Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 310 | Prop Bets

Episode Date: March 23, 2021

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Hello and welcome to Talkin Baseball. We've got some prop bets for you, season long bets. Let's do it. Hello and welcome to Talking Baseball presented by Draft Kings. My name is Jimmy. His name is Jake coming here for California in a nice, crisp white hoodie. It's Trevor Plouffe and producer Bug Bug Bug Dude Behind the Dish. We did this last season.

We're doing it again this season. and we'll be giving our prop bets. Each of us went to the Draft King's prop bet season long bet page. We can link it in the description if you guys wanted to go check it out. And we all chose three. So we'll be presenting those today. We are going to talk a little news coverage at the start. Beforehand, Trev is excited about the Sal Perez deal.

This episode is brought to you by laughs from the past season 10. Do you know what that is, Trev? I do. I'm excited. to check it out. I know you guys love doing it. It's got a great following, right? It's got a small but mighty full following that we're hoping becomes a big and mighty full following.

But yeah, laughs from the past is a history slash comedy podcast that Jake and I have been doing for a while now. I think it was the third thing we started way back, way back and the way back when we were just like, let's just throw things out there. I'm history major. Jake's Jake likes jokes. I'm an idiot. Season 10 is historical sleuths. We are solving historical mysteries. We have a writer that wrote it for us.

We have a whole team doing it. The first episode is out today on any podcast app. And it's also available on the John Boy, Jake TV YouTube channel. We solved the case of Mary Celeste. So you can put that in the book, mark it as solved. Go check out, laughs from the past. Season 10. Presented by Cushy Dreams.

They sponsored that whole thing. So we thank them for that. Yeah, I mean, perfect. If you're road-tripping, if you're getting into it, like Jim said, season 10, and it's evergreen. So if you're in, give it a try, you just ran into about 100 hours of content. So enjoy. So thanks to Cousie Dreams for making it happen because the season was about to be the whole show. We were like, maybe we don't do it anymore.

And it's just a fun memory. But nope, it's back. Better Than Ever, Season 10, presented by Cussie Dreams, last from the past. All right. We also have some patrons that I'm going to shout out real quick. And let's see how much I get right and wrong. How many? Adam distazzo.

Wow. Perfect. AIO. Dastasio? I wanted to go EO, but. Italian with it. Just right off the bat right there. Yeah, a tough one.

Luis Rodriguez Jr. Kevin Rubio. Chris Colum Anders Foster Cameron. Threadgold? Threadield? Threadgold, like two different words. Sean Mogle, Sam Calais,

Kenny Schmidt, Pat the stat, Sam Long, Walt J and Cole Boudreau. It's a cool name. Cole Boudreau. Good hockey name. That's a cool name for being honest. Sorry, Cole.

Thank you very much for our most recent patrons. Trevor, how are you doing? I'm excellent. I'm happy to be here. It's coming down to it. Baseball season's here. I'm flying to New York a week from tomorrow. I'm excited. Handsy. I went to the mall this weekend. I bought a Yankees hat. I know that kind of got put out there on social media. Strange feeling putting that hat on. I don't know if I've ever worn a Yankees hat ever in my life. Felt good, right? So I put it on. I felt very business-like in it. I felt very business-like in it. Like it was almost like a suit. Like a Yankee hat is like a suit to me. Whereas the other hats aren't like that.

So I'll be wearing it in New York. Check me out. And then I'm sorry for calling, shoot, I already forgot. Flushing. Flushings. Yeah. Apology accepted on behalf of all the flushings. Huge.

Jake, how are you? Doing well. Doing well. Excited for the prop bet episode. Prop bet app last year marked a kind of, kind of were out of the woods when we finally got to do it. You know, we went through so much crappola part in my French. Did we do it too?

Maybe we can edit that out. Did we do like a real season prop bet and then a shortened season? Because it was cut off too early. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So by the time we got to the actual prop bet, it was for the shortened season. And it was like, it was real. It was finally real. So coming back and doing the propette.

episode, I'm stoked for. And it brings back good memories from last year, which not a lot of people can say. I always like looking at the prop bets and just seeing what Vegas, the smart people, like, have it at. You are Vegas in a way. Yeah, well, Jimmy's dumb prop bet of the day, me versus the public, be on the lookout every Monday through Friday. I fucking got you guys. Gotcha. Me versus you.

Hey Trev Old buddy, old pal Talk to me Before we get into all this free money We're giving away to the people At draftkings.com I heard there's some A.L. Central talk You're always trying to kick off the show with now.

You know I love the A.L. Central. We don't talk enough about them. We're a coastal bias pod people are saying. A lot of people are saying that And by a lot of people, I mean me right now. But I do want to talk about the Sal Perez situation, Because most of the time when we talk about organizations and contracts, we're talking about,

are we shaving money? Who are we getting rid of? The elite guys, yeah, they're getting paid, but they're waiting. There's a lot of business, business, business, straight up capital, straight up money talk when we talk about contracts. But this is a little different. And I don't know if you guys saw, but over, what was it, over the weekend, the Royals extended south. four years, $82 million, $31-year-old catcher,

Tommy John, knee surgery, and they threw the bag of them. And people go back, I say it comes full circle because if you go back to the beginning of his career, he had one of the most outrageous contracts of all time in professional baseball. The Royals gave him...

It was like four years, seven million or something like that. It was five years, seven million guaranteed. That's a contract. check that Mickey Mantle signed. They gave him three optioneers, three team option years, Jim. And the total of those option years, I had to look it up. It was ridiculous. It was like another 14 million total.

So in all, it could have been an eight-year $21 million deal. And by the time those option years came around, Sal had been an All-Star for three straight seasons, like it was the backbone of the organization. And he still is. Now, we have to talk about the middle contract, because now this is number three for El Sal. Middle contract, Dayton Moore said, you know what, we owe it to this guy.

He ripped up the last years of his first contract and paid him out whatever it was. It was another, I had it somewhere, four years 52 or five years 52, something like that. So gave him a nice chunk of change when they didn't have to do that. And that's kind of like the theme of this contract. The royals didn't have to do that.

But the way they've been acting with Dayton, there's a new owner since 2019, but they're really setting themselves up for like to be a place players want to go play. They're treating people the right way. And we talk about Sal, and I reference this all the time, when you have a young organization like that who's kind of, their window's not here yet. It's a couple of years down the road. You have a bunch of young guys. You need the veteran presence.

You need to help these guys become quality major league. yours. The manager can't do that. The front office can't do that. You have to have players. And Sal, basically with this contract, they're paying him to be Sal on the field, to put up numbers still, but also to take this franchise to where they want to go in the next four or five years. And so essentially, I wanted to get props to the Royals organizations and then congrats to Sal, who's earned every penny of this contract. And we talked about a lot of the Royals moves this offseason. And maybe even on the PPP, we talked about the new ownership group and how I was thinking of it from a fan's perspective.

Like, hey, we may not be, you know, hunting out the division, but we're going to give you a quality product because it's Royals baseball. But from building up the reputation around the league that like, hey, these guys take care of players is another great aspect that you brought up, Trev. So the numbers were kind of shocking at first. They're big. They're big. I mean, what is it?

20 million a year or a little above? A little above 20 a year. I don't think he'd get that. on the open market, but they're paying some dues because they gave him basically the same contract Nolan Ryan signed in 1979. That's, I don't know. Not fact based on the Nolan Ryan contract. It was just a...

It's a construct of a concept. Yeah. Yeah, and hey, good on Salvy, man. It's going to be interesting to see how the contract plays out. He's a big boy catcher. Our fame Jason Kendall episode, he talked about that in their relationship. 6-3-255 listed built different. It was 1979.

Bang? So I take it back. I'm the smartest man alive. Completely fact-based. Five gold gloves like Trevor mentioned, three-time silver slugger, including last season where, hey, it was 37 games,

the Big Boy flat-out raked. I'm interested to see because, you know, he missed all of 2019 with the T-J. He only played 37 games last year, so maybe he's got a fresh three, four-year- behind the dish for the Royals and they can try to build out that team around them. Or, hey, maybe Big Boy Salvi's found a little extra juice in the bad, and if he needs to tuck over to first base,

he can be built different a little bit at the end of Carlos Santana's two years. So you've got to be excited if you're Kansas City Royal. And, hey, Jim, I know you said he probably doesn't get that on the open market. If he went out and had a big boy year, I mean, who knows how the new CBA and stuff plays out, but he could probably get around 20 mil a year. I don't know if it would have been for three years. It all depends on how you hit free agency, obviously. But good on the Royals, man.

How can you not be excited for them? Yeah, you know, what was I just going to say? I just lost my train of thought. You said you were so good right there. I lost my train of thought. No problem. Different. I really did.

I really just blanked out right there. Go Royals. Okay. Go Royals. Do you want to go play in the Savannah Bananas League? Obviously, Jake and I were down there the past weekend. We had a dinner with them, Treve, and I said next year we're going to get Trevor to play in it. Jake's going to be pitching you knuckleballs.

Jake threw one knuckleball when we were doing bullpen session. It was nasty. I heard two that danced. The cameras were on knuckleball to me. I would do it. Okay. I like knuckleballs. Well, they do a showdown.

So I'm thinking that the three of them. us can be a showdown team. Like Jake's the fielder, Trev's the pitcher, I'm the catcher, and we do a show. So what they do, Trev, is once they hit the, isn't that a good idea? Once they hit the two-hour time limit. For you guys.

Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Once they hit the two-hour time limit, because they're like a fan first, like let's keep the action moving experience. They go to its first team to five points wins. If you win an inning, you get a point. So, you know, if the two-hour limit hits after the seventh inning just ended,

it could be four to three is the score, right? So there could also be a walk off every single inning. We have a whole video coming out detailing it. But anyway, they go to a showdown, and it's just a pitcher, a fielder, and a catcher versus the batter. And he has to put it in play and score. Does he run the bases? Yeah, he has to run the full bases.

And the fielder has to start on the grass in front of a second. Go run to the outfield, grab it, throw to the pitcher, throw home relay race, get him at the plate. So we'll be a three-team. Oh, you have to continue running the whole time? Like, you have to try to hit inside the park home run every time? Yes, you have, you cannot stop. You have to. Outside the park, home run ends the game immediately.

This is wild. Yeah. Yeah, so we're going to go next year. It's going to be the three of us. We'll be a showdown team. See you there? I charge a lot to play baseball. ball just savannah bananas just so you know it's fine i mean you and me giving speeches to the kids

about grinding and trying to make it i think that would be impactful too so if if i get to give a speech about grinding okay then i'll do it for free it's gonna be a hot in here music video yeah coach treb you can also coach treb they at that we were we were offered to coach first base you're coached base is boring you don't want first base we didn't do it because it's kind of Actually, coaching the bases in general, it's kind of brutal. Third base is cool because you can die at any point if there's a righty up. Yeah, so that's cool. Yeah, and then you get high fives when they hit home runs.

Anyway. A lot of stress. Third base coach, very stressful. Stress. What about first base? You got to yell back. What if you yell back and you're wrong? First base coach, I mean, you just, you're a gear collector.

Yeah, I'd be good at that. Collecting gear, first base coach? Yeah. Would you be the guy that puts it all over his body? Are you throwing it to the bat boy every time? You already know the answer, Treve. I'm throwing it to the bat boy. I already know.

It's barely in my hand. I probably start with beak. I go tricep guard over the nose and then build off of that. Yeah. So you'd be perfect with bananas. Yeah, I'd be good at that. He's like, where is my stuff? A long inning.

Oh, Jake still has my shin guard on. Can I get it? That's how you'd know a good inning would happen. If I'm covered in gear, That means we rallied, boys. I threw out the first banana trev. Did you see any footage of that? I did see it.

I did. It was raining. Yeah, I don't know if it was raining when I was out there. It was freezing. And I did all my bullpens and shorts and a t-shirt. So I didn't want to change into the jeans and long sleeves that everyone else changed into because I was like, I can't mess this up. It wasn't a strike, but I got it there. Catcher was like, I can't believe you threw it from the mound.

I said, well, what do you think I am? A lame banana thrower? Is this? Yeah. Talking baseball, 25K subs. Thank you, everybody. All right. Go shave your balls with Manscaped. They got a lawnmower.

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You're going to need some of those wipes. I don't hate my ball, so I smell. So I'm not the perfect target market for that. But. I don't think it's the smell. It's the feel. Oh, it's all of it, baby. Sometimes you need the restart.

Yeah. Yeah, a little freshen up. A little French bath. Well, because of their ceramic blade and advanced skin safe technology, your snags will be reduced with a close shave. If the lawnmower 3.0 is simply the best hygiene tool for the modern man. Hit the sweet spot in every way for your balls. And then the crop preserver is the anti-chafing ball deodorant.

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Tell him, Trevor. I use manscape. I'm a customer. What was your opening day manscape routine? Boclore with a huge YouTube donation. Thank you, Boclore. Wow, what a good name too. Thank you. Would you just go clean-shaven for opening day, or would you leave a pattern, Twins logo?

Like a baseball bat with a ball on top of it, right? You'd get the head groundskeeper and they'd do a Twins logo. I thought all the twins shaved baseball bats and you guys just compared bats before the game. Some people weren't about that life. Some people wanted to just grow it out. It's cold. It's cold in Minnesota.

Oh, yeah. It's cold. You don't want to just be out there just clean shave and freezing your balls off. Yeah, some protection. All right, Jake, you're the most excited about the prop bets. Oh, my God. So I'm going to throw it to you first. What is your first bet that you found on the Draft King's website that you are telling the people to take?

Okay. Well, I'm going to scare the people here because I'm going to do a player bet, and it's going to be an under, but it's actually a positive under. And I'll tell you why. It's a guy who I'm on and I love this year. But I think the number's high and I don't think it's its skill set. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. DraftKings.com has the over under at 28.5 home runs for the season.

28 and a half. Now Slim Daddy Vladdy, we got the new shirts on the site. Here's my thing. I love Vladdy Jr. as a contact hitter. Go check out the minor league numbers. Go watch him at the dish. You guys know what Vladdy hit in his minor league career? 331.

And Vlad's come up. He's had some highs. He's had some lows. He lost all the weight. I don't have Vladdy as a big power guy. I think he lands around 20, 22. I've got him with a big batting average this year. I'm buying Vladdy Jr.

How many games do you have him playing? But I'm taking the under. 145? Like a buck 40, yeah. All right. So 140, we'll say just times four, 560 played appearances. Because he does not hit home runs at a home run average. So I'm surprised they have it that high.

Yeah, I mean, I think Vlad Jr. is breaking. What do they have it as? They have 28 and a half. So I love Vladdy Jr. with the full breakout this year being an absolute stud and all-star potential MVP-type votes. But it's because of the batting average. I think he's going to be a 3-15, 320, maybe north of that.

And I just think that 28 and a half seemed a little high for me. So I'm sorry, Blue Jays fans. I'm going to take the under on that. but it's not because I don't believe in Vladdy. It's just, I don't, he doesn't need to hit 28 home runs to be an absolute stud this year. He lost all the weight, Trev. I don't know. Speaking of Manscape, that's a ballsy under.

Ooh. I don't think so. I'm trying to. Roger Center. If anyone had like a camera over my shoulder about the math I'm trying to do my calculator, it'd be so scared for me. I'm worried for you. Clearly not a math pod.

Vlad's up in. He hits home runs at a, like a three. 3.5%. Say 4%. What's 4%. Oh, boy. How about I help you out? Oh, yeah, help out a little. His 162 game, his 162 game average up until this point is 21. Yeah. So that's a full season. If we had him playing 140 games, four played appearances a game at his current, I'm bumping up his home run rate to 4%. He's never done that. It would be 18 home runs. So I think it's a great under by you. Thank you. Get under me, Trev. here's the thing he's played at age 20 and 21

like this guy is going to get better and his power isn't going to develop more I think being leaner is going to help his power because the Rogers Center is one of the is it still called the Rogers Center? I think so they are starting in Dunedin there's a lot of name changed in these parks

I don't like it they are starting in Dunedin but once you get to the Roger Center it was one of those places is, and I referenced this, multiple times in the pod, Roger Center, Minutemade Park in Houston. You went in there, and if you didn't hit a homer, you were so mad. This place is a bandbox, dude.

And a guy like that, they can barrel balls up, like he can do it. I mean, he can run into seven or eight in a week if he has a good homestand. So I know the numbers are there to support you. I'm just saying this guy's 22. He's going to get better and more powerful as he goes. It's just, man, that ballpark. You want to know my other Jakey sneak cut on this? Is that if Vladdy goes over, I'm still stoked.

Exactly. That means he's a stud and it's awesome. So this is win-win for me. Vladdy under 28 and a half. Big doubles year for Vladdy. Maybe leads the AL and doubles. Ooh, doubles. He's a double guy.

Yeah. Trev, do you? Do you have a player home run total? Because I do if we just want to keep it the same theme right here. Yeah, I do. I have it. Okay. Because, all right, so we're doing a player home run total over under.

Trev, you go first. All right, I'm going to give you two guys. Okay. Because they're both from Texas and everything's big. Is this two of your three picks or you still have two more after these? This is just bonus. I couldn't decide who to go with here. and they're very similar.

I mean, not similar, but they're both lefties in Texas. One plays in Houston, one plays in Arlington. I'm taking Yordon Alvarez and Joey Gallo, both to hit over their home run. I have Joey Gallo and under on my board. It's not my number one pick. It's not where I'm going with it. He hated that stadium. It's a big number for Gallo.

He's going to have no protection. He's just going to get walked. and then he's only... And all he does is try to hit home runs. I know. If he's got 100 hits, he's going to hit 40 homers. Yeah, I agree. I'll give you my reasoning, but, you know,

I'll give you my reasoning. Please. Okay, my video was chopped there. For Gallo, the last two years, he's played a full season. Yeah. 41 and 40 homers. Get this guy 600 of bats,

or even 530.30. above and he's going to do it. It's the kind of hitter he is. Have you seen him? He's locked in in spring. He's been in the same day. I just like him going into this year, kind of like coming into his own.

I even have him to lead the league in homers. Okay. Yeah, Trev. My reason for Yordon Alvres is the exact same thing. I mean, last time he was healthy in 2019, 369 plate appearances, 27 homers. It's a band box Minutemad

He's going to be healthy this year And the number for him is Joey Gallows is high It's 38 and a half Yeah And for Yaron Alps is 33 and a half I think that's an easy over for him

The Gallo one's super interesting I mean he hit 40 and 41 In 2017 and 2018 He did get You know A lot of games in And played appearances He played full season yesterday

He just didn't really hit good at that park And in a bad year, he's still got 10 homers in 57 games. So that's where the numbers do help out Gallo. And spring training doesn't matter. But sometimes it kind of does. And Gallo is having a big spring. So I think that's good, especially coming off his year last year. And yeah, man, I mean, you're in Alvarez.

I mean. Those 10 and 57 actually is like cut in half what he has done. Right. In the other years. And that's only that's still on pace for, like a 30 homer season. Yeah. Jordan's going to be interesting, man.

I mean, if he comes out and he starts popping dingers, this guy's going to be in like rare air for how many home runs he's hit. And so as a Yankees fan, a little scared, but he could make that number look like. He's the real deal. People forget how good this guy is. He can make that number look like chump change in a hundred games if he looks like that dude. A little Texas two step out of Treve, huh? Yeah.

A gallo was on my board. I have five homers in 29 at bats. Huge. And all right, in the new park, yeah. Treve, you might want to do a leave and come back or a toggle the video refresh. Not crispy. Not crispy. Not crispy one bit.

Look crispy now. We'll see when you start moving. Oh, no, not really. Well, Jim, what you're up, kid? Yeah. I'm taking one of the better and best players in the history of the game, and I'm throwing the under your way. Mike Trout, they have that at 41 and a half homers,

and he's only done that one time in his career. And if the balls are truly getting deadened a little bit, and if the Angels are trying to win games, like, I don't know, I just don't think, like, I think Trout's trying to work on his all-around game. I don't think he's trying to set his personal home. No, he's not a gallo out there. it's just like, you know, every hits can be home run.

He's only done that once. I thought I was very high number for Trout to be one of the highest home run overunders. So I'm taking the under on there. Probably lands in the high 30s, in my opinion. Okay. Yeah, no, I mean, that's the thing with overunders. I mean, Mike Trout, even if he has like, you know, a three-week hammy thing, you're pretty much safe.

I think the only threat there is, if Mike Trout is there for a full year, those power numbers have kind of been ticking up lately. Well, the only time that he got more than got 42 or more homers was actually a year where he missed 30 games. Right. I mean, that was 2019. That was the ball was flying. The most juice the ball's been. 45 homers and 134 games.

That's insane. But hey, he followed it up in 2020, 17 and 53. So quick math in my head. I mean, that's kind of on pace. So it was a 7.1% clip. His best ever was a 7.5% home run radio. I just think he can. A big number.

He can hit that if Trout says, hey, I'm going to go hit home runs. But, I mean, this is a guy who hits for average and slaps the ball around and goes whichever way the pitcher wants him to go. So I don't know. That one caught my eye as well for all the same reasons, Jimmy. He's just not, that's not like what he's being asked. You're still a couple years away from the thick daddy trout years that we've been getting, excited about. A couple years away from when he's going to be, like, just trying to hit him.

He built different. The problem with that taking an under on anything trout is it's Mike Trout. Well, that's why they put it so high, I think. It can so easily just happen. It's 60. Nah, I don't think so. I don't think he wants to. I think if he wanted to, he could.

I agree with, if Trout wanted to do anything on baseball, I think he could do it in the batters box right now. I think the danger with that is he could be making the turn to Power Trout. The last two seasons, 187 games, 62 homers. That's a 54 homer per 162 pace. So if he is fully making that turn, but I mean, betting-wise, it's a safe angle to play. You're an injury or a slump away from kind of being safe on that.

You know what sucks about when you look at Trout's baseball reference page. There's all those stars lined up And then 2020, because we didn't have an all-star game, there's going to be a gap. And I'm going to hate that in 10 years when there's 19 out of 20 years he's an all-star and doesn't show that little star. You can piss me off.

You can still do consecutive, I guess, because... Yeah, you still can, but it doesn't line up on his game. It's a gap on the page. I get it. Unbelievable. I get it. I should have done a post-season, like, All-Star. Yeah.

Well, he said he was bad last year. He said I had a bad year last year. He had a 993 OPS. I think he's having a tough spring. It was bad for him. That's insane, dude. What a monster. Am I wrong?

I like the number. You guys gave very straight numbers based. I guess we all kind of did. My minor backed up on numbers as well. Believe in yourself. These are scary. Unders are scary. Anders are scary

Unders are scary Especially Michael Michael Nelson Trout I like that Where we going next He slaps it around No power in spring training this far

He challenges Vlad for the batting title this year Palm Him and Vlad Gaw only one extra Only one extra base it in spring training, Trev The Milvo Media The Milvo Media Where you want to go next? Jake, you take us wherever you want to go.

Okay, so are we looking for winners or do deep cuts play? I've got one deep cut. I don't know. That's just, it's a sprinkle bed. I've got my sprinkle. Last year we did value picks. Yeah. And then Kyle put the graphic out and we got a lot of shit from people who did not

understand like the value aspect of it. Michael Jordan, fuck them kids. They thought we were just making our picks for who was going to win MVP. Yeah. Our best bets. Yeah, and it was like, no, we were doing like... Okay, DeGrom, NL. Siong. No, get that out of here.

Exactly, exactly. I've got the value for the kids. A little sprinkle season. A little sprinkle season for the NL. Sai Young. This is the guy who finished sixth in the NL. Sai Young last year, and he currently has the one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine,

15, 16, 17, 17, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21. He's got the 22nd best odds. Finish 6 in the Cy Young last year. He's in his prime age. He found something. Corbin Burns of the Brewers is plus 4,000. So you've got the big boys.

You know who's going to be around. DeGrom, if he's healthy, it's going to be tough to stop. I get it. Trevor Bauer. A little fun spring training for him yesterday got hit a little bit. We'll see how he is on the Dodgers. Look what Corbyn Burns did last year. It's a small sample.

I know. I know. But, man, he was lights out. He changed his pitch mix, Jim. You love a good pitch mix change. He had a 2-11 ERA and nine starts last year. A K-per-9 of 13.3. That's closer stuff.

So, hey, if he found it and he made the turn in kind of a weak hitting central division. The central's playing the central again. It's a value play. Don't bet the house on it. But don't be surprised if you look later in the season and those odds start creeping up on Corbyn Burns. I think he could be a breakout player this year.

He kind of did break out, but it was just a small year. What are you throwing on it? You put 20 on there, and you just say if it's gone, it's gone. 20 to win 800. Yeah. Oops. Could use $800. It's a deep cut.

It's a cut. Let the people come at me. Finish sixth in the sye last year. Twenty-second best odds? Get out of my face, bugs. I'd take... I'd take J. Flair, if I'm taking someone from the Central. It's hot.

Let me tell you, you're going to go over and do the same thing we did last year. People are going to say, Jake picked Corbyn Burns to win the Sigh Young. Send them. No, no, he picked his odds. The odds are pretty high. Send them. Take a run at me. 31.

I'm not going to do the Sy Young thing. We're not doing that. I have another one. Yeah, I don't have a Cy Young, so you're fine. Okay. I went to yes or no, make the postseason odds. I like that. You sneak away, and we still,

we don't even know. MLB and the Players Association might come out and say, we're going to add two more teams, three more teams, four more teams. That could happen because that happened last year. I don't know if you guys remember that. Before they do that, Jake was saying they were adding new franchises.

Just to the league. I was like, whoa. No, I'm sorry, to the playoffs. They did that last year. That could happen again this year. Okay? So before they do that, go ahead and sprinkle. This is actually a really good bad.

Don't sprinkle. Put a full unit on it. Hammer it. I'm taking a huge. Houston Astros to make the playoffs at minus 124. Essentially, you're getting regular odds on it, paying a little bit of extra juice. But, I mean, this team has been in an ALCS last four years in a row.

And we're getting them just to make the playoffs at 124? Love that. I think that's a no-brainer to me. Love that. Zane Joker, Jake, Jake Odorezi, hopefully Frammer's not out this entire season. I can't, I don't think he's going to be out this entire season. we know what the lineup can do.

They're getting Yordon back. That is a huge pick up for them. So that's, to me, it's a no-brainer. I can't imagine a scenario where the Houston Astros this year are not in the playoffs. Well, speaking of the Astros, that's where the pitcher I'm going to is. And I looked at season leaders and wins.

Because I feel like that's a fun one because you kind of, you can't. allowed a lot of teams that aren't going to win a lot of games. So then you go to the teams that you think are going to be good in their division, and you go to the pitchers that are good on that team, and then you find the odds you like the most. This is the same as Jake's Sigh-Young odds for Corbyn-Burban Burns, $4,000 plus $4,000.

It's cranky to lead the AL and wins. I think that division's pretty weak. He's their clear best pitcher. I think they're not going to glass now them and take them out at five innings or four innings. They'll let Granky pitch. And Granky wins games anyway. He won 18 and 2019.

15 before that, 17. You're looking at 18, 19 wins leading the league these years. So I like DeGrom, but because I think the Mets will finally give DeGrom some support with the bats and the bullpen this year. But his odds are he's like the second, he's like the second favorite to lead and wins. Granky's way down there. And I think the Astros are going to win a lot of games.

I think Granky's going to be their best pitcher. I think they're going to rely on them a lot. And the odds are really good. Same as Jake's Corbyn Burns. If Jake had you putting 20 on Burns, I like my chance is better. Put 20 on Granky. Win $800. I don't hate that pick, James.

They are going to win a lot of games. And Grinkie's a good pitcher. That's fun. I like it. You can play the old man card. that you're not going to be worried about inning limits and that kind of stuff just let them rip.

Yep. That's a good pick. I think it's this last year on the Astros too. I'll take the knife out of my heart with same odds. Take my bet. Yeah, same odds. Whatever.

Same odds. Whatever. Emotionally, spiritually. Well, Houston love. We're Houston pod. Always have been. Can't wait. I think I'm the biggest Houston fan on the pod.

I've been pushing for him. since about halfway through last year been on the bandwagon. I mean, if you're going to play that card, Jimmy can say the Dusty's got a planet game. He was hammering that home. Trev was the first. He texted us and was like, hey, let's be nice to Astros.

I think, ooh, revealed. I did say that. I did say that. Yeah, we said no. We said, like, well, we'll just be normal about it. Yeah. And then I was nice on the PPP. whatever. John Boy

Made you a huge Houston Astros company. I mean, we'd ever hated the Astros. What? That's true. Can I do a little like side attachment to your last prop bet, Jim? Sure. You took Zach Greenkey plus 4,000. You'd be a little sucker fish on my whale fish?

I'm going to do a little sucker fish because I like this and I like a guy on a team that's going to win a hundred-something games. Yeah. Walker Bueller, plus 15. I thought about him, but he doesn't, like, unless he's fully healthy, his game logs, like it's not a ton of five, six innings. You know, he only pitched, he had a weird year last year with some injuries, but he only pitched five innings plus and, you know, half of his games. And then I think they have the deep bullpen.

They have a lot of stuff. So I don't know. But, I mean, in 19 either. I just don't know, I didn't know his health. Dodgers fans could be like, yeah, he's fully healthy. going to be a real pitcher or they could say no he's still bad i i straight up don't know if dodgers fans say yeah he's fully healthy then i like that pick triv but i was searching for deeper odds i like i just think i want to have i want to have someone on a team that's going to win over a hundred

games and i picture like walker or i mean you could you could toss up to kershaw too i thought about both of them i did um mm-hmm um you're plus 900 i mean yeah yeah Coles plus 900. Did we all give a pitcher one then? Treve, you gave yours? He all gave a pitcher one. Corby Burns, Zach Granke, Trev, what was the one you just gave? Mine was the Houston Astros over.

Or to make the playoffs minus 124. Yes, yes, yes, yes. Astros to make the playoffs. You got a hurler one, Trev? I kind of just gave that one. Yeah, the Walker. I like Walker Bueller. Okay, sneaky Walker Bueller.

All right there. Oh, before our last round. Final bets. Obviously, we're getting all of these from Draft Kings. And if you go to Draft Kings now and download it, you can make these. We should actually put the money on the bets this year, like five bucks, 20 bucks, whatever. Because if it comes back and somehow, some way, at the end of the year,

someone's like, hey, Jimmy, you got your prop bet right. And I'm going to be like, what prop bet? What are you talking about? And they're going to show me a clip. And then I didn't actually put money on it. I'm going to be pissed. So I should do that now with Draft Kings. And you guys can do that as well.

Download the topboarded draft King Sportsbook app now and use promo code Jomba. when you sign up to turn $1.00 into $100. If the college basketball team of your choosing pulls off the win, that's their deal this week. That's code John Boy to turn $1 to $100 for a limited time only at drafting sportsbook. Must be 21 or older, New Jersey, Indiana, or Pennsylvania only. New customers only. restrictions apply.

Seedraffings.com slash sportsbook for details. Gambling problem called 1-800 gambler or in Indiana, 1-800-9 with it. With it. So Trev, you just mentioned Cole, how he is the odds-on favorite to win. to win the most games in M-O-B. DeGrom is the second on that list. Yankees Mets. Jake and I were flipping through the Draft King's pages here.

This is a fun one. And we found a very fun one. It's straight up who will have more wins, the Yankees or the Mets, and the Yankees are spotting the Mets four and a half wins. So there's a spread on. it. So if the Yankees win 95 games and the Mets only win 90, the Yankees covered the spread and you win the money. Good math. Yankees win 100.95. Obviously, they have to win.

Will the Yankees win five more games than the Mets? Bingo. And I think, yes, I'm going to put money on that. Of course you think. Of course, of course. But I really just wanted to like tell people that that bet exists. Yeah. Because I told Jake, like, I don't want to do that

because the Yankees' biased stuff. Biously, I would put the money on the Yankees to do that. I think their division is much easier than the Mets division. I don't think it's a reflection on the Yankees talent versus the Mets talent per se because both starting pitching staffs are in the same area. I just think division and scheduling. The NL is better than the A.L. right now. And the NL East is better than the AAL east right now.

So the Mets have the harder route to those that many wins. there's another bet like this, Trev. And can I bring it up now? Please. Okay, there's only one other bet in this structure that has a point spread. And it's the Chicago teams. And it's the White Sox to win. So it's Trevor, so it's the same bet.

The White Sox are favored over the Cubs. How many games would you guess? The spread is. The White Sox are favored over the Cubbies this year. Just straight up wins. I know it's kind of a tough question, but White Sox are like 91 or something, and the Cubbies were like 80, right?

So I would say it's around 10. So they've got the White Sox favored by 12.5 games over the Cubbies. So it gets really tricky because it starts with how much you believe in the White Sox. The numbers that made sense to us were when we said, All right, so if the White Sox win 95 games, then the Cubs would win 82, and the White Sox would cover that spread. And that's where it lands. The White Sox need to be a little bit better, and the Cubs need to be a little bit worse than you're guessing.

I think it's a great line. I don't have a read or a thought on it. Like, if anything, I would say that I would bet on the Cubs to cover, but I don't have a lien either. I just thought there was a very interesting line that Draft Kings has out there. that's tough i don't want to give away this because i we're going to be doing a show on the chicago white socks team soon oh yeah i have eggs i don't want to give them away just yet but i do like those bets it is cool it's if you if you're a if you're in new york or chicago or someplace with two teams like and you have a friend that likes the other team like that that's a fun bet to

do with them yeah they have they have a lot of other head-to-heads uh they just don't have spreads involved. Jim, I'm, I'm blown away. I didn't see this. I didn't have this as one of mine. They've got the raise and blue jays as a pick-um, and I'm raised up this year, man. I mean, Nate Pearson, he's got a groin thing going on. I just don't believe in the Jay's pitching. A raise are minus 106. I mean, that's, like, if I had to lock one in, I mean, I'm, I believe in the raise. They just do it every year. The Brewers and the Reds is also somewhat of a pick-em. They've got the money juiced.

If you're betting on the brewers who should be the favorite, you're losing. They're minus 137. Yeah. Oh, I said we should. Yeah. So, yeah, there's some juice on that. But what's, I thought it was.

And the raise is 106? Raisin minus 106, Treve. I know you're about to lock that in. I'm on record of saying I don't think the race are going to have the type of season that they did last year. But I also not super high on the Blue Jays this year. So that's an interesting one. Look at this.

Phillies, Red Sox. Even money. Which team's going to have more wins? Treves' films. Yeah, Phillies. They're in a tougher division. That's where the Phillies have more talent, but they're in a tougher division.

I know, but I believe in the Phillies this year. So put some money on it. I mean, that infield, they're going to keep them afloat. Oh, my goodness. Hey, I will give you this. I like bombs. turning into a stud, but still, even if he is a stud. What do you mean he's turning into a stud?

Like, he's turning into a stud. Turn into a stud. You're talking about spring training? Well, no. Okay. He had a good year last year. He did. I was going to.

I can give him a stud label yet. Are you kidding me? The guy's got to get a little more dirt on his shoes. Yeah, no, I was trying to have you say that he's having a great spring training, and then I was going to tell you that Trout has no power. She's taken away. Yeah. Yeah.

You know, I don't believe in spring training. I'm getting people are coming at me because Gary all of a sudden is struggling. Now, I mean, relax everybody. As long as he's mechanically sound, let the lights come on. And we'll see what happens. Let the lights come on. I mean, he cares about spring training. Yeah.

Dude, Nola's so nasty. Aaron Nola's, he gross. Aaron Nola's climbing up my list of guys I like pitching his. What is he, is it a two seamer or is a tight curve ball? I mean, is it a sinker or is a tight curve? it darts and it's awesome. Those both. He's nasty. He's gross. He's a

He has like a deal with yingling. He's got all these shoots where he's just like drinking beer and he's great. You guys will love this. It's a Pennsylvania beer. State beer of Pennsylvania, yeah. Young Long. BBD, I asked you for one lock before this. I said you need to lock it in for the people. Wait, did we all give our six?

I got to give one. I mean, we still got more to give, but. All right. I want to lock it in. BPD, let's go. I feel weird calling it a lock, but just the number kind of stood out to me and I have a sentence along with it. Okay, confident.

So yeah. And I hate to go with a player under, but if he goes over, I'm happy, much like your Vladdy pick. Okay. Fernando Tatez Jr. under 101.5 RBI's. He bats mostly first or second in the order. Pitchers are back in the lineup again

unless they change it on opening day. And he doesn't need to get 101 RBI. and it's tough at the very top of the order to do that without... I mean, he can easily hit a bunch of homers again and show that the power he had last year is who he is, but if he doesn't hit a ton of homers, it's just hard to get that high when you're up in the order like that. He's going to be doing a lot of the runs scoring for that team.

Well, BPD, you stole my guy from me, so I'll just piggyback you on this one. I like the over on that because... I'll tell you why. I'd be happy. It coincides exactly with where I'm going with mine. Okay. We can disagree. It's okay.

His hit total, just hits this year, is at 168 and a half. Now his career total of hits, 168. Now he's had 558 A-Bs. He's got 168 hits. if he stays healthy and I'm never going to bet on someone and say oh they might not stay healthy if he stays healthy I think he easily eclipses that mark

so I think he's I think he's gonna end up getting over 600 plate appearances I think he's going to be the hitter that he's shown and those numbers are just going to add up and they add up and they add up because that team can score a runs too I also don't think he's

betting lead off this year and they've been putting him at second for most of my training days and last year he like split first and second in the order pretty evenly. Okay. So depending on matchups. I think when it's a lefty, he bats leadoff and Grisham goes to the bottom, but I don't know

that for a fact. Me neither. Padres fans, reach out. They have fam batting leadoff in a lot of these spring training games, but I mean, it's spring, who knows? Getting him A-Bs. Yeah. Who else has it?

Who else has what? Any bets? I gave all mine. You're good? I have a batting average one that I liked. draft Kings doesn't provide it, so I didn't want it to be part of the main show. But before I went there,

I was looking at just batting average ones. Story, they have the over under at 280. Last three years he's hit. Trevor Story, they have the batting average over under at 280. I mean, last three years he's combined for $2.92. He's been over $280 the last three seasons. It's a contract year. He wants big money.

He wants to be traded. And I looked at like protection. and Aronado didn't even really bat behind him a lot. It was always Blackman, and Blackman's still there batting behind him. So that was like all the factors I looked at, and I wouldn't expect him to have a down year. I'd expect him to hit his way out of Colorado. So I was going to take the over on Trevor Story,

280 batting average. Love it. I like it. Love it. Treve, anything else in the back pocket? That's all I got, except I'm looking at Tatis's reference page here and it says free agent and that shows

you when he's going to become a free agent and it's 2035. Is your phone by that box, Treve, or something? It is not. Phone box. 2035. Yeah, we'll all be dead. I've only got one more I half believe in and mostly because

it's a cool bet and I think people should know about it. They've got home runs heads up just mono and mono. And it's Freddie Freeman Versland Door which is It's even money. It's minus 112 both ways. You can talk yourself into either. I lean Freddie. I would go, Freddie, just because Lindorne, new division, some new pitchers.

Meanwhile, Freddie coming off the MVP, also in a contract year. And his power numbers have actually been up the past couple years as he becomes thick daddy, Freddie Freeman. So a little sneaky Fred action at the end. Indiana Hoosier, Freddie Freeman. Without looking at the stats there, I also agree with you. I know Lindor hits homers, but what are his homer numbers? Lindor pops homers and it's as consistent as hell, man.

He lands in that like 33 to 38 range if he plays a full season. But New League, you know, feel some things out a little bit. Yeah, from 2017 through 2019, 33, 38, 32. And Freddie, sometimes he's a doubles guy, but I'm with dad strength, baby. God, you know, Lindor has so many played appearances. He's led the league twice in played appearances. That's a lot of played appearances. Man, I don't, yeah, I'm Freddy all the way on that.

Okay. Is, is, uh, the new stadium going to hurt Lindor? I'd say Cleveland's, what, a little, a little more friendly to right field than City? That's just top of my head guessing. I haven't played a ton of that city, but I think they're comparable. City kept moving it in for a while.

There are times where the wind takes the ball out to right center in Cleveland, but I'd say it plays pretty fair. Batters 104. I'm making up that Cleveland has kind of high walls. In right field, right? I think in left. Lafield, yeah, yeah, yeah, I don't know about right.

Cleveland and left has a high wall, but in right field it's not high. City has a field. Switch hits. Yeah, I mean, I'm going off of park factors in 2019, so I want to take it as science, but it says city's the tougher hitter park by a decent amount. But I don't even know what those numbers mean, so I'm going to shut the fuck out.

Yeah, they moved the fences in after that year, didn't they? Double curse up for me. It's life. That's life. I just don't like betting against good players. because they're good. It's tough. I took the under on the best player to ever play the game.

You did. You did, Jim. That's high. It's a big number. That's a big because they're roping in you guys. I'm not going to bet against Trout. Well, then you just don't bet it. I'm not saying, you got to bet with them.

We'll find out at the end of the year. I'm brave, man. Bravest guy in the whole world. Did we ever do a recap of last year's? We did, right? What, do we just sit down and say, yeah, We got them all wrong. Did we?

We definitely looked at him at some point, and I think it was on an episode. But I was... I remember Mustakis was my lock, and he did not hit 2505. We did some good. We did well on the batting averages. Yeah. You had a very... Jose Ramirez would have been my big payoff.

I had him for a deep cut MVP. He finished second to a brayu. I had, or Trev, I think one of us had Pilar. Yeah. Because it was, and got it wrong because you took the under on Pilar because it was like a stinky. It was the highest batting average he would have ever had in his career at 280. He never hit 280 his whole life. And you were like, this just stinks.

I'm taking the under. Hit 288. Yeah. I think that was. Vegas, man. Scary. A bunch of jerks. All right.

I think that's the episode. Thank you guys very much. Obviously, if you're on YouTube, leave a comment with any, go to Draft Kings, check out all the lines and win free money. Win free money and share your picks because there's a lot of interesting ones. The Yankees to win five more games in the Mets is so weird. Give us the number one, though, because I think we gave a bunch, like your lock. Well, everyone's going to have to go leave a comment with their number one,

and then it'll get crowdsourced by thumbs up to the top. I'm saying your lock of all the picks you gave. Oh, Rays over the Jays. Lack. Laze over Jays over Jays. That's a nice one. Yeah, I'll do Yanks five games over the Mets. Lock.

Mets division is so much, it's harder. I'll be Houston. Houston playoffs. Lock. I like my Granky one the most, where I was like... Sexy. I liked my logic and the way I figured it out in my head the most, but I wouldn't say that's the lock

because season leader is a fucking crap shoe. stuff, especially wins. Rulette table. For what it's worth the pick I had, that didn't really fit the propette mold, but I feel more strongly about it. I was going to go Brewers over 82 and a half is what they have, because they just have kind of like a raise factory. They just, like, win enough games.

They figure it out with the pitching. Well, you and Trevor going heads up on Tatis runs this year, and that's official. I have Tatis RBI's, he is Tatis hits. Oh, RBIs. They can work together. Treves against you on RBIs. I think you also said you think,

you'll have over that RBI number. You guys are fighting. That wasn't the bet, you said. I'm going all over on Tatis this year. I think he's going to get 700 plate appearances. I'm rooting for it. 700 plate appearances? That'd be awesome.

Yeah, why not? Why not? Trap? Take the over. Be good. Thank you, everyone. We love you. Win a bunch of money.