Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 106 | Cincinnati Reds | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: March 8, 2020

Cincinnati is up next! The Reds are the family feud answer for winners of the offseason this year, but did they really do enough? They brought in Moustakas, Castellanos, and Akiyama on top of adding Bauer and Sonny Gray in 2019. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Oh, it's another team. Profile and projection. I'm sitting here at the studios with Jake, and we're going to talk about another NL Central team. I think this is the fourth NL Central team that we've done. And I think our voters got this wrong. I think they had the Cubs way down low. But they have the Reds above the Cubs.

They have the Reds above the Brewers. They have the Reds above the Pirates. We're doing the Cincinnati Reds. They did do a lot this offseason, Jake, to better their team. So I think people are already rewarding them in the voting system that our audience put together. But when we do the Cubs episode, I was like, I don't know, these are too low. But anyway, doing the Reds. We're excited to do the Reds.

We're excited to do the Reds. I think the problem with the NL Central is that we are not surprised if 4th. teams win the NL Central? Yeah, it's a crapshoot. So, I mean, that's where things get brutal. I mean, and we started running into better teams, I think, in the top 22, top 20 as we've been doing these. So, yeah, I mean, we feel that a lot of these NL Central teams could be interchangeable

by the end of the year. And I think we see the Brewers, excuse me, we just did the Brewers, I think we see the Reds a little higher because your favorite thing, they won the off season. They actually, their off-season is different than I thought Because I'm happy with their off-season I'm happy with the team they put together I'm actually like I just pulled up all the info that we always look at Newsflash, we look at a lot of stuff while we do these

So we don't sound incredibly dumb We just like to sound a little dumb A little bit of dumb Tastefully dumb It was less than I expected it to be When I did my little research Yeah The last year's stats

End the addition So the additions are as follows Nick Castianos agrees to a four-year contract. They got Shogo Akiyama. Shogo Aguyama. That's awesome. They got Wade Miley and Mike Mustakis. And I mean, what should truly be factored in here was the Bower trade.

Yes. It was a trade for this season. And the Sunny Gray trade last off season, because that wasn't for this, that wasn't for 2019 either, because they traded for Sunny and then signed them for an extension and it's all coming together. Their pitching staff's amazing.

I don't know if you want to start with there. Let's do it. Because I think you and I are going to end up either, I think we're going to end up being higher than we think because with Luis Castillo, Sunny Gray, and Trevor Bauer, I mean, you have a top three there that can dance with anyone. And honestly, Discalfani and Wade Miley at the back end of the rotation is pretty nice too.

Wade Miley had a pretty nice year last year. And I think Descalphani, I think he's a talented guy as well. 31 starts with an ERA under four. When you have those guys slotted in the back of your rotation, I mean, one through five, if they can keep those dudes healthy, I mean, they're going to shove. Descofani, 31 starts, ERA under four, ERA plus over 100. Descalphani. Descalfani.

Descalfany. It's a good season for him. It's a good season. And you know he's only 16? He's 16 years old. He was... That's not true. He was 16.

He was 16. At one point. He's 29 right now. He was 16. So, yeah, he's going to be 30 soon birthday coming up. So congrats on when you were 16, Anthony. And he's done it in the past. I mean, he had a 3-28 ERA 20 games in 2016.

He's a solid middle of the rotation guy. He's a guy. That's what they're going to ask for him. They got three dudes and two guys. guys in their rotation? Three dudes, two guys. Yeah. Yeah, that's fair.

Thank you. That's fair. Which is good. That's a good way to make up five. And I mean, Wade Miley had a pretty good year. So they've got a rotation and they've got the top end guys. I mean, Luis Castillo can pitch with anyone in this league. Sunny Gray when he's right, can.

And of course, Bauer Outage, who struggled when he came over. But, you know, he's still very talented. And he kind of came over into a weird situation when you're a traded at the deadline from a team that's in it to a team that's not in it. You don't see that happen a lot. And I think there was some bad luck involved. Wade Miley, real quick. What do you got on his name?

Don't love it, right? Don't like it at all. But no, it's tough. Would love the name Miley Wade. I was going to make that same point. Well, I made it. I was going to say his name's in the wrong order. Miley Wade.

Miley Wade, it's a great name. Wade Miley kind of blows. Wade Miley, yeah. Wade Miley, Wade would bully Wade Miley. Yes. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Easily.

That's, that's correct. So work on that, Wade. And then in the bullpen, I mean, Raisaliglesias, he's been doing it for a couple years now. He's solid. Amir Garrett. They picked up Strop. His claim to fame was the brawl last year, where he looked like the man. And he's a really good lefty arm.

Michael Lorenzen, two-way guy, Jim. So yeah Would you like another dominant arm out of the pen? Sure, every team would But this isn't a bad bullpen But you'd like one more exciting arm Michael Lorenzen had a good year last year Yeah man

Two-way, two-way Mike they call him No one's called him that I don't think anyone said that You're a liar Okay, so they're offensive numbers from last year Like they add moose, right? They had Castiano's and they add Shogo Yep

I don't know what Shogo is yet No. We know what Moose is. We know what Castellanos can be. Can I stop you? Yeah, what do we want? They didn't have a lot of guys. They didn't hit last year.

They didn't hit last year. They didn't hit last year. But, so they brought in some hitters, like you mentioned. And they had Eugenio Suarez, who had the Monster Year. Went off. But, dude, they've got options, man. Because, okay, so you said Shogo Akiyama. We don't know what he is yet.

Maybe he's good. Maybe he's not. I'll go, what is Shogo. But dude, if they don't use him, Nick Senzel, former top prospect from them, number two overall pick, he was the guy that was slated

to be there everyday center fielder. He can play, he's versatile, he can move all over. Philip Irvin, he's a guy that he's done some stuff in AAA and at the major league level. Like, he's just a bonus piece for him.

Aquino, I mean, they have dudes that they, Jesse Winker, going into my, my Mel Kuiper again. They have dudes at every position that can plug and play that, like, okay, if you're not into Shogo Akiyama, I could talk you into Nick Senzel. Like, I just think they have guys, and they're going to be able to do some fun lefty-righty stuff.

They've gotten a lot better offensively. Where's attestidis in all of this? So. No, if you don't remember, if you're not familiar, Akinis Arisidus Akinio Aris Akinio Fight me

He came up last year He's got a bizarre batting stance Like totally open Like playing with football with your buddy And just fuck it around Like you had a couple drinks You're just kind of leaning back Like totally

Throw it in there Belly button to his nose Just like hey here you go And then steps into it He hit 19 homers And I think 15 games 56 games That's close

Yeah 56 games James. He had a 891 OPS, which is actually funny because he came out of the gates insane, and then he went back a little bit. But yeah, I mean, right now he's kind of a bonus piece for him. Fangrafs has him starting the year in AAA, which I don't believe will happen. But, I mean, the fact that that's even in the conversation, they've got some death pieces.

Look at the squad they've put together. This is why I'm root for the race. They picked up Shogh, they got Vado. Eugenio Suarez is. is returning. Mike Mustakis, they picked him up. Nick Castellanos, they picked him up. They traded for Freddie Galvis at the end of last year.

Then they have Winkler and Barnhart. And they have, so like, you have a couple, like, what is it? Four guys that they either traded for it within the last year or picked up in free agency. And then the pitching staff, I mean, they traded for Sonny. They traded for Bauer. They picked up Miley. Like, they're doing it. They're going after it the best way that they can.

could this off-season. So that's why I'm rooting for them. I'm not rooting for them to like win the World Series or even, I'm not even rooting for them to win the Central. I don't care about that. I'm just rooting for them to be a good team. Yeah, because they went for it. They went for it. And that's, uh, we, we do want teams to be rewarded for that. Um, yeah, I don't know. I mean, if you're a Reds fan, you're fully bought in. You believe in the top three of your rotation. I mean, you can. Pitching's awesome. That top three is really cool. You can, you know, your, you're, your, your, you're, you're, you're, you're almost you're looking at a nationals light from last year.

You know, they've got the high end of the rotation. They've got, you know, a couple dudes you can believe in in the bullpen. And, I mean, it's, I wonder, I mean, we threw Eugenio Suarez out there casually, but the dude had a monster year last year. The dude hit 49 home runs. And, you know, we just came off our Brewers thing where we're like, hey, you got to know Kestanayorahira. You got to know Suarez.

man, 49 home runs, a 930 OPS, 134 OPS plus. You know, if the pieces, if Musakis comes in and does his thing, which there's no reason to not believe he will, Castellanos versus lefties, absolute monster. And again, maybe it was a little bit of change of environment, which hopefully this Reds team has as well, as long as Vado's getting on base. And they could use one other batter to step up,

whether it's Akiama or Senzel, whoever it is but this lineup is switchy and kind of good Shogo's an on-base guy at least in Japan he was Like that Like 380s 390s

Him and Vado just taking pitches all day Yeah he I mean he had a career I mean his last season 392 on base Is before that 403 Before that 398 Before that 385 Before that 419

So 1 2 3 4 his last 5 five seasons in the Japanese league. He's got it on base percentage of 3.85 or higher. You're going to talk about Tucker Barnhart? Our dude. Your best friend. I hate Tucker Barnhart. He'll be in here.

I'm on the record for that. He's going to be crushed, man. He says nothing but nice things. Have a big year, Tucker Barnhart. Why do they have a number next to his name? Why does baseball reference do that again? Where are you looking? That's both.

Tucker's a switch dude I think he's a lefty No he's both I'm telling you they have a hashtag they have a pound Next to his name on baseball reference Which means he's a switch hitter Catching switch hitter From Brownsburg, Indiana

Tucker Barnard You didn't get anyone else from his high school Baseball reference has him as a lefty only So it's look Or fan grafts so we've got a fan graph Baseball reference fight on our hands Yeah that's weird Baseball reference has him as a switch hitter.

Should we complain to both? Dude, you know what? I'm off fan graphs, though. They piss me off sometimes. You dove in deep and then they came back and nipped that you a little bit. So as a righty... He fall in love quick. As a righty, it says he has only 356 at bats.

So maybe he was a switch hitter early in his career and he kind of stopped that. This is when Reds fans were like, these guys don't know shit. These guys suck. These guys suck. Producer Dave, get on that. Find out what happened with Tucker Barnhart and tell us by the end of the show. Appreciate you. How does he hit?

Anyway, Tucker's a friend and an ally of John Boy Media, so we like him. Okay. It says his nickname is Barney, which is cool. It's fine. It's fine. Barnhart. His full name is Tucker Jackson, which is great. Wow.

Only 23 years old. What the fuck? that's not true that's when he made his debut DVD yeah Tucker Barnard's 29 of last year

August 2019 he started experimenting with being just lefty all right we gotta get to your mic for next time but so what I'm gonna need you to do apologize to fangrass is apologize to fangrass

I apologize to fangrass and I was gonna have you do something very different but years worked out and I also apologize for Tucker for not knowing that he gave up on switching. Which cracks me up.

It's a tough day, man. All right. Let's cut that. This blows. Someone came to him was like, Tucker. Cut the shit. I mean, I, well, you know, I've got some dark thoughts to me. But yeah, I mean, I've got myself staring in the mirror.

You can't switch it. Jake, Joey Vado's been declining, and it's a little sad. Okay. Are you, where are you with his skill? I know you don't enjoy his personality, but where are you? with his skill level. So this is going to be a big year to find out, man. I mean, what would we normally be saying about a guy going into his age 36 season

whose OPS has, you know, went down 200 points last year and then went down another 75 points the year after that? The Red still owe him a lot of money. He still gets on base. I mean, in a bad year, he got on base at a 357 clip. but I mean that's being removed from being the on-base leader the three years previous to that 434-4-544-417 so you know I do believe baseball you can have a down year and bounce back

he's got more help in the lineup than he has in past years so I'm interested to see I you know I think that Votto contract is kind of an albatross I mean Jesus he's getting paid 25 million a year till 2023. So if you're the Reds fans, you're hoping that he can at least get back to his 2018 season, where, again, when I say at least he got on base at a 417 clip, he had an 837 OPS. But, I mean, my dudes played in, let me do the numbers over the past two seasons.

In 287 games, so 144 games a season, he's averaging 14 homers a season from the first base spot. So he better begin on base enough because in a year where the juice ball was back, I mean, 15 home runs? If you're a Reds fan, you should be concerned. I mean, the dude's done everything for the Reds. He won the MVP in 2010 now. That's a while back. He was second in the MVP in 2017, though,

which shows how good he's been over that time period. I wouldn't say he's a question mark for the Reds, and it's not necessarily like, you know, Alvado's going to go this year is going to dictate anything for them. I mean, they've got enough pieces around him where it's not that. But I don't know. The difference between a 417 on base percentage, Joey Votto in 2018, and the difference between a 357 in 2019, that's a different ball player.

Just be serviceable and get on base because they're putting pieces around him for the first time. Like, they gave him that big contract and they were like, are they going to trade him? should they trade them because it's a crazy contract. And everyone thought they wouldn't be able to rebuild and be a contender while still in the duration of that contract. And now they are. So they have three years now window.

And I'm like rooting for that almost. Like it's kind of a cool narrative. Yeah. And I mean, Votto's been through it all with the Reds. I mean, they're projecting him to bounce back pretty well. I mean, who knows, I don't know well enough if he was nicked up last year or what was going on. But, yeah, I mean,

I know you're becoming a big OPS Plus guy. I mean, dude, his OPS Plus was in games he played 70 or more games. He had an OPS Plus over 150 from 2009 to 2017. There's only one year he played 62 games. It was under that. 2018, his OPS Plus went to 126. last year I went to 98 is a below average hitter technically. Bummer.

So I don't know. It's going to be interesting to see the whole lineup around him. And I'll be honest. You and I conflict on our Vado personality stuff. I think it's a little too forced for me. But on the field, I'm rooting for him to be good. I would love for him to bounce back. Because if the Reds have someone getting on base at a 400 clip at the top of this lineup,

You're going to be good. I have two ways I want to go. Give me the two ways. Do you want to do a team thing or an individual thing? It's two individuals. I just did a Vado thing. So I was looking at Luis Castillo. Yes.

Yes. Great year last year. Young dude, 26 years old last year, has a 3-4 ERA. He started 32 games, All-Star, really good. He changed his pitch mix dramatically. Which I always love a good pitch mix change. I think it's interesting. Yeah.

So in 2018, he was still good, but it wasn't the stud. No. It's a guy not dude. He threw his four seamer 36% of the time, and he threw his change up 26% of the time. And I believe they got a new pitching coach before 2019, right? The Vandy guy, the new sunny. Yep.

So last year, he actually threw his change up more than his foreseam. 90% of the time, he threw change up. No. Oh, that's my bad. That's my bad. That's my bad. 32% of the time he threw his change up, 29 his foreseamer, and his sinker is the 20% difference there.

But isn't that wild? Fastball change up. He throws really hard. Yeah. It's change up fastball for him now. That helps. Yeah. I mean, his fastball is 96.

It sits 96. So you would think that would be like, you know, in 2017, he started 15 games. He threw his four seamer 46% of the time. Two years later, it's down to 29. It's crazy. I like looking at that. And then you guys, you have fucking Sonny Gray. Oh, your guy.

I mean, no, his pitch mix is just because he just makes up pitches on the fly and all that. He actually, like, you know, an R2C2 podcast, he talks about how he learned his slider from Bauer, stuff like that. Right. 2019, Luis Castile was the April NL pitcher of the month, too. I think people want that. Like, look at, I know this is a visual thing. Look at Trevor Bauer over the year's pitch mix. Like that is insane.

In 2016, he threw his sinker more than any other pitch. He's never, it was never his second most pitch in any other year. But one year it's his most. Got to mix it up, baby. Keep them guessing. And then what's this pitch? His four seamer had dropped all the way down to 23. Last year was back up 38.

Because he started using Pintar. He started using Pintar at the end of the end of it. September and he's officially like fine I'll use it if everyone's using it I'll use it so look for more high fastballs from Bauer not from Sonny sunny doesn't like that all right the team thing was team thing talked about the Pythagrum theorem with the Brewers last episode pie thag the pie thag I think the Reds was amazing last year but they were losing if I remember correctly oh so you're going to run different I think I think I remember remember, maybe it might have died at the end, halfway through the season, but I remember at, like,

the halfway point there, run differential was really positive, but their record was average. Yeah, so they, um, I think they finished the year at minus 10, um, runs allowed, which Pythagorean theorem made them 80 and 82, which does feel a little different than the 78 and 87. Yeah. You know, that, that's closer, again, picture the free. So I, but I think halfway through the year was crazy. The, the, the free agency. And, and, um, the, the, the, the, the free agency. And, and, But I do think it's a part of this because the free agency they had, if you say you're adding, you know, Castellanos, Mustakis, Shogo, and Wade Miley, to a 500 team, you're like, oh, yeah, that's a team that should be, you know, in the playoffs and contention.

That's impact bats. That's everything. When you say, and I mean, Bauer's a factor in that too, because they got him at the trade deadline. When you put all that in the bucket with a 500 team, we'd be saying, yeah, like, let's go. They do land at 75 and 87 and what was it, 75 and 87, not a math pod. Yeah, 75 and 87. And that feels a lot different. Oh, 80 and 82, 75 and 87 is way to.

I mean, that feels a lot different. Seven game swing. So. Stupid that seven games can change our mindset after 162. Yeah, and we, I feel like we were doing this a lot early with the bad team. hoping for them to have good years. The start for this Reds team may be as important as they come.

Very unprofessional, Jim, throwing a ball around the room. But the start for this Reds team is going to be important because it's a little bit of a Padres effect. Let me bring up the schedule then. Because we're not going to really be able to believe in this Reds team until you start seeing it. It's true.

We got to do the over under here. Yeah. And I'm super upset with myself. Okay. What the fuck? Because you dropped the ball earlier? Literally. Now I guess currently.

So. No, because I want to take the over, but now I'm going to have the over with the Cubs, the Brewers, and the Reds. Right. And I was just being nice to the Brewers.

I would have rather take the over and the Reds than the Brewers. This sounds like a lot of you stuff here. That's what I'm saying. I'm mad at myself. So they open up against the Cardinals. Then the Blue Jays, interesting.

Then the Pirates and the Brewers. than the Brewers and the Phillies and the Giants. So what do you think? That's okay. You know, you want to, it's kind of our secret theory of baseball. It's like, keep it 500 against everyone else and then beat up on the bad teams.

So if they can do that with, what is it, the Giants and someone else in there was bad. Blue Jays and Pirates. Yeah, yeah. Oh, I think Blue Jays are okay. But yeah. So I don't know. the Reds need to believe in themselves,

the fans need to see it, and they need to not let any of the traditional NL Central powerhouses pull ahead of them because that's just going to be a mind fuck. They come to Yankee Stadium in early April, mid-April. We got to get Tucker and Bauer in here. Do you tell them to come through? Yeah, Bauer, yeah, for anyone

that doesn't know I went and flew to and hung out with Bauer and Clevenger, well, yesterday as we were recording this, awesome. They were really nice guys. Yeah, really, and I told them to come by and they said, yeah. Perfect. I mean, they're trying to do media stuff. Amen. Get that.

Over under. The over under is 82 and a half. Same exact over under as the brewers. How about that? How about that? Was it? I believe so. I can find it again.

Yeah, yeah. Cool. These might have changed over the course of spring. Right. They all got. They shouldn't have too much. No, not for these teams. But yeah.

I'm going over. You went over with the Brewers? I went over with the Brewers. Do you go over with the Cubs? I don't remember. I think I went under because I think the whole David Ross thing is a little weird. I think I went under with the Cubs too. Okay.

I did. I did because I said like I think they're going to win. It doesn't matter anyways. You said that you shouldn't take the over under too seriously. So what do you feel about when you see the Cincinnati Reds and the over under? Over. And I took the under with the Cubs. I took the under with the Pirates.

we'll see what I do with the Cardinals coming up but I'm not too upset with myself anymore Okay Jimmy's not upset with himself anymore Thanks for listening I said I'm not too upset with him The fun fact here that our producer wrote on the notes Is that Trevor Bauer is the only pitcher To miss a start or something

Because of the drone injury It's true We talked about that Do you know that I thought he was like trying to catch his drone or something No He was just playing with it He was calibrating at 3 a.m.

And his hotel room. Turned on, sliced his hand. Yeah. It sucks. Dummy. That's how it goes. Life. It's how it goes in life and love.

Thank you. If you're going to be dumb, you got to be tough. And we're out. See you guys tomorrow. Try to pass you the ball. What's up, dude? That was not a pass. There's another drop.

That's a pass. That was a pass. That was a pass. You're a mess.