Stock Talk - What Richard Florida, Klaus Schwab and Others Coined as The Great Reset, and What It Means For Your Money

Starting point is 00:00:00 A few people recently have asked me what the phrase you'll own nothing and be happy by 2030 means. Well, folks, that originated in 2016 from a video from the World Economic Forum out of Switzerland, my favorite crew. I actually thought it was a scene from Caddyshack in 1980 when they're out on the golf course and they come up to the concession stand and the concessionaire says, you'll get nothing and like it. That's about as much as I can figure anything coming out of the World Economic Forum means to you and your money here in the United States, let's keep it that way going forward. Professors, at least a few times a year for the last six years, numerous times in front of the

Starting point is 00:00:39 2020 presidential election, and more recently, many Oak Carvis prospects and clients have asked me about the coming Great Reset. Admittingly, the first few times I was asked this question, I had to Google the terms. I had no idea what was being asked of me. In each instance, I was asked the question first out of fear of an impending stock market collapse or government takeover of our personal and financial freedoms. I'm here to address to date the history of what fearing those messages, stories, or rumors from your YouTubers, financial soothsayers, politicians, or downright con artists,

Starting point is 00:01:13 has done to your money. But before we continue, if you're a first-time visitor to our channel, or you enjoy coming back for our weekly updates, but are not subscribed, please hit the subscribe button and turn on the notification bell so you'll be updated when we upload our newest content. Okay, first, the history of the term, The Great Reset, predates many views that the term was coined by the WEF, that's the World Economic Forum, post-COVID, in 2020 or 2021. In fact, Richard Florida of the University of Toronto most recently coined the term back in 2010 in his post-Great Financial Crisis book, The Great Reset, How New Ways of Living and Working, Working Drive, Post Crash

Starting point is 00:01:54 Prosperity. So, fast forward to January, into President Obama's second term as president, the term was once again brought forward into the lexicon of American media to describe the impending change that his governing might bring to Americans. Then again, in June 2020 and early 2021, the World Economic Forum, led by their self-promoting professor leader, Klaus Schwab, took up the slogan, the Great Reset Initiative with an outward goal of reimagining capitalism, whatever that means. In Klaus' world, this was an effort to reduce global inequality and advance environmental initiatives in the wake of the devastation of the coronavirus. Their words, not mine. In my world, the world of public market investing, it was a way for governments and others with motivations outside of shareholder returns to thrust themselves into the spotlight and create friction in the capital markets.

Starting point is 00:02:50 There have been other numerous times over the last 14 years that the term has come to the forefront in the media, presented almost as always a scare tactic to investors in their money. And had you listened to those pundits on YouTube or mainstream media or acted emotionally to those stories from purveyors of this idea in its dooming America and its citizens, what would have you missed out on in the public equity markets over those years? Well, take a look at the chart of the S&P 500 with the time of those major stories noted and highlighted.

Starting point is 00:03:22 Okay, so if you sold all your stocks when the 30 first appeared after the great financial crisis, you missed out on a gain of over 450% or 12.5% compounded per year for 14 years. You passed on that and you held off when the book was released because no one reads economic theory books from anyone, let alone a Canadian academic. You instead waited until President Obama was re-elected. Then you sold on Inauguration day in 2013. So what happened? Well, you missed out on over 300% gain in the S&P 500 and a compound return of over over. 12 and 3 quarters percent per year for the last 11 years. You didn't do that either.

Starting point is 00:04:00 Maybe you learned your lesson after the first Obama presidency that all Democratic presidents weren't bad for stocks, even if he didn't like his policies, and he didn't vote for him, and he didn't sell your stocks in January of 2013 on his Great Reset. Rather, you waited until some unknown German economics professor whose own country didn't like his theories.

Starting point is 00:04:20 So he left the country. So he set out another Great Reset outline post the COVID virus, global economic shutdown. If you sold in June of 2020, you missed 105% upside return or 17% compounded for the last four years. Maybe you waited until all the global elites gathered in Davos, Switzerland, and early 2021 to sell. Well, then you would have only missed 55% or 13% compounded the last three years. Investors, whether the Great Reset is real hype, a fad, or a conspiracy theory, I don't know. But I do know that your money and its investment returns care about how much cash you put into an idea and what cash is returned

Starting point is 00:05:00 to you over time. Missing out even on market indexed returns because of some emotionally charged yet unproven theory like the Great Reset does not make good investment sense to our team. So as much as you might hear the term, try to resist your urge to sell. If you do find yourself making emotional decisions or uncomfortable with a wider range of possible equity outcomes, the Oak Carvest team has launched a new strategy that retains the ability to go. go-long stocks, short stocks, as well as buy partial hedges and shock absorbers for a stock portfolio. For more information on this new strategy of ours can be found at oak harvest funds.com. To get our team's latest thoughts on more timely topics, like the Federal Reserve that acted

Starting point is 00:05:41 last week or the election, Troy Charles and I did a 90-minute live stream last week covering our team's thoughts on those topics. I'll drop up a link to the broadcast in the description below. In it, we covered a lot of ground, including the Federal Reserve's meeting and actions last the upcoming presidential election, seasonals in the stock market, government economic data, inflation, and economic growth, and where we stand versus our teams, 2004 overall market outlook and second half outlook for the year. So far, it's pretty much trading on plan for the year and we have not changed our optimistic outlook for year-end, 2024 of around 5,800 on the S&P 500, which we first alluded to in the fourth quarter of 2003. Our early first quarter,

Starting point is 00:06:23 2025 target remains about 6,000. But given the current backdrop, and what I'm saying, I lean that the 6,000 figure is a little too low by up to 200 points with the S&P 500 under a soft landing, Goldilocks, year-end, fear of missing out, move up post-election, extending into inauguration time. So wrapping it up, what does this great reset thing mean for you and your money? It means that the next time someone on YouTube or TV starts talking about the great reset, it's best to either first hit the reset button yourself and turn off the TV or change the channel. Second, try to remain unemotional about the content being presented or maybe three. Just listen and be entertained because for the last 14 years, the Great Reset and whatever that

Starting point is 00:07:10 means has been irrelevant to you and your money unless it scared you out of the U.S. stock markets and its impressive returns based on economic growth and capitalism. However, that capitalism morphing from generation to generation. For myself and the whole team here at Oak Carvest, thank you and have a great weekend. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you.

Starting point is 00:07:53 and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future. results.

Stock Talk - What Richard Florida, Klaus Schwab and Others Coined as The Great Reset, and What It Means For Your Money

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