Stuff You Should Know - Selects: What's the misery index?

Episode Date: July 23, 2022

Economists love their data because somewhere in the numbers lies the answer to the ills of the country. They also love to frame data in a way people can relate to. Such is the case with the famous "misery index." Learn all about it in this classic episode.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey friends when you're staying at an Airbnb you might be like me wondering could my place be an Airbnb and if it could what could it earn? So I was pretty surprised to hear about Lisa in Manitoba who got the idea to Airbnb the backyard guest house over childhood home now The extra income helps pay her mortgage. So yeah, you might not realize it But you might have an Airbnb to find out what your place could be earning at air bnb.ca Slash host hey, I'm Lance Bass host of the new I hard podcast frosted tips with Lance Bass Do you ever think to yourself? What advice would Lance Bass and my favorite boy bands give me in this situation if you do you've come to the right place? Because I'm here to help and a different hot sexy teen crush boy bander each week to guide you through life

Tell everybody yeah, everybody About my new podcast and make sure to listen so we'll never ever have to say bye bye bye Listen to frosted tips with Lance Bass on the I heart radio app Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts Hi, everybody. It's Chuck here I guess it's time to introduce another Saturday select I'm pretty miserable. So maybe I should just do this one on the misery index. It's called What's the misery index and? It's from June 23rd 2016. I hope you like it. It was a lot of fun recording it

Welcome to stuff you should know a production of I heart radio Hey and welcome to the podcast, I'm Josh Clark and there's Charles W. Chuck Bryant The W stands for Wayne mm-hmm their Wayne coin That gets you every time I know it's funny to be 45 years old been named after Wayne going because he's like 48, right? No, he's in his fifties But it would be weird. I would have been named after a very like kindergarten age Wayne coin All right, you know, maybe your parents were friends with his parents and they really thought a lot about him

Boy, he's a real achiever. That Wayne coins going places Okay That was a weird sidetrack. It was already out of the gate man. Mm-hmm. How you feeling? I'm good. Got a lot on your plate got a lot going on Meh. Oh, you know what today is? What? Dude today is the day That I leave this office and I go to a shop in Inman Park and pick up four brand new last chance garage hats

Oh, wow. It's a big day Very big day big day. So I have a couple of people I'd like to thank Uh-huh. It's a bigger deal than it should be for a grown man in a hat, but we all understand first of all Katie my Custom patch maker. This is really where it all came together. The patch isn't right. The hat's not right, right Katie killed it it looks identical and You can find her work at tulip cake dot-com TULIP cake and I said, you know people might ask you to make you to make them

Last chance garage patches. Did you ever destroy the mold and I said, I don't you know, it's on you. It's up to you legally I'm just saying you might get requests You should have been like Ivan the terrible who blinded his architects after they built his palace Now I don't care people. I'd love to see these things around and LaMood big hats LAM OOD for big heads because part of the problem was finding Big and tall hat. Yeah, man like uh the problem I have with hats these days I don't look like I have a huge head

No, they they just fit so snugly and they don't go far down enough on my head So I finally looked up oversized hats and found LaMood hats and dude, they're exactly like the old hat Except it doesn't stink Oh, yeah, like these are great. I got four brand-news. It's an improvement for sure So are you going to put one in like the Seed Vault in Norway? Uh, probably one there. Uh, there'll be one in the nuclear suitcase and um Uh, I'll wear the other two at the same time at the same front and back like Sherlock Holmes. That's right. Anyway, I'm super excited

So it's pretty cool. Thank you to Katie and LaMood hats for Allowing me to spend too much money getting four hats remade and speaking of while we're thanking people We we owe a long overdue. Thank you to a guy who um made us a really cool sign Um, oh, you mean the the sign this guy made for us like seven years ago. Yeah, his name's matt street He's at fatbison.com and he made a really cool woodcarve sign. Yeah, it was in our tv show It was like like the production company got clearance rights for it and all this stuff and we love the sign But we just forgot to ever thank matt so matt. Thank you so much for the sign. We love it We have it hanging here in the studio. It is a work of art and we appreciate and we're sorry for the oversight. Yeah

Um, is that all the thank yous? I think so. Let's talk about the misery index, huh? Yeah, what a great transition Have you um, had you heard of it before you came across this article? Yeah, I didn't know a lot about it though and um, apparently it's gone a little bit out of fashion lately from what I understand Yeah, I think so because well, well, let's get into it Okay, it turns out economics as a whole is in danger of going out of fashion I read this I've read this really interesting article on aeon, which is maybe the greatest website on the planet 80on.com It might be dot co because you say that british about a lot of websites

I think I said about aeon a lot. Okay, and and it just seems like I'm talking about different ones But there's this article by allen j Levinovitz and it's called the new astrology and he basically makes a parallel between Economics and economists and economic theory when you take economics and try to apply it to future forecasting right and the um the bce chinese astrologers that basically directed the way that the Economy or the government was going to move based on the movements of the stars

So what are they saying? It's you might as well just do that He draw some pretty pretty interesting parallels between the two that that economics in and of itself is not necessarily flawed But when it's used to forecast the future, then it becomes inherently flawed. Yeah, this this article really kind of Submits that yeah a little bit. Yeah to an extent. I mean the misery index is a legitimate economic tool and It's hit or miss in a lot of ways. Yeah, I think one thing that hit home to me with researching this is it just seems impossible to Say that there's one Correct way of doing things

Right or that is absolute and you're like, you know, if you do things this way Then there will be nothing but growth in jobs and the gdp sure and gnp And uh, it just it just doesn't seem to work that way Right. I think the problem is is that if you listen to economists, they like to act like they do have a handle on that kind of Thing, but if you really look into economics, it's very politicized. There's liberal economics and there's conservative economics and the fact that Each one saying it's right kind of makes you think that maybe no one is, you know But the misery index actually is is it started out from a guy who Was pretty good at walking the line between conservative and liberal economics. Um a guy, uh,

What was his name oaken? Yeah, arthur oaken, right and he uh He worked on kennedy's staff his council of economic advisors, uh, john f kennedy that is and he was um, I get the feeling one of the main influences and Talking kennedy who initially did not necessarily agree but talking kennedy into Kind of trying to enact both conservative and liberal Economic policies simultaneously, right? They were the u.s. Was in a recession. Yeah when kennedy took office in 1961 Um, and they talked him into not only increasing Government spending like welfare programs. They raised the um the uh minimum wage. Yeah

And um some other stuff like that, but they also cut taxes. Yeah Which it's you do one or the other you cut taxes and hope everything goes for the best because businesses will start investing in spending Or you start it you start investing in welfare programs to help your ailing Um lower and middle classes, right? You don't do both. Yeah, and kennedy did both and it was successful Yeah, he well, he you know at first he said I don't know about this. I don't know about this author. My kennedy sounds like a robot My kennedy too actually yours is fine. Uh, but arthur mr. Oaken oaken oaken. I think oaken oaken It's a weird name. Okay u n

Uh, he talked him into it and said trust me And Things worked out In that case. Yeah. Well and a lot of guys including oaken's names Were made by this advice that panned out like the u.s entered a boom. Yeah, and um Oaken ended up as being the head of the council of economic advisors for kennedy's successor linden johnson, right? Yeah, and um One thing that economic economists economists love to do is um

I mean, they love to forecast and all that stuff, but it's all about data Sure, man. They love to pour over data. Yeah, like stuff that makes the average person Their mind bleed from boredom. They just find it fascinating. That's what they do on friday nights friday nights They pour over data historical data trying to find, you know, it's like the big puzzle and they're all trying to solve it right, so they pour over this data oaken did and um He said, you know what? I noticed something here Between 1948 when we started recording, uh, some some decent unemployment, uh, Rates, right?

Which I didn't know I didn't know we started that in 1948. Yeah, it seems like it would have gone back before then Uh, but between 1948 1960 he said, you know what? I've noticed that the gross national product rises three percent For every percentage point That unemployment falls. Mm-hmm with the caveat that unemployment has to be between three and seven point five percent, right? Which is a pretty like It's a pretty bold statement to say I've noticed this is a definite trend It is and it came to be called oaken's law because It was verified other people poured over the data and like this guy's right

Man, he just keeps coming up with hits doesn't he? That's right. Um, and the the reason you would want to know some our cane piece of Data like that is that if you know that that's the case Then you can say well if we attack unemployment can get it down a couple of points We can you know raise gdp or gmp, you know by three percent every time we drop it So when we need to bulk gmp up, yeah, we just attack unemployment, right? Right easy peasy Uh, yeah, and everyone said thank you art Yeah, things worked out pretty well for a while, but then the 1970s came along

and um If you what we're gonna talk a little bit about stagflation now, but if you haven't heard it We have a pretty good episode. What's it good? I think so. Okay called. What is stagflation? From february 24 2011 um Yeah, I think as far as our economics episodes it it was not bad. Okay. I went back and listened to a lot of it Oh, okay. Good before I got bored. So it checks out. Yeah, the first three minutes were great um, but yeah go back and listen to that but um

Like you said he served as chairman of the cea for johnson and then in 1973 a very Uh Unfortunate thing happened that kind of ended up rocking the world and the united states in particular with our economy Um, so we're gonna take a break and we're gonna talk when we get back about the middle east Hey, i'm lance bass host of the new i hard podcast frosted tips with lance bass The hardest thing can be knowing who to turn to when questions arise or times get tough or you're at the end of the road Uh, okay. I see what you're doing. Do you ever think to yourself? What advice would lance bass and my favorite boy bands give me in this situation?

If you do you've come to the right place because i'm here to help this. I promise you. Oh god Seriously, I swear and you won't have to send an sos because i'll be there for you Oh, man, and so my husband michael um, hey, that's me Yep, we know that michael and a different hot sexy teen crush boy bander each week to guide you through life Step by step. Oh not another one. Uh-huh kids relationships life in general can get messy You may be thinking this is the story of my life. Oh, just stop now If so tell everybody yeah, everybody About my new podcast and make sure to listen so we'll never ever have to say bye. Bye. Bye. Bye

Listen to frosted tips with lance bass on the i heart radio app apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts I'm mange shtikler and to be honest. I don't believe in astrology, but from the moment I was born It's been a part of my life in india It's like smoking you might not smoke but you're gonna get secondhand astrology and lately I've been wondering if the universe has been trying to tell me to stop running and pay attention Because maybe there is magic in the stars if you're willing to look for it So I rounded up some friends and we dove in and let me tell you It got weird fast

Tantric curses major league baseball teams cancelled marriages kpop But just when I thought I had to handle on this sweet and curious show about astrology My whole world can crash down situation doesn't look good. There is risk to father And my whole view on astrology It changed Whether you're a skeptic or a believer. I think your ideas are going to change too. Listen to skyline drive and the i heart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts Here's to the great american settlers

The millions of you have settled for unsatisfying jobs because they pay the bills and uh You just kind of fell into it and you know, it's like totally fine Just another few decades or so and then you can enjoy yourself Of course, there is something else you could do if you got something to say You could oh, I don't know start a podcast with speaker from i heart And unleash your creative freedom and spend all day researching and talking about stuff you love And maybe even earn enough money to one day tell your irritating bosses As you quit and walk off into the sunset

Hey, i'm no settler. I'm an explorer Spreaker.com. That's a sbr eak er Salon over today All right, what happened in 1973 the uh, i'm two years old I am negative three. Okay the arab oil embargo happened, right? That's right So at the time until very recently the u.s. Was super dependent on foreign oil. Yeah, like Like other countries we wouldn't even sit down at the table with we were getting oil from right? Yeah, we're doing better now

Yeah with our dependency, but back then very bad very um, and it was a it was a source of anxiety for a lot of people and that anxiety actually panned out so in um, 1973 egypt and syria and a few other arab nations invaded the golan heights and the synai peninsula to attempt to take back land From the state of israel, right? That's right. The u.s. Uh was found to be supplying arms to israel So as far as the arab states were concerned the u.s. Had cast its lot on israel's side And they were fairly peeved about that So they literally shut off the tap

of oil Flowing to the united states and other countries that were found. Yeah considered to be on the side of israel in this in this war Huge deal. It was an enormous deal that the this foreign dependency in the the Precarious situation that it placed the united states and came to pass and the price of oil rose 37 percent The long lines at the gas station were never seen before or since even after the financial crisis of 2008. Yeah um, it was just insane. There was gas rationing in the united states in 1973 because of the um, The oil embargo and after a while the teps were turned back on but that shock to the system

Screwed the economy up for a decade. Yeah inflation, uh went out of control and um, a very uh another Unfortunate thing happened along the same timeline unemployment Started to creep up and these two things happening at the same time is devastating. Yeah, and up to this point So first of all the u.s. Had never had a shock to the system like that. That was one thing. Yeah, it wasn't a gradual thing It was just like abrupt. Yeah But the other thing is when you have something that has never happened before you can look at it and say Wow, what what happened and new things that have never happened before come out of that and one of the things

Was inflation and unemployment going up because up to this point Economists just assume that the two were mutually exclusive right if you're if you're um, if inflation was up prices were high That meant that companies could go out and hire more people. Yeah, so unemployment, of course would be low Yeah, it kind of made sense. Well not after the oil embargo The shock to the system led to like you said high unemployment rates and high inflation and uh, it was a miserable time Yeah, and that uh, was called stagflation. Mm-hmm. It also led to skateboarding as we all know Oh, yeah, because of the pools, right? Yeah, they could in cal. Well, actually that was the drought But I think the drought was also tied into the economics

Sure, but they couldn't fill up swimming pools. So they started skating and swimming pools Well, yeah, if you have a drought then you lose your crops and if you lose your crops You lose money a significant sector of money. Exactly. So good news We have half pipes now Then quarter pipes and power perellta and power and perellta. They're still around, right? I think so, of course Bad news is like you said it had a devastating effect for many many years on the united states Right, so okan starts to look around. He said, you know what things are pretty bad here. One might even say miserable I've gotten any acclaim for a while. Yeah, nothing's been named after me in a while

All right, so let me create this new This new method for looking at the economy and it turns out to not be like a Look over a period of time or anything, but just sort of like a polaroid of that Day and not just that day for like the country as a whole or For the fed or anything like that But what he did that was different was he looked into What the what it was like that day or that year for the average American? Yes in their daily life Right, and he called it the misery index. Yeah, and it was very rudimentary

At the time it was just a simple calculation of the yearly rate of inflation plus the unemployment rate Yeah, so if you have like five percent Inflation and two percent unemployment. You have a seven percent misery index. It's as simple as that I don't know why it got so much, you know, what was hailed as a big deal because I think oaken had a A knack for noticing things that seemed obvious in retrospect, but at the time no one had ever noticed before Okay, I'll buy it. Thank you. Why not? All right, so now he has this index and not only can he look at a snapshot of that day He can go back because he was a

Data wonk and he could look at data throughout history. Well at least in 1948 Yeah, which is when we started recording unemployment like we said, which must have been frustrating for him because our Our inflation rates data goes back to 1914, but that's only part of the equation Well, he must have been like, oh man, sure and to be able to look at the great depression you could have learned a lot, you know Sure So he went and he looked back and he says here is what we've noticed and this is so obvious to me That that presidents and political parties are brought in and out of office largely Depending on how the economy is doing. Yeah, but they kind of proved it

But not even just how the economy is doing like he was saying like the misery index you can use it to predict Whether the the presidency is going to change hands politically. Yeah So 1956 Misery index is 6.53, which is great That's during Ike. Yeah, very low. Mr. Eisenhower President Eisenhower and he got reelected because things were pretty good Right as far as the misery index goes. Yeah. Yeah, everybody was pretty happy Even though they didn't really know what the misery index was because it wasn't invented yet, right?

They just had a general sense. Well, yeah, they didn't call it that at the time No, there's just like seems fine to me. You miserable. We like Ike. No, I'm not miserable. Are you? So in 1968, uh, Johnson, uh, came to the end of his term And the misery index was up to 8.13. And then he had his Democratic successor Hubert Humphrey in line And because the thing had crept up people a little more miserable and they said no get out of here I want Mr. Nixon in office, right? And I guess I'm not I'm not sure about this. So I don't understand why Johnson

was replaced by Humphrey by the democrats And and this article and it seems to to be because of this misery index That it would have predicted that but he was the incumbent president. Oh, is he only on one term or? I let's see. So he was He would have I should know this. No, he yeah, he was a one-term or technically one in a third or one in a quarter Because he took over after Kennedy's assassination But if his term was up in 68, then he would have won the 64 election So he technically I think would have been able to have been president again. I'm not sure

We could have found this out, too Sure, but I'll bet there's somebody out there who can explain it to us and it's so emailless. Will you? Uh, at any rate Nixon gets elected and um, The the misery index shot up to 11.67 during the first term but then started to just decline enough that he did get re-elected um, but then Uh, in 1974 with Watergate the misery index leapt all the way up to 17.01. That's not good No, that's that was the all-time high at the time from what I understand. I think so. Um, and that happened around

1974 Which meant that when Watergate broke some people who really subscribed to the misery index say Watergate might not have been quite as big a deal if um, the misery index had been low at the time, right? He might have been able to squeak by without resigning or being forced out of office I think everyone has more leeway if things are great. Sure, you know, but he has his uh His his currency had been spent man. I watched all the president's men a few weeks ago again. Yeah, you ever seen that? No Great great movie. Yeah, I've always meant to you really really good And just sort of like they don't make a lot of movies like that anymore spotlight

Reminded me of all the president's men. Sure. I haven't seen that one yet either. It's good. It's just I call it movies for adults You know, there's no chase scenes or anything remarkable. It's just good dramatic Movie making. Yeah, good stuff. Anyway, wait, what's wrong with chase scenes? Huh, what's wrong with chase scenes? No, there's nothing inherently wrong with the chase scene But I know what you mean just for the sake of a chase scene which we see a lot of these days You know what I mean? Like Mark Ruffalo's chasing a priest in a car in spotlight. Yeah Um Where were we? Okay, we were with Nixon. Um, well not with Nixon. You know what I mean? Ford comes in office

For a short time and he actually managed to get the misery index down Well, I think just the fact that Nixon was out. I think that probably helped. Yeah, um, you know, yeah And inspire like consumer confidence and the like So it cracked back down to 12.66, but not enough to keep um Um, uh, the democrats and jimmy carter from coming into office and carter actually cited the misery index Yeah, it was relatively new at the time. Yeah, he talked too much about it But it was it was a g whiz thing that you could really just point to like this plus this this is the misery index Can you can you hear me? Yeah, that's my

But um, that was his famous quote. Can you hear me? It came back to haunt him though to say the least because he talked a lot about the misery index and then in his Uh term the uh, it reached an all-time high of 21.98. Yeah, which man I really think that shock to the system under the oil embargo Um, and plenty of other stuff this stuff gets laid at carter's feet. I think unfairly in a lot of respects well, I mean I would love for someone to really that really knows their stuff to explain to me Exactly how much a president's influence has on the economy and how long it takes for that to bear fruit

Yeah, I would love to know that too. I think though, uh, the guy who came after carter reagan Is a pretty sterling unassailable example of an impact a president can have on the economy Whether you agree with his politics or his economic policies or not He most decidedly had an effect on the economy. Yeah, I just remember hearing one time I need to look this up But somebody told me once that the the economic impact of a presidential a four-year term Is felt the most like eight years later or something. Yeah, that makes sense to me economies don't move on a dime Yeah, I just I don't know if that's correct lumbering things. They aren't fully understood by anybody

Yeah, it's interesting to me now more than ever before though because remember economics used to just bore me I know I was really really surprised when you suggested this one. It's slightly more interesting to me now. What changed? Oh, just wondering things like that and during an election season. Yeah, like Are the decisions we make now gonna affect us in one year or two years eight years? Yeah, well if there's any economists who are still listening after that initial remark about the new astrology We'd love to get a primer on how long it takes for a president to impact an economy if they do at all And I'm sure it's a range, you know, sure. It's not like starting at eight years And really honestly was Carter that band or was he a victim of cross-stars?

Yeah, I mean that you can make a case where a lot of ills of presidency is not being directly at their feet. Well, you remember that uh That simpsons where they unveiled a statue of jimmy carter in springfield and on the pedestal It says malaise forever and somebody goes jimmy carter. He's history's greatest monster Poor Carter So, uh, like we said that came back to haunt carter because he talked a lot about the index at rose a lot Then reagan came in was like, well, let's talk about that misery index that you like to talk about so much Right, that's at an all-time high reagan got in there. Um, knocked it down to nine point five five

By the end of his term enough to get bush senior in It inched up some then clinton was able to uh, it didn't go up that much though And I read an interesting article today on Whether or not ross perot really got clinton elected because that's sort of the popular thought he was a spoiler. Yeah, I could see that but, um He was definitely more in line with um bush seniors policies than clinton's well or at the time Yeah, you would think but I read uh, I read one article that said that it was kind of a myth that basically that clinton won by six million votes and it would have taken 75 percent of perot supporters to have

uh been aligned with um with bush And supposedly exit polls showed showed it more like 38 to 40 percent. Um, and so they're saying it's sort of a myth that perot Swung the election to clinton. I see but I mean that was one person's opinion. So who knows? You know, I've been reading a lot about you know, that We that that suspicion you can't quite kick that there's really no difference between Republicans and democrats these days that they're really just kind of all in the same little club I think people feel that way sometimes. I've been reading a lot about that and apparently it's all

Based on neoliberalism. That's like the key. Oh, yeah, and um, There's there's a lot of if you look into neoliberalism and the policies of neoliberalism You realize we're like living in the thick of it But no one everyone's kind of blind to the idea that it's just a single thing that basically everybody in power subscribes to Right and that it it has a um a trickle down effect of screwing over everybody below the top Yeah, um, but just the name itself seems totally fine, you know, but it's uh It's it's interesting. Yeah, I researched that a little bit lately too. Yeah, there's some good article. We totally should. Yeah Let's do it. Chuck. Agreed man. We're gonna get some emails for that one

from billionaires Yeah, um, so let's just finish out this quick little recap Clinton brought it down to seven point three five Things were great. Bush jr gets elected Um, despite the fact that Clinton had a low index. Well, it depends on how you look at the 2000 election We should do one on that one too But this is the this is that's considered one of those rare instances where the misery index didn't indicate where it was going to go But you could also say

It might have sure had things gone slightly differently in the supreme court Uh, george w bush, uh, the index rose from seven point three five to eleven point four And then obama came in it went down to seven point eight seven but another weird flaw in the system is exposed there because um Despite the fact that the misery index was lower Uh, things were not good. The stock market had crashed Um unemployment was rising at a rapid rate

And they said, you know, this it basically was another example of like look this misery index isn't all it's cracked up to be Right, so let's work on it. Yeah, I think a lot of people said this is too simplistic You you can't rely on this. Yeah, we'll talk about some of the um Additional factors that people have worked into the misery index after this Hey, I'm lance bass host of the new ihard podcast frosted tips with lance bass The hardest thing can be knowing who to turn to when questions arise or times get tough or you're at the end of the road Uh, okay. I see what you're doing. Do you ever think to yourself? What advice would lance bass and my favorite boy bands give me in this situation?

If you do you've come to the right place because i'm here to help this. I promise you. Oh god Seriously, I swear and you won't have to send an sos because i'll be there for you Oh, man, and so my husband michael um, hey, that's me Yep, we know that michael and a different hot sexy teen crush boy bander each week to guide you through life step by step Oh, not another one Kids relationships life in general can get messy. You may be thinking this is the story of my life Oh, just stop now. If so tell everybody you everybody About my new podcast and make sure to listen

So we'll never ever have to say bye. Bye. Bye Listen to frosted tips with the lance bass on the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts I'm mongesh aticular and to be honest I don't believe in astrology, but from the moment I was born It's been a part of my life in india. It's like smoking. You might not smoke But you're gonna get secondhand astrology and lately I've been wondering if the universe has been trying to tell me to stop running and pay attention Because maybe there is magic in the stars if you're willing to look for it

So I rounded up some friends and we dove in and let me tell you It got weird fast Tantric curses major league baseball teams cancelled marriages kpop But just when I thought I had to handle on this sweet and curious show about astrology My whole world came crashing down situation doesn't look good. There is risk to father And my whole view on astrology It changed Whether you're a skeptic or a believer. I think your ideas are going to change too

Listen to skyline drive and the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts Here's to the great american settlers The millions of you who settled for unsatisfying jobs because they pay the bills and uh You just kind of fell into it and you know, it's like totally fine Just another few decades or so and then you can enjoy yourself Of course, there is something else you could do if you got something to say You could oh, I don't know start a podcast with speaker from iHeart And unleash your creative freedom and spend all day researching and talking about stuff you love

And maybe even earn enough money to one day tell your irritating boss as you quit and walk off into the sunset Hey, I'm no settler. I'm an explorer Spreaker.com. That's a sbr eak er Salon over today All right chuck so the misery index Oaken everybody's happy with him. Yeah, they're like this is just too simple Especially in what's called the post stagflation era after the oil embargo. Yeah

um and So some people have said, okay, you can there's certainly there's other things you can add in to give a genuine true snapshot Of what the conditions are like on the ground as it were right? Well, yeah, not only what the conditions are but whether or not performance over a period of time is getting better getting worse Yes, and you know rather than say oh under Under this president the misery index was this, you know, and it gives you a pretty good idea. Yeah The this with this one guy named Robert Barrow

He wrote a 1996 book called getting it right markets and choices in a free society and in it He takes the misery index Oaken's misery index and he says We can add some stuff to this to make it an even clearer picture Not just of the conditions on the ground, but you can take it and apply it Genuinely to a president's entire term to see just how good their economic policies were or weren't for the health of the economy Yeah, and he added some other stuff. Yeah, he added four main new measurements Uh, took the inflation rate during the last year of the president's term compared it to the average inflation rate over the entire course of the

subsequent president's term which is based on what you were saying that like The uh, a four-year term right the effects are felt like years down the road. Sure. So I think that's what he was doing there, right? Yeah, it makes sense I did the same thing with the rate of unemployment. Uh, that was number two He added in changes for the 30 year government bond yield over presidency And then finally he said, um, I need to look at the difference between the the long-term gdp growth The real rate of growth right compare all these things along with the original

This plus this equals this right and with the real growth rate. Um, that's where you take The actual change either the shrinking or the growth of the economy the gdp year over year Right. Yes, and he took that for year after year over the course of a presidency and averaged it out. I guess that's right Yeah, and he came up with what's called the barrow misery index And um, a lot of people think that that's where the misery index started when in fact it was oaken who came up with it Uh, about 20 years before barrow Took it up and improved it. Yeah So under barrow's misery index, um, clinton and ragan, uh, this bill clinton, of course, came out on top

Uh, and then a guy named steve hanky about 10 years later. This was originally in 1996 and then hanky came along in 2006 And said, you know what? We need to add even more things and this all just makes sense You need to if you want a more detailed picture then add more detail to the data going in, you know, right? So he said we need more detail Uh, why don't we do this? Let's um Let's measure inflation and unemployment like we're doing and then let's now add interest rates and subtract annual percentages from the gdp to get a more accurate picture, right? And he said you can use this anywhere you can use it all over the world

Well, that's what he did and that's kind of what made his uh, his version of it pretty famous He figured out how to apply it to other countries even countries that used, um Price controls to keep inflation in check, which means price inflation is held back artificially So hanky looked into other things like, um, the exchange rate in the black market in a given country, that kind of thing Um, and he figured out real inflation rates and he applied it around the world to find out what country is the most miserable and what country is the least miserable And what he found in 2014 was that the most miserable country in the world was venezuela Yeah, which had a hanky misery index, uh, of 79.4 It's pretty high very high, uh, and then japan had the the lowest misery at 5.41

Yeah, the u.s. Came in at about 19 Correct, I think 11. Oh 11th. Yeah. No, no, 11 was our oh, I'm sorry 19th. Yeah. Yeah, you're right ranked 19th Yes, with an 11 rating. I didn't hear that. Yeah, that's because my tooth is still gone Because my tooth is still gone You'd think it'd be it'd be more pronounced The th's if it were 19th I would have heard it clear as well august

Can't get here soon enough so, um There are critics of this one too though. There's critics of all these indexes. Well, yeah, the a lot of them say no Still too Yeah, some people say this is all just tripe like you can't sure you can't use this stuff to to make any real predictions You could use it to look back at the past but to use it for the future probably not But some people do believe in the idea that if you have enough data And the right kind of data you can get a clear picture of misery and again, that's what we're after here

like the whole point of the misery index is to figure out how unhappy and And just low the average person in a country is feeling at that moment. Yeah, right? So, um Huffpo actually came up with a pretty good one Huffpo boo Yay in 2009 Huffpo came up with what they called the real misery index, right? and so a lot of

People cite the the use of what's called u3 Unemployment statistics. Yeah, which when you hear unemployment numbers in the news, that's what you're hearing That's what the bureau of labor statistics issues as the official unemployment numbers, right? Yeah, and that's the very first thing that people will say if they want to poo poo The unemployment numbers that that these are these are just false numbers. Yeah, if someone says hey man Look how great x president is doing look at the unemployment rate, right? Man, they're just using the u3 right they need to use the u6 wake up pal Yeah, open your eyes, which is you know is valid. Well. Yeah, so um the bls has six

Measurements of unemployment you won through u6 And u6 is the broadest. Yeah, it includes people who are so discouraged with the state of the job market That they've given up looking for work and are just like have given themselves over entirely to uh, judge alex sure right and then um It also includes people who are working part-time, but wish they could work full-time, but there's no full-time work available Yeah, like i'm a graphic designer, but i work at starbucks. So that's the u6 Measurement and that's considered the the broadest snapshot of unemployment the real Um vision of unemployment. Yeah, like you said mostly they use u3

I guess because it's in the middle. I mean you won they would never use u2 Everybody used to like but not anymore I still like u2. Do you good? Yeah, you know not like i used to i'm not poo pooing anything but I did see that concert they did on the hbo And I have to hand it to him my big problem with u2 for years It was uh, they just got so out of control with those live shows

Like these giant spider spaceships and things and right I was always of the belief that man you need to go back to basics And just get up on stage and play again. Yeah, and that's what they did with this new tour I mean there was a cool visual element, but the stage set up in the way they did it was very much back to basics And that's cool. I think they really connected with fans again. Yeah, that's kind of help. Yeah, because You can only when the when the interactions between you and the fans rather than the fans and giant spiders Yeah, you just you can only go so far in that direction. I think they realize that sure Anyway, where'd it go u2? I'll defend those guys

um Even though I know everyone in the world generally wants to punch bono in the face I know i'm not one of them. It's gotta feel weird. I like him Yeah, I'm on record sure Bono if you're listening Well, if you're uh Jared indicator is any any predictor bono is going to come out to be canonized one day If what? Oh, yeah, yeah, you know, you're like there's something about Jared I don't like him and you know, we found out about Jared right and then um, so now you're saying bono like bono good guy

Something's good like they're gonna find a cure for cancer in a saliva or something. You never know um, so Did we even mention what the huffbow what kind of outrageous numbers they came up with? No, well, we didn't mention everything they use we were talking about the u6 measurement Huffbow used that measurement the most extreme one of unemployment numbers They also used other things like the inflation rate of food and drink and fuel and healthcare Because other the misery index just uses the consumer price index, which is inflation as a whole right huffbow used

The the inflation of some really essential things that people can't do without yeah And where you're gonna immediately feel the pinch when prices go up with those key factors, right? Um, they also included the rate of credit card delinquency the cost of housing how many people are using food stamps That seems like a smart move totally home equity loan deficiencies. I guess people who are laid on their payments Um, and then they took the average of those seven numbers and added it to the u6 unemployment numbers, which Here you can step back and say wait a minute. How would you how are you adding this together? How does this make any sense? You can't just keep adding things, right? And really you can take that all the way back to the Initial misery index like what you're just adding unemployment percentage and inflation and all of a sudden you have a magic number

That doesn't make any sense This huffbow metric really points out the inherent flaw in it. I think yeah, because in 2008 the oaken misery index was 8.1, but huffbow's real misery index AKA you think things are bad here's how bad they really are index was 29.9 compared to the 8.1 Right and some people are like, oh, well, that just shows how off the oaken misery index is. Yeah Who knows? I know they quit doing the real misery index at huffbow like five years ago. I think it was a Am I gonna call it a stunt? It was a bit of a stunt

Maybe but I'm sure really what happened was the Writer who is contributing it for free like left for a paying job That's probably what happened is a huffbow real misery index. Yeah, you're probably right. Um, I was reading this guy Tim McMahon. He has a site or he writes for a site. I'm not sure it's his or not called inflationdata.com Jim McMahon, Tim. Oh, his brother. Gotcha. Not the Super Bowl shuffle. No, his brother Um, so he he mentioned this 2001 paper that concluded that unemployment causes 1.7 times more misery than inflation And so if you're doing any kind of misery index that uses those two You need to first multiply the unemployment number by 1.7 before adding it to

The inflation number to to properly weight it. Yeah, I'm like, how did they come up with that? So I looked at the paper and it was actually pretty clever. There's like 23 years of the survey of life satisfaction and happiness that these researchers looked at back in 2001 and they found that Economically based or just like how happy are you? No, here's the thing. It was how happy are you? It was like a single question like would you say based on how you're feeling right now that you are fairly satisfied? Unsatisfied very satisfied with your life right now, right? And then they took that that measurement for that that country as a whole and you can do this for any country that participated in the survey and then they looked at inflation and then they looked at

unemployment for those years and they could figure out the the variation between or the the interplay between unemployment and inflation and satisfaction and they found that uh, the that um That unemployment was one time 1.7 times more miserable than inflation in regards to life satisfaction as that survey goes pretty clever. It's a lot of hocus pocus, but it's I thought it was pretty clever how they did it. That makes sense to me because to be without work Like if you have a job and things inflation is happening, you still have your job. Sure. And you're like, man This sucks to pay this much more, but you can still conceivably pay for it. Yeah, I'll cut back here or there Right. If you if you're unemployed, then there's not a lot of hope. Right. Yeah one that number might be conservative. Yeah. Yeah, I agree with you

Very interesting stuff sir, so that's uh That's it man. That's the misery index You got anything else? No, but I'm looking forward to hearing from economists That me too like in an unbiased way try to explain things me too if you if you send just you know these crazy political emails and They're they're going to fall in deaf ears because everyone yells at each other that they're right. I just want to hear some real numbers. Yeah Do it Chuck Uh, if you want to know more about the misery index, you can type those words in the search bar house to forks.com

And since they said search bar just plain old search bar. It's time for listener mail Uh, I'm going to call this uh Follow-up on vocal fry once again. Oh, yeah Oh, yeah, um regarding vocal fry guys, uh You guys were offended because someone said vocal fry was repulsive But there is another side to this dudes. I suffer from a neurological disorder known as misophonia Which we totally should do a show on this. I agree Uh, it's a condition where a person has extreme emotional response to commonly occurring sounds

Uh, and I remember hearing a lot of times just like people chewing noises or gum or whatever Um, he said in my case my trigger noise is the high pitched s sound. Uh, when some people speak Uh, it feels like my brain is cringing as if an allergic reaction is taking place Cannot stress enough. This is not a mere noise. It's a legitimate mental disorder that can vary great and uh, greatly in severity Uh, I don't visibly freak out when I hear my trigger noise, but it really kills me inside Uh, it gives me an instant headache and uh, it's why which is why I will get away from the noise if at all possible Um, I believe in avoiding complaining in life and playing the victim But this disorder really has made my life, uh, like a subtle hell

It's been especially toxic to my family relationships and my ability to learn in school Um, I felt compelled to email you guys because you uh, definitely appreciate interesting medical conditions I think it would be a great topic for a show someday Uh, there's a documentary about it called quiet, please if you watch the trailer You might be inspired to watch it to learn what the condition is. Oh, yeah Uh, huge thanks to everyone of stuff. You should know you make mundane parts of my life interesting and educational Uh, I'm gonna anonymize this. Okay from texas Because I didn't hear back from them from tex

Yeah, tex uh ps was a disbelief when chuck said he had not seen billy madison or happy gilmore That's a good ps. I believe it. It's a good post script and uh post Pps right not ps s. I think it's post post script. Yeah, but people who often put ps s It doesn't mean anything Uh, do you think stuff you should know could ever become a television show? Well tex never We actually did that we found out the hard way that it came. Yeah, we did a tv show on the science channel and uh It ran for one full season that played out over the course of several days, which we'll always have chuck We'll always have that season of television. We did once it lasted nine or ten days. Yeah, let's just show them all at once

Yeah out of order But you never know we might get a another shot at stardom But we're not looking to you know, I like it in this room where no one's looking at us. Yeah Jerry doesn't even look at us. No, she's just there looking away and disgust. That's right Uh, good idea about the mesophonia. I think we mentioned that before like that was I really like that vocal fry episode And that was the one thing that I wish we would have mentioned because it's a legitimate thing that it does affect some people Yeah, um, but yeah, look for a mesophonia episode at some point in the future tex If you want to get in touch with us, you can send us an email to stuff podcast at house stuff works dot com

And you can join us at our very own home on the web stuff. You should know dot com Stuff you should know is a production of iHeart radio for more podcasts my heart radio visit the iHeart radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite shows Hey, i'm lance bass host of the new iHeart podcast frosted tips with lance bass Do you ever think to yourself? What advice would lance bass and my favorite boy bands give me in this situation? If you do you've come to the right place because i'm here to help And a different hot sexy teen crush boy bander each week to guide you through life

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