Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 118 | Houston Astros | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: March 20, 2020

Astros fans... look away. Jomboy and Jake are previewing your team's 2020 season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome back to talking baseball. It's a podcast in which we talk baseball. This is a mini episode. We're calling it the team profile and projection. You already know the drill. One episode today, every day until opening day. Asterisks, bottom of the page. Asterisks, March 26, because they changed opening day on us.

Really ruined everything we were trying to do here. God damn virus. Speaking of viruses, this episode is about the Houston Astros. You guys remember them? Wow. It's like, wow. Wow. Cyrus of the Virus, one of the scarier.

That's a good movie. One of the scary movie characters? John Malkovich in any movie is the scariest movie character. Yes. He's awesome. Go watch Con Air tonight, people. Treat yourself. Trade yourself.

I was agreeing with you. They should treat themselves to Conair. Well, Conn Air gets a million more views. one day, and it's after these guys did an Astros podcast. Yeah. Because they're criminals, cons. We found the next Jerry Springer. His name's Jake Storelli.

That's what they're calling every flight. Jerry Springer, Jake Storelli, J.S. Yeah? Just shitting? Just shitting. The Jake Storelli life. Anyway, we're doing the Houston Astros today. I'm be honest with you up front.

I don't want to do this episode. Damn. All I want to do is make terribly layup jokes the entire time. That's what I do. But everything sucks. Ooh, here we go. And it's like, okay, great. Let's talk about the Astros and how Alex Braggman had a 1.015 OPS last year and it was really good in 2017.

Yeah. And then let's say, well, how much, how much did he benefit from all the cheating? From the cheating part. Everything's a cloud. He got road numbers, too. Why don't you look at Alex Brady? I'm going to the road. I'll do it again.

Oh, no. Maybe later. That's really good. And I think that's, a, we're going to find. out a lot about the Houston Astros this year. Maybe if we play the games. Apparently they're going through a lot of turmoil. I'll start with my emotional thing that I've dropped in a lot of online arguments for the past year or so, not year, six months, however long it's been. Nobody knows at this point.

The part that sucks for me about the Houston Astros, it's not me being a but-hurt Yankees fan. It's me being a person who loves baseball, and I loved the dudes on this team six months ago. Springer, Yukon, he's a stud. Al-Tube, short. Has my body type. Height. Has your height. Why'd you adjust it?

I mean, he has our height. Right. He's in shape. It's our body type. Yeah, he's in shape. If I lost 20 pounds. And gain some muscle. I don't know.

Altuva's not that big. But he's like muscle. A lot of buzz around him. Michael Brantley. You know, I could go either way on. His nickname's Dr. Smooth, so I'm leaning up on him right now. Don't, come on. Okay.

You're not blocking the camera with the pipe, are you? Bregman, I mean, we like him a lot. And it's... No, no, no, no, no, no. Yeah, I mean, we like him. Like when he was a heel, I said, I don't like Breggman, but I like that he... I'm still six months ago. I like that he existed.

I still six months ago. He was Harper. Al Harper Now Yes But now Bregman's entire existence Is shattered

Yeah And I don't know if anyone knows that If he knows that I think he does know that To be honest Yeah I've heard rumblings Um

But his entire being How cocky he was How arrogant he was How much of a heel he was That was swag And it was cool And it was fun And I mean

It is Now you look back on it And it is Insecurity And it is projecting and it is the complete opposite of what we thought it was. Yeah. I think he comes out looking the worst from this whole thing.

Yeah, him, I mean, Verlander, just because he was in front of the mic a lot. But yeah, I mean, and this is going to be a big year for a lot of these Houston guys, and it's kind, well, I was going to say it's unfair to them. As you know, I've mentioned this a couple times now. Baseball's a brutal start And a couple of these guys Are going to get off to terrible starts Yeah

And people are going to scream from the rafters That yeah Baseball is not as easy anymore Blah Blah Blah I like to think each stadium Has one rafter fan One rafter fan A guy sneaks in

And he's watching from From the actual rafters Like there's some birds nest around him And he's just kind of like Watching from up there with binoculars Give us a picture of you watching the game From the Rafter Oh don't out yourself

Yeah Do not out yourself. But yeah, I mean, Springer's in a contract year. We're going to see what he's got. Al Tuve, you know I've been ahead of this take. I mean, I think he's crossed the peak of his career. Damn. I mean, he's turning 30 this year.

He's a little guy. Look at Padroia. Like, I just think, you know, they're going to do some Jose Altuva numbers that are like, Altuvae, pre-caught cheating? And El Tuvei post got cheating, and those numbers are going to look bad. Five years in a row, all-star MVP votes and Silver Slugger for Altupe. Yeah. Five years in a row.

Yeah. I mean, it's a good prime. One, two, two, three. He didn't, last year he broke it. Correa, people are pretty low on Correa. It'll be interesting to see if he can bounce back. Oh, also a huge shot to his personnel. Well, actually, he was never winning any personality contests anyway.

He's a bit of a weird doll. So I don't know, but I will say this. and, you know, getting into the baseball a little bit, you guys saw me before we started recording. I mean, I kind of haven't been looking at Houston's actual roster a lot this offseason. I've just been saying it's going to be tough for them to play a buck 62, which, A, they may not have to anymore. But B, just with fans killing them,

and whatever two guys in that top seven of their lineup get off to a brutal start are going to get crushed by the media, and I think there will be effects felt by this, but this is a really good baseball team. And, you know, as much as I want to be hot takey and say, like, I've been joking that George Springer should be available at the trade deadline because it's his contract year. Good way to replace those lost draft picks.

I mean, there would have to be a perfect shit storm for that to happen. And it's not going to happen because this team is really good. Let's talk about who they lost. But they lose. They lost Hector Randon. Oh, God. Robinson, Chorinos, Wade Miley. He's just being Miley.

Will Harris. He was big for them. Colin McHugh became a free agent. He was good for them on Twitter. They traded away Jake Mariznick. Yeah, he was bad for them except for one season at home. And the big loss is Garrett Cole. Yes.

That's a big loss. One of the best pitchers and all the baseball. It's a big loss. Garic Cole was special for them. runner up in the Cy Young could have won the Cy Young lost it to his teammate, Justin Verlander. Who's hurt, but might be better by the time the virus stops killing everyone. Yeah, he may be back. So, yeah, I don't know.

I mean, they still have two special guys at the top of that rotation. Lance McCullors comes back after his T.J. year will be interesting to see what he's got in the tank. And then they've got some young guys. I mean, Jose or Kiti, we saw him break. out a little bit towards the playoffs last year. Josh James has all the armed talent you can ask for the world. He was part of that sleep apnea trend of guys for. I need that.

There was like six months there where all these sleep apnea guys were like, yeah, we sleep now and we're good at baseball. I think it was him, like Dom Smith, somebody else. Jordan Alvarez probably comes up more into the fold. Jordan, I mean, he's going to be an interesting one. And he'll be if he has a tough 2020, he'll be someone people point at and say they were cheating in 2019 because he set like rookie record type shit.

They also got Jared Hughes, huge move. Jared Hughes. It could be Hughes for them. I don't know. The question, the lineup's still going to be able to do its thing. Right now they don't have Kyle Tucker in the lineup. He's a former first round pick, top five pick. If he can kind of overtake Reddick and right field, I think he's a guy that's really

talented and can be a difference maker. It sucks that both those guys are lefty hitters. Yeah, you'd like the platoon there a little bit. But, I mean, Reddick does what he does. He had some character of that team. He's going to play good defense. What Kyle Tucker can do if he's given the opportunity, I think, has more potential. I mean, what Fangraphs has him projected to hit 20 homers.

So when Kyle Tucker gets in there, he should be able to do his thing. The lineup can be eight deep on a given day. Redick is better versus lefties as well. Last year, he had a better OPS against lefties. So my concerns when this team, if there is an Achilles heel, is the fact they lost Garrett Cole, who had one of the more special pitching seasons ever. And now the two dudes at the top of their rotation, Verlander and Grinky, Verlander A, fell off towards the playoffs, which I won't expect in the regular season,

but I think you can point to wear and tear a little bit. He was not the same Justin Verlander. And Zach Grinky, I mean, he's 36 years old, so he's still tricket. him. And it's kind of awesome to watch. And he had that heroic World Series game. Yeah, his last game is pretty good. That gets overlooked. But I think it's fair to have questions about two guys who are 36 and older at the top of the rotation. And then, I mean, the next three guys are people that not a ton of people are familiar with. Name him. Jose Arkiti. Arquidi. Fun name. Young. He's a legit prospect. But again, I mean, he's still got to put a year together.

Lance McCuller's coming off Tommy John. I mean, does he have full leash and what does he look like? And then Josh James, he was my sleep apnea guy. I think there's a musical artist named Joshua James. Joshua James. Very slow music. So, yeah, and I mean, I'm trying to see. They do have their top prospect, Garrett Whitley at some point.

Should get the call this year. Forest Whitley. Oh, my God. Sorry, Garrett Whitley. Forest Whitley. Forest Whitley. Forest Whitley. guys in double A.

I used to date a Garrett Whitley. Yeah, but he's, I mean, big time prospect, top 15 in baseball. They have him here. Do not be surprised if he's in the rotation by the end of the year. But again, I mean, what, you know, does he have a rookie year? Is that a breakout rookie or is that a scary rookie? We'll see you next year. Abraham Toro.

He helped Verlander complete the no-hitter last year. He had 25 games played with some. Bad numbers. Bad numbers. Whatever. So, yeah, for me, the questions about this team are going to be the pitching staff. And again, at the same time, could Verlander Grinky be dominant? And then you just need a couple of those guys to be okay and you have a good rotation?

Absolutely. This is a really good team. This is a top three team in baseball coming into the season. The turmoil and Colby and, you know, gone, Verlander being injury, whatever, and just the turmoil. Like, they already have quotes saying it sucks. There's videos every time Altuve is on deck, there's videos of people screaming and Altuvee listening for spring training.

This is spring training. Yeah. This is like the friendliest environment for baseball. Literally. Everyone's having a good time. When you go on the road and you go to Oakland and you go, like Seattle, maybe they won't be mean, you go to. Seattle's got the loudest crowds there is, man.

Yeah, the football stadium when they say everyone yell, one, two, three, yell. And then they yell and then they're like, hey, did you hear a lot of we where we broke the record? We did it. Let's get out of here. We did one, two, three, yell. Everyone yelled, broke the record. It's kind of chilly outside. Let's go home.

We beat all the other stadiums because none of the other stadiums do that. Yeah. Because it's pathetic. Anyway, this isn't, Jake, this isn't a rip on Seattle Seahawks episode. I don't think I was. Seattle Seahawks fans episode. Yeah, but you bullied me into that. I wouldn't say I bullied you either.

I laid a little bait out. Yeah, you baited me into it. I put a little bait out there. Anyway, the turmoil is going to be real. And that's going to be for the lineup. Oh, if we have any real Houston fans that are listening to this still? Hi. Hi, thank you.

And I've been saying this. I don't know where I said this. I'm going to say on Bowers podcast. I do feel genuinely bad for the Houston fan that has had to take this in stride and kind of live with this. it. And the whirlwind that those fans have gone through in a decade, Jake, they're in the NL. And then they were kind of this rebuild laughing stock, right? The Astros, whatever you want to call them. And then their team is the smartest team in baseball. And they are America's

darling. We liked them. Even though they were beating the Yankees, we liked them. And they were doing things different. And they were. smart and Harvey hits and they win the world series for Houston and it's just like the best story. And then they have all of that ripped away from them. And now they are the most hated team in baseball. So for the genuine Houston diehard fans that are accepting that, you know, it's real. They cheated. Yeah.

I do feel genuinely bad for those people. Like I'm thinking of, you know, like my mom type fan. That sucks. Okay. That was nice. I mean, the people that are being preposterous and are stuck in denial and being like sending me death threats and rude to me. Right. I don't have any sympathy for those people.

Right. Not a ton of sympathy. Not a ton of sympathy. Yeah. I mean, it's going to be must watch TV. The team that last year was first and average, first and on. base first and OPS to see what they do on the on the offensive side of the baseball this year, third in home runs.

It's going to be interesting to watch. Again, they should still be an elite team. You wonder if they do find themselves in a losing streak, if the booze get louder and things get crazy around them, what that looks like. You wonder if they can cold shoulder it as long as they can. They come in and they run it back. That'll be interesting to find out. They were third in ERA for starting pitchers.

Again, losing Garrett Cole. It'll be interesting to see if there's a Garrett Cole ripple effect. Because what Garrett Cole can do is he can reset your bullpen. He could give you an amazing start. Because, I mean, the Houston Astros were second in ERA, bullpen ERA last year. And they have some guys. But the bullpen, and maybe it's in comparison to the rest of their team, but their bullpen didn't almost feel like a strength.

Like Ozuna, Ozone is good. He had a really good regular season, good playoffs. Will Harris had a nice year, but, well, Howie Kendrick, hello. But he's still not a guy that, like, scares you. It's not like, oh, Will Harris is coming in out of the bullpen. So I'm going to be interested to see if there's a Garrett Cole ripple effect. Because, man, it goes overlooked how much not only a starting pitcher going out and giving you eight strong innings on a day to win you a game.

yes, that's a great effect, but it also resets your whole bullpen, which is huge in Major League Baseball nowadays. So I'll be interested to see how much of an effect that has. No use to scare him out of their bullpen, but then like does anymore, is Da Vinsky? Yeah, Davinsky, and that's the thing. I mean, does he find it again, and can he be a scary guy out of their bullpen? But he kind of had a tough year. Joe Smith comes back.

We like him. He's had a really nice Major League career and stepped up in the playoff. Presley, I mean, he's. struggled come playoff time. He had the credible regular season. So, I mean, right now, the guys after Osuna, they have it listed Presley, Brian Abraeu, good young pitcher, Joe Smith, DeVansky, Brad Peacock, Framber Valdez. I mean, in that Presley, DeVesky, Smith, Abraeu range, who's going to step up and lock the eighth inning? And then who else is going to have a good year? Who's going to have a

year? But that bullpen, I think that bullpen might feel the Garrett Cole effect more than the starting rotation. Wow, there's a fucking take. Hell yeah. Hell yeah. Good job, Jake. Jesus walks with them. Nope. Maybe. I don't know. I'm just watching... I'm watching Gifts of DaVinsky's change yet. It's brutal. I like that. It's awesome. Give us a one vid. Is he going to be our one vid guy?

Random vid? Random vid? No, choose another player. Okay. Random vid. You want a pitcher or hitter? Hitter. Give me Yulee Gureel Yule Yule Yule He's a guy that deserves to be mentioned

Because he might have had the second best Hitting season on this team last year Yeah Good job mentioning him Show random video of Yule Here we go And the random video of Yulee is Carlos Carrasco foul

To Yule Cookie I didn't hear what you said Cookie inside fastball Oh, almost like a pop-up foul. Damn. Fought it off. Could have been caught in Oakland, maybe.

Yuley had a really special year for them last year. He's the only guy in their lineup where I think age might be a consigne. Touching me. Okay. But yeah, man, this lineup's going to put it together. Where are we on Jordan Alvarez? Do we think he's, like, next? I don't know enough about him.

Okay. I mean, he went nuts last year. I know. And I guess you can point to some juice ball or you can point to cheating or you can point to whatever you want. Yeah, there's a lot of unknown factors there. I'm going to need to see that dude again. And I'd say that about any rookie if we're being fair. Yeah, that's true.

That's true. All right. Let's do the over under. Okay. Last year, the Houston Astros won 170 games minus. Minus 63. Okay. What do you think you would put the over under as?

Jordan was nuts. The Houston Astros over under should be like 98. It's 94 and a half. Okay. A little turmoil bowl? A turmoil ball going on? Tomabob. Darmourable.

Yeah, what do you think? It's tough. That's a low over under. If they go under, That's kind of yikes mode. A little bit. I still have them in the 95 to 100. They should be, dude.

They should be. Like if they go under that, that kind of proves the cheating is unreal. Yes and no. They lost Garrett Cole. And here's my thing with the old guys on top of their rotation. If Verlander or Grinky misses two months. Yeah. Get hurt and miss work.

If you get hurt and miss work, it won't hurt. It won't hurt. To miss work. If one of those guys gets hurt for two months, their rotation, the number two guy in their rotation turns into either Jose or Kiti, Lance McCullors, or Josh James. Yeah, that's not good. You know, and like, could those guys be good?

Yes. Yeah, Brent Strom's a really good pitching coach. But, yeah. But, again, it's not the, it's not the Astros rotation we pictured in the past. The safe bed is still the over. I know you and I are getting a mind fuck right now because, you know, we'll see what happens with Corona and it's doubtful they play a buck 62. But if they play 162 games, 94, I mean, I'm taking the over on that.

They won 107 last year. Yeah. Taking the over? Yeah. I'll take the over with you. All right. That ends this episode. Thanks for tuning in, guys.

We appreciate it. And we'll be back tomorrow. with another one.