Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 101 | Chicago Cubs | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: March 3, 2020

The Cubbies have a new manager and a lot of talent on the roster. Can they take over the NL Central again? They have to guys to do it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Oh, yeah, it's another T. P. P. Team profile and projection. Jake is with me. Trevor Plouf is with me. We're at the Sun and Fun RV Resort. Gotta go.

In Sarasota, Florida, sun is shining down brightly. We'll be blinding me in like a second, actually. It's piercing. And we're going to be talking about your cubbies. The Cubs. Love the Cubs. World Series champs. kind of a decent amount of time ago now, right?

2016? 16, yeah. This was supposed to be a golden kind of age for the Cubby. They're a, I guess they got to be a sleeper team. Great World Series, though, that year. Yeah. It's the Indians. Fantastic.

You had the Raja Davis home run of Chapman, but then the eventual Cubs victory. Yeah, that was great game. Good for you guys. Congrats the Cubs. Congrats. Well, we usually start the show with what the end. added in what they dropped. Not much.

And for the Cubs, it's not much. Cole Hamels is kind of a decent loss. Castiano's really helped them towards the end. He did. It was special for them. Big Castiano's fan right here. They didn't really add anyone, which I thought was kind of interesting. They had one of the most quiet off seasons, except a late non-raster invite that I know my guy, Trevor Plouffe, is all about.

Yes. Who's that? Spoiler alert, Jason Kipness. Oh, okay. Chicago Native, All-Star. All-Star. Maybe. Maybe.

I like his swing. I was saying that in the Indians mini episode, I was saying Kipnis, he just looked like a threat to me, just the way he stood. Really no analytics behind it. He's a ball player. Yeah. Got to love that about him.

They did add Jeremy Jeffries on a weird, like, really cheap contract. Yeah, if he figures it out, it's good. If not, it's nothing. Yeah. What do you mean figures it out? He's figured it out. He's a good pitcher.

He struggled last year, dude. He got, you know what, people struggle sometimes. He got released. It's okay. Okay. All right, that's really it. I mean, the nucleus of this team is still the nucleus of this team. There's a lot of rumors about trading Chris Bryant to clear space.

They didn't do that. I thought that was dumb, but it's still Bryant, it's still Rizzo, it's still Biase, still Schwarber, still Contreras. You'd like them to trade Chris. Me? Yeah. Why? You said that. You thought it was dumb?

They didn't trade it, or you thought it was dumb there was rumors about it? That was dumb. There was rumors. Yeah, me too. I said from the start, I didn't understand. This is still a really good team. Yeah, look at everyone his name. I said, like, even they were talking about trading contours because Cap Space, that's some mooky bet shit.

Like I was saying, that's dumb. Yeah. Try to win. These guys are all relatively young, too. Besides Jason Hayward's probably a little older now, but I don't even know his age. But looking at this lineup, I mean, they're all. He's 30 and 30.6 years old. I mean, not that bad.

He came up young, young. Yeah. And their rotation still is pretty decent. You got Darvish, Kintana. Hendricks, Lester, and then Chatwood, who was hurt last year, and now on a contract year. Contana's also on a contract year. Let's, uh, can we start with the pitching a little bit? Because I think the main chunk of this Cubs lineup, everyone knows.

Rizzo, Brian, Baez, Contreras, I mean, all the dudes we just named. The pitching in, uh, I'll kick it to you, Trev, because I, I should have asked this before, but did you face Darvish? I faced all these guys. I looked at the projected starters I faced them all. Did you face Dirty Darvish? sloppy Darvish. I face Texas Rangers Darvish and he was very good. There's actually a GIF that is out there that I've put out there as well because it's so funny. Lean into it. He was balling in Texas, throwing 96 and he hit me with one of those bugs bunny curves. Oh, really? And I was so far out in front of it. It's just, it's a funny clip. So like, and I got a lot of shit for it. Like people were like, you know, like posting it. I think it was on the not top 10 maybe, stuff like that. A little known fact, I got a hit off them.

Okay. Not a bad, so. But it was a bad swing. Every story. And I'm okay with it being shared because it's like so ridiculous. It just kind of shows how hard it is. John, when you see the rotation, do you think Darvish, I mean, sticks out? Like, if he has a good year, we've got the Cubs in it?

Or do you think that's not a big of the factor? I see a lot of guys past their prime. Okay. Like, Darvish, well, you just called him. Did you face Dirty Dharvish or did you face Sloppy Darmich? Right. He had a better year. He had a big second half last year.

He can't win at Riggley. Is that still a narrative? I think he got over. He had a really good second half last year. This is a lot of old media speak we're doing right now. Sloppy Darvish, old Darvish. I mean, it was a story. It was a story.

But I mean, that's for me, and that's why I brought it up, was that I think if Darvish's lights out one, Like, I think this Cubs team has a lot of merit And is in every conversation If he's not I mean, Kintana's going to do his thing Hendricks I like But I think Darvish makes them a different team If he's the dude he can be

I like Hendricks I like nerdy smart pitchers Yeah, he's good I don't think Darish has to be like an elite one guy Can he be that yes But I don't think he has to be I think of all these guys If you look at them

Even if they just hit their projections I mean, we're looking at it right now. We get Darvish projected at a 3-9, Quintana at a 3-9, Hendricks at a 3-6, Lester at a 4-1, and Chatwood out of 4-5. That is serviceable. That is going to get you to where you need to be as a team, especially with their lineup. I agree with that. I don't think they have a name that you're like, oh, damn.

But what they have is five MLB guys. You know what the stat that the John Boy stat that maybe Trump definitely doesn't know about? But it's like, I want to call it a compete stat. Like, when he's on the mound, do you have a chance to win? How many times is this dude going to completely blow the game? And these guys, it's not a lot. They're going to fight, they're going to grind, they're going to give you a shot to win every day.

One through five. I don't know much about Chatwood, but the first four, I think those are guys. Do we have, you guys got the internet up here and you're looking, do we have somebody pushing for the rotation? Anybody coming up that we need to know about or talk about? Not really, man. I was trying to dig in. And if you're a Cubs fan and you know something that we don't, let us know.

But yeah, I'll see if they brought anyone in in AAA. I got, let's see. They brought in not really. I feel like Jarrell Colton, Cotton. He's been around. Oh, Jerell Cotton, he's from the A's. I've seen him. He's got a Bugs Bunny change up.

Yeah, he shut the Yankees down one game. Yeah, I mean, he's a guy that, I don't know if he's going to come in and just, like, you know, be a savior in the rotation, but he's depth. Yeah, I think they have some depth, guys, and that's all. Yeah. No top prospect that I think Cubs are slamming the table saying get this guy up or anything like that. But, I mean, Darvish, Kentana, Hendrix, Lester, Chattwood. It feels it's a pretty good rotation.

If they're all doing their thing during the regular series season, they're going to win a lot of series. Yeah. Because you're not going to beat those guys a lot. Especially with the lineup. And then the new name for the lineup is Nico Horner. I think he's going to make the team out of camp. No.

I did some research on this. He skipped double it. and got a few bats last September. He played a lot of them in September. And he went off. First seven days he just went gangbusters. And he kind of came back down to earth, you know, as people do. But, you know, we know what the Cubs like to do with service time.

There was no secret there. We just had a big long talk about it. Chris Bryant going through it. He hasn't hit AAA at all. And I believe he'll probably start the year in AAA. So Kipness is the safety blanket there? Yeah, Kipness, and I think there's a couple other guys that could fill that role. I think, you know, we're talking about Bodie.

He can step in and play second base if needed. But I do like that non-raster. I mean, I think he still maybe could have demanded the major league deal, but, you know, where we are in the free agent landscape in the game of baseball, guys like that are taking these minor league deals. But I think he's got a good chance to make the team. And I do believe that he is not a safety blame, think it, but maybe like a placeholder for Nico.

If this, if this, if Nico goes and goes off and he's doing the thing and and Jason's up there and he's kind of just, you know, he's not tearing, you know, tearing the world up, I think we'll see Nico, but I'm thinking right now that I'd pencil in Jason Kibniss at second base for them. All right. Well, I mean, we're going to see how that plays out. Nico will be up at some point, I think. Yeah.

There's no doubt. Yeah. I just, you know, judging on how they handle service time and the fact that he hasn't played at all in AAA, I think he starts the year in AAA. All right. It'd be awesome if, like, he goes out and he has a great spring and they just said, hey, it's your job, but it doesn't happen that often. Yeah. It means adding to a, it doesn't really matter either because the rest of their lineup is pretty good. It's really good.

Last year they had, what is this, Jake? They had six guys with OPS Plus over 100. And that includes all the names that you know that already said. and David Bodie, Bodie? Yeah, you know, I think the biggest thing they're talking about right now in Cubs Camp is who's going to hit leadoff for us. They don't have a prototypical guy. They've had Bryant do it.

They've had Rizzo do it. Both those guys have had success. But, you know, traditionalists are like, you can't hit those guys at the top of the lineup. And I'm sitting here like, why not? Yeah, why not? Do it. I-O-B-P. Rizzo had a 405 on base percentage.

You put those guys at the top of the lineup. Pitcher comes in. those is warrant pitches and Anthony Rizzle steps in the box to start the game off. Chris Bryant steps in the box, start the game off. The pitcher goes, shit, I cannot throw a fastball

over the middle of the plate right now because these guys are going to lean back on it, put him in the grandstands. There's no getting comfy. One, nothing. I saw it with Dozier when I was in Minnesota. When we had him in the top of the lineup, he wasn't even a non-based percentage guy per se.

Decent, but not like these guys, but he had popped. And we liked him there. And I knew pitchers were like, dang, man. I can't lay one in. And then they kind of get a little bit, uh, uh, oh. They get a little bit scared.

One-oh happens. Then they know they got to come and boom. It's a different animal. When you have a guy that can put it in the seats hitting lead off, it's a different thing for pitchers to, you know, to adjust to. I've got a good generic sports talk line that I think you like. Okay. It's, I think it's used more in football, but it's the,

what does the opposing team not want to? see. And if I'm the opposing team, I don't want to start off, Rizzo and Brian. It's exactly what you just said. If you're going to throw, if you're trying to sneak some on base by Jason Hayward or someone like that, so you could get bodies on for those guys, if I'm the opposing team, I'm saying, hey, I would love to attack Hayward first batter in the game. So I think you're right there.

And yeah, I think that is a generic media thing of, they shouldn't bat Rizolita. The sports changed. Like he's going to get on a 40% clip, throw him up there. Nobody steals bases anymore, right? And if this is a team that only had Rizzo and Bryant and those are your run producers, guys that they hit the ball of the park, maybe you don't put him at the top of the lineup. But I'm looking at this lineup right now.

Say you take Chris Bryant and put him lead off. Well, you still got Rizzo behind them. Bayish, Schwerber, Contreras, I mean, in taps there. I mean, there's guys that can hit the ball of the park behind them. So let them get on base. The lineup turns over. Then who cares who's hitting lead off?

It's a strong top five. We've got to talk about something we haven't discussed yet, and this is what's new with the team. The biggest addition is a new manager. And they had a manager that is revered as a great manager, and they parted ways, quote-unquote, parted ways, and so we need something new. Because what happened last year?

Like, this team's good, and they didn't make the playoffs. Sometimes it happens, you know? Things don't go their way. Other teams have a... I think when you look back, I think they had a pretty bad September, right? It was weird. They went, they, like, would make.

make the push, close the gap. They even were in first place at some point in, like, August or September. The Cardinals turned it on. Cardinals turned it on. Brewers turned it on. Yeah. So sometimes that happens. Yeah.

Well, anyway, they bring in Ross. Do we like the Ross? He won a World Series with these guys. Yes. He's been a companion, you know, a player with them, and now he's the manager. And that's weird. Like, when Joe Girardi had to then manage Jeter and Posada, it was not, like, fun the first season. There was all these weird stories.

He was trying to be off the time. authoritative. It doesn't seem like Ross is going to be that guy at all. It seems like he's going to be like, do whatever you want. Is he Tulex? I know I'm going to ask you this question. I think I know your answer to doesn't matter. I think you're going to say not really. There's a fine line there for sure. You know, and I think when you're talking about Gerardi, that was a different time. And people expected things out of a manager that don't expect out of a manager now. You know, right now, let's face it, it's the front office is pulling the strings. They're going to send the line up down. They're going to tell them the matchups. Everything's going to be written. out for him, including, you know, percentages to use guys off the bench, percentages to bring

the bullpen out, when to do it, that's all going to be mapped out already. So his job, as a manager, new age managers know this, and the guys that are successful now, they're guys that can handle a clubhouse and can handle the media, and they can just kind of be that the calming presence, the steady, the steadiness. And I think he's got that. I mean, you know, he wrote a book about being the consummate teammate. So he understands the clubhouse atmosphere, and I think he's going to be able to navigate this just fine.

And really, we're talking about managers. It's about the players. I think David Ross is going to do just fine there. I think players respect him. He walks that fine line of respect and buddyness. So that's a tough line to navigate, but, you know, I think Rocco Baldelli does it in Minnesota, and I think Dave's going to do it in Chicago.

Yeah. And Boone does it. Yeah. And I'm interested to see. I don't feel strongly about it either way. But when you think about the names you mentioned. Like Rocco, we met him the other day. He was awesome.

But none of those guys on the team played with Rocco, maybe one of the pitchers. And Aaron Boone with the Yankees, him and Cici had played. Now Cici's gone. But that was the one overlap. I mean, Ross was in it with these guys. And I'm not saying good or bad way, but if this team does have a bad month or something like that, I think that is going to be just a really interesting dynamic

because he was there. I think as a teammate, he was almost the same as he's going to act as a manager where it's like, yeah, we're buddy buddy, but when you need to be slapped a little bit on the slap you a little bit. All right, I like that. We have the over under here, which before the show, Trev said you have a pretty big lean on this. Well, I don't know what it is.

I'm looking at the projections here on rotor wire, but I don't know what the Vegas line is. Okay. Yeah, the Vegas line is 88.5. Oh, wow. Is it tough division? 88 and a half? Reds are going all in.

Cardinals are good. This has them, I'm looking at a page now that has them projected at 85 and 77. If it was 85, I'm heavy leaning around on the over. But now we're talking 88 and a half. And that's your, when you close it, on that 90 win number. This is from the lines.m.m.m.com slash MLB win totals points sheet, points bet, 20. When you start talking about 90 wins, that's the separator opinion, a really good team.

Right. You get to 90 wins, you get a really good season. So I don't have a heavy lean now that I know that's the number, but I lean that they're going to be close to that number. I think they're going to be in position here. Do I like what the Reds have done? Yes. got a lot of friends on the pod from the brewers.

Like what they have, but I don't think they're going to be there with the Cubs and the Reds. The Cardinals will see what happens with them. If I had to lean, I'm going to lean over. I think there was a little bit of reasoncy bias with a lot of people. Saw what happened last year. They didn't have a great year. Let's not forget, you look at run differential. I don't have that pulled up, but I remember I looked it up a couple days ago.

They still had a very good run differential. That's kind of telling with the team. So I'm going to lean over on that And I think that they have a good chance to win this division I think it's a great over-under Like if you were to tell me the 85 through 90 range That's exactly where I'd fall in So I do think the division got better

I think what you're saying is right Like they're still really good That lineup is phenomenal I don't know what happened But I'm going to go under I think it'd be barely under Like I said like I don't know if any team in this division Is going to really put up like a 93

90s like mid-90s win season. I think they're going to beat each other up. They beat each other up last year, and the Reds weren't even a part of it. I like what the Reds have done. I do. I know. So I think this division is going to beat the shit out of each other.

I'm going to take the under. But you know what? The Reds, what they do? They won the off season. How many times you've seen a team win the off season? I mean, the Yankees maybe won the off season, right? But the Reds had a really good off season. That doesn't actually translate onto the field.

I do like the moves. I do think it's going to be tight. But, I mean, again, I just think this. I'm not pagan. I'm not pegging the Reds. win, like, be an amazing team, I just think they're going to be much more of a hassle for people in the division.

Yeah, I don't know. I also lean under. The division is brutal. Like, the Cardinals, I don't think the division's brutal. Are you thinking brutal and, like, their teams are good there? Yes, yes. Like, it's brutal to get through, excuse me. So the Cubs, I just found it out.

I'm sorry to cut you off. Plus 97 run differential last year. It's good. I mean, that's really good. Sure. I mean, they're probably fourth in the league or maybe fifth in the league last year. And hey, maybe Rossi comes in. They've got some good juice, but I don't know.

For me, the Cardinals are just going to be there. They're a well-run organization like that guy at the top of the rotation. I know you do too. Got to love, Jackie. The Brewers, I mean, they find a way. They push to the playoff line without Yelly. He's going to be back. And then who's the other team?

I'm blanking on. The Reds. The Reds. Reds got a lot better. They're the team that's going to dictate this over-under. If the Reds are good, the Cubs are going to be under. If the Reds aren't, the Cubs are over. I'm thinking that the Reds are going to be a pretty good baseball team under.

This is something that I wanted to mention, and I forgot about it. Mention it. Cubs last year, they have a good home field advantage there. Wrigley. They know how to play that field. Last year, they were 51 and 30 at home. That means they were 33 and 48 on the road. That's going to correct itself.

They're not going to go 33 and 48 on the road again. Yeah, Madden making them dress up and on all their road trips. They were like, hey, we're tired of it. We're sick of it. Sick of it. Year four of that? What was it? Right.

Year four of having to wear like all camo every time you go on the road. Like, come on, Joe, we're fucking loose. You're tightening us up now. Yeah. Let's just take it a little step back. I think even if they get back to close to 500 on the road, I mean, they're going to be a 90-win team. All right. And we are out.

Fun fact, David Ross and dancer Lizzie Arnold were runner-up in the 2007 season of Dancing with the Stars. How about that? And we are out. Thank you very much for listening. We'll be back tomorrow with another mini-episode. Go Cups. Fly the W. That what they say?

Yes, I think so.