Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 286 | Seattle Mariners | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: February 27, 2021

The Talkin' Baseball community voted the Seattle Mariners as baseball's #23 team. Jomboy, Jake, & Plouffe preview their 2021 campaign! Presented by DraftKings Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We're back with another team profile and projection. And this time it is the Seattle Mariners. Blake's now doesn't play for him, but he's from the region. Jake, your thoughts? Nice. Trev? I talked to Blake last night. Awesome.

This is Talking Baseball presented by Draft King's Team Profile and Projections. It's an episode a day every day until opening days, the promise we made to you. and we roll on BPD. Someone did tell me that the date you have on the screen for all these is 2020 and not 2021. Wow. Which I was going to tell you earlier. I just realized right now. I don't care.

But. I just saw it. It's right in front of race. I don't care. Jay, can you tell us what these Mariners did? Last year they finished 27 and 33. Yeah.

Which would be a 73 and 89 pace. Did they get better? Did they get worse? What's going on? Jim. This is. an interesting one because I think they got better. The guys they lost, D Strange Gordon, who, you know, a lot of fans are familiar with D. He's not doing some of his big output years

that he did back in the day. Heronoh, he left Phil Berv and Tim Lovs. I mean, yeah, but they brought in a couple guys. They brought in James Paxton returns to Seattle. He should be the one or the two in that rotation with Marco Gonzalez. They brought in Raphael. Montero, who should be their closer. Ken Giles signed, he'll be out all of this season. Chris Flexing comes over from the KBO. Kenyon Middleton, excuse me, comes up from LAA, and Robert Dugger, barely knower.

So they added a lot of pitching, which I think was already this Mariners strength, and they didn't lose too much. So I don't know, the Mariners kind of added some stuff, Trev. But what's going on with the lineup, Big Daddy? I'll tell you guys through the lineup. And again, this is a fangrass projected lineup. You guys know your team better than we do,

so go ahead and shout in the comments if we get some of this wrong. Catcher, Luis Torrens, back, first base, Evan White, kind of a bopper there. Second base, Dylan Moore, shortstop. My guy, J.P. Crawford, who can pick it. Third base, the big baby, Kyle Seeger, and I mean that in a very, very nice way.

I love Kyle Seeger. Left field, hose. a, oh man, marmalayos. Bang. Nailed it. Crushed it? Yeah. Center field. I own many of this guy's baseball card. Kyle Lewis, he's a stud, had a great year last year.

Rightfield, one of my buddies, Mitch Hanninger and D.H. Thai France. Again, there could be some moving pieces, but this is what Fangraphs has projected for 2021. Jim, can you tell us about the rotation, please? A lot of people that Mariners fans already. know. Marco Gonzalez. James Paxton, Big Maple, back on the bump. Justice Sheffield, kind of had a nice season last year.

Big changes were made and they worked out. You say Cacucci. Is his funky business coming up? We'll talk about that. Justin Dunn. Nick Margevicious. Ooh. Chris Flexon might get in the mix. They got Rafael Montero in the pen with Kendall Graveman.

How do you say the Middleton? I think it's Keenan because the Y becomes. before the end. Kenan Middleton. That's how you get out of not mispronouncing a name. You just say with a dumb accent. Okay. And also Anthony Missilewilths.

That's the pitchers. Huge. Right away, before we get into the team, because we might change our opinions by the end, any way that this team can finish third in the division. Do you guys believe that this team could maybe finish third in the A.O. West? Yes.

Jake's a yes. Treves a yes. I'm also a yes. Okay. Mariners pod. This might be the first team where we had the ceiling being third place in the division that we've done here. I don't know. Diamondbacks, they kind of didn't matter in the nice way.

And royals were kind of borderline. They needed a lot to go right. Yeah. Mariners still are waiting on a lot of prospects. That's like still the game there. I like a lot of their moves. Justice Sheffield had a, I don't know if the word breakouts right. But there was a tangible change where he threw his four-seam fastball like 50% of the time.

It got rocked. So they said, hey, maybe don't throw it anymore. He scrapped it completely last year, started throwing a two-seam, a sinker, and had really good results. So I think there's a little hope for Justice Sheffield. There's hope that James Paxton can come return to form. And if they're good enough, stick it out to for a wild card race. If they need to move them at the deadline, get more prospects. So I think there's, you know, if we're being a team that we're doing this early on,

there's some hope and positivity in Marinerland. Yeah, and I think low-key, because we kind of said that about the Royals as well. Like their fan base was positive. Debacks, we probably could have said that, but we just don't know enough about them. So DeBax fans reach out still. And good for Blake Snell from being from the Pacific Northwest, by the way. Got involved early with this. No, man.

His brother is also from the same exact area of him. We look at teams and it's kind of what do you do, right? And these Mariners, it looks like they can pitch a little bit. Marco Gonzalez has been doing it for a little while now, and he's a solid piece. James Paxton returns home. The question with him is always health. And if he's healthy, I expect him to be good there. And yeah, I mean, flip a coin.

If the Mariners are involved in stuff, let it ride, let these young guys get some momentum, or flip him. And I think we could be saying exciting stuff about the 20s. 2022 Mariners. They could make a significant jump with a couple of free agents and a couple of these young guys kicking in. Usai Kikuchi. He can spin the ball, apparently. Some of the baseball, Savant stuff, loves him. But when he gets hit, he gets rocked. So we'll see what comes there. But yeah, they got young arms. Their bullpen, I specifically remember last year saying, oh, my God, like, this is going to be the worst bullpen in baseball. Now at least they've got a couple guys they can buy into.

and if they have a couple young bats figured out, I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking about the Mariners next year kind of the way we talked about the Blue Jays and looking to make a big splash and free agency next year. To add to all the guys. Yeah. Wow. Okay.

I don't hate that. I don't hate that. Trev, what do you see? I like their lineup. They need a few things to go right for them to be productive enough to maybe hit that third place ceiling. Are we going to give them a ceiling of third place in the AOS? because I don't think second

second place is there for them. No, ceiling's third. Yeah. Ceilings third, but you know, a guy like Evan White, for instance, you know, he signs that contract before he even steps into it on a big league field, didn't have a good year last year? Can he get something right? Can he get right for them?

Kyle Seeger, the model of consistency. I mean, that's a guy, any young ballplayers, look him up, you know, look at what he does year in and year out. So he's going to be there. Kyle Lewis wins the rookie of the year last year he's a stud I expect him to continue to do what he's been doing

and a guy like Mitch Hanager who I mentioned is my buddy he's been hurt for a couple years they need to get him back and healthy on the field you know a couple of that with some good defense and like you guys saying the starting pitchings there they have all those lefties which is a little strange for me but I can see a world where this team is

competitive and outplays their projection I'm lost I agree with everything you guys are saying, I'm lost and you say Kukuchi's contract situation. Sure. It's the trickiest contract. I think MLB has currently. So I was trying to remember it because this is technically a walk year for Kikuchi. But they have like four

or the Mariners can lock him up for another four years, something like that. Like their team option is like a four year option. But he could be a trade piece as well if he pitch as well, or he's kind of pitching for his future as an American League baseball player because last year was rough. So I'm kind of interested in tracking Cacucci's 20-21 more than other people? Yeah, I mean, it's a big number. I mean, it's 17 mil per year essentially, 17-16 per mill after that. So, I mean, he would have to be good. I mean, he's got a career 539 ERA just because

he can spin it a little bit. So you think it's a walkie? He had a good FIP last year. He would really have to take a leap. So if the Mariners are out of it, they could be trading Paxon and Kikuchi if those guys are pitching well. Sure. Or if someone just needs bullets, which I think a lot of teams are going to need this year. You think Kyle Seeger would get moved?

Man, I'm a big Kyle Seeger guy, Treve. I mean, again, you played MLB third base, so you can speak a little better on third base. But I'm going to put down the Yankees a little bit for you, because I know you like that. Like if this dude had played his career for the Yankees and did what he's done at third base, like Yankee fans would be screaming from the ceilins about how good Kyle Seeger is. So I'm a Seeger fan.

There was a moment there where his contract looked bad because he had one down year and he was still getting a little bit of money. But Kyle Seeger is going to be Kyle Seeger. He's going to pick it. He's going to be a nice lefty bat for you. And if there is a year they move on and maybe they get a couple prospects and maybe it's moving on to the future of the Seattle Mariners, I'd be happy with that.

Or if we're talking about a hopeful Seattle Mariners next year, I'd love if Kyle Seeger hung around for them to compete to get back into the playoffs for the first time since, isn't it like 01 or something crazy? Isn't it the longest drought in baseball? I believe it is. Is it? Producer BPD?

Is it 01? Did you look this up beforehand? I didn't look it up beforehand. I was I was starting to cross wires at the Pirates episode because they haven't won the division in my life but they made the playoffs at this wild crime.

The Mariners active postseason drought has had 19 years. So you had it right. So I was all around it. Believe in yourself next time. Never. I love the Yankee Seeger talk. It's true.

He does get lost in the Pacific Northwest. He signed the seven-year, 100-mill deal. And that was early on. You know, the American. saw something in him and he's given them every bit of that money back. You know, he's as consistent as consistent gets, like you said, he had one down year. What year was that?

2018, but every other year he's just been Kyle Seeger. And it's actually shocking to me when I look at his page that he's only made one all-star game and one gold glove. That just goes to show you how good the third base position has been in the American League for so long. You know, he's a guy that, I mean, he's already amassed 33. career war and when you go see him play you're like okay i get it i get it man i really do the way he comes in on balls the way he moves laterally um and the way he puts up professional at bats and the

guy just he just goes and does it and i'll tell you what another thing dodgers fans be happy that kyle seger was born because he made kori seger who he is wow older brother like that you're trying to keep up with that older brother who's as good as kyle is it's going to make you good you give a lot of credit to your older brother? Of course. All I did was try to keep up with him in my life. So you hold that over ahead? Go ahead and thank Kyle.

But I love him and I am, the more and more I look at this Mariners team. I'm like, hey, it's pretty exciting. Like, J.P. Crawford, and he got a lot of love last year because he made some crazy highlight plays. Like he can really, really pick it. It's also a really good dude. I'd like to see him, you know, kind of figure out the bat a little bit more.

he has a good swing, can do it. So I'm rooting for JP this year. I think everyone should be on the lookout for him too. Huge. What's 22 divided by 8? I'm a afterthought from the Phillies. What's your question? 22 divided by 8.

It's like 2 and 3 quarters. Sure. Is that right? Yeah, the room's nodding. Why did you ask that question? Because when you said Seeger, if he was a Yankee, he'd be so, you know, he'd be the beloved. people would shouting him out more.

And I was like, oh, I wonder how many more home runs he'd average a year if his home stadium was Yankee Stadium, which is a new game I've been playing a lot. And it would, I just looked at all of his doubles, triples, and outs that were hit over 300 feet to right field in home games from 2012 to 2019. And it was 22 home runs if his home stadium was Yankee Stadium and not whatever they're calling Safeco these days, which would be two more home runs a year. which isn't as big of a jump as I thought it was going to be. Guys already got over 200 home runs. Playing in Seattle, it's an impressive feat. Yeah, I mean, career OPS Plus 114. It is interesting.

He's only got the one kind of monster year, 859 OPS, 30 homers. And, you know, you say monster year and you compare it to some other guys. But to do it at third base, hitting lefty, you know, classic, really nice MLB career. Either get the Mariners good for his final years or trade them to a good team. What else are we looking for out of this team?

I mean, do we think that dudes are going to get the call this year? Everyone's on Kellanick, the dude that came over in the Mets trade for Edwin Diaz. People were comparing him to Trouton stuff. He's the number six overall prospect right now. He's supposed to get the call this year. Taylor Trammell, the guy that got moved around, I think, twice. It was Reds to Padres and then Padres to Mariners. And it looks like Logan Gilbert, who, I'm going to.

going to be honest with you. I don't have the scouting report, but he's ranked 39th overall. So you know nothing of Logan Gilbert. You never heard of him. I'm not about Logan Gilbert guy. Oh my God. He's got great hair. More of a Gilbert Godfried. What? He's from Florida, which is like Florida. Exact opposite corners of the U.S. Him and Blake's now just switching areas. Yeah. Always. I can't stop it. So I don't know. I think this is fun for Mariners fans. A baseball season can do, can go two different ways pretty quickly. If they can pick up some momentum, like, this could be a fun Mariners year. Call up some guys. Be that team that's outside of from the wild card, and we're always like, you know, if the Mariners get hot, they're five games out. They got to jump six

teams. I think they can be in that spot or, you know, a couple injuries, baseball catches up with you. They need a little something with the bats. I got a question for Jake. Logan Gilbert, Stetson College. Stetson, all right. Two. 0-2-ERA. Nice. In college? Yeah, with 12 games started. How do you not know about this guy? I don't know.

Jake, tell me about Julio Rodriguez, because I know Kellanick. He's the dude. He's the guy that people want to have baseball cards of. They love this guy. But Fangrass has Julio ranked above him? Is this, is that accurate? He's the guy, man. He's younger, though.

If you, uh, you, you hear a Mariners fan talk. Like, Kellanick was the guy. and then this dude kind of popped up. And he's been his short experience in the minors, he's been a stud. But yeah, man, like he's, you know, Trev, you went through your old scouting report the other day that sounded like someone ogling, you know, a weird 18-year-old male model or something. 70 power. They don't just give that out.

You got to tell people what you just said because I think, I don't think people know what your reference. They know. Okay. They know. Trevor dug up his old scouting report the other day, and it was like wiry, nice hips or something. It was... Slender, slender frame, powerful hits. It's a weird sport.

It's a weird sport. I mean, Julio Rodriguez, he's 20 years old, 6.3.180. He's supposed to have real power. That's getting me going. He's not supposed to be on the path this year, potentially next year. Again, that's, I kind of like the Blue Jay's best case situation where, like, the Mariners, you know, they can pack that house. And, you know, that team will rally around a sports team. So if they can make a big splash and free agency next year, I think that's when things get fun.

So best case, the Mariners are competitive this year. Good games to watch for their fans. They're just out of wild card race so they feel free to trade the people that are performing well. to get returns next year they call up some dudes, they sprinkle in some more vets, and they go after the wild card next year. Jake, is that what you were saying? Yeah, I'm in on it.

I like that. I like that team that hovers for a little bit, and then they just drop out and they trade. By trade deadline, you want to be trading. You do want them to trade. Yeah. You do, it is in their best interest. I mean, what?

I mean, I know Trev has this off the top of his head, but I was going to see what salary they have on the books going forward. You don't know? They got Marco Gonzalez. He's got like three more years of money. Evan White has four more years of money. Back at load. Evan White's making eight mill in 2025.

I mean, they can essentially clear the books for next year. Yeah, you'd have Giles is on there. Flexens is on there. Seeger's club option next year. So we'll see what's going on. But the Kikuchi option, like they can have a bunch of young talent, clear the books. I think this is the new MLB formula. Who do you think is going to lead the team in triples?

Oh, you've got to lean Lewis, right? Yeah, I think so. Well, there he is, okay. And we haven't talked once about Shed Long. Shed long, money long. And there we go. Now we've talked about it. What's Max's Fun stat for the Mariners?

Max's Fun stat. It's an Evan White stat. It says first baseman Evan White with it 52.6% of the 96 curb balls he saw in 2020, which was the third highest rate in all of MLB against kerbos, only behind Mondesie and Yelly. Hey. But, but I think this is the fun part because that wasn't very fun.

When he did make contact, 63.6 of the curbles he made contact with, sorry, were hard hit. The third highest rate in all baseball against curbles, only behind Vlad Jr. and Mike Trout and just ahead of Jose Abraeu. To me, that's a fun stat. If I'm here, if I'm here and telling him, you my interpretation of that, that tells me that Evan White swings at curveballs very hard with his eyes closed. I think you just stop at it very hard.

Just a clear miss or clear hit. No how, when I describe... Does he have a really quick swing? Because that's what we were told about Clint Fraser, because his bat is so quick through the zone. When he misses breaking pitches, he misses them completely and rarely fouls them down or up. Weak contact. Rarely has weak conduct

because he's got a quick swing. What's Evan White's swing path? Who's got Evan White's swing speed? Who told you that? I'm just being honest. The head of the talking Yanks Analytics. Analytics department. There's some science

behind them. Is this thing just so much faster than everybody else's? I just have a hard time. Wait, have you not seen Clint Fraser swing? Of course I have. It is faster than it is one of the fastest swings in MLB. Okay, do the other guys who have a fast swing have the same problem? That's what we were told. We're now currently inquiring about that, but we're watching a video of a foul ball.

It was a swing. No, that was a long swing. It was a swing. Over under. Let's close this out. Trevor's Over Under. Draft Kings has the Over Under, and we have the Offer Kings over under. And we have the official draft Kings over-unders now at 72 and a half games.

It's tough when you give him the ceiling of third place. and then you start to think about over under 72 and a half. Obviously they'd have to be over 72 and a half to have that ceiling. Rangers stink. The Rangers stink. Rangers stink. The A's are looking better every day. Yeah, but I don't think the A's are going to like train roll.

You know, it's not like it's going to be like 18 to one series or 15 to 3 series. I see them being competitive. The Angels, I can see them being a little competitive. Houston's going to be Houston. Losing the season series, but not. being terrible. But then they also get to play the Rockies, the Diamondbacks, and the Giants. 72 and a half. I'll go the over. I was going to go a hopeful over. I think they can pitch a little bit. There'll be some excitement. I'm just trying to win Mariners fans. You know Seattle has rowdy fans

and they've been cooped up all year. So once the Mariners fans get to that ballpark, they're going to be screaming. They do have rowdy fans? They're not that rowdy fans. Seattle. Oh, you're talking about the football fans. Which football. I mean, you got... No offense, you guys. I think a lot of those fans are the same fans. They just have a...

Jake's trying to rile me up and I won't do it. They have a team that hasn't gone to the playoffs in 19 years. I think Seattle has a fan base that would love to get rowdy for their Mariners. Because they're Sounders fans. They're Seahawks fans. They're fans of their fans. I was a former Major League Baseball. Jake's trying to rile me up and I'm not doing it.

Seattle Seahawks fans are losers and losers and... too rowdy at Mariners game. Look at Jake. I didn't make you say that. Their number one jersey is a 12th man jersey. They buy jerseys of themselves. It's the most embarrassing thing going in all the sports. That's not embarrassing. Trev, it's so embarrassing.

Trev's a Seahawks fan. It's not embarrassing to me. Do the Mariners have 12th fans jerseys? Because that's what we need. That would be a 10th man. You'd be 12th, why not? Why not? I mean, at one point, at one point, Seattle had, you know,

the best home field advantage at their football stadium. That's why they got 12. Because they consider the clapping. Literally part of the team when you can cause the other team to get penalties. Yes. How was that not part of the game, Jimmy? When you can cause the other team to get penalties, you're part of the game.

Fantastic. So, there you go. But most fans don't translate to Mariners games. When you say one, two, three, everybody clap. And then you're like, we just broke the sound record. Our fans are so loud. He didn't. You said one, two, three, clap.

Wasn't natural clap in? When Marshawn Lynch ran for a touchdown and they literally had... Marshawn Lynch is the coolest ever and I like it. I have nothing against the Seahawk players. Very fun team. The fans. Okay, I'm talking about the fans. This happens every time.

Look what Jake did. Get out of here. We're ending the show. Don't buy a 12-man jersey. You can end the show until I give my prediction. I'm going to say, you guys both went over, 72 and a half. I was trying to win Seattle fans over because I always shit on this. I'm taking the under now.

Fuck it. What are you taking, Trev? Under. I think the Seattle fans would love to be loud if they had a playoff team, because that's what the Seahawks have been. The Mariners, let's get good. Let's go. Thanks.

Thanks, guys. See you tomorrow. Don't buy a 12th man shirt. Folkman Mariners. Don't buy a shirt for yourself. It's so weird.