time it's different, pause, look at the data, and remember, in most shares, it usually isn't due to the strength and stability of the U.S. economy and companies that make up the earnings of the S&P 500. Investors, whatever your priority is, growth, income or a combination of oath. The Oak Harvest team is here to help you in your family planning for your financial future no matter where you're at in your career or in your retirement.

Starting point is 00:04:34 All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein

Starting point is 00:04:53 may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment, and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results

Stock Talk - “This Time It’s Different… Or Not?” Stock Talk Update, Friday April 17, 2026

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.