Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 276 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: February 17, 2021

Jomboy, Jake, & Plouffe preview the 2021 Pittsburgh Pirates, who you guys ranked the #30 team in baseball! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to talking baseball. Team profile and projection number one, 30 teams, 30 mini episodes to gear you up for the season. Let you know what happened. We had you guys decide the order we put out a poll. I think 1,500 plus people voted and the pirates revoted the last place team in all of baseball. So we're going to get started. We're just going to go around the horn and let you know what's going on. with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

They finished 19 and 41 last year, extended out on pace to finish 52 and with 110 losses. They have not won the division since 1992. Big Baby David, our young producer, has never been alive for the pirates winning the division. And I don't think it's about to happen this year. Jake, can you tell us who they lost? Jim, who they lost, unfortunately. A lot of names you might be familiar with. Jameson Tyone, former top pick trade to the Yanks,

Joe Musgrove, to the Padres, Josh Bell, to the Nationals. And then it trickles off after that. Trevor Williams has thrown some innings for them. He goes to the Cubbies. Derek Holland and the Twilight, J.T. Riddle, your guys, Keone Akila, who they added. They got some prospects back in that Nationals trade, Will Crow. which kind of sounds like Medelline.

That's an old reference. Migi Yahoo from the Yanks-Ronesy. A lot of young pitchers are coming over. David Bednar. Michael Perez from Tampa going to be catching sometimes. He always got game-winning hits, it felt like. So you're not going to know a lot of the guys coming in. You recognize a lot of the guys coming out,

and that's kind of where the pirates are at. Trevor Plouffe, what's going on with the lineup these days in Pittsburgh? I mean, I got a projected lineup, but with a team like this, I don't think you can really nail it down. I think there's going to be a lot of open competition. Let's call it that. But we'll start with the catching position.

Jacob Stallings is kind of going to be the guy there. First base is Colin Moran. Second base. Adam Frazier, this is last year of arbitration in 2021, and then he'll be a free agent. So possibly a trade candidate. We know these pirates are going to like that.

Shortstop right now. They got Kevin Newman penciled in, and it's a really light pencil because there's another guy named Cole Tucker who's also going to be getting a shot there. Here's the guy you can chisel in stone. Third base, Key, Brian Hayes, he'll be there for the next 10 years. Just chisel that in.

He's a stud. Watch out for him. Left field, we got Brian Reynolds, centerfield, Anthony Alford, another possibility for our guy, Cole. And then in right field, Gregory Polanco. You could chisel him in as well until July. And then we'll see him later. Ooh.

And that's the lineup. Who's throwing, Jim? rotation. You names a bunch of guys they lost in the rotation. They got Mitch Keller, Chad Kool, Stephen Bralt, J.T. Brubaker, and Cody Ponce in the bullpen, Richard Rodriguez, Chris Stratton, Michael Filias, Files, Kyle Crick. A lot of names that if you're not a Pirates fan, you probably don't know.

And that's okay. And I think even Pirates fans would be like, yeah, it's okay. Now, they went full tank mode. went full rebuild, and I think that's the nicest thing they've done for Pirates fans in a while. Like I said, they haven't won the division in over 20 years. So something's got changed, new strategy. They've had the people. They kept a bunch of second place finishes in wild card games.

I mean, you know, they got those wild card finishes right when it went to a one game playoff, which is brutal. They have the number one pick in the draft this year. Trev, they're excited about that and the possibility of it. of adding to the rotation. They have some guys in the pipeline that they're excited about. And one that made his debut last year is Key Brian Hayes. And he was their most valuable player in regards to war. And he only played 24 games.

So, I mean, it's good for him, but it's also very telling about this team. Jake, if we were to do, I like there's two things I like for the Pirates. One is Trade Watch, which Trev kind of gave us. Fraser should have been traded. He might be traded before this episode gets released. or before spring training ends. They should have moved him if there's anyone that would take him. It's two years.

Maybe they're hoping he plays into more value and they move him at the deadline. Polanco as well, Polanco's got an interesting contract. I think he's got a team option at the end of this season for big money in 2022 and 2023. They're for sure going to buy him out of that team option. So they may try to move him like Trev said. halfway through and whoever takes him on, we'll then buy him out and he'll become a free agent at the end of the year. So Frazier, Polanco, maybe trade pieces. That's kind of it.

Yeah, I think with Frazier and Polanco, unfortunately, for the pirates in that short season, they were both bad last year. Their OPSs both started with a five. So, Frazier, you know, you're a 25-year-old second base and played 130 games, hit 308 and 800 OPS. You like that. He's kind of got to show it again. You know, he's not a slap dick. a guy that did it for an MLB season. And then last year, you know, you can throw out those 44 games real quickly. So I think him coming back and getting more at bats for the pirates and, hey, you know, if they get some value for him at some point, I mean, he's still pre-arbitration.

So we'll see what that ends up looking like. But prove you can be that kind of around 800 OPS second baseman right now. Because as we do this, there's still guys who can play second base that you can give a pretty cheap contract to and not give prospect capital. So he's kind of got to prove it again. And Polanco, he's got a nice, pretty nice MLB resume. It's a 3.5 million buyout after the season. I'd expect him to be moved.

If he could, if he can show that talent, I mean, a good mix of pop and speed. You'd like to see him traded to a team at the deadline that could use him. But, yeah, I mean, they cleared house. I mean, when you actually go through that name of who's out, And it's, you know, Tyone, Archer. I mean, Musker, like, these are a lot of MLB guys that are going to be important parts of the MLB season this year, but not with the Pirates. Yeah, Trevor Williams, Musgrove and Derek Holland, I believe combined for 25 of their starts in a 60 game season last year. And they lost all three of those guys.

Yeah. So they're going to be a lot of arms. They're a great spot for someone who doesn't get signed. You know, if they want to do a lot of these, by the time this airs or when spring training starting, if there's a lot of older free agents out there that are like, I just want a chance to play and get back into the game and then maybe trade. Like, pirates are going to need guys. They're just going to need warm bodies. So they might be picking up people just to get some reps.

I was in some pirates forums and they were saying that they'd like to see Olivia Oliva. Oliva. Oliva and Alford, like, get reps and see what they've got. They picked up Alfred at the deadline from the Blue Jays last year. I think both those guys just played a little bit in September. Not a lot of fun in Pittsburgh, I think. Tryouts was the word Trev said, and that's what it is. Yeah, I mean, look, they've clearly said we're going to rebuild.

I mean, there's no other message to the world. And they have some pieces there, but they're looking to get that draft capital, see what they got in some of the prospects. I don't even know if they're going to be looking at some of these older free agents. I wonder that. Do they want to bring them in and hope to flip them maybe? But I think they'd rather see some of the younger guys. Or maybe they don't want to start their time.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. If they don't want to start some of these prospects times, they're just going to need warm bodies. There's going to need people to go play. There's no payroll there. So I guess, you know, if you are taking on those cheap contracts, it makes sense. You know, they're looking to go out there and lose games so they can get high draft picks. I mean, that's just the bottom line here. So if you are a Pittsburgh fan this year,

go enjoy a hot dog and, you know, or whatever else. You guys put French fries on your sandwiches, which is really cool. So just go enjoy a day at the ballpark. You're not going to see a great product on the field. If I was a Pittsburgh pirate fan, and I don't mean this in like a negative way. It's just how it's going. Jake's uncle's a huge, huge Pittsburgh Pirates fan. Uncle Rick and Antiris, you guys met them. Go for the ballpark. Most beautiful ballpark in the big leagues. And then I'd go to the games when somebody else is a good team is coming. Or go watch for Cole Tucker or Key Brian Hayes. I don't know.

There's not a lot to be hopeful for this year as a Pirates fan. But I think you know that and you've accepted that. Yeah, I think with the veteran thing, I think we will see some moves, but I don't think they're even MLB contracts. Like Trev, the one that just jumped to my head and he's, he was your guy, he's now my guy. Disco Neil Walker. How about that? A little go back home and get some A-Bs if he's good again.

Like, you're right, Jimmy, they need to, they need something. Well, think about King Felix just joined the Orioles. Right. Because it's his easiest chance to actually crack a top five rotation and get a look in the MLB. That's the Pirates can be the last ditch landing spot for guys looking for that. Yes, but I think the Pirates are looking to bottom out this year. Like the Orioles last year, again, and when we talk about them, you know, Nobody's going to have the Orioles competing for the NLEs.

But they're trying to change the culture there a little bit. They're trying to not just be a dumpster. They got young guys coming up. This is like tryout season for Pittsburgh. And I think next year's the let's bring in some guys to play decent baseball around them. But I think you're finding out, as Trevor said, and you said, Key Brian Hayes, he is the guy. He's kind of been the prospect.

People were talking about him in rare air for defensive third baseman. he even got to the show. And then, by the way, he came up and he raked. So it's 24 games. And basically, basically the scouting report on him from the prospect people for years has been, if he can become a league average hitter, this guy is a borderline all-star.

So if he can hit at above that, which he came up and he did, this guy's a potential star of baseball. Charlie Hayes' son. So it's going to be him. And then Brian Reynolds going back the year before that, he had a really good rookie year. He finished fourth, switch hitting outfielder. So I think right now those are the two pieces you're staring at and Cole Tucker's hair because we love him.

And then you're trying to figure out, will any of these other guys around them either get involved or can Colin Moran take another baby step and become the next trade guy for the pirates? Key Brian Hayes. He played in 24 games like you said yesterday. How many hitless games do you think he had out of those 24? Not a lot. I'm looking at his Babbip right now. It's 4.50, so he could not have. Four.

Four hitless games. He had nine multi-hit games. He had a five-hit game against Cleveland, which I'm kind of interested now and seeing who is pitching for Cleveland. He's going to have to temper his expectations. So Holly McKenzie. Gangbusters. It's going to be a little bit tougher this year for him.

Well, you know, he can go ask Brian Reynolds about that. Brian Reynolds got rookie of the year votes in 2019. He had like an 800 OPS. When we did the TPP last year and the Pirates, were like, shit. A lot of these pirates had good years in 2019. And then, you know, short in season and what does it really mean? But if you were to give fantasy baseball advice and say, hey, who should be looking at the pirates? Key Brian Hayes probably middle rounds.

And then Brian Reynolds later rounds as maybe bank on him going back to form. That's my advice. Flyer. There's so many get their basement out there that I don't know if Key Brian's going to be a middle round guy. But definitely you want to keep an eye on. Like yourself. your second third baseman you pick. Someone might try to beat you to that, though.

Keeper league? Oh, my God. I look, I'm not trying to, I like this guy. Like, I think he's going to be an excellent big league. Just looking at his numbers last year, they're obviously inflated. I mean, that's, you know, he, the one thing I'm curious about is as I go back into his minor league stats, never been a home run guy. And that's okay because you develop power last. That's what happens with guys like this.

But he is, he's 6-1-2-10. He's got the body to hit homers. so if that kind of if we have some regression in the BABIP and some of his numbers come down maybe the home runs come up you know guys when they get to the bitty level they get the big league balls they get better batter's eyes and the NL Central not that good yeah so let's see if he can you know add some power to his repertoire and I think that will be his that would be really good for him if he could do that because he's not going to hit 376 come on it's not going to hit 370s maybe for a 24 game stretch you will Maybe for a three or four games, dredge.

I'm excited to watch him play, though. Some of the arms they added, Will Crow, Eddie Yeen. Eddie Yeen became the Pirates second ranked. I love that name. Eddie Yeen. He became the Pirates second ranked pitcher in their organization after joining them from the trade. I have no idea what that means because I don't know if any Pirates

pitchers are ranked that high, but good for him. Will Crow pitched for the Nationals last year and did all. in like four games, but he's still projected to be pretty good. So we'll see what you got there. Migi Yahoure comes from the Yankees. Everyone said he's MLB Ready. I like Migi Yahoo a lot. I stop there.

MLB Ready is a nice way of saying he doesn't have much more of a ceiling. This is what he's got. Yeah. He can pitch in the major leagues. This is what he's ready for. We don't expect him to get better than this. So mine as well just have him stuck. But that's like very mean.

But he's only pitched in 12 games above single A. So that's the kind of the word thing. Every team this year is going to churn through pitchers. Even the best teams in baseball, you're going to see numerous guys get starts and innings for teams. Pittsburgh's going to be no different. I think the names that jump out are Brawl, Cool, and Keller, Breubaker. I mean, they're the top four of the rotation.

Nice. They jump out, Jake. But these are guys that have pitched major league innings. And hey, look what happened to Joe Musgrove last year. Joe Musgrove throws a couple starts. He spins the ball a little better, and now the Padres, the coolest team in baseball are looking for him. So Brawl, cool, Keller, Brubaker.

You guys are going to get innings. Twirl it, man. You know, work on your stuff, get better. And, hey, you know, you could be the guy that next year's, every team always needs pitching. You could be the guy on the trade block. They do have cool names out of all their prospects. Key Brian Hayes is a cool name.

O'Neill Cruz, two last names for both names. Rarely you see that. Under that, Swaggerty. Yeah, Travis Swaggerty. Travis Swaggerty. It's a badass name. Literally swag. And then the guy below him, Tanaj?

Thomas? Yeah, I'm not familiar with Tanaj. I'm all in, but... He's from the Bahamas. O'Neill Cruz is the real fun one. He's the 6-7 shortstop. You know, that's... We'll see.

We'll see if they give him some play at shortstop. It would be funny if Brian Hayes is so nasty that maybe they can tuck him in it short, and his value as a shortstop makes him that much more as a player. Supposedly the word is he can hit. It's just where do they play them. So you hope he gets the call at some point this year. They're expecting him to.

Swaggerty is maybe flip a coin. It might depend on injuries and how he's looking this year. I think those are the guys you're really excited to hopefully see this year. I think all the pitchers are really young, so you're just going to see a hodgepodge of dudes out there. but yeah who are we going to be talking about with Key Brian Hayes next year. Hopefully if you're a Pirates fan,

you're saying O'Neill Cruz is part of the conversation. We saw him at spring training, and it looked like that guy does not belong on a baseball field. He just looked different than everybody else. He's as skinny as a pencil and looks like a basketball player. Like he's tall, like that tall. So it was a lot of fun to see him out on the field. I'm curious, hey, man,

Baseball players come in all shapes and sizes, and we'll see if he can do it. I do want to say one thing to the Pirates fans, because I'm guessing that's who's listening to our TPP of the Pittsburgh Pirates is Pirates fans. I sent a text to Cole Tucker challenging him this year. I said, hey, I got a challenge for you. I talked to him at length about where he's at in his career,

because we had similar career trajectories. I got moved off of shortstop. He got moved off of shortstop. But by all accounts, they're going to give him a shortstop. shot this year. They said, the door is wide open, come win the job. I challenged him to go out there and change the narrative. I said, get out there, do your work in front of everybody. Give them no chance but to write about how much you're working and you're going to be impressed at how much better you get because, A, you're putting in the work and you're having people hold you accountable because

they're seeing you out there. He loved it. Says he gets started right away, needed to hear it. so if Cole Tucker goes out there, wins the shortstop job, becomes this awesome left side of the infield with Key Brian Hayes, Cole Tucker. I'm just saying I might have had a hand in that. Okay. Coach Trev.

How fun would that be, Key Brian and Cole on the left side of the infield? It would be a lot of fun. If you just some reason don't know, we all biasedly love Cole Tucker. But hey, former first round pick, switch hitter, hot, can play every position, but plays really well at shortstop,

so maybe just do that, but hot. I also want to see O'Neill Cruz. I don't know. Okay. We had some little factoid that editor, no, not editor. Researcher Max helped us out. You mentioned their payroll, Trev.

Polanco and Polanco and Felipe Vasquez, bad guy. Bad guy. They amount for 50% of the Pirates League leading low payroll. Those two guys, one's not on the team, because he's in jail. And the other guy, 50% of the payroll. Pretty insane.

It's nuts. Max's fun stat, we kind of already walked all over this one already, was about Key Brian Hayes, finished six and then an all rookie of the year last year. Crazy number, son of third baseman Charlie Hayes ranks as MLB's 37th prospect, and Cole Tucker gave him a bunch of love. So thank you to Max. Now, I just note on the prospect thing, I think they've actually slid him up the prospect.

rankings because they can and they've seen him play Major League Baseball now. So I've got Key Bryant at number 15 now by fan grants. Good job. So that's, you know, that's starting to get in rare air territory. I don't think it means anything, but yes. Not at all. Good job by. It's kind of the prospect people getting to cheat because they saw him hit 374 for 24.

Yeah, already made it to the bigs too. So it's kind of like, oh, yeah, that'll rank him higher. We've actually liked him more now. Job got a lot easier. All right. We don't have over-unders for these teams. Vegas has not given them out yet as we are recording this on February 5th. So I made it up and I did a pretty easy make-up job as I went to last year.

I found who was the 30th-ranked team. It was the Orioles last year. Vegas had the over-under at 56 and a half. And I think that's a good spot to land for the pirates. The only difference is the AL East was much better last year. And the Orioles were facing those guys a lot, whereas the Pirates may get some wins because the NL Central isn't amazing. So we all think they're going to lose 100 games. Well, she would be the third time they've done so since 2001, I believe.

You said yes to that, pre-show, Travis. I've changed my mind. I don't think because of what you just said, how the NL. Central is not very good this year. A couple teams getting a little bit better now. But you also... Sorry, go ahead. You can keep going. I have a counter.

I've been on teams that have lost 100 games. It's very hard to lose 100 games. Like, you have to be really, really bad. And if you go and have a decent month, you're not going to lose 100 games. So I'm going to take just right under. I'm going to change my answer. Okay. So you're going over 56 and a half.

Wins. Wins, yes. Yes. Yeah. I think they'll lose 100 games still, Trev, because I don't think they want to win. Like, I don't think the GM's going to be making moves to help them win games. Shelty is in his second year's manager, his first year managing a 162 season. He's been handed, you know, not the best thing to get handed.

So is he managing for his job? Like, he might just be a lame duck where I don't know if, like, the focus is going to be winning games. if there's a really close, if there's a pitcher that's being amazing, but, you know, reaching an innings limit, they're just going to shut them down. Same with everyone. Yeah, look, I mean, I get it that seems like they're just going to lose every game. Like they'll be a favorite in very few games this year.

But it's just a lot. It's very hard to sweep a team. You know, they will get swept a few times this year, but it's very hard to sweep a team. And I just think they might be on pace They might be on pace They might be on pace And then we're just going to see a little run out of them

And we're going to finish I'm going to give them I'm not going to do the math I'll just do the losses in my head right now I'm going to put them right around like 95 losses Oh wow yeah see I'm I'm still over a hundred losses I'm having trouble doing the mental math

Of what 56 and a half 104 wins What's 57? 67 wins I don't know No 57 95 Not a math pod 103.

57 and 103. Like, I think they could do that. I think this team can fight and I think. 57 and 103? What kind of map is this? Yeah. Yeah, that doesn't seem. 59 and 103, but whatever.

Oh, I did 162. Okay. I did 160. Not 160. So we're going to play 162 this year. Yeah, two games will get rained out and the pirates won't even care to make them up. How about this? I'll do a cop out.

I think 57 and however. many losses that is. I do think towards the end of this baseball season, you're going to see pitchers that shouldn't be on the field. You'll see some teams that don't care again. And I think I'm going actually the other way with Shelty is that this is his second year. So winning will be kind of a big thing for them. So on the days they are winning, you know, they're going to go for it. So just over, 57 wins. So you guys are both taking the over. I am taking the under. You say that they're going to get to a point where they're throwing pitchers that shouldn't be there. They're starting

the season with almost five pitchers that shouldn't be there. That's the other teams catching up to them, though. That's what I'm saying. That's not fair. I mean, look, I get what you're saying. They're not going to compare to some other rotations, but these guys deserve to be there. They're still majorly players.

And they have egos, and they want to win. No matter how much the organization... Sometimes you have to be honest, you tell me I don't know how many of their pitchers. Crack other rotations It all depends on the teams And you know, not the Stephen Brawl After what he did last year

He'd be on a lot of teams I think Chad Cool is fine He would be on some Matt team But that's what I'm saying Winning team In this season you're going to see A lot of other guys Getting innings for every other team

You could spin the argument either way I see what you're saying But can also spend the other I've got them half a game over I'm taking the under we'll see what the real one I think it's going to get sloppy sloppy sloppy sloppy in Pittsburgh

I don't think I think Sheltie's going to be the only one interested in winning come September I think that the players are going to be like you know during the game they're going to try their hardest but I don't know if there's going to be a lot of like guts and grind it's going to be brilliant

I'm rooting for the pirates so bad now I want them to prove I prove you guys wrong remember the Orioles kind of started out hot last year I'd like them to be good. I said that before the show. I said, this sucks. They're a storied franchise. Pittsburgh has a great ballpark and great fans.

Like, this sucks. But it's in their best interest to be absolutely horrible. The front office is doing everything they can. So there you go. That's the Pirates. Thanks for tuning in. We'll be back tomorrow with another one. And then the next day with another one and the next day with another one.

But sometimes we'll do our regular old big episodes in between as well. So that's the schedule. Enjoy it. I think this one will. literally tomorrow is not. Tomorrow is may not one. Again, we're a month out from the beach jump. See ya.

57 and 105, baby.