Talkin' Baseball (MLB Podcast) - 315 | San Diego Padres | Profile & Projection

Episode Date: March 28, 2021

You guys ranked the San Diego Padres the second-best team in baseball! Jomboy, Jake, & Plouffe are previewing their 2021 season Presented by DraftKings Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

I was going until Trev took his hands off of his ears. Welcome to another team profile and projection. It is Target Baseball, presented by Draft Kings, and we are talking about the San Diego Padres, the team that our audience voted as the second best in baseball. They had themselves an off-season. They had themselves a season last year. They won 37 games.

which was on pace for 100 wins. They had a run-in with the Rangers that sent them on a storm of winning like crazy. They have the biggest, flashiest new name on the team. They've been bringing guys in. They've been collecting studs. They made trades at the deadline last year, and they made even more pickups in the offseason. Jake, who did they lose and who have they gained?

Guys, they lost a couple guys. Zach Davies. kind of underrated. He's been really good for the past few seasons. Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates in the bullpen. A couple impact guys back there. Treves, Guy, Jason Castro, Joey Lucasia, Garrett Richards, all the talent in the world, a lot of injuries. Luis Petino, big prospect, might see him for the raises here. Mitch Morland at first base. Luis Perdomo, Francisco Mejia, and Greg Allen. Yankees great. Guys, more importantly, it's who's coming to town. You Darvish.

Second in the Syung last year. Top of my head, could be wrong. Blake Snell, after that heroic World Series start, he is now out from Tampa. Go check out him on the Chris Rose rotation ad. Joe Musgrove, a sexy name this offseason. Spins it.

Let's see what he does in San Diego. Mark Melanson, Keone Kila, Kela. Hassan Kim, from overseas. We'll see what he's got. A little second base might move around a little bit. Caratini, Udarvish's guy, also came over in that Cubs trade. So, man, they added some impact pieces.

A lot of pitchers when you see it all on paper. Lost a couple guys, too, but it was Upgrade City. It's their time. And Trev, what led them to their time is honestly this lineup, man. Mm. Awesome. For what it's worth, Hatiz did just lose the game with an injury. I don't know if that changes.

Whoa. So he's walking out holding his hip. He had a weird. Yeah. I'm watching. I'm watching. He treated it. Fields the ball.

A little backhand throws it. Bounce past a first. Double bounce. And he left. Mm. On his right hip. You got him out. That could change the Padre season a little bit.

We'll persevere and stay through. Appreciate it. Looks like a knee? Do you see that? I do not see it. Wow. don't know what to say. I mean, I was just about to wax poetic about this lineup and then pass and bomb on me. Do I just continue? Just continue. As if nothing happened. All right, look,

I've got to be, I got to be honest with you. Yes, we love this lineup. And yes, there are some really flashy names, but there's also some like really under the radar names that aren't going to be household, but get the job done. It's kind of this, this Padreys team does it that way. Catcher. We got Austin Nola. First base, my guy, Eric. Osmer, World Series champ with the Royals, trying to bring that winning way to the Padres at second base. Jake Croninworth, who finished second in NL rookie of the year in 2020. Then the guy we were just talking to him, shortstop, their guy, face of baseball,

14 years, 340 Mill, Fernando Tatis Jr. It's really the most exciting player that we've seen in a long time. Mani Machado at third base, we know what he can do. Tommy Fam got stabbed, but he's okay because he's got muscles. That's what I heard.

Yeah, said it would have been really bad if he wasn't, if it was me, I would have died if I took that stabbing. If he wasn't so jacked, it would have been bad, but Tommy Fam's in left field.

That's why I've been staying away to the street, Trent Grisham. That's why I've been going. I don't mean to laugh at that at all. I'm sorry. And then in right field, Will the Thrill,

Myers, after a disappointing, 2019, he slugged 606 in 2020. That's a career high. 288 batting average in 353 were also the highest since he won the rookie of the year in 2013. So that was a big step up for them. Love the lineup. Need Fernando to be okay. This is, Jim, you're going to go to the pitching now and this is, I think, where they separate themselves from a lot of different teams. Like Jake said, they brought in a lot of guys.

You Darvish from the Cubs, Blake Snell from the Rays, Joe Mudd. from the pirates, Chris Paddock from themselves. Actually, they did trade for him way back with the Marlins. And Adrian Morajone, he'll be there. Did I miss anyone? Lemieux. Mackenzie Gore might get the call at some time. Yeah, McKenzie Gore will get the core to Nelson Lamett.

What's going on with him? How come Fanagraph doesn't have him on there? Did he get injured as you were? Banged up little elbow discomfort? I have it as elbow discomfort. Okay. L'L, uh, E.D. Hmm.

Maybe get him some roaming. In there. Help him out. Yeah, that rotation's pretty cool. I mean, they brought Clevenger over and he goes down with Tommy John. Chris Batic came up. The sheriff. Shoof.

A couple years ago. And, uh, everyone's excited about him. Lemette's been amazing. But his elbow isn't comfortable right now. Just for a little bit. We'll see how that goes. We'll not be ready for opening day. We'll get his first Cactus League start on Wednesday.

thing. Hell yeah. So he's ready. Hell yeah. What do you guys think about taking all these central guys, Musgrove and Darvish and putting him in the West? I mean, you put Darvish on Mars. He still be a good pitcher. He's the real deal, man.

I think that was like, you know, we got Snell. When Darvish came over, it's like, okay. You know, I wish, I wish Clevenger was healthy. I think that changes things immensely. in that race with the Dodgers out there in the West. But even without him this year, I mean, the top three guys, plus the guys coming up, plus Paddock, if he kind of like ever captures

what people thought he was going to be. I mean, they have a chance to be really, really special. Yeah, I mean, it's... Blake Snell seems like he's got a chip on his shoulder, by the way. It's nuts. What's up with Chris Rose making Blake Snell the coolest guy ever? Like, dude. I know we...

He kind of is the coolest guy. We joke with the ads. He's like, I'm... I have feelings for Blake Snell now. It's awesome. I like Chris Rose rotation. So stop doing that Chris Rose. You've now made me love Glassnow and Snell.

Yeah, man. And hey, you know, when we talk about depth and injuries, I mean, look at this Padres team. Clevenger and Lament right now. And then Ilson should be back. But those would be a hell of a one-two punch on how many teams we've done so far. So the fact that that's in the bank right now with Darvish. Sinell, Musgrove, Paddock Marajon. Really interesting to see how Musgrove reacts.

I know he can spin it. His projected for 28 starts, a 29 starts, and a 386. You know, you're right there, Jim. Leaving the Central, let's see you do it on a big stage. One thing that I do come back to when you mention Darvish and him, San Diego has traditionally been a pretty big pitcher's park, so I think that could balance out some things anyways. but they've got the depth.

McKenzie Gore, does he get the call this year? They've got some other young pitchers who will get innings this year that, I mean, are legit prospects. So, man, this team's exciting. It just kind of sucks. They're in the division with the Big Bad Wolf, huh? Yeah, yeah. And we'll get to them next episode.

Update from Kevin AC. Fernando Tatez Jr. is heading back to the complex. unassisted seems to be walking normally. He's 100%. We believe that. Yeah, he's great. We're going to will that. Yeah.

We're going to will that. Maybe he just was tired. I'm over this. Yeah, spring training. I'm over it. I got 300 millie coming in. 340. Let's, let's go to the lineup because

there's a lot of interesting dynamics here. Trent Grisham, the guy that was remembered a little bit, for booting the ball in the Brewers Nats game, start to know him otherwise, because this dude won the gold glove, I believe, in the outfield last year, and he hits. They put him atop the lineup against Ritey's.

Tatis Machado, you already know if you're listening to this. Hosmer and Will Myers, how about a couple huge prospects back in their day, veterans that had a little bit of the swing change revolution, and holy smokes, those guys were beasts. Tommy Fam, I mean, talk about built different and crazy, some crazy on base numbers if you want to mix it up that way.

And then Croninworth Kim, that's going to be a fun story, along with ProFar as the super utility. And then, hell, I mean, Nola and Karatini is your catchers, you know, not household brand names, but guys that get it done. I mean, the Nola story is pretty wild. So this lineup, when they are full tilt, I mean, it's, you don't navigate it.

You're having a bad time, dude. I love it. I love it. And, you know, people, you know, first, what, let's see, how many years has he been in San Diego now? Three years, it's been in San Diego. First two years, Osmer comes over. 100 OPS plus, 94 OPS plus.

And people are like, hey, what did we just shell out our money for? Then it comes back last year, 131 OPS plus. Started to hit the ball in the air a little bit more, which is what people have been asking. to do this entire time. Is that an adjustment that he made? I don't really necessarily think he went up there trying to hit the ball in the air more. I think it just kind of has happened.

Maybe being around some of the other guys that came in. I'll find out for you. I've swayed what he's doing. But he's got all the talent in the world. And when you have a guy like that with that mentality, big help. I think him and Machado, like that pairing is such a perfect pairing for this friend. I'm doing some research for you, Trev, real quick. Right now, live.

Live research. He changed his swing path in a very serious way. Dude, had a negative launch angle in 2018. Yeah, he's had that, yeah. He's kind of like always had that. That's so crazy. Yeah, I mean, it's still not at, like, high. League average is 11.9 launch angle,

and he bumped his up from 8 to 8.7. His career average before that was like two. Yeah. The Royals, baby, just teaching him to play 1970s baseball. The stadium would dictate that a lot, I'm sure. I think he's on record of not fully addressing it. I don't know if it's a pride thing or whatever, but it's definitely a change.

And, you know, Trevor, I kind of kick it to you on this because you wonder if it's a coach or you wonder if it's a guy looking in the mirror or what it is because, I mean, dude, Will Myers too. I mean, Fan Graves had him as the 16th best hitter last year. This guy that came up and was supposed to be an all-world prospect and, you know, it was good. And now if he's figured it out batting sixth for them, I don't know, man. these guys are different you know i i don't know him personally that that much i played against them and from the outside it kind of looks like he's a kind of guy that needs some motivation

he's out there in san diego things aren't necessarily great for the podres while he's there so and he's got his deal he signed a deal early there wasn't a ton of motivation then you start to surround us some guys some real some superstars you start winning a little bit maybe there's a little bit of motivation factor kicking in. Maybe Hosmer and Machado kicked him in the butt and said, let's go, man, you're too good. Yeah, it's like the scene in newsies when they're fighting all of the police, you know, and Christian Bale and all of those guys are fighting the police.

They're getting their butts kicked. All of a sudden, the crew spot Conlin from Brooklyn comes, and now they get rejuvenated. And they're like, yeah, we do have numbers. and then they start fighting better themselves. And I was like, Dad, why didn't they just fight good from the start? And my dad said, well, you know, as soon as they found out they had helped, they got more confidence. So, yeah, newsies.

Just like the newsies. Yes. That's exactly what I was thinking, Jim. Barely similar. Spot Conlin. Now that I think about it. Badass. You weren't thinking about it.

That happens. It does happen. San Diego? He's probably just going to awesome Mexican food restaurants all the time, living that beach life. and then all of a sudden, these guys were like, hey. I mean, he also spiked all of his, like, hard hit numbers and slugging numbers and barrel numbers,

all the best of his career in the shorter season. He jumped up to, like, the top 1% and a lot of an exit velocity and ex-slugging and barrel and all that. Super slow in the outfield, though. Ha! Actually, he's fast. He has a terrible jump.

That's how Mike Trout plays the outfield as well. Trout's it. How about that? All of this because Chris, Woodard was mad at Fran O Tautis for hitting a 3-0 Homer. I mean, that's what sparked this team into like super start-term, right? I would like every Padres Dodgers game to be prime time, and I would like the Padres to start their best pitchers

and make their schedule so they can do that. And I think if the Padres can take that season series from the Dodgers, that would be very fun. Very hard to do. but I think that's where kind of their shot at the division lies in those 18, 19 games against the Dodgers. I think they'll beat up on everyone else. I think they'll have a lot of fun. I am rooting for them and the Dodgers.

Not rooting against the Dodgers, so Padreys fans that are like, think you have to choose one or the other. I hope both teams combine and that rivalry lifts baseball. Rivalry is, again, an out of the term Trev doesn't like, but I hope those, 18 games bring so much passion and fun and competition that they become like, hey, you got to watch the Dodgers and the Padres are playing tonight. That's what I think they can do because the Padres have a lot of personality, a lot of fun, and winning goes through the Dodgers right now. So I'm rooting for the Padres to really, those 19 games, I think the division will come down to that. I don't mind using the term rivalry. but I do think

I'll tell you why because when you're playing and you're two good teams no matter if there's a historic rivalry or not that's the team you're excited to play against like the Yankees and the Red Sox and the Red Sox are bad or vice versa like yeah sure it's a historic rivalry

and fans love that but right now I bet the Yankees get more juiced up to play the race than anybody yeah I get more messed up that's kind of how I feel about this rivalry here the good news is that they don't play each other until April 16th. So they get a little bit of time

to like get their footing. They get two weeks of baseball in before they see each other and then it's a weekend series. And then... Maybe Lament comes back for that series. A little Padres juice. So they play each other

seven times in April. Okay. I wonder if there's a big break and then September. Sometimes they do that with division rivals like that. But yeah. That's where, like, with this Padres team, I'm most interested in.

A lot of the pitching staff has some injuries. I hope I hope Snell and Darvish and all the guys they got because it's such a bummer that Cleve's not part of this and they just traded for him. I hope everyone stays healthy and strong. I think the lineup's great. I think it's versatile too. Like Tatis tagging up on fly balls to the infield is, they can beat you with speed.

They can beat you with power. And they're good OBP guys, all of them, right? I mean, a lot of them, I mean, these guys kind of do it all offensively. Yeah, they had five guys with a 350 or higher on base percentage. It's funny now that you circle it, and you can kind of put them in groups like Grisham, Tatis, Machado. Well, you're welcome, Trent Grisham. But that top of the lineup, you kind of know what you're going to get from those guys in a nice way. Um, Hosmer Fam and Will Myers.

That's kind of a different story. Those are the vets. That's the over 30 crew. And a couple of those guys are going through some changes, some, you know, fam coming back. What are you going to get from them? And then you circle second base and catcher, where it's Croninworth, Kim, Karatini, and my guy, Nola, mostly Nola, hopefully, if his fractured fingers, okay.

You know, you almost put them into groups, and it's how much are you going to get from each of them? You believe in the young guys to the umpteenth degree. the older guys who's going to bring it in Hosmer with a little playoff history maybe taps into that a little bit really interested to see how that sorts out cronanorth was so good for a little bit last year and now they bring in kim does that is that a beautiful thing are they moving them around as he bends oberist or as he look a little different if he's not getting everyday reps at second base so i'm assuming this is a big combo in padres land podres tell me uh because you know better than i um and i i don't know let me get romantic for another second. How about Snell coming over?

28-year-old Blake Snell, not the kid that, you know, me and Jimmy remember seeing him make his Major League debut against the Yanks and, you know, who's this guy from the Pacific Northwest? He's got a couple young lefties coming up in the Padre System, Moro Hone, 22 years old. He's got some MLB innings. And man, if they give McKenzie Gore the call, and he's the number two prospect in baseball, a young lefty, I wonder if, you know, Blake Snell, the maturing Blake Snell, throws a little arm over the shoulder, can give a couple tips. And, you know, I'm curious if McKenzie Corr is going to be a big name we're talking about come playoff time, or if he's kind of not in the picture for them. I'm not going to, I have something

different to say, I'm sorry I was looking up some stuff. You're fine. A lot of things went right for this team last year. Like a lot of things went right for this team last year. And yes, they added pieces, this offseason specifically pitchers in Blake Snow and Udarvish and Musgrove. But looking at like the lineup, you know, Hosmer career year offensively, Will Myers career year offensively. They had Croninworth step up.

They had Grisham step up. They added, essentially added Tatis. He was there in 2019. But man, a little bit of regression from those guys. And what are we talking about? Well, the rotation is a lot better. this team. The rotation is a lot better, but the lineup,

we talk about when guys have bad seasons in 2020, we're like, hey, chalked up to 2020. When you have a good season, we kind of have to look out of the same way. We're not going to just totally dismiss it, but there's a little caveat there. There's a little asterisk maybe on the 2020 season. So there's a couple lineups. I like a lot better than this lineup.

But the pitching's really good. And I think that's where they separate themselves. But, but I mean. I like the versatility. of the lineup too. Versatility is good. It's deep. It's deep.

I like pro for off the bench. He's kind of grown on me. I didn't like him at first, but I think he does offer exactly what they need. Do you think it's going to be his year now? Jerkson, I never know with him, man. When you expect him to eat it,

that's kind of when he balls out. You were calling a big year last year, but then COVID happened. He ended up getting decently paid, so I'm happy for him. So I'm going to expect for Jerksson. I'm going to expect low things. and then he'll ball out because of that.

Before the Grand Slam, Tate's Grand Slam, they were on a six-game losing streak, one, two, three, four, five, and they had a losing record on the season. And then from there they won, I don't know, one seven straight, and then another eight-game winning streak later on.

Schedule watch, as I was doing earlier. Schedule watch. They did do it how I love. I used to love when they did, when the Yankees and the Red Sox were the two best teams, and they've done it with the race. recently. They have six games in the last two weeks of the season. So you get seven in April and you get six in September and it's kind of like go get yours at the beginning and then you're not going

to see each other. I mean, they play three in August, but like late August. Right. So yeah, late August, August 24th, 25th, 26. So you go get your seven in April and then May, June, July, and majority of August, you've got to beat everyone else and then you get to face the Angels, or Dodgers again for nine in the last five weeks of the season. I love when the schedule maker, I think it's just an algorithm and not that old couple anymore, but I love when they do it like that. You see them in April? You've seen them September?

Keep it tight, Padres. Because it's always like, you know what? But we were a different team then. We didn't even have blah, blah, blah, blah. It wasn't matter, yeah. Yeah, yeah. I love when they do that. Oh, man.

Treve. What's your ceiling? Trev. Do you think they can take the division from the Dodgers? Yes. There's a ceiling there, yes. Yes. Okay. Floor. Second. Second in the West. No one's going to steal that from him. I think there's like little stairs leading up to the, I don't know. I don't see a way they finish below second place. What was that little stairs analogy? Like there's a little entry where the giants can sneak past them.

Really? No, there's not. A lot would actually. It's like a fire escape on the other. No, look, they're going to be competing with the Dodgers for the division. I don't want, Pardis fans are going to come at me, man. But I'm just looking back and just seeing how many career years and young guys that had to step up last year. And like you said, Jim, there was like this catastrophic national moment with Fernando Tati's Jr.

in the middle of the season that propelled them to a bunch of victories. I know they got better, a lot better in the starting pitching position. I'm a little, I'm not as high on these guys as I thought I was going to be. How about that? Okay. I still very high on them. They're a very good team, Padres fans. This is incredible.

You're going to have a great year. My expectations are tempered a little bit right now. Wow. Okay. Yeah, I'm interested to see. I mean, I'll say they have on the other side of that, they can do a lot of things so well that I think that can just help out a team much more during a season.

Like, there's going to be days when they just pitch themselves to victory. You go Snell, Darvish, to the back guys in your bullpen, Pomeranz has been crazy lights out since he's gone to the pen. You know, there's days when that'll be a lot. it. Like when you Darvish is right, you're not scoring. What do you? I have a really obnoxious question. Okay. Perfect. Ideal. What do you think it's going to be harder for the Padres, to win the World Series or to win the division? Oh, man. Skip Bayless. Do you get what I'm saying? Yeah. If they make it as a wild card and the Braves do their bidding for them in the DS,

they might have an easier route to the World Series than the division. who would they play? The Braves. Not the Dodgers. Let someone else be the Dodgers. If they won the division, they would play the Dodgers or whoever was the third place division team. Could they end up playing the Dodgers in a division or around?

They could, right? They could. Yeah. But there's also a chance another team plays Dodgers, and Dodgers are out, and then they're probably the favorite. It's a really obnoxious, annoying. Skip Bayless question. My mind doesn't work.

My mind doesn't work. I was getting it. I think it's going to be very, very hard for them to win the division. If they sneak in at the wild card, I think they have a shout at winning the World Series because someone else can beat the Dodgers first. I was giving a passionate speech about how they could win with pitching offense or defense. I am now over that as well. Trev, I'll have the San Diego crazies come at me a little bit, too. I think the Dodgers have the division.

Man, I know baseball a lot can happen. And for this team to take over the Dodgers, a lot has to go wrong for the Dodgers. And, like, Tatis has to be the MVP this year, which he can. But he's still got to do it for a buck 50, a buck 62. And now he's getting Tommy John. Hey, Jimmy. According to Phil Hughes.

Jimmy. Who said. What? Phil tweeted, I hope Tatis doesn't need Tommy John. So. Okay. Well. I hope so, too.

Phil. That's tough. so much so I don't love you Phil love you Phil I also hope he doesn't have Tommy Don't you gotta get him on soon um I don't know man I just think I just think it's kind of the wrong time

for them that Dodgers team is a behemoth they added power not yet not yet not yet not yet not yet um and that's hey that's where things get scary I mean if this team does find them in a one game wild card which is currently the playoffs

uh set up we'll see if they change it right before the season. You know, you're in one game. Who are you going to face? Do you get the Mets and DeGrom? You know, like, that's where things could get scary with this Padres team. And, Jim, you were kind of on this early, I think too early, but there's a world where things start to go against this Padres team.

They're the new team. They're the home run guys. Tatis is sexy. If, you know, if they're trailing the Dodgers by five, six, seven, eight games, and then you're in a one-game playoff with it all on the line, and does Snell want the ball? Does Darvish get the... I don't know.

There's a world where these fun San Diego fathers lose a little bit of their shine, and, hey... I actually think adding Darvish and Snell help counteract that turn a lot because those guys are so likable. Okay. If they added Bauer, then they'd be their way. A little more polarizing.

So, hey, Padres fans, here's how I'll try to bring you back. Man, shove it in my face. Let Tatease be the future. Let him be the next Griffey. Let this team be star-set. I love Machado. I really do. Like, emotional, sexual.

And, hey, maybe Snell's out from Tampa. He's pitching seven every start. Just pumping it. He gets to face the pitcher now. So I don't know. Padres, prove me wrong. the Padres and Dodgers the best rivalry in baseball this year. That's what I was saying.

Max's fun stat is that shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. ranked in the top two in baseball on average exit velocity on both ground balls and fly balls and line drives in 2020. Christian Yelich and Miguel Suno were the only other players to be in the top 10 for both. Tatis Jr. also led baseball with 102 hard hit balls and with 32 barrels. It's different. Hits the ball hard. draft king's has the over under at 94 and a half that's a good line

that's a moray I just I just snuck ahead and looked at the Dodgers line it's at 101.5 yeah so you gotta like I'm thinking like if I if you want to take the Dodgers over can you take the Padre's over can they both do it I don't know man

that's so many wins for both teams, to be honest with you. I know how good the Dodgers are, but... I think... It's a tough one for me. I'll let you guys go first. The words of the late-crape, Bear Bryant, roll-tied. Give me the over, man.

Yeah, I'll take the over as well. Give me the over. I didn't know where you were going with that. The rest of that division stinks. Stanks. Like, I don't want to give away my Dodgers pick either, but, I mean, I think those teams are going to rack up dubs. because of my wax poetic on the pitching,

the defense, and the home runs that. This team's really good. I know they are. They're really, really good. You want me to go through game by game? Game one. Every game. Debacks, they're winning it.

Win. Darvish's debut. Especially gallons out. Yeah. Yeah, no kidding. Shoot, man. I like a lot of guys in this team. I want to root for them.

We've been, we've been. We've been agreeing too much lately, so I'll play devil's advocate here, and I'll go under here. Just under. 94 wins. San Diego Padres come in at the end of the 2021 season.

I don't hate that. Give me the hook. I've heard that a few times. This team isn't going to lose a single game on a Sunday. All right, one more left. Over under. I said over. An MVP touch.

Tice? He's getting Tommy John. Who's that better tacos? L.A. or San Diego? San Diego. Closer to Mexico.