Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 108 | Philadelphia Phillies | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: March 10, 2020

The Fightin Phils have reloaded and they look good at this time of year again. Do we think the moves made this offseason take the Phillies to the next level? Let's talk about it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

back to another TPP team profile and projection. And on today's episode, we are doing the 2020 Philadelphia. Phillies. The Filly Fillies, which cracks me up. Doesn't take much sometimes. It doesn't take much. It's good. I mean, you just picture any other team.

Yeah. The New York Yorkers. Right. The New York New Yorkers. The Chicago, Chicago's, but we just accept the Phillies. Yeah. We just accept it. Absolutely.

Even though it's weird. It's all right. It's normal when you think about uncreative people from like the 20s. Yeah. People are so dumb going back in time. It makes sense that they'd be called the Phillies, right? Watch an episode of Mad Men and there's pregnant ladies smoking. Yeah.

Smoking in general's dumb. A little bit A lot of it Smoking weed No There you go Smoking weed Has a drastic effect on you

And doesn't hurt your health The Phillies Talk about a bunch of smokers People from Philadelphia I just attacked their whole culture Geez I thought this was going to be a nice episode For Philly fans

You're going in You're going at their core Not even the baseball team Yeah I think if you I think the North From Philly to Boston is like the smoking cigarettes region of America. Okay, that's better. Yeah.

When I moved to- I thought you were just solo in Philly. I was like, they like their six. They like their six. That's a tough break for Philly. I think so. When I moved to California, like no one smoked cigarettes and I moved back here, like in high school and college.

Right. Everyone did. It's definitely a cold winter northeast type thing. That's what the cool kids do. The Phillies changed a lot, Jake. Yes. New manager. New shortstop.

New pitcher. And these people's names are, they brought in Joe Girardi. Joe Girardi, he's the manager. Zach Wheeler? Is he the pitcher or the shortstop? Pitcher. Pitcher. Should have closed those windows?

That's a plane flying by. It's a plane. Earthquake. You talked through it. Five-year contract for Wheeler. They brought in Neil Walker. Dede Gregorius was a shortstop. Did he Gorgorius was a shortstop.

You're right. They have a fucking ton of minorly invitations to camp. They've got veterans actually trying to make the team, which is fun for some odd reason. They have so many minor league contracts. Disco, Neil Walker, Josh Harrison, and those are guys that are kind of penciled in to make the team as of now. Ex-pirate teammates?

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Ronald Terreas? Toe, little baby Toe, Mickey Moniac. No, I'm confusing Mickey and Mikey. Mikey Matook, he's the MLB guy. Mickey Moniac's a big prospect. Mikey Matuck looks like he needs to be punched in the face. I don't know anything about him, but he has a very punchable face.

You and Mikey have always been on bad terms. And then, yeah, in the bullpen, I mean, they've got a litany of guys. I know you like when I say words. Logan Forsyth forgot to mention him. He's trying to make it. But in the bullpen, like Tommy Hunter, he's coming back. He actually got a major league deal. So then it's Blake Parker, Francisco Liriano.

You probably remember that guy, Anthony Swarzak, Bud Norris. Anthony Sourzak we think is a friend of the program. Yeah. He thinks him and... He likes Plouf. Him and Trevor Pluth have gotten into trouble back in the day. So the Phillies are a good team. Zach Wheeler and Deity are the big ones.

I guess Zach Wheeler's the big one. I mean, $100-plus million contract. Didi's just on the one year. Where are you at with the Phillies? I have no idea. Some good moves. I mean, I think the manager change was really smart and necessary. Right.

We went to Philly's camp, And if you don't know this already, Jake and I are Yankees fans. And they have so many ex-Yankees in the clubhouse. We were in the clubhouse. Like they have David Robertson, D.D. Gregorius. Joe Girardi, Topper, the bench coach, Rob Thompson, Little Baby Toe, Ronald Torres. Swarzak was a Yankee for a while.

McCutcheon is there. Neil Walker was a Yankee. It's crazy. Price Harper was a fan. Bryce Harper was, oh, man, he used to just dream. He used to actually, for Halloween, he just paint pinstripes on his face and walk around town calling himself a Yankees. If you have a pick of that, send that over. It was in Beckerson.

Send that over. Cutch? But anyway, I like what the Phillies are doing. They should have been good last year and they weren't, which was odd. Like, their lineups good. I feel like their pitching was really bad last year, and they had a lot of injuries and stuff going on. Robertson went down. McCutcheon went down.

Trying to see who else. There was kind of the weird, it felt like there was a weird Harper adjustment period. He got off to a slow start again and then he turned it on late. So I'll give some Phillies fans some insight here. When we were going to camp and we were talking to guys, we were in the clubhouse, we were walking around, just chatting and I'm not going to pull any direct quotes or name any names. Sure. But I will say confidently that the vibe and there was some words spoken that like,

how's the new manager? And they're like, oh, man, like. Yeah. We didn't realize what we were missing in prior seasons. Yeah, and it doesn't have to be shots fired at Kapler. I think it can be more of, it's more of a compliment to Gerardi. The whole regime. Yeah.

And, well, I think the best way to do this is to compliment Gerardy. Girardi's a really well-like manager with a really good track record. And he's had a couple years to step away from it. And it'll be interesting to see because he's seen, I mean, he essentially got, fired for being too controlling and I don't want to say militaristic but just a traditional manager. He was there for 10 years. I think the Yankees were going to move on no matter what. Yeah, the voice kind of got old, but he's also like kind of hard on the guys. And after 162, I mean, that's the opposite of every manager now.

It's to babysit them and have fun and keep things loose. And Gerardie wasn't that guy. But he has that personality. He just kind of didn't bring it to the managerial role. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. But mostly what they were talking about was like actual structure. Right. And guidance.

Yeah. They were like, we were missing that the last couple years and we have it now. And you just, they didn't realize. Some of the guys we talked didn't realize it at the time. Yeah. So it was interesting. So Phillies fans, your players are excited. They feel like they have direction now.

Yay. Yay. They. They need Wheeler to be good. I kind of didn't realize that. They paid them a lot of money to be their number two. In my head, I thought that Wheeler was going to kind of come. come in and be like their three guy, but he's, he's penciled in the two hole and they,

they need a big year from him if this team wants to compete because that's kind of the weird thing going on in my head right now, Jimmy, is I think when we did the Mets, TPP, team profile and projection, we were on, we were on the RV, the RV was literally driving and was making some good Mets jokes about that. I think if the Phillies and Mets rosters were switched and the, and the, the New York Mets team was called the Philadelphia Phillies, we would be really high on that team. I think if the Phillies roster was on the Mets,

we'd be like, this team doesn't have a chance. That's an interesting thing. Because we really liked the Mets roster, but the Mets have the Mets stigma to them. Yeah. This is deep analytics, but I think you're right. I think if you put this roster in the New York Mets uniforms, I'd be like, this is going to get fucked so easily.

Their pitching is kind of whatever. The lineup's great. So we'll go back to that in a second. But this pitching makes you nervous. Like, yes, Aaron Nola is a great young pitcher. He got off to a bad start last year. He can be really good. They still ended pretty decent.

I mean, he ends with an under 4 ERA and a 116 ERA plus. Yeah, Aaron Nola is a great one to have on top of the staff. Wheeler makes me a little nervous. And then you get into Arieta, Velasquez, Eflin. and I don't know. I'm getting worried, and especially when you compare this to, you know, if you're going to be playing three,

four game sets against the Mets, the Nats, and the Braves, like just thinking about those teams, I don't know. I'm worried about the Phillies pitching. That being said, we haven't talked about the lineup, and the lineup is really good.

Yeah, Velasquez is a really interesting pitcher, man. Have you looked at his, like, starts? What are you seeing, Jimmer? Just a classic, like, doesn't get out of the fifth inning or barely gets out of the fifth inning while giving up three to four runs. Right. So you're like, okay, dude. You're not winning and you're not losing.

Winning and you're not losing. You're not killing us, but you're not helping us. Right. And it's more, I would lean more in the bad than the good when he does that every fifth day. Like listen to this game log to end the season. five innings pitch three earned runs five innings pitch three runs two point one seven bad five two like that's okay good then three innings pitched one earned runs so that's bad um four point one four five two good but not great four two you know what I mean it's just like he's there he he's doing

something he's there um can you be like brutally mad at him like I don't know you he's a tough guy you think he's there for doesn't matter and Then, I mean, for me, then we go into the bullpen, and I mean, man, the bullpen doesn't make you go crazy either. They did bring in Batances, we forgot about. No, they didn't. That's the Mets. I always think about Gerardy and Batanzas. Like, if the Mets bullpen was on the Phillies, we'd be like, that's a great bullpen.

But we don't say that because it's the Mets and they're a disaster. We were pretty complimentary to the Mets. We were pretty complimentary, and so far we haven't been high in Philly, especially with the smoking stuff. But, I mean, even looking in the bullpen, man, like, Hector Norese, He had a really good year last year as the closer. I mean, that's a guy you can believe in. Jose Alvarez was solid. Suarez is young, but I don't know, man.

I mean, Sir Anthony Dominguez, did he figure it out? He was supposed to be kind of their solution at closer. He had an okay year last year. Sir Anthony. Sir Anthony. I don't know. Right now, I'm currently concerned about the pitching. Damn.

Because every other team in the division has pitching. That's true. It's a tough division. It's a tough division. All right. Wheeler can be good. Correct. I mean, he's got the stuff.

He should be good. He should be good. And, hey, we were at Philly Spring Training and we saw they had the cool new analytic stuff going. And Wheeler got paid because he had a really nice year last year. I think Zach Wheeler could have been even better last year if you look at some FIP numbers and all that and all that jazz. Well, the Mets fielding wasn't really...

Yeah, and the Mets don't use defenders. So, I mean, over the past two years, Wheeler's pitched 60 starts, so 30 starts a year. There's some math for you. Strikeout per inning. So he can be the good number two on the staff, but they, they like need him and Nola to be good. Because, I mean, Areietta you can't bank on right now.

Velasquez, you just went through that. Eflin, I think he was solid last year, but also his FIP was terrible. So I don't know. Right now, a little nervous about the... the Phillies pitching staff. Areetta coming off injury? Yes.

Okay. So maybe he'll return to form. So yeah. I mean, maybe there's something there, but he was starting to decline a few years ago. I know. I was surprised. I told my brother-in-law's brother that I thought Arenda was a bad signing for the Phillies. I mean, his ERA has gotten worse.

His special years with the Cubs felt special. Yes. Not like they were going to be the norm forever. Oh, okay. You know what I mean? Kind of. He was really good for two years. Well, yeah, I know that's my point.

I don't think, like, even when that happened, I was saying at the time, I wouldn't sign him long term because I don't think that projects. Well, and you also saw him on the Orioles when he was terrible. I didn't even know who he was at that point. Yeah. He was a no name. So, I don't know. He had three really good years in Chicago. Like he was the same way I think about Gossmann now.

Ooh. So if Gossman has a really two good years, I'm not like, okay, Gossman, go sign him to a five-year. contract. I mean, that's tough. I mean, he won the Saoyang, and he had a couple Sy Young voting years around that. I know. I'm not saying that his good years weren't good.

I'm just saying I think there were huge albatrosses. I mean, that's tough. That's three years out of his nine-year career. So I don't know. But his ERA has gotten worse the past four years. Ten-year career. Coming off injury. Three, nine, I don't know.

Not a math pod. A couple injuries in there. So, I don't know. They need Arieta to be. A guy. Yeah. A guy. He doesn't have to be a dude.

He needs to be a guy. They barely have a dude. They've got one and a half dudes. Nola's a dude. Wheeler's a dude. He could be a guy so easily. Could easily be a guy. He leans guy.

He could be a dude too. He leans guy. It'll be interesting to see. You like him much more as a three than a two. Love Wheeler as a three. Hate him as a two. So I'm saying there, guy dude. He's a guy.

He leans guy. It's tough. He's right in the middle. So I don't know. Let's, um, the pitching and, hey, maybe they can snag a guy where we've mentioned a few times that, you know, guys like Archer, Alex Cobb, who knows will be available at the trade deadline. The Phillies will probably be looking for arms all year. Good news is they probably won't be looking for a lineup because they got a really good lineup. Yeah. Realmuto. You about lead off? Arguably the best catcher in baseball. I read recently that they're thinking about having him.

the leadoff hitter. Have some fun. Romuto, Gene Seguera, Bryce Harper, Reese, Hoskins, Jay Bruce, Dede, Scott Kingery, and Adam. How you pronounce that? Hasley. Hasley. I think they can mix that up with when McCutcheon's healthy. Yeah, McCutche will come back. You know, the non-roster invitee is like pretty cool. They're really having an open tryout. Yeah. Like Josh Harrison, Neil Walker, Loebuckians. baby toe. Who else is part of that? Logan Forsyth. Yeah. Yeah. That's fun. That's fun. Because like Fanggrass has two spots on their bench open for two guys are going to get that. And you think you'd see that more, but you don't. No. Spring matters to these guys.

Yeah. And maybe there's a little Girardi effect. More veterans instead of a lot of teams these days would say, hey, let's give young guys a shot in those roles, but they're bringing in MLB type guys. But yeah, man, I think it goes overlooking. You can do some funky stuff with this lineup. And I guess a big chunk of it, where do you fall on Reese Hoskins? I think he's, I don't know this. Philly's fans, if you're listening. Q me in.

Is there a big debate over Reese being good or bad in Philly fandom? Because old school fans that still just look at batting average. Oh, there has to be. There has to be a contingent of elderly Philly fans. This guy sucks. He'll leave that's 220. Everyone's grandpa hates Reese Hoskins. Because, I mean, he's got 110 OPS plus last year and 819 OPS, but like his on-base percentage is so much higher than his batting average.

It's crazy. 226 batting average, 364. I got to shut that window. Yeah, I would pencil in Reese for a pretty big year. He led the major leagues in walks last year. And I don't know. I mean, he's just a dude who, he came up. up. He'll never be as hot when he came up. He went on one of those crazy Homer

streaks, a Kino style. And then he had a really good sophomore season. And yeah, he just took a, he had kind of a may year for what I think Reese Hoskins could be. Again, led the leagues and walks, got on base at a 364 clip. When he's right, when Harper's right. And I mean, this lineup is going to be deep. I mean, the guys you mentioned, Real Mudo, arguably the best catcher in baseball. Jay Bruce is always going to give you an at bat. Dede. was in the middle of the Yankees lineup the past couple years when they were doing historic things. Gene Segura, a really good ball player.

So, King or IT guy. Should we do a little IT guy? Should we do a little PSA for Phillies fans about D-D? Like what you're getting, what to expect, what to be excited about? Sure. He's pretty fun, his character. Got a lot of talents. He can draw.

He spent his off-season learning how to video edit, which was crazy story. Like in his off days, he just went to Yes, Network. and taught himself how to edit video is better than me at it now. Incredibly talented. Speaks five languages. Baseball-wise, really good defensive shortstop. Consistent, can make the flashy plays, but makes all of the easy plays.

Yeah. Firearm. He says that he probably unloads his arm like five times a season. Yeah. He's got a really strong arm. I'd say underrated defensively because he is a tier below the special defensive guys, the Andrewton Simmons and those guys. but coming from a Yankees fan's perspective,

there is a fear factor that they're going to miss Didi's president at shortstop. And they have, like, Glaver Torres jumping in. It was also pretty talented guy. And, yeah, Didi don't, here's what you shouldn't expect from Didi. Opposite field power. No. He has never gone Apo Taco? Home run.

I don't think he's ever had an opposite field home run. But he's got a really, it's not like a beautiful lefty swing. He kind of drops the hammer on balls. Yeah. But if he gets into a groove, he's good. He had one prolonged slump with the Yankees and then some injury stuff. Other than that, good guy. I mean, right now.

Oh, not a great base runner. Not a great base runner. No. Yeah. So there you go. That's what you need to know. I might have been the first time base running was brought up on the TPPs. Yeah.

Wow. Tough break, Dedy. Tough break. Friend of the program. But, yeah. I mean. There's a birthday with me. There's just, and when you get McCutche,

involves like this team is going to work you. Harper, Hoskins, McCutcheon are huge OBP guys. And then everyone's got power. So, I mean, they are your modern day lineup. They got a bunch of guys that can get on. They've got a bunch of guys that are going to hit double-digit home runs. Do we need to talk on Harper more? I think because it's a Philly's podcast or, you know, an episode like, yeah.

Yeah. He's either the most overrated or underrated guys. guy in baseball depending who you talk to in a given moment. It's true. First round pick, phenom, cover of the cover of whatever at like age 16. I mean, yeah, man, his numbers are good, but not special. He came up with trout. He has a career 897 OPS.

He has a career 137 OPS plus. Great, good numbers, really good numbers. But I understand people that are like he's no trout. It's like, because trout's fucking the. Nobody's trout. Ever. And I'll go hands up. It was a joke in our PFB chat when they first came up.

We did a Trout Harper thing all the time. And I was like, let's give Harper some time to figure it out. And then when 22-year-old Harper won the MVP, I was like, hey, maybe we do have something here. Mike Trout might be the best player ever, ever, ever. So, you know, when you put what Harper has done and you don't compare him to Mike Trout, I think we'd still like Harper. You want to see him healthy. And you want to see him, if I,

remember correctly, I think the past two years, he's just gotten off to bad starts. It doesn't like curve balls, Jake. There was the All-Star game, a year where he was in the home run derby in, what was it? It was in Washington. So, yeah, last year, he won it. Right, but he had a terrible first half. And they were saying, should he even be in it? Because people wanted to do that stuff because they forget it's just a show.

Pure entertainment. But, yeah, last year, Harper, first half of the season, 839 OPS, second half, 941 OPS. Okay, Bryce, come on, buddy. 2018. Let's see if my memory serves me correctly. It rarely does. Basically the same thing.

He was an 833 OPS in the first half last year, 9.72. So they need to figure out, they need to do that trick when you have a pitcher that gets roughed up in the first inning, that you do fake first innings or you try different things. They need to do that with Harper because they need to convince him the second half is the first half. Yeah.

They also, so they had a big problem when he couldn't hit breaking balls last year. Sure. And Mickey, same. Not Mickey Calloway. Gabe Cabler, same dude. Brought out,

brought out the curveball machine. Right. Pitching machine. Yeah. The curve balls. Your favorite. And Harper was like, I'm,

some people can do that. I'm not going to do that. Right. And they're like, it's kind of for you, man. Yeah. Like, he hit 199 batting average against breaking balls last season.

With, with, he hit 195 batting average against breaking balls last season. season with an expected batting average of $199. He was just awful against the breaking ball last year. Big bad. 50% whiff rate. And what I'll say is...

He's never been great. Like that has been his kryptonite because he's got that weird swing that for a curveball just doesn't match up to me. I mean, he's been great. He won an MVP. Against, I mean, never been great against off speed. Gotcha. But last year was worse than the worst.

Yeah. And hey, who knows he's had a lot of. of injuries and, you know, baseball keeps getting crazier and crazier that, you know, when you're third and fourth at bats, you're going to see a guy that throws a hundred and he has a wicked slider. So, and maybe Bryce struggles with that. I'm personally, I'm rooting for a huge Bryce Harper season, and I think you should be too. Bryce Harper is great for the game of baseball, whether you hate him or you're unsure. Well, even if you hate him, that's what makes him great for baseball. Exactly. You have a thought about him. You know, he's got the mullet now. He's got

the facial hair, lean into it. Um, But, yeah, I mean, the guy, the guy quietly over the past one, over the past five seasons, he averages 33 home runs and 97 RBIs with, you know, a 400, an over 400 on base percentage. So the guy is really good. He's not Mike Trout because nobody is. And, yeah, how about that? Okay. That's good.

Do you think they should lock up Real Mudo? I wouldn't have a problem if they do. I think, I mean, Real Mudo is as solid as they come. You know, he's a guy that can win you a silver slugger and a gold glove behind the plate. Okay, next combo. Sure. Before we wrap it up. Turns 29 this month.

Who's playing on a contract year? D.D. Gregorius is. He took, like, a pillow deal, cushion deal, whatever you want to call it. Jay Bruce is. Sure. Tommy Hunter. D. Rob is, and he's, says. Eddie Fells good, said he thinks he's going to come back earlier than expected from Tommy John.

Hector Nerris is, so two relievers there. D. Rob would be big for them if he could come back nice. That would help stretch out that bullpen pretty well. J.T. Romuto and Jose Alvarez are both on contract years. And prospect-wise, the guy that everyone's talking about is Alec Baum. Yeah. Potential third base guy is supposed to have a really good bat. He's probably going to get a chance this year.

again, if he turns out to be special, that would be an interesting guy to add to this lineup. We don't see them being sellers at all, right? I think the division is too good. I think they're going to be in it. But I think they're better than like four teams in the West, and the Central is going to beat each other up so much that the second and third team in the east may, you know, they're going to be chasing the wild card come trade deadlines. I'm in on the Gerardi effect.

The lineup plays every day. Girardi takes losers and makes them into not winners but contenders. Yeah. Like he took to 2013 Yankees, which was the worst roster ever, 190 games. I think this team will be around and should be around. Yeah, to see them as sellers, it's almost impossible to see that with what Gerardy can do and the depth there is in this lineup. Yeah, I think there's no way.

What I will say is, I mean, in the NL East, one of these teams has to drop out. Yeah. Like, it's not going to be a four-team race to the finals. And when I look at this pitching, like in my head, I see one injury away from them not being able to compete with the Braves, with the Nationals, and with the Mets. Damn. Yet at the same time, if the pitching does enough, this lineup can be special enough that the Phillies. will be in it till the end, if not a wildcar team. Okay.

They won 81 games last year? Right. The over under is set at 85 and a half this year. 85 and a half for the fight and fills, huh? I'm taking the under. Wait, that was a gut call. Oh, gut call? I got to think about it now.

Now he's thinking. I give the audience my gut call. Yeah. And then I give my think about it call. The gut call and the think about it call. This is a tough one. Yeah. I mean, Mets Nationals Braves are good.

They're good. I'm low on my Nats. I think I'm high on the Mets. Just scary. I'm staying with the under. I don't think they're going to be bad, but, uh, dude, that's kind of tough. Like his- Gerardi, your guy.

I just said he took a shitty team in 190 games. Yeah. I think I'm going to go under. I've kind of been negative vibes this whole podcast. I love the lineup. The pitching worries me. And in that division, it's, really good and they all have pitching.

So. Your injury line, a pitcher will get injured. I mean, if they lose Nola or Wheeler, who again, we don't even know if he's a dude or a guy. Oh, my God. If they lose one of those two for an extended period of time, they have one starting pitcher they can lean on. And that's tough. Being rude to Eflin.

I mean, a little bit. I think he's fighting for a forward five. Can't lean on Eflin. So I'm going under, you're going under. Under. Damn, tough break for the Phillies. Yeah, I thought we were going to be high on that. Because they've kind of been Yankees East, like you said, Gerardi.

I thought we were going to come in this episode be high on. I love Dedi. I'm high on the lineup. But yeah, I don't know, man. That pitching did nothing for me. Brutal. Fun fact, Andrew McCutcheon proposed to his long-time girlfriend, Maria Hans-Lobin on December 11th,

2013 episode of the Ellen DeGeneres show. Wow. Proposed on Live TV. It was probably tape delayed, but Probably taped delayed. Cool. See you guys later. Thanks for hanging out.

Good luck, Phillies. I feel like we just opened a can of worms. You're being a jerk. I think Phillies a fan base that's been kind of neutral with us, and now we might be out. I like him. I like him to be in wild card contention. But under.

But in wild card contention, division's going to beat itself up. See you later.