Stock Talk - YTD: Inflation (Oil) Up, Stocks Down. Are We Near Max Pain?

Episode Date: March 20, 2026

This week, I break down why the market feels stuck and what’s really driving it. Stocks have now declined for three straight weeks, but this isn’t a typical selloff. Instead, we’re seeing a grinding, sideways market as inflation pressures quietly build again, led by rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East. I’ll explain why the bond market is signaling “higher for longer” interest rates, how energy costs are feeding real-time inflation risk, and what that means for stocks going forward. I also dive into the shift happening in AI, from hype to accountability, and why it still matters long term. Most importantly, I’ll walk through what investors should be watching right now: oil, the Fed, and upcoming earnings and how to stay positioned in a market that’s not broken, but increasingly sensitive.   About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer: As CIO, Chris is the lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. He completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, he acquired financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).   Stock Talk is a weekly vlog/podcast dedicated to discussing the Oak Harvest Financial Group Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy with a little education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money!   Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free visit: https://click2retire.com/lets-connect   Important disclosures: Content of Oak Harvest podcasts expresses the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. Oak Harvest believes that any data, articles, or information cited are reliable at the time of creation, but does not warrant any information contained herein to be correct, complete, accurate, or timely. References to third-party analysts should not be seen as an endorsement of their views or recommendations, and you should do your own research before investing. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast constitutes personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Any specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

So, investors, it's been a long week. It seemed to be more of a rinse and repeat, so I'm going to do a bit of a recap. I'm going to cover equities, bonds, inflation, geopolitics, and the ongoing AI transition with a focus on what's mattering for your portfolio. The bottom line, the S&P 500 peaked early November of last year, and it's gone nowhere ever since. Markets have been pausing and consolidating, not breaking. But the inflation pressure our team saw to start the year is building. Oil and energy markets have been the recent reason. So let's start with last week. March 6th through 13th was broadly down the third week in a row. The S&P 500 was down a little over 1.5%. Dow Jones down a little over 2 and a quarter.

The NASDAQ composite down around 1 and a quarter percent. So year-to-date for the year, the S&P 500 is down about 2 and a half percent. The Dow down about 3 percent. The NASDAQ down about 4 percent. That's not great, but it's not horrible, given the rising, uncertain and uncertainty of slowing growth and higher inflation. So what does this sloppy action for the last five months tell us? It says to me, digestion so far, not a downtrend. It's pretty normal behavior after a V-bottom like April 2025, but it's not enjoyable at all. We've been and remain in a

sideways rotational market for almost six months now. So what drove last week? Well, first off, inflation data came in higher than most expected, and that's before the Iranian context. that pushed rate-cut expectations farther out. Second, oil prices surge driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East that have extended beyond Iran. Third, the rotation in the markets continued with money moving out of mega-cap growth and into energy, health care, and some income stocks. So the takeaway so far is this is classic mid-cycle consolidation. Call it the sixth or seventh inning stretch, not a sell-off, not a reset, just sideways so far. bonds in fixed income. Unfortunately, as it's been most of 2006, the bond market continues to send a very

clear message. Rates are likely to stay higher for longer because inflation is higher than most want. What we saw last week in fixed income was treasury yields remaining elevated because inflation component, not the growth component, came in hot. Volatility and rates increased a lot into the weekend, and markets pushed out the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Why does this matter to investors? matters because higher yields create competition for equities. They also tighten financial conditions. Both stocks and bonds don't like higher trending inflation. As we've had for most 2026, I'm going to connect inflation and growth. So currently inflation is sticky and growth has been slowing in the first quarter, but investors, it's still positive growth. What's driving inflation concerns much

higher the last two weeks is energy input costs re-accelerating, creating the risk that if oil stays elevated, the move in inflation is beyond its normal seasonal uptick, and we move from slowing inflation to reinflation. That would be very bad. On the growth side, consumer spending is holding up reasonably well at the high end, but it's not great in the middle incomes, and it's deteriorating quickly in lower income levels while labor markets are slowing as well. So far, there are signs of a slowdown, but not a sharp downturn. For now, it's a softening environment, that it's becoming more fragile with the Iran conflict being a huge swing factor. Iran in broader Middle East situation is now directly impacting markets with increased attacks beyond Iran's borders,

affecting global energy infrastructure, and rising tension across the region, having driven oil prices over $100 per barrel and hurting fertilizer pricing and other input costs. Investors, the financial markets care about this now because this is pushing up inflation pressure in real time, how by higher oil leads to higher. transportation costs, higher goods pricing, and rising inflation expectations. So far, most markets have been resilient because the assumption is that this conflict is contained and it doesn't escalate globally. But the risk is rising that if this expands, the consequences or inflation moves higher, the Federal Reserve stays restrictive longer, and that would put

equities in the place of lower PEs as they contract usually in this dynamic. shift away from geopolitics to something I'm more comfortable talking about and analyzing, and that's more long-term secular drivers in our economy like AI, artificial intelligence. The markets are moving from AI enthusiasm for everything to AI accountability. The markets now are asking, so where are the earnings? Where's the earnings growth? And where's the productivity gains? What companies are going to be benefits? What companies are going to see detriments to their companies? And what companies are capturing value and who has a better or worse marginal return on invested capital.

The O'Carvis team is seeing continued heavy investment in AI infrastructure. We see strong demand for compute and power and early signs of productivity impact on some of our investments. AI remains a multi-year structural theme. But right now, expectations are being tempered. For now, what matters most? Oil prices and their effect on inflation trajectory, the Federal Reserve policy timing, and second and third quarter earnings or revenue expectations being achievable. For now, investors should stay balanced but maintain growth exposure

is it's one of the few asset classes that historically can out-earn and out-return inflation. For now, it's not a fragile market, but it is a sensitive market, and the sensitive markets react quickly to new information. Bottom line, markets are consolidating. Inflation is the constraint. Geopolitics have been the swing factor. AI is a long-term driver, oak harvest guidance remains consistent. Stay disciplined, stay diversified, stay focused on your long-term objectives. We'll continue monitoring these risks and more and positioning

accordingly. Investors, whether a priority is growth, income, or a combination of both, our Oak Harvest team is here to help you and your family plan for your financial future, whether you're in your retirement or nearing your retirement years. All content contained with an Oak Harvest podcast, the views of the speaker and is for informational purposes only. It is based on information believed to be reliable when created, but any cited data, indicators, statistics, or other sources are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed herein may change without notice. Strategies and ideas discussed may not be right for you, and nothing in this podcast should be considered as personalized investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell security.

Indexes such as the S&P 500 are not available for direct investment and your investment results may differ when compared to an index. Specific portfolio actions or strategies discussed will not apply to all client portfolios. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results.