Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 166 | Placin' Bets

Episode Date: July 3, 2020

Betting odds are out for the upcoming 60-game season so Jomboy, Jake, and Trevor Plouffe are telling you where to sprinkle a little cheese on team over/unders, sneaky MVP picks, batting title favorites, surprise playoff teams, and more! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome back to talking baseball. We hope you're gearing up for a fantastic 4th of July. We're going to talk about some gambling and bets and baseball. Let's do it. What's going on, everybody? Welcome back to talking baseball. My name's Jimmy sitting right next to me is Jake. We got Trevor Plouffe coming to you're from California.

And we are talking baseball and some bets for this shortened 6.000. game season. But first, Jake, can you give us a year by year history of your 4th of July celebrations? Let's see. Spent a lot of years at the Middlebury Recreation Area playing in the 3V3 basketball tournament and then going up to the friend Kenny and Greg's home, a lot of wiffle ball, some drinks as we got older. And yeah, just some good. times throughout the years. Beer party type weekends. Wow.

So excited to get back to Connecticut. You know, if Trevor Plouf was on time today, you know, I'd be a little less clammy because I have to catch a ride home with some friends. But, you know, now I'm playing tight. Wow. I'm playing. Treyf, what's your 4th of July history? You just play baseball every year?

First, I need to address that what Jake just came at. Right here. I was on the grill, okay? I did lamb. French lamb. Dig it. Did that on the grill. Then I had to wait for my tri-tip to get the temp so I could sear them off.

How do you know the lamb was French? Because I'm French. Plufa. Yeah. But yeah, Fourth of July has always been baseball. Last year was my first year here. And we went to like a beach and watched fireworks. This year is going to be different.

Obviously, we'll be at home. don't tell anybody but I have some fireworks small ones small ones safe small ones but that's what I'll be doing what are you I was trying to find your numbers on 4th of July which there is a way to do it but I don't have it I think I was you know what I always love the like the different holiday games where you got to wear a different jersey so 4th of July is awesome because you had the cool Stars and Stripes thing. I was big on Memorial Day. Jackie Robinson Day.

I have a few homers. Always love that. It felt special to me. They should have that stat, special Jersey stat. Special Jersey Day. You know, Father's Day, Memorial Day, Labor Day, Mother's Day, Jackie Robinson Day.

Okay. I bet my numbers are better than Jeter's on those days. I don't know. I wouldn't make that bet. I wouldn't make that bet. He's pretty good. I was saying defensively. Oh, well, baseball reference is my very good friend.

Everyone loves those defensive holiday stats. Yeah, there's our niche. Those are niche. I DMed baseball reference today because I needed help finding stuff for the show and they responded and helped me. So I can find out. Shout out. They're like, hey, do a special jersey day, you know? Are the Padre's better when they wear those camo ugly shits?

I think it's like every Sunday for them. You think those are ugly? Oh, yeah. I don't mind him. You hard-pressed to show me something that's camo and have me not think it's ugly. Wow. Okay. Remind me to never wear camo around you?

Yeah. Happy Fourth of July to the troops. Jesus. Well, I mean, troops can wear camo, but I don't think like, you know. I never seen an outfit, been like, yeah, that's a fucking fire outfit. Tough break. Yeah, camo gross. Tough break.

Leave camo for the camouflage. Do you like other other, like, different jerseys? Or are you just, like, boring because you're a Yankees? No, no, I like... Only want pinstripes. Well, for the Yankees, I only want pinstripes. But I like a lot of the Father's Day and Mother's Day and all those iterations. I like when they put the American flag in the logo of the hat.

You know, like it'll be like the W for the Nationals, and it's the flag in the letters. I like that. I'd like to talk to whoever designs all these things because a lot of the time they miss. Yeah, his name is Henry. It's really easy, like you said, just the stars and stripes. thing into logos classic like probably just stick to that every year there's been a couple different um renditions of it that just kind of yeah yeah it's hard all right let's get into this we got uh we're gonna go through some of the prop bets that are fun some of the team over unders

everyone's got a couple bets they want to lay out on the table here we're going to start with the one that treves already tweeted about as a company we're going to be all in on this hammering will a player hit more than 20 home runs? I'm a hard yes. Jake's a hard yes. Trev, you're a yes because you're a company guy and the company's betting on this,

but you're actually a no. Would you like to present your side first? I will. I will be betting along with the company because I do think I want to root for that. Obviously everyone wants to root for the overs. That's the easy way out. But, you know,

I've been a casual gambler for quite some time. and you don't want to be on the easy side. That's just how it goes. This bet particularly, we're talking about 20 homers and 60 games. I've said that I don't think guys are going to play 60 games. I think we're going to be, I think, I mean, maybe a few guys will do that. But around league-wide, I would say of the starters, average is going to be around 50 to 52 games. It doesn't leave a lot of room for air.

Guys are going to have to get hot and stay hot. so is it the field and that helps obviously yes but in this season when we're doing this spring training where guys aren't going to really have truid bats and then go straight into rila bats i just i think guys are going to come out a little cold and we're going to settle around like a 17 homer champ this year. That's my guess. But I will be rooting for the over, no doubt. Okay.

Jake? Yeah, I'll fluff Trevor up before I put him down is I think the last time this hasn't happened in the first 60 games, and Jimmy did the research on this, but I believe it was 2018. Otherwise, it's happened almost every year for the past decade. I think it was 2010 before that. Yeah, in the last year. 10 years we've had 13 players hit more than, or no, more than that. Hold on, hold on.

Hold on. In the last 10 seasons, we've had 14 players hit 20 or more home runs within the first 60 games. Now, we're not talking a random 60 game stretch. We're talking break camp, first 60 games of their team. So not the first 60 games for the individual player, first 60 games on the schedule. We've had 14 guys do it in the last 10 years. Every year besides 2018, like Jake said. And in 2018, Mike Trout hit 19.

And in 2018, three guys hit 19. So it's not like it was very close. And there's another year in there, I forget, 2011 or 2010. So two out of the last 10 years, we haven't seen it in the first 60 games. But we've seen 14 guys do it. But what I am saying that to help the underside is that that did happen in 2018. 2017 and 2019, the balls had a little gusto in them. Shout out, Meredith.

I think when you start going back further than that, I think the game has evolved so much between every team having relievers come out that just pump a 98 plus fastball and drop a 90-dick slider. Like I think from the pitching aspect, you know, you can play that card early, that the pitchers are going to be more ready than the hitters. And basically if any hitter has a bad week and a half out of these next two months, they can take themselves out of the race. That being said, I just think there's too much talent in baseball.

And guys get hot, man. And I just think it happens for no other reason than guys get hot and do it. And the bigger thing is, because if you extrapolate this over the year, I mean, 120 games, this would be 40 home runs. So it'd be like a 50-4 homer pitch. 54 home run season. And guess what? That's really hard to do.

Very few people have done that in history of baseball. Two players since 2003 have hit 54 homers or more. But the reason it's hard is because it takes place over 162. You know, there's, Jimmy has been leaning hard into. the 60 games to start a season, which I agree with to a degree. I do think weather is a big factor for a lot of guys, especially, you know, some of the Latin players and things like that who don't like some of the April baseball and such. But I just think for two months, a lot of dudes in Major League Baseball can get hot.

And, you know, if I'm playing the odds there, if I genuinely think there's 20 guys that can do this, you know, I'm saying, hey, you know, one out of 20 is going to. going to be able to do it when you think of some of the great power hitters in the game. Yeah. In the last 20 years, 37 guys have done it. So you can cherry pick stats all day long. And this is something that we're going to have to talk about. It's not really cherry-picked.

It's exactly the situation we're betting on. Do you want me to cherry-pick one for you? Sure, but I'm saying what I'm presenting you isn't cherry-picked. This really isn't either, but it's essentially what you're doing is helping your argument via stats. there's also stats that could go against it. Here's one of them. Okay.

One player in the last four seasons has hit more than 20 to the first 60 games. Just one. And that's what juice balls. So, I, again, I will be rooting for someone to hit 21 home runs. What is that? How many? One player. Has hit...

Four years. Four seasons. That's not true, though. I'm reading it right here. I mean, Mark Trumbo did it. Pete Alonzo did it. Cody Bellinger did it.

Yes. Aaron Judge did it. Christian Yelich did it. So I don't know what you're reading. But I'm reading a... I just told you how many guys have done it. I mean, maybe this is completely wrong, which it could be. But this is four seasons is 16, 17, 18, 19, right?

Yeah, I'm going to send it over. It's been done five times by five different players. Well, then what I'm reading is completely wrong and I apologize for that. Is your 60 games played by the guy? or 60 by the team? By the team. And I don't know. We've got conflicting information early.

But I'm looking at the stat site. Right. You're reading an article that we're relying on some other Jemoke. Yeah. You're the Jemoke running the stats. No, I'm not. Baseball reference gave me the page. Right, but you punched it in.

I'm just saying. I didn't punch it in. I sent me the page. I'm going to send it over because I'm curious to see what you think. It's a pretty reputable. I can click on these five names and go see what I'm looking at, but. All right.

We're betting the over, everybody. Bet responsibly. Root these guys on with us. I think I'll be happy with 21, obviously. Maybe someone will just blow it out of the water and hit 25. I don't know. It's going to be a goal for some guys, man. Like, if you're sitting at 15 with, you know...

I don't think it's a goal. I think... What if you're out of it? Are you going to be trying to up your batting out? You're going to try to lead the league in homers? Yeah. Yeah, so I'm cross-checking this. I don't know why I'm questioning the website,

but five guys have done it in the last four years. Well, then, yeah, okay. Oh, I believe you. You're a baseball reference guru, baby. The best side in the entire world. All right, let's move on. Cool. So we all think that's going to happen.

I don't think the 400 is going to happen, but I'm going to bet on it because I want to have a very hard rooting interest in it. As a company, we'll place that bad. Maybe put a little less money on it. Yeah, I mean, maybe the fun game is, and maybe this is something we could just do with the John Boy media people, is what will the league leader be at after the first month, something like that? You know, maybe we do a T-shirt giveaway or something.

That could be fun. I'm just rooting for someone to give it hell, just to piss off everybody, just so everyone can come out with their article like, does 400's not going to count. And it's like, yeah, everybody knows. Because it's literally a third of the game. So easy, easy, guys. That is definitely going to happen.

But I hope somebody gives it a run just to scare the old timers. But, yeah, and by the way, betting-wise, like, the payout is so bad. I'd rather put $10 on someone doing it so that if it does hit, it's incredible. Do you remember what they were? Then put $100. bucks and you if you put a hundred bucks down you win what twelve dollars something like that it's minus 900 for no so it'd be what 11 bucks

yeah you yeah you get so to risk a hundred bucks you get 10 bucks on a hundred dollars i mean if you really need 11 bucks and you have a hundred just lying around it's a play but i mean if you're sitting there with a hundred bucks in your wallet and you're thinking fuck i need a hundred eleven place the bed and again it's the gamblers canundrum because I'm put that 100 down and let's go big baby but yeah I mean don't see it happening have some fun with it put a dollar down just so you can root for it to happen how about that that's good advice put a dollar down that's what we're basically doing I'm not going to be a dollar put the minimum down so you can root for someone to hit 400 yeah that's what I said I want a rooting interest I think it's

fun okay let's talk about this a little bit give me your option your guy that you think has a chance. I don't have that. I'd have to really look at it. You're in Jervis Solarte. Yeah. Dude, that's tough. You don't want to say Altuve. Look at you. You want to say Al Tuvei.

No, I'm not sure. Al Tuve was going to be the first name off my lips. He's the leader, I think. And the other odd ball is probably another guy you wouldn't think I'd say, Trevor. But it would be like someone like Divers or Devers from the Red Sox. What is that voice? Like if he, that's your voice. That's how you sound in the mic. DJ LaMayhew? Yeah.

I mean, you know, he's obviously got great, great hit tools. But I think someone like, like someone in Fenway, okay, still talking. Like someone at Fenway who can just play monster ball. Like if they can get hot, Endeavors is just crushing it, and, you know, you can do something like that. I mean, to pick the guy who's going to hit Four Hyundai. How about our guy Arias from the twins? Have a little cheddar there, baby. I would say he's probably the most well-equipped to do it.

but it's i mean look that's such a that's so tough it's a ridiculous ass it's a ridiculous yeah i'll be honest with the over 162 games i don't think that ever ever happens again yeah i'm hoping there's like a world 10 years from now where guys just throw harder and harder and there's more homers and strikeouts and there are more ariahs guys that come up and are just trying to slap dick it through shifts and stuff, that'd be a fun little bounce back for the game, but 400 numbers, a big one. Crazy. We'll sprinkle some on there just for fun. Fun.

All right, let's move on to the team over-unders. We're not going to do every single team. We just have a couple here. I can go first because we're talking about the twins. I'm hammering the over on the twins, Trev, and it's more for Minnesota's pride. If they don't get the over, I'm embarrassed for them. I mean, I think they're a hell of a team. It's 34 and a half.

34 and a half is the over-under. I mean, I think they should have the best record in the AL if they are who everyone thinks they are. They have one of the weaker schedules for a team that's as good as they are. They can easily win the AL if they want to. If it's a real season, if it's not any, you know, the crapshoot aspect is always there. I was expecting they're over under to be around 37, which is around 100 wins, which they did last year, right? And, you know, they're playing less good teams and they're playing more bad teams now. So I got the twins over, and I think it's even low.

I think, you know, they don't hit it. I'm embarrassed for them. Yeah. Embarrassed is strong. Embarrassed is strong. There's a lot of twins fans coming at me all the time because they're telling me that I hate the twins. Right. Well, and that's what you're saying.

I think they can do it, and I think they should do it. The White Sox are a lot better, and the White Sox can be a lot better. Yes. So that's the biggest change in division. And, I mean, it's just the 60 games season. That's why I take out the embarrassment part. I mean, you have a bad week to start, and the White Sox are good. Like, that 34 number is perfectly in play.

Yeah, I might be doing a little hyperbole with the embarrassed. But they should hit that over. I thought it was going to be higher than that. Trev? I have, we're doing overs, right? Whatever you want. Just choose a team. We'll call this the team area.

Okay, I'll start with my over. And it's a little bit of a leap of faith in this organization. But like the time has been coming for a long time for them to be good and be what they are. They've had a zillion guys in the top 100 prospects. Mariners. Decent starting pitching. They've invested a lot of money into this ball club. and I think it's, at least for this bet, going to pay off this year.

I'm going to go the over 31 with the San Diego Padres. Okay. Interesting. That's one game over 500. You know, the NOS is not very deep. The AOS has some good teams, but again, not too bad. I think they can sneak out a season where they're one game over 500, and I think I'll cash that bet. this is uh i've been debating hopping on the padre's train i i like it i mean tautis for a full year

if he can stay healthy like he could get some sneaky mvp love we'll get there in a little bit um yeah man i i'd like them to get one more bad i've been pushing a for them to sign puig thing i think he'd actually be a fit and he'd make that team really fun i mean you obviously can't do that right now there's going to be a team in the n l west that's a layup like it's either going to be the The D-BACs or the Rockies. One of those teams is going to win a lot of games, and that's the fun of betting. So, yeah, I like that. Thank you.

Yeah, I'm kind of a shrug on it. I could see it happening pretty easily, but I could also see it not happening, so I don't have a hard take either way. The pitching needs to, like, really hold up. A lot of young. A lot of you. It's young. And look, if we're talking about a season where distractions are at a minimum for these young teams,

that's this year. I think it's the opposite, which is I think distractions are all-time high for teams. Like Boone's press conference today was the only thing I'm focusing on is making sure that we don't let all of the distractions of this season get in a way of playing. And I just did, he said he did a whole meeting with every player,

make sure you hold each other accountable because there's going to be a lot of distractions this year. So what are the distractions? I mean, dude, getting tested twice a day, monitoring your health nonstop, you can't spit seeds. It's going to feel the least like baseball that these professional baseball players have ever felt. There's no distractions. You can't go out.

The whole health thing is an distraction, Trev. They're not going to be able to exist on the field as they have their entire lives as baseball players. I just agree to disagree because I think everyone's going to be a good boy in the hotel room. there's not going to be late nights out on the town and because they have to hold each other accountable and not do all this stuff, I think it's going to play well for the younger teams. I think the speculation is fun because you could go other way with this.

You could go young guys are better this year because they're young and loose and doing it. You could go old guys because old guys are prepped and they're going to be professional and do their thing. There's less distractions off the field in theory. There could potentially be a ton with the COVID stuff and more so reporters and hammering that type of stuff into the,

ground. So I don't know what I think. The thing is, there's no reporters. There's no reporters this year. You're going to have to do like a Zoom press conference, one or two guys after the game. The rest of the guys are not to talk to anybody. Yeah.

You know what I like about the Padres? Their bullpen, they picked up a lot of bullpen arms. They got Pomerant's. They got Pagan. Is that you say his name? Amelia. And, um... Pergone.

Kirby Yates at the end. Kirby Yates at the end. Obviously, but Pomerant and Pagon are new. And if this is a... And they've got a bunch of other young guys. So if you have one take the leap, this is a weapon. year out of the pan and stuff that will that'll help them they've they've they've got arms and you know paddocks like does paddock take a leap do any of their other young arms take a leap i'll put the

podrays as a first week team okay the first two weeks if they get out to a bad start i think they may never recover because they're like hey it's a development year anyway if they get out to a hot start in the first two weeks like the mariners did last year like think of how much that's going to help a team like the mariners got the two weeks if you're like 14 and whatever you know you're going to be like, oh shit, guys, we're halfway there, basically. Just win 14 more and we're in the playoffs. I think every team last year had a stretch of 60 games that they were around 500 except the Tigers and the Orioles. Yeah.

We still have no schedule. Right. It's supposed to come next week, which is exciting. And that'll be fun. My two team ones that jumped out, I'm going to keep it on I-95. The Orioles are at 20 and a half, and I'm going under. and I just think the reason why is in this short and season

you're penciling in whatever wins you can when teams are playing the Orioles they're not normally in years you're saying like hey let's get our two out of three three out of four let's win this series against the Orioles they're a bad team this year teams are going to be saying we need to win every game against them

so I think the Orioles are just going to get punched in the mouth Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute. Yes. I don't know if it was last show or was two shows ago. Both of you were saying the exact opposite thing. You're saying we can save Cole, Tanaka, and Paxton against the Orioles. You misheard me and I didn't correct you at the time.

I did not. I said that save them in the NL East, make sure you win the AL East. Jimmy's all about the division, like the actual AL East. The Yankees need to take, they need to go nine and one against the Orioles. Jimmy thinks a game against Tampa is essentially worth double than a game against the Braves this year. It is. In the ALEs. So that's that's that.

I think a game against the Orioles is more important than a game against the Nationals. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, sure, in division, yeah. But doesn't make that much sense, man, because there's no like divisional record. It's just overall record. Yeah, but I mean, the Orioles aren't a threat, so it doesn't work there. But for the Ray's and the Red Sox, you give them a loss. when you beat them. It's worth two points.

Sure. Whenever you play somebody, yeah. Yeah. In divisions, not for the national team. And I fought that a little bit because I think the season's too tight as well, but I do get it. I like that one. You'll see some of that. I just think, dude, think about all the good teams on the East Coast, the Nats, the Mets, the Braves, the Phillies, the Yankees, even the Js, the Red Sox, and the race, all of those teams are saying when we play the Orioles, we need to sweep.

We better win eight. So I think the Orioles might get tossed this year. So I'm going under on the O's, and I'm keeping it in the beltway, and I'm going to go over for the Nats. I don't love the number 34, but I talked myself into the pitching thing, and I just think they've got horses, and I think those are very much going to play this year. I loved your thought process that the hangover, they got to rest, man. They got to drink the water, have the Tylenol and take a nap. They're good to go again.

There's no World Series hangover. The Metslaas Cinderguard, the baby Braves are going to be good. They did lose Donaldson. They replaced them with Ozuna, but I think what Donaldson did last year is more impactful. And I don't know. I just that Nat's pitching staff, I mean, Scherzer and Strasbourg don't have to do it over a full year. Like I think those guys are just going to shove. So I'll go with it.

I'm basically flip-flopping on what was my whole office. offseason take of the Nats pitching staff and old men not being able to carry it out. But I actually love them in this short season. I'm going to keep it with Jake because you're talking about the NL East. So I'll stay there. Sure. It's not an over-under for a team bet. I didn't have an under.

But I don't know how to phrase this. Don't hold me to this, but I'm interested in this bet. Okay. So it's, I think it's plus 200. and it's will the Phillies make the playoffs. And what I'm doing is just putting trust in Gerardi because if there's two things Joe Girardi's good at as a manager, one, navigating a bullpen to make sure you have arms when you need arms at the pen,

which I think is going to be crucial for a short season. Two, keeping his players on fucking edge and making sure they understand every game is important. It's why he got run out of New York and they didn't want him anymore because he made the Yankees too tight. They were wound too tight. Every game they said he made it feel like it was do or die. That may play. We've also seen Joe Girardy take some god-awful Yankee teams,

2013, 2014, even 2015 in a way, and make them 90-game winners or competitors. So I don't like it. It's not a lock, but I'm interested in, if all they have to do is you get a wild card spot, I think Joe might be able to ring out a bunch of wins out of that team. And keep in mind, the expanded postseason is still on the table.

Well, that, then I would change all these sides. I know. It's crazy. They're still talking about, like, there's still time to come to an agreement. There hasn't been a mandation just yet. So that would be interesting. They're one of my favorite teams to watch this year because, like, they're in win now mode. They went out and spent a zillion dollars on Bryce Harper. They spent a ton of money on Andrew McCutcheon. They haven't really received much out of those two acquisitions yet. But these guys are, I mean, Bryce Harper could be the MVP this year, and no one would bet, and I.

Is D. Rob healthy now? A lot of people get mad. D. Rob is healthy? I don't know. I'm asking. He is. He's supposed to be coming back, at least. And when we talked to him, he said he was like, I'm on path to crash.

If there's one team, and, like, obviously, I have a little bit of a history with these guys. if there's one Yeah, but when we talked to him at Spring Training, he said he was going to be ready way before the expected return date and he may, I don't know if there's an update. We have to check that out. But this team is like,

they're going to be in it to win it, to get to the postseason they are going to be playing with that fire because they were a disappointment last year. You know, in a season when you had World Series expectations and then just didn't happen, whether it was from injuries, people not living up to

their potential, whatever it was. They're hungry this year. And they have a bunch of guys, a bunch of kind of like alpha dudes that know that happened last year and they don't want it to happen again. So like those clubhouses, you're going to have that feeling in every clubhouse, but this one is going to be emphasized like you're saying, even Joe Girardi is going to be pushing them, pushing them, pushing them. And if I know Harper, like he's going to be leading the charge in that clubhouse, like wanting to get to the playoffs. He has a chip on his shoulder.

The Nationals won the World Series last year. He came out and said he was very happy for them. I'm sure he was, but let me tell you something that's got to hurt. Yeah. Robertson says he's not ready, but he thinks he'll be back halfway through or he's like a month out, he said, something like that. So he'll be around.

Yeah, I mean, I like it because you're getting a return on the bet too. The pitching's just scary, and they've basically got to be better than one of the Nats or the Braves. And I just, I can't see that. I mean, let me say, I can see anything in a 60 game season, but they just, that lineup needs to be, like, deadly. And their two studs, Nola and Wheeler have to be complete studs. Yeah. Which, hey, all of that can happen. But, yeah.

But that's why it's got a decent payout. So I like that. Yeah. Did you have another team, Trev? I mean look, I'm going to go the same way that Jake went with the Orioles. If you look at the Central Division, you see who's there. You got the Tigers. They're just not a really good baseball team, man.

And they're at 21 and a half over under. Seems like easy pickings right there with that under. And baseball teams are going to be fighting the entire way. Baseball's been trending that way. Like the Astros, Yankees have put a big win number. in recent years. And other baseball teams are fine with quote-unquote tanking. And I feel like Vegas kind of hasn't realized that yet. A team like the Tigers is going to use this as a development year. They're going to put some guys in the position into big leagues to have some at bats that maybe

aren't ready, but they want to get them some exposure to big league at bats. When you're doing that throughout the season all year, it's not going to be good for you. I love garden hire. great guy. He knows what he's in for there. He knows that he's there to help these guys develop. And probably by the time that they get good, he's going to retire. But that looks to me, I just like, when you brought up the Orioles and I'm looking through this again, I saw the Tigers. I'm like, that's the same story for the Tigers. Yeah. It's true. Maybe a little bit lesser of a division in the Centrals, but there's still enough good teams there. And like, they don't get to play themselves. I think the Tigers might be worse than the Orioles.

The only difference is the Royals. The Royals aren't going to be going in and saying like, we got to get our wins against the Tigers because I think the Royals also don't care about winning that much either. So those are the only 10 games, which makes up a good chunk of the 60 game schedule where I think literally every team, even the baby Js right now, because they got all that pitching and all that young talent, even they think they can get a wild card spot if they just crushed the other. So I do a slight difference. But I agree.

I mean, everyone's going to do it. But those 10 games against the Royals, maybe they don't care. Me, Reiki. Yeah. All right. Let's move on. Now, what did website? Was it? Bovada? Bavada. We're getting all our numbers from Bavada for now. And they gave individual batting average over unders, which are so ridiculous and silly. I took an angle and did some research, but Jake, you said you had one that was staring you down. So I've got two. I've got one I love and one that's got a pinstripe twist to it.

the one I love, a guy that I know ploof tastes. I don't know if you can use it like that. We're tasters. We're a pro-taster pot, dude. It's usually taste yourself. Don't make it weird. I'll taste other dudes. Paul Goldschmidt.

Oh, okay. Without you guys looking, what do you think the over-under on Goldie's batting average? $2.85. I was going to say the exact same thing. They have it at $2.75. He's in games, in years he's played over 100 games, he's only been under 275 once. It was last year, and it was his first year with the Cardinals. And I think, you know, he was adjusting to a new place.

I mean, Goldschmidt, I could give him a shout out in the MVP if I wanted to. But, dude, look at his body of work, like 275, I'm all over that. And the other one that I had was, I threw DJ LaMayu in there. they have him at $290. He had a really good year last year. I don't think he can replicate that because it was such a special year. But with the dudes who are going to be behind him in the Yankees lineup and just his ball to bat skills,

I think he's going to be over $290. $2.90 is almost my floor for Lamey. Okay. I like the Goldschmidt. I do. I think Bovado is using the same research department that I used. Uh-oh. Because Paul Goldie's a slow starter.

he has been and then he picks it and he goes nuts yeah which I'll play the weather card there he just likes a little heat baby yeah it's it's you know because yeah so that's how I did a lot of my research for this

like I looked at Freddie Freeman his overrunners 295 pretty high in 2017 his first 60 games he had a 316 batting average 2018 328 batting average 209 306

He's been well over 295 The last three seasons In his first 60 games of the season He's a good starter He plays really well the first two months of the season So I'm going to go over Which is a high It's a gamble because that's a high one to go over

That's how I did my research on this I just looked at guys first 60 games Throughout their career Who's a hot starter? Because like if Tashara was on this You'd bet the under no matter what it is One of the slowest starters You'll find in baseball

the other one is Red Sox, Ben and Tendi. They have him at 2.75. Also phenomenal first couple months, guy. Last three years, 281, 298. So I'd take me over there. And J.BJ for the Red Sox. They have him at 240. Last season, it was 199.

Season before that, it was 181. There was one year where it was like, oh, something. then like, just play defense, JBJ and you'll be fine. So I'm taking the under on JBJ, 240. Trevor? I hate talking negatively about people. I didn't want to do any unders. I like that you have an angle.

Yeah. I like that you have an angle. I do believe in something to the startup. I do genuinely believe in the heat to a degree. And the only thing that I would flip, I wouldn't take the JBJ is, if I'm someone who's not necessarily known as a hitter, This year I'm using as my dream season.

Like if I'm JBJ, I'm saying like, I'm about to hit three bills and then I might even roll my ankle and sit out a couple days. You don't know that maybe they're telling them like, that's because I'm a total schlop. You're out there for defense, J.B.J. Like, you know, calm down. I got one. Okay.

And I don't like to do this. This guy's from my area. We don't know each other that well. Obviously familiar with him. But he's new on the Red Sox. he's a really good defender. Okay. But this is tough for me to say.

Kevin Pilar is listed at 270 over under, and I'm going to have to lean on the under there. He's only once in his career hit over 270. So to me, it's a fishy line, which usually you stay away from, but numbers support the under like crazy here. 270? I will put that down.

a bet that I'd like to take. Doesn't mean he's going to be a bad offensive player. It just means that 270 is going to be, it'll be one of his best years. Why do they have it at 270? As far as batting average. You're right. That's a fishy line.

It's very fishy. And then you go into the east, I mean, he's going to be facing some good pitching. So, you know, last year he had a pretty good year with the Giants. But, again, if I'm looking through here, and his batting average, only one time, and that was in 2015, he had 278. everything else has been right around 250, 260.

And my research in his first 60 games, in the last four seasons, he's never above 270. Yeah. I saw that kind of jumped out at me. Last six seasons, he's never been above 270 in his first 60 games, nor has he ever been above 270 in a full season. Is that what you're telling me? One time.

Once. 2015, he had 278. The fuck is that line. Vegas always knows If they hit on that line If it's like the over right around 270 That's fucking weird 270 is a pretty good batting average

Okay like obviously everyone's always like 300 300 300 300's a joke If you have 300 you're like On fire all year 270 is like that's a really good year And then you look at kind of what he's done Well in his simulated games right now He started hot for the Red Sox

Got traded He did. To Mariners? Damn. Big Tray. His simulations are hot. Is that because he's going to have... Why are they doing simulated trays?

You never know. He had a great spring training. Yeah. I think here's... I'll just put weird how my brain thinks about it. Is that let's say someone's normally a 250 hitter and we'll use that as the, you know, for whatever this year. If you're normally a 250 hitter and you're normally a 250 hitter and you, get an extra hot two weeks, like you get a hot two weeks in this season, you are a 270 hitter.

Like I just, I think that's kind of. That's a spin zone. Yeah, it's a weird jakey spin. But no, I mean, all of the numbers say. If you get cold for two weeks, you're a 220 header. All of the numbers say no, exactly. All of the numbers say no, which makes me scared of Vegas, which basically has Pilar hitting 295 in my head.

He might. I mean, that's what the projections have met right now. It's weird, man. The O-O-T-P. But that one stood out to me because I saw that And I said, I'm familiar with him Kind of follow him And 270s, that's, that's a

It's gonna be tough. Yeah, weird. I hate doing unders with this. I want to root for guys. Yeah. I did overs on two guys, but J.B.J. is like, what are we looking at here? Freddie Freeman, though.

And I do think the heat and the hotness, Jake, I do like that more for like extra base hits and home runs. Like turning doubles into homers. I think that's a good, argument for the 20. Okay. Homers in a season.

Which we're all on, but Treps is half not on. Gosh, I want to give an over. Now I've got to look there and give an over because I feel so bad. Find an over. I'll scroll and land on a player and we have to give an instant. I got one already. I got one already. I mean, I can't believe this number either.

Unbelievable. This guy's a good hitter. So good. Friend of the program. David Doll. The Moose. Well, they got moose at. Guess.

I would guess 275. 255. Ooh. Moose can hit. If there's one, if there is one thing, this guy can do. He hits.

He's a hitter. He's a ball player. It's all he likes to do. He's going to hit over 255. Staying in the same division? I was going to say. Like he got traded with the same division. That was shocking to me that's a 255.

He's shocked. I am going to text Moose and say, I am putting a decent amount of money on you to hit over 255. Please do not disappoint me. Trev, last year's first 60 games, 275. Year before that, 270. Year before that, 282. What's you doing?

Come on Vegas. This is fishy. I feel like I got two locks on me. Tell Moosey's got a hit over 260 this year or Teddy's going to state school. I don't know what that means, but okay. That's how much cheese you're betting on them. Let's go, baby. I think that, I mean, those two that I gave, I am stoked on it.

Enjoy the free money, people. I still have to do research if I need to officially retire to be able to place bets. Sure. I'll be making a call to my agent today. All right. So we're just going to move on to the awards. And if you guys have takes, give them. If not, we'll just let you know what Vegas thinks.

we got the MVP American League MVP we did this on the other on last episode Trout's the favorite by like so much and then

money basically Yeah to win 10 for Troutter which is insane Then they have a Yankee next They have Judge or Glaber as being the next two But it jumps up a lot

Do you have any any sneaky ones Any value picks here Or should we just move forward? I think we talked about the best value last time. Yeah, I do think that's still good.

He's a good trick card. Do they have him listed here? I see him, yeah, he's plus 1,800. Hasn't moved. I think that is... Obviously, this is a crap shoot when you're talking about who's going to win one individual award.

But I think if I was just sprinkling money on something like this... And now I'm looking... Oh, man. Everything I've ever said is... Against what I'm about to say. but Garrett Cole at plus 3,500, that's not a bad pick. It's an interesting twist.

So, but I'll still go show Hayatani at plus 1,800 is one that I think you could look at. Again, you know, here you start looking at Dark Horse, is the two guys that kind of jumped out to me were Jose Ramirez, a guy who's got some top five MVP seasons and he gets hot. Like he was, he has stretches where he gets hot, he can turn it on. I think his last 60 games last year He had a one dot something OPS And if he leads Cleveland to the Central or something like that

He's a guy who gets hot It's a crazy payout And then I mean I already did one pinstripe thing Gary Sanchez I won't really say it No don't just save it because I'm doing something for them Okay I'll save that Matt Olson

Matt Olson's got some stats and he's gorgeous So those are my deep cuts Okay Love Maddie Gary Sanchez plus 5,000. Gary Sanchez plus 5,000. Okay? You want to make some money.

Trev. Yes. How are you doing? I'm stalling right now. Oh, okay. I could go on and give you some more. Look at this. Best friend of the pod.

National League's Sai Young. Jack Flaherty is third in Vegas, Oz, to win the Sai Young at plus $6.50. Oh, no, he's fourth because, well, Walker Bueller's in there at plus 500. So he's fourth. Dude, the Dodgers... What was the Dodgers over under? They're just going to crush everyone.

It was like 41. No, I don't love that. It would have been 41. Yeah, it was. 41 and the half, I think. That was 38. I'll get it up right now. Get it up.

The NL. Salyung stacked at the top. I mean, it's DeGrom, Scherzer, Flaherty, Walker, Bueller. After that, the next best odds guy is you Darvish, which, no offense to you, but... Oh, sorry. The Dodgers was 37 and a half. Oh.

But I thought I saw one that was 41. Apologies here if you want it. My bad. It's fine. What's 31 divided by three? Oh. 10.3. Yeah.

Cool. Bingo. I don't know if what I'm doing is worth it. What are you doing right now? Looking up Gary Sanchez's numbers in July and August because that's MVP numbers. Yeah. I don't know if you know this about Trav, but Gary Sanchez, one, Teddy Bear Gere, two, cutest guy in the league. Three hits homers in August.

It's got 31 home runs in August and 20 home runs in September. In two seasons, basically. I mean, he's a slow starter. That's what that tells me. No, he's got 16 home runs in April and March, 17 in May. He's the second fastest player ever to 100 home runs. Dude hits home runs. But in August, he's got a 1.9.4.

OPS in September in 807 OPS. So plus 5,000. If you want to just, you know, drop $5 and maybe someone finds it and they give you whatever back. Yeah. $500. If I told you, you could place a $10 bet on the fastest A.O player ever to 100 home runs, $10 to win $500.

I don't know. It's something. Sorry for all the Yankees' bias. It's there. Was there anything else in the MVP? What's the National League MVP? NL MVP. Betts?

Bet's the favorite in the NL. Betts is the big favorite in the NL, which I actually hate. Yeah, me too. Switching divisions. I mean, he's obviously Mooky Betts. He's awesome. But dude, give me Acuna and Yelich. Yelich at plus 700?

Like, I know those aren't deep cuts, but give me those dudes. Place a bet on both of them. Why don't you do Goldie? Plus 3,000? I think you're sitting well. Yelich looks great. Yelich looks good. I can't believe that number.

Oh, you know who I like, plus 4,000? Yep. DeGrom. Oh, no. Do you remember some of DeGrom's 10 game stretches? Yeah, he goes nuts. Be like 10 and 0 with a 0-97. This is one of the years where I think, like, you know, obviously a pitcher has won the MVP before.

But if there was ever a year where it's more, What's the word I'm looking for? It could happen more. Likely. Realistic. Yes, thank you. No problem. I think this year the voters are going to be inclined to switch it up because it is a different year.

And every game is worth so much that if a guy goes out and dominates, a de Grom, a Flaherty, whoever it is, goes, shit, called 9 and 1 with like a 1-something. Yeah. we'll get MVP votes if not win the MVP. Yeah, in 2018, through his first 12 games, DeGrom, out of one-four-nine ERA. That could get it done. Yeah. The last one I wanted to touch on.

Yeah, the last one I wanted to touch on was most regular season homers, because that's a fun one. Yeah. And there's some pretty fun numbers, and I think some guys that, yeah, you could just take a chance on, you know, though 10 bucks, whatever it is.

I'll start. Please. and this is a little homer bias for me. Yep. But I like the lineup and I know this player when he gets pitches to hit, we'll hit homers. And he's going to get pitches to hit. Miguel, so no. Yeah.

Is that plus 2000. I mean, the guy hit like 36 and 119 games two years ago. Like you surround that guy with Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz. I mean, oh, yeah. He just to do is touch the ball. It's gone. Big boy. So I'm a big fan of that. I think that's a pretty good bet.

If I had to just sprinkle a little cheese on the most regular season homers, I would take old Miguel there. That's good. I like that. I mean, he's a monster. The guy that stood out to me was Joey Gallo. I mean, Gallo's stupid. I mean, he hit 22 and 70 games last year.

So like, we're in the ballpark already. No, in Texas heat, they turned it down. They cooled it off a little bit of a new stadium. Ball ain't going to be flying as much. I've heard some, I've actually heard a mixture of views on how the ball is flying. So we'll see. That's definitely something you have to take into consideration there. Him and this is actually, I didn't have Matt Olson MVP.

I actually had Matt Olson here. I think that's more realistic, yeah. this could go, you know, anyway. Mike Trout is the favorite in this. He's never led to league in home runs. I will say this. It also has never had 20. Just relax on all these.

Relax on all these prop bets and stuff. Like this is not where you want to be sprinkling your cash. Oh, sprinkled. But just for the fun of it. Yeah. We'll talk about it. Cy Young, you got DeGrom leading the National League with Scherzer and Flaherty there, Walker Bueller, all that.

the Sy Young and the American League was interesting because they only give you so many players. And Jake and I were talking about it in Lazzardo, the A's rookie is plus 4,000. The rookie. Let's see it in the show, kid. Yeah. That's weird that he comes up. That's like, how do they, people must be betting on him because they think the value's there. Yeah, there's a lot of guys I'm looking at like, how is that even possible?

It's a storyline. But yeah, these are all a crapshoot again. I don't. And then the other one that I don't expect any of us to have any takes on, but Rookie of the Year, like, I know that I scroll just to see what Vegas thinks and, like, who's the rookies we should be watching out for? I can't find it on my screen right now. But Gavin Lux,

Yep. Friend of the program. Running away with it. Is running away with NL Rookie of the Year. I think Key Boom's next, but they keep saying they don't even know if he's ready. Yeah. So Gavin Lux and then in the American League, it's,

ooh, Casey Mize and Kopeck. Kopeck, is that you say it? Lopez Robert is needing. Louis Robert's the favorite. Why do they have these in such a weird fucking order? Yeah, Louis Robert already got paid, so. Watch out for Brendan McKay. You know, he's kind of supposed to be the Otani light.

If he can, and he's got a little bit of big league experience. We saw him last year. Like, that's the only thing with, like, Luis, Robert for me. He could be all the talent in the world, which he's supposed to be. But, you know, if you have a rough month as a rookie, which so many rookies do, like, you're, you're kind of out. This is even a bigger crapshoot than the rest of it. I mean, you can't rely on any of these guys. They're not proven players. I know. It's just funny to see who they are. Know what the big money there is? Nate Pearson on the Blue Jays. Dude's a monster. I think the Jays think this 60 game is a nice window.

they signed Ryu. Pearson, I think he hits hunch casually. Plus 2,000 for a guy that might get 11 starts. I'm there. Okay. If he gets a game against the Mets, that'll be fun. Hunge.

Kopec is a fun one because we've seen what he can do a little bit. I've faced him in the bushes. He is a gorgeous human being. Yeah, he's a hot boy? Yeah, no, you get points. in my book if you're a hot boy. Yeah. And he's a big, strong hop boy. So, yeah, Kopeck. You know. Oh, he's like a long-haired southern. Oh, he's a California.

Yeah. No, it's not, I don't think he's from California. I think he's from the south, just by you looking at pictures of his hair. Texas. Okay. So he's a Texas quarterback type. Yeah, Texas quarterback. That's what he looks like, yeah, for sure. Yeah. Big fan. Look at this. We're just lost in his pictures. He just gave so many picks. He knows what he's doing too much for my liking. Yeah, he's got it.

He's got it. He's got it. And, you know, the Red Sox got that ring and everything. But if Kopec is the real deal, he's engaged to the star actress on Riverdale. Vanessa Morgan. Oh, this guy's got it. He's got all the confidence in the world.

Got to love that. Dude, Kopeck and the guy who's, he was in the MVP voting at third base. What's that fool's name? Having a brain fart. Who? More info needed. The guy in the White Sox was a stud. Juan Munkata.

Oh, yeah. It was Munkata, Kopeck, and a couple other dudes for sale. And if Munkada looks like the truth, he's actually got pretty decent MVP odds. If Kopeck is right, man. White Sox did good there. Oh, yeah. They won that trade. Let me ask you,

we did a lot of bets right there, a lot of picks. A lot of free money. People are like, fuck, you just talked about so much. Give me your best bet that you just talked about. I'd like to do that as we end this show. Your lock of the props.

Give us your lock. My lock is Mike Mustok is hitting over $255. Yeah. Okay, so out of ones that we've already said? Yes. That's my lock. Okay. He's a hitter.

And he's going to be in Cincinnati, bro. That's a good one. The natty. I'm putting that down right now, lock it up. Mike Mustakis. Not the best value out there because I don't even know what the value is on it. But if one I think is, like, for sure going to hit, it's this one. Twins over is the one I think is the easiest for me.

I was shocked it wasn't around 36, 37. I'm Goldie in the Orioles, man. Goldschmidt 2.75, Orioles under 20 and a half. Do you guys, did you give two, Jim, or just one? Just one lock. I gave two. I'm a peacock. You know that.

Got to let them fly, Trev. I love both my batting average ones. Do it. Free money, man. Don't shoot scared. Okay. I'm just, no, I'm giving one lock. That's what locks are.

You don't just lock up something just to lock it up. You only lock it up if it's. to lock. Mike Mustakis, over 255 in the 2020 season is a lock. Okay. Lock it in, everyone. So write these down, keep track them at home, embarrass us when we're wrong, and that's the whole gig.

Yeah. And if you want to ride with us as a company, we're going over 20 homers. We're still debatable about the 400. We need to talk about that one a little more. No, we're sprinkling a couple dollars on it. We're just sprinkling. We're rooting for greatness. Yes.

Okay. Hawking Baseball motto. That is our official motto. We are rooting for greatness. Not striving for it. Not trying to attain it. No, we're not striving for greatness. We got you Tyler Wade prop bets?

What? Do you need Tyler Wade prop bets? Yeah, I don't think he's listed on here because he's probably not going to get a lot of time. No. I thinkies are just kind of too good. No, no Tyler Wade. Wade Davis plus $4,000 for most regular season save. So what if I told you, Tyler Wade prop bet?

20 runs scored. Looks like me. Under. All those extra running runs. All right. I think that's it, guys. I think we did it. We did such a good job.

We hope you have a great 4th of July weekend. Enjoy the family and the son and the friends. When you get back, it's baseball time. Guys are going to be playing. Camps are going to be going, and we're going to have some storylines and some fun to talk about. So thanks for hanging out with us. We will see you later.

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