Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 109 | St. Louis Cardinals | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: March 11, 2020

The NL Central champs are back and looking for more this year. Are the Cardinals still the team to beat in this division? Let's break it down and talk it over. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome back to talking baseball. It is another daily episode, mini episode, one a day, every day until opening day. And on today's episode, we are talking about the St. Louis Cardinals. Episode a day every day until opening day. We're in the middle of it. You killed that, by the way. Thank you. Nice.

Thanks, Jake. No problem. I wanted to take a moment to reflect and let the audience know that we thank them and that they should be. understanding what we're doing is insane. A little bit. So much content. A little bit. Like I'm looking at Randhal Revello on the Cardinals bench.

I'm going to be honest. I don't know who that is. Oh, I just meant the amount of content we've been putting out. Yeah. It's crazy. It ties into it. Yeah. Especially for people that listen to talking baseball and talking Yanks and understand that we're

doing two episodes a day every day into opening day. That's how it goes. That's how it goes. But anyway, we're talking about the Cardinals today. And right off the bat. Right off the rip. Right off the rick. I got to let everyone know.

When we, oh, dropped something. When we did, this is our last NL Central team. All right, we did the pirates. They were way early on. We did the. Then everyone else is jumbled up. Yes, but the audience voted. Right.

And I think that the Cubs got really hammered in the voting. I think recency bias of the Cubs missing the playoffs last year and not doing anything in the post in the off season, has everyone down on them. I don't think the Red should have been above the Cubs, and I don't think the Cardinals should have been above the Cubs. So I think the fans got this order wrong. So Cubs are your number one team in the NL Central?

In like a very close jump. Okay, interesting. But I think the Cardinals are good, but I don't have them as the number one. I have the Cubs still. Like just talent on the roster. I think the Cubs are further them. And this is a tough start

for any St. Louis Cardinal fan that's listening that hasn't listened to the show before. See, I think this is, I might end up looking like the good guy here. Maybe that's why I threw the glasses. Maybe good guy Jake wears the glasses. Wow. Bad guy Jake has to look you in the eye when he says it. I like these Cardinals, and maybe it's a little Jack Flaherty bias. Oh, I love him.

Because he's a friend and he's also incredible. But I like this contrast of the Cardinals after the Phillies, because for some reason, I look at this team and I love Flaherty up top, and although the lineup doesn't blow you away, there's also not massive holes. I feel like everyone gives you an at bat in that lineup. And we've got, I feel like we've run into one of our first bullpins I like. We kind of saw them do good things against the Braves.

Gallegos took the step forward. And I don't know, Carlos Martinez goes back to starting. Dakota Hudson's a good young picture. Adam Wainwright in your four hole. he's going to give you games. Yep. And then your guy, Kwang Hung Kim. It looks like they've got him slated as the fifth starter right now.

Did you get the scouting report on him? Because I saw you looking. I'm looking at it right now. I'm trying to read it up because it said like he's some, I said I read one place relief. But another place saying starter, he made 30 starts last year in the KBO. So he's not, not Japan.

It's Korean. And didn't Michaelis also pitch? in the KBO? He came over from Japan. From Japan? Yeah. So a different league then, never mind. And he's currently not listed because they have him hurt, but he's another guy that

could throw. Well, he'll be back. I just thought maybe they could share an experience, but I'm wrong. Anyway, he's 30 years old, started 30 games last year in the KBO, which is an offensive league, right? I'm not as well-versed in the KBO as I'd like to be. I believe it's an offensive league, and they're terrible at defense and pitching. Okay.

He had a 251 ERA. Don't. Don't. Don't. Anyone that knows about the KBO and the offense, correct me. Anyone that doesn't know, don't believe what I just said, because I have to say that with zero authority. I don't know if it's an offensive league.

Perfect. Here's what I like about the St. Louis Cardinals. And you heard me stumble onto it with the pitching staff, and it's where I differed with the Phillies and why I didn't believe in them, was that, man, almost every guy who's going to start a game for them is going to give them a chance, if not a great chance. I mean, Flaherty, he's a monster. He's got to be one of the leaders for the NL Cy Young this year.

Miles Mickelis, we'll see when he comes back. But he's just the guy he's going to twirl you an ERA around four and keep you in there. Dakota Hudson, really nice year in his age 24 season, 335 ERA. Wainwright, I thought his numbers were going to be worse than this. He had a 419 ERA last year. 31 starts. And we'll see what Kim can turn into, but every starting pitcher is going to give them a game.

They have guys that are coming in on the bullpen that are solid. Tyler Webb, Brebia, Gallegos. We'll see if Andrew Miller can get healthy. Gantt. I mean, every person that comes in, Genesis Cabrera, my God, if that dude can figure out, he's a monster. He's a monster. This team has pitching.

They're pitching. So, ERA plus, right? Sure. 100's average above that's better. Yeah. So last season. Last season. Guess how many pitchers they had,

reliever or starter, with an ERA plus. plus over 100. 115. Huh? Guess how many? 150 pitchers. Wrong. That's my guess.

Totally. It was a guess. It's bad guess. Bad guess. Yeah. Guess again. 13. No.

That would be crazy. That'd be crazy. That's why I guessed it. That's an even more insane guess. That's not more insane. Because there's some relative of you actually thought 13. Take it back. I'd take it back, but it's eight.

It's good. That's impressive. That's impressive. Galegos, Florida, Hudson. John Bredebia Grant Webb Michaelis Wayno Andrew Miller

He didn't have it But he's an interesting story Anyway before we go on From the Korean pitcher Or he's from He's from the Korean League I'm not sure if he's Korean But Quang-Hion Kim

Here's a really good Officially your guy You'll He'll be your guy in a second 30 years old comes over Do you have a hype video? No no I have a quote from an article Okay

So this article KSDK dot come. Good sight. Check it out. The Cardinals have not said whether the lefty will begin the season as a starter or in the bullpen. Yep.

But with the Cardinals off on Friday, Kim is looking forward to getting a haircut and then going on a boat. I hope I can catch a big fish, Kim said. If I do, I will take a picture and show you. Yeah. Bingo. That's the way to my heart. The best way to get from point A to point A straight line.

straight line. And that's what he did there. We don't need the fluff. No. I'm hoping to catch a big fish so I can take a picture of it after my haircut. Yes. Yeah. If anyone catches a big fish, take a picture and show us.

Yeah. Like don't not. I'm not going to keep a secret. And that's obvious. So they don't know what he's going to do. And yeah, I think Jordan Hicks might come back midseason for them. That dude throws fast. He got T.J.

He's going to put up 104 on the gun. Yeah, man, so that's why I like this team. Everybody can pitch. The pitching's good. And the lineup, yes, you'd love to see another impact bat or two even. But, like, everyone can field and everyone can give you an bet. There's no, the one dead spot is Harrison Bader, who might be the best defensive center fielder in baseball.

And they've got other guys that they might rotate in the outfield if he can't hit enough for his defense to be valuable. So, all right, the, I'm in on the cards. All right. a lot of guy dude stuff. Guy dudes stuff. We're doing it for pitchers. Yeah.

For hitters. Yeah. How many dudes do you see here? Goldschmidt. They have, they currently have one dude. But a lot of guys. With the potential for two. No.

They have potential for two dudes if Matt Carpenter can bounce back. Colton Wong and Tommy Edmund can be really nice ballplayers. Yaddy's going to do his thing. He's a guy. Offensively, Yaddy's a guy. Overall, he's a guy. a dude, but offensively is a guy. Yeah. And, you know, maybe there's an argument to be made for Paul DeYoung, a guy who's got crazy power for a shortstop. But, you're right. There's no argument

there. But at the same- Like they don't have a one-two punch that a lot of teams do. No. And Paul Goldschmidt, as we talked about, I had his worst year as a major leaguer last year. I think his OPS Plus was, what, 113, something like that. And even including his rookie season. So that was the first year of the big contract they gave out. So if you're a Cardinals fan, you're telling yourself, oh, it's his first year, he's a Justin, he's figuring out St. Louis. If you're anybody else, you're saying, that's got to be a little scary. If he takes another step down, you've got him on the books for a couple years. And, you know, like we just said, he's their only dude currently. But at the same time, I mean, you know, I feel like during the postseason,

I was a little tough on Tommy Edmund. All of us in this room looked at DeCard. Fowler and we're like he's still kind of doing it. I mean, he got a base at a decent clip. No one on here is chopped liver. No. What a bad term. But you're right. It's correct.

I have something for you. Give me something. Jack Flaherty, friend of the program. Yeah. First interview that wasn't Yankees related. His baseball savant numbers are amazing. No way. He's really good.

His curve spin actually isn't good. But can we watch a random video of Jack Flores? Random, random. Random video of Jack Flaherty, and it is Jack Flaherty ball to Alex Gordon. O2 pitch, so it seems very much like a setup pitch. Yeah, you're just changing the eye line there. Held the runner for a while there, too. That was nice.

Nice random video. Thank you, baseball savant, sponsor of the show. And, you know, Jim, I might have a sleeper for you. Okay. Know who could end up being a guy by the end of the season? Give it to me. Tyler O'Neill. I like his name.

Okay, that's good. I like his name. Young outfielder, 24. He's a sleeper in the fantasy realm, Jim. Baseball, not like... Oh, Canadian. That's tough. Not a...

I'm just joking. I'm just joking. I wanted my O'Neill to be... I wanted him to be Irish-American. Damn, man. From the Bronx. That's brutal. Or no.

Specific. Not the Bronx. I wanted to be just like my dad. Very specific. He's got some good minor league power numbers. He's looking to... for a spot to break through. Now that Jose Martinez is gone.

Marcelo Zuna is gone. He's already popped two homers in spring so far. So that's pretty big. He's got a couple years in the minor leagues where he hit for serious power. Let's see if I can get to them quick enough. I'm here already. 24 home runs in 2016. How many games?

130. There is one year that it was weird. 31 home runs in 130 games. And 2018, he had 26 home runs in 64 games. Do the math on that, Jim. Can't. Home run every other game, basically. Basically.

Basically. With a little gaps, people. Get over. So he's got five home runs in the MLB already last year. That's, yeah, and he's got a couple of the year before. He hasn't found the playing time. He's a guy that they definitely are hoping by the end of the season. They're saying he's a big part of that lineup.

But yeah, I mean, everyone could- He was a Seattle prospect. Did Colton Wong end up winning the gold glove? Yes, I think he did. And he's a guy that gets on base. He does his thing. I don't like his middle name. Tyler Allen-Oneill.

Tyler Allen-O-Neill? It's all too short. You got to throw a longer name in there. Like Tyler Emmanuel O'Neill. That'd be better. Okay. I mean, Paul DeYoung hit 30 homers from the shortstop position last year. Colton Wong won the gold glove and he gets on base at a 361 clip.

Like this lineup does stuff. Matt Carpenter is a big question. It's, did he decline and he's old, or did he have a bad season and he's going to bounce back? Because that does change this team a lot. Okay. So I feel justified when I'm looking at this Fangraph site. The Cubs have a 37% chance to win the division according to whatever nerds made this. Sure.

And the Cardinals only have a 17. Sure. So I'm not, I wasn't too harsh. No, and I think, you know, team identities is something that does come in, to play here that again, like, analytics and people don't pick up on. But, like, when we did the Brewers, like, the Brewers are going to have a chance, but, you know, analytically, whatever percentage are going on at Fangraphs, they can't measure what the Brewers normally do.

I think the Cardinals kind of deserve to be treated that way. The Cardinals are a really well-run baseball franchise. And they went nut job somewhat coinciding with Jack Flaherty going nuts, but they were 58 and 55 and then they got to 90 and 67 which quick math carry the one Okay tapped out

Yeah no but it was it was like 38 and 13 stretch Like once they figured it out Because remember we were counting them out last year And then they ended up going off and winning And then they beat the Braves Which I was so high on last year And on the cards All right Jake

I just found a section of this website we've been using for all these TVPs that I haven't looked at once and I love it. Ooh, wow, new section alert. The breakdown of the 40-man roster. How come you haven't talked about this? Where are you looking? Let me see. It's right in the middle right here.

It's like top middle. Oh, yeah, I kind of didn't want you to find that. It's awesome. That's a lot of Jimmy information there that I don't think is great for the TPP, but it's stuff you love. Oh, I like this. 19 homegrown guys. Yeah. Eight free agent, nine trade.

Yeah. That's cool. Yeah. You want to see that. I think baseball needs to see at least 20 homegrown guys per team. Wow. I want to go through all of them. I mean, that's on the 40, man.

That's on the 40 men. 40 men, yeah. 26 guys from the USA. So USA heavy team here. Yeah. Only five guys from the DR. That seems light for these days in baseball. Yeah, and see, this is why I was worried you were going to find this because now you're

going to go through all the teams and you're going to get some John Boy metrics going on this, which I don't think it's fully needed for the TPP. I'll do it. I'll do it. I won't do it on the TV. It's fun information. I'm going to look at this more often now. It's fun information.

Anyway, I wanted to see their top prospects. They have a lot. They have a pretty good farm, right? Let's see. Nolan Gorman. God, you love him. He's only in A. He's in high A right now, and he's expected to come up next season.

Well, and then they traded for Matthew Liberator, Liberatore. He went viral a couple weeks ago. He had a knee-buckling curveball, if you remember that. but he was the guy traded for Jose Martinez. His nickname is going to be Liberace, right? I don't think so. Who's Liberation? I think Liberator is a pretty...

The Liberator? I think that's a nickname in and of itself. But he's still a few years off. What if Liberace's a painter? Is he? I think he's a musical artist. He has a pianist. Okay, Jim.

Tickling the Ivories. So, like, Libertory, tickling the black. He's listening. Yeah. I got it. So, yeah, Dylan Carlson looks like he's their only. dude big time prospect expected to come up this year. No, they got some others.

They got Genesis Carrera, who you like. Right, he's already been up, Ben had snacks. Same with Lane Thomas and Andrew. Carlson's an outfielder. He's young. So some helps on the way. Lane Thomas, he got some run last year and he did pretty well. So, yeah, I think Carpenter is the guy you circle.

It seems like they have outfield depth and they're going to figure it out. Can Harrison Bader hit enough to play out there? Right now they've got Tuami Edmund out there. Does he slip into the infielder if Carpenter's struggling? That seems like a little bit of a solution right there where that could get Tyler O'Neill in the lineup. But yeah, I think as long as Flaherty stays healthy, which there's no reason to believe he won't, I think.

They're a pitching team. Like their lineup isn't bad, but it's not amazing. They only had three guys with an 800 OPS last year. The Reds might have the most talent and be the most full. fun, but like we said about them, they have to prove it. If the Reds prove it, I'll be in on the Reds to win the Central. That sounds so dumb. If the Reds show me they're good, I'll be in on the Reds to win the Central.

I need to see it from the Reds to believe it. If they show it, I'll believe in the Reds. But until them, I think it's St. Louis's division. Oh, I got the Cubs still. Clubbies. Cubs had talent, man. The Cubs lineup is full of dudes. Right.

But I think the pitch. The pitching's been their problem. I know, but the pitching has the ability there. And they lost Hamels. I know, Jake. I know. It's going to be a brutal division. They're all going to beat each other up.

This lineup, it's a lot of good players. Like, it's a lot of, like, if they play their role and do what they're going to do, they can win you ball games. I think they're going to have to do a lot of, like, little things. But Goldie also, we talked about this earlier. He had his worst season of his career last year, which it's not a bad season. It's a nice season. But it's the worst season of his career.

If I'm a Cardinals fan, you asked the question before he went live on the show. Are you excited or scared about that? Because he just turned 30. I'm excited. I think he's not going to have even worse. Like I think he's going to go higher and have like, he might even like have a big career. Big season. Big season.

Yeah. Big season. Yeah, I don't know. I just think when talking about the Cardinals' lineup comes second to me, They had a top five starting pitching staff ERA. They were top six bullpen-wise, which, I mean, that gets bullpins and ERAs can get a little sloppy. They were number one in hits allowed per nine innings in their bullpen, second in home runs allowed. This team can pitch.

This team can field. They just need a little bit on the offensive end, and they have the guys for that. It's not like it's a – I don't think this is a bad lineup. If this team has timely hitting, they're awesome. They're really good. Really good. I think even with these guys' average seasons, I think this is a 90-win ball club.

Ooh, 90 in that division? Yeah, that's what they won 91 last year. I know, but things fell apart for some teams. I mean, the Brewers turned it on. You're just a big Cubs guy. I don't think the Cardinals are bad. Now I'm excited to listen to the Cubs PPP because I'm TPP, because I'm hoping you hit the under on it.

I did because I'm hitting the Yeah, yeah, because, well, the Cubs Under was like higher than this one. Oh, no. But I believe I hit the under because I said they're all going to beat the shit of each other. Like I said, I didn't see a single 93. It's a firefight. I didn't think, I didn't see a single 93 plus win team in this division. There's four teams that are just going to be brutal.

This is what I believe I said in the Cubs TPP, but I really don't remember what I say in these after a second after we'd Yeah. It's tough. So I have no idea. It's tough. And I'm looking for a tab on my computer right now that I definitely... I was going to say. Definitely.

He sounded like you were tap searching a little bit. What are you looking for? I'm trying to find Jordan Hicks expected return. Okay. Because if he's like a mid-season acquisition. Right. That's amazing. Yeah.

To add him to the bullpen. I think he had his Tommy John surgery on 62619. So that would have him on track for middle end part of this season, right? Yeah, it looks like, well, What's the seventh month, July? Ooh, yes. Yeah, it looks like they have them back in middle of July. I mean, and then go slow with them.

And just have them healthy for... Build them up for the playoffs. I mean, I wouldn't even bring them back for July. Tommy John. August and September. You hope Carpenter and Goldschmidt bounce back. There's a potential that you trade for another lineup back because that would make this team a lot more.

I think what this team falls into for me is great regular season team. they would need a bat. They would need someone to step up and trade for a bat for me to take them serious in the postseason, which the Nationals basically did to them in the postseason. Yeah. Big trade for a bat. Who's out there?

I think there will be guys out there, but I think you need a guy to step up and you need to get another guy. So they get like the Castiano's trade for them? Yeah, something like that. Yeah. That'd be big. Anyway, the over under for them,

Jake. Yeah. Is 87 and a half. So I'm taking the under. I'll be taking the over. I think the whole division is going to be between 85 and 90. The three top teams that have whatever they do. So taking the under.

I don't know how that lines up with what I did in the past. So Reds, Cubs, Cards. Brewers. And Brewers. Just a fucking... You've got them all between 85 and 90. Three of them. And one is going to fall out.

Who's falling out? I don't know. Wait and see. That's tough. That's why you got to watch the games, baby. That's a tough. That's a space to meet the ball. Anything else we need to say?

I like this card steam. Hey, who's that guy that you said? Genesis Cabrera? Oh, yeah. I need to watch a random video game. He's a monster, yeah. Why? Tell me more about him.

He's a giant lefty. If he can throw strikes, he's like unhittable, like Josh Hader-esque. He's 6-2-190. Yeah. Well, he's limbs, bro. Oh, he's lanky? Oh, yeah. You getting the random vid?

Yeah. I'm going to random vid his ass. We're going to random vid his ass. If anyone doesn't know, if you go to baseball savant and you just look at a player, they offer to show you a random video. And they're like incredibly random. They're not random highlights. They're the most random.

Yeah, they're not highlights. Like maybe they can be, but we haven't seen one yet. Okay. Here's show random video of Genesis Cabrera. He's only 23 years old. You're going to like them. a ball to McNeil Yeah

Didn't like him Ask for the chick swing Didn't have a chin Didn't whipy I'd do one more for him I'm gonna do one more He's doing another I'm doing another

I didn't satisfy my Fow Ooh I saw the whip there He kind of coils Whippy Kind of coils Okay Genesis Whippy

Look at this right here Yeah you see that He brings the ball behind Whippy Look at that Look where the ball is there I'm telling you, bro. All right.

If you get locked up, don't mention my name. Oh, do, do, do it. All right. Go cards. Go cards. See you guys later. Thanks for listening. And everything.

Thanks for everything. Ninth. Eight teams left, people. Thank you so much for everything. Thank you. Genesis Cabrera. Miles Mickelis, Ada Lizard in the bullpen, 2011. All right.

Thank you.