Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 309 | New York Mets | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: March 22, 2021

You guys ranked the New York Mets the sixth-best team in MLB! Jomboy, Jake, & Plouffe are previewing their 2021 season Presented by DraftKings Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Now it's time to talk about the Mets. Welcome to another team profile and projection on talking baseball, brought to you by Draft Kings. My name's Jimmy. This Jake. Trevor's here. BBD's here. The Mets. The amazing Mets.

What an offseason they had, Jake. Truly, one of the biggest, most impactful off seasons a team has had in probably 40. years, 20 years. The Will Ponds are gone, and who else is gone, and who else is coming? Jim, you got to believe. That's what they say, and man, they lost a lot of guys that I

can't even paint the whole story. I'll tell this part of the story. I'm Ed Rosario and Andres Jimenez out of town. You saw them playing some middle infield. We'll circle back on that in a minute. Stephen Matt's. They loved him for a while. He's gone. Justin Wilson,

the veteran reliever. Wilson Ramos. Oh, thick king. He's out of town. Michael Walker. Ross Marreras. Todd Frazier, Brad Brock, Jared Hughes, Rick Purcello, Eduardo Nunez, Robinson, Torinos.

Joina Cespitus. That era ends. And Renee Rivera, that's a lot of Major League guys, but I'll tell you what, they brought in a lot of Major League guys. How about Frankie Lindor, the all-world shortstop, the new pride of the Mets and the who they got in that trade?

They also got Cookies Carrasco. just announced he'll start the season on the IL, but hey, weird year, you're going to need innings wherever, he'll be back. How about James McCann? Early signing in this free agency, the second best catcher on the market. It's going to be interesting to see his output this year. Taiwan Walker late. There's some more bullets for you.

Trevor May, Trev's guy, Joey Lucchese, my Paizan, he'll be twirling innings. Kevin Pilar, Albert Armora, Yamamoto, Aaron Loop. Is he playoff, Aaron Loop? Martinez, he's got a knee thing, he'll be out for a little bit. Clea Lee in the minor league, Sean Rudolfi, Tarpley, a couple other guys. Man, the Mets starts with Lendor. It starts with Lendor, and they might start out their lineup with Lendor, Trev.

I mentioned before we went on air that I was going to be pretty mean to this team. And now that I've gotten to the lineup, I can't be mean to this team. Oh, my God. I walked it back as soon as I went down one through nine for these guys. It's a damn good lineup. You mentioned James McCann. He comes in. He kind of settles that position for them.

With the backstop, he's got it with the leadership skills. The guy can hit a little bit too, though. Don't forget about that. Then we got Pete Alonzo at first, Jeff McNeil at second. Francisco Lind Dorr bringing his talents to, what is it, flushings? Flushing. Queens? Flushing.

Singular. Whatever. He's bringing his talent to the Mets. There you go. How about that? Huge. Third base, JD Davis, left field, Dominic Smith, who broke out last year.

Had a decent 2019, but really did it in 2020. Center field, Brandon Nimmo and right field Michael Conforto. As you go down this lineup, there ain't many holes in it, Jim. But what about that pitching stuff? Well, they got probably the best pitcher in all of baseball leading the way. Jacob de Grom. I said probably there, because I think some people will fight you. me personally, I think he's the best pitcher in baseball,

and it's not close. Jacob de Grom is the ace. And then Stroman's the number two. Cookie Carasco's hurt now. He's going to start on the IL. Thor, Noah Sindegard, starting on the IEL, and it gets, you know, they picked up depth. They have Taiwan Walker, you know,

David Peterson slotted in here. Luchesse. Likese. How do you say it? I think it's L'Ais. Lkeesi. So that's the rotation. which, you know, if you have Cookie Carasco and Sindegard, it's really, really good. And maybe they will get there at the back end of the season.

And then it'd be really, really good. Bullpen. This has been the nightmare for the Mets for a while now. They did a lot to short their bullpen. Diaz is returning. They brought over Trevor May. Castro's there. Patancis they brought over.

I mean, both those guys came last year. Familia. He's still around. Loop. They brought him over. in the World Series last year, getting outs. Who's Jacob Barnes? Barnes, the old,

claimed him on waivers, and he looks to be in their bullpen. This team's pretty good, pretty good. I think the rotation, with Carrasco out, I think my brain changed on the rotation, a decent amount, because with Carasco out,

you could be very, with Carasco in, you could be very glass half empty. half full and saying like, well, Noah's going to come back and fill this baby up. And we got DeGrom, Syngard, Carrasco, Stroman. That's a hell of a one through four. And now if Carasco's out and Thor's out, then, you know, you really have DeGrom and Stroman. And Stroman looks good in spring.

And no one's more confident in themselves. But he still has to kind of prove that he's the number two for a contending team in a way. I think that's his mission. the Carrasco thing just kind of kind of changed my mind on their starting rotation a little bit. They got depth, which is really good. They brought in Walker and Lucchese, and if they didn't make those depth moves, it'd look even uglier. But, yeah, that changes the way I think about it. It goes from half full to half empty, my brain.

Luckily for Carasco, it's just a hamstring strain. Yeah. So I think he'll be fine. He'll be back in the rotation. I think by May he could be back. That'd be fine. I think earlier than that. I mean, give these guys a couple weeks with the treatment they do now.

You know, if they want to be really careful of him and make him go throw some minor league endings, which they might do, then, yeah, we're looking at late April or early May. Noah is kind of the wild card here. I think they go as far as, like, he'll let them go. He comes back, and we'll just say that Stroman, Cookie Carasco, and Jacob deGrom are doing their things. If Thor comes back from T.J.,

and this is a big if, because it's hard to come back, that first, especially that first year, if he comes back and can be a dominant pitcher like he has been, then we're like, this is a, this is a real deal, pitching staff, ball club, the ceilings, the World Series, all that stuff. Until I see that, I can't, I can't put my, I can't put them in the same tier as the teams that we're going to do above them. Well, let's, I said I was going to mean to them and that's kind of, that's as mean as I'm going to get it. Well, let's, because I, I think the pitching really is the conversation, and I say that in a good way for the hitting, because they're hitting, man, you can get lost in that pretty quick. So here's what I'll say.

I'm not too worried about the Carasco injury. Like I said, I think teams are going to be juggling innings all year, so it not being a serious injury. I think you almost have to shrug it and be like, okay, well, you know, we lost 25 innings in April. Who's going to replace them? Okay, Lucchese, you're up. I think teams are going to be playing that game all year. Seth Lugo's hurt in their pin. He's a really important part for them. He's supposed to start throwing around opening day. So hopefully that'll start the bodies coming in for them

and they don't have more injuries. You do start getting nervous when they start to add up. And yeah, it's come the end of the year. I mean, are we looking at Jacob de Grom, Noah Cindergarde, and, you know, Carrasco slash Stroman as your 1-2-3, whoever had the better year? Because, yeah, I mean, that's a 1-2-3. And you guys know I've kind of been given my speech on this before.

I'm in on Taiwan Walker. This guy's 28 and played a lot of major league innings. And we interviewed him on here and he's starting to get more into the analytics. And like, I just think with that experience and what he now knows about himself, a guy who's already had a solid big league career, don't be shocked if he has a really nice year for them. So in the bullpen has always been kind of as Metsy as a Getsy. I like the talent down there. where we now biasly love Trevor May, but he's a guy the analytics and a lot of other things like

Edwin Diaz was back to being lights out last year, so hopefully he gets off to a good start, and you can just call, you know, 2019, just a no-good, very bad year. And some heartstrings tied to Batances and Familia Loop Castro. Hopefully you could get a couple of those guys to have nice year. But all the pieces are there. And then, man, it's how much does that give? of you are do we talk about them as elite pitching staff, a good pitching staff, or an okay pitching staff?

Compared to the rest of the league still. Above average. Top five easily. Pitching staff as a whole. A baseball season's tough. Like, let's see how the injuries play out and stuff. There's very good chance they could be a top five. Yeah.

Top tier pitching. And I think that brings us to the hitting. And Trev, I love what you said about McCann and Gialito, first thing after his no-no gave him love. And hey, if you're getting White Sox James McCann, holy smokes. He's at 800 OPS over a little over a full Major League season there in the past two years. Detroit, James McCann, couldn't really hit. So it's going to be interesting to see what kind of start he gets off to.

Because, you know, they gave him a little bit of a bag. They're expecting him to hit a little bit. And, man, up and down this lineup, there's dudes. and I think a lot of time we get caught up in culture, and we did this last year with the Mets. We were saying if their team name wasn't called the Mets, we'd have higher expectations for them. If there's a guy that can kind of break the mold for you

and get rid of all of that, it's Frankie Lindor with the smile, with the glove switch hitting in the middle of that lineup. You know, Nimmo gets on. Conforto's kind of underrated at this point. Alonzo's been a monster. Dom Smith was kind of a breakout guy. Jeff McNeill, all he does. his hits. J.D. Davis, like, that dude hits too. He's got an 800 OPS. So this lineup is so very

real that, man, if it, I'll say, if all of this comes together when we start talking about best cases, I mean, the Mets best case is up there with a lot of, you know, the top couple teams in the league. It has been for a little bit. That's the weird part. I mean, in 2019, the Mets had de Grom, Sindegard, Wheeler, Matt's who wasn't, he kind of showed himself that year, make 30 starts each.

That was like the dream for them. They traded for Stroman to come over, and their lineup, eight of their hitters were above average, according to OPS Plus. It was the bullpen that doomed him in. But like, they've had talent.

It was always that storyline of like, how are the Mets going to beat themselves? And you're hoping with new ownership and Lendor and actually a good bullpen or at least on paper they like did a lot to correct this bullpen that it all comes together and there's some fun baseball happening in queens but the lineup won't be a problem and those guys hit they last year in the short season they had eight guys with a above average ops plus so eight eight eight of their nine hitters were above average i mean dom smith had a 169 ops plus confordo did his thing he had a four

12 on base percentage. Brandon Nimmo at a 400 on base percentage. Like they were like top five in offense, a lot of offensive categories, right? So the lineup, it's sneaky. I don't think, um, besides Alonzo, I don't think they have many household names yet.

Like McNeil, I don't think has taken the rest of the baseball world by storm where they're like, oh yeah, that dude's good. But when you look at it, you're like, oh, yeah, that dude's fucking good. So, yeah, Lindor and Alonzo for, Oh, Lindor.

I was looking at the 19 roster who he was out there. Obviously Lindor. Lindor, they said they're going to slot him in at the two-hole because he's a switch hitter. Yeah, Trev, I guess you're, you, I heard you played Major League Baseball. When you look at this lineup, what's your kind of composition?

Because I mentally said Lindor first to start this all out because he did that for a lot of the Cleveland teams. Here they kind of got him two-hole. Do you really care? I know it gets overblown in a lot of these conversations, but there's a lot of ways you could juggle it. Yeah, I don't know. man. I think I always liked having a set lineup and let the guys know where they're going to hit.

It doesn't happen much anymore. And I like having your best hitter three. But a lot of times that doesn't happen anymore. I think that two-hole you a lot of times you slot your best hitter in. That's a different game than I came up in. But I mean, you could really slice this bad boy up anyway. This is a great lineup. This is what I'm most excited for on this team. And obviously Jacob de Grom is Jacob de Grom. I think we have this team is exactly where they need to be. They're not at the top tier for me. Like there's a clear top tier of teams and they are not in it. And they need some things to go really, really right to break through and get to that tier.

Like right now if you ask me what are the World Series chances for this team? I'd say it's not great. And I don't know what Pocoda hasn't ranked as and what chances they've given them. But I just, man, I love the lineup, and that's kind of, and I love Jacob de Grom. And I think the rest of the team is pretty damn good, but I just can't, in my mind, I can't see them breaking through that. And I know they got Lindor. I don't know, man. My mind spinning with this team a lot. I think that there is talent, but I just don't think it's enough to break through. I mean, you're talking Braves, Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, I just don't think they, even the, even the one,

White Sox. I don't think they're on the same tier as those teams. Yeah. Hopefully they'll prove me wrong. The NLEs, man. I mean, that's kind of the thing that's overlooming this whole thing. The Braves have been dominant and they haven't gotten worse. Like their young guys are getting older. They've added some bodies.

I mean, the Phillies hired Dumbrowski and they've made their moves. This division is going to be brutal. And it's the thing that scares you with the Mets because, like Jim said, you know, they had a team with starting pitching and hitting as recently as, you know, 2019, and it got them to 86 and 76, which got them? Nope. Third place in the division. Third place.

So that's the fear factor. I mean, it is crazy looking back that Brody Van Wagonin was the gym. Mickey Callaway was the manager of that Mets team. So hopefully we talked about energy being a real thing. Hopefully we've got some better energy in there now. And hey, Frankie Lindor, man. I think the other thing when you reference those old Mets team, I was thinking about the bullpen being a disaster and the defense, man.

That defense was tough. You got McCann and Lendor helping out up the middle now. You know, Frankie Linder is a guy who can change games with his glove. So I think you're hoping for that as Mets fans too. And yeah, the question really ties into when we talk about these tough divisions is, you know, can the Mets take down the Braves? And it is tough to picture. down the Phillies.

Yeah. I'm sorry. I know that you guys don't feel the same way about the Phillies as I do. I think those two teams are pretty evenly. The Nats deserve love too. I mean,

there's a world where the Nats click. Fish with arms, dude, that division. What the hell happened to Sindergarten in 2019? Shindersvart. Mets fans, tell me. I mean, you guys, we forgot to say this at opening.

Mets fans, you know much more about your team than we do. Yeah. We're doing this. We're learning about it as we go. Syngard, I mean, what are those numbers in 2019?

they're bad. It looks like his pitch mix, he started throwing a four-seem fastball just as much as he threw his two-seam fastball, and both those pitches got rocked. So maybe when he's healthy, he goes back to being a three-pitch pitcher, not so much a two-pitch pitcher.

Yeah. I think it's... I don't know, man. I'm looking at the numbers, and yeah, he gave up a lot of runs, but the whip is still there, and that's comparable to other seasons. I'm a Thor fan

I'm a Thor fan but it's really tough to come back that first go around when you come back from Tommy John you don't trust your stuff dude you just don't trust your stuff so if Mets fans are thinking Thor's going to come back and he's going to be like a guy guy

I just don't it's not going to happen man I've been preaching from that anomaly that comes back I've been preaching from that same gospel about Severino and the Yankees so I agree with you never put expectations on guys that are coming back from Tommy John. It's just a fool's errands. The following year, sure. Yes, but the first year back.

Yes, the first year back. I'd never, never expect that. Like, I've been saying this about Severino. I don't expect him to be a guy in the playoffs for the Yankees. I think Mets fans should be looking at Thor the same way. But that's just, that's how I always think about Tommy John guys. Like, give them, give them the rehab year. They'll get starts in August and September, but don't expect them to be carrying you.

Well, maybe. We'll see. And Thor's already throwing. I mean, I'm more of a case-by-case basis. I don't like lumping these guys. These guys are different athletes. Let's see what you got. I mean, if you're going to bet on an athlete that could do it,

I mean, Cindergards already throwing the pill hard. He's ready. So let's see what he's got. If anything, I'd say that leans more towards injury than fresh. But, hey, that guy's a freak. So it's, you can't pencil them in. It's for me, it's let's see what you got, kid. You know, no expectations, but, you know, you want to be Noah Cindergarde.

Let's see it. So, hey, Trev, how much do you think Pete Alonzo's saving his numbers in the last two days of the season changes his mind and confidence at all? Like you say when you look up at the scoreboard and you see those numbers, on September 24th, he had a 211 batting average, a 307 on base percentage, and a 739 OPS. He played three more games in two days. And in those two days on September 26 and September 27th, he raised all of his numbers to a 231 batting average, a 326 on base percentage, a 490 slugging,

and an 817. And just three games. That's the shortened season for you. But I mean, his final numbers look pretty good. and if they just sat him, if the manager's like, you know what, you've had a rough season. Obviously, this isn't what we wanted.

Let's just get you some rest before we get out. And he didn't play those last two days. We'd be looking at the numbers being like, man, Alonzo had a rough year. In those last three games, what did he, he went six for nine with three homers. Ooh. It's a good weekend.

And that short season, obviously changed all the numbers, like you said. It's, it is. I mean, politically driven people will say no doesn't matter like look at his exit velocity was the same his babbip was way down last year his walks and k percentage were the exact same but but it's the jumbotron effect man if you're looking up of that jumbotron and you see an ops in the sevens when you're not used to have an ops in the seven or you're seeing that batting average down a little bit lower than you want it makes a difference so i'm not going to sit here and say that

doesn't make a difference because it does i think that if you i think that if he went back and looked and was like okay yeah the numbers that were used to looking at don't look as good, but they would be touting all those other numbers I just said. The exit velocity was still there. The Wobo was still decent. It was the bad bib. So he had a little bit of,

he was a little unlucky. That's what he'd be hanging on to, but now he doesn't have to do that. So I do think there's a factor in that for sure. But he's a confident guy. You know what Gator Pete would come back with? He'd say the past two seasons, which we've been doing with a lot of guys,

combining 2020, 2019 and 2020. He's led baseball in home runs. 69 home runs. Second place, Eugenio. So he's, Pete's tasting himself, wearing the shades, keeping it sexy at first base. He's ready to go. Is Dom Smith going to play the outfield?

They've got him penciling at left field. The bat's cool. The side by side of him and Barry Bond's having the same swing is pretty cool. I mean, it feels like when you tune into spring, training games. I know Lendor's over there, but he's new. It feels like Pete and Dom's team. It feels like those are the top of the dugout guys. Those are the guys yelling, having fun, involved. And they were competing for like a position at one point. So that's pretty cool. Dom Smith, the past two years, 139 games. So essentially a full season, 299, 366, a 937 OPS,

a 150 OPS plus. That dude, figuring it out. I think he's figured it out at the play. I think he's kind of known, or maybe I thought he was too known in our area, but if you're looking for a breakout guy that might not be known nationwide across baseball, I don't think he is now, but it should be. Yeah. Here's the thing that they're going to have to struggle with all year long. All year. You put him out in left field, and you got, you said they have Alberto Armora and they got Pilar.

When do you sub him out for defense? And do you, knowing that his, spot in the order might come back up. He's that good of a hitter, but he's also kind of that poor of a defender. Pitchers are hitting, so you just make it part of a double switch. Everyone gets subbed out all the time. But I think part of that, the Mets depth, as you just nibbled into, Trev, PR, Almorea, two guys that are kind of known for their defensive prowess.

You've got some juggle there. Would you call him PR? Pilar. Well, he saw VR right next to him, so I think he combined. Yeah, I could have also been jumping to V. I think you can say a hard L. You can say a hard L with that one. You've got to be careful with him.

Polar. Villar, Vyar, Jonathan Vier, and underrated signing, man. That guy plays all over. He's with them? Yeah, Trev. He's on the bench. He likes that signing. He racks up war, man.

He can play all over. Switch hit for you. Giorme, our guy. This team has depth. So I think, like you're saying, when the injury bug does strike and when they're doing double switches all this, McNeil, he can move around. this team's got some versatility to it that I think that's a good what to watch for

and Mets fans like what's the closing lineup like when it's the ninth inning and Diaz comes in who are the super subs to lock at home because yeah there's still question marks defensively Jady Davis Dom Smith Deorme and Pilar just throw them in that If I'm running a team

I want that shutdown defense defensive alignment in the night I want that yeah it's always fun I think they're going to roll with it any prospects coming up for the Mets

let's see um man Maricio Ronnie he's he's young shortstop I was going to ask you guys this question kind of a decent segue since they got a young shortstop

coming up sure you know fairly soon what are the chances they sign the door to the extension I don't think Lindor is going to sign an extension. I think he wants to go around town and get his champagne bottles

and get his face put on scoreboards with other jerseys on his body and be the bell of the ball and be treated to everything. And he deserves that, and anyone that wants to do that, deserves to be able to do that. So I think they'd really have to wow him. Like, really wow him? What's the chances they trade on this year? And at least is brutal.

You mentioned that? And they're back and you think no chance? You can't. You can't because you have to try to extend him. The best way to be able to extend him is to have the longest time to be able to talk to just him. Right? You only got through the World Series, right? Yeah.

But I mean, instead of trading him in August, gives you all of September. I don't mean to be a Debbie Downer for Mets fans that are listening to this. There is a scenario where Francisco Indoor gets traded. I don't think so, man. It would be something. With how the wild card is set up, I mean, things would have. have to go so awry. Hey, if they somehow were awful, right?

Like if, or the Braves and the Nats were so good or Phillies, whatever, I don't think this is going to happen. But if there was some way where they were like, shit, we might be sellers. Not going to happen. They got people. They could trade Thor. They could trade Conforto. They could trade Lindor.

They can trade Strowman. But again, not going to happen. This team's pretty good. I'm out on that. I think they're good, too. I'm just, there is that scenario that could come into play. How about Tommy Hunter, non-raster invite, Trev, your boy. Hildenberger, another twins, great.

Blevins, Fis Caino. Okay, so they got a little bit of NRI depth going on. I thought Jerry Blevins was like 60 years old. He's still playing? Jerry Blevins, 37 and a half, baby. Is Jerry or is Jerry? My bad. You're good.

Jerry Blevins sounds like an umpire. It does. Yamamoto. Sean Reed fully. Here's Max's fun stat. First baseman Peter Lonzer recorded the second hardest hit ball in all of baseball and the hardest hit ball in the NL last season. 118.4 miles for our double off Oliver Drake.

Hardest hit ball in the NL. Okay, I was going to say because Stan hit 1-121. Meanwhile, his first base platoon, Dominic Smith, has 43% of his batted balls register on Stackass as a sweet spot hit. Wow. Those guys are good. The draft king's over under is 90.5. Whoa.

90.5, huh? I mean, in the NLE East this year. Golly. 90.5. That's a big boy number. So they won 86 in 2019. Yep. And the Braves won the division with 97.

In 2018, the Braves won the division with 90 games. Yeah, I'm sorry. Mets fans aren't going to like this, but it's under just because of the division, man. Okay, what if I read off their April for you? We're all going to go under because they're going to be playing great teams. What if they're playing really easy? And with Carrasco. What are they playing really easy teams?

They're not. They play in the east, man. Trevor, you're going under, two unders in a row? I am going under. I told you guys, I'm if he on. I'm if he on it. I think, you know, it's a good team. There's a lot of good players on this team, but like you guys talk about Minnesota

and the playoffs, I just need to see it. I need to see it from this Mets organization. Nats, then the Phillies, then the Marlins, then the Phillies, then the Rockies, then the Cups, then the Nats and the Redside. I mean, I'm going to go under as well. I mean, what did you think the number was going to be? 87. Yeah.

Just because the division, I think, is going to beat up on each other. Obviously, I think this team's good. There is like, I don't know, just energy and, like, is it changing? Did Cohen change it? Because like we said, 2019 Mets had the four pitchers that they wanted. They had the hitters going off. Bullpen blew it. and they finish in third.

I'm under. And I think even if they have a good season, it's still going to be under. If they live up to their expectations, I see them. If Carasco wasn't injured to start the year and Cindergarde wasn't coming off Tommy John, I'd like it a lot, lot more.

I mean, a healthy Cindergarde. Big time game changer. Is a big time game changer. Guys got a career three. 3-3-1. Don't know how long Carrasco is going to be at either. I don't think it'll be that. I read May, but...

You never know, Hamys. No, that's just a high number. I'm sorry. I'm sorry, Mets, I like this team, and I actually very much hope I'm wrong because I hope Yankees and Mets in this city, people are going absolutely nuts. But 90 in that division, that's just...

That's a brutal task. That's a brutal task. All right. Goodbye. Go Trevor May. I like your team, Mets fans. I like your team.